Fire, Water, Soil and Sea Level Can Influence the Position of Mangrove – Marsh Ecotones Through Time T.J. Smith III 1 , A.M. Foster 2 , G. Tiling-Range 3 & J.W. Jones 4 1 Southeast Ecological Science Center, USGS, St. Petersburg, FL 2 Southeast Ecological Science Center, USGS, Gainesville, FL 3 Jacobs Technology, Inc., St. Petersburg, FL 4 Eastern Region Geography Team, Reston, VA
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Fire, Water, Soil and Sea Level Can Influence the
Position of Mangrove – Marsh Ecotones Through
Time
T.J. Smith III1, A.M. Foster2, G. Tiling-Range3 & J.W. Jones4
1 Southeast Ecological Science Center, USGS, St. Petersburg, FL 2 Southeast Ecological Science Center, USGS, Gainesville, FL 3 Jacobs Technology, Inc., St. Petersburg, FL 4 Eastern Region Geography Team, Reston, VA
2 6
2 3
4
5
8
1928 overlay on 2004 DOQQs
The actual 1928 air photo
1940 overlay on 2004 DOQQs
An ecotone that has hardly shifted and never burned.
And one that has shifted and burned.
Maybe fire is NOT that important as a control.
SH1
SH1 in 1940
Mangrove
Marsh
Tree Island
Our classification of mangroves.
Mangrove
Marsh
Tree Island
SH1 in 1952
Our classification of mangroves.
1940, 1952, 1964, 1987 & 2004.
All fires.
Not much to burn:
Sparse Eleocharis and Cladium
SH1
Key West Sea Level and P35 Water Level
1920 2000 1980 1960 1940
Key West Sea Level: 1928 - 1940
1928 1940 1938 1936 1934 1932 1930
Key West Sea Level: 1941 - 2004
2001 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991
Compare rates of Key West SLR
1928 – 1940: Period of rapid mangrove expansion
KW SLR: 0.0006 m•yr-1
1941 – 2004: Period of little mangrove expansion
KW SLR: 0.0002 m•yr-1
Sea level rise had a pronounced effect
early, but not later, in the record.
A current emphasis of our work is
factoring in the role of soils in
ecotone dynamics
Sediment core from mangroves
Sediment core from sparse sawgrass
Andrew, 8/92
Freeze, 1/98
Fire, 8/01
Many factors acting at the mangrove – marsh
ecotones
Hard freezes in Jan & Dec 2010
What about future
climate change
impacts
???
Results from down-scaled, global
climate models, indicate that….
JJA
2040-2070
Down scaled
Temperature
From
CCSM3
HOTTER
JJA
2040-2070
Down
scaled
Fractional
Change in
Rainfall
CCSM3
DRYER
La Florida
becomes
El Desierto
??
Does
HOTTER
&
DRYER
=
More Fires ??
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS, con’t
R. Best: USGS, Greater Everglades PES, $$$
D. Beard & D. Willard: USGS, Climate Change Program, $$$
S. Howington: NPS, CESI program, $$$
C. Langtimm, D. DeAngelis, S. Jones, D. Krohn, A. Coffin:
USGS, discussion & very helpful comments
R. Anderson, T. Holland, D. Loveland, B. Panko, M. Vaidya:
NPS Fire Cache, fire data layers
K. Balentine, A. Garfield, U. Garfield, P. Nelson: USGS
contractors, GIS assistance
L. Stefanova & V. Misra, Florida State University, climate results