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Flight or Plight Ensuring weather, congestion, and bad luck won’t ruin your vacation.
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Page 1: Flight or Plight

Flight or PlightEnsuring weather, congestion, and bad luck won’t ruin your

vacation.

Page 2: Flight or Plight

% D

elay

ed

Month

Flights Leaving JFK2011-201370%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

Thanksgiving

ChristmasJa

n

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

Nov

Page 3: Flight or Plight

Historical FlightDelays (CSV)

HistoricalWeather

GradientBoostingMachineClassifier

Time of DayDay of Week

MonthDay of Year

Days to HolidayAirline

Average/Max WindRain AmountSnow Amount

Page 4: Flight or Plight

Real TimeWeather Forecast

Will My FlightBe Delayed?

By How Long?

Will I makemy connection?

Minimum Connection

Times

GradientBoostingMachineClassifier

Page 5: Flight or Plight

Receiver - Operating Characteristic

With weather

Without weather

Chance

Page 6: Flight or Plight

About Me: Ryan Vilim

Page 7: Flight or Plight

Thank You

Page 8: Flight or Plight
Page 9: Flight or Plight

Worst Large Airports (Arrivals)

Of the 20 busiest airports, which have the most delays?

Airport DelaysNewark (EWR) 27%San Francisco (SFO) 27%New York (LGA) 23%Chicago (ORD) 22%New York (JFK) 22%Boston (BOS) 21%Philidelphia (PHL) 21%Orlando (MCO) 19%Los Angeles (LAX) 19%Chicago (MDW) 19%

Page 10: Flight or Plight

0"

0.2"

0.4"

0.6"

0.8"

1"

1.2"

Prcp_Dest"

Prcp_Origin"

ArrMidnightHours"

Prcp_Dest_prev"

DepMidnightHours"

WSf2_Dest"

AWnd_Dest"

WSf2_Origin"

AWnd_Origin"

Month"

AWnd_Origin_prev"

Snow_Origin"

AWnd_Dest_prev"

WDf2_Dest"

WDf2_Origin"

Snow_Dest"

DaysToHoliday"

WSf2_Origin_prev"

WSf2_Dest_prev"

Snow_Dest_prev"

WDf2_Dest_prev"

WDf2_Origin_prev"

Prcp_Origin_prev"

Airline"

Day"of"Week"

Snow_Origin_prev"

DayOfMonth"

Feature Importances JFK-ORD (2010-2014)

Page 11: Flight or Plight
Page 12: Flight or Plight
Page 13: Flight or Plight