Flood Map Modernization and FEMA Levee Policy February 2008 Doug Bellomo Director, Risk Analysis Division Mitigation Directorate, FEMA
Dec 13, 2015
Flood Map Modernization and FEMA Levee Policy
February 2008
Doug BellomoDirector, Risk Analysis DivisionMitigation Directorate, FEMA
Flood Map ModernizationOverviewOverview
National Flood Insurance Program Background Map Modernization Status Levees Flood Risk – What it is and isn’t
Flood Map ModernizationOverviewOverview
National Flood Insurance Program Background Map Modernization Status Levees Flood Risk – What it is and isn’t
Flood Map Modernization
National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) BackgroundNational Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Background
Flood Insurance – the federal government makes it available (more affordable than private market)
Floodplain Management – program participant (local government) agrees to adopt building standards aimed at reducing future risk
Flood Maps – Made collaboratively with state and local governments
Flood Map ModernizationNFIP StatusNFIP Status
Over 20,000 communities participate in the program
Over 5 million flood insurance policies in force Over $1 trillion in insurance coverage
(exposure)
Flood Map ModernizationOverviewOverview
National Flood Insurance Program Background Map Modernization Status Levees Flood Risk – What it is and isn’t
Flood Map ModernizationMap Modernization StatusMap Modernization Status
Five year roughly $1B effort•Began in FY04•Estimated completion FY10
FY08 Budget – Appropriated $220M Annual planning process results in publication
of Multi-Year Flood Hazard Identification Plan (MHIP)
• Currently working on FY08 MHIP – planned release Spring 2008
Flood Map Modernization
Performance Metrics – Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)Performance Metrics – Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual
Population w/ digital GIS flood data available online
20% 17% 50% 39% 50% 48% 60% 60%
Population with effective maps that meet quality standards
10% 8% 20% 16% 25% 23% 35% 32%
Using dollars provided through this FY, our goal remains as covering 92% of the nations population
with a modernized flood map by 2010
Flood Map ModernizationOverviewOverview
National Flood Insurance Program Background Map Modernization Status Levees Flood Risk – What it is and isn’t
Flood Map ModernizationMisconceptionsMisconceptions
FEMA Certifies Levees – we don’t levee owners or other parties seeking recognition do
Insurance not available in floodplains, areas protected by levees, or behind de-accredited levees – it is as long as the local government participates its available
All levees provide significant protection – they don’t they provide varying levels of protection which can change through time
FEMA’s regulations for how levees are accredited have changed recently – they’ve been on the books since the mid 1980’s
FEMA will only accredit Federal Levees – private levees can also be certified and ultimately accredited
Flood Map Modernization
What is FEMA doing with respect to levees?What is FEMA doing with respect to levees?
Making sure that levees shown as providing protection do in fact provide the stated level of protection – truth in labeling
Update flood hazard data to reflect existing conditions – not proposed conditions
Work with states, locals, and other federal agencies to ensure the flood risk is properly communicated
Help people make sound decisions based on the facts
Flood Map Modernization
LeveesInterim Guidance for Studies Including LeveesLeveesInterim Guidance for Studies Including Levees
Early in Map Mod FEMA understood the challenge of identifying flood hazards in and around levees
Pre-Katrina (Aug 2005) we issued Procedure Memo 34 emphasizing importance of following existing regulations while updating flood maps
• Re-iterated what regulations say - levees cannot be assumed to provide 1% annual chance protection
Flood Map Modernization
LeveesGuidelines for Identifying Provisionally Accredited Levees (PAL)
LeveesGuidelines for Identifying Provisionally Accredited Levees (PAL)
Adjusted mapping procedures further to balance owner need for time and FEMA responsibility to identify flood hazards in a timely way• Procedure Memo 43 introduces Provisionally Accredited Levees Only levees currently accredited are eligible Responsible parties must state they believe levee meets
regulatory requirements FEMA provides 2 year period to compile required documentation Levee is “Provisionally Accredited” Policy was developed in close coordination with the USACE
Flood Map Modernization
LeveesFEMA’s Accreditation RegulationsLeveesFEMA’s Accreditation Regulations
In place since 1986 44 Code of Federal Regulations Section 65.10 Compliance with Section 65.10 resides with levee
owner or other party seeking recognition that a levee provides protection against the base flood
Requirements include aspects of levee• Design• Operation• Maintenance
Flood Map ModernizationSo, what does this mean?So, what does this mean?
FEMA will continue to:• Ask owners or other parties seeking recognition to provide
required documentation before showing a levee as providing protection
• Make accommodations for provisional accreditation of levees when and where appropriate
• Continue to coordinate closely with the USACE, other federal agencies, and our stakeholders
• Listen, learn, and adjust within the bounds of the law and our mission
Flood Map ModernizationWhat else does it mean?What else does it mean?
We all have some responsibility• States• Locals• Levee boards/owners• Federal government• Home/Business owners
With that responsibility comes an obligation to at a minimum inform, but better - act
Ignoring the problem or delaying action will not make it go away – it makes it worse
Flood Map ModernizationOverviewOverview
National Flood Insurance Program Background Map Modernization Status Levees Flood Risk – What it is and isn’t
Flood Map Modernization
Flood “Probability” is NOT Flood “Risk”Flood “Probability” is NOT Flood “Risk”
Flood risk and flood probability are erroneously used interchangeably
This, coupled with a need for legal clarity, has generally led to a zero/one mentality of flood risk
• High risk (in the floodplain) OR• No risk (outside the floodplain)
Its more complicated than that• Risk = probability x consequences• Risks can be high in situations where relatively low probabilities
are offset by high consequences AND• Risk can be low where high probabilities are offset by low
consequences
Flood Map ModernizationSome ExamplesSome Examples
RISK0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 102 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 203 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 304 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 405 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 506 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 607 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 708 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 809 9 18 27 36 45 54 63 72 81 9010 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
12 Someone insured with higher chance of flooding has same risk as someone without insurance and lower probability
Probability increases while risk decreases through consequences management40 (New map showing increased probability leads to purchase of insurance - reduces individual risk)
Probability drops while risk goes up because consequences are not managed(Levee "eliminates" floodplain, leads to dropped insurance coverage - increases individual risk)
Probability (Low to High)
Con
sequ
ence
s (L
ow to
Hig
h)
Flood Map ModernizationCommunicating The EquationCommunicating The Equation
Probabilities – Fear and Uncertainty• Largely decided by Mother Nature and understood by few• Plagued with assumptions and fraught with uncertainty – “Past
performance no indication of future value”• Difficult to communicate risk through probabilities effectively
Consequences – Hope and Clarity• Largely within an individuals control
Insurance is available Evacuation plans can be developed and exercised
In communicating risk we should• Seek to understand the probabilities and unknowns• Accept the uncertainties and fact that science cannot predict the future• Resist toiling over the probabilities - they are a trap, fodder for inaction• Focus on controlling risk through action aimed at things within our
control