Fire research is about people... and so is economics inFIRE Conference Presentation Dr Ganesh Nana Chief Economist BERL 01 March 2012.

Fire research is about people

... and so is economics

inFIRE Conference Presentation

Dr Ganesh NanaChief Economist

BERL

01 March 2012

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Agenda

• introduction• question• overview of some research examples• review

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NZFS Commission• statutory duty

* promote fire safety* better work practices* effective rural fire management

• Contestable Research Fund (CRF)* supports research into better methods and

practices of fire safety

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BERL

• independent private business and economic consultancy

• have undertaken CRF research related to* promoting fire safety* improving NZFS operations* establishing costs of fires

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Research Methods• quantitative

* statistics, regressions, modelling

• practical* interviews, case studies, recommendations

• strategic* review and analysis of public policy, strategies,

regulations and legislation

• theoretical* literature reviews, metadata analysis

Is this a useful division for fire research?

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To promote fire safetye.g. alcohol and fire research

Approach• literature scan – what is happening elsewhere?• consult – what are others doing?• assess• recommend

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Living research e.g. alcohol and fire

• US – alcohol impairment contributing factor in home fire deaths

• UK – unintentional dwelling fires identified alcohol and intoxication as a risk factor

• Scotland – the Fire and Rescue Service recognised alcohol as a major social problem

• NZ – drinking patterns a major problem

AND many agencies sending messages aimed at reducing alcohol harm

don't drink and fry video

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Outcomee.g. alcohol and fire

Recommend NZFS consider its messages and efforts/role in areas

• technical* smoke detectors, alarms, built environment

• environmental* when fire occurs, in what setting, causes

• behavioural* education, advertising, government policy

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To promote fire safetye.g. the influence of demographics

Approach• review issues and establish questions to be

addressed• extract data – NZFS and Statistics NZ - what

can data tell us, and what does it not tell us?• assess, analyse and evaluate• select case study areas for closer inspection• confirm findings

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Living researche.g. the influence of demographics

• group rather than single factor• regression (data) analysis

* increase – density, gas as fuel, qualifications* decrease – separate dwellings, age (45-64)

• case studies

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Outcomee.g. the influence of demographics

Recommend NZFS tailor fire safety messages considering impacts of

• urban v rural population growth• increasing urban density• apartments v separate dwellings• gas as heating fuel• age and qualification characteristics of popn

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To improve NZFS operationse.g. composite performance measure

Approach• review – what happens now?• consult – what performance needs

measurement?• extract and analyse data – what can data tell

us, and what does it not tell us?• construct additional measures• propose

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Living research e.g. composite performance measure

• performance of NZFS assessed on outcomes

• state of capability and readiness not incorporated in current performance measures

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Outcome e.g. composite performance measure

NZFS consider modified composite performance measure* to combine measures of outputs measures

and of capability and readiness* is critical if appropriate level of capability

and readiness is to be encouraged (and funded)

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To improve NZFS operationse.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies

Approach• establish assessment framework• categorise studies and links to CRF purpose• identify links to NZFS strategic priority areas

and operational responsibilities• investigate outcomes of studies• determine contribution of CRF

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Living researche.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies

• over 100 research projects between 1998-2010

• common themes recurring through the years

• clear alignment* with CRF purpose* with NZFS strategic priority areas* with NZFS operation responsibilities

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Outcomee.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies

evidence that NZFS use CRF studies to improve fire outcomes

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To establish costs of fires e.g. costs of industrial fires

Approach• literature scan – what is happening elsewhere?• agree costing method• extract data – NZFS and Insurance Council

data• construct estimation model and populate• report results

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Living research e.g. costs of industrial fires

• impact on business activity* direct economic interruption* indirect impact on suppliers* effect on wider community

• impact on fire service* cost of operational readiness

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Outcomee.g. costs of industrial fires

evidence that improving fire outcomes closely related to operational readiness of NZFS

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To establish costs of fires e.g. value of statistical life (VoSL)

Approach• literature scan – what is happening elsewhere?• explore costing options• devise survey questions• undertake survey and assess responses• impute VoSL from responses• report results

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Living research e.g. value of statistical life (VoSL)

• is VoSL from fire event different VoSL from road accident event?

• perceptions of risk and of ‘personal control’ lie at heart of different values

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Outcomee.g. value of statistical life (VoSL)

NZFS consider adopting appropriate VoSL for Regulatory Impact Statements and relative assessments

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Quantitative, Practical, Theoretical or Strategic?

Project Area Q P S T

alcohol and fire promote fire safety

demographics promote fire safety

comp perf measure improve operations

metadata improve operations

VoSL fire costs

industrial fires fire costs