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03.05.2013 Ticker: Fortum OYJ Benchmark: Currency: Helsinki: FUM1V, Currency: EUR OMXHCap (HEXP) Sector: Utilities Industry: Electric Utilities Year: Telephone 358-10-4511 Revenue (M) Business Segments in EUR Sales (M) Geographic Segments in EUR Sales (M) Website www.fortum.com No of Employees Power Generation 2119 Nordic 4641 Address P.O. Box 1 Espoo, 00048 Finland Heat 1610 Russia 1029 Share Price Performance in EUR Distribution 1033 Poland 220 Price 14.53 1M Return -4.8% Russian Operations 1030 Other European Countries 200 52 Week High 15.66 6M Return 5.3% Markets 667 Estonia 69 52 Week Low 12.02 52 Wk Return -4.9% Other 203 Sweden 52 Wk Beta 0.73 YTD Return 9.4% Netting of Nord Pool Transactions -503 Norway Credit Ratings Bloomberg IG5 S&P A- Date 27.11.2012 Outlook NEG Moody's A2 Date 15.07.2005 Outlook NEG Fitch A- Date 05.10.2009 Outlook NEG Valuation Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E P/E 12.8x 15.4x 8.3x 8.9x 11.2x 11.7x 11.2x EV/EBIT 12.8x 15.0x 12.4x 12.4x - - - EV/EBITDA 10.0x 11.5x 9.3x 8.9x 8.6x 8.6x 8.4x P/S 3.1x 3.2x 2.4x 2.0x 2.0x 2.0x 1.9x P/B 2.1x 2.4x 1.5x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x Div Yield 5.3% 4.4% 6.1% 7.1% 6.8% 6.7% 6.5% Profitability Ratios % 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Gross Margin - - - - 43.6 41.9 43.5 EBITDA Margin 42.9 38.0 38.9 38.3 38.6 37.5 37.3 Operating Margin 33.5 29.0 29.0 27.5 27.8 26.4 26.0 Profit Margin 24.1 20.6 28.7 22.9 18.1 17.2 17.3 Return on Assets 6.5 6.2 7.9 5.9 5.0 4.8 4.2 Return on Equity 16.4 16.0 19.8 14.2 11.1 10.4 10.2 Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 Current Ratio 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 Current Capitalization in EUR Quick Ratio 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.7 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 888.4 EBIT/Interest 7.6 9.3 6.3 5.7 Market Capitalization (M) 12908.0 Tot Debt/Capital 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 Cash and ST Investments (M) 1719.0 Tot Debt/Equity 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Total Debt (M) 9152.0 Eff Tax Rate % 17.4 16.2 16.4 4.6 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 667.0 Enterprise Value (M) 21008.0 Fortum Oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. The Company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat and steam, as well as the operation of power plants, and energy-related services. Fortum operates worldwide but mainly in Northern Europe. FUM1V FH 6'159 10'313 Company Analysis - Overview 31% 22% 14% 14% 9% 3% 7% Power Generation Heat Distribution Russian Operations Markets Other Netting of Nord Pool Transactions 75% 17% 4% 3%1% Nordic Russia Poland Other European Countries Estonia Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
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Financial analysis fortum oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. the company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and

Jan 20, 2015

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Page 1: Financial analysis fortum oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. the company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and

03.05.2013

Ticker: Fortum OYJ Benchmark:

Currency: Helsinki: FUM1V, Currency: EUR OMXHCap (HEXP)

Sector: Utilities Industry: Electric Utilities Year:

Telephone 358-10-4511 Revenue (M) Business Segments in EUR Sales (M) Geographic Segments in EUR Sales (M)

Website www.fortum.com No of Employees Power Generation 2119 Nordic 4641

Address P.O. Box 1 Espoo, 00048 Finland Heat 1610 Russia 1029

Share Price Performance in EUR Distribution 1033 Poland 220

Price 14.53 1M Return -4.8% Russian Operations 1030 Other European Countries 200

52 Week High 15.66 6M Return 5.3% Markets 667 Estonia 69

52 Week Low 12.02 52 Wk Return -4.9% Other 203 Sweden

52 Wk Beta 0.73 YTD Return 9.4% Netting of Nord Pool Transactions -503 Norway

Credit Ratings

Bloomberg IG5

S&P A- Date 27.11.2012 Outlook NEG

Moody's A2 Date 15.07.2005 Outlook NEG

Fitch A- Date 05.10.2009 Outlook NEG

Valuation Ratios

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

P/E 12.8x 15.4x 8.3x 8.9x 11.2x 11.7x 11.2x

EV/EBIT 12.8x 15.0x 12.4x 12.4x - - -

EV/EBITDA 10.0x 11.5x 9.3x 8.9x 8.6x 8.6x 8.4x

P/S 3.1x 3.2x 2.4x 2.0x 2.0x 2.0x 1.9x

P/B 2.1x 2.4x 1.5x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x

Div Yield 5.3% 4.4% 6.1% 7.1% 6.8% 6.7% 6.5%

Profitability Ratios %

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Gross Margin - - - - 43.6 41.9 43.5

EBITDA Margin 42.9 38.0 38.9 38.3 38.6 37.5 37.3

Operating Margin 33.5 29.0 29.0 27.5 27.8 26.4 26.0

Profit Margin 24.1 20.6 28.7 22.9 18.1 17.2 17.3

Return on Assets 6.5 6.2 7.9 5.9 5.0 4.8 4.2

Return on Equity 16.4 16.0 19.8 14.2 11.1 10.4 10.2

Leverage and Coverage Ratios

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12

Current Ratio 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 Current Capitalization in EUR

Quick Ratio 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.7 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 888.4

EBIT/Interest 7.6 9.3 6.3 5.7 Market Capitalization (M) 12908.0

Tot Debt/Capital 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 Cash and ST Investments (M) 1719.0

Tot Debt/Equity 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Total Debt (M) 9152.0

Eff Tax Rate % 17.4 16.2 16.4 4.6 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0

LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0

Investments (M) 667.0

Enterprise Value (M) 21008.0

Fortum Oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. The

Company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat

and steam, as well as the operation of power plants, and energy-related services.

Fortum operates worldwide but mainly in Northern Europe.

FUM1V FH

6'159

10'313

Company Analysis - Overview

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 2: Financial analysis fortum oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. the company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and

Fortum OYJ

Target price in EUR

Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date

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Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 3: Financial analysis fortum oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. the company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and

03.05.2013

Fortum OYJ

Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution

Shares Outstanding (M) 888.4 Finland 87.55%

Float United States 3.04%

Short Interest (M) Luxembourg 2.10%

Short Interest as % of Float Norway 1.22%

Days to Cover Shorts Sweden 1.20%

Institutional Ownership 68.42% Unknown Country 0.98%

Retail Ownership 31.55% Switzerland 0.80%

Insider Ownership 0.03% Others 3.11%

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Government 77.70%

Investment Advisor 12.93%

Insurance Company 5.49%

Other 2.14%

Pricing data is in EUR Others 1.74%

Top 20 Owners:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country

REPUBLIC OF FINLAND 450'932'988 0 6'552'056'316 50.76% 31.10.2012 Research FINLAND

ILMARINEN MUTUAL PEN 13'467'550 0 195'683'502 1.52% 31.10.2012 Research FINLAND

VARMA MUTUAL PENSION 8'324'300 0 120'952'079 0.94% 31.10.2012 Research FINLAND

FINLAND STATE PENSIO 7'268'387 0 105'609'663 0.82% 31.10.2012 Research FINLAND

SOCIAL INSUR INSTITU 7'195'896 0 104'556'369 0.81% 31.10.2012 Research FINLAND

BLACKROCK 6'511'764 -700 94'615'931 0.73% 01.05.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

CITY OF KURIKKA 6'203'500 0 90'136'855 0.70% 31.10.2012 Research FINLAND

MANDATUM LIFE INSURA 4'954'834 0 71'993'738 0.56% 31.10.2012 Research FINLAND

STATE STREET 4'874'884 23'704 70'832'065 0.55% 02.05.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

VANGUARD GROUP INC 4'864'048 -144'664 70'674'617 0.55% 31.03.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

PICTET ASSET MANAGEM 4'732'124 -630'470 68'757'762 0.53% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG BRITAIN

NORDEA INVESTMENT FU 4'540'294 -134'003 65'970'472 0.51% 28.03.2013 MF-AGG FINLAND

OPPENHEIMERFUNDS INC 3'359'544 0 48'814'174 0.38% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

DEUTSCHE BANK AG 3'081'997 -526'406 44'781'416 0.35% 31.03.2013 MF-AGG GERMANY

LOCAL GOVERNMENT PEN 2'951'403 0 42'883'886 0.33% 31.10.2012 Research FINLAND

ING INTERNATIONAL AD 2'829'932 273'154 41'118'912 0.32% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURG

SWISS NATIONAL BANK 2'669'409 0 38'786'513 0.30% 31.10.2012 Research SWITZERLAND

SOCIETY OF SWEDISH L 2'195'400 0 31'899'162 0.25% 31.10.2012 Research FINLAND

OP DELTA FUND 2'160'000 0 31'384'800 0.24% 31.10.2012 Research FINLAND

OP-FOCUS NON UCITS F 2'075'000 0 30'149'750 0.23% 31.10.2012 Research n/a

Top 5 Insiders:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source

KUULA TAPIO TEUVO 101'232 1'470'901 0.01% 31.12.2011 Co File

KARTTINEN TIMO 55'015 799'368 0.01% 31.12.2011 Co File

LAAKSONEN JUHA OLAVI 40'861 593'710 0.01% 31.12.2011 Co File

FRISK MIKAEL 28'473 413'713 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co File

LANGER PER 12'751 185'272 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co File

Company Analysis - Ownership

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 4: Financial analysis fortum oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. the company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and

Fortum OYJ

Financial information is in EUR (M)

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Income Statement

Revenue 11'148 11'392 3'835 3'877 4'491 4'479 5'636 5'435 6'296 6'161 6'159 6'344 6'470 6'698

- Cost of Goods Sold

Gross Income 2'766 2'708 2'914

- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 10'234 10'150 2'731 2'631 3'116 3'025 3'903 3'687 4'571 4'450 4'529

(Research & Dev Costs) 38 35 26 14 17 21 27 30 30 38 41

Operating Income 945 1'318 1'195 1'347 1'455 1'541 1'817 1'822 1'827 1'789 1'696 1'766 1'710 1'742

- Interest Expense 357 320 260 203 176 220 330 211 152 231 220

- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) -1 -1 -185 0 -2 -3

- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -419 -185 -27 -123 43 -613 -361 -22 60 -670 -99

Pretax Income 1'008 1'184 962 1'267 1'421 1'934 1'850 1'636 1'615 2'228 1'575 1'514 1'482 1'540

- Income Tax Expense 269 325 259 331 301 326 254 285 261 366 72

Income Before XO Items 739 859 703 936 1'120 1'608 1'596 1'351 1'354 1'862 1'503

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 -589 -474 0 0 0 0 0 0

- Minority Interests 73 90 33 52 49 56 54 39 54 93 94

Diluted EPS Before XO Items 0.78 1.00

Net Income Adjusted* 666 769 1'227 936 1'053 1'320 1'538 1'312 1'394 1'319 1'287 1'150 1'115 1'158

EPS Adjusted 0.79 0.91 1.44 1.09 1.20 1.48 1.73 1.48 1.57 1.48 1.45 1.29 1.25 1.30

Dividends Per Share 0.31 0.42 0.58 1.12 1.26 0.77 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.94

Payout Ratio % 39.4 46.3 75.5 110.9 104.5 44.2 57.6 67.7 68.3 50.2 63.0 0.77 0.78 0.73

Total Shares Outstanding 846 849 870 875 887 887 888 888 888 888 888

Diluted Shares Outstanding 851 859 862 888 887 891 888 888 888 888 888

EBITDA 1'613 1'842 1'583 1'754 1'884 1'992 2'332 2'332 2'390 2'395 2'360 2'446 2'429 2'496

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Equivalent Estimates

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

Fiscal Year

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 5: Financial analysis fortum oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. the company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Balance Sheet

Total Current Assets 3086 2390 2354 2055 1736 1886 3761 2549 2529 2788 2884

+ Cash & Near Cash Items 591 439 145 788 157 100 1'321 890 556 731 963

+ Short Term Investments 1 327

+ Accounts & Notes Receivable 1'281 951 1'047 716 1'052 840 849 784 943 689 914

+ Inventories 504 551 654 256 329 285 444 447 387 528 428

+ Other Current Assets 709 449 508 295 198 334 1'147 428 643 840 579

Total Long-Term Assets 14'874 14'172 15'213 13'075 15'103 15'788 16'517 17'292 19'435 20'210 21'744

+ Long Term Investments 121 124 1'296 1'104 781 835 742 918 1'149 1'196 1'384

Gross Fixed Assets 19'157 17'764 18'499 15'311 17'411 17'612 18'133 19'459 22'125 23'476 24'984

Accumulated Depreciation 6'445 6'132 6'574 5'135 5'940 6'269 5'995 6'604 7'504 8'242 8'487

+ Net Fixed Assets 12'712 11'632 11'925 10'176 11'471 11'343 12'138 12'855 14'621 15'234 16'497

+ Other Long Term Assets 2'041 2'416 1'992 1'795 2'851 3'610 3'637 3'519 3'665 3'780 3'863

Total Current Liabilities 3'934 2'688 2'466 2'048 1'568 1'763 2'090 2'133 3'384 2'438 2'649

+ Accounts Payable 689 449 570 262 844 272 343 317 435 443 558

+ Short Term Borrowings 2'134 1'225 790 828 442 605 980 857 862 925 1'078

+ Other Short Term Liabilities 1'111 1'014 1'106 958 282 886 767 959 2'087 1'070 1'013

Total Long Term Liabilities 6'698 7'236 7'451 5'671 7'110 7'260 9'777 9'217 9'838 10'399 11'158

+ Long Term Borrowings 4'306 4'840 4'450 3'118 4'060 4'288 6'520 6'002 6'520 6'845 7'699

+ Other Long Term Borrowings 2'392 2'396 3'001 2'553 3'050 2'972 3'257 3'215 3'318 3'554 3'459

Total Liabilities 10'632 9'924 9'917 7'719 8'678 9'023 11'867 11'350 13'222 12'837 13'807

+ Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Minority Interest 1'432 232 150 260 253 292 457 457 532 529 616

+ Share Capital & APIC 2'938 2'927 2'948 2'976 3'023 3'040 3'134 3'119 3'119 3'119 3'119

+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity 2'958 3'479 4'552 4'175 4'885 5'319 4'820 4'915 5'091 6'513 7'086

Total Shareholders Equity 7'328 6'638 7'650 7'411 8'161 8'651 8'411 8'491 8'742 10'161 10'821

Total Liabilities & Equity 17'960 16'562 17'567 15'130 16'839 17'674 20'278 19'841 21'964 22'998 24'628

Book Value Per Share 6.97 7.55 8.62 8.17 8.91 9.43 8.96 9.04 9.24 10.84 11.49 11.70 11.98 12.38

Tangible Book Value Per Share 6.77 7.38 8.49 8.08 8.80 9.33 8.52 8.60 8.77 10.35 10.99

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV

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Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Cash Flows

Net Income 666 769 1'259 1'358 1'071 1'552 1'542 1'312 1'300 1'769 1'409 1'143 1'102 1'142

+ Depreciation & Amortization 668 524 388 407 429 451 515 510 563 606 664

+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments 82 170 84 -268 -211 -384 47 423 -464 -863 -520

+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital 88 111 27 -93 -178 51 -102 19 38 101 -171

Cash From Operating Activities 1'504 1'574 1'758 1'404 1'111 1'670 2'002 2'264 1'437 1'613 1'382

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets 120 142 60 30 83 14 37 48 7 15 13

+ Capital Expenditures -649 -550 -335 -346 -485 -592 -1'018 -845 -1'134 -1'285 -1'422 -1'204 -1'037 -879

+ Increase in Investments -1 -27 0 -1 -21 -4 -1 -2

+ Decrease in Investments 7 9 4 11 1 29 0 1

+ Other Investing Activities -855 608 -465 1'063 -884 -56 -1'300 -176 25 445 281

Cash From Investing Activities -1'378 182 -736 757 -1'306 -609 -2'282 -974 -1'102 -825 -1'128

+ Dividends Paid -220 -264 -357 -506 -987 -1'122 -1'198 -888 -888 -888 -888

+ Change in Short Term Borrowings 605 -233 -265 -384 32 -37 551 -215 191 -278 168

+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings 804 1'622 319 28 1'263 942 5'550 2'168 924 951 1'375

+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -1'200 -1'788 -865 -706 -803 -417 -3'479 -2'711 -912 -365 -669

+ Increase in Capital Stocks 1 22 95 22 49 17 4 2

+ Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 -30 -175

+ Other Financing Activities 29 -1'267 -237 28 1 -108 -27 -25 -10 -33

Cash From Financing Activities 19 -1'908 -1'310 -1'518 -476 -791 1'320 -1'671 -710 -590 -47

Net Changes in Cash 145 -152 -288 643 -671 270 1'040 -381 -375 198 207

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 855 1'024 1'423 1'058 626 1'078 984 1'419 303 328 -40 681 727 921

Free Cash Flow To Firm 1'117 1'256 1'613 1'208 765 1'261 1'269 1'593 430 521 170

Free Cash Flow To Equity 1'184 767 672 26 1'201 1'580 3'643 709 513 651 847

Free Cash Flow per Share 1.01 1.21 1.67 1.21 0.71 1.21 1.11 1.60 0.34 0.37 -0.05

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV

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Page 7: Financial analysis fortum oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. the company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios

Price Earnings 7.9x 9.0x 17.3x 15.6x 17.7x 17.7x 8.8x 12.8x 15.4x 8.3x 8.9x 11.2x 11.7x 11.2x

EV to EBIT 13.3x 9.7x 14.3x 12.8x 16.3x 20.8x 11.1x 12.8x 15.0x 12.4x 12.4x

EV to EBITDA 7.8x 6.9x 10.8x 9.9x 12.6x 16.1x 8.6x 10.0x 11.5x 9.3x 8.9x 8.6x 8.6x 8.4x

Price to Sales 0.5x 0.6x 3.0x 3.6x 4.2x 6.1x 2.4x 3.1x 3.2x 2.4x 2.0x 2.0x 2.0x 1.9x

Price to Book 0.9x 1.1x 1.6x 1.9x 2.4x 3.3x 1.7x 2.1x 2.4x 1.5x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x

Dividend Yield 5.0% 5.1% 4.3% 7.1% 5.8% 2.5% 6.6% 5.3% 4.4% 6.1% 7.1% 6.8% 6.7% 6.5%

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 43.6% 41.9% 43.5%

EBITDA Margin 14.5% 16.2% 41.3% 45.2% 42.0% 44.5% 41.4% 42.9% 38.0% 38.9% 38.3% 38.6% 37.5% 37.3%

Operating Margin 8.5% 11.6% 31.2% 34.7% 32.4% 34.4% 32.2% 33.5% 29.0% 29.0% 27.5% 27.8% 26.4% 26.0%

Profit Margin 6.0% 6.8% 32.8% 35.0% 23.8% 34.7% 27.4% 24.1% 20.6% 28.7% 22.9% 18.1% 17.2% 17.3%

Return on Assets 4.1% 4.5% 7.4% 8.3% 6.7% 9.0% 8.1% 6.5% 6.2% 7.9% 5.9% 5.0% 4.8% 4.2%

Return on Equity 11.7% 12.5% 18.1% 18.5% 14.2% 19.1% 18.9% 16.4% 16.0% 19.8% 14.2% 11.1% 10.4% 10.2%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios

Current Ratio 0.78 0.89 0.95 1.00 1.11 1.07 1.80 1.20 0.75 1.14 1.09

Quick Ratio 0.48 0.52 0.48 0.73 0.77 0.72 1.04 0.78 0.44 0.58 0.71

Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 2.63 4.12 4.60 6.64 8.27 7.00 5.18 7.56 9.27 6.30 5.65

Tot Debt/Capital 0.47 0.48 0.41 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.47 0.45 0.46 0.43 0.45

Tot Debt/Equity 0.88 0.91 0.68 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.89 0.81 0.84 0.76 0.81

Others

Asset Turnover 0.69 0.66 0.22 0.24 0.28 0.26 0.30 0.27 0.30 0.27 0.26

Accounts Receivable Turnover 9.37 10.21 3.84 4.40 5.08 4.73 6.67 6.66 7.29 7.55 7.68

Accounts Payable Turnover

Inventory Turnover

Effective Tax Rate 26.7% 27.4% 26.9% 26.1% 21.2% 16.9% 13.7% 17.4% 16.2% 16.4% 4.6%

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 8: Financial analysis fortum oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. the company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and

FORTUM OYJ E.ON SE RWE AG EDF GDF SUEZALPIQ HOLDIN-

REGENEL SPA

VEOLIA

ENVIRONNEVERBUND AG DRAX GROUP PLC AES CORP NATIONAL GRID PL CENTRICA PLC SSE PLC UNITED UTILITIES

12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 03/2012 12/2012 03/2012 03/2012

16.69 19.80 36.47 17.91 20.35 160.53 3.30 11.10 21.49 660.50 13.98 828.00 394.30 1'575.00 816.00

08.05.2012 14.09.2012 12.09.2012 03.07.2012 21.08.2012 07.05.2012 14.01.2013 04.05.2012 03.05.2012 20.02.2013 03.05.2013 02.05.2013 23.04.2013 03.05.2013 14.08.2012

12.81 12.42 25.83 13.39 14.05 102.73 2.02 7.38 14.50 390.00 9.52 636.00 301.20 1'286.00 617.50

23.07.2012 08.02.2013 19.04.2013 29.11.2012 01.03.2013 14.02.2013 24.07.2012 16.11.2012 25.07.2012 25.07.2012 14.11.2012 25.07.2012 22.06.2012 25.07.2012 21.05.2012

2'859'551 13'805'210 2'227'976 2'094'980 3'340'397 6'903 20'827'018 5'111'028 149'497 142'171 503'763 2'276'433 4'044'482 640'795 1'354'891

14.52 13.98 27.72 17.84 16.66 118.00 2.95 10.61 16.25 622.00 13.97 826.00 377.30 1'571.00 745.00

-13.0% -29.4% -24.0% -0.4% -18.2% -26.5% -10.5% -4.4% -24.4% -5.8% -0.1% -0.2% -4.3% -0.3% -8.7%

13.3% 12.5% 7.3% 33.2% 18.5% 14.9% 46.1% 43.8% 12.1% 59.5% 46.7% 29.9% 25.3% 22.2% 20.6%

888.4 1'906.8 614.7 1'846.7 2'357.3 27.2 9'403.4 507.8 347.4 401.6 744.3 3'701.0 5'199.0 944.7 681.8

12'899 27'964 16'991 32'975 40'186 3'208 27'759 5'539 5'646 2'500 10'415 30'292 19'573 15'150 5'080

8'777.0 25'944.0 19'946.0 64'501.0 57'552.0 5'270.0 66'539.0 17'001.6 4'321.1 90.7 21'373.0 23'025.0 5'328.0 6'245.6 5'855.2

- - - - - - - - - - 78.0 - - - -

616.0 3'862.0 1'613.0 4'854.0 11'462.0 106.0 16'387.0 1'973.6 641.0 - 2'945.0 7.0 - - -

963.0 6'097.0 5'276.0 22'307.0 11'383.0 1'359.0 9'891.0 5'547.8 121.7 401.7 2'666.0 2'723.0 938.0 189.2 321.2

20'999 51'673 33'274 80'023 97'817 7'225 100'794 18'967 10'456 2'189 32'145 51'227 23'963 20'396 10'907

LFY 6'159.0 132'093.0 50'771.0 72'729.0 97'038.0 12'710.0 82'699.0 29'438.5 3'174.3 1'779.8 18'141.0 13'832.0 23'942.0 31'723.9 1'564.9

LTM 6'249.0 132'093.0 50'771.0 72'729.0 97'038.0 12'710.0 82'699.0 29'438.5 3'198.8 1'779.8 18'159.0 13'605.0 23'942.0 31'337.3 1'595.1

CY+1 6'344.3 111'418.7 53'546.9 73'749.5 81'162.0 10'925.5 81'744.2 25'737.4 3'271.5 1'868.2 18'518.2 14'417.8 24'542.4 31'332.2 1'644.4

CY+2 6'470.1 112'638.7 53'803.9 75'979.2 81'900.2 10'724.5 82'556.8 25'914.5 3'175.8 2'138.0 19'017.8 15'066.6 25'538.9 31'732.5 1'699.0

LFY 3.6x 0.4x 0.7x 1.0x 1.0x 0.6x 1.2x 0.6x 3.4x 1.1x 1.6x 3.3x 0.9x 0.6x 6.8x

LTM 3.5x 0.4x 0.7x 1.0x 1.0x 0.6x 1.2x 0.6x 3.3x 1.1x 1.6x 3.4x 0.9x 0.6x 6.7x

CY+1 3.4x 0.5x 0.6x 1.1x 1.1x 0.6x 1.1x 0.7x 3.1x 1.3x 1.7x 3.6x 1.0x 0.7x 6.5x

CY+2 3.3x 0.4x 0.6x 1.1x 1.0x 0.5x 1.0x 0.6x 3.2x 1.2x 1.6x 3.5x 0.9x 0.7x 6.4x

LFY 2'360.0 8'443.0 9'055.0 14'342.0 18'401.0 1'200.0 16'150.0 2'684.9 1'228.2 298.4 4'807.0 4'777.0 3'698.0 1'946.8 900.0

LTM 2'413.0 8'443.0 9'201.0 14'342.0 18'401.0 1'200.0 16'150.0 2'684.9 1'211.8 298.4 4'807.0 4'991.0 3'698.0 2'073.9 905.1

CY+1 2'446.0 9'554.8 8'828.3 15'982.1 13'786.8 800.0 16'053.9 2'213.2 1'136.3 200.5 5'011.5 5'042.9 3'965.5 2'208.6 980.8

CY+2 2'428.7 9'754.7 8'597.0 17'030.6 13'928.0 714.5 16'053.2 2'294.5 1'035.4 245.5 5'271.0 5'419.3 4'200.6 2'356.2 1'021.8

LFY 9.3x 6.0x 3.9x 5.1x 5.1x 6.3x 6.3x 6.7x 8.7x 6.3x 6.2x 9.6x 5.9x 9.5x 11.9x

LTM 9.1x 6.0x 3.9x 5.1x 5.1x 6.3x 6.3x 6.7x 8.8x 6.3x 6.2x 9.2x 5.9x 9.0x 11.8x

CY+1 8.8x 5.3x 3.9x 5.0x 6.2x 7.5x 5.4x 7.6x 9.0x 12.2x 6.4x 10.2x 6.1x 10.0x 10.9x

CY+2 8.8x 5.2x 4.0x 4.8x 6.0x 8.2x 5.1x 7.3x 9.9x 10.5x 6.0x 9.8x 5.6x 9.6x 10.7x

LFY - 1.81 1.95 2.06 1.33 -38.43 0.09 0.01 1.10 0.44 1.24 0.51 0.26 1.29 0.47

LTM 1.48 1.14 2.13 1.80 0.71 -38.43 0.09 0.02 1.00 0.44 -1.21 0.64 0.25 0.25 0.48

CY+1 1.29 1.32 3.89 1.74 1.36 9.13 0.33 0.46 1.02 0.25 1.28 0.54 0.28 1.14 0.39

CY+2 1.25 1.39 3.48 1.92 1.42 8.18 0.34 0.64 0.96 0.30 1.37 0.56 0.30 1.18 0.41

LFY 9.8x 12.3x 13.0x 9.9x 23.4x - 32.1x 589.1x 16.3x 14.1x - 13.0x 15.3x 63.9x 15.7x

LTM - 7.7x 13.0x 9.9x 12.5x - - - 16.5x 14.2x - 15.2x 14.5x 14.3x 15.2x

CY+1 11.2x 10.6x 7.1x 10.3x 12.3x 12.9x 9.0x 23.0x 15.9x 25.4x 10.9x 15.3x 13.6x 13.8x 19.0x

CY+2 11.7x 10.1x 8.0x 9.3x 11.7x 14.4x 8.8x 16.5x 16.9x 20.6x 10.2x 14.9x 12.7x 13.3x 18.1x

1 Year (0.0%) 16.9% 3.3% 11.4% 7.0% (9.0%) 6.6% 3.0% 4.8% (3.1%) 7.2% (3.6%) 4.9% 12.0% 3.4%

5 Year 7.1% 16.4% 4.1% 6.1% 7.2% (0.5%) 9.1% (2.9%) (0.1%) 11.2% 6.6% 8.6% 10.5% 18.0% (5.1%)

1 Year (1.5%) 97.8% 9.3% 1.7% 14.5% 28.1% (5.6%) 5.9% 26.6% (10.6%) (2.6%) (1.4%) 11.7% 4.9% 0.0%

5 Year 3.4% (5.3%) 3.1% (1.7%) 20.7% 0.2% 10.7% (6.3%) 2.3% (10.0%) 4.0% 7.5% 8.1% 5.7% 0.9%

LTM 38.6% 6.4% 18.1% 19.7% 19.0% 9.4% 19.5% 9.1% 37.9% 16.8% 26.5% 36.7% 15.4% 6.6% 56.7%

CY+1 38.6% 8.6% 16.5% 21.7% 17.0% 7.3% 19.6% 8.6% 34.7% 10.7% 27.1% 35.0% 16.2% 7.0% 59.6%

CY+2 37.5% 8.7% 16.0% 22.4% 17.0% 6.7% 19.4% 8.9% 32.6% 11.5% 27.7% 36.0% 16.4% 7.4% 60.1%

Total Debt / Equity % 86.0% 74.2% 134.6% 249.4% 96.3% 107.5% 181.0% 237.7% 96.9% 6.1% 467.8% 249.2% 89.9% 136.2% 331.8%

Total Debt / Capital % 44.8% 40.1% 54.8% 67.7% 44.7% 51.3% 55.6% 65.1% 45.9% 5.8% 73.8% 71.3% 47.3% 57.7% 76.8%

Total Debt / EBITDA 3.793x 3.073x 2.168x 4.497x 3.128x 4.392x 4.120x 6.332x 3.510x 0.304x 4.446x 4.830x 1.441x 2.961x 6.606x

Net Debt / EBITDA 3.080x 2.351x 1.594x 2.942x 2.509x 3.259x 3.508x 4.266x 3.424x -1.042x 3.892x 4.193x 1.187x 2.530x 6.438x

EBITDA / Int. Expense 7.867x 2.900x 7.250x 5.871x 7.199x 6.218x 5.508x 3.201x 6.094x 19.503x 2.856x 2.040x 7.441x 3.881x 2.853x

S&P LT Credit Rating A- A- BBB+ A+ A *- - BBB+ BBB+ A- - BB- A- A- A- -

S&P LT Credit Rating Date 27.11.2012 27.07.2012 27.07.2012 17.01.2012 29.01.2013 - 08.03.2012 24.11.2000 21.09.2009 - 17.05.2011 24.08.2007 29.05.2009 21.08.2009 -

Moody's LT Credit Rating A2 A3 A3 Aa3 A1 - Baa2 Baa1 A3 - Ba3 Baa1 A3 A3 -

Moody's LT Credit Rating Date 15.07.2005 05.10.2011 19.07.2011 14.01.2009 03.07.2012 - 05.11.2012 07.02.2012 12.04.2013 - 28.11.2011 12.01.2007 21.06.2006 22.09.2009 -

52-Week High Date

52-Week Low

Latest Fiscal Year:

52-Week High

Total Debt

Market Capitalization

Daily Volume

52-Week Low % Change

Current Price (5/dd/yy)

52-Week High % Change

Cash and Equivalents

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

Enterprise Value

Valuation

Preferred Stock

52-Week Low Date

Minority Interest

Total Common Shares (M)

P/E

Revenue Growth

Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EPS

EBITDA Growth

EBITDA Margin

Credit Ratings

Leverage/Coverage Ratios

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision

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