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Bill Gething: Sustainability + Architecture Fit for the Future? October 2010 Specifying Low Carbon Buildings
31

Fit for the Future?

Dec 05, 2014

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Vikki Jacobs

Bill Gething, architect and chair, BRE Global Sustainability Board
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Page 1: Fit for the Future?

Bill Gething: Sustainability + Architecture

Fit for the Future?

October 2010

Specifying Low Carbon Buildings

Page 2: Fit for the Future?

What future? Temperature: Global Mean – Change ºC

Med(A1B)

High(A1F1)

Low(B1)

01

76

53

42

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

30% extinction

30% coastal wetlands lost

Page 3: Fit for the Future?

Shaping the Future? Global GHG Emissions (Gt CO2 eq/ yr)

High(A1F1)

Low(B1)

WorldStabilisation

Scenario

(-4%/ yr from 2016)

2040

160

140

120

8010

060

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Med(A1B)

Page 4: Fit for the Future?

Hotter drier summers

Wetter warmer winters

Extreme events more likely

Sea level rise

Facing up to a changing climate

Page 5: Fit for the Future?

Hotter drier summers

Wetter warmer winters

Extreme events more likely

Sea level rise

Facing up to a changing climate

Page 6: Fit for the Future?

1 2 3 4 5Change in temperature

Pro

babi

lity

of c

hang

e

UK Climate Change Projections A probabilistic approach

Med

ian

valu

e

Page 7: Fit for the Future?

01

76

53

42

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC South East

Likely33%

67%

Low

50%

1º C

10%

90%

Very Likely

Page 8: Fit for the Future?

South East

01

76

53

42

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC

Med

2º C

Zero Carbon HubRecommended target

Page 9: Fit for the Future?

South East

01

76

53

42

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC

High

3º C

Page 10: Fit for the Future?
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Page 13: Fit for the Future?

50%10% 90%10% 90%

2020

2050

2080

+4>5 ºC

Zero Carbon HubRecommended target

+4 ºC

2 ºC (2003)

Page 14: Fit for the Future?

WinterSummer

2050s Med 50%

Annual

Precipitation + Soil shrinkage

Page 15: Fit for the Future?

WinterSummer

2050s Med 50%

Annual

Precipitation + Soil shrinkage

Xtra Lo Xtra Hi

Page 16: Fit for the Future?

ComfortConstructionWater

Design agenda:

Regional variation + geographic specifics Existing stockLow carbon imperative + infrastructure resilienceRobustness/ maintenanceDelight.

Behavioural adaptationTimingScaleCompetition, consensus and regulation.

Tactics:

Context:

Page 17: Fit for the Future?

Comfort

Keeping warmClim

ate

head

lines

Clim

ate

issu

es &

info

rmat

ion

Tim

esca

le

Keeping cool - internal

Keeping cool - external

Page 18: Fit for the Future?

Comfort

Keeping warmClim

ate

head

lines

Clim

ate

issu

es &

info

rmat

ion

Tim

esca

le

Keeping cool - internal

Keeping cool - external

Gaps

?

Page 19: Fit for the Future?

Comfort

Keeping warmClim

ate

head

lines

Clim

ate

issu

es &

info

rmat

ion

Tim

esca

le

Keeping cool - internal

Keeping cool - external

Tran

slat

ion?

Page 20: Fit for the Future?

Construction

Stability –above ground

Stability –below ground

Fixings and weatherproofing

Work on site

Gaps

?

Materials behaviour

Page 21: Fit for the Future?

Water

Water conservation

Flooding

Drainage

Landscape

Page 22: Fit for the Future?

Modern methods of construction

Deep plan

Lightweight walls

Large glazed openings

Flat roofs

Short life, high maintenance materials

Page 23: Fit for the Future?

Retrofitting comfort

Source: Reyner Banham: The Architecture of the Well-tempered Environment: Kips Bay Apartments, New York, I M Pei 1961

Page 24: Fit for the Future?

Source: Reyner Banham: The Architecture of the Well-tempered Environment: Lafayette Apartments, Detroit, I Mies vander Rohe 1961

“Designing in” comfort

Page 25: Fit for the Future?

Local Distinctiveness

Moscow Izmir Sao Paulo Abu Dhabi

Sydney Shanghai Harare

Page 26: Fit for the Future?

The Eastgate Centre, Harare Mick Pearce + Ove Arup, 1996

Resilience

Page 27: Fit for the Future?

Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad

Page 28: Fit for the Future?

Photos: Morley von Sternberg

Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad

Page 29: Fit for the Future?

Photos: Morley von Sternberg

Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad

Page 30: Fit for the Future?

Photos: Morley von Sternberg

Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad

Page 31: Fit for the Future?

http://www.innovateuk.org/_assets/pdf/other-publications/tsb-climatechangereport-0510_final1.pdf

Bill Gething: Sustainability + Architecture [email protected]