Florida & Metro Forecast 2010-2013 Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida Published March 2010
Mar 10, 2016
Florida & Metro Forecast2010-2013
I n s t i t u t e f o r E c o n o m i c C o m p e t i t i v e n e s s
C o l l e g e o f B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n
U n i v e r s i t y o f C e n t r a l F l o r i d a
P u b l i s h e d M a r c h 2 0 1 0
T h e C o l l e g e o f B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n
a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n
a n d g o a l s i n p r o v i d i n g i n t e l l e c t u a l
l e a d e r s h i p t h r o u g h r e s e a r c h , t e a c h i n g ,
a n d s e r v i c e . T h e c o l l e g e i s s t r i v i n g
t o e n h a n c e g r a d u a t e p r o g r a m s , w h i l e
m a i n t a i n i n g t h e s t r o n g u n d e r g r a d u a t e
b a s e . T h e c o l l e g e d e l i v e r s r e s e a r c h a n d
q u a l i t y b u s i n e s s e d u c a t i o n p r o g r a m s a t
t h e u n d e r g r a d u a t e , m a s t e r s , d o c t o r a l ,
a n d e x e c u t i v e l e v e l s t o c i t i z e n s o f t h e
s t a t e o f F l o r i d a a n d t o s e l e c t c l i e n t e l e
n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.
M E s s A g E F r o M D E A n T h o M A s L . K E o n
Ah, it’s finally springtime in Florida! Our weather was cooler than usual this year and some parts of northern Florida even saw snow! When Florida has cold temperatures, it often affects the rest of the country – just look at the price of tomatoes last month.
But all that is behind us now.
The weather has changed…the season has changed…and so have our clocks. And just like our clocks, it’s time to move forward.
As we move forward, we can finally do so with a bit of optimism. It appears Florida’s economy is slowly starting to recover from the recession. We still have a long way to go, but we are on our way. It may be a tough road, but we really do have much to look forward to. We just have to remain patient.
In the meantime, Florida has a lot offer this time of year. I hope you are able to get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather. I encourage you to take advantage of the beaches, the theme parks and all the other attractions.
Enjoy your spring and I look forward to addressing you in the summer. I hope the news will be even better by then!
Sincerely,
Thomas L. KeonDean
T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f C e n t r a l F l o r i d a i s
a p u b l i c , m u l t i - c a m p u s , m e t r o p o l i t a n
r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o
s e r v i n g i t s s u r r o u n d i n g c o m m u n i t i e s
w i t h t h e i r d i v e r s e a n d e x p a n d i n g
p o p u l a t i o n s , t e c h n o l o g i c a l c o r r i d o r s ,
a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l p a r t n e r s . T h e m i s s i o n
o f t h e u n i v e r s i t y i s t o o f f e r h i g h - q u a l i t y
u n d e r g r a d u a t e a n d g r a d u a t e e d u c a t i o n ,
s t u d e n t d e v e l o p m e n t , a n d c o n t i n u i n g
e d u c a t i o n ; t o c o n d u c t r e s e a r c h a n d
c r e a t i v e a c t i v i t i e s ; a n d t o p r o v i d e
s e r v i c e s t h a t e n h a n c e t h e i n t e l l e c t u a l ,
c u l t u r a l , e n v i r o n m e n t a l , a n d e c o n o m i c
d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n r e g i o n ,
a d d r e s s n a t i o n a l a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l i s s u e s
i n k e y a r e a s , e s t a b l i s h U C F a s a m a j o r
p r e s e n c e , a n d c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e g l o b a l
c o m m u n i t y.
A B o U T U n I v E r s I T y o F C E n T r A L F L o r I D A ( U C F )
A B o U T T h E C o L L E g E o F B U s I n E s s A D M I n I s T r AT I o n
Thomas L. Keon
2010 - 2013
M a r c h 2 0 1 0 R e p o r t
I n s t i t u t e f o r E c o n o m i c C o m p e t i t i v e n e s s
C o l l e g e o f B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n
U n i v e r s i t y o f C e n t r a l F l o r i d a
Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida
Copyright © 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.
This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.
Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff:
Dr. Sean Snaith, Director
Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant
Laura Burkstrand, Researcher
Erin Garlow, Researcher
Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher
McGregor Love, Researcher
Evgenia Volkonitskaya, Researcher
Florida Forecast
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Florida Highlights and summary ....................... 5-10
Florida Forecast tables ..................................... 12-17
Florida Forecast charts ..................................... 19-26
Florida News summaries ...................................... 27
deltona-daytona Beach-ormond Beach ......... 29-33
Gainesville ........................................................ 34-38
Jacksonville ...................................................... 39-43
lakeland ........................................................... 44-48
Miami-Fort lauderdale-Miami Beach .............. 49-53
Naples-Marco island ........................................ 54-58
ocala ................................................................ 59-63
orlando-Kissimmee ......................................... 64-68
Palm Bay-Melbourne-titusville ........................ 69-73
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent ............................. 74-78
tallahassee ....................................................... 79-83
tampa-st. Petersburg-clearwater ................... 84-88
industry location Quotient .................................... 89
F l o r I d A s U m m A r y
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 5
• 2010marksthestartofFlorida’slongclimboutofrecession.Inthefirstyeartheeconomywillnothavelift.Callitthe“unleavenedrecovery.”
• Thelabormarketwillremainasorespot.Unemploymentwillstayabove12%forallof2010andwillnotfallbelow10%untilthe2ndquarterof2012.
• PayrollemploymentinFloridawillwafflein2010astemporaryhiringforthe2010Censusgiveth,thentakethawaypayrolljobs.
• Forthefirstyearsince2006,payrollemploymentwillendtheyearatahighermarkthanwhereitbegan.
• Payrolljobgrowthyearoveryearisexpectedtoaverage1.4%in2011,3.4%in2012,and3.6%in2013.It will be 2014 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels.
• FlippingisbackinvogueinFlorida’shousingmarket,butyouwillneedamortician’slicensetohandletheseproperties.
• 2010willbeanotherdifficultyearforthehousingmarket,thoughtheworstmaybeover.Asidefromthecashmarketforforeclosuresandthefirsttimehomebuyermarket,housingremainsalanguishingpartofFlorida’seconomy.
• Unemploymentratesarealreadyabove12%butwillstabilizeinthemiddleof2010,withaverageunemploymentpeakingat12.2%.Unemploymentwillstayabove10%throughthe1stquarterof2012andwillthenstartaslowdecline,reaching7.9%bytheendof2013.
• Thesectorsforecastedtohavethestrongestgrowthduring2010-2013areProfessionalandBusinessServices(6.2%),Manufacturing(1.9%),andEducationandHealthServices(1.9%).
• Florida’spopulationisexpectedtostagnateagainin2010andwillstayrelativelyflatin2011beforein-migrationpicksupandpopulationgrowthslowlyclimbsto1.5%in2013.
• Florida’shousingconstructionsectorbottomedoutin2009.Housingstartswillclimboverthenextseveralyears.In2013,housingstartswillrecoverto2001levels,risinggraduallyto167,400starts.
• Aftertwoyearsofcontracting,realGrossStateProduct(GSP)willexpand2.1%in2010and2.5%in2011beforeacceleratingto4.5%in2012,andeasingslightlyto4.0%in2013.The2010-13averagegrowthratewillbe3.3%.
• Realpersonalincomegrowthcontractedsharplyin2008and2009,butgrowthwillbegintoacceleratein2010to3.5%.From2011-2013,personalincomegrowthwillaverage3.6%andwillpeakat4.2%in2013.
• During2010-2013,retailsaleswillsteadilyaccelerateafterastutteringfirsthalfof2010.Saleswillgrowatanaveragepaceof5.3%asconsumerspendingfinallyreturns.
H I g H l I g H T s o F T H E F l o r I d A F o r E C A s T 2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 3
F l o r I d A s U m m A r y
6 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
Flo r I dA’ s U n lE AvE n E d r ECovE ry
TH E r ECE ss Io n I s F I nAlly ovE r B UT TH E ECo n o m y sTI ll
HA s n o r E Al l I F T
FlorIdA’s EConomy
Springhasarrivedanditisatimeofrebirth,atimefornewgrowth.Thewinterhaspassed,anditwasalongcoldonebyFlorida’sstandards,thoughfriendsandfamilyinthenorthshowverylittlesympathy.
Florida’seconomyhasalsoemergedfromalong,difficultrecessionandhasatlonglastenteredtherecoveryphaseofthiscycle.ThetransitionfromrecessiontorecoveryinFloridahasnotbeensublime,tosaytheleast.
Florida’seconomywillbegintogrowthisquarterasmeasuredbyrealGrossStateProduct.Aftermorethantwoyearsofshrinking,thisisalongawaitedoccurrence.However,therecoverywillnotbearobustone,andbythe4thquarterof2010theeconomyisexpectedtobejust1.8%largerthanitwasinthe4thquarterof2009.
Florida’srecoverysimplydoesn’thavetheyeastthathasbeenaningredientinpreviousrecoveries.Populationgrowthhasstagnated,albeittemporarily.Theconstructionsectorcontinuestoprofuselybleedjobs,withemploymentdownnearly17%fromayearago.Thatsteepdropisontopofanequallysteepdeclineayearearlier.
Westillhavetheplagueofthehousingbusttodealwithandthebitterherbsofthelabormarkettoremindusoftherecession.Recentdataonthelabormarketshowacontinuedriseinthestate’sunemploymentratetoalevelnowinexcessof12%,whereitwillremainthroughout2010.
Consequently,therecoverywillbeflat,atleastinitsfirstyear.Therecessionmayhavepassedover,butfornowwhatwehaveinitsplaceisanunleavenedrecovery.
FlorIdA’s HoUsIng mArkETHousing starts and Existing sales Continue to rise Flipping makes a limited return Engagement
Housingstartsfinallyhitthebottomin2009.Itwasalong,longwaydownforhousingstarts.Thelowpointforstartsin2009wasjustunder13%ofthepeaklevelseenin2005—an87%declineinconstructionofnewsingleandmultifamilyhousing.Thisprolificdeclineinbuildinghaddevastatingandlonglastingconsequencesforemploymentinthehousingconstructionsector.
Startswillrisein2010,butonlybyasmallincrement—lessthantwelvethousandadditionalsingleandmulti-familystartscombined.Thisgrowthiswelcomed,butwillnotbesufficienttoendthelossofjobsintheConstructionsector,ascommercialconstructionhasentereditsownlittlecornerofHell.
Mortgageratesremainlow,butunfortunatelymanypeopleareunabletogetloans.Refinancingisanearimpossibilityforthosewhohaveseentheirhome’svalueplummetoverthepastseveral
F l o r I d A s U m m A r y
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 7
yearsandmanynewmortgageborrowersarealsofacingdifficultcreditconditions.Thelowendofthehousingspectrumisbenefittingfromtheselowmortgagerates,availablecreditintheformofFHAbackedloans,andtheextensionofthefirsttimehomebuyers’credit,nowsettoexpireattheendofApril.
TheFederalReserveBankiswrappingupitssupportofthemortgage-backedsecuritiesmarket,whichmayputsomeupwardpressureonmortgagerates.Ratesare,unfortunately,theleastoftheproblemsinhousingfinance.
Onceyougetoutsideoftheentryhomesegmentofthehousingmarket,creditavailabilityremainsfairlygrim.Creditisstillexceedinglytightforthemiddleandhighendhousingmarkets,andasaresult,thesemarketsegmentscontinuetolanguish.
Whenyoumixtightcreditconditionswithhigh,persistentunemploymentandFlorida’spopulationstagnation,youendupwitharecipeforthecontinuationofastrugglinghousingmarket.
Figures1and2displaydatafromthehousingmarketforexistinghomesasreleasedbytheFloridaAssociationofRealtors(FAR),andcoverthehousingmarketthroughJanuary2010.Sales(Figure1)havecontinuedtoreboundnicely,butmedianprices(Figure2)arestillsearchingforafirmbottomtotheirsteepdecline.
Priceswilllikelycontinuetofallashousinginventoriesremainelevatedacrossthestate,additionalforeclosureactivitycontinuestoaddtothesurplus,andpotentialbuyerscontinuetofacedifficultyingettingloans.
Thesteepdropinpriceshasstimulatedsales.The12-monthmovingaverage(thesmootherofthetwolinesplottedinFigure1)ofexistinghomesalesinFloridahasbeenbolsteredtolevelsconsistentwithFlorida’spre-housingboomlevels.
Thelargenumberofforeclosureshasledtoaresurgenceofanactivitythatatonetimehelpedfuelthehousingboom:theflippingofrealestate.
Buyersarescoopinguppropertiesatcourthousesaroundthestate,andinmostcasesaresellingthemataprofitinafewweekstime,atpricesthatarejustafractionofwhatthesepropertiessoldforjustafewyearsago.Mostofthefinalbuyersarecashbuyers,andmanyareforeignnationals.
Pricesaretryingtofindabottom,andthe12-monthmovingaverageofthemediansalespricecontinuestofall.InJanuary,thatmedianpricefell$9,500to$130,900.ThelasttimeFlorida’shousingmarketexperiencedmedianpricesthislowwasinJanuaryof2002.
Figure 1. Housing sales FAr data
Figure 2. median Housing Prices FAr data
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DataSource:FloridaRealtors0
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F l o r I d A s U m m A r y
8 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
oUTlook For FlorIdA 2010-2013
gross sTATE ProdUCTFlorida’s Economy is Expanding Again
RealGrossStateProduct(GSP)inFlorida,thestate-levelanaloguetorealGDP,andalsocalledstateGDP,willfinallyseeannualgrowthin2010,commencinginthe1stquarteroftheyear.TheshapeoftherecoveryinFloridawillalsoresemblethe“GravyBoat”pathofthenationaleconomy,whichwehavediscussedinpreviousU.S.Forecastpublications.Growthwillbemutedinthefirsttwoyearsofrecovery,asFlorida’sGSPexpandsatanaveragerateof2.3%over2010-2011.Thingswillbegintoacceleratein2012-2013,overwhichgrowthwillaverageabeefier4.2%.
NominalGrossStateProductisexpectedtoreachnearly$880billionin2013,asFloridacontinuestomarchinexorablytowardbecomingatrillion-dollareconomy,athresholdthathadbeengettingpushedfurtherintothefuturebythelong,deeprecessionandgravyboatrecovery.WestillareforecastingGSPtofinallybreakthetrillion-dollarmarkin2017.
Whetheritistoday’seconomyofnearly¾ofatrilliondollars,orthetrilliondollareconomythatFloridawilleventuallybecome,thesunshinestateisstilloneoftheworld’slargesteconomies.
PErsonAl InComE, rETAIl sAlEs, And AUTo sAlEs
Personalincomegrowthwillresumein2010withahealthy5.1%surge,beforeeasingslightlyto4.3%in2012,andthenacceleratingagainin2012-2013.Inthelasttwoyearsofthisforecasthorizonweexpectpersonalincomegrowthtoaverageahealthy5.6%.Thisprojectedgrowthliesrightinthemiddleoftherangeofgrowthrates
experiencedoverthislastcyclethatrangedfromtheChina-likegrowthratesin2004-2005,tothecontractionin2009.
Realdisposableincomegrowth,whichhadbeendepressedbytheflounderingeconomy,willfinallyshowsomegrowthin2010,expandingat3.3%.Thestrongergrowthwillbeshort-lived,astaxhikesatthefederalandstatelevelswillbegintochipawayatdisposableincomesinthestate.During2011-2013realdisposableincomewillincreasebyanaveragerateof2.4%eachyear.Thatcomparestotheaveragerateofgrowthduringthefirstsevenyearsofthenewdecade,priortotherecession,whentheaveragerateofgrowthforrealdisposableincomestoodat4.8%.
Thereremainssignificantuncertaintyintheoutlookfordisposableincome,specificallyasitrelatestofuturetaxratesatboththefederal,state,andlocallevels.Itispossible,perhapsevenlikely,thatfuturetaxhikeswillleadtoanevenhigherchunkofincomegoingtothegovernmentthanwearecurrentlyassuming.Hopefully,fiscalsanityorelectionswillchecksomeoftherecklessspending,particularlyatthefederallevel.
ConsumersinFloridahavebeenbeleaguered,muchmoresothantheircounterpartsaroundthecountry,bydisappearinghomeequityandanevaporationofstockmarketwealth.Thestockmarkethasmadeastrongrecoveryfromthedepthsofdespairatwhichitwallowedalittlemorethanayearago.However,thatrecoveryisstillwellbelowthepre-crisislevels.ThehousingmarketinFloridahashadnosuchrunofluck,andthehomeequitythathasbeenlostoverthepastseveralyearsmaytakedecadestoberecouped.
Theholidayshoppingseasonwasaretailsalessuccessbyvirtueofitscomparisontothe4thquarterof2008,whichwasacatastrophicdropinretailspending.However,thisisnotsayingmuch.Inanabsolutesense,itwasyetanotherhorribleseasonforretail.
F l o r I d A s U m m A r y
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 9
Doubledigitunemploymentwillweighonconsumerspending,butasthelabormarketstabilizes,itwillhelpbolsterconsumerconfidence.Pent-updemandandaclearersensethattheirjobsaresafewillhelpunlocksomeoftheconsumerspendingthatjobinsecurityinhibited.
RetailsalesinFloridawillgrowslightlyinthefirsthalfof2010.Oncethelabormarkethasfullystabilizedandbeginsitslongpathtorecoveryafterthe2ndquarterof2010,retailspendingwillbegintoaccelerate.Weexpectretailsalestoexpandfromthe3rdquarterof2010goingforwardthroughtheendofourforecasthorizon.Theaveragequarterlygrowthratewillbenearly5.7%overthistimeframe.Retailsaleswillreachtheirpre-recessionpeakinthe4thquarterof2011.
Therecession,creditcrunch,volatileenergyprices,andacollapsingdomesticautomotiveindustrydidconspiretobringaveragenewpassengercarandtruckregistrationsdownoverallin2009forafourthstraightyear.Registrationswillbegintoclimbonceagainin2010,butwillnotreachthe“cashforclunkers”levelsuntilthe3rdquarterof2010.Consumershavebeennursingoldercarsalong,andasthesamedriversofoverallretailsalesbegintogel,salesofnewpassengervehiclesandlighttrucksshouldsurgeandcontinuetogrowatadoubledigitrateuntilthemiddleof2013,whenregistrationswilldecelerate.
EmPloymEnTOverallpayrollemploymentgrowthinthestate
isexpectedtoshrinkby4.6%for2009versusayearago.Thiscomesaftercontractingata-3.2%ratein2008comparedto2007.
JoblossesinFloridawillpersistthroughthe1stquarterof2010.Eventhoughpayrollswillbegintogrowin2010,theaveragelevelofemploymentin2010willstillbebelowtheaveragefor2009.Whilepayrollgrowthwillfinallytakerootin2010,itwillonlygainmomentumin2011,ayear
whenjobgrowthversusayearagoisexpectedtocomeinat1.4%.Payrolljobgrowthwillreach3.4%in2012beforeacceleratingto3.6%in2013.Despitetheaccelerationofjobgrowthit will still be 2014 before payroll employment levels return to their pre-recession peak.
TheConstructionsector,whichhasbeeninnearfreefallafterpeakingduringthehousingboom,willcontinuetoshowthepainfuleffectsofapitifulhousingmarket,thecreditfreeze,andanemergingcrisisinthecommercialconstructionmarket.Anyjobcreationfromtheshovel-readyprojectsthatwillbefundedbythefederaleconomicstimulusplanwillhelpresurrectsomejobsinthissector.Weexpectthatitwillbemid-2011beforethissectorstartstoaddjobsonceagain.
Thebottomoftheresidentialrealestatemarketwillgivewaytotepidgrowthinhousingstarts,butitwillnotbeenoughtohaveamajorimpactonemploymentinthissector.Despitetheeconomicstimulusbill,thissectorwillcontinuetobetheworst-performingsectorinthestate’seconomyonaveragethrough2013,asfarasjobgrowthisconcerned.Cumulativejoblossesinthesectorhavebeencatastrophic.Itwilllikelybe18-20 yearsbeforetheConstructionsectorhaspayrollemploymentlevelsbackatthepre-recessionpeakshitin2006.
JobgrowthwillnotreturntotheConstructionsectoruntilthe2ndquarterof2011.Growthratesareexpectedtosurgeto7.4%in2012and9.1%in2013whenthecommercialsectorwillalsobeinrecovery,thefullforceofthestimulusspendingisfelt,andtheeconomicrecoveryexpansionisinfullswing.
Thisrecessionhasseenjoblossesthathavetranscendedvirtuallyallsectorsoftheeconomy.ManywhitecollarjoblossesarereflectedintheperformanceoftheProfessionalandBusinessServicessector.NowthatFlorida’seconomyhasexitedtherecession,andafteraslowfirst
F l o r I d A s U m m A r y
10 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
fewquartersofrecovery,thissectorwillonceagainshowrobustgrowthinFlorida.Jobgainsacceleratefromthatpointandriseto6.3%in2011,8.2%in2012,and8.3%in2013.Thissectorwillrecovermorequicklythanothers,andwillgetbacktopre-recessionlevelsofemploymentinthemiddleof2012.
TheInformationsectorwillcontinuetoshedjobsthroughthemiddleof2010.Newspaperscontinuetostruggleamidstthestructuralchangegrippingtheindustry.Advertisingrevenueshavefallenoffdramatically,thanksinlargeparttotheongoingwoesoftheautomotiveindustry,andseveralmajornewspapersandpublishinggroupsareteeteringontheedgeofbankruptcy.AlloftheseoutletsarestilltryingtofigureoutamodelthatwillworkintheInternetAge,andmostmodelsnowhavejournalistsmulti-taskingandfeatureacombinationofprint,Internet,andInternet2.0.Advertisingviaabanneradonawebsitesimplydoesnotbringinthelevelofrevenuethatfullpageprintadsdo.Unfortunately,circulationisshrinkingasmoreandmorepeoplegetinformationviatheweb,Facebook,orTwitter.
Meagerjobgrowthwillreturninthesecondhalfof2010.2011willbethefirstfullyearofjobgrowthinthissectorafternineofthetenprioryearsyieldedjoblosses,includingfivestraightyearsofjoblossesleadingupto2011.Jobgrowthwilljumpto3.0%in2011andmoreorlessstabilizearound2.2%in2012-2013.
TheonesectorthatcontinuedtocreatejobsduringtherecessionandthatisexpectedtocontinuetoexpandthroughtheendofourforecasthorizonistheHealthandEducationsector.During2010-2013,employmentinthissectorisexpectedtoexpandatanaveragerateof1.9%.Theaveragegrowthrateforoverallpayrollemploymentduringthesametimeframeisexpectedtobe1.8%.
ItisstilldifficulttotellexactlyhowhealthcarereformwillmanifestitselfinFlorida,butclearly,withexpandedcoverageandanagingpopulationinFlorida,itappearsthatdemandforhealthserviceswillremainstrongintheforeseeablefuture.Thisrisingdemandshouldcontinuetodrivejobgrowthinthissector.ThepossibilityofMedicarecuts,however,doesraiseaspecterofconcernaboutthissector’sfutureinFlorida.
ManufacturingwillcontinuetocontractinFloridathroughthe2ndquarterof2010.Globalizationandproductivitygainsinmanufacturinghavecombinedtoseverelyreduceemploymentinthissector.Thissectorisemergingfromanextremelychallengingperiodleanerthaniteverhasbeen,andascompetitiveasithasbeeninmanyyears.Thiswillhelpdrivejobgrowthasexportscontinuetorise.
Weareexpectingtoseejobgrowthof3.3%inthissectorforthefullyearin2011,followedbyanevenstrongeryearofjobgrowthin2012,whenmanufacturingemploymentwillexpandatarateof5.0%.Forthefirsttimeindecades,manufacturingisexpectedtogainjobsinthreeconsecutiveyears,as2013jobgrowthisexpectedtobe3.8%.
UnEmPloymEnTUnemploymentratesintheFloridahavesurged
fromrecordlowlevelsofjust3.4%in2006togreaterthan12%atpresent.Robustgrowthhadsharplyandquicklyratcheteddowntheunemploymentrate,andwhenthatgrowthfaded,theunemploymentratebegantosoar.
Florida’sunemploymentrate,oncemorethanafullpercentagepointbelowthehistoricallylownationalunemploymentrate,nowhasrisenabovetheneardoubledigitrateofnationalunemployment.Bothwillpeakin2010,andboth
F l o r I d A s U m m A r y
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 11
willbeslowtodecline.ModerategrowthwillchipawayatFlorida’sunemploymentratebutcannotratchetitdowndramatically.
Howhighwillunemploymentget?Weareexpectingunemploymenttoaverage12.2%inthe3rdquarterof2010andremain above 10% until the 2nd quarter of 2012.Thereafter,unemploymentwillbeginaslowdeclinethroughtheendof2013.Bytheendofthatyearunemploymentwillstillbeuncomfortablyhigh,at7.9%.
Theproblemofunderemploymentandmarginallyattachedworkers–thosewhoareneitherworkingnorlookingforwork,butindicatethattheywantandareavailableforajob,andhavelookedforworksometimeinthepast12months—andthosewhohavegivenupsearchingforajob,issubstantialandwillbeafactorbehindthepersistentlyhighunemploymentrate.Whenaddingtheseworkerstothetoplevelunemploymentfigure,thisbroadermeasureofunemploymentpaintsagrimmerpictureoflabormarkets,andisover18%inFloridaaccordingtotheBureauofLaborStatistics.
F l o r I d A s U m m A r y TA B l E s
12 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Personal Income (Bil. $) 508.4 531.2 582.8 633.2 690.3 713.5 719.7 703.3 739.1 770.7 813.0 860.0Florida (%Ch Year ago) 4.3 4.5 9.7 8.7 9.0 3.4 0.9 -2.3 5.1 4.3 5.5 5.8U.S. (%Ch Year ago) 2.0 3.5 6.0 5.5 7.5 5.6 2.9 -1.4 3.8 4.1 5.2 5.3Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) 492.2 504.0 538.8 568.4 603.1 607.2 592.6 578.0 597.9 614.4 638.3 665.1Florida (%Ch Year ago) 2.9 2.4 6.9 5.5 6.1 0.7 -2.4 -2.5 3.5 2.8 3.9 4.2U.S. (%Ch Year ago) 3.8 2.5 10.1 4.3 7.6 -4.2 0.1 -4.3 5.0 5.7 5.7 5.8Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) 441.7 459.0 487.9 506.9 537.3 537.5 531.1 532.5 549.9 560.1 575.4 590.1Florida (%Ch Year ago) 5.2 3.9 6.3 3.9 6.0 0.1 -1.2 0.3 3.3 1.9 2.7 2.6U.S. (%Ch Year ago) 3.3 2.5 3.4 1.3 4.0 2.2 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.6 2.5 2.2GSP (Bil. $) 522.7 559.0 607.3 670.0 721.4 741.9 744.1 727.6 750.9 781.7 828.6 877.4(%Ch Year ago) 5.1 6.9 8.6 10.3 7.7 2.8 0.3 -2.2 3.2 4.1 6.0 5.9GSP (Bil. 2000$) 497.3 520.4 548.6 589.3 613.6 613.4 603.5 583.5 596.1 610.9 638.1 663.6(%Ch Year ago) 2.6 4.6 5.4 7.4 4.1 0.0 -1.6 -3.3 2.1 2.5 4.5 4.0
Employment 0.5 1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 -0.7 -4.7 -2.6 1.3 3.0 3.2Labor Force 1.6 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.2 1.6 -0.1 -0.9 0.4 1.2 1.7FL Unemployment Rate (%) 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.4 4.1 6.2 10.5 12.1 11.2 9.7 8.3U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8 9.3 10.0 9.6 8.5 7.6
Total nonfarm U.S. -1.1 -0.3 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.1 -0.6 -4.3 -0.9 1.4 2.9 2.5 Florida 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.0 2.6 0.2 -3.2 -4.6 -1.1 1.4 3.4 3.6Mining -10.3 -1.2 0.2 -0.8 -6.5 1.6 -5.2 -3.4 -7.4 -1.5 0.1 -0.1Construction 1.1 3.8 9.4 11.4 7.2 -8.8 -17.1 -16.5 -10.3 -0.3 7.4 9.1Manufacturing -5.8 -4.2 0.2 1.2 0.2 -4.2 -6.6 -10.8 -4.5 3.3 5.0 3.8Nondurable Goods -3.6 -3.3 -2.1 -1.8 -2.0 -1.5 -6.3 -10.7 -3.9 -0.4 0.6 -0.4Durable Goods -7.0 -4.7 1.4 2.6 1.3 -5.4 -6.8 -10.8 -4.8 5.2 7.0 5.6Trans. Warehs. & Utility -2.8 -3.2 1.6 3.8 1.5 0.1 -2.8 -5.3 -5.1 2.3 5.7 4.2Wholesale Trade -0.2 0.5 3.4 4.1 2.9 1.5 -2.4 -3.4 -1.6 1.5 4.5 3.6Retail Trade -1.2 -0.2 2.7 4.1 2.0 0.5 -2.9 -5.7 -2.5 0.0 2.3 2.2Financial Activities 1.2 2.2 3.8 5.0 3.2 -1.0 -3.7 -4.5 -3.2 -0.4 2.6 1.7Prof. and Business Services 0.2 1.5 5.8 7.1 4.2 0.7 -5.3 -7.2 2.2 6.3 8.2 8.3Edu. & Health Services 2.7 3.7 3.0 2.5 2.7 3.1 2.3 1.1 1.8 1.9 2.4 1.6Leisure & Hospitality 0.4 1.8 4.4 2.7 1.5 2.0 -1.4 -3.3 0.5 0.3 1.3 2.6Information -5.7 -3.7 -2.1 0.2 -0.9 -0.3 -3.5 -6.6 -3.6 3.0 2.1 2.3Federal Gov't. 0.4 3.4 0.4 1.5 -0.8 0.2 1.3 -0.3 5.2 -5.5 -1.3 -0.5State & Local Gov't. 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.4 0.4 -0.7 -1.5 -1.0 1.1 2.4
Population (thous.) 16,715.9 17,035.6 17,426.5 17,814.9 18,104.7 18,293.3 18,436.1 18,554.2 18,529.0 18,616.4 18,824.7 19,107.3(%Ch Year ago) 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.6 -0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5Net Migration (thous.) 68.7 76.1 88.5 74.0 44.3 22.7 -19.8 -31.4 -27.8 19.2 46.9 60.9(%Ch Year ago) -1.1 11.9 18.6 -16.2 -41.8 -47.2 -194.9 -44.2 -73.8 200.3 204.6 30.3
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) 182.7 207.7 238.8 272.9 204.8 101.6 62.2 34.5 46.3 100.0 143.9 167.4Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) 133.6 159.9 183.1 211.6 156.3 74.8 42.0 27.1 38.1 86.9 121.7 134.4Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.) 49.1 47.9 55.6 61.3 48.5 26.8 20.2 7.4 8.2 13.1 22.3 33.0
(%Ch Year ago) 1.7 2.7 2.9 4.6 4.1 3.3 4.2 -0.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9
Housing
Consumer Prices
Personal Income and GSP
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)
NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago)
Population and Migration
F l o r I d A s U m m A r y TA B l E s
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 13
Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida*
2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2
Personal Income (Bil. $) 726.0 734.9 744.2 751.6 758.9 765.7 774.1 784.0 795.3 807.4 819.0 830.1 841.7 853.8Florida (%Ch Year ago) 3.8 4.7 5.9 6.0 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.7U.S. (%Ch Year ago) 3.3 3.5 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.3Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) 588.9 596.1 601.4 605.4 608.8 611.9 615.8 621.2 627.8 635.2 641.9 648.2 654.8 661.6Florida (%Ch Year ago) 1.7 2.9 4.4 4.8 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2U.S. (%Ch Year ago) 3.3 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.8Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) 541.8 548.3 553.5 556.1 554.3 557.6 561.6 566.9 567.7 573.6 578.1 582.4 583.4 586.9Florida (%Ch Year ago) 1.7 2.8 4.4 4.1 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.3U.S. (%Ch Year ago) 1.9 1.4 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.0GSP (Bil. $) 743.5 747.2 753.2 759.6 768.1 775.5 785.9 797.4 809.8 821.9 834.7 847.8 860.3 871.7(%Ch Year ago) 2.6 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.8 4.3 5.0 5.4 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.1GSP (Bil. 2000$) 593.2 594.4 596.9 599.7 603.4 607.2 613.1 620.0 627.0 634.4 641.8 649.3 655.0 660.9(%Ch Year ago) 2.0 2.4 2.4 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.4 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.2
Employment -4.0 -3.1 -2.2 -1.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3Labor Force -1.1 -1.0 -0.8 -0.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6FL Unemployment Rate (%) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.9 9.4 9.0 8.7 8.4U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.6
Total nonfarm U.S. -2.5 -1.0 -0.2 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.6 Florida -2.4 -1.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7Mining -7.3 -7.6 -8.0 -6.9 -3.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0Construction -11.1 -10.5 -12.0 -7.8 -5.1 -2.0 1.8 3.9 5.9 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.0 9.3Manufacturing -9.3 -5.7 -3.1 0.0 1.6 3.0 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.2Nondurable Goods -7.3 -4.2 -2.8 -1.3 -1.3 -0.8 -0.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.4Durable Goods -10.3 -6.5 -3.2 0.6 3.0 4.9 6.2 6.6 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.7 6.3 6.2Trans. Warehs. & Utility -6.3 -5.5 -4.6 -4.1 -1.1 1.3 3.8 5.2 6.1 6.0 5.5 5.2 4.8 4.4Wholesale Trade -2.1 -1.9 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 0.3 2.6 4.2 5.1 4.9 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7Retail Trade -4.3 -3.7 -1.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 1.6 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.2Financial Activities -4.7 -3.2 -2.3 -2.8 -2.0 -1.1 0.1 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.3 1.9Prof. and Business Services 0.1 1.2 3.4 3.9 5.3 5.8 6.7 7.4 7.5 8.2 8.6 8.4 8.7 8.6Edu & Health Services 0.8 2.1 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.6Leisure & Hospitality -1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.7 2.9 2.8Information -3.6 -5.5 -3.1 -2.1 0.2 4.1 4.4 3.2 2.6 1.9 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.3Federal Gov't. 0.6 13.0 5.7 1.5 -0.6 -12.1 -6.5 -2.6 -1.8 -1.3 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6State & Local Gov't. -1.2 -1.0 -1.8 -2.0 -1.7 -1.3 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.4
Population (thous.) 18,535.1 18,516.5 18,520.3 18,544.3 18,568.6 18,592.7 18,627.4 18,677.0 18,731.5 18,791.0 18,854.4 18,921.7 18,993.0 19,067.3(%Ch Year ago) 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5Net Migration (thous.) -79.0 -32.5 -10.0 10.2 10.4 10.2 20.8 35.6 40.5 45.3 49.1 52.9 56.8 59.6(%Ch Year ago) -434.7 -29.0 58.5 110.2 113.2 131.4 307.6 249.1 289.0 344.0 136.6 48.7 40.3 31.5
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) 35.2 39.2 48.1 62.9 77.7 93.2 108.2 120.8 129.6 139.8 149.9 156.5 161.0 166.0Housing Starts Single Family (thous 26.6 31.6 40.9 53.3 67.0 81.3 94.6 104.6 111.5 119.8 126.3 129.1 130.8 133.3Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.) 8.6 7.6 7.2 9.6 10.7 11.9 13.6 16.1 18.1 20.0 23.6 27.3 30.1 32.7
(%Ch Year ago) 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Personal Income and GSP
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)
Consumer Prices
Housing
Population and Migration
NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago)
F l o r I d A s U m m A r y TA B l E s
14 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
Table 3. Employment Quarterly*
2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2
Total Nonfarm 7,317.2 7,321.1 7,317.2 7,326.8 7,351.6 7,387.1 7,439.3 7,501.9 7,565.9 7,636.6 7,708.0 7,781.8 7,852.4 7,921.1
Manufacturing 316.8 316.1 316.5 319.3 321.8 325.5 329.6 334.1 338.6 341.9 346.0 349.6 353.2 356.3
Durable Goods 211.8 211.4 212.4 215.6 218.1 221.7 225.6 229.8 234.0 237.3 241.4 245.2 248.9 252.1
Wood Products 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.3 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.5 12.6
Computer & Electronics 43.1 43.7 44.6 45.1 45.0 44.6 44.4 44.4 44.2 43.8 44.4 44.8 45.6 45.8
Transportation Equipment 38.5 38.5 38.4 39.0 39.4 39.9 40.5 41.5 42.5 43.4 44.2 45.0 45.7 46.4
Nondurables 105.0 104.7 104.1 103.7 103.6 103.8 104.0 104.3 104.5 104.6 104.6 104.5 104.4 104.2
Foods 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.4
Non-Manufacturing 7,000.4 7,005.0 7,000.7 7,007.5 7,029.8 7,061.7 7,109.7 7,167.7 7,227.4 7,294.7 7,362.0 7,432.2 7,499.1 7,564.9
Mining 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
Construction 395.6 385.8 376.5 375.4 375.3 378.0 383.3 390.1 397.3 405.8 414.2 423.2 432.9 443.4
Trans. Warehs. & Utility 221.7 219.4 217.8 217.8 219.2 222.3 226.0 229.2 232.5 235.6 238.5 241.2 243.6 246.0
Wholesale Trade 333.0 332.0 329.8 328.7 329.1 333.1 338.4 342.3 345.9 349.3 352.3 356.1 359.5 362.2
Retail Trade 909.0 906.5 908.4 909.2 906.9 905.2 907.5 914.8 921.0 928.2 932.9 937.7 942.3 948.5
Information 142.3 138.6 139.0 140.7 142.5 144.3 145.1 145.1 146.3 147.0 147.5 148.2 149.4 150.3
Prof. & Business Services 1,072.0 1,080.5 1,090.0 1,107.8 1,128.7 1,143.1 1,162.7 1,190.2 1,213.6 1,237.2 1,262.9 1,290.2 1,318.6 1,343.6
Admin. & Support 550.9 562.3 572.4 587.6 605.9 615.9 630.8 652.6 671.1 690.2 710.8 732.6 754.5 773.6
Prof. Sci & Tech 438.1 434.4 433.1 435.1 437.3 441.1 445.5 450.7 455.0 459.0 463.5 468.4 474.5 479.9
Mgmt. of Co. 83.0 83.8 84.5 85.0 85.6 86.1 86.4 86.9 87.4 88.1 88.6 89.1 89.6 90.1
Financial Activities 491.6 488.8 486.0 481.5 481.7 483.2 486.3 489.5 492.6 495.9 499.5 502.4 504.1 505.3
Real Estate & Rent 163.4 162.5 161.5 160.6 161.5 162.6 163.9 165.4 166.7 168.0 169.4 170.3 171.1 171.8
Fin. & Insurance 328.1 326.3 324.5 320.8 320.1 320.7 322.4 324.1 325.9 327.9 330.1 332.1 333.0 333.5
Edu. & Health Service 1,071.1 1,074.5 1,080.8 1,083.6 1,085.3 1,093.0 1,103.2 1,109.6 1,115.5 1,121.9 1,127.2 1,131.9 1,134.7 1,139.7
Education Services 139.5 139.1 139.7 139.9 140.2 140.1 139.9 139.9 139.7 139.7 139.7 139.7 139.8 139.9
Health Services 931.6 935.4 941.0 943.7 945.1 952.9 963.3 969.7 975.8 982.2 987.5 992.2 994.9 999.8
Leisure & Hospitality 909.9 914.0 920.3 920.2 920.0 920.7 918.6 917.1 920.6 926.9 933.9 941.5 947.7 952.9
Other Services 334.0 334.2 336.1 336.9 338.5 338.7 339.0 339.6 340.0 340.2 341.0 342.0 342.8 343.2
Government 1,114.4 1,125.2 1,110.4 1,100.2 1,096.9 1,094.4 1,093.9 1,094.5 1,096.5 1,101.1 1,106.4 1,112.1 1,118.1 1,124.2
Federal Gov't. 130.2 146.1 136.7 130.7 129.4 128.4 127.8 127.4 127.0 126.7 126.5 126.3 126.1 126.0
State & Local Gov't. 984.2 979.1 973.6 969.5 967.5 966.0 966.1 967.1 969.4 974.4 980.0 985.8 991.9 998.2
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands)
F l o r I d A s U m m A r y TA B l E s
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 15
Table 4. Employment Annual
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Nonfarm 7,169.0 7,250.4 7,499.3 7,800.0 8,002.4 8,018.5 7,761.1 7,401.8 7,320.6 7420 7,673.1 7,949.2
Manufacturing 428.0 409.8 410.7 415.5 416.4 399.0 372.6 332.6 317.2 327.7 344.0 357.0
Durable Goods 283.4 270.0 273.8 281.0 284.6 269.2 250.9 224.0 212.8 223.8 239.5 252.9
Wood Products 18.0 17.8 20.3 22.4 21.6 17.0 12.8 9.4 9.3 10.6 12.0 12.6
Computer & Electronics 59.7 53.4 52.5 51.4 50.1 49.2 48.0 45.8 44.1 44.6 44.3 45.7
Transportation Equipment 44.9 43.7 44.4 45.6 45.7 44.6 42.5 39.9 38.6 40.3 43.8 46.6
Nondurables 144.6 139.8 136.9 134.5 131.8 129.8 121.7 108.7 104.4 103.9 104.6 104.1
Foods 25.7 25.6 25.4 32.3 31.2 31.3 29.5 27.0 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.4
Non-Manufacturing 7,092.2 7,329.1 7,592.3 7,384.6 7,586.0 7,619.5 7,388.5 7,069.2 7,014.6 7,109.1 7,347.2 7,610.8
Mining 5.6 5.6 5.6 7.1 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.2 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6
Construction 381.7 410.1 447.5 633.1 677.9 618.6 512.8 427.6 383.7 382.5 411.1 448.6
Trans. Warehs. & Utility 224.2 237.0 247.0 247.3 250.9 251.0 244.1 231.0 220.2 225.7 238.6 248.7
Wholesale Trade 335.7 350.9 363.4 341.4 351.4 356.7 348.1 336.3 331.0 335.9 351.1 363.6
Retail Trade 930.7 928.4 953.7 993.1 1,012.8 1,017.5 988.2 932.0 908.3 908.6 929.9 950.2
Information 172.8 166.3 162.9 163.2 161.7 161.3 155.6 145.3 140.1 144.3 147.3 150.6
Prof. & Business Services 1,004.9 1,020.3 1,079.5 1,155.5 1,203.6 1,211.9 1,147.5 1,064.7 1,087.6 1,156.2 1,251.0 1,354.5
Admin. & Support 557.2 563.6 600.5 646.7 672.8 670.8 610.9 547.6 568.3 626.3 701.2 781.4
Prof. Sci & Tech 376.8 384.9 404.0 431.2 451.5 460.1 454.8 437.0 435.2 443.7 461.5 482.8
Mgmt. of Co. 70.9 71.8 75.0 77.7 79.4 81.0 81.8 80.0 84.1 86.2 88.3 90.3
Financial Activities 481.1 491.8 510.4 535.8 552.6 547.2 526.9 503.3 486.9 485.2 497.6 506.2
Real Estate & Rent 154.5 157.7 166.5 176.6 182.4 178.1 173.2 168.0 162.0 163.4 168.6 172.3
Fin. & Insurance 326.6 334.1 343.9 359.1 370.2 369.2 353.7 335.3 324.9 321.8 329.0 333.9
Edu. & Health Service 884.9 917.5 944.7 967.8 993.6 1,024.1 1,047.3 1,058.9 1,077.5 1,097.8 1,124.1 1,141.9
Education Services 101.5 110.0 118.7 124.6 128.3 134.1 137.9 137.3 139.6 140.0 139.7 139.9
Health Services 783.3 807.5 826.0 843.3 865.3 890.0 909.4 921.6 937.9 957.8 984.4 1,002.1
Leisure & Hospitality 846.4 862.0 899.9 924.3 937.7 956.4 942.9 911.5 916.1 919.1 930.7 954.8
Other Services 315.3 322.3 329.4 334.9 338.0 345.6 340.7 331.4 335.3 339.0 340.8 343.6
Government 1,039.2 1,053.0 1,066.3 1,081.1 1,099.1 1,122.6 1,128.1 1,120.9 1,112.6 1,094.9 1,104.0 1,126.8
Federal Gov't. 122.2 126.3 126.8 128.7 127.7 128.0 129.6 129.2 135.9 128.3 126.6 126.0
State & Local Gov't. 917.0 926.8 939.5 952.4 971.4 994.6 998.4 991.6 976.6 966.7 977.4 1,000.8
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands)
F l o r I d A s U m m A r y TA B l E s
16 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*
2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2
Personal Income 725.95 734.90 744.16 751.58 758.93 765.71 774.12 783.95 795.30 807.41 818.98 830.13 841.71 853.83
Wages & Salaries 327.66 330.67 333.61 336.10 339.14 341.93 345.62 350.00 355.02 360.04 365.42 371.18 377.47 383.41
Other Labor Income 74.38 74.61 75.25 75.96 76.68 77.50 78.43 79.52 80.76 82.07 83.42 84.77 86.13 87.51
Nonfarm 39.68 40.43 40.77 41.29 41.94 42.65 43.37 44.03 44.61 45.30 45.90 46.65 47.31 48.11
Farm 0.30 0.32 0.39 0.44 0.45 0.47 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.47 0.49 0.50 0.52 0.53
Property Income 177.23 179.86 183.29 186.24 189.24 190.85 193.22 196.64 201.03 206.15 210.65 214.49 218.58 222.39
Transfer Payments 155.89 159.22 161.61 162.89 163.85 165.28 166.43 167.33 168.80 169.51 170.15 170.55 171.17 172.23
Social Insurance 51.26 52.33 52.91 53.51 54.57 55.20 55.68 56.34 57.68 58.46 59.42 60.39 61.88 62.79
Personal Income 588.88 596.06 601.39 605.40 608.82 611.91 615.78 621.21 627.78 635.22 641.88 648.23 654.76 661.63
Wages & Salaries 265.79 268.20 269.61 270.73 272.06 273.25 274.93 277.34 280.24 283.26 286.40 289.84 293.63 297.10
Other Labor Income 60.34 60.52 60.81 61.18 61.51 61.93 62.39 63.01 63.75 64.57 65.38 66.19 67.00 67.81
Nonfarm 32.18 32.80 32.95 33.26 33.65 34.09 34.50 34.89 35.22 35.64 35.98 36.43 36.80 37.28
Farm 0.24 0.26 0.32 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.41 0.41
Property Income 143.76 145.88 148.13 150.02 151.81 152.51 153.70 155.82 158.68 162.19 165.09 167.49 170.03 172.33
Transfer Payments 126.46 129.14 130.61 131.21 131.44 132.08 132.39 132.60 133.24 133.36 133.36 133.17 133.15 133.46
Social Insurance 41.58 42.44 42.76 43.10 43.78 44.11 44.29 44.64 45.53 46.00 46.57 47.15 48.14 48.65
New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 802.10 812.73 838.60 886.77 903.35 960.51 1012.00 1067.72 1113.69 1147.06 1180.31 1210.77 1247.46 1281.29
Retail Sales (Billions $) 248.93 249.71 253.94 257.58 260.72 264.17 268.70 274.00 278.49 282.38 285.91 289.49 293.02 296.52
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$) 201.93 202.54 205.22 207.48 209.15 211.11 213.74 217.12 219.83 222.16 224.08 226.05 227.94 229.77
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Billions 2000 Dollars
Billions Current Dollars
F l o r I d A s U m m A r y TA B l E s
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 17
Table 6. Personal Income-Annual
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Personal Income 508.40 531.22 582.77 633.20 690.27 713.49 719.71 703.31 739.15 770.68 812.96 859.98
Wages & Salaries 250.91 264.52 285.62 310.34 333.10 343.33 339.10 325.03 332.01 344.17 362.92 386.19
Other Labor Income 53.34 59.15 63.35 69.52 72.91 73.58 73.70 73.62 75.05 78.03 82.76 88.21
Nonfarm 34.80 36.32 39.55 42.00 45.12 42.61 41.73 39.66 40.54 43.00 45.62 48.44
Farm 1.31 1.10 0.99 1.47 1.23 0.84 0.64 0.53 0.36 0.47 0.48 0.53
Property Income 123.83 122.75 142.66 156.37 181.69 190.85 191.21 175.55 181.66 192.49 208.08 224.56
Transfer Payments 79.84 84.88 91.32 98.06 104.41 111.50 122.57 136.86 159.90 165.72 169.75 172.76
Social Insurance 37.16 39.04 42.31 46.20 49.91 51.13 51.23 49.97 52.50 55.45 58.99 63.17
Personal Income 492.17 503.98 538.75 568.40 603.11 607.17 592.64 578.00 597.93 614.43 638.28 665.07
Wages & Salaries 242.90 250.96 264.05 278.59 291.05 292.18 279.24 267.12 268.58 274.40 284.94 298.66
Other Labor Income 51.63 56.12 58.57 62.40 63.71 62.62 60.69 60.51 60.71 62.21 64.97 68.22
Nonfarm 33.69 34.46 36.57 37.70 39.42 36.27 34.36 32.59 32.80 34.28 35.82 37.46
Farm 1.26 1.04 0.91 1.32 1.07 0.71 0.53 0.44 0.29 0.37 0.38 0.41
Property Income 119.89 116.46 131.87 140.35 158.73 162.41 157.45 144.29 146.95 153.46 163.36 173.66
Transfer Payments 77.29 80.53 84.43 88.03 91.23 94.88 100.92 112.46 129.35 132.13 133.28 133.61
Social Insurance 35.98 37.04 39.12 41.47 43.61 43.51 42.18 41.07 42.47 44.21 46.31 48.86
New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1302.63 1397.29 1442.73 1449.69 1416.66 1242.20 951.97 733.42 835.05 985.90 1162.96 1288.84
Retail Sales (Billions $) 196.65 207.15 225.75 245.91 264.17 267.37 260.72 242.20 252.54 266.90 284.07 297.94
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$) 190.37 196.53 208.70 220.76 230.83 227.53 214.69 199.04 204.29 212.78 223.03 230.42
Billions Current Dollars
Billions 2000 Dollars
F l o r I d A F o r E C A s TM a r c h 2 0 1 0C
HA
rT
s
13121110090807060504030201009998
1200.01150.01100.01050.01000.0950.0900.0850.0800.0750.0
Florida Education & Health Services Employment
(Thousands)
F l o r I d A C H A r T s
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 19
13121110090807060504030201009998
12%10%8%7%5%3%1%
-0%-2%-4%
Florida Personal Income(% change year ago)
13121110090807060504030201009998
10%
8%6%
4%
2%0%
-2%-4%
-6%
Florida Real Gross State Product(% change year ago)
F l o r I d A C H A r T s
20 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate(%)
FL Unemployment RateU.S. Unemployment Rate
13121110090807060504030201009998
700.0
650.0
600.0
550.0
500.0
450.0
400.0
350.0
Florida Construction Employment(Thousands)
F l o r I d A C H A r T s
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 21
13121110090807060504030201009998
500.0
450.0
400.0
350.0
300.0
Florida Manufacturing Employment(Thousands)
13121110090807060504030201009998
1650.0
1600.0
1550.0
1500.0
1450.0
1400.0
Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment
(Thousands)
F l o r I d A C H A r T s
22 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
13121110090807060504030201009998
560.0
540.0520.0500.0
480.0460.0
440.0420.0
Florida Financial Activities Employment
(Thousands)
13121110090807060504030201009998
1400.0
1300.01200.01100.0
1000.0900.0
800.0700.0
Florida Professional & Business Services Employment
(Thousands)
F l o r I d A C H A r T s
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 23
13121110090807060504030201009998
1200.01150.01100.01050.01000.0950.0900.0850.0800.0750.0
Florida Education & Health Services Employment
(Thousands)
13121110090807060504030201009998
190.0
180.0
170.0
160.0
150.0
140.0
130.0
Florida Information Employment(Thousands)
F l o r I d A C H A r T s
24 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
13121110090807060504030201009998
150.0
145.0140.0135.0
130.0125.0
120.0115.0
Florida Federal Government Employment
(Thousands)
13121110090807060504030201009998
1050.0
1000.0
950.0
900.0
850.0
800.0
Florida State & Local Government Employment
(Thousands)
13121110090807060504030201009998
1200.01150.01100.01050.01000.0950.0900.0850.0800.0750.0
Florida Education & Health Services Employment
(Thousands)
F l o r I d A C H A r T s
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 25
13121110090807060504030201009998
1000.0
950.0
900.0
850.0
800.0
750.0
Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment
(Thousands)
13121110090807060504030201009998
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
8.5%8.0%7.5%7.0%6.5%6.0%5.5%5.0%4.5%
Florida Housing Starts(thousands)
Total Private Housing Starts30 year Mortgage Rates
13121110090807060504030201009998
30%20%10%0%
-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%
New Passenger Car & LightTruck Registrations
(% change year ago)
F l o r I d A C H A r T s
26 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
13121110090807060504030201009998
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Florida Consumer Price Index(% change year ago)
FL CPI
13121110090807060504030201009998
12%10%8%6%4%2%0%
-2%-4%
Florida Gross State Product(% change year ago)
FL Gross State Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
8500.0
8000.0
7500.0
7000.0
6500.0
6000.0
Florida Employment(Thousands)
Wage & Salary Employment
F l o r I d A n E w s s U m m A r I E s
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 27
Florida schools face money crunch as enrollment rises• Afterfouryearsofdroppingenrollmentrates,Floridahasseen
anunanticipatedincreasethis2009-2010schoolyearof12,310students.
• TheFloridaSchoolBoardAssociationattributesthisriseinpublicschoolenrollmenttothedeclineinprivateschoolenrollment,assomefamilieshurtbytheeconomycannolongeraffordprivateschooltuition.
• AcountinOctober2009oftotalpublicschoolenrollmentcameinat2.62millionstudents.
• Officialssaythatlawmakerswillaskfor$20milliontopayforthenewstudents,andifthefundscannotbeobtained,moreprograms,studentresources,andoperatingexpenseswillhavetobecut.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, January 9, 2010
Fish farms could fail without federal help• ThetropicalfishindustryinFloridaisexpectedtoseealoss
of75%,or$20million,thisyear,duetorecord-breakinglowtemperaturescausingthedeathsofmanyfish.
• Florida’stropicalfishindustrydominatedthemarketinthelate1980’s,withAsianimportsatapproximately30%ofthemarketshare.Today,theseimportsareat65%ofthemarketshare.In2007,tropicalfishsaleswereat$32.2million,overhalfofFlorida’saquacultureindustry.
• Farmersareseekingfederalaid,asinsuranceprogramswillcoveronlythesecondhalfoflosses,cappedat$100,000perfarm.
Source: The Lakeland Ledger, January 19, 2010
Cost of Florida cold: Hundreds of millions• TheFloridaDepartmentofAgricultureandConsumerServices
reportedtolawmakersthatagriculturelossesduetobeginning-of-yearfreezeswilleasilytophundredsofmillionsofdollars.
• Lee,Collier,Charlotte,andHendrycountieshavealreadyseenapproximately$100millioninagriculturelosses.
• OneofFlorida’slargestagricultureindustries,the$9billioncitrusindustry,willnothavefinalfiguresondamagesformonths.
• FloridasuppliestheU.S.with70%ofthecountry’sdomesticwinterproduce.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, January 20, 2010
Florida property taxes ‘drop like a rock’ over last three years• Overthepastthreeyears,Florida’spropertytaxeshaveseen
a7.5%,or$2.28billiondrop,duetotaxcutsapprovedbytheFloridaLegislatureandvotedinbyresidents,aswellasdecliningrealestatevalues.
• Thesetaxcutswereinstitutedastaxpayerswereangryovertaxcollectiondoublingover2000-2006.
• Taxablepropertyvaluesforschooltaxeshavenotdeclinedasmuch,fallinglessthan1%between2006and2009.Thisindicatesthatthetaxlawandamendmentsarelargelyresponsibleforthedeclineincollections,withthedeclineinrealestatevaluesasecondarycause.
• Taxcollectionshavenotcontinuedtofallduetothe“recapturerule”—anamendmentadoptedinthe1990sthatlimitsannualassessmentincreasesto3%orlesswhenrealestatevaluesareontherise.Whenvaluesdecrease,however,theruleincreasesassessmentsbyupto3%.
Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 4, 2010
Blue Cross of Florida asks for up to 14% rate increase• BlueCrossandBlueShieldofFloridaisseekingtoincreaserates
forindividualsandsmallbusinesses,arateincreasethatcouldtop14%forsome.
• InthemonthofFebruary,thecompanyfiledthreerateincreaserequestswiththeOfficeofInsuranceRegulation.
• Forindividualswhopaypreferred-providerorganizationpolicies,therateswouldincreaseby11.2%.Forsmall-groupplans,theincreasewouldbeatleast14%.
• BlueCrossofficialsstatedthattherateswereincreasingduetorisingmedicalcostsandtheunpaidmedicalbillsleftbyuninsuredpatientsthatforcehealthproviderstorecouplossesthroughprivatehealthplans.
Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 25, 2010
ACA Home Insurance seeks 20 percent rate hike• AhearingwasscheduledbytheFloridaOfficeofInsurance
RegulationtoaddresstherateincreaserequestedbyACAHomeInsuranceCorp.
• ACAisaskingforanincreaseof20.5%,whichwouldtakeeffectonApril8ifapproved.
• The20.5%increaseisastatewideaverageforhomeownerpolicyholders—someareaswillseehigherorlowerincreases.
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, March 1, 2010
Florida Legislature passes unemployment tax rollback, extends benefits to jobless• AbillintheFloridaLegislaturewaspassedunanimouslythatwill
rollbackanunemploymentcompensationtaxincrease.• ThetaxincreasewouldhaveputadditionalstrainonFlorida’s
businessesandeconomy.Thebillalsoextendedunemploymentbenefitsforeightmoreweeksforthe15,000unemployedworkersinthestate.
• Thetaxincreasewasoriginallydesignedtoautomaticallyreplenishtheunemploymenttrustfundwhenitreachedacertainlevel,whichhadbeensurpassedwhenthefundwascompletelydrainedlastyear.
• Asmallertaxincreasewillstilloccurthisyear,withtheminimumrisingfrom$8.40to$25.50peremployee.Thisisamuchmoremodestincrease,astheoriginalhikewouldhavebroughttherateupto$100.30peremployee.Themaximumunemploymenttaxratewillremainthesameaslastyear’s$378,asopposedtotheoriginalhikeofupto$459.
Source: Naples News, March 2, 2010
State’s jobs bill gives tax breaks to film, space industries• TheFloridaLegislaturewillbeaddressingabillintheSenate
WaysandMeansCommitteethatwillincludetaxcreditsforthefilmindustryandspacebusinesses,amongothers.
• Overtime,thetaxcreditsareexpectedtoamounttoover$160million.
• Othertaxbreakswillbeincludedinthebill,includingthoseforcompaniesthathirepreviouslyunemployedworkersandcompaniesthatmakecapitalinvestmentsofatleast$25million.
• Thesetaxcreditswillnottakeeffectforatleastayeartopreventrisingcostsfornextyear.
Source: Orlando Sentinel, March 15, 2010
F l o r I d A F o r E C A s TM a r c h 2 0 1 0m
ET
ro
s
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 29
d E lT o n A – d Ay T o n A B E A C H – o r m o n d B E A C H
P r o F I l E s
TheDeltona–Daytona–OrmondBeachMSAiscomprisedonlyofVolusiaCounty.ItislocatedontheeastcoastofFloridaandisnotableforspecialeventsthatoccurthroughouttheyearsuchasBikeWeek.ItishometoNASCARheadquartersandtheDaytonaInternationalSpeedway,whichhostspopularracessuchastheDaytona500.
QUICkFACTS:• Populationestimateof498,036asofJuly1,
2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• Acivilianlaborforceof255,020inApril
2009(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
• Anunemploymentrateof10.3%asofApril2009,notseasonallyadjusted.Thisamountsto26,256unemployedpeople.(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
TOPAREAEMPLOyERS:• VolusiaCountySchools–8,351employees• HalifaxHealth–4,327employees• VolusiaCountyGovernment–3,728
employees• FloridaHospital–Alldivisions–3,547
employees• StateGovernment–3,038employees• Wal-MartStores,Inc.–2,908employees• PublixSuperMarkets,Inc.–2,758
employees• DaytonaStateCollege–1,933employees• FederalGovernment–1,437employees• EmbryRiddleAeronauticalUniversity–
1,225employeesSource: Volusia County Department of Economic Development
o U T l o o k s U m m A r I E s
TheDeltona–Daytona–OrmondBeachMSAisexpectedtoshowmodestgrowthinmostoftheeconomicindicatorsmeasuredinthisforecast.Personalincomeisexpectedtoaverage5.0percentgrowth,whilethepercapitaincomelevelwillbeat27.7.Averageannualwagewillbethelowestlevelinthestateat37.8.Averageannualwagegrowthisexpectedtobe2.7percent.Populationgrowthwillbethelowestinthestateat-0.1percent.GrossMetroProductwillalsobeoneofthelowestinthestateat10,317.18(Mill).
Theemploymentgrowthrateisexpectedtoaverage0.8percenteachyear.Unemploymentwillbeoneoftheworstinthestate,averaging10.9percentannually.
TheDeltonaMSAwillexperiencethemostgrowthintheManufacturingsector,withanaveragegrowthrateof2.4percentannually.TheInformationsectorwillseethesecond-mostgrowthintheMSA,at2.0percentannualgrowth.TheTrade,Transportation,andUtilitysectorfollowswithanannualgrowthrateof1.3percent.TheProfessional&BusinessServicessectoristheonlysectorthatwillexperienceadecline,withanannualgrowthrateof-0.4percent.
m E T r o n E w s s U m m A r I E s
Profit at International Speedway falls 95%
• ForthefiscalyearendingNovember30,profitforNASCAR’sInternationalSpeedwayinDaytonawasdownnearly95%.Revenuesfellby12%inthesameperiod.
• Inapreparedstatement,thecompanyclaimedthepersistenceof“adverseeconomictrends”resultedinreducedattendanceandrevenue.
• InternationalSpeedwayrepresentativeLesaFrancekennedyappearshopefulthatarecoveringeconomywillreversethedownwardfallofprofit,statingthatInternationalSpeedwayis“optimisticthattheeconomicrecoveryunderwaywillcontinuetostrengthenandwe
30 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
d E lT o n A – d Ay T o n A B E A C H – o r m o n d B E A C H
willbegintoseepositivechangesinconsumerandcorporatespending.”
Source: Orlando Business Journal, January 29, 2010
Daytona designates ‘brownfield’ area for economic boost
• Daytonacitycommissionersvotedinfavorofestablishinga“brownfield”area—aportionofthecitywherebusinessescanreceivestateaidinovercomingeconomicandenvironmentalobstacles.
• Thistoolforeconomicredevelopmentawardsbusinesses$2,000instateand$500inmunicipalgrantsforjobcreation.
• ThenewbrownfieldsencompassmajorDaytonafirmssuchastheInternationalSpeedway,butalsoincludeotherlocalbusinesses.
• TheCentralBusinessCorridorsEconomicEnhancementAreaisatypeofbrownfield,offeringbusinesseseconomicandenvironmentalassistance.
Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, February 4, 2010
Edgewater developer seeking extension
• Grantedathreeyearextensionin2007,EdgewaterHarbor,LLCisseekinganadditional6monthsonitsdevelopmentcontractwiththeCityofDaytona.
• Thecitysoldthecompanya60-acrepropertyfor$3millionin2003,expectingtheEdgewaterHarborcommercialluxurycondominiumprojecttogeneratelargetaxrevenuesforthecity.
• EdgewaterHarborrepresentativeHawkMcMillanarguedthateconomicfactorssuchasthehousingslumpandcreditcrisishavesloweddevelopmentontheproject,therebynecessitatingtheextension.
Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, Feb. 22, 2010
Sun, sales lift spirits on Beach Street
• DespiteacoldandrainystarttoBikeWeek2010,bothvendorsandvisitorsregainedconfidencethattheevent’santicipatedreturntoBeachStreetwouldsurpasslastyear’sshowinginbothsalesandattendance.
• Inthemidstofamending,butstillstuntedeconomy,manyDaytonaresidentsfearedBikeWeek2010wouldbeunsuccessful.
• DaytonaHarleydealerkellyRangclaimedmotorcycleriderswouldbeundaunted,statingthat“peoplerideHarleystoforgettheireverydayproblems,foulweatherandeconomyincluded.”
Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, March 1, 2010
B-CU to host discussion of faith, economics
• TheartsandhumanitiesdepartmentatBethuneCookmanUniversityishostingatalkonthecurrenteconomicenvironmententitled“TheCallofFaithinChallengingEconomicTimes.”
• Thediscussionispartof13thannualRichardV.MooreSr.LectureSeries,andisopentothepublic.
• TheThurgoodMarshallDebateSocietyattheuniversitywillbeconsidering“EconomicRedevelopmentfromaGlobalPerspective”inoneoftheday’sseveraldiscussions.
Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, March 16, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 31
d E lT o n A – d Ay T o n A B E A C H – o r m o n d B E A C H
Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSAIndustry Location Quotients
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
Total Government Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services Financial Activities
Information Transportation, Warehousing, and Util iti
Retail Trade Wholesale Trade
Trade, Transportation, and Util ities Manufacturing
Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Private Service Providing
Service Producing Goods Producing
Total Private Total Nonagricultural Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
180.0
170.0
160.0
150.0
140.0
130.0
Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment
(Thousands)
Deltona Payroll Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
11000.0
10500.0
10000.09500.0
9000.0
8500.0
8000.0
Deltona-Daytona BeachReal Gross Metro Product
(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
15.0%12.0%9.0%6.0%3.0%0.0%
-3.0%-6.0%
Deltona-Daytona BeachReal Personal Income
(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%
Florida & Deltona-Daytona BeachUnemployment Rate
(percent)
FL Unemployment RateDeltona Unemployment Rate
32 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
d E lT o n A – d Ay T o n A B E A C H – o r m o n d B E A C H
Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL* March 2010 Forecast
2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 15.4 15.8 16 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.8 18 18.2 18.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0 4.5 4.9 6.1 6.2 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.2 Wages and Salaries 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6 6 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 Nonwage Income 9.7 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 11 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 12Real Personal Income (00$) 12.5 12.8 13 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 14 14.2 14.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 2.4 3.1 4.6 5 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.6Per Capita Income (Ths) 31 32 32.5 33 33.4 33.8 34.1 34.4 34.8 35.2 35.6 36 36.4 36.8 37.2Real Per Capita Income (00$) 25.2 26 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8Average Annual Wage (Ths) 35.8 36.1 36.4 36.7 36.9 37.1 37.3 37.5 37.6 37.8 38 38.2 38.4 38.7 39 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 4.3 3.8 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.4 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 2 2.1 2.3 2.5
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 158.5 157.9 157.5 157.2 157 157.1 157.5 158.2 159 159.6 160.7 161.9 163.1 164.2 165.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.9 -3 -2.6 -2 -0.9 -0.5 0 0.6 1.3 1.6 2 2.3 2.6 2.9 3Manufacturing 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.8 8.8 8.9 9 9.1 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.6 -7.4 -4.2 -2.8 0.5 2.1 3.6 4.9 5.5 6 5.5 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.1Nonmanufacturing 150.4 149.8 149.4 149.1 148.8 148.9 149.1 149.7 150.3 150.9 151.9 152.9 154.1 155.1 156.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6 -2.7 -2.5 -2 -1 -0.6 -0.2 0.4 1 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.9 Construction & Mining 9.8 9.5 9.3 9 9 9 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.8 10 10.2 10.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.8 -13.4 -13.4 -13.6 -8.4 -5.1 -2 1.6 3.5 4.8 6 6.7 7.1 8 8.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 30.1 30.1 30 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.9 31.2 31.4 31.7 31.8 32.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.9 -2.5 -3 -1.9 -0.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.2 3 2.9 Wholesale Trade 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 Retail Trade 22.8 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.6 22.6 22.7 22.9 23 23.2 23.3 23.5 23.6 23.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 Information 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4 -3.1 -2.6 -1.6 -0.7 0.6 5.4 4.4 3.2 3.4 2.9 3.4 3.8 3 3 Financial Activities 7 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7 7 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -5 -5 -3.4 -1.9 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9 -0.1 1.4 2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.3 1.9 Prof & Business Services 15.3 15.2 15 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -9 -6.2 -5.4 -3.4 -3.5 -2.9 -2.6 -1.8 -1 -1.6 -0.3 0.8 2.2 4.2 5.4 Educ & Health Services 31.7 31.8 31.9 32 32 32 32.2 32.5 32.6 32.7 32.9 33 33.1 33.2 33.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.5 1 0.7 1 1.6 2 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 22.9 22.8 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.8 22.8 23 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 0.5 -0.4 0.7 -0.2 0.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 1.2 2.2 2.5 2.4 Other Services 7.9 8 8 8 8 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0 -0.1 1.6 2.5 1 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 Federal Government 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 5.5 17.3 11.7 3.9 -3.8 -14 -7.8 -3 -1.5 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 State & Local Government 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.8 22 22.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6 -2.8 -3.3 -3 -1.6 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.2 1 1.6 2.1 2.6 2.7
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 9814.3 9899.1 9898.7 9922.2 9945.8 9988.9 10033.2 10112.7 10204.5 10290.4 10394.6 10501.4 10611.7 10689.9 10778.4Population (Ths) 497.2 493.4 491.5 490.5 490.4 489.9 489.7 489.7 490.4 491.2 492 493 494 495 496.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 -1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8Labor Force (Ths) 253 252.6 252.7 253.2 253.7 254.3 254.6 255.3 256.1 257.2 258 258.9 260 261.1 262.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -1.4 -1.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7Unemployment Rate (%) 12.5 12.8 13 13 12.7 12.4 12 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.3 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.8Total Housing Starts 906 830 949 1257 1766 2271 2763 3220 3595 3783 4028 4263 4395 4457 4560 Single-Family 860 700 833 1134 1590 2061 2524 2940 3257 3421 3645 3815 3874 3888 3948 Multifamily 46 130 116 123 175 209 240 281 338 362 384 448 522 569 612
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 33
d E lT o n A – d Ay T o n A B E A C H – o r m o n d B E A C H
Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL March 2010 Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 11.7 12.2 13.4 14.2 15.2 15.5 15.5 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.7 9.4 5.9 7.3 1.9 0.3 -1.7 5.4 4.3 5.1 5.3 Wages and Salaries 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.5 5.9 6 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.5 Nonwage Income 7.3 7.5 8.3 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.6 10.3 10.8 11.5 12Real Personal Income (00$) 11.3 11.6 12.4 12.7 13.3 13.2 12.8 12.5 13 13.4 13.9 14.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.6 6.6 2.8 4.4 -0.8 -2.9 -1.9 3.8 2.8 3.5 3.7Per Capita Income (Ths.) 25.4 26.1 27.9 29 30.6 30.9 31 30.7 32.7 34.3 35.8 37.4Real Per Capita Income (00$) 24.6 24.8 25.8 26 26.7 26.3 25.6 25.2 26.5 27.3 28.1 28.9Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 28.1 29.3 30.5 31.6 33.6 34.7 35.1 35.2 36.5 37.4 38.1 39.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.5 4.2 3.4 6.3 3.3 1.3 0.2 3.8 2.3 2 2.6
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 153.8 158.6 165.4 171.8 174.9 173.5 166.9 160.9 157.4 158 161.3 165.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 3.1 4.3 3.9 1.8 -0.8 -3.8 -3.6 -2.2 0.4 2.1 2.8Manufacturing 9.6 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.6 10.3 9.3 8.4 8.1 8.4 8.9 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.3 -1.5 3.9 4.3 3.9 -2.6 -10.4 -9.2 -3.6 4 5.3 3.7Nonmanufacturing 144.2 149.1 155.6 161.6 164.3 163.1 157.7 152.4 149.3 149.5 152.4 156.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 3.4 4.3 3.9 1.6 -0.7 -3.4 -3.3 -2.1 0.2 2 2.8 Construction & Mining 10.6 11.5 12.9 14.8 15.9 14.2 11.5 10.5 9.2 9.2 9.7 10.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.3 7.9 12.8 14.5 7.3 -10.4 -19.1 -8.8 -12.3 -0.6 6.2 8.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 30.9 31.5 32 33.2 33.2 33.6 32.2 30.6 30.1 30.3 31.3 32.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.6 1.7 3.7 0.1 1.1 -4.1 -4.8 -1.9 0.9 3.2 2.8 Wholesale Trade 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 Retail Trade 23.6 24.3 25 26 25.9 25.8 24.5 23.1 22.7 22.7 23.2 23.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 Information 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.2 -7.6 -2.5 -3.2 8.3 5.2 4 -7 -2 3.4 3.4 3.1 Financial Activities 6.4 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.9 8 7.7 7.1 6.9 6.9 7 7.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 1.2 7.2 5.5 7.2 2.2 -3.9 -7.9 -3.2 -0.2 2.5 1.8 Prof & Business Services 16.4 17.4 19.1 20.6 20.4 19 17.4 15.7 15 14.6 14.7 15.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 6.3 9.8 7.7 -0.9 -6.7 -8.4 -9.8 -4.6 -2.1 0.2 4.9 Educ & Health Services 28.2 30.1 30.7 30.5 30.5 30.6 31.8 31.9 31.9 32.3 32.9 33.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.7 6.7 1.9 -0.7 0.2 0.2 4 0.3 0.1 1.3 1.9 1.3 Leisure & Hospitality 19.6 20 21.1 21.7 21.6 22.6 22.6 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 2.2 5.3 2.9 -0.4 4.6 0 1 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.1 Other Services 7.6 7.8 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.1 8 7.9 8 8.1 8.1 8.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.8 2.9 4 0.1 1.2 -1.7 -1.8 -1.3 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.9 Federal Government 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.4 0 1.2 -0.6 -0.6 0 -0.6 9.6 -7.4 -0.7 0.1 State & Local Government 20.6 20.7 21.1 21.8 22.8 23.1 22.5 22.1 21.5 21.4 21.6 22.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.5 2.1 3.5 4.4 1.4 -2.9 -1.6 -2.7 -0.8 1.2 2.7
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 9058.2 9078.1 9431.2 10041 10492 10462 10245 9917.4 9916.5 10085 10450 10818Population (Ths) 460 468.6 479.3 489 497.3 501.3 500.2 497.8 491.4 489.9 492.6 496.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.9 2.3 2 1.7 0.8 -0.2 -0.5 -1.3 -0.3 0.5 0.8Labor Force (Ths) 220.9 226.8 232.7 240.9 246.6 250.8 253.6 254.6 253.1 255.1 258.5 263.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.7 2.6 3.5 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.4 -0.6 0.8 1.3 1.8Unemployment Rate (%) 5.5 5.2 4.5 3.7 3.3 4.1 6.6 11.2 12.9 11.8 10.1 8.7Total Housing Starts 4785 6171 6179 6363 4126 2194 1366 778 1200 2962 4118 4595 Single-Family 4136 4990 4779 5121 3100 1583 1018 714 1064 2695 3689 3979 Multifamily 649 1181 1401 1242 1026 611 348 63 136 267 429 617
34 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
g A I n E s v I l l E
P r o F I l E s
TheGainesvilleMSAiscomprisedofAlachuaandGilchristcountiesandislocatedinthenorth-centralportionofthestate.ThismetroishometotheUniversityofFloridaandtheFloridaMuseumofNaturalHistory,Florida’sofficialnaturalhistorymuseum.
QUICkFACTS:• Metropopulationestimateof258,555asof
July1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• AlachuaCountypopulationestimateof
241,364asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• GilchristCountypopulationestimateof17,191asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• Acivilianlaborforceof140,426inApril2009forthemetroarea(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
• Anunemploymentrateof5.7%asofApril2009,notseasonallyadjustedforthemetro.Thisamountsto8,058unemployedpeople.(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
TOPAREAEMPLOyERS:• UniversityofFlorida–35,000employees• ShandsHospital–12,588employees• VeteransAffairsMedicalCenter–4,317
employees• AlachuaCountySchoolBoard–4,299
employees• CityofGainesville–2,200employees• PublixSuperMarkets,Inc.–2,056
employees• NorthFloridaRegionalMedicalCenter–
1,700employees• NationwideInsuranceCompany–1,300
employees
• AlachuaCountyGovernment–1,120employees
• SantaFeCommunityCollege-796employees
Source: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach
o U T l o o k s U m m A r I E s
TheGainesvilleMSAisexpectedtoshowmodestgrowthinalloftheeconomicindicatorsmeasuredinthisforecast,relativetothestate.Personalincomegrowthwillbethesecondlowestinthestate,averaging4.3percent,whilepercapitaincomelevelisexpectedtoaverage28.2.Averageannualwagegrowthisexpectedtobe2.8percent,whiletheaverageannualwagelevelwillbe40.8.Populationgrowthwillaverageagrowthrateof0.6percentannually.GrossMetroProductwillbethesecondlowestinthestateatalevelof7,986.33(Mill).
Thismetrowillseeanemploymentgrowthrateof0.5percentannually,oneofthelowestinthestate.TheGainesvilleMSAwillmaintainthelowestrateofunemploymentinthestate,at6.9percent.
ThefastestgrowingsectorintheareawillbetheManufacturingsector,withanaveragegrowthrateof2.8percentannually.ThisisfollowedbytheInformationsector,withanaverageannualgrowthrateof1.1percent,andtheEducationandHealthServicessectorwith1.0percentgrowth.TheState&LocalGovernmentsectorandtheFederalGovernmentsectoraretheonlysectorsthatwillexperiencedeclines,withannualgrowthratesof-0.1percentand-0.9percentrespectively.
m E T r o n E w s s U m m A r I E s
In struggling economy, Gainesville airport’s goal is to hold steady
• TheGainesvilleRegionalAirportisrunninga$12,000adcampaigntoluremorecarriersandflightsandkeeptheexistingcarriersinterested,whiletryingtoincreaseitslocalvisibility.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 35
g A I n E s v I l l E
• Tenantbankruptcyandtheeconomyhavehurttheairport’sservicesalesandhaveresultedin$505,000ofannualloandebt.Theairporthasno‘wiggle-room’toraisefeesonairlinesandaviationbusinessestocompensate.
• GainesvilleRegionalwilltrytoluremoreairserviceandhopesthatlow-costcarrierscanbesuccessful.However,therealisticgoalistoretaintheircurrentbusiness.
Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 5, 2010
Vision of the future
• OnJanuary28th,theGainesvilleAreaChamberofCommerceunveiledtheInnovationGainesvilleeconomicdevelopmentplan,whichemphasizesgrowinghealthandgreentechnologycompanies,universityresearch,andcollegegraduateretention.
• Thereportwascreatedincollaborationwithmorethan200individuals,includingleadersinbusiness,government,schools,theUniversityofFlorida,andSantaFeCollege.
• Theplanwillincludeanyinnovativecompany,butwillfocusonhealthandgreencompaniesandexclude“non-green”companies.Theincentiveswillincludeannualprizesandfreehousing.
Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 29, 2010
UF enrollment cuts end as economy takes toll
• TheUniversityofFloridahashaltedenrollmentcutsforthefallandsummerterms,admitting10,985for6,400seatsavailable,inanattempttobringinmorefundingduringatimeofstatebudgetcuts.
• UF’senrollmentcutsinpreviousyearshavehurtthelocalrealestatemarket,aswellasunderminedalumnisupportandloweredpoliticalcloutinthestate.
• RisingadmissionsstandardswhileloweringenrollmentnumbershasfrustratedmanystudentswhowereexpectingtogainadmissiontoUF.
Source: The Gainesville Sun, February 12, 2010
Stimulus money may bring 650 local jobs
• Upto650jobsmaybecreatedforthosewhoqualifyforcashassistanceunderFlorida’sBacktoWorkprogram.Qualificationsincludeatleastonedependentchildandfamilyincomebelow200%ofthefederalpovertylevel.
• Thegoaloftheprogramistosubsidizejobpositionswithlocalbusinesses,inhopesthatemployerswillstarthiringafterthesubsidyperiodends.Furthermore,theemployeesareexpectedtohelptheregionaleconomywithlocalspendingoftheirearnings.
• 36privatebusinesses,14localgovernmentsand12nonprofitshaveapplied.Thepositionsrangefromclerksandcashiers,topositionsinhealth-care,InformationTechnology,andmanagement.
Source: The Gainesville Sun, February 17, 2010
Weekend’s home show sells out the O’Dome
• TheNorthCentralFloridaHomeShowhadallofits200boothsbookedbylocalareabuildersandsub-contractors,bringinghopethattheeconomymightberecovering.
• TheBuildersAssociationisreportingstrongmembershipnumbers,citingcommunitysolidarityandalackofcompetitionfromnationaldevelopers.
• IndependentcontractorArkRemodelingandConstructionhasreported60projectestimatesovertheexhibitionweekend,withanoverall20%returnonestimates.Also,housingpermitsareupmorethan50%inAlachuaCounty,relativeto2009.
Source: The Gainesville Sun, March 12, 2010
36 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
g A I n E s v I l l E
Gainesville MSAIndustry Location Quotients
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Total Government
Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Financial Activities
Information
Transportation, Warehousing, and Util iti
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Trade, Transportation, and Util ities
Manufacturing
Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct
Private Service Providing
Service Producing
Goods Producing
Total Private
Total Nonagricultural Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
140.0
135.0
130.0
125.0
120.0
115.0
Gainesville Payroll Employment(Thousands)
Gainesville Payroll Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
8500.0
8000.0
7500.0
7000.0
6500.0
6000.0
5500.0
Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%
-2.0%-4.0%
Gainesville Real Personal Income(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%
Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RateGainesville Unemployment Rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 37
g A I n E s v I l l E
Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL* March 2010 Forecast
2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 8.6 8.8 8.9 9 9 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 4.2 4.6 5.4 5 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 Wages and Salaries 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 Nonwage Income 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4 4 4 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4Real Personal Income (00$) 7 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 2.1 2.8 3.9 3.8 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.8 2 2.6 3 3.1 3.2 3.1Per Capita Income (Ths) 32.7 33.6 33.9 34.2 34.4 34.7 34.9 35.1 35.4 35.7 36 36.4 36.7 37.1 37.4Real Per Capita Income (00$) 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 29Average Annual Wage (Ths) 38.5 38.9 39.3 39.6 39.8 40.1 40.2 40.4 40.6 40.9 41.1 41.3 41.5 41.9 42.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.1 2 2 2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 130.8 130.1 130 129.4 128.9 128.8 128.9 129.3 129.6 129.9 130.6 131.4 132.1 132.8 133.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 -1.8 -1.4 -1.1 -1.4 -1 -0.8 -0.1 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.3Manufacturing 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5 5 5.1 5.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.1 -7.2 -3.3 -0.8 0.7 2.3 3.8 5.2 5.8 6.2 5.7 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.3Nonmanufacturing 126.3 125.6 125.5 124.9 124.4 124.3 124.3 124.6 124.9 125.1 125.7 126.4 127.1 127.7 128.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 -1.6 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.1 -1 -0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 Construction & Mining 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5 5 5.1 5.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.8 -8.2 -9.1 -10.7 -9.2 -6 -2.8 0.8 2.6 4 5.2 5.8 6 6.8 7.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 18.5 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.9 19 19.2 19.3 19.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.1 -3.5 -2.9 -1.2 -0.9 -0.5 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.4 3 3 2.7 2.5 2.4 Wholesale Trade 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3 3 3 3 3.1 Retail Trade 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 13 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 Information 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.6 -5.3 -7.6 -1.7 -1.7 0.5 4.7 4.8 3.6 3.3 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.2 Financial Activities 6 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 6 6 6.1 6.1 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2 -4 -3.9 -2.4 -2.4 -1.5 -1 -0.1 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.7 Prof & Business Services 10.3 10.2 10.1 10 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 10 10.2 10.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.8 -3.5 -2 -1.6 -3.5 -3 -2.7 -1.8 -1 -1.7 -0.4 0.7 2 4.1 5.2 Educ & Health Services 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.3 1.3 1 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 Leisure & Hospitality 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3 0.6 -0.6 -1 -0.8 -0.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 1 2 2.5 2.5 Other Services 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0 0.1 1 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 Federal Government 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -2 10.1 4.4 1.3 0.5 -10.9 -5.9 -2.7 -2.2 -1.5 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 State & Local Government 37.9 37.6 37.4 37.2 37 36.9 36.8 36.7 36.7 36.8 36.9 37.1 37.3 37.4 37.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 -0.9 -1.8 -1.6 -2.3 -2 -1.7 -1.2 -0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 2
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 7710 7739.2 7734.8 7746.8 7756.4 7779.1 7804.7 7856.6 7915.9 7967.3 8034.4 8102.2 8172.7 8217.2 8270Population (Ths) 262.7 261.9 261.8 262 262.4 262.7 263 263.5 264 264.6 265.2 265.8 266.4 267 267.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.3 0.1 0 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9Labor Force (Ths) 139 137.8 137.1 136.6 136.5 136.3 136.1 136 136 136.2 136.6 137.2 137.7 138.3 138.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.2 -1.8 -1.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6Unemployment Rate (%) 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.3 7 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.5Total Housing Starts 420 505 532 620 791 952 1054 1132 1189 1208 1253 1339 1399 1435 1473 Single-Family 338 300 354 444 571 698 807 884 928 964 1027 1074 1088 1093 1109 Multifamily 82 204 178 176 220 253 247 247 261 243 227 265 311 342 365
*Quarterly at an annual rate
38 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
g A I n E s v I l l E
Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL March 2010 Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 6 6.2 7 7.6 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.6 10.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 3.6 13.2 8.1 8 4.2 1.7 -1.8 4.8 3.4 4.3 4.8 Wages and Salaries 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.1 5 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.7 Nonwage Income 2.3 2.4 2.7 3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.8 4 4.2 4.4Real Personal Income (00$) 5.8 5.9 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.1 7 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.5 10.3 4.9 5.1 1.5 -1.6 -1.9 3.2 1.9 2.7 3.2Per Capita Income (Ths.) 24.9 25.5 28.6 30.3 32.1 33 33.3 32.5 34 35 36.2 37.6Real Per Capita Income (00$) 24.2 24.2 26.4 27.2 28.1 28.1 27.4 26.7 27.5 27.9 28.4 29.1Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 28.8 29.4 32.9 34.6 36.4 37.5 38 37.9 39.4 40.3 41.2 42.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 2.2 11.9 5.3 5 3.1 1.3 -0.1 3.9 2.4 2.1 2.7
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 126 127.4 129.6 131.2 133.3 135.2 134.6 131.5 129.6 129.2 131 133.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.4 -0.5 -2.3 -1.4 -0.3 1.4 2.2Manufacturing 5 4.7 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -5.3 -1.8 -0.2 12.2 2.2 -4.8 -9.2 -2.7 4.3 5.6 3.9Nonmanufacturing 121 122.6 125 126.5 128.1 129.8 129.5 126.9 125.1 124.5 126.1 128.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 1.3 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 -0.3 -2 -1.4 -0.5 1.3 2.1 Construction & Mining 5.1 5.2 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.5 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 1.5 11.7 6.3 5.3 0.9 -12.4 -8.7 -9.3 -1.4 5.2 7.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.2 19.7 18.8 18.4 18.5 19 19.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 1.1 0.4 3.5 3.3 3.9 -2.7 -4.7 -2.1 0.5 2.8 2.3 Wholesale Trade 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 3 3.1 Retail Trade 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.8 14.1 14.9 14.2 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.3 13.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Information 2 2 2.1 2 2 2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.5 -1.3 6.1 -5.8 -2.9 2.5 -6.6 -6.2 -4.1 3.4 2.7 2.2 Financial Activities 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.9 6 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 -6.4 -0.7 1 4 -0.5 -2.8 -2.8 -3.2 -0.3 2.3 1.6 Prof & Business Services 9.9 10.4 11.3 11.9 12.1 11.6 11.2 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.9 10.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.4 4.3 8.8 5.6 1.3 -4.1 -3.4 -7.5 -2.7 -2.1 0.1 4.7 Educ & Health Services 20.4 20.8 21.5 21.9 21.9 21.8 22.4 22.6 22.8 23 23.3 23.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.3 3 2.1 0.1 -0.6 2.8 0.8 0.8 1 1.4 0.8 Leisure & Hospitality 12.1 12 12.9 13.7 13.4 14 14.9 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 -0.5 7.5 5.9 -2 4.1 6.5 4.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.6 2.2 Other Services 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.3 5.4 3.3 -3 2.6 3.7 -0.8 -1.9 0.7 1 0.5 0.6 Federal Government 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.8 4 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 3.6 3.7 5.9 2.1 3.1 4.1 -1.7 3.5 -4.9 -1.4 -0.7 State & Local Government 39.4 40 38.9 37.6 37.9 38.6 38.7 37.9 37.3 36.8 37 37.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1 1.6 -2.8 -3.3 0.9 1.8 0.2 -1.9 -1.7 -1.4 0.6 2
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 6273.8 6434.4 6993.4 7303 7577.6 7726.8 7746.2 7607.8 7744.3 7839.1 8069.1 8292.8Population (Ths) 239.4 242.1 245.2 249.4 254.2 257.7 260.1 261.9 262 263.3 265.5 268 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.9Labor Force (Ths) 125 126 126.5 128.9 131.6 135.7 139.5 139.1 137 136.1 136.9 139.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.8 2.1 3.1 2.8 -0.3 -1.5 -0.7 0.6 1.6Unemployment Rate (%) 4 3.7 3.4 2.9 2.7 3 4.3 7 8.3 7.5 6.3 5.4Total Housing Starts 1942 1706 1838 2224 1885 1368 1033 454 612 1082 1300 1481 Single-Family 1130 1261 1378 1454 1156 763 491 326 417 830 1038 1116 Multifamily 812 446 461 770 729 605 542 128 194 252 262 364
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 39
J A C k s o n v I l l E
P r o F I l E s
TheJacksonvilleMSAiscomprisedofBaker,Clay,Duval,Nassau,andSt.Johnscounties.ItislocatedonthenortheastcoastofFloridaandishometoseveralmajorU.S.militarybases,suchastheJacksonvilleNavalAirStation,aswellasshipyards,theUniversityofNorthFlorida,andtheJacksonvilleInternationalAirport.
QUICkFACTS:• Metropopulationestimateof1,313,228as
ofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• BakerCountypopulationestimateof26,164
asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• ClayCountypopulationestimateof184,727
asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• DuvalCountypopulationestimateof
850,962asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• NassauCountypopulationestimateof69,835asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• St.JohnsCountypopulationestimateof181,540asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• Acivilianlaborforceof681,078inApril2009forthemetroarea(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
• Anunemploymentrateof9.2%asofApril2009,notseasonallyadjustedforthemetro.Thisamountsto62,772unemployedpeople.(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
TOPAREAEMPLOyERS:• NavalAirStationJacksonville–25,245
employees• DuvalCountyPublicSchools–14,489
employees• NavalStationMayport–10,000employees• CityofJacksonvilleMunicipalGovernment
–8,828employees• BaptistHealth–8,100employees
• BlueCross&BlueShieldofFlorida–7,000employees
• MayoClinic–5,000employees• Citibank–4,600employees• CSX–4,400employees• BankofAmerica–4,000employees
Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership
o U T l o o k s U m m A r I E s
TheJacksonvilleMSAisexpectedtoseestronggrowthinmostoftheeconomicindicators,relativetothestate.Personalincomewillseeanaveragegrowthrateof5.6percent,whilethepercapitaincomelevelwillbeoneofthehighestinthestateat34.4.Averageannualwagegrowthisexpectedtobe3.0percent,thehighestinthestate.Averageannualwageisalsoexpectedtobeamongthehighestinthestate,atalevelof48.9.Populationgrowthwillbemoderateatanaverageannualrateof0.9percent.GrossMetroProductwillbeatalevelof50,626.80(Mill).
Employmentgrowthisexpectedtobe2.0percentannually,tiedforsecondhighestinthestate.Unemploymentwillaverage10.3percentintheMSA.
ThefastestgrowingsectorintheJacksonvilleMSAwillbeProfessional&BusinessServices,whichwillseeanaverageannualgrowthrateof6.7percent.FollowingthatsectorisManufacturing,withanannualgrowthrateof2.3percent,andthenEducationandHealthServiceswitha1.9percentgrowthrate.TheFederalGovernmentsectoristheonlysectorthatwillexperienceadecline,withanannualgrowthrateof-0.6percent.
m E T r o n E w s s U m m A r I E s
Vacancy rates improving for office space in Jacksonville area
• TheJacksonvilleofficevacancyratefellfromthefirstquarterof2009,butat22.4%inthefourthquarterof2009,itremainedthethirdhighestinthestate.
40 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
J A C k s o n v I l l E
• Vacanciesaretwiceashighastheywereinthesecondquarterof2006,whentheratewas11.2%.
• Commercialrealestateprofessionalsremainoptimisticaboutthesector’sprospectsin2010,aslowersalesandleasingpricesstimulateinterestfromout-of-towncompanieslookingtorelocate.
Source: The Florida Times-Union, January 13, 2010
FSCJ awarded $2.2 million in stimulus for jobs training
• FloridaStateCollegeatJacksonvillereceiveda$2.2millionawardaspartoftheAmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentActgrants.
• Thegrantshelpdisadvantagedareasfindawayoutofpovertybyprovidingjobtrainingandjobcreationinenergyefficiencyandrenewableenergyindustries.Anestimated2,500Floridianswillreceivetrainingthoughthesegrants.
• FSCJ’sgrantwillbeusedtoprovideeducationandjobtrainingfor390people.Aftercompletingtheprogram,282areexpectedtobeplacedinjobs.
Source: The Florida Times-Union, January 23, 2010
Jacksonville-to-Brazil trade swells as Asian trade crawls
• WhiletradeconnectionswithChinaholdgreatpromiseforthePortofJacksonville,tradewithBrazilisproducingreturnsmuchfaster.TheshipmentsofgoodstoandfromBrazilincreasedby20%injustthreemonths,betweenJulyandSeptemberof2009.
• “Weexpectverystrongdouble-digitgrowthintradebetweenJacksonvilleandBrazil,”saidFrancisLarkin,HamburgSüd’sseniorvicepresident.“TheBrazilianeconomyhasweatheredtheglobalcrisismuchbetterthanotherplacesandiscontinuingonastrongfooting.”
• BrazilisJacksonville’ssecondlargesttradingpartner.Theimportanceofthepartnershipcontinuestogrowwiththecity’seconomy,
accordingtoJorgeArce,directoroftheJacksonvilleofficeoftheU.S.CommercialService.
Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, February 5, 2010
Jacksonville mortgage delinquencies rise above 10%
• TherateofmortgagedelinquenciesinJacksonvillehasbeenrisingsteadilyoverthepastthreeyearsandisnowmorethan10%.Whilethatrateisstilllowerthanothermetropolitanareasinthestate,thenumberisexpectedtokeepgrowingin2010.
• AccordingtoTransUnionLLC,acompanythatmaintainscredithistories,delinquenciesof60daysormoregrewfrom2.2%in2006to10.3%in2009.
• Althoughdecreasesinhomepricesstimulatedhighersalesvolumeinrecentmonths,moreandmorepeoplearewalkingawayfromhomesthatarenowworthlessthantheirmortgages.
Source: The Florida Times-Union, March 3, 2010
LPS asks for $3 million to add 350 jobs
• LenderProcessingServicesInc.isaskingfor$3millionincityandstateincentivestocreate350full-timejobsinJacksonville.Thecityisbeingconsideredalongwiththreeothers.
• AccordingtoLPS,the350jobswouldhaveanannualpayrollof$15.7million.Thecompanywillalsoinvest$1.5millionincapitalintothecityitselects.
• “TheproposedprojectwillincreasethevisibilityofJacksonvilleasafinancialservicescenter,furtherstrengtheningatargetedindustryandcontinuetheredevelopmentofdowntownJacksonvilleandtheBrooklynneighborhood,”accordingtotheapplicationwiththeJacksonvilleEconomicDevelopmentCommission.
Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 8, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 41
J A C k s o n v I l l E
Jacksonville MSAIndustry Location Quotients
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
Total Government Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services Financial Activities
Information Transportation, Warehousing, and Util iti
Retail Trade Wholesale Trade
Trade, Transportation, and Util ities Manufacturing Construction
Natural Resources and Mining Private Service Providing
Service Producing Goods Producing
Total Private Total Nonagricultural Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
660.0
640.0
620.0
600.0
580.0
560.0
540.0
520.0
Jacksonville Payroll Employment(Thousands)
Jacksonville Payroll Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
55000.0
50000.0
45000.0
40000.0
35000.0
Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%
-2.0%-4.0%
Jacksonville Real Personal Income(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%
Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RateJacksonville Unemployment Rate
42 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
J A C k s o n v I l l E
Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL* March 2010 Forecast
2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 52.2 53.4 54.1 54.7 55.3 55.9 56.5 57.2 58 58.9 59.8 60.8 61.7 62.7 63.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 4 4.8 5.9 6 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 Wages and Salaries 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.6 31.1 31.5 32 32.6 33.1 33.7 Nonwage Income 24 25 25.4 25.8 26.1 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.5 30Real Personal Income (00$) 42.5 43.3 43.9 44.2 44.5 44.9 45.2 45.5 46 46.5 47.1 47.6 48.2 48.8 49.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 2 3 4.4 4.8 3.6 3 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8Per Capita Income (Ths) 38.9 39.9 40.5 40.9 41.3 41.7 42.1 42.5 43 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.2Real Per Capita Income (00$) 31.7 32.4 32.8 33.1 33.3 33.5 33.6 33.8 34.1 34.4 34.7 35 35.2 35.5 35.8Average Annual Wage (Ths) 45.9 46.4 46.8 47.3 47.6 47.9 48.1 48.4 48.6 49 49.2 49.5 49.9 50.3 50.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 4.3 3.9 4 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 592 589.4 590.6 589.7 590.5 593 596.1 600.8 606.6 612.3 618 624.2 630.7 637 643.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1 -2.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.9 1.9 2.7 3.3 3.7 3.9 4 4 4.1Manufacturing 29.2 29 29 29 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.3 30.7 31.1 31.4 31.7 32 32.3 32.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -6 -4.9 -3.4 -1.9 0 1.6 3.1 4.5 5.1 5.5 4.9 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.6Nonmanufacturing 562.8 560.4 561.6 560.7 561.3 563.5 566.2 570.5 575.9 581.2 586.6 592.5 598.7 604.7 610.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.9 -2.4 -1.4 -0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.8 1.7 2.6 3.1 3.6 3.9 4 4 4.1 Construction & Mining 35.4 34.3 33.4 32.6 32.5 32.5 32.7 33.1 33.5 34.1 34.7 35.3 35.9 36.7 37.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.8 -9.7 -8.9 -9.8 -8.3 -5.2 -2.1 1.5 3.3 4.7 5.9 6.6 7.1 7.7 8.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 128 127.3 126.9 126.8 126.8 127 127.8 129 130.4 131.7 133 134.1 135.2 136.3 137.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.4 -3.4 -3.1 -2 -0.9 -0.2 0.7 1.8 2.8 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.2 Wholesale Trade 27.1 27 27.1 27 27 27.1 27.4 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.8 29 29.4 29.7 29.9 Retail Trade 70.8 70.6 70.4 70.6 70.6 70.4 70.3 70.5 71.1 71.6 72.1 72.5 73 73.3 73.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 30.2 29.3 29.1 28.9 29 29.3 29.7 30.3 30.7 31.1 31.6 32 32.3 32.7 33 Information 9.1 9.1 8.8 8.8 8.9 9 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.5 -3.8 -5 -2.2 -2.2 -0.4 4.1 3.7 2.5 2.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.2 Financial Activities 57.5 57.1 57 56.8 56.4 56.3 56.4 56.8 57.1 57.5 57.8 58.2 58.5 58.7 58.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4 -4.2 -1.7 -0.8 -1.9 -1.4 -0.9 -0.1 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.7 Prof & Business Services 83.1 83.6 84.5 85.4 87 89 90 91.6 94.2 96.3 98.2 100.4 103 105.7 108.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -2.8 -0.7 1.7 4.6 6.5 6.5 7.3 8.3 8.3 9.1 9.6 9.4 9.8 10.2 Educ & Health Services 80.9 80.8 81 81.2 81.4 81.4 82 83 83.6 84.2 84.8 85.4 85.9 86.2 86.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.1 Leisure & Hospitality 65.5 65.2 65.2 65.6 65.5 65.5 65.6 65.5 65.3 65.6 66 66.6 67.2 67.7 68.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -1.8 -0.7 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.8 3.2 3.3 Other Services 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28 28 28.1 28.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 2.4 2.5 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1 Federal Government 17.1 17.1 19.1 17.9 17.4 17.2 17.1 17 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0 -0.5 11.5 4.4 1.6 0.9 -10.7 -5.1 -2.7 -1.9 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 State & Local Government 59 58.7 58.4 58.1 57.9 57.8 57.7 57.7 57.7 57.8 58.1 58.4 58.8 59.2 59.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1 -0.7 -1.4 -1.7 -1.8 -1.4 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.7 1.4 2 2.5 2.6
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 47596.4 47764.4 47900.7 48105.3 48382.2 48696.6 48984.3 49452.5 50027.5 50610.6 51199 51796 52426 52911.8 53423.2Population (Ths) 1340.3 1336.5 1335.7 1336.5 1338.5 1340.4 1342.2 1344.8 1348.6 1352.8 1357.4 1362.2 1367.4 1372.9 1378.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6Labor Force (Ths) 683.8 680.6 679.9 680 681 682.5 683.6 685.1 687.3 689.6 691.7 694.2 696.7 699.8 703 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 -1.2 -1.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6Unemployment Rate (%) 11.6 11.8 12 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.9 9.4 9 8.6 8.4Total Housing Starts 4132 3546 3844 4669 6119 7432 8632 9701 10634 11136 11798 12475 12885 13142 13411 Single-Family 3978 3155 3415 4174 5329 6443 7462 8303 8970 9390 9964 10382 10513 10585 10703 Multifamily 154 391 429 495 790 990 1170 1398 1663 1746 1834 2093 2372 2557 2707
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 43
J A C k s o n v I l l E
Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL March 2010 Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 36 38.3 41.7 45.4 50.1 51.9 52.6 51.7 54.4 56.9 60.3 64.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 6.5 8.7 8.9 10.4 3.6 1.3 -1.7 5.2 4.7 6 6.5 Wages and Salaries 20.8 22.4 23.9 25.6 27.9 29 28.9 28 28.8 30 31.8 34 Nonwage Income 15.2 16 17.8 19.8 22.2 23 23.7 23.7 25.6 26.9 28.5 30.2Real Personal Income (00$) 34.8 36.4 38.5 40.8 43.8 44.2 43.3 42.5 44 45.4 47.3 49.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 4.4 5.9 5.8 7.4 0.9 -2 -1.9 3.5 3.2 4.3 4.9Per Capita Income (Ths.) 30.6 31.9 33.9 36.1 39 39.8 39.8 38.7 40.7 42.3 44.3 46.5Real Per Capita Income (00$) 29.6 30.3 31.3 32.4 34.1 33.9 32.8 31.8 32.9 33.8 34.8 35.9Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 35.3 37.8 39.3 40.5 43 44.1 44.9 45.2 47 48.3 49.4 50.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 7.1 3.8 3.2 6 2.8 1.8 0.6 4 2.7 2.4 3
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 561.5 564.5 582 607.4 626.2 633.8 621.1 597.7 590 599.1 621.3 645.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 0.5 3.1 4.4 3.1 1.2 -2 -3.8 -1.3 1.5 3.7 4Manufacturing 34.4 33.3 33.3 33.5 33.3 32.6 31.8 29.8 29.1 30.1 31.5 32.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5 -3.1 -0.3 0.9 -0.8 -2.2 -2.4 -6.2 -2.6 3.6 4.8 3.3Nonmanufacturing 527.1 531.2 548.7 573.9 592.9 601.2 589.3 567.9 561 569 589.8 613.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 0.8 3.3 4.6 3.3 1.4 -2 -3.6 -1.2 1.4 3.6 4 Construction & Mining 34.1 36.7 40.9 45.4 50.1 49.2 42.9 36.6 33.2 33 35 37.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 7.4 11.5 11 10.3 -1.6 -13 -14.7 -9.2 -0.7 6.1 8.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 124.4 125 128.1 132.7 136.9 139.2 135.9 130.1 127 128.6 133.5 137.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 0.4 2.5 3.6 3.1 1.7 -2.3 -4.3 -2.4 1.3 3.9 3.2 Wholesale Trade 25.9 26.8 26.9 27.8 29.9 30.2 28.7 27.6 27 27.6 28.9 30 Retail Trade 68.1 68.8 71.2 73.9 74.8 76.5 75.4 71.8 70.5 70.6 72.3 74 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 30.4 29.4 30.1 31.1 32.2 32.5 31.8 30.7 29.1 30 31.8 33.2 Information 13.2 12.4 11.6 11.9 11.1 10.1 9.9 9.2 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.2 -6.1 -6.4 2.4 -6.8 -8.5 -2.2 -7.4 -3.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 Financial Activities 57.7 57.6 58.4 59.3 59.8 60.1 60.5 58.1 56.8 56.7 58 58.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 -0.1 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.6 -4 -2.2 -0.3 2.4 1.6 Prof & Business Services 86.1 84.1 85.9 91.7 96.8 94.3 88.4 84.5 85.1 91.2 99.5 109.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.3 -2.3 2.2 6.7 5.5 -2.6 -6.2 -4.4 0.7 7.2 9.1 9.9 Educ & Health Services 63.5 64.7 67.9 71.3 74.5 77.9 80.4 80.6 81.1 82.5 85.1 86.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 1.9 5 4.9 4.5 4.6 3.2 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.1 2.1 Leisure & Hospitality 52.5 53.3 56.3 60.4 62.1 65.9 66.7 65.7 65.4 65.5 66.3 68.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.6 5.5 7.3 2.9 6.1 1.2 -1.5 -0.5 0.1 1.3 3 Other Services 24.9 25.7 26.4 26.8 27.6 28.2 27.7 26.9 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 3 2.6 1.5 3.1 2.3 -1.8 -3.2 1.9 1.3 0.7 1 Federal Government 17.7 18 17.8 17.4 16.9 17 17.1 17.1 17.9 17.1 16.8 16.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 1.6 -1.3 -2.2 -2.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 4.3 -4.6 -1.3 -0.6 State & Local Government 52.8 53.6 55.4 57.1 57 59.1 59.8 59.1 58.3 57.7 58.3 59.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 1.7 3.3 3 0 3.7 1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -1 1 2.6
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 40333 43104 44935 47030 49852 49605 48611 47291 48038 49290 51508 53671Population (Ths) 1177.1 1201.3 1229.7 1257 1283.8 1305.1 1321.7 1335.8 1336.8 1344 1359.9 1381.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6Labor Force (Ths) 597.5 599.4 607.5 628.5 649.8 670 684.4 685.3 680.4 684.6 693.1 705 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.3 1.3 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.1 0.1 -0.7 0.6 1.2 1.7Unemployment Rate (%) 5.3 5 4.6 3.7 3.3 3.8 5.8 10.2 12 11.2 9.6 8.2Total Housing Starts 14252 15042 17883 23879 16715 10512 7225 4745 4544 9100 12074 13484 Single-Family 11058 12825 13858 18655 12256 7476 5318 3489 4018 7794 10062 10783 Multifamily 3194 2217 4024 5224 4459 3036 1908 1256 526 1305 2011 2701
44 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
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P r o F I l E s
TheLakelandMSAiscomprisedonlyofPolkCounty.Itislocatedinthewesterncenterofthestateandisheavilyagriculturallybased,especiallyincitrus.Itishometoafewattractions,includingCypressGardensandFantasyofFlight.Also,theDetroitTigersandClevelandIndiansconductspringtraininginLakelandandWinterHaven,respectively.
QUICkFACTS:• Populationestimateof580,594asofJuly1,
2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• Acivilianlaborforceof272,841inApril
2009(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
• Anunemploymentrateof10.3%asofApril2009,notseasonallyadjusted.Thisamountsto27,977unemployedpeople.(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
TOPAREAEMPLOyERS:• PublixSuperMarkets,Inc.–6,644
employees• LakelandRegionalMedicalCenter–4,540
employees• CityofLakeland–2,600employees• Geico–1,850employees• WatsonClinic–1,500employees• GCServices–1,000employees• RoomsToGo–900employees• FedExNationalLTL–850employees• SaddleCreekCorporation–680employees• SummitConsulting–654employees
Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council
o U T l o o k s U m m A r I E s
TheLakelandMSAwillshowlowlevelsofgrowthinmostoftheeconomicindicators.Personalincomeisexpectedtogrow5.0percentannually,whilethepercapitaincomelevelwillbeat26.7,thesecondlowestinthestate.Averageannualwagegrowthshouldbe2.5percent,tiedforlowestinthestate,andtheaverageannualwagelevelisexpectedtobeat40.2,alsooneofthelowestinthestate.Populationgrowthisexpectedtobethesecondhighestinthestate,averaginganannualgrowthrateof1.5percent.GrossMetroProductwillbeatalevelof13,577.20(Mill).
Employmentgrowthisexpectedtobe0.8percentannually.Theunemploymentrateforthemetrowillaverage11.3percent,thesecondhighestinthestate.
TheManufacturingsectorisexpectedtobethefastestgrowingsectorinthearea,averaginga2.2percentaverageannualgrowthrate.ThisisfollowedbytheEducationandHealthServicessectorandtheInformationsector,bothaveragingagrowthrateof1.5percentayear.TheProfessional&BusinessServicessectoristheonlysectorthatwillexperienceadecline,withanannualgrowthrateof-0.2percent.
m E T r o n E w s s U m m A r I E s
Lake Wales Gets Restoration Deal on Grand Hotel; Begins Within Two Months
• TheCityCommissionapprovedadevelopmentagreementtorestorethe83-year-oldDixieWalesbilthotel,alsoknownastheGrandHotel,inLakeWales.
• TheagreementwithDixie-WalesbiltLLCclearedthewayforaninitial$1.5millioninrestorationworktotheexteriorofthebuilding.Thegroupmustfinishthisfirststageofrestorationwithin16monthsorrisklosingtheproperty.
• Dixie-Walesbiltplanstospend$6milliontobuildretailspaceandupto40condominiums,allwhilerestoringthebuildingtoits1927appearance.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 45
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• Afterdecadesofvacancyandneglect,thecityacquiredthedilapidatedstructureinDecember2007.Restorationisexpectedtobeginwithinthenexttwomonths.
Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 4, 2010
Publix earnings jump
• PublixSuperMarketsInc.,headquarteredinLakeland,reportedincreasedsalesandnetearningsin2009,comparedto2008.
• Thegrocerychain’ssalesincreased1.6%,from$23.9billionin2008to$24.3billionin2009.Thesalesincreasecamefromnewsupermarkets,whichincreasedsales4.8%,outweighingthe3.2%decreaseinfromcomparablestoresales.
• Netearningsincreasedfrom$1.09millionin2008to$1.16millionin2009.
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, February 26, 2010
CSX Industrial Park Approved By Winter Haven Planning Commission
• TheWinterHavenPlanningCommissionapprovedaproposaltorevisethegrowthmapinordertoaccommodatethenextphaseoftheCSXindustrialparkdevelopment.
• Theproposalinvolvedchanging932acresfrominstitutionallandtoindustrialandconservation.
• Developmentoftheindustrialparkinthefirstfiveyearswillinclude500,000squarefeetofwarehousespace,50,000squarefeetoflightindustrialspace,and30,000squarefeetofofficespace.
• ThenextstepfordeveloperEvansvilleWesternRailwayissubmittinganapplicationtodevelopthesite.
Source: The Lakeland Ledger, March 2, 2010
Development Potential Awaits Polk Rail Stop Area
• PolkCountyrepresentstheleast-developedstopontheplannedhigh-speedrailsystem,butalsothestopwiththegreatestdevelopmentpotential.Otherstopsonthe84-mileroute—DowntownTampa,Disney,andOrlandoInternationalAirport—arealreadysignificantlybuildup.
• ThePolkCountyTransportationPlanningOrganizationrecentlyrecommendedpossiblelocationsfortherailstationinPolkCounty.ThefirstchoiceisneartheplannedUSFPolytechniccampus.
• Thehigh-speedrailsystemreceivedaboostearlierthisyearafterPresidentObamaannouncedthatthefederalgovernmentwouldspend$1.25billionontheproject.
Source: The Lakeland Ledger, March 5, 2010
S.R. 60 Plan Gets Its First Approval by Planning Commission
• ThePolkCountyCommissionvoted4-3toincludetheGatewaySelectedAreaPlaninthecounty’sgrowthplan,thefirststeptowardformingacomprehensiveplanfora48,111-acrecorridorbetweenLakeWalesandBartowonStateRoad60.
• Theplan’skeyprovisionsincludesupportingland-usemappingtofosterexistingbusinessesandjobcreation,workingwithcitiestomaintainorimprovetransportationandtransit,anddevelopingefficientlanduse,infrastructure,andpublicservices.
• Theplanwasoriginallyproposedin2008todealwithexpectedgrowthpressuresfromthedevelopmentoftheCSXfreightterminalinWinterHaven,aswellassurroundingprojects.
Source: The Lakeland Ledger, March 11, 2010
46 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
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Lakeland MSAIndustry Location Quotients
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Total Government Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services Financial Activities
Information Transportation, Warehousing, and Util iti
Retail Trade Wholesale Trade
Trade, Transportation, and Util ities Manufacturing
Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Private Service Providing
Service Producing Goods Producing
Total Private Total Nonagricultural Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
220.0
210.0
200.0
190.0
180.0
170.0
160.0
Lakeland Payroll Employment(Thousands)
Lakeland Payroll Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
15000.0
14000.0
13000.0
12000.0
11000.0
10000.0
Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%
-2.0%-4.0%
Lakeland Real Personal Income(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%
Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RateLakeland Unemployment Rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 47
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Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL* March 2010 Forecast
2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 18.4 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.7 22 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 4.4 5 5.9 5.6 4.3 4.1 4 4.2 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 Wages and Salaries 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 8 8 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.6 Nonwage Income 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4Real Personal Income (00$) 15 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.9 17 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 2.3 3.2 4.4 4.4 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.7Per Capita Income (Ths) 31.1 31.8 32.1 32.4 32.6 32.9 33 33.3 33.5 33.8 34.1 34.4 34.7 35 35.2Real Per Capita Income (00$) 25.3 25.8 26 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27 27.1 27.2 27.3Average Annual Wage (Ths) 38.2 38.5 38.8 39.1 39.3 39.5 39.7 39.8 40 40.2 40.4 40.6 40.8 41.1 41.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 4.3 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 198.6 197.5 196.6 195.9 195.5 195.7 196 196.9 197.9 198.8 200 201.4 203 204.4 206 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.4 -2.7 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -0.9 -0.3 0.5 1.3 1.6 2 2.3 2.6 2.9 3Manufacturing 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.9 15 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.1 -5.9 -3 -2.1 0.3 1.8 3.1 4.3 4.8 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.5Nonmanufacturing 183.8 182.7 181.8 181.1 180.6 180.7 180.8 181.5 182.4 183 184.1 185.4 186.8 188.1 189.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -3 -2.4 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.1 -0.6 0.2 1 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.9 Construction & Mining 11.7 11.3 11 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -10 -9.4 -9.2 -10.3 -9 -5.9 -2.7 0.8 2.8 4.2 5.4 6 6.3 7.1 7.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 43.9 43.6 43.5 43.5 43.5 43.6 43.8 44.3 44.8 45.2 45.6 46 46.4 46.7 47 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4 -5.4 -4.5 -2.9 -0.9 -0.1 0.8 1.9 2.9 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.1 Wholesale Trade 9 9 9 8.9 9 9 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 Retail Trade 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.2 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.9 23.9 24.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 11.5 11.2 11.1 11 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 Information 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 -3.8 -3.7 -1.4 -1.5 0.5 4.9 4.7 3.5 3.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.4 Financial Activities 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 -2.9 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 -1.5 -1.1 -0.2 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.7 Prof & Business Services 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 28 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.4 -2.8 -2.2 -2.8 -4.1 -3.4 -3.1 -2.2 -1.3 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 1.9 3.9 5.2 Educ & Health Services 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.7 30.9 31 31.1 31.2 31.4 31.5 31.5 31.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3 2.2 2.6 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 Leisure & Hospitality 16 15.9 15.9 16 16 16 16 16 15.9 15.9 16 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5 -2.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 1.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 Other Services 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 -0.1 0 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 Federal Government 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 0.4 16.6 9.8 1.9 -0.9 -11.9 -6.4 -2.7 -1.8 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 State & Local Government 29 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1 0.4 0.2 -0.5 -1.9 -1.6 -1.4 -1 -0.6 -0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.3
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 12992.4 13078.5 13071.6 13094.8 13123.7 13180.9 13221 13314.7 13427.1 13530.9 13659.1 13794 13937.6 14037.8 14151.2Population (Ths) 594.1 593.4 594.2 595.4 597.4 599.2 601 602.9 605.4 608.2 611.2 614.3 617.3 620.5 623.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2 2 2.1Labor Force (Ths) 274.3 273.8 273.7 273.8 273.9 274 273.9 274.1 274.4 275 275.4 276 276.8 277.7 278.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1 1.2Unemployment Rate (%) 13 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.5 12.1 11.7 11.2 10.7 10.2 9.8 9.4 9.1Total Housing Starts 1391 1142 1337 1781 2509 3264 4009 4710 5313 5559 5893 6179 6291 6305 6405 Single-Family 1391 1140 1353 1802 2493 3209 3910 4560 5089 5321 5644 5884 5947 5935 6010 Multifamily 0 3 -16 -22 17 55 100 150 224 238 249 294 344 371 395
*Quarterly at an annual rate
48 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
l A k E l A n d
Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL March 2010 Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 12.8 13.5 14.9 16.3 17.7 18.3 18.6 18.2 19.2 20 21 22.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 5.4 10.3 9.8 8.4 3.4 1.4 -1.8 5.2 4.2 5.1 5.4 Wages and Salaries 5.9 6.2 6.6 7.3 7.9 8 7.9 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.6 Nonwage Income 6.9 7.3 8.2 9 9.9 10.3 10.7 10.7 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.5Real Personal Income (00$) 12.4 12.8 13.8 14.7 15.5 15.6 15.3 15 15.5 15.9 16.5 17.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 3.3 7.5 6.6 5.5 0.7 -1.9 -2 3.6 2.6 3.5 3.8Per Capita Income (Ths.) 25.6 26.4 28.4 30.1 31.6 31.8 31.8 30.8 32.2 33.2 34.3 35.4Real Per Capita Income (00$) 24.8 25 26.2 27 27.6 27.1 26.2 25.3 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.4Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 31.8 33.3 33.7 35.1 36.8 37.3 37.6 37.6 39 39.8 40.5 41.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2 4.5 1.5 4 4.8 1.4 0.8 -0.1 3.7 2.1 1.8 2.4
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 182.9 184.7 195.6 208.1 212.6 212.7 208.5 200.3 196.3 196.6 200.8 206.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 1 5.9 6.4 2.2 0.1 -2 -4 -2 0.1 2.1 2.8Manufacturing 18.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 17.9 17.2 16.3 15.2 14.8 15.3 16 16.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 -1.9 0.6 0.4 -2.2 -3.5 -5.2 -7.1 -2.7 3.5 4.6 3.2Nonmanufacturing 164.4 166.6 177.4 189.8 194.8 195.5 192.2 185.1 181.6 181.3 184.8 190 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 1.3 6.5 7 2.6 0.4 -1.7 -3.7 -1.9 -0.1 1.9 2.8 Construction & Mining 13.6 12.9 14.4 16.2 16.9 15.8 13.7 12.1 10.9 10.8 11.4 12.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 -5.1 11.4 12.6 4.1 -6.5 -13.4 -11.8 -9.5 -1.3 5.5 7.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 44 42.1 43.9 47.6 48.9 49 47.7 45.1 43.5 44.1 45.8 47.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3 -4.2 4.3 8.4 2.8 0.1 -2.6 -5.6 -3.4 1.4 3.8 3 Wholesale Trade 8.5 9.1 9.4 10.3 10.4 10.1 9.6 9.1 9 9.2 9.6 9.9 Retail Trade 25 22.5 23.5 25.3 26.1 26.4 26.2 24.4 23.3 23.2 23.7 24.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 10.4 10.5 11 12.1 12.5 12.5 12 11.5 11.1 11.5 12.2 12.8 Information 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 2 2 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 -7.9 -1.1 3 2.9 -7.8 -4.3 -7.1 -2.6 3.4 2.9 2.4 Financial Activities 10.8 11 10.9 11.1 11.6 11.8 12 11.7 11.4 11.3 11.6 11.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 2 -1 1.8 4.1 2.4 1.2 -2.7 -2.5 -0.4 2.3 1.6 Prof & Business Services 21.6 26.4 31.7 34.2 33.9 33 32 29.9 29 28.3 28.3 29.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 22.2 20 7.9 -0.8 -2.5 -3 -6.6 -3 -2.5 0 4.7 Educ & Health Services 22.5 22.9 24.1 25.6 26.6 28 29.1 29.8 30.4 30.8 31.3 31.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 1.7 5.3 6.1 4.2 5.1 3.9 2.4 2 1.2 1.7 1.1 Leisure & Hospitality 15.8 15 15.3 16.5 17 17.4 17.1 16.1 15.9 16 16.1 16.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 -5.4 2.2 7.7 2.7 2.9 -1.8 -6 -1.1 0.1 0.8 2.1 Other Services 7.4 7.5 8 9 9.5 9 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 0.9 7.6 11.9 5.5 -5.3 -3.9 -1.9 0.3 0.6 0 0.2 Federal Government 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3 -3 -2.4 4.4 -0.6 1.2 -0.1 -5.3 7.1 -5.6 -1.1 -0.5 State & Local Government 24.9 25.3 25.5 26 26.7 27.9 28.4 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.6 29.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 1.6 1 2 2.6 4.3 2 1.3 -0.5 -1.1 0.8 2.4
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 11227 11659 12188 13014 13460 13272 13185 12885 13092 13286 13730 14200Population (Ths) 500.4 510.9 524.8 542.7 560.9 575.9 584.4 591.2 595.1 602.1 612.7 625.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.4 3.3 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.1Labor Force (Ths) 238.1 239.7 247.4 254.2 260.6 266.4 272.8 274 273.8 274.1 275.8 279.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.7 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.4 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.6 1.3Unemployment Rate (%) 5.8 5.5 4.9 4 3.6 4.5 6.7 11.7 13.4 12.3 10.5 9Total Housing Starts 4907 6789 9088 12877 9528 4384 3223 1255 1692 4324 5980 6458 Single-Family 4484 6169 8297 11725 8279 4004 2431 1253 1697 4192 5699 6051 Multifamily 423 620 790 1152 1249 380 792 2 -5 132 281 407
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 49
m I A m I – F o r T l A U d E r d A l E – m I A m I B E A C H
P r o F I l E s
TheMiami–FortLauderdale–PompanoBeachMSAiscomprisedofMiami-DadeCounty,BrowardCounty,andPalmBeachCounty.LocatedonthesoutheastcoastofFlorida,thisareaishometomanysportsteams,suchastheMiamiDolphins,theMiamiHeat,theFloridaMarlins,andtheFloridaPanthers.Othermajorbusinessesalsoresideinthismetro,includingtheMiamiSeaquarium,theUniversityofMiami,andFloridaInternationalUniversity.
QUICkFACTS:• Metroareapopulationestimateof5,414,772
asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• Miami-DadeCountypopulationestimateof
2,398,245asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• BrowardCountypopulationestimateof1,751,234asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• PalmBeachCountypopulationestimateof1,265,293asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• Acivilianlaborforceof2,831,077inApril2009forthemetroarea(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
• Anunemploymentrateof8.5%asofApril2009,notseasonallyadjusted.Thisamountsto240,849unemployedpeopleforthemetroarea.(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
TOPAREAEMPLOyERS:• Miami-DadeCountyPublicSchools–
54,861employees• Miami-DadeCounty–32,000employees• FederalGovernment–20,400employees• FloridaStateGovernment–17,000
employees• PublixSuperMarkets–11,760employees• BaptistHealthSouthFlorida–10,826
employees
• JacksonHealthSystem–10,500employees• UniversityofMiami–9,874employees• AmericanAirlines–9,000employees• Miami-DadeCollege–6,500employees
Source: The Beacon Council
o U T l o o k s U m m A r I E s
TheMiami–FortLauderdale–MiamiBeachareaisexpectedtoshowmoderategrowthintheeconomicindicators.Personalincomeisexpectedtogrow5.1percentannually,andthepercapitaincomelevel,at38.2,isthesecondhighestinFlorida.Averageannualwagegrowthwillbe2.8percent.Theaverageannualwagelevelisexpectedtobe51.6,thehighestinthestate.Miamiisexpectedtoaveragepopulationgrowthof0.4percenteachyear.TheareahasthehighestGrossMetroProductinthestate,atalevelof221,935.55(Mill).
Employmentisexpectedtogrowatanaveragerateof1.7percenteachyear,whileunemploymentisexpectedtobe10.0percent.
Miami’sfastestgrowingsectorisexpectedtobetheProfessional&BusinessServicessectorat7.0percentannually,followedbyManufacturingatanaverageof1.7percentgrowtheachyearandEducationandHealthServiceswitha1.4percentgrowthrate.TheState&LocalGovernment,Financial,andFederalGovernmentsectorsaretheonlysectorsthatwillexperiencedeclines,withaverageannualgrowthratesof-0.1percent,-0.3percent,and-0.7percentrespectively.
m E T r o n E w s s U m m A r I E s
Miami taxpayers may be hit by city’s financial woes
• Miamitaxpayerscouldendupwiththeburdenofseverefinesandsanctionsrelatedtoafederalinvestigationintothecity’sbudget;onethatrevealedamisrepresentationofeconomicfiguresbyMiamiofficials.
50 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
m I A m I – F o r T l A U d E r d A l E – m I A m I B E A C H
• HavingdealtwithsimilaractionsfromMiamiinthepast,theSecuritiesandExchangeCommissioniscurrentlyinvestigatingthepotentiallyillegalbook-balancingtransferof$26.4million.
• ForacitywithabudgetcrisisassevereasMiami’s,anotherburdenontaxpayerswillundoubtedlyslowtheprogressofpublicworksandservices.
Source: The Miami Herald, January 15, 2010
Critics fuming over Davie’s $12.5 million land buy
• ThetownofDaviehasspentoverone-thirdofitsreservefundonlandthatmanysaythecitywillneverneed.Thetotalamountofmoneyspentwasroughly$9million.
• TownspokesmanBrauliaRosadefendedthecity’sdecisiontopurchasetheland,statingthat“valuesaregoingtostartgoingup.Itwasanopportunitytobuybeforelandpricesgoup.”
• Criticsofthepurchaseclaimthatthedealcostthetowndesperatelyscarcefunds,arguingthatinlightoftheeconomicslump,themoneycouldhavebeenputtowardsamoreconstructivecause.
Source: The Miami Herald, February 4, 2010
Jackson Health System to cut 900 jobs
• Inanattempttosaveupto$120million,financiallytroubledJacksonHealthSystemhasreleasedaplantocutroughly900jobs.
• TheMiami-basedhealthsystemthatemploys12,000claimsthatthecompanywouldfacea$200millionbudgetdeficitifitdidn’ttrimitslaborforceby900.
• Miami-DadeCommissionerSallyHeymanberatedJacksonrepresentatives,arguingthat“grossincompetence”alongwithacompletelyinefficientcostcontainmentstructureresultedintheirfinancialcrisis.
Source: The Miami Herald, February 23, 2010
Miami Dolphins drop push for bill to raise hotel taxes for stadium upgrades
• Afterseveralweeksoflobbying,theMiamiDolphinshavebackedoffanefforttogetabillpassedthatwouldallowforanincreaseinthehoteltaxrateinMiamiDadefrom6%to7%.
• Theteamintendedtousetherevenuefromthetaxtofundover$200millioninrenovationstotheDolphinsStadium,anupdatetheyclaimedwouldbecrucialinattractingfutureSuperBowlstothecity.
• SeveralpublicofficialsopposedthebillsuchasMikeBennett,aRepublicansenatorfromBradenton,stating,“Idecidednottofilethebillbecausethey’restilltalkingabouthowtomakethisworkfortheMiamiDolphinsandthecitizensofMiami-Dade.”
Source: The Miami Herald, February 23, 2010
In Miami, Haitian workers struggle to send money home
• UnitedbythetragicearthquakeinHaiti,agroupofHaitianstreetvendorsinMiamihaveboundtogetherinanefforttosendasmuchmoneytotheirlovedonesfromtheirhomecountryaspossible.
• Thegroupoffemaleshopkeepersstruggledtosendmoneyhometotheirimpoverishedfamiliesbeforetheearthquake.Butnowthatitismorecrucialthanevertoprovidesupport,thestreetvendorsaretakingwhatevermeansnecessarytoraisefunds.
• TheflounderingMiamieconomyhasresultedinanoticeabledeclineintrafficforthestreetmarkets,afactorthathasleftmanyfeelinghelplesstoaidthesufferingoftheirhomenation.
Source: The Miami Herald, February 26, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 51
m I A m I – F o r T l A U d E r d A l E – m I A m I B E A C H
Miami - Ford Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSAIndustry Location Quotients
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
Total Government Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services Financial Activities
Information Transportation, Warehousing, and Util iti
Retail Trade Wholesale Trade
Trade, Transportation, and Util ities Manufacturing Construction
Natural Resources and Mining Private Service Providing
Service Producing Goods Producing
Total Private Total Nonagricultural Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
2500.0
2400.0
2300.0
2200.0
2100.0
2000.0
Miami Payroll Employment(Thousands)
Miami Payroll Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
240000.0
220000.0
200000.0
180000.0
160000.0
140000.0
Miami Real Gross Metro Product(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%
-2.0%-4.0%
Miami Real Personal Income(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%
Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RateMiami Unemployment Rate
52 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
m I A m I – F o r T l A U d E r d A l E – m I A m I B E A C H
Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL* March 2010 Forecast
2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 236.4 242.6 245.4 248.4 250.8 253.4 255.6 258.2 261.4 265 268.7 272.3 275.9 279.9 284.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 4.1 5.1 6.1 6.1 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 Wages and Salaries 110.9 111.8 112.8 113.7 114.6 115.6 116.7 117.9 119.5 121.1 122.7 124.5 126.4 128.5 130.5 Nonwage Income 125.5 130.8 132.6 134.7 136.2 137.7 138.9 140.2 141.9 143.8 146 147.9 149.5 151.4 153.5Real Personal Income (00$) 192.6 196.8 199 200.7 202 203.3 204.2 205.4 207.1 209.2 211.4 213.4 215.5 217.7 220.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 2 3.3 4.6 4.9 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.5 3.9 4 4.1 4.1Per Capita Income (Ths) 43.2 44.5 45.1 45.7 46.1 46.6 46.9 47.4 47.9 48.5 49 49.6 50.1 50.7 51.3Real Per Capita Income (00$) 35.2 36.1 36.6 36.9 37.1 37.4 37.5 37.7 37.9 38.3 38.6 38.9 39.1 39.4 39.7Average Annual Wage (Ths) 48.6 49.2 49.6 50 50.3 50.6 50.9 51.1 51.4 51.7 51.9 52.2 52.5 53 53.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 4.3 3.8 3.9 3.5 3 2.6 2.1 2 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 2266.6 2261 2261.7 2260.1 2262.7 2270.6 2280.3 2295.2 2313.3 2331.2 2350.3 2370.4 2392.1 2412.7 2433 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 -2 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5Manufacturing 83.3 82.7 82.6 82.5 83.1 83.8 84.9 86 87.1 88.2 88.9 89.8 90.5 91.3 91.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.1 -7.5 -4.9 -3.1 -0.3 1.4 2.9 4.2 4.9 5.3 4.7 4.4 3.9 3.5 3.3Nonmanufacturing 2183.3 2178.4 2179.1 2177.6 2179.6 2186.8 2195.4 2209.2 2226.2 2243 2261.4 2280.6 2301.5 2321.5 2341.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5 -1.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.6 3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 Construction & Mining 103.5 100 97.3 94.9 94.5 94.9 95.5 96.6 98 99.6 101.5 103.4 105.5 107.9 110.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -17.2 -16.6 -13.8 -13.1 -8.7 -5.1 -1.8 1.8 3.8 5 6.3 7 7.6 8.3 9.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 514.8 512.2 510.4 509.5 509.1 508.9 511.1 515.3 519.9 524.2 528.7 532.2 536.1 539.4 542.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -3 -2.8 -2.7 -1.9 -1.1 -0.6 0.1 1.2 2.1 3 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 Wholesale Trade 143.8 143.5 143.8 142.7 142.7 142.9 144.3 146.5 147.8 149.2 150.5 151.7 153.3 154.7 155.8 Retail Trade 278.2 277.5 276.5 277 276.8 275.5 274.7 275.3 277.3 278.6 280.4 281.6 282.8 283.8 285.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 92.8 89.9 89.2 88.5 88.8 89.6 90.7 92.2 93.2 94.6 95.9 96.9 98 98.9 99.8 Information 47.6 47.3 45.9 46.2 46.8 47.4 48.1 48.2 48.3 48.7 49 49.1 49.3 49.6 49.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.7 -3.4 -4.6 -2.9 -1.6 0.4 4.6 4.4 3.1 2.7 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.9 Financial Activities 161.1 159.9 159.4 158.9 157.7 157.2 157 157.6 158.3 159 159.8 160.6 161.2 161.4 161.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.4 -4.4 -3 -2.4 -2.1 -1.7 -1.5 -0.8 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.1 Prof & Business Services 348.2 353.3 358 361.6 368.4 376.5 381.1 387.4 396.8 404.2 411.3 419.5 428.7 438.3 447 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 2.9 5.3 5.4 5.8 6.6 6.4 7.1 7.7 7.4 7.9 8.3 8 8.4 8.7 Educ & Health Services 334.7 334.2 334.6 335.4 335.8 335.5 337.2 339.9 341.8 343.5 345 346.7 348.2 349.1 350.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.3 2 1.9 1.6 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 247.2 246.3 245.9 247.1 246.5 246.2 246.3 245.5 244.6 245.1 246.4 248 249.9 251.6 253 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -2.9 -0.5 -1 -0.3 0 0.2 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 0 1 2.2 2.6 2.7 Other Services 102.3 102.5 102.4 103 103.1 103.5 103.6 103.7 103.9 104 104 104.1 104.4 104.5 104.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 Federal Government 33.6 34.3 38.5 35.9 34.1 33.7 33.4 33.3 33.2 33 32.9 32.9 32.8 32.8 32.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 0.9 14.1 6.8 1.4 -1.6 -13.1 -7.3 -2.7 -2 -1.5 -1.4 -1 -0.8 -0.7 State & Local Government 290.5 288.6 286.6 285.1 283.8 283 282 281.6 281.4 281.6 282.8 284.1 285.5 286.9 288.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 -2.1 -2.3 -1.9 -1.6 -1.3 -0.8 -0.5 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.9 2
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 209267 210481 211071 211987 213058 214388 215502 217354 219580 221857 224240 226635 229154 231004 232973Population (Ths) 5470.1 5446.8 5437.3 5434.4 5437.2 5440.7 5443.4 5449.1 5458 5468.3 5480.3 5493.5 5508.1 5523.6 5540.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1Labor Force (Ths) 2858.9 2844.8 2837.4 2833.1 2833.1 2833.3 2831.9 2832.9 2837 2842.9 2848.7 2855.7 2863 2871.2 2879.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1 1.1Unemployment Rate (%) 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.5 11.2 10.9 10.7 10.3 10 9.6 9.2 8.9 8.5 8.2Total Housing Starts 2809 2495 2732 4136 7188 10083 13104 16158 19080 20765 22602 24934 26960 28567 30084 Single-Family 2355 1485 1898 3256 5338 7515 9813 12146 13924 15269 16653 17828 18506 19101 19724 Multifamily 454 1010 834 880 1850 2568 3291 4012 5157 5496 5950 7107 8454 9466 10360
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 53
m I A m I – F o r T l A U d E r d A l E – m I A m I B E A C H
Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL March 2010 Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 174.2 179.7 195.6 211.9 229.9 237.3 239.3 234.3 246.8 257.1 270.5 286.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 3.1 8.8 8.4 8.5 3.2 0.9 -2.1 5.3 4.2 5.2 5.8 Wages and Salaries 85.4 89.5 95.6 103.5 110.6 114.3 113.5 110 113.2 117.4 123.7 131.5 Nonwage Income 88.9 90.2 100 108.4 119.3 123 125.8 124.3 133.6 139.7 146.8 154.6Real Personal Income (00$) 168.7 170.5 180.8 190.3 200.8 201.9 197.1 192.5 199.6 205 212.4 221.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3 1.1 6 5.2 5.6 0.5 -2.4 -2.3 3.7 2.7 3.6 4.2Per Capita Income (Ths.) 33.5 34.1 36.6 39.2 42.4 43.8 44 42.9 45.4 47.2 49.3 51.6Real Per Capita Income (00$) 32.4 32.4 33.9 35.2 37.1 37.2 36.2 35.2 36.7 37.6 38.7 39.9Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 38.6 40.3 41.9 43.7 45.8 47 47.7 47.9 49.8 51 52.1 53.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 4.6 3.7 4.4 4.8 2.7 1.5 0.4 3.9 2.4 2.2 2.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 2198.7 2204.7 2270.1 2355.1 2401 2416.5 2364.7 2281.5 2261.4 2289.9 2361 2441.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 0.3 3 3.7 2 0.6 -2.1 -3.5 -0.9 1.3 3.1 3.4Manufacturing 112.4 103.4 100.8 101.1 100.6 98.6 93.2 86.1 82.7 85.5 89.4 92 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.7 -8 -2.5 0.3 -0.5 -2 -5.5 -7.6 -4 3.3 4.6 2.9Nonmanufacturing 2086.3 2101.3 2169.3 2253.9 2300.4 2318 2271.5 2195.4 2178.7 2204.4 2271.6 2349.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 0.7 3.2 3.9 2.1 0.8 -2 -3.3 -0.8 1.2 3.1 3.4 Construction & Mining 120.9 122.4 131.5 147.4 164.3 161.1 135.5 111.3 96.6 96.3 102.5 111.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1 1.2 7.5 12.1 11.5 -2 -15.9 -17.8 -13.2 -0.4 6.5 9.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 516.4 510.9 517.4 530.5 543.8 550 541.6 521.3 510.3 513.8 530.3 544 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 -1.1 1.3 2.5 2.5 1.1 -1.5 -3.7 -2.1 0.7 3.2 2.6 Wholesale Trade 132.4 134.3 138.7 141.2 144.6 147.6 145.3 144.6 143.2 145.4 151.2 156.3 Retail Trade 286.8 282.7 285.6 294 303.4 306 300.5 283.7 277 275.7 280.9 285.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 97.1 93.9 93.2 95.3 95.7 96.5 95.8 93 89.1 91.4 96.3 100.2 Information 61.8 57.5 56.6 55.9 53.2 52 50.4 48.1 46.6 48 49 50 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.2 -6.9 -1.6 -1.1 -4.8 -2.4 -3 -4.7 -3.1 3.1 2.2 1.9 Financial Activities 162.8 164.3 170 178.2 183.5 181.3 172.2 163.9 159 157.5 160.1 161.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1 3.5 4.8 2.9 -1.2 -5 -4.8 -3 -0.9 1.7 1 Prof & Business Services 324.2 325.6 348.4 375.1 375.7 371.1 356.5 343.7 360.3 385.4 415.9 450.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0 0.4 7 7.7 0.2 -1.2 -3.9 -3.6 4.8 7 7.9 8.4 Educ & Health Services 274.6 284 293.5 301.5 307.9 318.8 328.8 331.7 335 338.6 345.9 351.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.1 3.5 3.1 0.9 1 1.1 2.1 1.5 Leisure & Hospitality 225 229.4 240.3 247.5 251.6 257.9 257.4 249.5 246.4 245.6 247.4 253.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 2 4.7 3 1.7 2.5 -0.2 -3.1 -1.2 -0.3 0.7 2.5 Other Services 94 95.8 97.7 99 99.3 100.8 103.6 101.9 102.7 103.7 104.1 104.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 1.9 2 1.3 0.3 1.5 2.8 -1.6 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.6 Federal Government 32.1 34.1 34.2 34.5 34 34 34 33.7 35.7 33.4 32.9 32.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 6.2 0.4 1 -1.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.8 5.8 -6.4 -1.5 -0.7 State & Local Government 274.7 277.4 279.8 284.3 287.1 291.1 291.6 290.2 286 282 283.5 289.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 1 0.9 1.6 1 1.4 0.2 -0.5 -1.4 -1.4 0.5 2
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 181143 187609 196701 212212 220989 222317 219025 212141 211649 216706 225471 233916Population (Ths) 5203.2 5267 5338.5 5399.9 5420.2 5421 5444.7 5463.4 5438.9 5447.8 5487.5 5549.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.4 0 0.4 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.7 1.1Labor Force (Ths) 2573.3 2587.4 2618.8 2683.7 2750.7 2811.7 2850.2 2855.2 2837.1 2833.8 2852.6 2884.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.4 0.2 -0.6 -0.1 0.7 1.1Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 5.7 5.1 4.2 3.6 4.1 5.8 9.9 11.5 10.8 9.4 8.1Total Housing Starts 37858 37956 40690 41844 32801 14808 7959 3513 4138 14606 23816 30448 Single-Family 21870 23592 23676 22548 15772 7592 3711 2198 2994 10849 17064 19971 Multifamily 15987 14364 17014 19295 17029 7216 4248 1316 1144 3757 6752 10477
54 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
n A P l E s – m A r C o I s l A n d
P r o F I l E s
TheNaples–MarcoIslandMSAiscomprisedofCollierCountyonly.LocatedonthesouthwestcoastofFlorida,theareaisnotablefornumerousrecreationandleisureactivities.Thisregionissometimesreferredtoasthe“CrownJewelofSouthwestFlorida.”
QUICkFACTS:• Populationestimateof315,258asofJuly1,
2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• Acivilianlaborforceof149,548inApril
2009(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
• Anunemploymentrateof9.2%asofApril2009,notseasonallyadjusted.Thisamountsto13,772unemployedpeople.(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
TOPAREAEMPLOyERS:• CollierCountyPublicSchools–5,365
employees• CollierCountyGovernment–3,788
employees• NCHHealthcareSystem–2,269employees• RegistryResort/NaplesGrand–880
employees• RitzCarltonHotel–870employees• CityofNaples–493employees• NaplesBeachandTennisClub–482
employees• AllenSystemsGroup–221employees• CollierCountyHealthDepartment–219
employees• WilsonMiller,Inc.–140employees
Source: Naples Homes Real Estate and Relocation Services
o U T l o o k s U m m A r I E s
TheNaples–MarcoIslandMSAisexpectedtoshowmoderatetostronggrowthintheeconomicindicators.ThemetroareaisrankednumberoneinthestateofFloridaforpersonalincomegrowth,witha6.4percentgrowthrate,andalsoforpercapitaincomelevel,whichisexpectedtobe57.4.Averageannualwagewillbethesecondhighestinthestateatalevelof51.1.Theaverageannualwageisexpectedtogrowatarateof2.9percent,oneofthehighestinthestate.Populationgrowthwillaverageat1.1percent,andtheGrossMetroProductlevelwillbeat11,547.75(Mill).
Employmentgrowthisexpectedtoaverage1.2per-centeachyear.Themetrowillseeanunemploymentrateof10.9percent.
TheInformationsectorrepresentsNaples’fastestgrowingsector,growingatarateof3.0percenteachyear.TheManufacturingandEducationandHealthServicessectorsfollowwithgrowthratesof2.1percentand2.0percentrespectively.Nosectorsareexpectedtoexperiencedeclininggrowthrates.TheFederalGovernmentandProfessional&BusinessServicessectorswillseetheleastgrowth,withannualgrowthratesof0.4percentand0.2percentrespectively.
m E T r o n E w s s U m m A r I E s
Hodges University expanding Naples campus for enrollment growth
• HodgesUniversityannouncedthatitisexpandingitsNaplescampustoaccommodatestrongenrollmentgrowth.Theprivate,nonprofituniversityacquiredatwo-storybuildingadjacenttothecampus.
• Themulti-milliondollarexpansionwillhouseAlliedHealthandTechnologyprograms,nearlydoublingthespaceprovidedfortheseprograms.Thebuildingalsohasalecturehallthatwillaccommodateupto300peopleandwillbeusedforspecialevents.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 55
n A P l E s – m A r C o I s l A n d
• Hodgesenrollmentforthecurrentsemesterisaround2,750students,upfrom2,228studentslastyear.
Source: Naples News, January 20, 2010
Crist’s education budget up, but Lee schools face reduced spending again
• AfterGovernorCrist’sreleaseofarecordeducationbudget,LeeCountySchoolDistrictisironicallyfacingasecondyearofbudgetreductions.
• Thedistrictmustslashthe$1.42billionbudgetthisyearby$1millionto$28million.Thisprojectionissignificantlysmaller,however,thanlastyear’s$140millionincutsthedistrictmadetothe2009-10budget.
• Crist’seducationbudgetwillbetakenintoconsiderationbytheLegislatureoverthenextfewmonths.In2008thegovernor’sbudgetwasmuchlargerthantheactualbudgetpassedbytheLegislature,sotheschooldistrictisbasingthecurrentpredictionsonthisdifference.
Source: Naples News, February 25, 2010
Judge dismisses property rights claim over Collier growth plan
• CollierCircuitJudgeHughHayesdismissedapropertyrightsclaimfiledbyHHHRanchin2008overCollierCounty’sruralgrowthplan.
• The2002landmarkruralgrowthplanrearrangedwheredevelopmentcouldoccuronGoldenGateEstates.Landownerswholostdevelopmentrightsasaresultofthisplancouldeithersellortransfertheirrightstoareasthatwerelessenvironmentallysensitive.
• HHHRanch’s$92millionclaimaccusedthecountyofillegallytakingawaytheirminerockfromlandnorthofInterstate75andeastofCollierBoulevard.
• JudgeHayescitedaPanamaCityrulinginhisdismissalofthecase.
Source: Naples News, March 3, 2010
Immokalee farmworkers still in desperate need for basic necessities following crop freeze
• FollowingJanuary’scrop-killingfreezethatleftmanywithoutwork,theSalvationArmyofCollierCountyopenedafooddistributioncentertoassistfarmworkersinImmokalee.Theagencyisprovidingfoodtomorethan850farmworkersonaweeklybasis,andwillcontinuetodosountiltheweekofApril6.
• TheGuadalupeCenter’ssoupkitchenisnowserving400to500daily,twiceasmanypeoplethaninpastyears.
• HarryChapinFoodBankhasprovidednearly$300,000worthoffoodsincethefreezeatseveraldistributionsitesinCollier,Hendry,andGladescounties.
Source: Naples News, March 11, 2010
Goodland Boat Park set for summertime launch
• CollierCountyissettocompletetheGoodlandBoatParkfacilitybythissummerdespitesetbacks,includingunforeseensoilconditionsandseawallandwaterissues.Thesesetbackshaveresultedinincreasedprojectcosts,whichhaveclimbedtoatotalof$1,791,780.
• Thefacilitywillincreaseboatlaunchcapacitywithadoubleboatlaunchingramp,witheachlaneexpectedtohandleasmanyas36launcheseachday.
• Theparkwillalsoincludefour300-gallonlivebaittanks,apicnicpavilion,adockmasterstation,parkbenches,andbikeracks,amongotheramenities.
Source: Naples News, March 18, 2010
56 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
n A P l E s – m A r C o I s l A n d
Naples MSAIndustry Location Quotients
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Total Government Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services Financial Activities
Information Transportation, Warehousing, and Util iti
Retail Trade Wholesale Trade
Trade, Transportation, and Util ities Manufacturing
Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Private Service Providing
Service Producing Goods Producing
Total Private Total Nonagricultural Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
Naples Payroll Employment(Thousands)
Naples Payroll Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
13000.0
12000.0
11000.0
10000.0
9000.0
8000.0
7000.0
6000.0
Naples Real Gross Metro Product(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
24.0%
20.0%
16.0%
12.0%
8.0%
4.0%
0.0%
-4.0%
Naples Real Personal Income(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%
Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RateNaples Unemployment Rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 57
n A P l E s – m A r C o I s l A n d
Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL* March 2010 Forecast
2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 20.3 21.1 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 23 23.3 23.6 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 5.5 6.6 8.7 8.7 6 5.8 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 Wages and Salaries 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 6 6 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.5 Nonwage Income 14.8 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.7 18 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1Real Personal Income (00$) 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 18 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 3.3 4.8 7.1 7.4 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.6 5 5 5 4.7Per Capita Income (Ths) 63.7 66.3 67.1 68.2 69 69.8 70.4 71.1 71.9 72.7 73.8 74.7 75.4 76.2 77Real Per Capita Income (00$) 51.9 53.8 54.5 55.1 55.6 56 56.3 56.6 57 57.4 58 58.5 58.9 59.3 59.7Average Annual Wage (Ths) 48.1 48.6 49 49.5 49.8 50.1 50.4 50.6 50.9 51.2 51.5 51.8 52.1 52.5 52.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 4.3 4 4 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 114.2 113.7 113.3 113.3 113.3 113.6 113.9 114.5 115.2 115.8 116.8 118 119.2 120.4 121.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -7 -5.8 -3.7 -1 -0.8 -0.1 0.5 1.1 1.7 2 2.6 3 3.5 4 4.2Manufacturing 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.4 -9.6 -5.7 0.2 0.6 2.2 3.4 4.4 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.4 4 3.9Nonmanufacturing 111.6 111.1 110.8 110.7 110.7 110.9 111.3 111.8 112.5 113.1 114.1 115.2 116.4 117.5 118.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -7 -5.7 -3.6 -1 -0.9 -0.1 0.5 1 1.6 1.9 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.2 Construction & Mining 11 10.6 10.3 10.1 10 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -18.3 -15.3 -12.8 -11.3 -8.5 -5 -1.8 1.7 3.7 4.8 5.9 6.7 7.2 8.3 9.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 20.6 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.8 21 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.7 -11.6 -7.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 Wholesale Trade 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 Retail Trade 16 16 15.9 16 16 16 16 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 Information 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 -0.5 -2.2 1.4 -0.4 1.9 6.1 6.3 5.1 4.7 3.9 3.8 4 3.7 3.7 Financial Activities 7.1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -4.8 -4.4 -2 -1.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.2 1.5 2.4 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.4 3 Prof & Business Services 14.2 14.2 14 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.4 -6.1 -5.4 -1.9 -3.3 -3.1 -2.6 -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 0.3 1.7 3.2 5.3 6.4 Educ & Health Services 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 -0.3 1.3 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 Leisure & Hospitality 21.2 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.8 22 22.3 22.4 22.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.6 -0.9 0.8 1.4 0.5 1.2 1.8 1 0.9 1 1.3 2.3 3.4 3.8 3.8 Other Services 5.9 6 6 6 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.1 1.9 2.2 2 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 Federal Government 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0 -2.1 11.1 8.5 3.7 0.7 -10.7 -5.3 -1.8 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 State & Local Government 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13 13.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.4 -4.4 -3.1 -2.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.4 3.7
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 10851.3 10962.6 10967.4 11003.5 11046 11114 11174.8 11278.5 11393.2 11499.8 11636.8 11778.9 11930.5 12047.4 12182.6Population (Ths) 319.4 318.9 319.1 319.5 320.2 320.9 321.7 322.7 323.9 325 326.2 327.5 329.1 330.6 332.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8Labor Force (Ths) 145.7 146.3 147.3 148.4 149.8 151.1 152.3 153.6 155.2 156.8 157.8 158.8 159.9 161.2 162.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4 -3.1 -1.5 2.1 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.9Unemployment Rate (%) 12.5 12.8 13 13 12.7 12.4 12 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.3 9.8 9.4 9 8.7Total Housing Starts 856 956 1060 1322 1816 2261 2662 3014 3289 3503 3788 4123 4388 4578 4785 Single-Family 748 665 797 1046 1401 1764 2098 2380 2579 2748 2970 3141 3217 3261 3345 Multifamily 108 291 263 276 414 498 563 634 709 755 818 981 1171 1317 1440
*Quarterly at an annual rate
58 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
n A P l E s – m A r C o I s l A n d
Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL March 2010 Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 11.9 12.7 15.3 17 19.3 20.2 20.5 20.1 21.6 22.8 24.2 25.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.9 6.6 20.4 10.8 13.7 4.7 1.5 -2 7.3 5.6 6.2 6.5 Wages and Salaries 4 4.5 5 5.6 6 6.2 6 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.5 Nonwage Income 7.9 8.2 10.3 11.4 13.3 14.1 14.6 14.6 16 17 18.1 19.3Real Personal Income (00$) 11.6 12.1 14.2 15.3 16.9 17.2 16.9 16.5 17.5 18.2 19 20 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.4 17.3 7.6 10.7 2 -1.7 -2.2 5.7 4.1 4.6 4.9Per Capita Income (Ths.) 43.2 44.4 51.6 55.3 61.8 64.2 64.8 63.2 67.7 70.8 74.2 77.6Real Per Capita Income (00$) 41.8 42.2 47.7 49.6 54 54.6 53.4 52 54.7 56.5 58.2 60Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 36.2 39.5 41.3 43.6 44.4 46.4 47.7 47.4 49.2 50.5 51.7 53.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 9.3 4.5 5.6 1.7 4.6 2.8 -0.7 4 2.6 2.3 2.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 110.8 114.2 120.6 128.3 135 132 124.6 116.7 113.4 114.3 117.5 122.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 3 5.7 6.3 5.2 -2.3 -5.6 -6.3 -2.9 0.8 2.8 4.1Manufacturing 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.4 -5.3 5.9 3 3.6 -1.3 -10.8 -8.4 -3.8 3.7 4.8 3.5Nonmanufacturing 107.7 111.2 117.5 125.1 131.7 128.7 121.6 114 110.8 111.6 114.7 119.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 3.3 5.7 6.4 5.3 -2.3 -5.5 -6.3 -2.8 0.7 2.7 4.1 Construction & Mining 14.7 14.6 16.8 20.3 23.9 19.7 14.7 11.7 10.3 10.2 10.8 11.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 -0.8 14.8 21.3 17.6 -17.8 -25.5 -20.4 -12.1 -0.4 6.2 9.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.7 22.4 23 24.3 24.5 24.2 23.5 21.7 20.6 21 21.8 22.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 -1.3 2.4 5.6 0.9 -1.3 -2.8 -7.8 -5 1.8 3.9 3.8 Wholesale Trade 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 Retail Trade 17.6 17.7 18 19.1 19.5 19.2 18.6 17 16 16.1 16.6 17.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Information 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -3.3 7.3 0 3.2 -5 -1.6 -4.5 -0.4 4.8 4.1 3.6 Financial Activities 6.5 6.7 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.2 7.4 7.2 7 7 7.2 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 2.6 5.8 9.3 5.7 0.1 -9.1 -2.7 -3.1 0.2 3.2 2.9 Prof & Business Services 13.4 16.1 17.4 16.3 16.8 15.8 15.3 14.6 14 13.7 13.8 14.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.1 19.8 8.1 -6.5 3.2 -6.2 -3.2 -4.6 -4.2 -2 1 5.9 Educ & Health Services 12.8 13.2 13.4 14.5 15.4 16.2 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.6 18 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 3.3 1.9 7.9 6 5.5 1.7 0.7 1.3 2 2.4 2.4 Leisure & Hospitality 18.3 18.5 20 21.5 21.9 23 22.5 21.1 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 1.2 8.2 7.4 1.8 4.9 -2.3 -5.9 0.5 1.2 2 3.6 Other Services 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 5.9 6 6.1 6.2 6.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 7 -0.3 -1.4 5.2 1.9 3.2 2.7 -3.5 1.8 2.3 1.7 1.9 Federal Government 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3.8 1.4 5.3 -4.5 -0.1 0.7 State & Local Government 11.3 11.8 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.3 13.3 12.9 12.6 12.5 12.8 13.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.1 4.5 0.9 2.9 3.4 4.6 0.2 -3.1 -2.7 -0.1 1.7 3.8
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 9429.8 10210 11154 12373 12584 12318 11505 10871 10995 11240 11712 12245Population (Ths) 276.6 286.5 297.1 307.3 312.8 315.2 317 318.5 319.4 322.3 327 333 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 3.6 3.7 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.9Labor Force (Ths) 129.6 133.1 138 145.2 152.7 153.2 151.8 147.9 147.9 153 158.3 163.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 2.7 3.6 5.3 5.2 0.3 -0.9 -2.5 0 3.4 3.5 3Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 4.9 4.2 3.4 3.1 4.2 6.7 11.1 12.9 11.8 10.1 8.6Total Housing Starts 7078 5334 6101 5724 4256 1961 986 833 1289 2806 3950 4820 Single-Family 4279 3403 4018 4038 3050 1161 688 655 977 2205 3019 3383 Multifamily 2799 1932 2083 1686 1206 800 298 178 311 601 931 1437
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 59
o C A l A
P r o F I l E s
ComprisedofMarionCountyonly,theOcalaMSAislocatednorthwestoftheOrlandoareainthecenterofthestate.Thesecond-largestnationalforestinFlorida,theOcalaNationalForest,andSilverSpringsaretwomainoutdoorattractionsinthearea.
QUICkFACTS:• Populationestimateof329,628asofJuly1,
2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• Acivilianlaborforceof140,030inApril
2009(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
• Anunemploymentrateof11.7%asofApril2009,notseasonallyadjusted.Thisamountsto16,410unemployedpeople.(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
TOPAREAEMPLOyERS:• MarionCountyPublicSchools–6,084
employees• MunroeRegionalMedicalCenter–2,500
employees• StateofFlorida(alldepartments)–2,500
employees• Wal-MartStores,Inc.–2,370employees• MarionCountyBoardofCounty
Commissioners–1,400employees• PublixSuperMarkets,Inc.–1,404
employees• OcalaRegionalMedicalCenter–1,301
employees• Taylor,Bean&WhitakerMortgage
Corporation–1,238employees• AT&T–1,000employees• CityofOcala–979employees
Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council
o U T l o o k s U m m A r I E s
TheOcalaMSAisexpectedtoshowvaryingstrengthsandweaknessesintheeconomicindicators.Personalincomegrowthisexpectedtoaverage5.8percentannually,amongthehighestinthestate.Percapitaincomelevelisthelowestinthestateatalevelof26.2.Relativetoothermetroareas,Ocalawillhavethesecondlowestaverageannualwagelevel,at38.0.Averageannualwagegrowthisexpectedtobe2.8percent.Themetrohasthehighestexpectedannualpopulationgrowthinthestate,at1.8percent.TheGrossMetroProductisexpectedtobe6,347.28(Mill),thelowestinthestate.
Employmentgrowthisexpectedtoaveragearateof1.2percentannually.Unemploymentforthemetrowillbe12.5percent,thehighestintheState.
TheEducationandHealthServicessectorisexpectedtobethefastestgrowingsectorinOcala,averaginganannualgrowthrateof1.9percent.TheManufacturingsectorandtheTrade,Transportation,andUtilitysectorfollowwithgrowthratesof1.8percentand1.7percentrespectively.TheFinancialsectoristheonlysectorthatwillexperiencenegativegrowth,withagrowthrateof-1.7percent.
m E T r o n E w s s U m m A r I E s
Horse stall waste may provide green energy
• AnewfermentationfacilitythatproducespoweroutofstallwastehasbeenpresentedinMarionCounty.Thiswasthefirstcompletedproject,andhasreceived$500,000outof$25millionsetasidefortheFarmandFuelgrants.
• JoseSifontes,formerUniversityofFloridaengineer,estimatedthatthecostofthefourtanksusedinhisfermentationmachinewasabout$300,000,buttheywouldpayforthemselvesinthreeyears.Heisplanningtomarkettheprocesstolocalcommunitiesandfarms.
60 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
o C A l A
• Whilenotalloftheprojectsthatreceivegrantmoneywillprovetobeeconomicallyviable,themaingoalofthegrantsistostrengthentheroleofFloridafarmsintheproductionofbothfuelandfood.
Source: The Ocala Star Banner, February 24, 2010
Munroe financial outlook brighter
• ThefinancialfutureofMunroeRegionalMedicalCenterislessgrimthanpreviouslyanticipated.CFORichMutarellihasannouncedthatthehospitalisexpectedtomakea$3.2millionprofitthisfiscalyear,comparedtothe$11.2millionlossin2008.
• Whileprojectionsarebetter,showinganimproved$17.1millionshortfallinfiscalyear2012,comparedtothepreviouslyforecasted$30millionshortfall,noexpense-cuttingmeasurescanpreventtheupcominglosses.
• Hospitaltrusteeswilldiscussstrategicmanagementoptionssuchasmergers,jointventures,andeventheoptionofleasingthehospitaltoanothercompany.
Source: The Ocala Start Banner, February 24, 2010
Pine Oaks will stay open until end of June
• ResidentsofOcalaarepleadingwithCityCounciltokeeplocalPineOaksGolfClubopen.Citycouncilhasvoted4-1tospend$87,000intaxdollarstokeepthegolfcourseopenuntiltheendofJune.
• PineOaksisprojectedtolose$500,000in2010.Theinterestedpartiesarelookingatasolutionwhereanon-profitcivicbodywouldtakeoverPineOaks.
• PineOaksholdshistoricalsignificancetotheresidentsofnorthwestOcala.Somequestionedwhymunicipalgolfcourses,whichalsolosemoney,werestillsubsidized,whilePineOakswassingledoutforclosure.
Source: The Ocala Star Banner, March 4, 2010
Marion to receive $250k to prevent homelessness
• Marioncountycharitieshavefallenonhardtimes,resultingfromhigherdemandforutilitiesandmortgageassistance,coupledwithfewerdonationsacrosstheboard.However,thecountywillreceive$250,000infederalassistancetodistributeamonglocalcharities.
• Theincreaseddemandisduetounusuallycoldweather,withtemperaturesintheteensdrivingelectricitycostsup,andaskyrocketing15.4%unemploymentrateinthecounty.
• Theprivatebenefactorshavebecomemoreconservativeintheirdonationsandhavebeenrenewingsmalleramounts.Federalgovernmentassistanceisalsodryingup,withstimulusmoneyhavingbeenalmostcompletelyspent.
Source: The Ocala Start Banner, March 16, 2010
Libraries fear funding cuts
• SeverebudgetcutsarethreateningMarionCounty’slibraryfunding.TheFloridaLegislatureintendstocut$21.2millionoutofstatelibraryfunding—theentireStateAidtoLibrariesprogram.
• Thecutisexpectedtoresultin$8millionoffederalmoneylostaswell,sincethestateisrequiredtopartiallyfinancethelibrariesinordertoreceivemoneyfromthefederallibraryfund.
• Thelossoffundingisexpectedtoshutdowntherurallibraries,obliterateregionallibrarypartnershipsandcooperativeservices,anddeprivelibrariesofthefundsnecessarytopurchasenewbooksandmedia.
Source: The Ocala Star Banner, March 18, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 61
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Ocala MSAIndustry Location Quotients
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Total Government
Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services Financial Activities
Information
Transportation, Warehousing, and Util iti Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade Trade, Transportation, and Util ities
Manufacturing
Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Private Service Providing
Service Producing Goods Producing
Total Private
Total Nonagricultural Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
110.0
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
Ocala Payroll Employment(Thousands)
Ocala Payroll Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
7000.0
6500.0
6000.0
5500.0
5000.0
4500.0
4000.0
Ocala Real Gross Metro Product(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%
-2.0%-4.0%
Ocala Real Personal Income(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
13121110090807060504030201009998
16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%
Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RateOcala Unemployment Rate
62 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
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Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL* March 2010 Forecast
2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 10.1 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 11 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 12 12.1 12.3 12.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 5 5.6 7.1 7.2 5.3 5.1 4.8 5 5.3 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.1 5.9 Wages and Salaries 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4 4.1 Nonwage Income 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 8 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4Real Personal Income (00$) 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 9 9 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 2.9 3.8 5.5 6 4.2 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3Per Capita Income (Ths) 29.9 30.9 31.3 31.7 31.9 32.2 32.4 32.7 33 33.3 33.6 33.9 34.1 34.4 34.7Real Per Capita Income (00$) 24.4 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 26 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9Average Annual Wage (Ths) 35.8 36.2 36.5 36.8 37 37.2 37.4 37.6 37.8 38 38.2 38.4 38.7 39 39.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.4 3 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 96.8 96.3 96.1 95.9 95.9 96.1 96.5 97.1 97.8 98.4 99.2 100.1 101 101.9 102.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1 -3.7 -3 -1.9 -0.9 -0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.7Manufacturing 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 7 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.3 -9.4 -4.4 -1.8 0 1.6 3 4.4 5 5.3 4.8 4.5 4 3.6 3.4Nonmanufacturing 90.2 89.7 89.4 89.3 89.3 89.4 89.7 90.2 90.8 91.3 92 92.9 93.7 94.5 95.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3 -3.2 -2.9 -1.9 -1 -0.3 0.3 1 1.7 2.1 2.6 3 3.3 3.6 3.7 Construction & Mining 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.9 8 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.8 9 9.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.9 -8.9 -9.8 -12 -8 -4.7 -1.5 2.1 4 5.4 6.6 7.3 7.6 8.5 9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 21 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -5 -3.8 -2.7 -1.4 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.7 3.5 4.1 4 3.8 3.6 3.4 Wholesale Trade 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 Retail Trade 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.9 15 15.1 15.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3 Information 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.6 -3.3 -5.5 -1 -1.3 0.6 5 4.8 3.6 3.4 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.6 Financial Activities 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 5 5 5 5.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -16.8 -17.9 -17.8 -8 -1.8 -0.9 -0.7 0 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.4 Prof & Business Services 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2 -0.6 -1.5 -0.4 -2.7 -2.1 -1.8 -0.9 -0.2 -0.8 0.5 1.6 3 5 6.2 Educ & Health Services 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.9 14.9 15 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 0.4 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 Leisure & Hospitality 9.9 9.9 9.9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -3 -2.9 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 1 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 1 2 3.1 3.4 3.4 Other Services 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 1.2 1.4 2.3 1.5 1.8 2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 Federal Government 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0 -0.1 13.1 6.1 1.9 0.6 -10.8 -5.5 -2 -1.3 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 State & Local Government 17.1 17 17 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.9 16.9 17 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 0 -0.4 -1 -1.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 0 0.3 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.1
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 5966.5 6025.8 6032.1 6051.4 6073.4 6107.7 6143.1 6200 6267.4 6330.7 6405.9 6482.6 6561.2 6620.2 6687.5Population (Ths) 339.1 338 338.3 339 340.5 341.8 343 344.4 346.3 348.4 350.6 352.9 355.2 357.4 359.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 2 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6Labor Force (Ths) 139.2 139.3 139.7 140.2 140.8 141.3 141.7 142.3 142.9 143.7 144.2 144.7 145.4 146.1 146.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 -1.2 -0.7 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.9Unemployment Rate (%) 14.2 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.5 14.2 13.8 13.4 13 12.5 12 11.4 11 10.6 10.2Total Housing Starts 401 389 541 844 1327 1836 2377 2936 3457 3637 3870 4064 4156 4194 4253 Single-Family 394 368 520 820 1283 1778 2308 2854 3360 3539 3774 3951 4022 4047 4094 Multifamily 6 22 21 24 44 58 70 82 97 97 96 113 134 147 159
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 63
o C A l A
Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL March 2010 Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 6.5 7 7.7 8.6 9.6 10 10.2 10 10.7 11.2 11.9 12.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 7.6 10.6 11.6 12.1 4 1.6 -1.4 6.2 5.1 5.9 6 Wages and Salaries 2.5 2.7 3 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.1 Nonwage Income 4 4.2 4.7 5.3 6 6.3 6.5 6.6 7.1 7.5 8 8.5Real Personal Income (00$) 6.3 6.6 7.1 7.7 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 5.4 7.8 8.4 9.1 1.3 -1.7 -1.6 4.6 3.6 4.2 4.4Per Capita Income (Ths.) 23.7 24.8 26.4 28.2 30.5 30.7 30.7 29.8 31.5 32.6 33.7 34.8Real Per Capita Income (00$) 23 23.5 24.4 25.4 26.6 26.2 25.3 24.5 25.5 26 26.5 26.9Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 28.2 30.1 30.9 32.1 34.5 34.8 35.2 35.2 36.6 37.5 38.3 39.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 6.6 2.6 3.9 7.4 0.9 1.3 0.1 3.9 2.4 2.2 2.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 87 89.9 95.9 101.5 106.1 106.8 103 98.4 96.1 96.9 99.7 103.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 3.4 6.6 5.9 4.5 0.6 -3.5 -4.4 -2.4 0.8 2.9 3.6Manufacturing 9.3 9.2 9.6 9.9 9.9 9.6 8.3 6.9 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.5 -1 4 3.6 -0.7 -3 -13.2 -16.8 -4.1 3.5 4.6 3Nonmanufacturing 77.7 80.7 86.3 91.6 96.3 97.2 94.7 91.5 89.4 90 92.5 95.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 3.9 6.9 6.1 5.1 1 -2.6 -3.3 -2.3 0.6 2.7 3.6 Construction & Mining 7.3 8.5 9.9 10.7 12.6 11.6 9.7 8.9 8 8 8.6 9.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 15.3 16.7 8.8 17 -7.6 -16.1 -8.7 -9.7 -0.1 6.7 9.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 20.5 20.9 21.7 22.9 23.4 23.8 22.7 21.3 20.9 21.2 22 22.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 2 3.6 5.6 1.9 1.8 -4.3 -6.3 -2 1.5 3.9 3.3 Wholesale Trade 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.1 4 4.1 4.2 4.4 Retail Trade 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.3 16.4 16.4 15.7 14.5 14.3 14.4 14.8 15.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.9 3 Information 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -5.2 1.2 -2.3 -1.9 -7.2 -3.9 -6.6 -2.8 3.5 3 2.6 Financial Activities 4 4.3 4.9 5.4 5.8 6 5.9 5.5 4.8 4.8 5 5.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 9.2 12.5 11.1 6 3.6 -0.2 -7.9 -11.9 -0.1 2.8 2.3 Prof & Business Services 7.2 7.6 8.2 8.9 9.3 8.5 8.2 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.6 8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 4.8 7.5 9.5 4.1 -8.2 -4.4 -6 -1.3 -1.2 1 5.6 Educ & Health Services 9.7 10.5 11.1 12 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 8.5 6 7.6 5.8 4.8 4.7 2.5 1.1 1.8 2.6 2.1 Leisure & Hospitality 7.6 7.7 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.9 10 10.2 10.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.9 13.1 6.3 4.8 9.5 -2.1 -3 -1.4 0.9 1.7 3.2 Other Services 3.6 3.6 3.8 4 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 -1.6 7.7 5.2 1.9 4.7 -0.1 0.3 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.3 Federal Government 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 -2.3 0 0 0 0 1.1 -1.1 5.2 -4.6 -0.5 0.2 State & Local Government 14.7 14.7 15.1 15.4 16 16.5 16.9 17 16.9 16.8 17.1 17.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.4 2.4 2.3 3.6 2.9 2.6 1.1 -0.7 -0.5 1.4 3.1
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 4765.6 5167.2 5513 6071.6 6580.6 6503.1 6351.4 6094 6045.7 6179.6 6445.1 6718.7Population (Ths) 272.7 281.3 292.2 304.3 316.2 325.9 331.9 337.1 338.9 343.9 351.8 361.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 3.1 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.1 1.8 1.5 0.6 1.5 2.3 2.7Labor Force (Ths) 111.7 114.3 118.9 125.8 132.2 136.3 139.1 139.8 140 142 144.5 147.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.3 4 5.8 5.1 3.1 2.1 0.5 0.1 1.5 1.8 2Unemployment Rate (%) 5.9 5.4 4.6 3.8 3.4 4.5 7.7 12.8 14.7 13.6 11.7 10.1Total Housing Starts 5741 6723 5087 7169 7218 3117 1275 403 775 2652 3932 4282 Single-Family 5258 5985 4998 6614 6862 2803 1256 387 748 2575 3822 4123 Multifamily 484 738 88 555 357 314 19 16 28 77 110 159
64 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
o r l A n d o – k I s s I m m E E
P r o F I l E s
TheOrlando–kissimmeeMSAiscomprisedofLake,Orange,Osceola,andSeminolecounties.Locatedinthesoutherncenterofthestate,thisareaishometonumeroustouristattractionssuchasWaltDisneyWorldandnumerousotherDisneyenterprises,UniversalStudios,andSeaWorld.ItisalsohometotheOrlandoMagic,theOrlandoPredatorsarenafootballteam,andAtlantaBravesspringtrainingatDisney’sWideWorldofSports.TheUniversityofCentralFlorida,thenation’sseventh-largestuniversity,andmanyotherplacesofhighereducationalsoresideintheMSA.
QUICkFACTS:• Metropopulationestimateof2,054,574asof
July1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• LakeCountypopulationestimateof307,243
asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• OrangeCountypopulationestimateof
1,072,801asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• OsceolaCountypopulationestimateof263,676asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• SeminoleCountypopulationestimateof410,854asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• AcivilianlaborforcefortheMSAof1,110,673inApril2009(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
• Anunemploymentrateof9.7%asofApril2009,notseasonallyadjusted.Thisamountsto107,808unemployedpeopleintheOrlandoMSA.(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
TOPAREAEMPLOyERS:• WaltDisneyCo.–62,200employees• OrangeCountyPublicSchools–23,228
employees
• FloridaHospital(AdventistHealthSystem)–16,002employees
• PublixSuperMarketsInc.–15,606employees
• UniversalOrlando–13,000employees• OrlandoRegionalHealthcareSystem–
10,000employees• SeminoleCountyPublicSchools–9,984
employees• UniversityofCentralFlorida–9,537
employees• OrangeCountyGovernment–7,426
employees• LockheedMartinCorporation–7,200
employeesSource: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission and Orlando Business Journal
o U T l o o k s U m m A r I E s
TheOrlando–kissimmeeareaisexpectedtoshowmoderategrowthintheeconomicindicators.Personalincomegrowthisexpectedtobethesecondhighestinthestate,growingatarateof5.9percent.Thepercapitaincomelevelisexpectedtobe29.9.Averageannualwagegrowthwillbe2.7percent,andaverageannualwagewillbeatalevelof44.8.TheOrlandoMSAwillseepopulationgrowthof1.2percent,oneofthehighestinthestate.GrossMetroProductisexpectedtobeoneofthehighestinthestate,averaging89,137.13(Mill).
Employmentgrowthisforecastedtoaverage2.6percentannually,thehighestinthestate.Themetrowillseeanaverageunemploymentrateof10.3percent.
IntheOrlandoarea,thefastestgrowingsectorisexpectedtobeProfessional&BusinessServiceswithanaverageannualgrowthrateof7.1percent.ThiswillbefollowedbyManufacturingandEducationandHealthServices,withaverageannualgrowthratesof2.7and2.5percent,respectively.TheonlysectorthatwillexperiencenegativegrowthistheFederalGovernmentsector,withanaverageannualrateofgrowthof-0.1percent.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 65
o r l A n d o – k I s s I m m E E
m E T r o n E w s s U m m A r I E s
Orlando hotel occupancy hits 80.4%
• AccordingtoSmithTravelResearch,Orlandohoteloccupancyhit80.4%Newyear’sweek,afigurethatisconsideredrelativelyhigh.
• Thenumberswere2%higherthanNewyear’sweekthepreviousyear,showingevidenceofthecity’sslowclimboutofaverysevererecession.
• Revenueperavailableroom,acrucialfigureingaugingthehotelindustry’shealth,continueditsdownwardslide,down4.6%fromlastyear.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, January 15, 2010
Orlando one of top destinations
• Hotelscombined.comrankedOrlandonumber4outofthetop10destinationsfordomestictravelersin2010.
• ThecitywasedgedoutbyNewyorkCity,LasVegas,andMiamiBeach.
• Thestudyalsocomparedaverageroomrates,andofthetopdestinations,Orlandowastheleastexpensive,at$90anight.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 11, 2010
Who are region’s biggest losers in housing freefall?
• Investor-fundeddevelopmentsinCentralFloridatookthebiggesthitfromthehousingmarketcrash,inaregionwherehousingpricesfell50%injusttwoyears.
• Developmentssawaveragesalespricesof$312,000cascadeto$62,000;adeclineof80%inthecourseofayear.
• Countyappraisersclaimthatheavyinvestorinvolvementdrovesuchpropertiespricesartificiallyhigh.Whenthehousingbubbleburst,theinflatedpropertieshadfarthertofallthenmanyresidences.
Source: Orlando Sentinel, February 23, 2010
Orlando gas prices on the rise
• Orlandogaspricesroseeightcentsinthecourseofaweekasaresultofasignificantriseinthepriceofcrudeoil.
• AAAAutoClubSoutharguesthattheriseincrudeoilpricescanbetracedtoahigherthanaveragenationalgrowthrate;afactorthathasledconsumerstoperceiveanupwardslopingeconomy.
• AAAspokeswomanJessicaBradyforecastedthefutureofgasprices,statingthat“priceswilllikelycontinuetheirupwardtrend,butthestateofChile’soilrefineries,whichhaveshutdownbecauseofpoweroutages,couldleadtohigherthanexpectedprices.”
Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 1, 2010
UCF rally: Students to protest budget cuts
• StudentsattheUniversityofCentralFloridaplantorallyinprotestofstatebudgetcutstopubliceducation,anefforttheyhopewillcatchtheattentionoflegislators.
• TakingplaceonMarch4,theeffortispartofalargerCalifornia-basedmovemententitled“NationalDayofActiontoDefendEducation.”
• SophomoreFedorahPhilippeauxhadanoptimisticattitudeabouttherally.“We’rethinkingthisisgoingtobebig,it’sachanceforstudents’voicestobeheard,”shecommented.
Source: Orlando Sentinel, March 2, 2010
66 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
o r l A n d o – k I s s I m m E E
Orlando - Kissimee MSAIndustry Location Quotients
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
Total Government Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services Financial Activities
Information Transportation, Warehousing, and Util iti
Retail Trade Wholesale Trade
Trade, Transportation, and Util ities Nondurable Goods
Durable Goods Manufacturing Construction
Natural Resources and Mining Private Service Providing
Service Producing Goods Producing
Total Private Total Nonagricultural Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
1200.0
1100.0
1000.0
900.0
800.0
Orlando Payroll Employment(Thousands)
OrlandoPayroll Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
100000.0
90000.0
80000.0
70000.0
60000.0
50000.0
Orlando Real Gross Metro Product(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
15.0%
12.0%
9.0%
6.0%
3.0%
0.0%
-3.0%
-6.0%
Orlando Real Personal Income(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%
Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RateOrlando Unemployment Rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 67
o r l A n d o – k I s s I m m E E
Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL* March 2010 Forecast
2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 71 72.7 73.5 74.6 75.4 76.4 77.2 78.2 79.3 80.7 82 83.4 84.8 86.3 87.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 3.7 4.8 6.1 6.2 5.1 5 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.7 6.8 7 7.2 Wages and Salaries 43.3 43.6 44 44.5 44.9 45.5 46 46.5 47.2 48 48.8 49.7 50.6 51.6 52.5 Nonwage Income 27.8 29.1 29.5 30.1 30.5 30.9 31.2 31.6 32.1 32.6 33.2 33.7 34.2 34.7 35.3Real Personal Income (00$) 57.9 58.9 59.6 60.2 60.7 61.3 61.7 62.2 62.9 63.7 64.5 65.3 66.2 67.1 68.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 1.6 3 4.6 5 3.9 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.5Per Capita Income (Ths) 33.8 34.7 35.2 35.7 36 36.4 36.7 37 37.4 37.9 38.3 38.8 39.2 39.7 40.2Real Per Capita Income (00$) 27.5 28.2 28.6 28.8 29 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.9 31.2Average Annual Wage (Ths) 42.3 42.7 43 43.5 43.7 44 44.2 44.4 44.6 44.8 45.1 45.3 45.6 45.9 46.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.4 3 2.6 2.1 1.9 2 2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 1018.5 1016.2 1017.7 1019.8 1023.4 1029.5 1036.2 1045 1055.9 1067.3 1079.3 1092.2 1105.8 1119.1 1131.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -4 -2.5 -0.9 0 0.5 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.9Manufacturing 39.3 39.1 39.1 39.2 39.5 39.9 40.5 41.1 41.7 42.3 42.7 43.2 43.7 44.1 44.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.1 -5.8 -3 -1.3 0.6 2.2 3.6 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.1Nonmanufacturing 979.3 977.1 978.6 980.7 983.9 989.6 995.7 1003.9 1014.2 1025 1036.6 1049 1062.2 1075 1087.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 -2.3 -0.9 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 2.4 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.9 Construction & Mining 56.1 54.6 53.4 52.2 52.2 52.6 53.1 53.9 54.8 55.8 57 58.2 59.5 61 62.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -17.3 -16.3 -12.7 -11.2 -6.9 -3.6 -0.5 3.1 4.9 6.2 7.4 8.1 8.6 9.3 9.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 188.6 188 187.7 187.7 188 188.3 189.4 191.3 193.4 195.5 197.6 199.3 201.2 202.9 204.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.9 -3.5 -2.6 -1.2 -0.3 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.9 3.8 4.3 4.2 4 3.8 3.6 Wholesale Trade 45.1 45 45.2 45 45.1 45.4 45.9 46.8 47.3 47.9 48.5 49 49.6 50.2 50.7 Retail Trade 111.4 111.4 111.1 111.5 111.5 111 110.9 111.4 112.6 113.4 114.4 115.1 116 116.7 117.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 32.1 31 30.7 30.5 30.7 31.1 31.5 32 32.4 32.9 33.4 33.8 34.2 34.5 34.9 Information 24.7 24.5 23.8 23.9 24.2 24.5 24.9 25 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.8 26 26.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.6 -3.8 -5.1 -4.2 -1.9 0.3 4.6 4.7 3.7 3.3 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.5 Financial Activities 65.2 64.8 64.7 64.6 64.2 64.2 64.3 64.7 65.3 65.8 66.3 66.9 67.4 67.7 68 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 -2.4 -1 0.2 -1.4 -0.9 -0.7 0.2 1.6 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.5 Prof & Business Services 160.3 161.6 163.8 165.9 169.3 173.5 176.1 179.5 184.6 188.6 192.5 196.9 201.8 207 211.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.3 -3.7 0.4 3 5.6 7.4 7.5 8.2 9 8.7 9.3 9.7 9.4 9.8 10.1 Educ & Health Services 119.1 118.8 119.1 119.4 119.6 119.6 120.5 121.9 123.1 124.5 125.7 127.2 128.4 129.2 130.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.9 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.8 3.5 Leisure & Hospitality 195.9 195.5 195.6 197.1 197.1 197.4 198 197.9 197.8 198.7 200.3 202.2 204.3 206.2 207.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.3 3.8 3.8 Other Services 51.1 51.3 51.3 51.7 51.9 52.2 52.4 52.6 52.8 53 53.1 53.4 53.7 53.9 54.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 0.7 1.4 2.2 1.5 1.8 2 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 Federal Government 11.6 11.8 13.3 12.4 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 -0.2 14.2 7.4 2.3 -0.5 -12.4 -6.5 -2.1 -1.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 State & Local Government 106.8 106.4 106 105.8 105.6 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.8 106.2 107 107.8 108.6 109.5 110.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 -0.8 0 -0.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.5 1.4 2 2.7 3.2 3.3
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 82495.5 82984.8 83315.4 83815.9 84407.1 85136.7 85790.4 86769.8 87934.4 89115.9 90338 91580.5 92880.3 93920.6 94998Population (Ths) 2101 2091.1 2088.8 2090.1 2094.7 2099.7 2104.5 2111 2119.8 2129.3 2139.5 2150.1 2161.2 2172.9 2185 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.4 0 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2 2 2.1Labor Force (Ths) 1113.1 1107.1 1106.1 1106.8 1109.4 1112.5 1115.1 1118.8 1123.8 1129.5 1135.1 1141.1 1147.4 1154.2 1161.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 -1.1 -1 -0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2 2.1 2.2 2.3Unemployment Rate (%) 12 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.2 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.7 10.2 9.8 9.3 8.9 8.5 8.2Total Housing Starts 4500 4123 4829 6467 9189 11798 14359 16754 18752 20065 21578 22964 23871 24463 25087 Single-Family 4367 3783 4587 6187 8403 10609 12753 14650 16033 17196 18502 19391 19738 19942 20268 Multifamily 133 340 241 280 786 1189 1605 2104 2720 2869 3076 3573 4133 4521 4819
*Quarterly at an annual rate
68 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
o r l A n d o – k I s s I m m E E
Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL March 2010 Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 49.4 52.6 57.6 63.4 69.1 71.5 72.3 70.4 74 77.8 82.7 88.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 6.5 9.4 10 9.1 3.5 1 -2.6 5.2 5 6.3 7.2 Wages and Salaries 31 33.2 36.4 40.1 43.2 44.9 44.8 43 44.2 46.3 49.3 53 Nonwage Income 18.4 19.5 21.2 23.3 25.9 26.6 27.5 27.4 29.8 31.5 33.4 35.6Real Personal Income (00$) 47.9 49.9 53.2 56.9 60.4 60.9 59.5 57.8 59.9 62 64.9 68.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 4.3 6.6 6.9 6.2 0.8 -2.2 -2.8 3.6 3.5 4.7 5.6Per Capita Income (Ths.) 28 29 30.6 32.5 34.5 35.1 34.9 33.6 35.4 36.9 38.6 40.4Real Per Capita Income (00$) 27.1 27.5 28.3 29.2 30.1 29.8 28.8 27.6 28.6 29.4 30.3 31.3Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 34 35.6 37.1 38.7 40.2 40.9 41.4 41.7 43.2 44.3 45.2 46.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.3 3.8 1.8 1.3 0.7 3.7 2.4 2.1 2.7
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 908.4 928.1 976.5 1032.4 1071.3 1094.8 1078.4 1026.9 1019.3 1041.7 1086.2 1137.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 2.2 5.2 5.7 3.8 2.2 -1.5 -4.8 -0.7 2.2 4.3 4.7Manufacturing 45.4 43.2 44.1 45.3 44.5 44.1 42.7 40.2 39.2 40.8 43 44.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.6 -4.9 2.2 2.7 -1.9 -0.8 -3.1 -6 -2.4 4.1 5.3 3.7Nonmanufacturing 863 884.9 932.4 987.1 1026.8 1050.7 1035.7 986.7 980.1 1000.9 1043.2 1093.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 2.5 5.4 5.9 4 2.3 -1.4 -4.7 -0.7 2.1 4.2 4.8 Construction & Mining 61.4 66 74.2 84.4 91.2 85.4 73 60.3 53.1 53.6 57.7 63.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 7.4 12.5 13.7 8 -6.4 -14.5 -17.4 -12 0.9 7.6 9.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 171.6 173.4 181.7 192.8 198.8 204 201.1 191.5 187.8 190.6 198.4 205.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 1 4.8 6.1 3.1 2.6 -1.4 -4.8 -1.9 1.5 4.1 3.5 Wholesale Trade 39.6 40 42 44.7 46.2 47.3 46.7 45.6 45.1 46.3 48.7 50.9 Retail Trade 104.8 107.4 113.5 120.1 122.4 123.7 121.3 113.6 111.4 111.5 114.7 118 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 27.3 25.9 26.2 28 30.3 33 33.1 32.2 30.7 31.8 33.6 35.1 Information 22.5 23.1 23.8 24.7 25.8 26.8 26.2 25 24.1 24.9 25.6 26.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 2.5 3.1 3.9 4.5 3.7 -2.1 -4.6 -3.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 Financial Activities 54.7 57.4 59.5 63.7 67 67.8 67 65.4 64.6 64.6 66.6 68.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 4.8 3.7 7.1 5.2 1.1 -1.1 -2.5 -1.2 0 3.1 2.4 Prof & Business Services 152.3 152.2 162.4 175.4 182.1 187 179.9 163.1 165.1 178.4 195 214 Pct Chg Year Ago -3 -0.1 6.7 8 3.9 2.6 -3.8 -9.4 1.3 8 9.3 9.8 Educ & Health Services 89.4 93.6 97.3 102.2 107.5 112.7 117.3 118.7 119.2 121.3 126.4 130.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 4.7 4 5 5.2 4.8 4.1 1.2 0.5 1.7 4.3 3.4 Leisure & Hospitality 165 169.9 179.4 183.6 186.9 193.6 200.2 193.8 196.3 197.8 201.4 208.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.4 3 5.6 2.4 1.8 3.6 3.4 -3.2 1.3 0.7 1.8 3.6 Other Services 45.4 45.7 47.5 49.9 53.4 55.8 53 50.8 51.5 52.5 53.3 54.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.8 0.7 4 4.9 7.1 4.5 -5 -4.2 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.9 Federal Government 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.8 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.6 12.3 11.6 11.5 11.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1 7 1.2 5.2 -3.5 0.4 2.1 -0.6 5.9 -5.6 -0.7 0 State & Local Government 90.2 92.6 95.4 98.7 102.7 106.2 106.2 106.6 106 105.6 107.4 110.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 2.6 3 3.5 4.1 3.4 0 0.3 -0.6 -0.3 1.6 3.3
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 66572 70644 75050 81630 85715 87009 87021 83763 83631 86408 90979 95531Population (Ths) 1764.2 1815 1880 1950.4 2004.7 2040.4 2068.1 2092.3 2091.2 2108.8 2145 2191.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.9 3.6 3.7 2.8 1.8 1.4 1.2 -0.1 0.8 1.7 2.2Labor Force (Ths) 918 934 963.3 1007.7 1048.9 1091.6 1119.9 1114.3 1107.3 1117.5 1138.3 1165 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.6 4.1 4.1 2.6 -0.5 -0.6 0.9 1.9 2.4Unemployment Rate (%) 5.6 5.1 4.4 3.5 3.1 3.8 5.9 10.8 12.3 11.3 9.5 8.1Total Housing Starts 25182 27607 32400 33906 30304 18000 10572 4724 6152 15416 22119 25240 Single-Family 17509 22318 26196 26872 24310 12536 5736 3823 5740 13511 18707 20444 Multifamily 7673 5289 6204 7034 5994 5464 4837 901 412 1904 3413 4796
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 69
P A l m B Ay – m E l B o U r n E – T I T U s v I l l E
P r o F I l E s
ThePalmBay–Melbourne–TitusvilleMSAiscomprisedofBrevardCountyonly.Typicallyknownas“Florida’sSpaceCoast,”thisareaishometothekennedySpaceCenter.LocatedinthecentralpartofFlorida’seastcoast,theregionishometoCapeCanaveralAirForceBase,PatrickAirForceBase,andgovernmentcontractorssuchasHarrisCorporation.LikemuchofFlorida,thisareaisgrowingfast;PortCanaveralisnowaleadingcruise-shipport.
QUICkFACTS:• Populationestimateof536,521asofJuly1,
2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• Acivilianlaborforceof256,092inApril
2009(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
• Anunemploymentrateof9.8%asofApril2009,notseasonallyadjusted.Thisamountsto26,067unemployedpeople.(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
TOPAREAEMPLOyERS:• HarrisCorporation–6,700employees• HealthFirst,Inc.–6,420employees• UnitedSpaceAlliance–5,890employees• WuesthoffHealthSystem–2,430employees• SpaceGatewaySupport–1,760employees• NorthropGrummanCorporation–1,640
employees• RockwellCollins,Inc.–1,430employees• SeaRayBoats,Inc.–1,160employees• ParrishMedicalCenter–1,040employees• TheBoeingCompany–1,010employees
Source: Economic Development Commission of Florida’s Space Coast
o U T l o o k s U m m A r I E s
ThePalmBay–Melbourne–TitusvilleMSAisexpectedtoachievemodestgrowthintheeconomicindicators.Personalincomegrowthisexpectedtoaverage4.9percenteachyear.Percapitaincomelevelsshouldaverage30.8.Averageannualwagegrowthisexpectedtobe2.8percent,whileaverageannualwagelevelsshouldbeat47.4.Populationgrowthisexpectedtobeanaverageof0.7percent,andtheGrossMetroProductlevelisexpectedtobe14,686.30(Mill).
Employmentgrowthisforecastedtoaverage0.8percenteachyear.Themetrowillbeseeinganaverageunemploymentrateof10.6percent.
Manufacturingisexpectedtobethefastestgrowingsectorinthearea,averaging2.6percentgrowthannually.EducationandHealthServicesandInformationfollowwithaveragegrowthratesof1.5percenteach.TheFederalGovernmentandtheProfessional&BusinessServicessectorsaretheonlysectorsthatwillexperiencedeclines,withannualgrowthratesof-0.2percentand-0.5percentrespectively.
m E T r o n E w s s U m m A r I E s
Cocoa eyes pension expenses tonight
• TheCocoaCityCouncilwillholdameetingtodiscussreducingthecosttotaxpayersoffirefighterandpoliceofficerpensions.
• Withtheslumpingeconomy,thebonds,stocks,andotherinvestmentaccountsthatordinarilywouldcomprisealargeportionoftheretirementfundhavereducedtheirreturnsignificantly.
• Thedifferencebetweenhowmuchispromisedbythepensionplanandhowmuchmoneyisactuallyreservedfortheplanistheburdenonthetaxpayers.
• AsofOctober1,therewasanestimated$13.5millionpensionplanshortfall.
Source: Florida Today, January 26, 2010
70 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
PA l m B Ay – m E l B o U r n E – T I T U s v I l l E
Brevard courtrooms face budget crunch
• Brevardcourtofficialsarelookingforwaystolessentheimpactofasignificantbudgetshortfallanticipatedfor2010.
• Thepotentiallyunderfundedsegmentsincludecourtreporters,expertwitnesses,andappealtranscripts—aspectsofthejudicialsystemthatstatecourtsadministratorLisaGoodnerargues“arecostsnecessarytoensureafairtrial.”
• Thecombinationofincreasedcaseloads,thewoundedeconomy,andagenerallackoffundingfromthestatelegislaturehavebeenthemaincatalystsinthebudgetcrisis.
Source: Florida Today, February 4, 2010
Despite tough times, United Way surpasses $6.7M goal
• TheUnitedWayofBrevardhasbrokentheirfundraisingrecordforthethirdyearinarow,animpressiveaccomplishmentinaneconomywherecharitieshaveseenanoveralldeclineindonationdollars.
• RobRains,PresidentoftheUnitedWay,wasinspiredbythisyear’snumbers.“Peoplefaceduncertainty,yetknewthatmanyotherswereworseoffandstillgaveandmanyincreasedtheirgiving,”hecommented.
• Roughly250,000individualsandtheirfamiliesbenefitfromtheUnitedWayeveryyear.Theorganizationsponsors76healthandhumanserviceprogramsaswellas46nonprofitagenciesinBrevardCounty.
Source: Florida Today, February 12, 2010
Panel to examine space budget impact
• BrevardCommunityCollegewillhostanopenforumtodiscusstheimpactthatthefederalbudgetwillhaveontheSpaceCoast.
• GuestssuchasWinstonScott,deanoftheCollegeofAeronauticsatFloridaTech,andMarshHeard,spaceadvisorfortheEconomicDevelopmentCommissionofFlorida’sSpaceCoast,areexpectedtocontributetodiscussion.
• BobStover,editorofFloridaToday,expressedhissatisfactionwiththeupcomingdiscussion,remarking,“Weareproudtohelpleadthecommunityconversationbecausesuchapublicairingoftheissueswillhelpusfindthebestwaythroughthistoughperiod.”
Source: Florida Today, March 1, 2010
Business ‘survivors’ expressing optimism
• NewyorkbasedconsultingfirmCITGroupIncorporatedsurveyed220smallbusinessownersandfoundthatthosewhohavesurvivedthepast18monthshaveemergedemboldenedandoptimisticaboutthefuture.
• JessicaZiarno,ownerofTony’sTotalHairSaloninMelbourne,claimedthatshehaslearnedvaluablebusinesslessonsfromthe“UniversityofRecession.”
• PresidentofCITChrisReillyexplainedoptimismlikeMelbournebusinessownerJessicaZiarno’s,stating“Manybelievethatthesurvivalstrategiesthey’veimplementedandhardlessonsthey’velearnedhavebetterpositionedthemforgrowththisyear.”
Source: Florida Today, February 27, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 71
P A l m B Ay – m E l B o U r n E – T I T U s v I l l E
Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSAIndustry Location Quotients
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Total Government
Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Financial Activities
Information
Transportation, Warehousing, and Util iti
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Trade, Transportation, and Util ities
Manufacturing
Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct
Private Service Providing
Service Producing
Goods Producing
Total Private
Total Nonagricultural Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
220.0
210.0
200.0
190.0
180.0
Palm Bay-Melbourne-TitusvillePayroll Employment
(Thousands)
Palm Bay Payroll Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
16000.0
15000.0
14000.013000.0
12000.0
11000.0
10000.0
Palm Bay-Melbourne-TitusvilleReal Gross Metro Product
(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
15.0%12.0%9.0%6.0%3.0%0.0%
-3.0%-6.0%
Palm Bay-Melbourne-TitusvilleReal Personal Income
(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%
Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-TitusvilleUnemployment Rate
(percent)
FL Unemployment RatePalm Bay Unemployment Rate
72 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
PA l m B Ay – m E l B o U r n E – T I T U s v I l l E
Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL* March 2010 Forecast
2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 19 19.5 19.8 20 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.7 21 21.3 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 4.2 4.9 6 5.9 4.3 4 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 Wages and Salaries 8.9 8.9 9 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 10 10.1 Nonwage Income 10.1 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.5Real Personal Income (00$) 15.5 15.9 16 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 2.1 3.1 4.5 4.7 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.6Per Capita Income (Ths) 35.3 36.2 36.6 37 37.3 37.7 37.9 38.2 38.5 38.9 39.4 39.8 40.2 40.6 41Real Per Capita Income (00$) 28.7 29.4 29.7 29.9 30 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.7 31 31.2 31.4 31.6 31.7Average Annual Wage (Ths) 44.6 45.1 45.5 45.9 46.2 46.4 46.7 46.9 47.1 47.4 47.6 47.9 48.2 48.6 48.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.4 3 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 196.4 195.5 195.4 194.7 194.2 194.4 194.7 195.6 196.5 197.2 198.4 199.9 201.4 202.9 204.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2 -2.8 -2 -1.4 -1.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 3Manufacturing 21.8 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.4 22.6 23 23.3 23.5 23.8 24 24.3 24.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.1 -5.1 -2.9 -0.9 0.6 2 3.3 4.4 4.8 5.4 5.1 5 4.6 4.3 4.1Nonmanufacturing 174.6 173.9 173.8 173 172.3 172.3 172.4 172.9 173.5 173.9 174.9 176.1 177.4 178.6 180 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 -2.6 -1.8 -1.4 -1.3 -0.9 -0.8 0 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.9 Construction & Mining 10.8 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.9 9.9 10 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 11 11.3 11.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -13 -14.7 -13.2 -12.2 -8.2 -4.9 -1.8 1.8 3.8 5.2 6.3 7 7.3 8.3 8.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 34.1 33.9 33.9 33.9 33.9 33.9 34 34.2 34.5 34.7 35 35.3 35.5 35.7 36 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.2 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 Wholesale Trade 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 6 6 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 Retail Trade 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.8 25.9 26 26.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3 3 3 3.1 3.1 3.1 Information 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3 3 3 3 3 3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 -1.1 -4.5 -3.1 -1.7 0.5 4.8 4.9 3.8 3.4 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.3 Financial Activities 7.1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.4 -5.7 -4.4 -2.7 -2.2 -1.3 -0.9 -0.1 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.4 1.9 Prof & Business Services 32.6 32.6 32.1 31.8 31.6 31.7 31.3 31.3 31.3 31.1 31.1 31.4 31.8 32.3 32.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2 -3.7 -5.5 -3.4 -3.1 -2.8 -2.4 -1.7 -1.1 -1.9 -0.7 0.4 1.8 3.8 4.7 Educ & Health Services 30.8 30.9 31 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.3 31.6 31.7 31.8 32 32.1 32.3 32.3 32.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.6 2 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 Leisure & Hospitality 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.9 20 20.2 20.3 20.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.7 -3.6 -1.3 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 1.1 2.1 2.4 2.3 Other Services 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 0.9 -0.6 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Federal Government 6.3 6.3 7 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 3.6 15.5 8.1 1.1 0.1 -11.3 -6.3 -2.7 -2.2 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 State & Local Government 22.1 22 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6 -2.9 -1.6 -2.2 -1.7 -1.4 -1.2 -0.8 -0.3 0 0.8 1.4 2 2.4 2.6
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 14001.7 14123.5 14121.5 14151.3 14182 14241.3 14297.3 14405.9 14524.8 14635.9 14778.1 14929.5 15086.8 15201.4 15322.9Population (Ths) 540.3 539.7 539.6 540 540.6 541.3 542.2 543.1 544.5 545.8 547 548.3 549.8 551.4 553.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 0 0 0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1 1.1Labor Force (Ths) 265.4 265 265 265.3 265.7 266 266.2 266.6 267.1 268 268.8 269.6 270.6 271.7 272.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1 -1 -0.9 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5Unemployment Rate (%) 12.1 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.3 12 11.6 11.3 10.9 10.5 10 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5Total Housing Starts 1081 954 1075 1431 2085 2721 3340 3922 4439 4672 4968 5260 5429 5514 5640 Single-Family 1028 820 978 1338 1901 2483 3057 3596 4044 4267 4550 4768 4843 4868 4944 Multifamily 53 133 96 94 184 237 283 326 395 406 417 491 585 646 696
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 73
P A l m B Ay – m E l B o U r n E – T I T U s v I l l E
Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL March 2010 Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 14.2 15.1 16.3 17.5 18.8 19.2 19.3 18.9 19.9 20.7 21.7 22.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 6 7.9 7.6 7.7 2.1 0.3 -2.2 5.2 4 4.9 5.3 Wages and Salaries 7 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.9 9 9.3 9.7 10.2 Nonwage Income 7.2 7.5 8 8.6 9.5 9.8 10.1 10 10.8 11.4 12 12.6Real Personal Income (00$) 13.8 14.3 15 15.7 16.5 16.4 15.9 15.5 16.1 16.5 17 17.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 3.8 5.2 4.5 4.8 -0.6 -2.9 -2.3 3.6 2.5 3.3 3.7Per Capita Income (Ths.) 28.6 29.8 31.3 33.1 35.3 35.8 35.8 35 36.8 38.1 39.6 41.2Real Per Capita Income (00$) 27.7 28.2 29 29.7 30.8 30.4 29.5 28.7 29.8 30.4 31.1 31.8Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 35.6 37.5 39.3 41 42.5 43.6 43.8 43.9 45.7 46.8 47.8 49.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 5.4 4.7 4.5 3.7 2.5 0.5 0.3 3.9 2.4 2.2 2.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 193.8 197.9 206.6 213.8 217.4 213.8 207.5 198.6 195 195.3 199.2 204.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 2.1 4.4 3.5 1.7 -1.7 -3 -4.3 -1.8 0.2 2 2.8Manufacturing 22.9 22.8 23.6 23.9 24.6 24.1 23.7 22.2 21.7 22.5 23.6 24.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.9 -0.5 3.8 1.2 2.7 -1.8 -1.8 -6.3 -2.1 3.6 5 3.7Nonmanufacturing 170.9 175.1 183 189.8 192.9 189.7 183.8 176.4 173.2 172.8 175.6 180.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 2.4 4.5 3.7 1.6 -1.6 -3.1 -4 -1.8 -0.3 1.6 2.7 Construction & Mining 12.7 13 14.8 17.2 18.1 15.4 13.1 11.5 10.1 10.1 10.7 11.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1 2.3 13.6 16.2 5 -15 -14.9 -11.9 -12.2 -0.3 6.5 8.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 34.7 34.2 35.5 37.1 37.4 36.9 35.5 34.1 33.9 34.1 35.1 36 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 -1.6 3.7 4.5 1 -1.5 -3.7 -3.9 -0.7 0.7 3 2.6 Wholesale Trade 4.8 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.5 Retail Trade 26.6 26.3 27.2 28 28.3 28 26.8 25.4 25.4 25.2 25.7 26.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.9 3 3.1 Information 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 3 3 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.8 0 -0.9 6 0.1 -2.6 -0.3 1.2 -2.6 3.5 2.8 2.3 Financial Activities 7.3 7.3 7.8 8.4 8.6 8.6 8.2 7.3 7 7 7.2 7.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 0.7 5.8 7.8 2.4 0.3 -5.2 -10.7 -3.8 -0.3 2.4 1.8 Prof & Business Services 33.4 34.7 37.1 38.7 38.4 36.9 35 33.4 32 31.4 31.4 32.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 4.1 6.8 4.5 -1 -3.9 -5.2 -4.6 -4 -2 -0.1 4.2 Educ & Health Services 25.3 26.7 26.8 27.3 28.2 29.3 30.5 30.6 31 31.4 32 32.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 5.7 0.3 1.8 3.1 4 4.3 0.3 1.3 1.3 2 1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 19.9 20.2 21.1 21.8 22.5 22.9 21.7 20.1 19.8 19.8 20 20.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 1.7 4.4 3.3 3.3 1.5 -5 -7.5 -1.3 0 0.7 2.1 Other Services 7.6 8.2 8.4 8.1 8.1 8 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1 8.4 1.6 -2.8 -0.7 -1 1.2 -0.3 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.5 Federal Government 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.6 6.2 6.1 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 1.2 3.9 1.8 1.7 0.5 0 -0.9 7 -5.3 -1.5 -0.8 State & Local Government 21.6 22.1 22.9 22.2 22.6 22.8 22.8 22.3 21.8 21.6 21.9 22.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.6 3.3 -2.8 1.7 1.1 -0.3 -2 -2.1 -0.9 1.1 2.6
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 12105 12830 13908 14985 15522 15419 15556 14890 14145 14367 14858 15376Population (Ths) 496.2 506.2 518.9 528.7 533.5 537.4 539.3 540 540 542.8 547.7 554.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 2 2.5 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0 0.5 0.9 1.2Labor Force (Ths) 238.2 242 247.6 256.2 261.8 263.9 267.8 266.1 265.2 266.4 269.2 273.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.6 2.3 3.5 2.2 0.8 1.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6Unemployment Rate (%) 5.7 5.2 4.4 3.6 3.3 4.3 6.5 10.8 12.5 11.5 9.8 8.4Total Housing Starts 6591 6115 8212 8487 5346 2815 1789 994 1386 3606 5082 5675 Single-Family 5091 5578 6313 7206 4370 2209 1292 870 1259 3295 4607 4982 Multifamily 1500 537 1899 1281 977 606 496 123 127 310 475 693
74 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
P E n s A C o l A – F E r r y PA s s – B r E n T
P r o F I l E s
ThePensacola–FerryPass–BrentMSAiscomprisedofEscambiaCountyandSantaRosaCounty.LocatedinthenorthwestcornerofthestateborderingAlabama,thisregionishometothePensacolaNavalAirStation,BlueAngels,andtheNationalMuseumofNavalAviation.Thisareahasbeenreferredtoasthe“CradleofNavalAviation.”
QUICkFACTS:• Metropopulationestimateof452,992asof
July1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• EscambiaCountypopulationestimateof
302,939asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• SantaRosaCountypopulationestimateof150,053asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• Acivilianlaborforceof208,821inApril2009(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
• Anunemploymentrateof8.7%asofApril2009,notseasonallyadjusted.Thisamountsto18,185unemployedpeoplethroughouttheentireregion.(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
TOPAREAEMPLOyERS:• LocalGovernment–15,790employees• FederalGovernment–7,403employees• StateGovernment–5,970employees• SacredHeartHealthSystem–5,000
employees• BaptistHeathCare–3,163employees• Lakeview–2,000employees• GulfPowerCompany–1,400employees• Solutia,Inc.–1,400employees• WestFloridaHospital–1,300employees• UniversityofWestFlorida–1,231employees
Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce
o U T l o o k s U m m A r I E s
ThePensacola–FerryPass–BrentMSAisexpectedtoseelowlevelsofgrowthintheeconomicindicators,relativetoothermetroareas.Personalincomegrowthisexpectedtoaverage4.4percenteachyear,oneofthelowestinthestate.Thepercapitaincomelevel,alsoamongthelowestinthestate,isexpectedtobe27.4.Theaverageannualwagegrowthrateshouldbeat2.5percent,tiedforlowestinthestate.Theaverageannualwagelevelisexpectedtobe40.3.Populationgrowthwillbeatarateof0.3percent,thesecondlowestinthestate,andtheGrossMetroProductwillbeatalevelof11,108.13(Mill).
Employmentgrowthisexpectedtoaverage0.5percenteachyear,tiedforsecondlowestinthestate.Theunemploymentratewillaverage9.5percent.
ManufacturingwillbethefastestgrowingsectorinPensacola,with1.5percentaverageannualgrowth.Construction&Miningfollowswithagrowthrateof1.1percent.TheFinancial,Professional&BusinessServices,andFederalGovernmentsectorsaretheonlysectorsexperiencingdeclines,withaverageannualgrowthratesof-0.1percent,-0.3percent,and-1.3percent,respectively.
m E T r o n E w s s U m m A r I E s
Industry incentives given OK
• SantaRosaCountyCommissionapprovedthousandsofdollarsinincentivestohelplureprospectivenewindustriestothecounty.
• Theincentiveswillbebasedonthenumberofnewpositionsacompanyisexpectedtocreatewithinfiveyears,aswellasthequalityofthosepositionsbasedonaveragewage.Prospectivenewindustriescouldseehundredsofdollarsforeachnewjobtheycreate.
• FundingfortheincentiveswillcomefromtheSantaRosaCounty’seconomicdevelopmentfund,whichissupportedbyelectricityfranchisefees.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 12, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 75
P E n s A C o l A – F E r r y P A s s – B r E n T
Port gets $1.7 million from FEMA
• FEMAhasallocatednearly$1.7millioninfederalgrantmoneytothePortofPensacolatopayforhomelandsecurityupgrades.
• Thefirstyear’sallotmentofthegrantmoneywillbeusedtodevelopanemergencyoperationscenter,tobehousedintheCityofPensacolaFireAdministrationbuilding.
• Thegrantmoneywillalsobeusedforemergencyplanning,surveillanceprotectionofEnergyServicesofPensacola,infrastructureenhancements,andemergencymanagementtrainingforfirstresponders.
• ThePensacolaBayAreaChamberofCommerceisinchargeofdispersingtheFEMAgrantmoney.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 20, 2010
Stimulus to help build, restore area homes
• PensacolaHabitatforHumanitywillreceiveabout$24millionfromHabitatforHumanityInternationaltobuild195newhomesandrestore45more.HabitatInternationalreceived$141millionfromaprogramthatispartoftheAmericanReinvestment&RecoveryActof2009.
• ThenonprofitwilltargettwoCensustracksinSouthSantaRosaCountyandeightCensustracksinthewesternurbancoreofPensacola.
• Since1981,thePensacolachapterhasbuiltorrestoredatotalof656homesinEscambiaandSantaRosacounties.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, March 11, 2010
Schools get $22M from half-cent sales tax
• EscambiaCountySchoolDistrictwillreceive$22millionworthofunanticipatedupgradesandrenovationsthisyearasaresultofthehalf-centsalestax.
• Thesalestaxgeneratesabout$20millioneachyearforschoolconstructionandrenovationprojects.The$22millionwasleftoverfromaccruedinterestandsavingsfromprojectsthatwerefinishedunderbudget.
• PineForestHighSchool,oneofthegreatestbeneficiaries,willreceivea$1.6millionfacilityfortheNavalJuniorReserveOfficerTrainingCorps,replacingthreesmallportablescurrentlyhousingthe180-cadetprogram.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, March 12, 2010
Gulf Breeze Hospital eyes $5M expansion
• GulfBreezeHospitalisexpandingitscapacitybyadding12newpatientroomsandanewin-patientphysicaltherapyandrehabilitationunittomeetgrowingdemand.
• Ofthe12newpatientrooms,twowillbeaddedtothehospital’sintensivecareunitand10willbeaddedtotheannexonthehospital’seastside.Thenewbedswillbringthehospital’sin-patientcapacityto77.
• Thehospital’sgrowthhasbeenattributedtoincreasingdemandforitsoncologists,amongotherfactors.
• Theexpansionisexpectedtobecompletedbytheendoftheyear.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, March 13, 2010
76 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
P E n s A C o l A – F E r r y PA s s – B r E n T
Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSAIndustry Location Quotients
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
Total Government
Other Services Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services
Financial Activities Information
Transportation, Warehousing, and Util iti Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade Trade, Transportation, and Util ities
Manufacturing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct
Private Service Providing Service Producing
Goods Producing Total Private
Total Nonagricultural Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
175.0
170.0
165.0
160.0
155.0
150.0
Pensacola Payroll Employment(Thousands)
Pensacola Payroll Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
12000.0
11500.0
11000.0
10500.0
10000.0
9500.0
9000.0
8500.0
Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%
-2.0%-4.0%
Pensacola Real Personal Income(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%
Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RatePensacola Unemployment Rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 77
P E n s A C o l A – F E r r y P A s s – B r E n T
Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL* March 2010 Forecast
2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 14.4 14.7 14.9 15 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.8 16 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 4.1 4.6 5.3 5 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.6 Wages and Salaries 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7 7 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 Nonwage Income 7.8 8 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.8 8.9 9 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4Real Personal Income (00$) 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 2 2.8 3.8 3.8 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1Per Capita Income (Ths) 31.5 32.3 32.6 33 33.3 33.6 33.8 34.1 34.4 34.7 35.1 35.4 35.7 36 36.3Real Per Capita Income (00$) 25.7 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 27 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 28 28.2Average Annual Wage (Ths) 38.3 38.7 39 39.3 39.5 39.7 39.8 40 40.1 40.3 40.5 40.7 40.9 41.2 41.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 4.3 3.7 3.6 3 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 160.7 159.8 159.7 158.8 158.2 158.1 158.2 158.7 159.3 159.7 160.6 161.5 162.5 163.5 164.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5 -2.2 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1 -0.9 0 0.7 1 1.5 1.8 2 2.3 2.4Manufacturing 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 6 6 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.4 -7.6 -4.9 -2.7 -0.3 1.3 2.7 4 4.5 4.9 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.2 3.1Nonmanufacturing 155 154.1 154.1 153.2 152.5 152.4 152.5 152.9 153.4 153.7 154.5 155.4 156.4 157.3 158.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 -2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.1 -1 -0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.7 2 2.3 2.4 Construction & Mining 11.1 10.7 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.7 -8 -8.3 -9.7 -8.7 -5.5 -2.4 1.2 3.2 4.5 5.7 6.4 6.6 7.5 8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 31.8 31.6 31.5 31.5 31.5 31.5 31.6 31.8 32.1 32.3 32.6 32.8 33 33.1 33.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -2.5 -3.4 -3.1 -0.9 -0.5 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.1 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 Wholesale Trade 6.1 6 6 6 6 6 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 Retail Trade 21.1 21 21 21 21 20.9 20.8 20.9 21 21.1 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5 5 Information 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 -3.2 -5.6 -3 -2 0.3 4.4 4.5 3.4 3 2.2 2.1 2.3 2 1.9 Financial Activities 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.7 -4.1 -2 -2.7 -2.7 -1.7 -1.4 -0.6 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.4 Prof & Business Services 19.1 19.1 18.8 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.1 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.8 19 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3 -2 -2.5 -3 -3.6 -3.1 -2.8 -2 -1.3 -2 -0.8 0.3 1.7 3.7 4.8 Educ & Health Services 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29 29.1 29.1 29.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 Leisure & Hospitality 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.9 17 17.1 17.2 17.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.9 -4.1 -1.7 1.1 -0.3 0.3 0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 0 1 1.9 2.2 2.1 Other Services 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 1.9 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.9 1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Federal Government 6.4 6.4 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1 -1 10.8 3.7 0.7 -0.5 -11.7 -6.5 -3.1 -2.6 -1.9 -1.6 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 State & Local Government 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.1 22 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.9 22 22.1 22.2 22.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1 0.1 -0.3 -1.6 -2.3 -2 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.6 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.8 2
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 10766.2 10765.4 10756.6 10770.7 10786.8 10826.2 10856.2 10924.9 11003.9 11075 11168.8 11265.3 11366.3 11432.3 11508.6Population (Ths) 457.1 456.2 455.5 455.1 454.9 454.8 454.9 455.3 455.9 456.7 457.5 458.4 459.3 460.5 461.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9Labor Force (Ths) 209.2 208.4 208.1 207.9 208 208 207.9 207.9 208.1 208.5 208.9 209.4 210 210.6 211.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -2 -1.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1 1.1Unemployment Rate (%) 10.7 11 11.2 11.3 11 10.8 10.5 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.1 8.6 8.3 7.9 7.7Total Housing Starts 1166 915 969 1148 1475 1779 2041 2256 2408 2505 2635 2711 2783 2825 2876 Single-Family 1147 889 959 1140 1427 1707 1950 2153 2286 2385 2516 2570 2611 2633 2667 Multifamily 19 26 10 8 48 72 91 103 122 120 119 141 172 193 209
*Quarterly at an annual rate
78 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
P E n s A C o l A – F E r r y PA s s – B r E n T
Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL March 2010 Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 10.8 11.3 12.1 12.9 14 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4 4.8 7.2 7.1 8.6 2.8 0.6 -1.9 4.8 3.5 4.4 4.7 Wages and Salaries 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.4 Nonwage Income 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.7 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.5Real Personal Income (00$) 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.6 12.3 12.3 12 11.7 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 2.7 4.4 4 5.7 0.1 -2.7 -2.1 3.1 2 2.8 3.1Per Capita Income (Ths.) 25.1 25.9 27.3 28.9 31.1 31.8 31.9 31.2 32.8 33.9 35.2 36.5Real Per Capita Income (00$) 24.3 24.6 25.3 26 27.1 27.1 26.3 25.7 26.5 27.1 27.6 28.2Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 30.2 31.4 33.2 34.5 36.2 37 37.7 37.7 39.1 39.9 40.6 41.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 3.7 5.9 4 5 2.2 2 -0.1 3.7 2.1 1.8 2.3
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 155.4 159.3 163.7 169.5 173.9 174 167.4 161.9 159.1 158.6 161.1 164.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 2.5 2.8 3.5 2.6 0.1 -3.8 -3.3 -1.8 -0.3 1.6 2.3Manufacturing 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7 6.5 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.1 1.1 -1.3 3.1 -1.4 -5.2 -7.3 -10.3 -4 3.1 4.3 2.7Nonmanufacturing 148.1 151.9 156.4 161.9 166.5 167 160.9 156.1 153.5 152.8 155 158.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 2.5 3 3.6 2.8 0.3 -3.6 -3 -1.7 -0.4 1.5 2.3 Construction & Mining 11.1 10.8 11.6 13.9 15.3 14.8 12.8 11.3 10.4 10.3 10.9 11.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.4 -2.8 7.8 19.4 10.4 -3.9 -13.4 -11.3 -8.7 -0.9 5.8 8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 29.9 30.2 31.2 33.1 33 33.8 32.5 32.4 31.5 31.7 32.7 33.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 1 3.1 6.1 -0.2 2.5 -3.9 -0.6 -2.5 0.6 2.9 2.3 Wholesale Trade 5.3 5.3 5.6 6.2 6.2 6.7 6.2 6.1 6 6.2 6.4 6.6 Retail Trade 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.9 21.8 22.2 21.5 21.5 21 20.9 21.3 21.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.1 4.1 4.5 5 5 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.9 5 Information 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 13.6 -2 -4.5 -4.7 0.7 -5.7 -2.5 -6.8 -3.5 3.1 2.4 1.9 Financial Activities 6.5 6.8 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -6 4.6 9.8 9.9 8.4 3.1 -3.3 -2.2 -2.9 -0.8 1.9 1.3 Prof & Business Services 19.2 20.1 21.6 23.1 23.2 22.3 20.9 19.3 18.7 18.3 18.3 19 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 4.6 7.2 7.1 0.5 -4.2 -6.1 -7.8 -2.8 -2.3 -0.2 4.3 Educ & Health Services 25.3 26.8 26.7 26 27.5 28.7 28.1 28 28.2 28.5 29 29.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 6.2 -0.4 -2.9 5.9 4.3 -2 -0.2 0.7 1 1.5 0.9 Leisure & Hospitality 15.7 16.6 17.4 17.3 17.7 17.7 17.6 17 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 6.1 4.7 -0.9 2.5 0 -0.2 -3.3 -1.3 -0.1 0.6 1.9 Other Services 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.6 0.9 -1.6 0 -0.4 -3.8 -2.8 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 Federal Government 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.3 6.2 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.2 -0.5 -2.2 -0.5 0.4 -2.5 -0.7 -0.6 3.5 -5.6 -1.8 -1.1 State & Local Government 21.6 21.6 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.7 22.6 22.4 22.2 21.8 21.9 22.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 0 0.9 1.9 1.4 1.1 -0.5 -1 -1 -1.5 0.4 2
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 9321.7 9679.8 10255 10561 10933 10723 10612 10479 10770 10903 11219 11541Population (Ths) 429.1 435.4 441.9 447.4 452.2 453.7 455.4 456.4 455.4 455.2 458 462.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.2 0 0.6 0.9Labor Force (Ths) 187.3 191.1 193.8 199.7 205 209 209.7 210.1 208.1 208 209.2 211.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 2.1 1.4 3.1 2.6 2 0.3 0.2 -1 -0.1 0.6 1.2Unemployment Rate (%) 5.3 4.8 4.6 3.8 3.1 3.8 5.8 9.7 11.1 10.3 8.9 7.5Total Housing Starts 3141 4426 4713 3764 2765 2469 1412 1087 1127 2121 2659 2895 Single-Family 2955 3558 3629 3285 2325 1779 1203 1019 1104 2024 2520 2688 Multifamily 186 868 1083 479 440 691 209 68 23 97 138 207
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 79
TA l l A H A s s E E
P r o F I l E s
TheTallahasseeMSAiscomprisedofGadsden,Jefferson,Leon,andWakullacounties.ItislocatedbetweenPensacolaandJacksonville.TallahasseeisthecapitalcityofFloridaandhousesFloridaStateUniversityandFloridaA&MUniversity.
QUICkFACTS:• Metropopulationestimateof357,259asof
July1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• GadsdenCountypopulationestimateof
47,560asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• JeffersonCountypopulationestimateof14,547asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• LeonCountypopulationestimateof264,063asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• WakullaCountypopulationestimateof31,089asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• AnMSAcivilianlaborforceof190,097inApril2009(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
• Anunemploymentrateof6.4%asofApril2009,notseasonallyadjusted.Thisamountsto12,163unemployedpeoplefortheentireregion.(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
TOPAREAEMPLOyERS:• StateGovernment(alldepartments)–46,500
employees• LocalGovernment(alldepartments)–
16,100employees• TallahasseeMemorialHealthcare–2,750
employees• FederalGovernment(alldepartments)–
1,900employees• PublixSuperMarkets,Inc.–2,000
employees
• Wal-MartStores,Inc.–1,900employees• CapitalRegionalMedicalCenter–878
employees• ACS(AffiliatedComputerServices)–852
employees• TallahasseeLeonCountyCivicCenter–672
employees• CapitalCityBankGroup–626employees
Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council and Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation (CES)
o U T l o o k s U m m A r I E s
TheTallahasseeMSAisexpectedtoshowminimalgrowthintheeconomicindicatorsrelativetoothermetroareasinthestate.Theareashouldseepersonalincomegrowthaveraging4.2percenteachyear,thelowestinthestate.Percapitaincomelevelsshouldaverage27.8.Averageannualwagegrowthisexpectedtobe2.9percent,andtheaverageannualwagelevelwillbe41.8.Populationgrowthwillbeat0.6percent,andtheGrossMetroProductwillbeatalevelof10,520.18(Mill).
Employmentgrowthisexpectedtobe0.1percenteachyear,thelowestinthestate.Theunemploymentrate,however,willaverage7.4percent,thesecondlowestinthestate.
ManufacturingwillbethefastestgrowingsectorinTallahassee,averaging2.2percentannually.TheConstruction&MiningandInformationsectorsfollowwithgrowthratesof1.2percentand1.1percentrespectively.TheFinancialandFederalGovernmentsectorswillexperiencethegreatestdeclines,withannualgrowthratesof-0.8percentand-1.1percentrespectively.
m E T r o n E w s s U m m A r I E s
New companies growing at Innovation Park
• TheSmallBusinessDevelopmentCenteratInnovationParkhasbeenpraisedbyentrepreneursforitsstrongsupportforstartups.
80 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
TA l l A H A s s E E
• TheInnovationParkTechnologyCommercializationGrantprogramhelpsinnovativebusinessesbyproviding$15,000grantsandaffordablelabfacilities.Morethan$200,000ingrantshavebeenawardedsincethestartoftheprogramfiveyearsago.
• Besidesthegrantandincubatorprogram,entrepreneursreceiveassistanceindevelopingtheirbusinessplans,strengtheningtheirfinancialmanagementskills,anddevelopingmarketingstrategies.
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 16, 2010
Proposed charter change would give Tallahassee mayor power to give business incentives
• ThechangestotheTallahassee’scharterwouldgrantthecity’smayorpowerstogivecashincentivestobusinessesmovingtoorexpandingtheirpresenceinTallahassee.
• Thesepowersaredesignedtogivethemayortheabilitytorespondquicklytoeconomicdevelopmentopportunitieswithoutconsultingthecommissionersfirst.
• Thecharter-reviewcommitteeexpressedstrongopinionsthattheincentivefundsshouldonlybeusedforcertaintargetedindustries,andrejectedthepropositiontoincreasethemayor’spowersintothoseofthecity’sCEO.
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 24, 2010
EDC accepting applications for Recovery Zone facility Bond Program
• Tallahassee/LeonCountyhasbeendesignatedan“EconomicRecoveryZone”undertheAmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentAct,providinglow-interest,tax-exemptloansforlocalbusinesses.
• TallahasseeandLeonCountywereallocated$6,213,000and$3,582,000inbondingauthority,respectively,makinglong-termfinancingavailabletoeligibleprivatedevelopers.
• Thedeadlineforapplicationsubmissionis5PMApril1st.Businessesmayrequestaminimumof$2million,andnomorethanthecombinedcityandcountylimitinallocations.
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, March 8, 2010
Candlewood Suites opens in Tallahassee
• CandlewoodSuites,adivisionofInterContinentalHotelGroup,hasopenedanewextended-stay,114-roomhotel.Theprojectrepresentsaninvestmentofalmost$10million.
• Amenitiesincludeflat-screenTVs,in-roomkitchenswithfull-sizerefrigerators,stoves,dishesandutensils,aswellassharedfreelaundryfacilities,apool,agazeboandasnackroom.
• DirectorofSales,TonyaBurke,believesthatthereisaneedforextended-stayhotelsinTallahasseeandisreadytocompetewithovernight-stayhotels.
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, March 10, 2010
City seeks nod from Google for broadband
• TallahasseehasappliedtoparticipateinGoogle’sprojecttobringsuper-broadbandInternetaccesstothecommunity.Theapplicationconsistsoftwocomponents,withthecity’spartcoveringtheutilityaspectoftheproject,andthecommunity’spartexplainingthereasonsGoogleshouldpickTallahassee.
• Cityofficialsarequotedsayingthatthecostsoftheprojectwerestillunknown.ThemayoralsoexpressedasentimentthatevenifTallahasseewasn’tchosenforGoogle’sproject,therecouldbeotherwaystoimplementitwithoutGoogle.
• Google’sprojectnotwithstanding,thecommissionersalsoapprovedaone-yearextensionoftheGoodNeighborProgram,providingweatherizationassistancetotheunderprivileged.
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, March 11, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 81
TA l l A H A s s E E
Tallahassee MSAIndustry Location Quotients
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Total Government
Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Financial Activities
Information
Transportation, Warehousing, and Util iti
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Trade, Transportation, and Util ities
Manufacturing
Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct
Private Service Providing
Service Producing
Goods Producing
Total Private
Total Nonagricultural Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
180.0
175.0
170.0
165.0
160.0
155.0
Tallahassee Payroll Employment(Thousands)
Tallahassee Payroll Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
100000.0
95000.0
90000.0
85000.0
80000.0
75000.0
70000.0
65000.0
Tampa Real Gross Metro Product(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%
-2.0%-4.0%
Tallahassee Real Personal Income(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%
Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RateTallahassee Unemployment Rate
82 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
TA l l A H A s s E E
Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL* March 2010 Forecast
2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 11.7 12 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 3.8 4.1 4.6 4.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 Wages and Salaries 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 7 7 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 Nonwage Income 5 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6 6 6.1 6.2Real Personal Income (00$) 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.9 10 10 10 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 1.7 2.3 3.2 3.6 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.7 2 2.6 3 3.2 3.3 3.3Per Capita Income (Ths) 32.2 33 33.3 33.6 33.8 34.1 34.3 34.5 34.8 35.1 35.5 35.8 36.1 36.5 36.8Real Per Capita Income (00$) 26.3 26.8 27 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5Average Annual Wage (Ths) 39.4 39.8 40.2 40.5 40.8 41 41.2 41.4 41.6 41.9 42.1 42.3 42.6 42.9 43.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 4.4 4 4 3.5 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 170.4 169.4 168.6 167.8 167.2 167.1 167 167.3 167.7 168 168.8 169.7 170.7 171.7 172.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -2.8 -2.4 -2.6 -1.9 -1.4 -1 -0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3Manufacturing 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4 4 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.2 -8.8 -4.9 -3 0.3 2 3.6 5 5.6 6 5.4 5.1 4.5 4 3.9Nonmanufacturing 166.6 165.6 164.8 164.1 163.4 163.2 163.1 163.3 163.6 163.9 164.6 165.5 166.5 167.4 168.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 -2.7 -2.3 -2.5 -1.9 -1.4 -1.1 -0.5 0.1 0.4 1 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.3 Construction & Mining 7.5 7.2 7 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 7 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.3 -6.6 -6.8 -9 -8.6 -5.5 -2.4 1.2 3.2 4.7 5.9 6.5 6.6 7.3 7.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.5 -5.8 -6.7 -2.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 Wholesale Trade 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 Retail Trade 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.9 17 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2 2 2 2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Information 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.5 -2 -3 -5.4 -1.8 0.1 4.5 4.2 3 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.1 2.1 Financial Activities 7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 7 7 7 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.6 -9.6 -5.4 -3.3 -2.8 -1.9 -1.5 -0.6 0.8 1.4 1.8 2 2 1.7 1.3 Prof & Business Services 19.1 19 18.7 18.5 18.4 18.4 18.1 18.1 18.1 18 18 18.2 18.5 18.7 19 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6 -1.1 -2.3 -2.8 -3.9 -3.2 -2.9 -2.1 -1.2 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 1.9 3.9 5.2 Educ & Health Services 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.2 1 1 0.9 Leisure & Hospitality 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 -1.9 -1.6 -1.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.8 1.8 2.2 2.1 Other Services 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0 1 1 1.1 0.7 1 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 Federal Government 1.9 1.9 2.1 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -5 -0.2 12.5 1 0.9 -0.8 -11.6 -6.4 -2.6 -2.2 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 State & Local Government 60.7 60.3 60 59.6 59.3 59.1 58.9 58.8 58.8 58.9 59.1 59.3 59.6 59.9 60.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -2.4 -1.9 -3.5 -2.4 -2.1 -1.8 -1.2 -0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.8
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 10187.6 10230.8 10213.4 10222.1 10230 10259 10282.8 10343.9 10418.1 10485.1 10570.3 10658.7 10752.9 10812.4 10883.6Population (Ths) 364.4 363.7 363.7 363.9 364.2 364.5 364.6 365 365.6 366.4 367.2 368.1 369 369.9 370.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1 1Labor Force (Ths) 187.2 186 185.5 185.2 185.2 185.3 185.2 185.3 185.5 186 186.5 187 187.6 188.2 188.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 -3.1 -2.7 -1.7 -1.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2Unemployment Rate (%) 8.3 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.4 7 6.7 6.4 6.2 6Total Housing Starts 754 709 786 922 1170 1435 1656 1857 2018 2116 2264 2405 2486 2532 2588 Single-Family 688 549 624 780 1016 1256 1472 1655 1783 1868 1985 2073 2099 2102 2125 Multifamily 66 159 162 142 154 178 184 202 235 248 278 332 387 429 463
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 83
TA l l A H A s s E E
Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL March 2010 Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 8.6 9 9.7 10.5 11.1 11.6 11.8 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 4.3 8.2 7.5 6.4 4.3 1.6 -1.3 4.3 3.4 4.3 4.9 Wages and Salaries 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.5 Nonwage Income 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2Real Personal Income (00$) 8.4 8.5 9 9.4 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.8 10 10.3 10.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 2.2 5.4 4.4 3.6 1.5 -1.7 -1.5 2.7 1.9 2.7 3.4Per Capita Income (Ths.) 26.2 26.9 28.7 30.4 31.9 32.7 32.8 32.1 33.4 34.4 35.6 37Real Per Capita Income (00$) 25.4 25.5 26.6 27.3 27.9 27.8 27 26.4 27 27.4 28 28.6Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 32.7 33.6 35 35.8 36.8 38 38.6 38.8 40.3 41.3 42.2 43.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.7 4.1 2.5 2.7 3.3 1.5 0.5 3.9 2.5 2.2 2.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 164.4 165.7 168.2 172.8 177 179 176.9 172.4 168.3 167.2 169.3 173.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 0.8 1.5 2.8 2.4 1.1 -1.2 -2.5 -2.4 -0.6 1.2 2.2Manufacturing 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.4 4 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.6 -0.6 2 0.8 4.9 2.8 -4.8 -9.1 -4.2 4.1 5.2 3.5Nonmanufacturing 160.2 161.6 163.9 168.5 172.5 174.4 172.5 168.4 164.5 163.3 165.1 168.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 0.8 1.5 2.8 2.4 1.1 -1.1 -2.4 -2.4 -0.7 1.1 2.2 Construction & Mining 7.2 7.7 8.3 9.4 9.8 9.5 8.6 7.6 7 6.9 7.3 7.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 7.1 8.6 12.4 4.8 -3 -9.6 -11.8 -7.8 -0.9 5.9 7.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 23.4 23.5 24.6 25.4 25.6 25.3 24.2 22.8 21.9 21.9 22.5 23 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1 0.5 4.4 3.4 0.9 -1.2 -4.4 -5.9 -4 0.3 2.5 2.1 Wholesale Trade 3.2 3 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 Retail Trade 18.1 18.5 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.2 18.5 17.3 16.6 16.5 16.8 17.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.1 2 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 2 1.9 2 2.1 2.1 Information 4 3.8 4 4.1 3.9 4 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.4 -3.8 4.6 1.9 -4.7 2.6 -3.7 -10.7 -3.1 2.9 2.5 2.1 Financial Activities 7.4 7.7 7.6 8 8.3 8.2 8 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.9 7 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.4 3 -0.7 4.8 4.4 -1.9 -1.8 -9.8 -5.4 -0.8 1.8 1.2 Prof & Business Services 18.2 18.2 18.2 19.2 20.1 19.9 19.6 19.1 18.6 18.2 18.2 19 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 -0.1 -0.2 5.5 4.9 -1.1 -1.2 -2.7 -2.5 -2.4 0 4.6 Educ & Health Services 16.5 16.7 16.4 16.8 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 1.1 -1.7 2.7 3.4 3.9 4.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.8 Leisure & Hospitality 13.4 13.6 14.4 15.6 16.2 16.7 16.5 16.6 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 1.6 6.1 8.3 3.3 3.7 -1.7 0.8 -1.4 -0.3 0.5 1.9 Other Services 8.1 7.8 8 8 8.5 9 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 -3.7 2.8 -0.6 5.8 5.9 5.1 -0.9 1 1 0.4 0.5 Federal Government 1.9 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2 1.9 2 1.9 1.9 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 3 -3.3 0 -1.7 0 4 -2.6 3.5 -5.5 -1.5 -0.7 State & Local Government 60.1 60.6 60.5 60.1 60.8 61.8 61.4 61.4 59.8 58.9 59.2 60.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 0.8 -0.1 -0.5 1.2 1.6 -0.6 -0.1 -2.6 -1.5 0.6 1.8
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 9378.9 9572.3 9808.5 10195 10391 10521 10452 10188 10224 10326 10617 10914Population (Ths) 328.9 334.1 338.8 343.8 349.5 355.3 359.5 362.9 363.9 364.9 367.7 371.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.2 1 0.3 0.3 0.8 1Labor Force (Ths) 172.5 173.4 172.9 176.4 181.4 186.3 190.4 189.5 185.5 185.3 186.8 189.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0 0.5 -0.3 2.1 2.8 2.7 2.2 -0.5 -2.1 -0.1 0.8 1.2Unemployment Rate (%) 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.2 2.8 3.2 4.6 7.4 8.6 8 6.9 5.9Total Housing Starts 2661 3822 3382 3702 3096 2765 1507 847 897 1741 2318 2609 Single-Family 2177 2424 2131 2767 2536 2171 1038 690 742 1542 2006 2137 Multifamily 483 1398 1251 934 560 594 469 158 154 200 311 472
84 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
TA m PA – s T . P E T E r s B U r g – C l E A r wAT E r
P r o F I l E s
TheTampa–St.Petersburg–ClearwaterMSAiscomprisedofHernando,Hillsborough,Pasco,andPinellascounties.LocatedcentrallyonthewestcoastofFlorida,thisregionincludesTarponSprings,SpongeDocks,yborCity,BushGardens,theUniversityofSouthFlorida,andtheUniversityofTampa.TheTampaBayBuccaneersandtheDevilRaysalsocallthisregionhome.
QUICkFACTS:• MSApopulationestimateof2,733,761asof
July1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)• HernandoCountypopulationestimateof
171,689asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• HillsboroghCountypopulationestimateof1,180,784asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• PascoCountypopulationestimateof471,028asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• PinellasCountypopulationestimateof910,260asofJuly1,2008(U.S.CensusBureau)
• Acivilianlaborforceof1,315,637inApril2009fortheentireregion(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
• Anunemploymentrateof10.1%asofApril2009,notseasonallyadjusted.Thisamountsto64,031unemployedpeoplethroughouttheentireregion.(FloridaResearchandEconomicDatabase)
TOPAREAEMPLOyERS:• HillsboroughCountySchoolDistrict–
25,487employees• VerizonCommunications–14,000
employees• MacDillAirForceBase–12,000employees• UniversityofSouthFlorida–11,607
employees
• HillsboroughCountyGovernment–10,886employees
• TampaInternationalAirport–7,760employees
• JamesAHaleyVeteransHospital–5,900employees
• St.Joseph’sHospital–5,242employees• JPMorganChase–5,237employees• VerizonInformationTechnologies–5,000
employeesSource: Committee of One Hundred Research
o U T l o o k s U m m A r I E s
TheTampa–St.Petersburg–ClearwaterMSAisexpectedtoshowmoderategrowthintheeconomicindicators.Personalincomegrowthisexpectedtobe5.4percentonaverageeachyear,andthepercapitaincomelevelwillaverage32.0annually.Averageannualwagegrowthisexpectedtobe2.9percent,oneofthehighestinthestate.Theaverageannualwagelevelwillbe46.7.Populationgrowthwillaverage0.7percent,andTampaisforecastedtohavethesecondhighestGrossMetroProduct,averagingalevelof92,634.03(Mill).
Employmentgrowthisexpectedtobe2.0percentannually,tiedforsecondhighestinthestate.Theunemploymentrateisexpectedtoaverage10.5percent.
ThefastestgrowingsectorintheTampaareaisProfessionalandBusinessServices,growing6.7percenteachyear.TheConstruction&MiningandManufacturingsectorsfollowwithaverageannualgrowthratesof2.5percentand2.1percent,respectively.TheFederalGovernmentsectoristheonlysectorthatwillexperienceadecline,withanannualgrowthrateof-0.4percent.TheFinancialandState&LocalGovernmentsectorswillexperiencenogrowth.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 85
TA m P A – s T . P E T E r s B U r g – C l E A r w AT E r
m E T r o n E w s s U m m A r I E s
Massive Hernando County development wins planning board approval• Zoningandmasterplanapprovalforthe
LakeHideawayprojectwasunanimouslyrecommendedbytheHernandoCountyPlanningandZoningCommission.
• The885-acredevelopmentplannedfornorthofSpringHillwillincludeasmanyas3,700housingunits,neighborhoodcommercialretailspace,andofficeandprofessionalspace.Theprojectwillalsoincludeanewschool,acommunitypark,andpublicfacilities.
• TheCountyCommissionstillmustapprovetheprojectbeforerezoningcantakeplace.
Source: St. Petersburg Times, January 11, 2010
Skanska awarded USF contract for teaching and research facility• SkanskaUSA,headquarteredinNewyork,
wona$55millioncontracttobuildanewinterdisciplinaryfacilityattheUniversityofSouthFlorida.
• Thefacilitywillbe72,600squarefeetandwillhouseteachingandresearchcapacitiesforphysics,biology,chemistry,anatomy,andnanotechnologies.
• ThebuildingwillmeetgoldlevelcertificationrequirementsintheLeadershipinEnergyandEnvironmentalDesignclassificationsystemforgreenbuildings.
• ConstructionisexpectedtobecompletedbyAugust2011.
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, January 19, 2010
Hernando schools need $4.5 million to meet class-size requirements this fall• Tomeetnextyear’sclasssizerequirements,the
HernandoCountySchoolDistrictwillhavetoadd78teachingpositions,whichwillcostapproximately$4.5million.
• ByAugust,classesmustbecappedat18studentsperteacherinelementaryschools,22inmiddleschools,and25inhighschools.Ifthecounty
failstomeettheserequirements,thestatecouldforcerezoning,doublesessions,ayear-roundcalendar,and/orafineonthedistrictof$1.2million.
• Thedistrictislookingatshiftingstafffromsupportpositionstocoreteachingrolesandcuttingservicessuchassportsandtransportation,amongotherconsiderations,tomeettheserequirements.
Source: St. Petersburg Times, January 20, 2010
TBARTA chair: Momentous day for regional mass transit• TheTampaBayAreaRegionalTransportation
Authority’splantocreatearegionalmasstransitsystemgotabigboostafterPresidentObamaannouncedthatthefederalgovernmentwouldspend$1.25billionontheproject.
• Thehigh-speedrailsystemwillhavestopsindowntownTampa,Lakeland,DisneyWorld,andOrlandoInternationalAirport.Constructioncouldstartassoonas2011andbecompletedby2014.
• IfHillsboroughtaxpayersapproveaone-centincreaseinsalestaxthisNovember,thedowntownTampastationwillconnecttotheUniversityofSouthFloridavialightrailassoonas2015or2016.
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, January 28, 2010
Tampa Bay Water desal plant hits milestone gets financial boost• Afterpassingtwofinalperformancetests,
TampaBayWaterwillreceive$31.25millionfortheTampaBaySeawaterDesalinationfacility.
• Thedesalinationplantaddsadrought-proofcomponenttotheregion’sexistingwatersupplysystem.Theplantsuccessfullyproduced25milliongallonsofwatereachdayforfourmonths,providingabout10%oftheregion’sdrinkingwatersupply.
• AdditionalfundingfortheplantwillcomefromtheSouthwestFloridaWaterManagementDistrict.
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, February 26, 2010
86 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
TA m PA – s T . P E T E r s B U r g – C l E A r wAT E r
Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSAIndustry Location Quotients
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
Total Government
Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Financial Activities
Information
Transportation, Warehousing, and Util iti
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Trade, Transportation, and Util ities
Nondurable Goods
Durable Goods
Manufacturing
Construction
Natural Resources and Mining
Private Service Providing
Service Producing
Goods Producing
Total Private
Total Nonagricultural Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
1300.0
1250.0
1200.0
1150.0
1100.0
1050.0
Tampa Payroll Employment(Thousands)
Tampa Payroll Employment
13121110090807060504030201009998
100000.0
95000.0
90000.0
85000.0
80000.0
75000.0
70000.0
65000.0
Tampa Real Gross Metro Product(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%
-2.0%-4.0%
Tampa Real Personal Income(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%
Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RateTampa Unemployment Rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 87
TA m P A – s T . P E T E r s B U r g – C l E A r w AT E r
Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL* March 2010 Forecast
2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 100.1 102.6 103.8 105.1 106.2 107.4 108.4 109.6 111.1 112.8 114.5 116.2 117.9 119.7 121.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 3.4 4.3 5.7 6.1 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.6 5 5.7 6 6.1 6.2 6.3 Wages and Salaries 51.3 51.7 52.2 52.7 53.1 53.7 54.2 54.8 55.7 56.5 57.3 58.2 59.2 60.3 61.4 Nonwage Income 48.8 50.9 51.6 52.4 53 53.7 54.2 54.7 55.4 56.3 57.1 57.9 58.6 59.4 60.3Real Personal Income (00$) 81.5 83.2 84.2 84.9 85.5 86.1 86.6 87.2 88.1 89 90.1 91 92 93.1 94.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6 1.3 2.6 4.2 4.9 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.4 4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7Per Capita Income (Ths) 36.1 37.1 37.6 38.1 38.5 38.9 39.2 39.5 40 40.5 41 41.5 41.9 42.4 43Real Per Capita Income (00$) 29.4 30.1 30.5 30.8 31 31.2 31.3 31.5 31.7 32 32.2 32.5 32.7 33 33.3Average Annual Wage (Ths) 44 44.4 44.8 45.2 45.5 45.8 46 46.2 46.5 46.8 47 47.3 47.6 48 48.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 1154.5 1151.5 1152.9 1153 1155.5 1160.6 1165.9 1174.6 1186.5 1197.5 1208.5 1220.6 1233.7 1246.5 1259 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -3.3 -2 -1 0.1 0.8 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.6 3.9 4 4.1 4.2Manufacturing 62.4 62.1 62 62.1 62.6 63.3 64.2 65.2 66.1 67 67.6 68.4 69.1 69.8 70.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.4 -8.3 -5.5 -3.2 0.2 1.9 3.5 5 5.6 5.9 5.3 5 4.5 4.2 4Nonmanufacturing 1092 1089.5 1090.9 1090.9 1093 1097.3 1101.7 1109.5 1120.4 1130.5 1140.9 1152.2 1164.7 1176.7 1188.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1 -3 -1.8 -0.9 0.1 0.7 1 1.7 2.5 3 3.6 3.8 4 4.1 4.2 Construction & Mining 61.3 59.6 58.4 57.2 57.2 57.6 58.1 59 60.1 61.2 62.5 63.9 65.3 67 68.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -14.1 -10.4 -8.5 -9.4 -6.8 -3.5 -0.4 3.2 5.1 6.4 7.6 8.2 8.7 9.4 10 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 208 207.1 206.5 206.4 206.4 206.1 206.7 208.1 209.9 211.6 213.3 214.7 216.1 217.4 218.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4 -5.3 -4.6 -2.7 -0.8 -0.5 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.6 3.2 3.1 3 2.7 2.6 Wholesale Trade 45.8 45.7 45.8 45.5 45.5 45.6 46.1 46.9 47.4 47.8 48.3 48.7 49.2 49.7 50 Retail Trade 136.4 136.2 135.7 136 135.9 135.2 134.8 135.1 136.1 136.9 137.8 138.5 139.2 139.7 140.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 25.8 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.7 24.9 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.5 Information 27.8 27.8 26.8 27 27.3 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.6 -5.4 -6.2 -3 -2 -0.4 4.1 3.5 2.3 2.3 1.7 2 2.4 1.8 1.9 Financial Activities 94.6 94 93.7 93.5 92.7 92.3 92.2 92.6 93.1 93.6 94.2 94.8 95.3 95.5 95.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5 -2.9 -3 -1.9 -2 -1.7 -1.6 -0.9 0.4 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2 1.6 Prof & Business Services 210.9 212.7 215.1 217.3 221.3 226.1 228.5 232.4 239 244 248.5 253.9 260.2 266.8 272.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.5 -1.4 0.8 3 4.9 6.3 6.2 7 8 7.9 8.7 9.2 8.9 9.3 9.8 Educ & Health Services 173.9 173.6 173.8 174.2 174.4 174.2 175.2 176.9 178 179 179.9 180.9 181.7 182.2 183 Pct Chg Year Ago 2 1 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 Leisure & Hospitality 116.7 116.3 116.2 116.8 116.6 116.4 116.5 116.1 115.7 116 116.7 117.5 118.4 119.2 119.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.4 -5 -3.9 -2.6 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 0.2 1.2 2.3 2.8 2.8 Other Services 49.2 49.3 49.3 49.6 49.7 49.9 49.9 50 50.1 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.4 50.4 50.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 1.7 -0.2 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 Federal Government 21.7 21.9 24.6 23.1 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.7 13.4 5.8 1.9 -0.3 -11.7 -6.3 -2.5 -1.7 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 State & Local Government 127.8 127.1 126.4 125.9 125.4 125.2 124.8 124.8 124.8 125 125.7 126.4 127.2 128 128.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3 -3.7 -2.1 -2.3 -1.9 -1.5 -1.2 -0.9 -0.4 -0.1 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.5
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 86813.8 87271.5 87507.4 87947.2 88440.6 89025.5 89554.9 90417.4 91526 92611 93693.1 94810.7 95998.5 96910.6 97866.2Population (Ths) 2772.7 2761.5 2757.9 2757.9 2760.9 2763.7 2766.5 2771 2777.8 2785.1 2793.2 2801.9 2811.2 2821.2 2831.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4Labor Force (Ths) 1312.7 1306.9 1305.4 1304.9 1305.2 1305.7 1305.8 1307.2 1310 1314 1318.1 1322 1326.9 1332.4 1338.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -1.9 -1.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5Unemployment Rate (%) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.5 12.1 11.7 11.3 10.8 10.4 9.9 9.4 9 8.6 8.3Total Housing Starts 7592 8184 8275 9276 11507 13262 14801 15911 16712 17576 18729 20048 20990 21643 22426 Single-Family 4827 3773 4220 5539 7475 9356 11139 12748 13979 14840 15925 16856 17321 17653 18096 Multifamily 2765 4410 4055 3738 4032 3906 3663 3163 2733 2736 2804 3192 3669 3990 4330
*Quarterly at an annual rate
88 Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010
TA m PA – s T . P E T E r s B U r g – C l E A r wAT E r
Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL March 2010 Forecast
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Personal Income (Billions $)Total Personal Income 76 78.9 84.9 91.3 98.4 101.3 102.1 99.5 104.4 109.1 115.3 122.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 3.8 7.6 7.5 7.8 3 0.8 -2.5 4.9 4.5 5.7 6.3 Wages and Salaries 42 42.9 45.9 49 52.2 54 53.5 51.3 52.4 54.6 57.8 61.9 Nonwage Income 34 36 39 42.3 46.1 47.4 48.6 48.3 52 54.5 57.5 60.7Real Personal Income (00$) 73.6 74.9 78.5 81.9 85.9 86.2 84.1 81.8 84.4 87 90.5 94.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 1.8 4.9 4.3 4.9 0.3 -2.5 -2.7 3.2 3 4.1 4.7Per Capita Income (Ths.) 30.5 31.1 32.7 34.4 36.4 37.1 37.1 36 37.8 39.4 41.2 43.2Real Per Capita Income (00$) 29.5 29.5 30.3 30.9 31.8 31.6 30.6 29.6 30.6 31.4 32.4 33.4Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 36.2 36.8 37.8 39 40.9 42.4 43.2 43.3 45 46.1 47.1 48.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 1.7 2.8 3.2 4.9 3.6 1.9 0.2 3.9 2.6 2.2 2.9
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Employment 1150.2 1153.7 1203.1 1244.7 1264.4 1260.2 1225.4 1171.9 1153.2 1171.9 1215.1 1264.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 0.3 4.3 3.5 1.6 -0.3 -2.8 -4.4 -1.6 1.6 3.7 4.1Manufacturing 80 76 76.6 77.3 78.2 75.6 71.5 65 62.2 64.7 68 70.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.1 -5 0.8 0.9 1.2 -3.4 -5.4 -9.2 -4.3 4 5.2 3.6Nonmanufacturing 1070.2 1077.7 1126.5 1167.4 1186.2 1184.6 1153.9 1106.9 1091.1 1107.2 1147.1 1194 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 0.7 4.5 3.6 1.6 -0.1 -2.6 -4.1 -1.4 1.5 3.6 4.1 Construction & Mining 69.6 72 79.1 88.3 93.9 87.4 76.1 63.7 58.1 58.7 63.2 69.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 3.5 9.9 11.6 6.3 -7 -12.8 -16.4 -8.8 1 7.7 10 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 228 221.5 226.5 233.9 236.1 234.6 227.4 213.8 206.6 207.7 213.9 219.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 -2.8 2.2 3.2 1 -0.7 -3 -6 -3.4 0.5 3 2.5 Wholesale Trade 53.3 50.4 50.9 52.8 54 54.3 53.1 47.6 45.6 46.5 48.5 50.2 Retail Trade 141.9 139.7 143.3 149 151 150.8 146.4 140.2 135.9 135.3 138.1 140.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 32.8 31.4 32.3 32.1 31.1 29.4 28 26 24.8 25.4 26.7 27.6 Information 35.8 34.6 32.9 32.7 32.6 32.6 30.9 28.4 27.2 27.8 28.4 29 Pct Chg Year Ago -8 -3.5 -4.8 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -5.3 -8.1 -4.2 2.3 2.1 2 Financial Activities 92.5 93.9 95.5 99.4 102.7 101.8 97.7 95.8 93.5 92.6 94.5 95.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 1.5 1.7 4.1 3.2 -0.9 -4 -2 -2.5 -1 2.1 1.5 Prof & Business Services 190.9 197.9 224.2 237.2 240.3 237 227.7 212.7 216.6 231.5 251.6 275.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 3.6 13.3 5.8 1.3 -1.4 -3.9 -6.6 1.8 6.9 8.7 9.5 Educ & Health Services 143 147.6 152.3 154.7 158.4 165.6 170.1 172.2 174 176.1 180.4 183.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2 3.2 3.2 1.6 2.4 4.5 2.7 1.2 1 1.2 2.4 1.7 Leisure & Hospitality 115.7 116.1 119.7 123.7 125.9 126.2 122.6 120 116.5 116.2 117.1 120.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1 0.4 3.1 3.3 1.8 0.2 -2.8 -2.1 -2.9 -0.3 0.8 2.6 Other Services 48 47.9 49.2 49.4 47.1 47.8 48.5 49.1 49.5 50 50.2 50.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 -0.2 2.7 0.5 -4.6 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.7 Federal Government 19 19.5 19.9 20.8 21 21.1 21.7 21.8 22.9 21.7 21.5 21.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 2.8 2.2 4.3 1.2 0.5 3 0.1 5.5 -5.4 -1.2 -0.5 State & Local Government 127.7 126.6 127.2 127.2 128.1 130.6 131 129.4 126.2 124.9 126.1 129.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 -0.8 0.4 0 0.7 2 0.3 -1.2 -2.5 -1 1 2.5
Other Economic IndicatorsGross Metro Product (00$ Mil) 80046 83089 86840 91655 95141 94924 92959 88853 87792 90131 94278 98335Population (Ths) 2492.4 2536.8 2594.3 2654.2 2699.9 2729 2749.7 2766.3 2759.5 2769.7 2797.9 2837.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.6 -0.2 0.4 1 1.4Labor Force (Ths) 1223 1226.3 1254.9 1258 1281.9 1303.6 1324.1 1319.9 1305.6 1307.2 1320.3 1341.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1 0.3 2.3 0.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 -0.3 -1.1 0.1 1 1.6Unemployment Rate (%) 5.6 5.3 4.5 3.9 3.4 4.2 6.5 11.2 12.6 11.5 9.7 8.1Total Housing Starts 23639 27283 27279 32762 22881 11564 8932 6350 9311 15171 19336 22603 Single-Family 18032 20013 22068 27605 19469 8527 5347 4194 5252 11805 16236 18254 Multifamily 5608 7270 5211 5158 3412 3037 3585 2156 4059 3366 3100 4349
I n d U s T r y l o C AT I o n Q U o T I E n T
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 89
E x P l A n AT I o n A n d I n T E r P r E TAT I o n
Thistechniquecomparesthelocaleconomytoareferenceeconomy;inthiscase,thelocaleconomyisthechosenMSA,andthereferenceeconomyisthestateofFlorida.AnIndustryLocationQuotient(LQ )iscalculatedtodetermineifthelocaleconomyhasagreatershareofeachindustry’semploymentthanthereferenceeconomy.TheLQhelpstoidentifyspecializationsthatexistinthelocaleconomy.
Thereareonlythreepossibleoutcomes:1.AnLQgreaterthanone2.AnLQequaltooneand3.AnLQlessthanone.AnLQthatisgreaterthanonemeansthattheshareoflocalemploymentinthatparticularindustryisgreaterthanthereferenceeconomyemploymentshareinthatsameindustry.Thisimpliesthatsomeofthegoodsorservicesproducedbythatindustryareexportedforconsumptionelsewhere.AnLQofonemeansthatlocaldemandismetbythelocalindustry.Nogoods/servicesareimportedorexportedfromthelocalareainthatindustry.Theshareoflocalemploymentinthatindustryisequaltotheshareforthatindustryinthereferenceeconomy.AnLQlessthanoneimpliesthattheindustryisnotmeetinglocaldemandforthatgoodorservice,andinordertomeetdemand,thatareamustimportthatgoodorservice.Thisalsomeansthattheshareoflocalemploymentinthatindustryislessthantheshareofemploymentinthatindustryforthereferenceeconomy.
C A l C U l AT I o n
Anindustrylocationquotientisacalculatedratiooftworatios.
LQ=((LocalemploymentinindustryAinyearT/TotallocalemploymentinyearT)/ (ReferenceeconomyemploymentinindustryAinyearT)/(Totalreference employmentinyearT))
Forexample:
OrlandoMSAemploymentforInformationis27,400TotalOrlandoMSAnonagriculturalemploymentis1,104,100FloridaemploymentforInformationis169,800TotalFloridanonagriculturalemploymentis8,247,000
LQ=((27,400/1,104,100)/(169,800/8,247,000))=1.2039
Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006
The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida.
Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a full-service brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being respon-sive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation.
Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advan-tages over the competition:
Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.
Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-
members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfort-able and prosperous relationships with our clients.
Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our cli-ent is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client.
Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal port-folio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.
AppeciationIn
Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835
407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com
s E A n M . s n A I T h , P h . D .
We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:
Director, Institute
for Economic
Competitiveness.
Ph.D., Pennsylvania
state University 1996;
M.A., Pennsylvania state
University 1994; B.s.,
Allegheny College 1989.
Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting.
As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems. Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific.
Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.”
Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey.
In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University.
Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets.
FoR MoRE INFoRMATIoNSean Snaith, DirectorInstitute for Economic CompetitivenessCollege of Business AdministrationUniversity of Central FloridaP.o. Box 161400orlando, FL 32816
PH: 407.823.1451FAX: 407.823.1454E-MAIL: [email protected] www.iec.ucf.edu
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