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FLARECAST: A project overview D. Shaun Bloomfield (Northumbria University, UK) FLARECAST Consortium (Europe)
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FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

Jul 11, 2018

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Page 1: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

FLARECAST:Aprojectoverview

D.ShaunBloomfield(NorthumbriaUniversity,UK)FLARECASTConsortium(Europe)

Page 2: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

• FirstH2020fundingcall(PROTEC-1-2014– SpaceWeather)

– Scope:“Exploratoryworkstudyingnewideasfordataanalysis andmodellingofspaceweatherwithaviewtoenhancingtheperformanceofspaceweatherprediction”

– Expectedimpact:“…todelivernewinsightsintothedetailedprocessesthatgeneratespaceweather.Thisshouldcontributetonewservicesabletopredict,withasignificantlyhigherprecisionthantoday,spaceweathereventsaffectingtheEarth”

FLARECAST’sOrigins

Page 3: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

• TheFlareLikelihoodAndRegionEruptionforeCASTing (FLARECAST)projectaimsto:

1. understandthedriversofflareactivityandimproveflareprediction

2. provideagloballyaccessibleflarepredictionservicethatfacilitatesexpansion

3. engagewithspace-weatherendusersandinformpolicymakersandthepublic

Aims and Objectives

Page 4: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

Consortium Partners

Institution Country ExpertiseAcademy ofAthens(AA)ProjectCoordinator GR Solarphysics,flareforecasting

TrinityCollegeDublin(TCD) IE Solarphysics,flareforecasting

Università degli Studi diGenova (UNIGE) IT Mathematicaltechniques

Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) IT Mathematicaltechniques

CentreNationaldelaRecherche Scientifique(CNRS)

FR Solarphysics,magnetic fieldsimulations

Université Paris-Sud (PSUD) FR Infrastructure(MEDOC)

Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz (FHNW) CH Computerscience

MetOffice (MO) UK Operational SpWx,verification

NorthumbriaUniversity(UNN)Project Scientist UK Solarphysics,flareforecasting,verification

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Consortium Locations

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ProjectStructure

WP1

WP2 WP3

WP4

WP5

WP6

WP7

Page 7: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

• ProjectManagementBoard

– PC,PS,WPleaders(min.1partnerrepresentative)• monthlytelecons;6monthlyphysicalmeetings

• SteeringCommittee

– NealHurlbert (USA– featureextraction/infrastructure)CHAIR– GrahamBarnes(USA– flareforecasting)– DougBiesecker (USA– operationalSpWx)– PedroRusso(NL– EPO)– SilviaVilla (IT– machinelearning)*beingapproached

• quarterlytelecons;2attendingtoday(Neal&Graham)

WP1:ProjectManagement

Page 8: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

• CataloguedProperties• McIntoshandMt.Wilsonclasses

• Line-of-sight(LOS)MagneticProperties• spatialdistribution:Fourierpowerindex,(multi)fractaldimension• connectivity:B-effective• polarityinversionlines(PILs):Schrijver’s R value,Falconer’sLWLSG

• Vector-magneticProperties• localizedversionofSHARPheaderquantities(beyondjusttotalsandaverages)• helicity measures• refinedflowfieldmeasures(DAVE4VM)

• Propertyassociationwithflares• fullGOESsoftX-rayflarehistoryincludedinpropertydatabase

WP2:Active RegionProperties

Page 9: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

• CataloguedProperties

– McIntoshandMt.Wilsonclasses

• Line-of-sightMagneticProperties

– spatialdistribution:Fourierpowerindex,(multi)fractaldimension

– connectivity:Beff

– polarityinversionlines (PILs):Schrijver’s R,Falconer’sLWLSG

WP2:Active RegionProperties

Page 10: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

• Propertyassociationwithflares

– fullGOESflarehistoryincludedinpropertyDB

• Vector-magneticProperties

– localizedversionofSHARPheaderquantities(beyondtotals/averages)

– helicity measures

– betterflowfields(DAVE4VM)

WP2:Active RegionProperties

Page 11: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

• PrimaryDataSources

– SDO/HMInearreal-timeSHARPvector-magnetograms

– NOAA/SWPC

• solarregionsummaries• GOESsoftX-rayevents

• SecondaryDataSources

– exploringground-basedline-of-sightandvectordata

WP2:Active RegionProperties

Page 12: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

• ExistingAlgorithms

– Poissonaverageflarerate

• UnsupervisedClusteringMethods

– k-means– possibilistic C-means

• SupervisedLearningMethods

– multi-layerperceptron(MLP)– recurrentneuralnetwork(NN)

WP3:Flare Prediction Algorithms

– discriminantanalysis

– clusteringwithsimulatedannealing

– supportvectormachine(SVM)

Page 13: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

WP4:DataStorageand Processing

• RESTful APIforDataTransfer

– allDBreading/writingviahttp

• Semi-structuredDataModel

– JSONdatatypes,extendable

Page 14: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

WP4:DataStorageand Processing

• Docker Containers

– compatiblewithallmajorOS – pickandmixinstallation

Page 15: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

• DataValidation

– checksofinputdataintegrityandcontinuity

• ForecastVerification:Benchmarking

– applicationofstandardverificationmetrics– assessmentofpredictionalgorithmsandtheirresults,feedingintoWP6to

improveactiveregionpropertiesandpredictiontechniques

• ForecastVerification:ErrorAssessment

– techniquestoassignuncertaintyestimatestoverificationmetrics

WP5:Dataand ForecastValidation

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• UnderstandingMagneticEruptions

– exploitationofexistingMHDsimulations

– investigatethepropertiesandevolutionsthattriggereruptions

• ImprovingFlarePrediction

– testnewpropertiesaspredictors

– createnoveltimeseriespredictionalgorithms

WP6:ExplorativeResearch

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• SuitabilityofForecastTimeScales

– studydifferingforecastwindows andforecastlatency

– needstobedrivenbytherequirementsofSpWx end-users

• AdvanceCMEPrediction

– gaininsightbycorrelatingactiveregionpropertieswithCMEoccurrence

– alignment/interactionwithexistingEUprojects(HELCATS)

WP6:ExplorativeResearch

Page 18: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

• EducationandPublicOutreach– socialmediaactivity(e.g.,Twitter),pressreleases– participateatpublicevents– educationalmaterialforformal/informallearningandpublicitymaterials

• DisseminationtoScientificCommunity– publishpeer-reviewedliterature– participateindiversesciencemeetings,coordinatingthematicsessions– organizeinformationalsessionsforjuniorpost-gradstudents(PROGRESS)

• DisseminationtoIndustryandGovernment– raiseawarenessbypresentingatSpWx meetingswithindustrialfocus– highlightsocietalimpactstopolicymakersandGovernmentofficials– organise workshopsforendusers inindustryandGovernment

WP7:Dissemination

Page 19: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

• Projectprogressingnominally

– propertyDB(designed);propertyextractionalgorithms(integrated)

– predictionDB(designed);predictionalgorithms(being integrated)

– forecastDB(undergoing design);verificationalgorithms(being tested)

• Crucialstageforrelevance/utilityofforecasts

– end-userrecommendationsrequiredtoguidetailoring

• BreakoutI:Userneedsandgoals

• BreakoutII:Roadmapforflareforecastdevelopments

FinalThoughts

Page 20: FLARECAST: A project overviewflarecast.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLARECAST_Overview... · – Doug Biesecker(USA – operational SpWx) – Pedro Russo ... – NOAA/SWPC • solar

Website:http://flarecast.eu

Twitter:@FLARECAST_EU

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