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China in Latin America: Public Impressions and Policy Implications

China in Latin America: Public Impressions and Policy Implications

Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Associate Director of LAPOP & Associate Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University

Mitchell A. Seligson, Founder and Director of LAPOPCentennial Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University

Dinorah Azpuru, Wichita State University

Kang Liu, Duke University and Shanghai Jiaotong University, China

LAPOP and the AmericasBarometer

The

Sponsors of the AmericasBarometer

LAPOP Central at VanderbiltUnites a Consortium of Partners across the

Americas

The AmericasBarometer

2004 2012

2012: 26 countries

41,632 interviews(min. 1,500/country, with margins of error

+/- 2.5%)

2004-2012: 178,864 Interviews

Regional and Country Reports

Free Reports and Data Available OnlineDatasets and Data Analysis

World-wide free access made possible by support from the

Bolivia: Densely

populatedurban area

Nationally representative surveys, covering easy-to-access urban centers

Bolivia: Dispersedrural area

And, remote rural regions.

Pretesting in Guyana

The only regional survey using handheld computers, with software developed by academic partners in Costa Rica and Bolivia:

• Reduces data entry errors• Allows for multiple languages• Easily customized • Permits embedded experiments

Each Survey Round is Preceded by Extensive Training and Pre-testing (1,116 versions for 2012)

Pretesting in Honduras Pretesting in Costa Rica Pretesting in Mexico

Training in Nicaragua Training in Dominican Republic

The Importance of Extensive, In-Person Pretesting

Now we are going to talk about your views with respect to some countries. When we talk about “China” in this interview, we are talking about mainland China, the

People’s Republic of China, and not the island of Taiwan.

Some People Do Not Have Opinions about “Difficult” Foreign Affairs Questions

Some People Do Not Have Opinions about “Difficult” Foreign Affairs Questions

Which of the following countries has the most influence in Latin America/the Caribbean? Percent

Other 60.4%

China 20.1%

Don’t Know/Didn’t Respond 19.5%

Urban

Female

Age

Education

Wealth

Central America/Mexico

Caribbean

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

95% C.I. (Design-Effects Based)

Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012; dv=response=1, nr=0 (.a, .b) on for1; v47

F=137.113N =17336

Wealthier, More Educated, and Male Citizens Respond More to “Difficult” Foreign Affairs

Questions

Wealthier, More Educated, and Male Citizens Respond More to “Difficult” Foreign Affairs

Questions

Standardized Regression Coefficient

95% Confidence Interval

Increases Response Rate

— +Decreases Response Rate

Citizen Views on China in the Americas

Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Associate Director of LAPOP & Associate Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University

Mitchell A. Seligson, Founder and Director of LAPOPCentennial Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University

What Do Citizens of the Americas Think of China’s Influence in their

Region?


Region?

KEY POINTS:

• 20% view China as the most influential country

• 23% believe China will soon be the most influential

• Country average evaluations of China in the region range from neutral to positive

FOR1. … Which of the following countries has the

most influence in Latin America/the Caribbean?

(a) China; (b) Japan; (c) India; (d) U.S.; (e) Brazil; (f)

Venezuela; (g) Mexico; (h) Spain; (i) Other/DK

On average, one out of five (20%) of citizens in the Latin

American and Caribbean region believes CHINA is the

most the most influential country in the region.

9.9%

10.3%

10.4%

10.6%

10.9%

11.9%

14.4%

14.6%

15.6%

16.3%

16.4%

17.0%

19.7%

23.7%

24.0%

24.4%

25.5%

29.6%

32.8%

32.9%

36.7%

39.8%

Nicaragua

Colombia

Dom. Rep.

Guatemala

Haiti

El Salvador

Trinidad & Tobago

Uruguay

Paraguay

Argentina

Bolivia

Chile

Brazil

Mexico

Peru

Jamaica

Ecuador

Belize

Panama

Guyana

Venezuela

Costa Rica

0 10 20 30 40 50

China Has Most Influence in Region95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)

Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012; v47; 19% NR included in denominator

FOR4. And within 10 years, in your opinion, which of the

following countries will have most influence in Latin

America/the Caribbean?*

(a) China; (b) Japan; (c) India; (d) U.S.; (e) Brazil; (f)

Venezuela; (g) Mexico; (h) Spain; (i) Other/DK

*NR = 24%

On average, nearly one quarter (23%) of citizens in

the Latin American and Caribbean region believe

China will soon be most the most influential country in

the region.

10.3%

11.4%

12.1%

13.0%

14.7%

16.3%

16.7%

17.6%

19.5%

20.3%

21.4%

24.4%

24.5%

24.6%

25.8%

26.3%

27.3%

31.0%

32.7%

38.6%

46.9%

49.5%

Haiti

El Salvador

Guatemala

Paraguay

Nicaragua

Dom. Rep.

Colombia

Argentina

Brazil

Bolivia

Chile

Peru

Uruguay

Ecuador

Mexico

Belize

Trinidad & Tobago

Panama

Venezuela

Guyana

Jamaica

Costa Rica

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

China Will Have Most Influence95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)

Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012; v47; for4, recoded with 24% NR in denominator

p

FOR2/FOR3. And thinking of [China] and the influence it has

in Latin America/the Caribbean, do you think that

this influence is very positive, positive, negative or very

negative?

Questions answered on a 1-5 scale converted here to 0-100, where higher values are more

positive.

Excludes 2% who respond “no influence” and, as well, non-

respondents.

Average evaluations of China’s influence in the

region range from neutral to positive.

53.0

57.6

58.5

59.4

61.3

62.3

62.4

62.9

63.3

63.4

63.6

64.1

65.2

65.7

66.4

66.6

66.6

67.0

67.2

68.4

68.4

71.5

Mexico

Argentina

Uruguay

Bolivia

Ecuador

Colombia

Chile

El Salvador

Brazil

Guatemala

Peru

Dom. Rep.

Haiti

Belize

Paraguay

Trinidad & Tobago

Guyana

Nicaragua

Panama

Jamaica

Costa Rica

Venezuela

0 20 40 60 80

Evaluation of China's Influence95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)

Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012; v47; reversed for2/for3, "no influence" and NR excluded.

Yet, Brazil’s and Japan’s Influence in the Region is Viewed Somewhat Positively Than China’s*

Yet, Brazil’s and Japan’s Influence in the Region is Viewed Somewhat Positively Than China’s*

* Data reflect responses given only by those indicating that country as the most important regional influence. Excludes “no influence” and NR respondents.

FOR2. And thinking of [Country] and the influence it

has in Latin America/the Caribbean, do you think that

this influence is very positive, positive, negative or very

negative?

Variable is scaled from 0 to 100, where higher values

reflect more favorable mean evaluations.

71.4

70.2

68.4

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

Brazil Japan China

Mean Evaluation of Country's Influence, Regional Average


Country?


Country?

KEY POINTS:

• On average, China is seen as having “some” influence within respondents’ countries

• Yet, these perceptions vary significantly

• On average, relations with China are perceived to be growing closer

• Country average evaluations of China in the region range from neutral to positive

• Yet,, these perceptions vary significantly

FOR6. And thinking now only of our country, how much influence do you think that China has in our country?

Coded here so that 0=None; 33=A Little; 66=Some; 100= A Lot

Approximately 16% do not respond.

Regional average = 66.

52.9

53.7

55.9

57.3

57.8

58.2

61.7

62.3

62.9

63.8

64.6

65.8

65.8

67.0

67.0

69.2

69.6

70.2

74.5

75.6

81.8

82.5

Haiti

Bolivia

Guatemala

Colombia

Brazil

El Salvador

Chile

Ecuador

Argentina

Peru

Nicaragua

Belize

Paraguay

Trinidad & Tobago

Uruguay

Dom. Rep.

Mexico

Guyana

Panama

Jamaica

Costa Rica

Venezuela

0 20 40 60 80 100

Influence of China in our country95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)

Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP

Considering their country, on average individuals in Latin

America and the Caribbean perceive

China as having “SOME” influence.

On Average, Citizens in the Latin American and Caribbean Region Perceive Relations between their

Country and China to be Growing Closer

On Average, Citizens in the Latin American and Caribbean Region Perceive Relations between their

Country and China to be Growing Closer

Now I would like to ask you about the relations in general of our country with other nations around the world. When you think of our country’s relationship with [country], would you say that in the last 5 years our relationship has become

closer, more distant, or has it remained about the same, or do you not have an opinion?

Question answered on a 1-3 scale from “More distant” to ‘Closer”; converted here to -50 to 50.

-19.5

-19.3

-13.7

14.4

22.3

Trend With Israel

Trend With Iran

Trend With Russia

Trend With The United States

Trend With China

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based)Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP

Closer

MoreDistant

Considering their Country, on Average Citizens in the Latin American and Caribbean Region Have Positive

Evaluations of China’s Influence

Considering their Country, on Average Citizens in the Latin American and Caribbean Region Have Positive

Evaluations of China’s Influence

FOR7. In general, the influence that China has

on our country is very positive, positive, neither

positive nor negative, negative, very negative?

Coded so that “Very positive and positive”,

“Very negative and negative” are combined.

Excludes NR=4.5%

(Very) negative12.5%

Neutral23%

(Very) positive63%

No influence1%

Perceptions of China's Influence in the CountrySource: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP; v47; for7; not including NR

FOR7. In general, the influence that China has on our country is very

positive, positive, neither positive nor negative, negative, very

negative?

Question answered on a 1-5 scale from ‘Very positive” to ‘Very

negative’, converted here to 0-100. The chart shows means (not

percentages) where higher values indicate a more positive influence.

But, there is important variation across

countries and regions.

54.3

59.0

59.6

59.7

61.1

61.3

61.7

63.0

63.4

63.7

64.1

64.4

65.2

66.1

67.3

67.4

68.3

68.3

69.3

69.8

70.6

71.3

Mexico

Uruguay

Argentina

Bolivia

Ecuador

Chile

Guatemala

Colombia

Brazil

Belize

Peru

El Salvador

Guyana

Trinidad & Tobago

Panama

Nicaragua

Paraguay

Dom. Rep.

Costa Rica

Venezuela

Haiti

Jamaica

0 20 40 60 80

Evaluation of China's Influence in R's Country95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)

Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP; v47; "no influence" and NR not included.

FOR8. How much do you agree with the following statement: “Chinese

business contributes to the economic development of [country]?

Question answered on a 1-5 scale from ‘Strongly agree” to ‘Strongly

disagree’, converted here to 0-100. The chart shows means (not

percentages) where higher values indicate greater agreeableness.

51.4

52.5

55.5

56.8

58.4

59.1

59.2

59.7

60.5

61.4

62.3

62.7

63.0

63.4

65.8

66.1

66.5

67.3

67.3

70.1

70.3

Mexico

Argentina

Uruguay

Ecuador

Brazil

Colombia

Guatemala

Peru

Panama

Chile

Haiti

El Salvador

Guyana

Belize

Costa Rica

Venezuela

Paraguay

Trinidad & Tobago

Dom. Rep.

Nicaragua

Jamaica

0 20 40 60 80

Chinese business contributes to the economicdevelopment of the country

95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP

Average evaluations of the influence of

Chinese business on development are also moderately positive.

These evaluations also vary by country.

FOR5. In your opinion, which of the following

countries ought to be a model for the future development of our

country?

(a) China; (b) Japan; (c) India; (d) U.S.; (e) Brazil; (f) Venezuela; (g) Mexico*; (h)

Spain; (i) Other/DK

*Customized so that in these three countries, r’s own country was not

mentioned.

Considering their own country, only 16%, on average, select China

as the model for development.

8.1%

8.5%

10.4%

10.5%

10.8%

11.1%

12.0%

12.2%

12.3%

13.1%

15.3%

16.0%

16.2%

16.6%

16.7%

17.2%

17.9%

18.0%

24.3%

24.5%

32.7%

34.8%

Argentina

El Salvador

Guatemala

Haiti

Paraguay

Uruguay

Nicaragua

Dom. Rep.

Belize

Bolivia

Chile

Panama

Trinidad & Tobago

Colombia

Peru

Brazil

Mexico

Ecuador

Guyana

Venezuela

Jamaica

Costa Rica

0 10 20 30 40 50

China Ought to be Model for Future Development95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)

Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012; v47; for5 recoded with 19% NR in denominator.

Citizens’ Attitudes Toward Global Powers in

Comparative Perspective

Dinorah Azpuru, Ph.D., Wichita State UniversityMember of the Scientific Support Team at LAPOP

www. LapopSurveys.org

Comparing the perception of influence

China20.3%

United States40.8%

Other Countries or No Answer

38.9%


Which country has the most influencein Latin America and the Caribbean?

The U.S. is perceived as having more influence but mostly in the

non-ALBA countries.

Assessing the type of influence (average results across all 24 AmericasBarometer countries)

China United States

Positive influence: 68.2% China vs. 62.2% United States.

Figure shows results for respondents whose first choice inFOR1 was either China or the U.S.FOR2. And thinking of (__)_ and the influence it has in LatinAmerica/the Caribbean, do you think that this influence isvery positive, positive, negative or very negative?

Assessing the type of influence (only ALBA countries)

China United States

Positive influence: 67.6% China vs. 54.3% United States.

Future influence?(average results across all 24 AmericasBarometer countries)

China23.8%

United States30.2%

Other Countriesor No Answer

46.0%


Within 10 years which country will have the most influence?

Role models for development?(average results across all 24 AmericasBarometer countries)

Country Percentage

Japan 12.4%

Brazil 7.0 %

Venezuela 2.1 %

Mexico 1.7 %

Singapore 1.4 %

Russia 0.8 %

India 0.7 %

South Korea 0.6 %

Our own model 9.4 %

Other 1.8 %

No answer 18.3 %


Role models in ALBA countries: Venezuela is the only country in which China surpasses the U.S.


Trust in China and in the United States (percentage who think the government of that country is very or somewhat trustworthy)

22.6%

23.4%

23.6%

30.6%

37.0%

38.1%

39.8%

40.2%

44.7%

44.7%

45.4%

46.4%

48.7%

51.3%

52.5%

55.7%

57.6%

58.3%

62.9%

69.0%

69.0%

69.9%

71.4%

80.1%

Argentina

Uruguay

Venezuela

Belize

Bolivia

Chile

Suriname

Guatemala

Paraguay

Mexico

Nicaragua

Ecuador

Brazil

Peru

Colombia

Honduras

El Salvador

Costa Rica

Panama

Dom. Rep.

Jamaica

Haiti

Guyana

Trinidad & T.

0 20 40 60 80

Trust in the United States95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)


17.3%

22.6%

26.4%

27.0%

31.2%

31.5%

32.3%

32.3%

32.8%

33.0%

33.3%

34.6%

36.9%

38.3%

38.4%

40.3%

41.2%

43.2%

46.5%

49.0%

50.6%

51.5%

51.6%

58.7%

Suriname

Uruguay

El Salvador

Belize

Guatemala

Brazil

Mexico

Argentina

Colombia

Dom. Rep.

Bolivia

Haiti

Ecuador

Honduras

Paraguay

Peru

Nicaragua

Chile

Costa Rica

Jamaica

Venezuela

Guyana

Panama

Trinidad & T.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Trust in China95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)


Comparative Trust

Non-ALBA countries have more trust in the United States than in the other countries displayed in the chart.

ALBA countries have greater trust in China than in the USA.

China and the United States are the only countries that obtain an average higher than 40 points among both groups of countries.

-28.4

-15.7

-9.6

-8.2

-2.7

-1.1

-0.9

1.7

2.7

5.0

5.7

5.8

6.2

6.5

6.8

8.0

8.2

9.1

9.8

19.6

21.8

23.4

23.9

24.6

Venezuela

Argentina

Uruguay

Chile

Bolivia

Ecuador

Nicaragua

Peru

Paraguay

Mexico

Jamaica

Guatemala

Belize

Costa Rica

Trinidad & Tobago

Honduras

Panama

Colombia

Brazil

Guyana

Dom. Rep.

Suriname

El Salvador

Haiti

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP

Average Difference in Trust in US - Trust in China

Trust the US more than China

Trust in China more than the US

Relative levels of trust in the U.S. versus

China vary across the region.

Determinants of trust in China and the U.S.(across all 24 AmericasBarometer countries)

China United States

F=36.085N =14075

Educational Level

Woman

Quintiles of Wealth

Approval of President'sJob Performance

Attention to news

Ideology

Age

-0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20

95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based)Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP

Predictors of trust in China

F=23.093N =14075

Approval of President'sJob Performance

Educational Level

Age

Woman

Quintiles of Wealth

Attention to news

Ideology

-0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20

95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based)


Predictors of trust in the United States


Respondents who approve more highly of their president are more likely to trust China

31.3

36.0 36.939.5

43.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ave

rag

e tr

ust

in C

hin

a (s

cale

0-1

00)

Bad Good Very goodFair (neither)Very bad

Approval of President's Job Performance

Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 201295% Confidence Interval


Respondents who identify as being to the right of the political spectrum are more likely to

trust the United States

Some predictors of trust: women have lower trust in both countries

China United States

51.9

47.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ave

rag

e tr

ust

in t

he

Un

ite

d S

tate

s (0

-100

sca

le)

Men Women

Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012


41.6

34.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ave

rag

e tr

ust

in C

hin

a (0

-100

sc

ale

)

Men Women

Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012


China and the Latin American Public: Reflections on Public

Opinion Findings

Kang Liu, Ph.D. Duke University and Shanghai Jiaotong University, China

China in Latin America

Xi Jinping (2009) told overseas Chinese in Mexico: “China exports neither revolution, nor hunger and poverty, and never inflicts pains on others, how come some prickly foreigners always like to meddle in our business?”

China’s Latin American Policy: Distance, Caution, and Gradual Expansion

• 1960 China’s diplomatic breakthrough with Cuba

• Most Latin American countries remained diplomatic ties with Taiwan till late 1970s

• China’s non-interference foreign policy guided its relation with Latin America with distance and caution

• China’s ties with Central and South America are anchored in trade and driven by an insatiable hunger for natural resources. Trade between China and Latin America increased by 1,200% or from 10$ to 130$ billion dollars between 2000 and 2009. In 2007 China’s top 10 trade partners in the region were Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Peru, Venezuela, Panama, Colombia, Costa Rica and Cuba.

Latin America: Reaching Out to China

The world’s most populous nation is rapidly forming trade, investment, technology, security, and cultural ties with developing nations around the globe and in particular Latin America. Latin America is no longer content being the ‘backyard’ of the United States.

China invests with no conditions, but still doles out rewards for nations that drop recognition of Taiwan. For now, the links between China and Latin America are lopsided in many ways, with exports and imports, commodities and aid largely flowing in one-way directions. Likewise, Latin America has a severe lack of trade or diplomatic officials who speak Chinese. The increasing ties and influence build expectations that China can step forward in promoting solutions for an onslaught of global crises.

• Economic interaction is growing, but not the region’s knowledge about China

-----David Shambaugh, , director of the China Policy Program with George Washington University and also with the Brookings Institution.

17 November 2008

Preliminary Reflections on the Survey Data (I)

• Given the historical and geopolitical distance between China and Latin America, China's growing influence in the region is quite significant. The data shows a clear awareness of such influence with generally positive attitude.

• More positive views of China's influence than U.S. (slides 3) may suggest China's overall performance as a modernizing country, or formally a Third World, developing country, which is significant to Latin American public concerned about their own modernization.

• China's pragmatic and non-conflictual diplomacy (non-interference) works effectively in Latin America, compared to its role in other regions, particularly neighboring Asian-Pacific region. Moreover, China's expansion in Africa and its role in Middle East has been much more controversial than in Latin America, as it can be inferred from this public opinion survey in comparison with evidence of China's perception in other regions.

Preliminary Reflections on the Survey Data (II)

• Surprisingly China only trails the U.S. as a role model for Latin American development, overtaking Japan, Brazil and its own. (slide 33). The trust rate for China is also quite impressive, an indication of strong popular sentiment for alternative models of development rather than Brazil-Mexico pro-U.S. "free market" liberal model. (Latin American “dependency theory”)

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