Five Questions Speculations on the Universe, You, and Foresight in a World of Accelerating Technological Change Mindshare LA July 2008 Los Angeles, CA.

Five Questions Speculations on the Universe, You, and Foresightin a World of Accelerating Technological Change

Mindshare LAJuly 2008 Los Angeles, CA

John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies FoundationSlides: accelerating.org/slides.html

Outline

1. What is Accelerating Change? 2. What is the Universe? 3. Who are You in Relation to the Universe? 4. What Aspects of Our Future Can We

Reasonably Understand Today? 5. Why Should You Engage in Foresight /

Futures Studies?

What is Accelerating Change?Your intuitions, please!

What is Accelerating Change?An Unexplained and Fascinating Phenomenon

Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto

AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

© 2007 Accelerating.org

Acceleration Studies:Something Curious Is Going On

An unexplained physical phenomenon.

(Don’t look for this in your current

physics or information theory texts…)

A ‘Developmental Spiral’




The Developmental Spiral

Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 yrs ago Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs Empires Age 2,500 yrs Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950) Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020) Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050) Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060) Tech Singularity ≈ 2060




Acceleration Studies Foundation: Who We Are

ASF (Accelerating.org) is a small nonprofit community of scholars (est. 2003) exploring accelerating change in:1. Science, Technology, Business, and Society

(STBS), at

2. Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and Universal (POSGU) levels of analysis.

Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University




Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do

We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) futures studies, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and

trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and 2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we

may use to create unique and creative paths (many of which will fail) on the way to these highly probable developmental destinations.

Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include:– Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity

in our global sociotechnological systems– Increasing technological autonomy, and – Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-

digital interface.

What is the Universe?Your intuitions, please!

What is the Universe?One current model:

A ‘life-like’ system, engaging in both evolution and development.




Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo): The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change

““Experimentation”Experimentation”Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation,Chaos, Contingency,Early Species Radiation(Mostly Nonadapted)Stochastic SearchStrange AttractorsRadiation

Development

‘Right Hand’ of Change

Evolution

‘Left Hand’ of ChangeWell-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’

““Convergent Unification”Convergent Unification”Main Actor: EnvironmentMEST Compression,Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,‘Evolutionary’ Convergence,Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Dissipative Structures,Positive Sumness/Synergy,Niche Construction/Stigmergy, Self-Organization (Global Adaptation) Environmental OptimizationStandard AttractorsHierarchy

““Natural Selection”Natural Selection”Main Actor: Organism Life Cycle, Growth Curves,Modularity, Responsiveness,Plasticity, Intelligence(Local Adaptation)Requisite VarietyMixed AttractorsAdaptation

Evo Devo

(Intersection)




Evolution and Development in Universal Terms: A Table and a Some Key Conjectures

Some Key Conjectures:

Evolution is intelligence/information accumulation.Development is intelligence/information preservation.

Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty.Development causes cyclic predictability and stability.

Evolution drives most unique local patterns.Development drives most predictable global patterns.

Life, Intelligence, the Universe and You and I actively use both evo and devo processes in order to thrive.

The more consciously we are aware of this, the more we can understand, value, and work with both.

Each has different and often conflicting processes and aims. Both are critical to our life, society, and the universe.




Evolution vs. Development:Understand it in Life, Understand it in the Universe

Consider two ‘genetically identical’ twins:

Thumbprints, brain wiring, learned ideas and behaviors, many local processes and ‘small things’ are unpredictably unique in each twin. Yet many processes and ‘large things’ are predictably the same.

The Lesson: (Predictable and conservative) development is always different from but works with (unpredictable and creative) evolutionary processes.Both are fundamental to universal complexity.




More Questions, and a Research Community

Are evo and devo both fundamental methods our universe uses to create and maintain complexity?

By analogy with two genetically-identical twins, would two parametrically-identical universes each exhibit unpredictable and unique evolutionary differentiation over their lifespan, and at the same time, a broad set of predictable and shared developmental milestones, structure and function between them?

If so, can we come to understand our universe as an evolutionary developmental (evo devo) system?




Evo Devo Theory in Politics:Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!)

Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability

Developmental sustainability without continuous change/creativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism).

Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).




Evo Devo Theory in Politics:Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!)

Evo devo theory suggests that both Republican and Democratic platforms bridge the evo devo political center in two complementary ways. That would make each integral, fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures.

Republicans are Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political IssuesEvo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues

Democrats areEvo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political IssuesDevo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues

Who are You in Relation to the Universe?Your intuitions, please!

Who are You in Relation to the Universe?A very complex and special piece of the universe, evolved and developed by the

universe to create (evo), sustain (devo), and understand (evo devo) the universe from your perspective, and to form beliefs about those

things you don’t yet understand.




‘Cosmic Embryogenesis’:Complexity Development in Three Easy Steps

Geosphere/Geogenesis(Chemical Substrate)

Biosphere/Biogenesis(Biological-Genetic Substrate)

Noosphere/Noogenesis(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)

The Phenomenon of Man, 1955

Pierre Teihard de Chardin (1881-1955)

Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist, Developmental Systems Theorist




De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth

"No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively."

Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition (‘Singularity’)

What Aspects of Our Future Can We Reasonably Understand Today?

Your intuitions, please!

What Aspects of Our Future Can We Reasonably Understand Today?

As in Living Systems, We Can Increasingly Understand All the Developmental Aspects of Our Future, But the Evolutionary Aspects

are Perpetually Novel and Surprising.




Artificial Intelligence is Coming Of Age

• AI is growing, but not yet fastest growing industry ― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U.S., Asia, Europe are equally strong in AI ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert systems growing faster than decision support, agents, evo AI ― Mostly incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc.), few new platforms• Translation, Natural Language Processing, and Computer telephony (CT) are improving rapidly (Google, Directory Systems, Booking Systems) Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop soon.• Coming: Conversational Interface (CI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture/Valuecosm




Robo sapiens is on the Horizon

AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2

(Can get up when he falls or when you knock him down)

“Huey and Louey”

Aibo Soccer




IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015-2025

Date Avg. Query Platform

1998 1.3 words Altavista2005 2.6 words Google2012 5.2 words GoogleHelp2019 10.4 words

GoogleBrain

Average spoken human-to-humanquery length is 11 words.

Codebreaking follows a logistic curve.

Collective NLP may as well.




Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/AgentInterface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020?

Ananova, 2002“Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987

Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a much more efficient communication modality.Birdwhistell: 2/3 of information inface-to-face human conversation is nonverbal.




Post 2020: The Symbiotic Age

A Coevolution between Saturating Humansand Accelerating Technology:

A time when computers “speak our language.”A time when our technologies are very

responsive to our needs and desires.A time when humans and machines are

intimately connected, and always improving each other.

A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”




Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.

“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)

Personality Capture: A Long-Term Development of Intelligence Amplification




Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)

Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org

“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”

“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.”

Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.”When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.”

Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition.

When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death.

We wouldn’t have it any other way.




Valuecosm 2040:Our Plural-Positive Political Future

Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s

- Recording and Publishing DT Preferences- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Early Examples: Social Network Media




Problem: Unsustainable Environmental PracticesLong-Term Opportunity: Sustainability Economics

Canon’s WEEE Man3.3 long tons of electrojunk(current average first world human elec. waste) Shrink the man!

First (and only) platinum-certified LEED building in AZ in 2007: ASU’s Biodesign Institute




Problem: Violent ConflictLong-Term Opportunity: Reducing Global Violence

Steven Pinker, “A History of Violence,” 2007 Civil society: 1) replaces anarchy with order, 2) increases value

of life, 3) offers positive-sum interactions, 4) expands one’s circle of empathy

In sixteenth-century Paris, a popular form of entertainment was cat-burning. Such atrocities could not be popular culture today.

20th Century state war deaths of 100 million would have been 2 billion (20X) if they had the relative mortality of tribal warfare.

Homicide rates in England (typical) fell from 24 per 100,000 in the fourteenth century to 0.6 per 100,000 by the early 1960s.

Battle deaths in interstate wars havedeclined from 65,000/yr in the 1950s to 2,000/yr in 1990’s

See Human Security Brief 2006(www.humansecuritybrief.info/)

“A History of Violence,” Steven Pinker, The New Republic Online, 19 Mar 2007

http://www.humansecuritybrief.info/




Problem: Low Cost, Sustainable Energy SupplyLonger-Term Opportunity: Solar Energy

Not yet a revolutionary platform at present: 10%-25% conversion efficiencies today. May

need 50% efficiencies for significant “substitution” over fossil fuels.

High yield cells are not yet cheap or very environmentally friendly.

Before 1990’s, it may have taken more energy to create solar cells than they could generate in a lifetime (neg. energy payback). Energy paybacks on solar cells now range from 4-10 yrs. Economic paybacks are still 3X this (15-30 years).

We also need cheap solar energy storage systems (nanobatteries, flywheels, etc.)

Germany has greatest number of solar photovoltaic (PV) cell installations today.

Solar PV-electric likely to be cost competitive with coal-fired power plant electric in 2020’s

We are in the last generation of ‘geostrategic’ energy politics.

See: Photon Consulting, 2007




Problem: Water SupplyLong-Term Opportunity: Desalination

Annual desalination output in Abu Dhabi

Water use in Israel. Agricultural and residential efficiency innovations can deliver the most savings.

Desalinated water production gets half as expensive per cubic meter every six years (LA Times, 2005)

Reverse osmosis is one of several types of desalination technologies.




Problem: Gridlock in Growing CitiesLonger-Term Opp: Underground Automated Hwy Systems

May be significantly cheaper than air taxi transport (per passenger mile, once installed). No visual blight, reclaim surface real estate. Allows > 10X growth in our current traffic capacity in our leading cities, lower transit times and better safety than manual driving. Requires Intelligent and Zero-Emission Vehicle’s (2025+) Number of tunnel boring machines are doubling every three years.

“Underground Automated Highway Systems: A 2030 Scenario,” John Smart, 2005

Why Should You Engage inForesight / Futures Studies?

Your intuitions, please!

Why Should You Engage in Foresight / Futures Studies?

Hindsight, Insight, and Foresight Make us Mindful, Balanced and Alive in the Present.

Foresight Can Be Developed, Like Any Other Skill, to Help Us Understand and Differentiate Predictable and Unpredictable Aspects of our

Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and Universal Futures



Global Futures Network: For Professional Futurists, Foresight Educators, and You!


GFN is your portal to the best online social networks (Shaping Tomorrow, GFN LinkedIn, GFN Facebook), social groups (ASF Future Salons, WTA and WFS Chapters), organizations, listserves, conferences, websites, periodicals, publications, etc. for those interested in futures/foresight subjects. Join us!

A public, community-edited People, Orgs, and Resources directory for emerging global foresight culture.FuturesNetwork.org



FERN: For Foresight/Futures Educators, Students, and Advocates of Foresight Education

FERN (FERNweb.org) is a global community for foresight/futures educators, students, and advocates of foresight education. It networks foresight educators, the ten academic programs in foresight/futures studies (offering credentials to become a foresight educator), MS and PhD students and alums, and helps develop open source futures/foresight materials, courses, and new academic programs globally.


Foresight Educationand Research Network



Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary and Developmental Processes in the Universe

EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and social scientists, technologists, philosophers, and complexity and systems theorists who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and developmental (significantly predictable) processes in the universe and its subsystems.


Improving foresight through better theories of universal change.




A Closing Visual:Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.

Five Questions Speculations on the Universe, You, and Foresight in a World of Accelerating Technological Change Mindshare LA July 2008 Los Angeles, CA.

Documents

accelerating change

accelerating intelligence

model of change

developmental trends

autonomy age10 yrs

information age70 yrs

symbiotic age30 yrs

industrial age180 yrs