FLOODS. THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
May 10, 2015
FLOODS. THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR
GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
FRAMEWORK 1A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE
ON GLOBAL DISASTERS
AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
1. SCOPEFROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS
TO A DISASTER
TO
DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF
“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.
THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
• PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting)
• COMMUNITIES• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
PEOPLE = INNOVATION PEOPLE = INNOVATION
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
NORTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
CARIBBEAN BASIN
CARIBBEAN BASIN
SUB-SAHARAAFRICA
SUB-SAHARAAFRICA
MEDITER-RANEAN
MEDITER-RANEAN
ISLAND NATIONS ISLAND NATIONS
ASIA ASIA
SOUTHAMERICASOUTH
AMERICA
EUROPEEUROPE
INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER,
AND SOME WON’T
THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM
• 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD)
LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE
FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
• IGNORANCE• APATHY• DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
• GOVERNMENT• DWELLINGS• SCHOOLS• HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES• BUSINESSES• INFRA-
STRUCTURE• ETC
EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE
INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF-RESILIENCE
THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM
• FLOODS• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.
RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES
RECURRING FLOODS
RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES
RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
CURRENT KNOWLEDGE
IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,
STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS
HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES
FRAMEWORK 2A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION
OF KNOWLEDGE FORTHE END GAME OF
DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY
POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
Anticipatory Preparedness
Adoption and Implementation of a Modern Engineering Building Codes & Standards
Timely Early Warning and Evacuation
Timely Emergency Response (including Emergency Medical Services)
Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
YOUR COMMUNITY
YOUR COMMUNITYDATA BASES
AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• FLOODS • SEVERE WIND
STORMS• EARTHQUAKES …
ETC
A DISASTER
CAUSES
FAILURES IN POLICIES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
COUNTER MEASURES
• BEST POLICIES• BEST PRACTICES
DISASTER RESILIENCE
THE END GAME CHALLENGEBEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS,
AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE
PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL
CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY
AND STRATEGIC PLANNING
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL
CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY
AND STRATEGIC PLANNING
THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS ---
a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.
FLOODS
INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS
USE GLOBAL FLOOD DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR
PREPARING FROM “A” (Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)
INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS
USE GLOBAL FLOOD DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR
PREPARING FROM “A” (Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIESEMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
• REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES • MAPS: 100-YEAR
AND 500-YEAR FLOODS
• FLOOD DISASTER SCENARIOS
• DRONE PLANES• HAZMAT
MANAGEMENT
• DATABASES • MAPS: 100-YEAR
AND 500-YEAR FLOODS
• FLOOD DISASTER SCENARIOS
• DRONE PLANES• HAZMAT
MANAGEMENT
FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCETRATEGIES
FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCETRATEGIES
RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR FLOODS
RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR FLOODS
• PURPOSE• PREVENTION
• PROTECTION
• URBAN PLANNING
• PURPOSE• PREVENTION
• PROTECTION
• URBAN PLANNING
• TECHNIQUE• DRAINAGE BASIN
MANAGEMENT• FLOOD CONTROL
(DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS)
• HAZARD MAPS (RISK ZONES)
• TECHNIQUE• DRAINAGE BASIN
MANAGEMENT• FLOOD CONTROL
(DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS)
• HAZARD MAPS (RISK ZONES)
DRAINAGE BASINMANAGEMENT
DRAINAGE BASINMANAGEMENT
• WETLANDS AND , UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS REDUCE THE VOLUME OF WATER REACHING DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS
• WETLANDS AND , UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS REDUCE THE VOLUME OF WATER REACHING DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS
PROTECTION
USE MODERN ENGINEERING DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION
TECHNOLOGIES TO PROTECT THE PEOPLE AND IMPORTANT
INFRASTRUCTURE AND TO FIX PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES IN THE
COMMUNITY
PROTECTION
USE MODERN ENGINEERING DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION
TECHNOLOGIES TO PROTECT THE PEOPLE AND IMPORTANT
INFRASTRUCTURE AND TO FIX PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES IN THE
COMMUNITY
DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS
• BUILDING AND MAINTAINING DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS IN CONCERT WITH WETLANDS AND RESERVOIRS CAN CONTROL SERVERITY OF FLOODING .
• BUILDING AND MAINTAINING DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS IN CONCERT WITH WETLANDS AND RESERVOIRS CAN CONTROL SERVERITY OF FLOODING .
EXAMPLE: THE LEVEE SYSTEM IN QUINCY, IL: FLOOD CONTROL
EXAMPLE: THE LEVEE SYSTEM IN QUINCY, IL: FLOOD CONTROL
• THE 154-MILE-LONG LEVEE SYSTEM IS DESIGNED TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD AND SEVERITY OF FLOODS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
• THE 154-MILE-LONG LEVEE SYSTEM IS DESIGNED TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD AND SEVERITY OF FLOODS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
EXAMPLE: THREE GORGES DAM, CHINA: FLOOD CONTROL
EXAMPLE: THREE GORGES DAM, CHINA: FLOOD CONTROL
• THE GREATEST ENGINEERING FEAT IN CHINA SINCE THE GREAT WALL IS DESIGNED TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD AND SEVERITY OF FLOODS ON THE YANGTZE RIVER.
• THE GREATEST ENGINEERING FEAT IN CHINA SINCE THE GREAT WALL IS DESIGNED TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD AND SEVERITY OF FLOODS ON THE YANGTZE RIVER.
THREE GORGES DAM: 2309 M LONG, 190 M HIGH, 15 M THICK
YANGTZE RIVER
FLOODING: YANGTZE RIVER
• Historical records indicate that in 2,100 years, between the early Han Dynasty and late Qing Dynasty, the Yangzte flooded 214 times, an average of once every 10 years.
YANGTZE RIVER AND THREE GORGES DAM
THREE GORGES DAM
• The Three Gorges Dam is located in Central China's Hubei Province, 600 miles southwest of Beijing.
• It replaced Brazil's Itaipu Dam as the world's largest hydroelectric and flood-control installation.
• After 13 years of work and 35 million cubic yards of concrete, the dam reached its full height of 190 m (606 ft) and width of 2,309 m (7,575 ft) across the Yangtze River.
FLOOD CONTROL ON THE THAME RIVER RIVER: LONDON, ENGLAND
URBAN PLANNING URBAN PLANNING
• LAND USE REGULATIONS BASED ON FLOOD HAZARD MAPS CAN PREVENT UNWISE CON-STRUCTION IN RIVER FLOODPLAINS AND IN COASTAL AREAS.
• LAND USE REGULATIONS BASED ON FLOOD HAZARD MAPS CAN PREVENT UNWISE CON-STRUCTION IN RIVER FLOODPLAINS AND IN COASTAL AREAS.
STRATEGIES FOR FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PURPOSE• SITE MODIFICATION• ALERT/WARNING• MONITORING•
• PURPOSE• SITE MODIFICATION• ALERT/WARNING• MONITORING•
• TECHNIQUE• EMBANKMENTS;
SANDBAGS• EVACUATION• INTERNATIONAL
SPACE STATION; WEATHER RADAR
• TECHNIQUE• EMBANKMENTS;
SANDBAGS• EVACUATION• INTERNATIONAL
SPACE STATION; WEATHER RADAR
STRATEGIES FOR FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PURPOSE• RISK ZONES • PREPAREDNESS
• PURPOSE• RISK ZONES • PREPAREDNESS
• TECHNIQUE• STREAM GAGUES;
DRONE PLANES• 100-500 YEAR
FLOOD MAPS, DISASTER SCENARIOS
• TECHNIQUE• STREAM GAGUES;
DRONE PLANES• 100-500 YEAR
FLOOD MAPS, DISASTER SCENARIOS
FORECASTS, ALERTS, AND WARNINGS; EVACUATION
FORECASTS, ALERTS, AND WARNINGS; EVACUATION
• WORKS FOR RIVERINE FLOODS, BUT NOT FOR FLASH FLOODS.
• WORKS FOR RIVERINE FLOODS, BUT NOT FOR FLASH FLOODS.
SITE MODIFICATION IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN
SITE MODIFICATION IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN
• EMPLACING 2.5 MILLION SAND BAGS REDUCED LOSSES IN THE GREAT 1992 FLOOD
• EMPLACING 2.5 MILLION SAND BAGS REDUCED LOSSES IN THE GREAT 1992 FLOOD
SAND BAGS: SITE MODIFICATION IN THE FLOOD OF JUNE 12, 2008 IN IOWA
1 MILLION SANDBAGS: SITE MODIF-ICATION IN FARGO, ND, MARCH 2009
DRONE PLANES: MONITORING LEVEES IN FARGO, ND AREA, MARCH 2009
FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES
FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES
• PURPOSE• CLEAR OUT THE
FLOODPLAIN• FACILITATE
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION
• PURPOSE• CLEAR OUT THE
FLOODPLAIN• FACILITATE
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION
• TECHNIQUE• FEDERAL BUYOUT
PROGRAM• FEDERAL FLOOD
INSURANCE PROGRAM
• TECHNIQUE• FEDERAL BUYOUT
PROGRAM• FEDERAL FLOOD
INSURANCE PROGRAM
FLOOD INSURANCE: SPEEDING RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION
FLOOD INSURANCE: SPEEDING RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION
• FLOOD INSURANCE IS OFFERED FOR PURCHASE BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES
• FLOOD INSURANCE IS OFFERED FOR PURCHASE BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES
BUYOUTS: CLEARING THE FLOODPLAIN
BUYOUTS: CLEARING THE FLOODPLAIN
• IN THE USA, BUYOUTS OF HOMES IN THE FLOODPLAIN (FOLLOWED BY DEMOLATION OR RELOCATION) REDUCED RISK FROM FLOODING
• IN THE USA, BUYOUTS OF HOMES IN THE FLOODPLAIN (FOLLOWED BY DEMOLATION OR RELOCATION) REDUCED RISK FROM FLOODING