Finding Common Ground: Mutual US-Russian Concerns in Syria Presented by: Ekaterina Kozlova, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Elliott Cheresh, Johns Hopkins University Anton Natarov, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Darya Makarenko, The University of Alabama
Finding Common Ground: Mutual US-Russian Concerns in Syria
Feb 23, 2016
Presented by: Ekaterina Kozlova, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Elliott Cheresh, Johns Hopkins University Anton Natarov, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Darya Makarenko, The University of Alabama. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Finding Common Ground: Mutual US-Russian Concerns in Syria
Presented by:Ekaterina Kozlova, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University)Elliott Cheresh, Johns Hopkins University Anton Natarov, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University)Darya Makarenko, The University of Alabama
Background
~70,000 killed2.5-3 million
internally displaced
~1.2 million refugees
March 2011 - present
The Crisis Within the Syrian Borders
Supreme Kurdish Committee (SKC)
Prominent Actors in the Opposition
Kurdish Nation
al Council
KurdishDemocrati
c Union Party
Ebril Declaration
-Internally divided-Lacks genuine ground
presence-Detached from Kurdish
youth
-Internally cohesive-Has an established
presence-Rejects any type of foreign
intervention
National Coalition for Syrian and Opposition
Forces
Prominent Actors in the Revolution
SNC FSA
Al-Nusra Front
Other Opposition
Groups-Requests support without military intervention
-Has clear plan for role in transition
-Tension with FSA
-Inclusive militia of SA deserters
-Sees itself as secular protector of Syria -Alleged Al-Qaeda
links-Strong community
outreach-Co-opting
infrastructure to fund operations
The Suffering Economic Climate of Syria
GDP growth
3.2% in 2010
-3% in 2012
Investment
$14 bn in 2010
$10 bn in 2012
Unemployment
8.3 % in 2010
13.4 % in 2012
Inflation30% in
2012
4.8% in 2010
Syria and US-Russian Relations
Regional Security Concerns and International Implications
Sunni Extremists
Regional Security Concerns and International Implications
Chechen Fighters
Regional Security Concerns and International Implications
Insecurity
- Insurgency in the North Caucuses- Sunni Public Opinion
A strong stance is hard to convert into concrete influence
Moscow Perspective
NeutralStance
Recent ShiftSupport for
Assad
- Lack of secular replacement for Assad- Low legitimacy of opposition- Security Council Stalemate
US Perspective
Alternatives:
Tactical changes, strategic continuity
Room for compromise?
Key but “distant” players
CONCLUSIONPolicy Proposals
THANK YOU
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