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Highlights This report describes some of the key economic indicators for Cambodia and its main trading partners. It compares figures for the current months of 2009 with those months in 2008.
In the second quarter, fixed asset investment approvals for the garment sector rose from USD17 m in the previous quarter to USD35 m. The approvals, however, decreased by 27 percent compared with the same quarter in 2008.
In August, total foreign visitor arrivals to Cambodia increased by 5.0 percent compared with the previous month. Business arrivals rose by 1.3 percent and holiday arrivals by 5.0 percent, while other arrivals doubled.
In June, approvals for Phnom Penh villa and house construction declined slightly from the previous month, falling to USD0.5 m. An opposite trend was evident in approvals for flat construction, which jumped from USD2.5 m to USD6.2 m. Other construction spiked from USD3.8 m to USD17m.
In July, liquidity grew by 1.8 percent from the previous month. Net foreign assets rose by 3.9 percent, while private sector credit fell 0.2 percent. Government deposits were down by 2.6 percent, while other liabilities rose by 5.0 percent. During the same month, the 12-month interest rate on riel loans was 1.75 percent higher than in the previous month, while the rate on dollar loans was 0.8 percent lower than in the preceding month. The interest rate on riel loans was 23 percent, and on dollar loans 16 percent
The value of the riel was down against the US dollar in September compared with the preceding month. It traded at KHR4161.3/USD. The riel was at KHR123.3 per Thai baht and at KHR23.4 per 100 Vietnamese dong.
Cambodia’s total exports jumped from USD29 m in June to USD308 m in July. The surge was due mainly to a sudden increase of garments, from USD12 m to USD288 m. Rubber exports rose 93 percent to USD7.2 m, and fish 4.0 percent to USD0.4 m. Cigarette imports dropped by 31 percent and steel by 24 percent, while cement imports rose by 73 percent.
In August, the year-on-year overall consumer price inflation was -2.9 percent, a smaller decline than the -3.9 percent in the previous month. Smaller price declines were evident in almost all components of the overall figure, namely food and non-alcoholic beverages (-2.3 percent), transportation (-13 percent), communications (-7.7
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 3
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percent), recreation and culture (-0.5 percent). Clothing and footwear rose 5.7 percent, household furnishings and operations 6.6 percent, health care 8.1 percent and education services 14 percent.
In September, prices of diesel and gasoline both increased 0.7 percent from the previous month. The rice price declined in Battambang (6.0 percent) and Kompong Speu (24 percent). However, it rose in Kampot (17 percent), while remaining stable in Kompong Cham, Siem Reap and Svay Rieng. The fish price increased in Battambang (5.0 percent), Kompong Speu (14 percent) and Kompong Cham (15 percent). During the same period, pork’s price remained unchanged in Battambang, Kompong Speu, Kompong Cham, Siem Reap and Svay Rieng, but rose in Kampot by 5.0 percent.
The price of rice exported from Thailand decreased by 21 percent from the previous month, falling to USD404/tonne in August. The reverse trend was seen in the prices of rubber and cashew nuts. Rubber climbed by 14 percent and cashew nuts by 7.5 percent. In the Vietnamese market, rice was down 8.0 percent, selling at USD411/tonne. The prices of cashew nuts and rubber both rose 2.0 percent.
In August, year-on-year consumer price inflation in the USA (-1.5 percent) and euro zone (-0.2 percent) was not as low as in the previous month, while Japan was unchanged at -2.2 percent. The overall consumer price trend was upward in China (-1.2 percent), South Korea (2.0 percent), Singapore (-0.3 percent) and Thailand (-1.0 percent) and stable in Hong Kong (1.3 percent) and Malaysia (-2.4 percent).
In September against the US dollar, the Korean won appreciated by 2.0 percent, the Hong Kong dollar by 3.4 percent and the Japanese yen by 3.6 percent, compared with previous month. The euro appreciated by 2.0 percent, the Singapore dollar by 1.3 percent and the Thai baht by 0.5 percent.
In July, the price of soybeans shrank by 1.2 percent from the previous month, to USD419.9/tonne. During the same month, maize declined by 1.7 percent to USD137.7/tonne and palm oil by 12 percent to USD580.5/tonne. In September, the international spot price of crude oil decreased by 5.4 percent compared with the previous month, to US cents 68/barrel, diesel by 7.5 percent to US cents 45.8/ ℓ and gasoline by 8.0 percent to USD45.8/ ℓ.
Including expansion projects. Source: Council for the Development of Cambodia
Foreign Visitor Arrivals May 2008–August 2009
154
146138
111113
735
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jun
08
Aug
08
Oct
08
Dec
08
Feb
09
Apr
09
Jun
09
Aug
09
000'
per
sons
OtherBusinessHoliday
Source: Ministry of Tourism
Phnom Penh: Value of Construction Approvals April 2008–June 2009
Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC
Phnom Penh: Inflation Year-on-Year Percentage Changes for August 2009
Source: National Institute of Statistics
Phnom Penh: Gasoline & Diesel Prices July 2008–September 2009
3422
3935
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Jul 0
8
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
Sep
09
Rie
ls/ℓ
Diesel Gasoline
Source: CDRI
Interest Rates on 12-Month Bank Loans (percent) May 2008–July 2009
23.0
7
21.9
2
22.4
8
16.4
17.2
2
15.8
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
May
08
Jul 0
8
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
Riel loan rate
Dollar loan rate
Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Apr
08
Jun
08
Aug
08
Oct
08
Dec
08
Feb
09
Apr
09
Jun
09
USD
m
OtherFlatsVillas & houses
-2.9
-2.3
5.7
-9.9
6.6
8.1-13.2
-7.7
-0.513.8
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
All items Fo o d & no n-a lco ho lic beveragesClo thing and fo o tware Ho us ing and utilitie sHH furnis hings and o pera tio ns HealthTrans po rt Co mmunicatio nsRecrea tio n and culture Educa tio n
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 5
sßanPaBGRtabþÚrR)ak; nig CMnYyGPivDÆn_BIeRkARbeTs Exchange Rates and External Development Assistance Riels per US Dollar
July 2008–September 2009
Source: National Bank of Cambodia
Riels per THB & VND July 2008–September 2009
Source: National Bank of Cambodia
Monetary Survey (Percent change) May 2008–July 2009
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
May
08
Jul 0
8
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
Annualised growth rate (M2)Annualised growth rate (M1)Growth over the previous 12 months (M2)
Source: National Bank of Cambodia
Domestic Credit (Percent change) May 2008–July 2009
-40-20
020406080
100120140160180
May
08
Jul 0
8
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
0102030405060708090100110
Annualised change in domestic credit (left)Annualised change in private sector credit (left)Previous 12 months' growth in domestic credit (right)
Source: National Bank of Cambodia Monetary Operations May 2008–July 2009
Source: National Bank of Cambodia
External Development Assistance Disbursement: Environment & Conservation
2000–2007 Source: Cambodia Aid Effectiveness Report 2007, CDC
4119 41
50 4161
4102 41
34 4145
3900
3950
4000
4050
4100
4150
4200Ju
l 08
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
Sep
09
Market rate
Official rate
120
122.
412
3.3
24.9
23.4
23.4
114115116117118119120121122123124
Jul 0
8
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
Sep
09
KH
R pe
r Bah
t
1920212223242526272829
KH
R pe
r VD
N10
0
Thai baht (left)Vietnamese dong (right)
-6000-4000-2000
02000400060008000
100001200014000
May
08
Jul 0
8
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
KH
R bn
Liquidity Net Foreign Assets Private Sector Credit Government DepositsOther
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
USD
m
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 6
BaNiC¢kmµeRkARbeTs nig karGnuvtþfvikaCati External Trade and National Budget Operations
Imports: Cigarettes & Construction Materials May 2008–July 2009
Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC
Cambodia: Main Exports May 2008–July 2009
Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC
Imports: Petroleum Products May 2008–July 2009
Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC
Current Budget Operations June 2008–August 2009
Source: MEF Bulletin Current Budget Revenue June 2008–August 2009
Source: MEF web site
Current Budget Expenditure June 2008–August 2009
Source: MEF web site
247251276
85908780
5541
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jun
08
Aug
08
Oct
08
Dec
08
Feb
09
Apr
09
Jun
09
Aug
09
KH
R bn
Non-taxImport and Export taxesDomes tic taxes
35.2
65.9 45.5
16.0
11.8
20.414.2
16.5
12.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120M
ay 0
8
Jul 0
8
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
KH
R bn
Cigarettes Cement Steel
108.
398
.6
98.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
May
08
Jul 0
8
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
KH
R b
n
-4
129
-144-200-150-100
-500
50100150200250
Jun
08
Aug
08
Oct
08
Dec
08
Feb
09
Apr
09
Jun
09
Aug
09
KH
R bn
416
18567
164
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jun
08
Aug
08
Oct
08
Dec
08
Feb
09
Apr
09
Jun
09
Aug
09
KH
R bn
Other servicesSubsidies and social assistanceWagesCurrent expenditure
050
100150200250300350400
May
08
Jul 0
8
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
USD
m
012345678
USD
m
Total exports (left) Garments (left)Rubber (right) Fish (right)
éføTMnijtamextþkñúgRbeTskm<úCa³ tammuxTMnij Provincial Goods Prices in Cambodia by Products
Cambodia: Rice Prices in Three Provinces
Source: CDRI
Cambodia: Rice Prices in Three Provinces
Source: CDRI Cambodia: Fish Prices in Three Provinces
Source: CDRI
Cambodia: Fish Prices in Three Provinces
Source: CDRI
Cambodia: Pork Prices in Three Provinces
Source: CDRI
Cambodia: Pork Prices in Three Provinces
Source: CDRI
2550
2550
2550
240025
00
2500 29
00
2200
2400 24
75
2500
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09
Riel
s/kg
BattambangKompong SpeuKompong Cham
2550
2600
2400
2800
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2700
2600
2600
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09
Riel
s/kg
KampotSiem ReapSvay Rieng
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09
Riel
s/kg
BattambangKompong SpeuKompong Cham
1400
0
1600
0
1500
0
1600
0
1300
0
1400
0
1400
0
1200
0
1200
0
1200
0
1300
0
1300
0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09
Riel
s/kg
KampotSiem ReapSvay Rieng
1650
0
1650
0
1650
0
1650
0
1650
0
1650
0
1600
0
1650
0
1800
0
1800
0
1800
0
1800
0
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
17500
18000
18500
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09
Riel
s/kg Battambang
Kompong SpeuKompong Cham
1800
0
1800
0
1700
0
1800
0
1800
0
1600
0
1600
0
1600
0
1500
0
1500
0
1500
0
1500
0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09
Riel
s/kg
KampotSiem ReapSvay Rieng
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 9
tMélTMnij karnaMecj nig cMnYneTscrGnþrCatienAkñúgRbeTsCaédKUrbs;km<úCa Goods Prices, Exports and International Tourist Arrivals to Partners of Cambodia
Thailand: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Maize June 2008–August 2009
Source: Bank of Thailand, Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments
Vietnam: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Cashew NutsJune 2008–August 2009
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Thailand: Exports
June 2008–August 2009
Source: Customs Department of Thailand
Vietnam: Exports June 2008– August 2009
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam
Thailand: International Arrivals October 2006–December 2007*
Source: Tourism Authority of Thailand *Data are available to December 2007.
Vietnam: International Arrivals June 2008–August 2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jun-
08
Aug
-08
Oct
-09
Dec
-08
Feb-
09
Apr
-09
Jun-
09
Aug
-09
000'
per
sons
Others
Business
Tourism
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Data were estimated by the statistics office.
0
200400
600800
1000
12001400
1600
Oct
06
Dec
06
Feb
07
Apr
07
Jun
07
Aug
07
Oct
07
Dec
07
000
pers
ons
Air Land Sea
200300400500600700800900
Jun
08
Aug
08
Oct
08
Dec
08
Feb
09
Apr
09
Jun
09
Aug
09
USD
m
0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
USD
m
Rice (left)Natural rubber and similar natural gums (left)Cashew and similar nuts (right)
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jun
08
Aug
08
Oct
08
Dec
08
Feb
09
Apr
09
Jun
09
Aug
09
USD
per
tonn
e
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
USD
per
tonn
e
Rice (left) Rubber (right)
Cashew nuts (right)
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jun
08
Aug
08
Oct
08
Dec
08
Feb
09
Apr
09
Jun
09
Aug
09
USD
per
tonn
e
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
USD
per
tonn
e
Rice (left)Rubber (right)Maize and Maize Products (right)
Year-on-Year Growth of Main Exports: Japan (%)November 2008–July 2009
Source: Japanese Trade and Investment Statistics
Goods Exports: US, Euro Zone & Japan June 2008–June 2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jun
08
Aug
08
Oct
08
Dec
08
Feb
09
Apr
09
Jun
09
USD
bn
US Euro zoneJapan
Sources: BEA, Eurostat and OECD
External Trade: Malaysia July 2008–July 2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09
USD
bn
Exports Imports Trade balance
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Inflation Rates: US, Euro Zone & Japan (price change from a year earlier)
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Aug 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09
USA Euro zone Japan
Sources: IMF and Economist (1 October 2009)
Inflation Rate: China, Hong Kong & South Korea (price change from a year earlier)
-3%
-2%-1%
0%
1%2%
3%
4%5%
6%
Aug 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09
China Hong Kong South Korea
Sources: IMF and Economist (1 October 2009)
Inflation Rate: Selected ASEAN Countries (price change from a year earlier)
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Aug 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09
Malaysia SingaporeThailand
Sources: IMF and Economist (1 October 2009)
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09
Manufactured goods MachineryElectricial machinery Transport equipmentTotal
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 11
GRtabþÚrR)ak; nig sßanPaBtMélTMnijelITIpSarGnþrCati Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in World Markets
KRW & HKD per USD September 2008–September 2009 (monthly average)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
EUR & JPY per USD July 2008–September 2009 (monthly average)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
THB & SGD Per USD July 2008–September 2009 (monthly average)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Rice: International Prices Index & Export Prices June 2008–August 2009
Sources: Osiriz/InfoArroz and InterRice Prices: Soybeans, Maize & Palm Oil
May 2008–July 2009 Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation
Prices: Crude Oil, Gasoline & Diesel September 2008–September 2009
Source: US Energy Information Administration
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
Sep
09
KRW
7.72
7.73
7.74
7.75
7.76
7.77
7.78
7.79
7.80
HK
D
KRW (left scale)HKD (right scale)
90
9498
102
106110
114
118122
126
Jul 0
8
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
Sep
09
JPY
0.6
0.630.66
0.69
0.720.75
0.78
0.810.84
0.87
EURO
JPY (left scale)
EURO (right scale)
1.35
1.38
1.41
1.44
1.47
1.50
1.53
1.56
Jul 0
8
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
Sep
09
SGD
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
THB
SGD (left scale)THB (right scale)
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
Jun
08
Aug
08
Oct
08
Dec
08
Feb
09
Apr
09
Jun
09
Aug
09
USD
/ to
nne
FOB
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
IPO
USA 2/4Thai 100% BIPO
0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
5 0 0
6 0 0
May
08
Jul 0
8
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
USD
/ to
nne
FOB
0
4 0 0
8 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 6 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
S o y b e a n s : U S N o .1 , Y e llo w ( le f t s c a le )M a iz e : U S N o .2 , Y e llo w ( le f t s c a le )P a lm O il: c ru d e ( r ig h t s c a le )
20,000 garment workers lose jobs in Cambodia: The global economic downturn has forced at least 20,000 workers to lose their jobs in Cambodia’s garment industry this year, a labour ministry report showed Monday (October 5). Between January and September, 77 factories were closed across the country resulting in the loss of 30,617 jobs, according to the report obtained by AFP. Although 40 new factories opened in same the period and created more employment, more than 20,000 job losses remained, it showed. Another 53 factories also suspended operations during the period but about half have reopened. “The closure of the factories is due to fewer purchase orders,” Oum Mean, secretary of state at the Ministry of Labour, told AFP. “We can assume that this has been caused by the global financial crisis because the consumption in big countries has declined and this made some factories receive no purchase orders,” he said. In the face of shrinking demand from the US, the largest importer of Cambodian-made garments, the government is seeking new markets for textiles in Asia and Europe, Oum Mean added. Cambodia’s garment industry is the impoverished country’s largest source of income, providing 80 percent of its foreign exchange earnings and employing an estimated 350,000 people last year. The International Monetary Fund said last month that Cambodia’s economy will contract 2.75 percent this year as the global economic crisis takes its toll. (Source: AFP, October 5)
Links to other economic news:
1. “IMF predicts Cambodian economy to be over 4% in 2010” (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/24/content_12104498.htm) 2. “ADB revises GDP growth forecast for Cambodia” (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/22/content_12098450.htm) 3. “Cambodia inflation down by sixth consecutive month” (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/15/content_12055262.htm) 4. “ASEAN economies have emerged from recession” (http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news_lite.php?id=435484