Page 1
Fixed Wireless EconomicsFixed Wireless Economics
Personal Background:SkyPilot – outdoor WiFi meshCovad – DSL / VoIP Genuity – nationwide IP access Hughes – satellite dataATT/Intel – future RBOC network
Personal Background:SkyPilot – outdoor WiFi meshCovad – DSL / VoIP Genuity – nationwide IP access Hughes – satellite dataATT/Intel – future RBOC network
Duncan M. [email protected]
Duncan M. [email protected]
Selected VPVP Investments:Metricom – Ricochet NetworkDSL.Net – DSL / VoIP Aerie – nationwide IP accessBroadstorm – OFDM FWBCBeyond – VoIP for SME
Selected VPVP Investments:Metricom – Ricochet NetworkDSL.Net – DSL / VoIP Aerie – nationwide IP accessBroadstorm – OFDM FWBCBeyond – VoIP for SME
Page 2
The Promise: Wireless is *Much* CheaperThe Promise: Wireless is *Much* Cheaper
Fiber to home $200billion ($1,256/home)
FTTN / All IP Cable $ 20 billion ($200/home)
WiMAX/WiFi Cloud$ 2 billion ($20K/sq mile)
Customer Mesh $ 0.2 billion ($2/home)
Nationwide Buildout Cost(Order of Magnitude)
Page 3
Operator EconomicsOperator Economics
Five DriversFive Drivers
network new subs sites subs services
B/SB/S
POPPOP
BHBH
MktgMktg
CPECPE
RentRent
T3T3Cust CareCust Care
VoIPVoIP
DataData
Depreciated over useful life
Amortized over lifetime (1/churn rate)
FieldField
Site costs grow by ^2Site costs grow by ^2
No CPE is the new goal No CPE is the new goal
Equipment getting cheapSites & spectrum priceyEquipment getting cheapSites & spectrum pricey
Nothing special hereNothing special here
VoIP is a cheap revenue kicker!VoIP is a cheap revenue kicker!SpectrumSpectrumSpectrumSpectrum
Page 4
MetricomMetricom
Technology:
2.4 GHz mesh backhaul
900 MHz fronthaul
28.8 kbps 128 kbps
Proprietary CPE
Economics:
7 16 sq mi
$33k /sq mi + CPE
Technology:
2.4 GHz mesh backhaul
900 MHz fronthaul
28.8 kbps 128 kbps
Proprietary CPE
Economics:
7 16 sq mi
$33k /sq mi + CPE
¼ mile radius¼ mile radius
2 Radio Poletop2 Radio Poletop
Page 5
Metro WiFiMetro WiFi
Technology:
2.4 5.8 GHz mesh backhaul
2.4 GHz fronthaul
CPE required for 75% of users
330 Kbps / user
Economics:
Cheaper radio BUT smaller radius
16 25 /sq mi
$20k $30K/sq mi + 75% CPE
Technology:
2.4 5.8 GHz mesh backhaul
2.4 GHz fronthaul
CPE required for 75% of users
330 Kbps / user
Economics:
Cheaper radio BUT smaller radius
16 25 /sq mi
$20k $30K/sq mi + 75% CPE
< ¼ mile radius< ¼ mile radius
1 Radio Poletop1 Radio Poletop
Page 6
3G WiFi3G WiFi
Technology:
2.4 GHz mesh backhaul
2.4 GHz fronthaul
330 kbps / user
No CPE required
Economics:
Multi-radio units with directional antennas
25 40 /sq mi
$50K $200K /sq mi
Technology:
2.4 GHz mesh backhaul
2.4 GHz fronthaul
330 kbps / user
No CPE required
Economics:
Multi-radio units with directional antennas
25 40 /sq mi
$50K $200K /sq mi
Engineer for Engineer for 85%+ coverage85%+ coverage
Star GridStar Grid
Page 7
WiMAXWiMAX
Technology:
5.8 GHz backhaul
2.5/3.5/5.8 GHz fronthaul
384 Kbps /user
Mixed CPE model
Economics:
Multi-radio B/S with cheap CPE
½ to 1 B/S / sq mi
$125K /sq mi + 80% CPE
Technology:
5.8 GHz backhaul
2.5/3.5/5.8 GHz fronthaul
384 Kbps /user
Mixed CPE model
Economics:
Multi-radio B/S with cheap CPE
½ to 1 B/S / sq mi
$125K /sq mi + 80% CPE
CellularCellular
* Source: joint Intel / ArrayComm analysis of interference-limited 802.16 networks
¼ Mile: ¼ Mile: No CPENo CPE
½ Mile: ½ Mile: Inside CPE*Inside CPE*
1 Mile: 1 Mile: Mounted CPEMounted CPE
Source: WiMAX Forum. Note that B/S cost include backhaul, site planning and other network gear, and doubles for SME
Page 8
WiMAX Mesh(or mutant WIFi MAC)WiMAX Mesh(or mutant WIFi MAC)
Technology:
5.8 GHz (WiMAX*) mesh backhaul
2.4 GHz (WiFi) fronthaul
1 3 Mbps /user
Timed CPE Model (as mesh builds, CPE goes away)
Economics:
Start thin, grow to no CPE
5 25 /sq mi
$10K + CPE $20K /sq mi
Technology:
5.8 GHz (WiMAX*) mesh backhaul
2.4 GHz (WiFi) fronthaul
1 3 Mbps /user
Timed CPE Model (as mesh builds, CPE goes away)
Economics:
Start thin, grow to no CPE
5 25 /sq mi
$10K + CPE $20K /sq mi
Grows organically Grows organically to 100% coverageto 100% coverage
Sectorized MeshSectorized Mesh
* Or Mutant WiFi MAC
Page 9
Customer MeshCustomer Mesh
Technology:
5.8 GHz (WiMAX*) mesh backhaul
2.4 GHz (WiFi) fronthaul
1 3 Mbps /user
Timed CPE Model (as mesh builds, CPE goes away)
Economics:
Start thin, grow to no CPE
5 25 /sq mi
$5K $2K /sq mi
Technology:
5.8 GHz (WiMAX*) mesh backhaul
2.4 GHz (WiFi) fronthaul
1 3 Mbps /user
Timed CPE Model (as mesh builds, CPE goes away)
Economics:
Start thin, grow to no CPE
5 25 /sq mi
$5K $2K /sq mi
Customers Customers areare the infrastructurethe infrastructure
Sectorized MeshSectorized Mesh
* Or Mutant WiFi MAC