Market Commentary Global equities had their worst quarter since 2008, with ferocious downside market action as the coronavirus pandemic hit China first, then Europe and the US, bringing large segments of the business world to a standstill and ending the longest- ever bull market in US history. Global equities posted a 21.4% decline, led by small caps, emerging markets and Europe, energy, and financials, while technology and consumer staple stocks outperformed. Under this backdrop, the ROBO Global indices continued to outperform global equities, with the Robotics & Automation Index (ROBO) down -19.9%, the Healthcare Technology & Innovation Index (HTEC) down -11.0%, and the Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ) down -14.7%. There is no doubt that global economic activity has been in a freefall in recent weeks, as reflected in the unprecedented surge in US unemployment claims to nearly 10 million in just two weeks. However, policy response around the world has been by far stronger and more coordinated than ever. The size of the stimulus in response to the pandemic is unprecedented. We estimate that monetary and fiscal measures enacted and pending amount to over 20% of global GDP. It’s too early to declare victory over this coronavirus. However, new signs of stabilization suggest that this crisis will remain a relatively short-term event. While Europe and the US initially seemed to follow the disastrous path of Hubei, lockdowns now appear to be ‘flattening the curve’ at levels below worst-case scenarios. We are also encouraged by the pace of China’s return to work and avoidance of a renewed surge in infections. Finally, the collapse in oil prices should act as another powerful stimulus as economic activity bottoms out. SUMMARY The ROBO Global innovation indices outperformed during the worst quarter for global equities since 2008. The Robotics & Automation Index (ROBO) declined 20% in Q1, while the Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ) lost 15%, and the Healthcare Technology & Innovation Index (HTEC) was down 11%. We expect the COVID-19 crisis to remain a relatively short-term event. And with strong balance sheets and a small-mid-cap tilt, the ROBO Global index portfolios are well positioned to continue to outperform in the current environment. In this report, we discuss key sector trends and big movers. FIRST QUARTER IN REVIEW: ROBO GLOBAL INNOVATION INDICES ROBO, HTEC, and THNQ QUARTERLY REVIEW Q1 2020 [email protected]| WWW.ROBOGLOBAL.COM 1 Robo Global Indices 1Q 2020 1-year 3-year 5-year ROBO Robotics & Automation -19.9% -11.8% 2.6% 6.0% THNQ Artificial Intelligence -14.7% -7.1% 22.0% 21.4% HTEC Healthcare Technology & Innovation -11.0% -1.4% 22.4% 20.0% Global Equities ACWI AC World Equities -21.4% -11.3% 1.5% 2.9% TOTAL RETURNS
10
Embed
FIRST QUARTER IN REVIEW: ROBO GLOBAL INNOVATION …...Teladoc Health (+85%). The pandemic has driven a high volume of new users to telemedicine platforms like Teladoc, creating a tailwind
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Market Commentary
Global equities had their worst quarter since 2008, with ferocious downside market action as the coronavirus pandemic hit China first, then Europe and the US, bringing large segments of the business world to a standstill and ending the longest-ever bull market in US history. Global equities posted a 21.4% decline, led by small caps, emerging markets and Europe, energy, and financials, while technology and consumer staple stocks outperformed. Under this backdrop, the ROBO Global indices continued to outperform global equities, with the Robotics & Automation Index (ROBO) down -19.9%, the Healthcare Technology & Innovation Index (HTEC) down -11.0%, and the Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ) down -14.7%.
There is no doubt that global economic activity has been in a freefall in recent weeks, as reflected in the unprecedented surge in US unemployment claims to nearly 10 million in just two weeks. However, policy response around the world has been by far stronger and more coordinated than ever. The size of the stimulus in response to the pandemic is unprecedented. We estimate that monetary and fiscal measures enacted and pending amount to over 20% of global GDP. It’s too early to declare victory over this coronavirus. However, new signs of stabilization suggest that this crisis will remain a relatively short-term event. While Europe and the US initially seemed to follow the disastrous path of Hubei, lockdowns now appear to be ‘flattening the curve’ at levels below worst-case scenarios. We are also encouraged by the pace of China’s return to work and avoidance of a renewed surge in infections. Finally, the collapse in oil prices should act as another powerful stimulus as economic activity bottoms out.
SUMMARYThe ROBO Global innovation indices outperformed during the worst quarter for global equities since 2008. The Robotics & Automation Index (ROBO) declined 20% in Q1, while the Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ) lost 15%, and the Healthcare Technology & Innovation Index (HTEC) was down 11%. We expect the COVID-19 crisis to remain a relatively short-term event. And with strong balance sheets and a small-mid-cap tilt, the ROBO Global index portfolios are well positioned to continue to outperform in the current environment. In this report, we discuss key sector trends and big movers.
FIRST QUARTER IN REVIEW: ROBO GLOBAL INNOVATION INDICES ROBO, HTEC, and THNQ
History tells us that bear markets don’t start with recession, they end with recession, and we think this recession will be more akin to what occurs following a natural catastrophe than amid a dragging financial crisis. We believe the ROBO Global index portfolios are well positioned to continue to outperform in the current environment for three main reasons:
1. Our strategies are focused on technology disruptors that are likely to gain share coming out of this crisis, especially in the areas of artificial intelligence, factory and logistics automation, enterprise software, and healthcare technologies. In short, the companies in the ROBO Global indices are part of the solution, as discussed in recent articles by our research team. In fact, our strategies have extremely low exposure to sectors that are experiencing maximum pain points, such as energy, travel, leisure, hospitality, and brick and mortar retail; and high exposure to some of the key near-term beneficiaries, such as healthcare, factory automation, and e-commerce.
2. Our index portfolios have very strong balance sheets, providing the cash necessary to weather the storm. The weighted average Net Debt to EBITDA ratio for the ROBO Index was just negative 0.1x at the end of Q1, and 59% of its members held a net cash position, compared with just 15% of S&P 500 index members and 22% of MSCI ACWI index members. Similarly, HTEC and THNQ had 59% and 67% of their members holding a net cash position.
3. The ROBO and HTEC indices are positioned to outperform in a market recovery. After big sell offs, small- and mid-caps and early cyclicals tend to do best. Both indices are strongly tilted toward small- and mid-cap companies, at 69% and 60% respectively, and typically have less than 3% overlap with stocks in most growth-oriented portfolios. Finally, we note that ROBO is composed mostly of international stocks (55%), with 13 countries represented and a significant overweight in Asia (32%). In fact, Asia accounts for 39% of index revenue—an important consideration given that China appears to be positioned to be the first country to emerge from the pandemic and get back to business as usual.
ROBO: ROBO GLOBAL ROBOTICS & AUTOMATION INDEXRobotics, automation, and AI stocks outperformed global equities in Q1, with the ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index (ROBO) returning a total -19.9% in the quarter, compared to -21.4% for the MSCI AC World Index. All sectors declined in Q1, with Food & Ag Automation (-32%), Manufacturing & Industrial Automation (-28%), and Logistics Automation (-23%) dropping the most, while Security (-2%) and 3D Printing (-11%) outperformed. There was no notable difference by region, with the US, Europe, and Asia all down 19-20%. As of 31 March 2020, 59% of ROBO index members held a net cash position, and the net debt to EBITDA for the portfolio stood at -0.1x.
While the majority of ROBO index members are currently experiencing significant business disruptions, we expect Robotics & Automation companies to emerge from this crisis on a stronger footing. For example, Logistics & Warehouse Automation (accounting for 11% of the ROBO index by weight) will benefit from the enormous strain currently put on e-commerce, and Factory Automation (~35%) is bound to accelerate. Healthcare Automation (12%) will be in high demand once the pandemic recedes. And Computing, Processing & AI (22%) is the backbone that enables many aspects of remote working. In the meantime, we believe the strongest headwind over the next few quarters will be Automation Equipment for the automobile industry, which we estimate at about 7% of index revenue.
FIRST QUARTER IN REVIEW: ROBO GLOBAL INNOVATION INDICES
We believe this set-up is attractive for robotics, AI, and automation stocks. Equities of best-in-class automation stocks from around the world are now trading on a trailing P/E of 21x, a 20% discount to the long-term average of 25x and the 2017 high of 31x. While 2020 EPS growth of 4% based on consensus earnings estimates certainly will come down significantly during the upcoming earnings season, we believe the market is already pricing in a ~20% decline YoY and that earnings will trough in Q2 before improving sequentially from Q3 onward.
MOVERS & SHAKERS:
ISRA Vision (Sensing, +18%). The German Machine Vision company agreed to be acquired by Atlas Copco in a public tender offer at EUR50/share, a 43% premium to the prior day close. This represents a forward P/E of 44x and 7x EV/sales. Atlas Copco aims to create a global leader in Machine Vision with ISRA as its nucleus. ISRA will continue to operate under the same brand, and its headquarters in Darmstadt, Germany, will become a division within the industrial technique business area.
Hangzhou HikVision (Sensing, +11%). The China-based provider of video-centered intelligent solutions and big data services reported strong earnings and a favorable outlook despite worries around operational issues resulting from its placement on the US entity list. The company was removed from the index during the quarter due to failure to comply with the ROBO Global ESG policy after reports that it has been linked to human rights abuses through the sale of surveillance equipment to Chinese authorities.
Nachi-Fujikoshi (Industrial Automation, -54%). The Japanese industrial conglomerate has high exposure to the automobile industry, which we estimate accounts for between one-third and one-half of total sales. With auto markets in all major regions under severe pressure, Nachi could suffer temporary losses in its industrial robots and components businesses. It is smaller than key competitors Fanuc and Yaskawa, but the company holds strong positions with the Toyota group and Mazda. In addition, Nachi is a major player in bearings and a key supplier to Harmonic Drive, which makes the speed reducers for Nachi’s robots.
Aptiv (Industrial Automation, -48%). With US and European car factories idled, the large automotive component supplier focused on making mobility safer, greener, and more connected, announced a series of measures to preserve capital until auto production returns, including suspending its dividend and drawing on all remaining amounts on its revolving credit facility. While Aptiv’s financial position remains solid, the halving of the company’s share price in the quarter reflects risks of a prolonged disruption in the global auto market. Aptiv generates over $1B in active safety revenue and produces a network of software and sensors that can be outfitted onto existing car models to make them autonomous.
FIRST QUARTER IN REVIEW: ROBO GLOBAL INNOVATION INDICES
FIRST QUARTER IN REVIEW: ROBO GLOBAL INNOVATION INDICES
HTEC: HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION INDEXThe Healthcare Technology & Innovation Index (HTEC) returned a total -11.0% in Q1 2020, compared to -21.4% for the MSCI AC World Index, and -11.2% for the S&P Global Healthcare Index. By subsector, Telehealth was the leader, followed by Data Analytics. Robotics and Medical Instruments led the declining subsectors. The index closed the quarter with a median market cap of $7.2B, forward EV/Sales ratio of 4.75x, down from 5.34x at the end of Q419. Finally, 59% of the portfolio has positive net cash.
Telehealth (+35%) and Data Analytics (+2%), which together represent 14% of the HTEC index, led gains in the quarter, in large part due to the strength of companies that are facilitating remote patient monitoring during the global pandemic, such as global telemedicine leaders Teladoc (+85%) and Ping An Healthcare & Technology (+28%), as well as remote monitoring company Livongo (+27%). Veeva (+11%) also saw strong performance as life science organizations increasingly rely on this platform to manage pharmaceutical sales efforts while people work from home.
Robotics (-19%) and Medical Instruments (-19%) led the declining subsectors. Conmed (-49%), Glaukos (-43%), and Globus (-28%) were among the loss leaders, weighed down by the postponement of new large capital purchases and a decline in consumables associated with non-essential procedures, largely seen across the healthcare industry due to the prioritization of COVID-19 in hospitals.
Teladoc Health (+85%). The pandemic has driven a high volume of new users to telemedicine platforms like Teladoc, creating a tailwind for the industry as a whole. Also during the quarter, Teladoc acquired InTouch Health, bringing a more comprehensive virtual care offering to its platform.
Quidel (+30%). The Diagnostics company received authorization in the US, Canada, and Europe to manufacture and sell a molecular test for SARS-CoV-2 that can be run on four different widely used instruments manufactured by Applied Biosystems, Roche, and Qiagen.
Conmed (-49%). The medical technology company makes products used for general surgery and orthopedic applications, which are largely delayed or cancelled due to their elective or non-essential nature during the global pandemic. During the quarter, the company withdrew its FY20 guidance in anticipation of material disruption in demand caused by the rapid spread of COVID-19. Despite the near-term impact, we believe demand for Conmed technology will resume as delayed procedures are rescheduled.
Glaukos (-43%). Another victim of delayed elective procedures, the market leader in glaucoma treatment joined the list of many other corporations to withdraw FY20 guidance. That said, the company has a strong cash position and no outstanding debt obligations. We continue to believe its long-term opportunity will remain after the coronavirus headwinds subside.
ACCELERATION DRIVEN BY THE SHAKEUP
Roughly one-fourth of HTEC Index members have been a part of rapid innovation seeking to diagnose or treat the new coronavirus. Abbott, Thermo Fisher Scientific, and Danaher have produced diagnostics ranging from rapid point-of-care to high throughput tests. Illumina has been widely utilized in the genomic science of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. Therapeutic companies like Regeneron, Moderna, and Incyte have been working around the clock to develop treatments and vaccines.
Beyond the lab, we’ve all been hearing about the increased utilization of telehealth to conduct remote doctor visits in efforts to keep patients at home. Less known, however, is that telehealth has further expanded new use cases, such as dialysis and pre-surgical screenings, to enable the continuity of specialty care while allowing people to stay at home. Life science companies are also adopting remote visits in efforts to continue clinical trials that began before the pandemic. BioTelemetry’s devices are able to remotely monitor patients that have increased risk of a cardiac event while undergoing clinical trials for COVID-19 treatment. Livongo is also seeing increased utilization as employers seek to improve the care of their employees with chronic illnesses due to their increased risk of severity of COVID-19 illness.
LOOKING BEYOND THE PANDEMIC
As we discussed in this recent article, we expect this pandemic to have a net positive fundamental impact on HTEC, as 21% of the index operates in areas that could see incremental demand post-pandemic. We expect utilization of data analytics and telehealth technologies will continue to grow, in part because many new users are getting a taste of higher-quality and lower-cost care. Additionally, assistance from the federal stimulus should further accelerate adoption.
We also expect to see acceleration in science and research, and federal funding will further fuel a tailwind in diagnostics, genomics, precision medicine, and process automation as companies seek to innovate new therapies and vaccines smarter and faster than ever before.
FIRST QUARTER IN REVIEW: ROBO GLOBAL INNOVATION INDICES
FIRST QUARTER IN REVIEW: ROBO GLOBAL INNOVATION INDICES
THNQ: ROBO GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE INDEXThe ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ) declined -14.7% in 1Q20, outperforming the MSCI AC World Index (-21.4%) and S&P 500 (-19.6%). By sector, E-commerce (-7%), Cognitive Computing (-7%), and Cloud Providers (-8%) outperformed, with many companies providing vital solutions for the technology and business infrastructure to accommodate remote working and learning, while E-commerce surged. Nearly 40% of THNQ Index members are enablers and providers for the data center ecosystem and advanced communication technologies. Approximately 70% of THNQ Index members hold a net cash position and generate strong free cash flow. Longer term, the secular demand trends that were in place prior to the COVID-19 crisis—such as the shift to public cloud, artificial intelligence, data encryption, and digital transformation—will remain a top priority as these next-generation technologies enable business flexibility and offer significant revenue opportunities. More details are available on the ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Index factsheet.
Companies in our Consumer and E-commerce sectors with exposure to streaming media and online shopping—including Netflix (+16%), JD.Com (+15%), and Amazon—outperformed during the quarter. Meanwhile, leading e-commerce platform Shopify finished in positive territory as the company reported strong 4Q earnings and indicated strong momentum in January and February with Y/Y growth of +38%. While Shopify will experience a short-term negative impact in its business, the company is sitting on $2.4B in cash and has no meaningful debt. E-commerce companies like Shopify are seeing strong acceleration of web traffic, which we expect to support future growth. While our Semiconductor (-17%) sector suffered headwinds from the COVID-19 supply chain disruption, Nvidia (+12%) and AMD (+15%) continued their momentum thanks to rapid product cycles and growth in data center infrastructure. Driven by the increasing demand from public Cloud providers for compute capacity for hyperscale businesses, this year’s CapEx recovery will be driven by continued a surge in demand for streaming media, e-commerce, and gaming. Higher network traffic will drive the need for additional bandwidth, computing, and storage—all with higher throughput and lower latency. Continuing innovations such as Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence, AR/VR, and lower-power connectivity will also address new challenges.
FIRST QUARTER IN REVIEW: ROBO GLOBAL INNOVATION INDICES
Consulting Services (-26%) underperformed during the quarter driven by global travel restrictions and a pause in demand for outsourcing and consulting services as major projects and implementations were put on hold. While these are vital to long-term corporate strategies, it is likely that new projects will continue to be pushed out until damage can be assessed.
MOVERS & SHAKERS:
Tesla (+25%). The leading designer and manufacturer of electric vehicles and battery storage, Tesla uses its own proprietary software platform to produce the most advanced computing system for autonomous driving capability. Tesla has a multiyear lead in technology versus traditional auto makers and has now delivered its one millionth vehicle, and its delivery and production numbers were better than expected in Q1. Specifically, Tesla’s deliveries were up 40% Y/Y compared to the overall US auto industry, which was down -29%. After a recent $2.3B equity raise, Tesla is well positioned to navigate this year with over $6B in cash. JD.Com (+15%). The leading e-commerce company headquartered in Beijing, China, demonstrated strong execution despite the COVID-19 impact. JD experienced both category and margin expansion during the quarter that is supported by its unique retail and self-operated logistics business. While COVID-19 impact will likely continue to affect consumer spending in home appliances and electronics, JD.Com reiterated guidance for double-digit top-line growth for the quarter after seeing improving sales trends in March.
Nutanix (-53%). The company designs and develops enterprise cloud platforms using AI algorithms to manage large amounts of data in hybrid cloud environments. Nutanix underperformed again mainly due to concerns around its transition to subscriptions and weaker-than-expected bookings. The company is currently working to improve its sales force to build out its pipeline and strengthen its go-to-market approach. We believe that Nutanix is well positioned to return to 20% revenue growth as it completes its transition to a subscription model and enterprise Cloud adoption resumes after the pandemic. Amadeus IT Group SA (-46%). This technology leader provides advanced transaction solutions to global travel providers. Prior to the pandemic, Amadeus delivered double-digit top-line EBITDA and EPS growth for the past few years on market share gains. Shares have suffered declines due to uncertainty across the travel and tourism industry, and the company may be under pressure until travel restrictions are lifted. Longer term, Amadeus is strongly positioned to recover with its best-in-class selling platform for the hospitality industry using advanced analytics and an improved digital experience.