Financial Analysis - Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCV) attracts deposits and offers retail, private, and corporate banking services

24.04.2013

Ticker: Banque Cantonale Vaudoise Benchmark:

Currency: SIX Swiss Ex: BCVN, Currency: CHF SWISS MARKET INDEX (SMI)

Sector: Financials Industry: Commercial Banks Year:

Telephone 41-21-212-1000 Revenue (M) Business Segments in CHF Sales (M) Geographic Segments in CHF Sales (M)

Website www.bcv.ch No of Employees Wealth Management 368 Switzerland 1

Address Place Saint-Francois 14 Case postale 300 Lausanne, 1001 Switzerland Corporate Banking 287 Rest of the World

Share Price Performance in CHF Retail Banking 214

Price 555.50 1M Return 5.4% Corporate Center 86

52 Week High 558.50 6M Return 11.8% Trading 62

52 Week Low 457.25 52 Wk Return 16.0%

52 Wk Beta 0.55 YTD Return 14.6%

Credit Ratings

Bloomberg IG2

S&P AA Date 05.12.2011 Outlook NEG

Moody's - Date - Outlook STABLE

Fitch - Date - Outlook -

Valuation Ratios

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

P/E 11.8x 13.5x 13.0x 13.4x 15.6x 15.3x 14.8x

EV/EBIT - - - - - - -

EV/EBITDA - - - - - - -

P/S 2.6x 3.1x 2.9x 3.2x 4.7x 4.6x 4.5x

P/B 1.4x 1.7x 1.5x 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x 1.4x

Div Yield 5.1% 4.5% 7.0% 6.6% 5.8% 5.9% 6.0%

Profitability Ratios %

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Gross Margin - - - - - - -

EBITDA Margin - - - - - - -

Operating Margin 35.0 36.5 34.5 36.5 51.8 53.2 51.4

Profit Margin 28.8 29.1 27.7 29.1 29.9 30.2 29.9

Return on Assets 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

Return on Equity 12.1 12.4 11.8 12.0 9.2 9.2 9.3

Leverage and Coverage Ratios

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12

Current Ratio - - - - Current Capitalization in CHF

Quick Ratio - - - - Common Shares Outstanding (M) 8.6

EBIT/Interest - - - - Market Capitalization (M) 4780.7

Tot Debt/Capital 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 Cash and ST Investments (M) 6738.0

Tot Debt/Equity 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.2 Total Debt (M) 8850.0

Eff Tax Rate % 22.6 22.9 23.0 22.8 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0

LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0

Investments (M) 20.0

Enterprise Value (M) 6912.7

Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCV) attracts deposits and offers retail, private, and

corporate banking services. The Bank offers consumer loans, treasury management,

pension funds, and investment management services, trades in commodities, advises

on mergers and acquisitions, and offers securities brokerage services. BCV operates

primarily in the Canton of Vaud.

BCVN SW

1'321

1'967

Company Analysis - Overview

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Banque Cantonale Vaudoise

Target price in CHF

Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date

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Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

24.04.2013

Banque Cantonale Vaudoise

Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution

Shares Outstanding (M) 8.6 Switzerland 93.85%

Float 32.7% United States 2.71%

Short Interest (M) Luxembourg 1.51%

Short Interest as % of Float Britain 0.75%

Days to Cover Shorts Unknown Country 0.46%

Institutional Ownership 74.16% France 0.14%

Retail Ownership 25.49% Germany 0.13%

Insider Ownership 0.34% Others 0.45%

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Government 89.92%

Investment Advisor 9.14%

Individual 0.46%

Pension Fund (Erisa) 0.38%

Pricing data is in CHF Others 0.09%

Top 20 Owners:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country

CANTON OF VAUD 5'766'154 0 3'203'098'547 67.00% 31.12.2012 Co File SWITZERLAND

UBS FUND MANAGEMENT 95'138 -3'124 52'849'159 1.11% 28.12.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND

CREDIT SUISSE ASSET 45'974 1'239 25'538'557 0.53% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND

THORNBURG INVESTMENT 44'400 0 24'664'200 0.52% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

BLACKROCK 39'998 -15'064 22'218'889 0.46% 22.04.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

VANGUARD GROUP INC 32'991 3'966 18'326'501 0.38% 31.03.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

SWISSCANTO FONDSLEIT 28'924 -22'010 16'067'282 0.34% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND

SCHRODER INVESTMENT 24'900 6'305 13'831'950 0.29% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG BRITAIN

NEW JERSEY DIVISION 24'618 0 13'675'299 0.29% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

PICTET & CIE 23'928 399 13'292'004 0.28% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND

ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGE 20'887 -1'855 11'602'729 0.24% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG GERMANY

VONTOBEL ASSET MANAG 20'400 750 11'332'200 0.24% 28.12.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND

BNP PARIBAS INV PART 18'003 -462 10'000'667 0.21% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG FRANCE

JUPITER ASSET MANAGE 17'256 -8'913 9'585'708 0.20% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG BRITAIN

SCHRODER INVESTMENT 16'170 0 8'982'435 0.19% 28.09.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND

PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL 14'918 4'605 8'286'949 0.17% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

BARING FUND MANAGERS 12'574 0 6'984'857 0.15% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG BRITAIN

SARASIN 9'201 0 5'111'156 0.11% 28.12.2012 ULT-AGG

KIENER PASCAL 8'355 0 4'641'203 0.10% 31.12.2012 Co File n/a

STEIMER OLIVIER 8'074 0 4'485'107 0.09% 31.12.2012 Co File n/a

Top 5 Insiders:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source

KIENER PASCAL 8'355 4'641'203 0.10% 31.12.2012 Co File

STEIMER OLIVIER 8'074 4'485'107 0.09% 31.12.2012 Co File

SAGER BERTRAND 2'042 1'134'331 0.02% 31.12.2012 Co File

BICHSEL STEFAN 1'908 1'059'894 0.02% 31.12.2012 Co File

PAULSEN THOMAS W 1'738 965'459 0.02% 31.12.2012 Co File

Company Analysis - Ownership

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Banque Cantonale Vaudoise

Financial information is in CHF (M)

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Income Statement

Revenue 1'604 1'516 1'438 1'499 1'590 1'727 1'566 1'371 1'352 1'352 1'321 1'026 1'036 1'074

- Cost of Goods Sold

Gross Income

- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 856 732 674 643 656 645 589 590 608 622 611

(Research & Dev Costs)

Operating Income -977 156 427 378 433 429 325 365 393 377 391 531 551 552

- Interest Expense

- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)

- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -36 -18 -12 -210 -247 -287 -134 -24 -14 -14 -12

Pretax Income -1'192 174 359 477 558 576 459 390 407 391 403 406 416 425

- Income Tax Expense 8 17 22 20 23 99 101 88 93 90 92

Income Before XO Items -1'200 157 337 457 534 477 358 301 314 301 311

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- Minority Interests 0 3 2 3 4 4 1 1 1 -1 0

Diluted EPS Before XO Items 41.40 34.93 36.39 35.10 36.14

Net Income Adjusted* -1'200 154 335 356 410 473 330 279 313 302 304 307 313 322

EPS Adjusted (141.39) 6.98 39.31 41.36 47.85 55.28 38.39 32.41 36.39 35.10 35.28 35.68 36.28 37.43

Dividends Per Share 0.00 2.00 3.00 4.50 7.00 14.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 32.00 32.00 32.00 32.60 33.20

Payout Ratio % 40.4 7.6 8.5 11.4 25.5 48.3 60.1 60.4 91.2 88.6 0.90 0.90 0.89

Total Shares Outstanding 8 22 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Diluted Shares Outstanding 9 9 9 9 9

EBITDA

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Equivalent Estimates

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

Fiscal Year

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Balance Sheet

Total Current Assets

+ Cash & Near Cash Items 399 368 400 282 321 353 546 1'404 388 1'711 4'735

+ Short Term Investments 1'142 1'360 1'489 1'806 2'116 2'146 702 485 2'413 601 693

+ Accounts & Notes Receivable

+ Inventories

+ Other Current Assets

Total Long-Term Assets

+ Long Term Investments 1'508 1'539 1'573 1'697 1'669 1'671 1'634 2'951 2'966 2'975 3'153

Gross Fixed Assets

Accumulated Depreciation

+ Net Fixed Assets 424 410 392 381 365 286 283 597 588 628 621

+ Other Long Term Assets 3'373 2'714 2'413 4'244 1'857 2'037 1'897 515 710 895 633

Total Current Liabilities

+ Accounts Payable

+ Short Term Borrowings 3'318 2'987 2'458 3'554 2'091 2'477 2'361 2'243 1'994 2'749 2'447

+ Other Short Term Liabilities 2'250 2'130 1'854 4'925 2'336 2'084 1'592 926 974 944 867

Total Long Term Liabilities

+ Long Term Borrowings 9'255 7'628 6'331 5'475 6'684 6'938 6'508 5'937 5'582 5'202 5'968

+ Other Long Term Borrowings 254 253 332 484 628 765 1'076 704 704 704 704

Total Liabilities 31'618 29'789 27'950 32'088 30'176 32'816 33'138 33'215 33'018 35'306 37'189

+ Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Minority Interest 20 21 14 15 14 15 13 14 14 20 1

+ Share Capital & APIC 1'695 1'714 1'722 1'596 1'345 891 613 529 445 446 361

+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity -814 575 853 1'176 1'495 1'615 1'847 1'975 2'108 2'131 2'249

Total Shareholders Equity 901 2'310 2'588 2'787 2'855 2'521 2'473 2'518 2'567 2'597 2'611

Total Liabilities & Equity 32'519 32'098 30'537 34'875 33'031 35'337 35'611 35'733 35'585 37'903 39'800

Book Value Per Share 103.78 104.24 304.18 325.40 331.73 291.80 286.37 291.49 297.12 300.04 303.28 405.89 412.44 399.31

Tangible Book Value Per Share 89.84 100.82 293.24 314.24 329.80 290.44 285.73 290.95 296.69 295.97 298.98

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Cash Flows

Net Income -1'200 154 335 454 530 473 356 301 313 302 311 308 313 320

+ Depreciation & Amortization 1'357 262 1 -77 -110 -175 35 102 58 98

+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments 224 -9 82 119 130 144 3 -1 2 -1

+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital -34 6 -6 -30 1 85 -79 -11 25 -22

Cash From Operating Activities 347 413 412 467 551 527 315 391 397 377

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets

+ Capital Expenditures

+ Increase in Investments

+ Decrease in Investments

+ Other Investing Activities

Cash From Investing Activities

+ Dividends Paid -121

+ Change in Short Term Borrowings

+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings

+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings

+ Increase in Capital Stocks

+ Decrease in Capital Stocks

+ Other Financing Activities

Cash From Financing Activities -121

Net Changes in Cash

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 347 413 412 467 525 498 304 379 377 353

Free Cash Flow To Firm

Free Cash Flow To Equity

Free Cash Flow per Share 40.87 18.71 48.33 54.50 61.09 57.90 35.34 43.99 43.77 41.02

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios

Price Earnings 20.2x 5.2x 7.1x 12.2x 12.8x 7.7x 11.8x 13.5x 13.0x 13.4x 15.6x 15.3x 14.8x

EV to EBIT

EV to EBITDA

Price to Sales 0.4x 2.1x 1.2x 2.2x 3.2x 2.5x 1.7x 2.6x 3.1x 2.9x 3.2x 4.7x 4.6x 4.5x

Price to Book 0.8x 1.4x 0.7x 1.2x 1.8x 1.7x 1.1x 1.4x 1.7x 1.5x 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x 1.4x

Dividend Yield 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 2.8% 6.3% 5.1% 4.5% 7.0% 6.6% 5.8% 5.9% 6.0%

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin

EBITDA Margin - - -

Operating Margin -103.7% 15.3% 41.7% 33.9% 36.8% 36.7% 32.4% 35.0% 36.5% 34.5% 36.5% 51.8% 53.2% 51.4%

Profit Margin -127.3% 15.1% 32.7% 40.8% 45.1% 40.5% 35.5% 28.8% 29.1% 27.7% 29.1% 29.9% 30.2% 29.9%

Return on Assets -3.6% 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

Return on Equity -104.4% 9.7% 13.8% 17.0% 18.9% 17.7% 14.3% 12.1% 12.4% 11.8% 12.0% 9.2% 9.2% 9.3%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios

Current Ratio

Quick Ratio

Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)

Tot Debt/Capital 0.93 0.82 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.79 0.78 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.76

Tot Debt/Equity 13.95 4.60 3.40 3.24 3.07 3.73 3.59 3.25 2.95 3.06 3.22

Others

Asset Turnover 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03

Accounts Receivable Turnover

Accounts Payable Turnover

Inventory Turnover

Effective Tax Rate 9.6% 6.1% 4.3% 4.2% 17.1% 22.1% 22.6% 22.9% 23.0% 22.8%

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

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12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012

558.50 27.85 16.39 28.35 17.17 33.40 414.00 13.25 133.00 40.40 239.40 37.71 88.00

12.04.2013 07.02.2013 25.01.2013 05.10.2012 07.03.2013 25.02.2013 15.03.2013 12.03.2013 11.03.2013 15.05.2012 24.04.2013 14.03.2013 05.03.2013

457.25 15.97 9.69 24.50 9.60 17.80 320.75 4.77 85.00 25.50 157.20 28.86 60.00

15.05.2012 03.08.2012 24.07.2012 08.10.2012 25.05.2012 28.06.2012 21.05.2012 24.07.2012 26.07.2012 16.11.2012 04.06.2012 06.06.2012 21.11.2012

1'302 3'914'836 5'860'642 1'263 117'581 27'531 251 7'814 355 6'635 16'575 112'668 2'632

555.50 26.42 15.40 26.60 15.70 30.10 405.00 11.50 130.30 37.80 238.00 35.78 73.75

-0.5% -5.1% -6.0% -6.2% -8.6% -9.9% -2.2% -13.2% -2.0% -6.4% -0.6% -5.1% -16.2%

21.5% 65.4% 59.0% 8.6% 63.6% 69.1% 26.3% 141.1% 53.3% 48.2% 51.4% 24.0% 22.9%

8.6 1'293.8 3'747.4 62.9 164.6 63.4 5.5 146.7 7.8 28.5 25.5 214.1 5.8

4'781 40'677 59'089 1'673 2'879 1'957 2'257 1'687 1'042 1'164 6'355 8'008 436

8'415.0 330'510.0 267'401.0 2'024.9 23.4 8'900.3 5'469.2 2'075.1 29.9 1'960.4 - 8'190.7 857.6

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1.0 6'786.0 4'353.0 37.4 2.0 - - 104.3 0.1 100.4 0.9 2.3 17.7

6'742.0 63'708.0 66'383.0 2'764.8 504.0 4'216.7 2'748.5 4'757.7 233.2 7'897.6 234.7 15'606.0 5'716.0

- - 264'460 - - 6'640 - - 839 - 6'121 - -

LFY 1'321.2 38'313.0 37'754.0 831.5 999.1 904.9 711.5 1'172.2 153.6 584.0 564.2 2'028.9 312.6

LTM 1'321.2 39'068.0 37'758.0 795.5 998.2 904.9 711.5 1'172.2 153.6 584.0 564.2 2'028.9 312.6

CY+1 1'026.0 26'588.8 26'834.9 718.0 649.9 830.4 501.0 806.6 175.3 383.0 520.4 2'139.7 219.0

CY+2 1'035.7 27'486.8 27'871.0 741.3 702.9 900.3 510.0 883.9 200.0 368.0 607.5 2'550.4 225.0

LFY - - 6.9x - - 7.2x - - 4.6x - 9.1x - -

LTM - - 6.9x - - 7.2x - - 4.6x - 9.1x - -

CY+1 - 35.2x - - 3.7x - - - - - 11.7x -1.3x -

CY+2 - 34.0x - - 3.2x - - - - - 10.0x -2.1x -

LFY - - 15'529.0 - - 222.3 - - 70.3 - 295.5 - -

LTM - - 15'530.0 - - 222.3 - - 70.3 - 295.5 - -

CY+1 - - - - - - - - 84.3 - 325.9 - -

CY+2 - - - - - - - - 98.5 - 385.7 - -

LFY - - 16.7x - - 29.1x - - 9.9x - 17.4x - -

LTM - - 16.7x - - 29.1x - - 9.9x - 17.4x - -

CY+1 - - - - - - - - - - 18.7x - -

CY+2 - - - - - - - - - - 15.7x - -

LFY 35.48 2.26 0.52 1.63 0.51 2.02 26.00 0.74 6.89 3.32 9.92 2.13 8.17

LTM 36.14 1.59 -0.67 1.04 0.51 2.05 27.28 0.76 6.92 3.32 10.15 1.49 8.17

CY+1 35.68 2.66 0.89 2.04 1.19 2.29 30.19 0.98 8.08 3.11 11.70 2.09 4.55

CY+2 36.28 3.05 1.19 1.83 1.36 2.64 30.62 1.16 9.29 3.44 13.61 2.74 5.29

LFY 15.4x 16.6x - 25.6x 30.8x 14.7x 14.8x 15.1x 18.8x 11.4x 23.4x 24.0x 9.0x

LTM 15.7x 9.2x 30.1x 25.6x 30.8x 14.9x 15.6x 15.5x 18.9x 11.4x 24.0x 24.9x 9.0x

CY+1 15.6x 9.9x 17.3x 13.0x 13.2x 13.2x 13.4x 11.7x 16.1x 12.2x 20.3x 17.2x 16.2x

CY+2 15.3x 8.7x 12.9x 14.6x 11.6x 11.4x 13.2x 9.9x 14.0x 11.0x 17.5x 13.0x 13.9x

1 Year (2.3%) (10.3%) (7.6%) (2.3%) 23.0% 1.6% 1.2% 8.7% 6.8% 5.2% 25.7% (1.1%) (2.5%)

5 Year (4.5%) (5.2%) (10.1%) (5.5%) - (1.5%) (4.3%) (11.8%) 10.6% (10.8%) 17.7% - (15.2%)

1 Year - - (11.1%) - - 3.9% - - 5.9% - 25.1% - -

5 Year - - (31.3%) - - (11.6%) - - 11.5% - 1.8% - -

LTM - - 41.1% - - 24.6% - - 45.8% - 52.4% - -

CY+1 - - - - - - - - 48.1% - 62.6% - -

CY+2 - - - - - - - - 49.3% - 63.5% - -

Total Debt / Equity % 322.4% 931.1% 582.6% 164.7% 1.2% 565.6% 282.8% 171.2% 12.7% 122.7% 0.0% 168.1% 98.5% FALSE FALSE

Total Debt / Capital % 76.3% 88.7% 84.2% 61.5% 1.2% 85.0% 73.9% 61.2% 11.3% 53.6% 0.0% 62.7% 49.1% FALSE FALSE

Total Debt / EBITDA - - 17.218x - - 40.037x - - 0.425x - 0.000x - - FALSE FALSE

Net Debt / EBITDA - - 10.520x - - 21.069x - - -2.893x - -0.794x - - FALSE FALSE

EBITDA / Int. Expense - - - - - - - - - - - - - FALSE FALSE

S&P LT Credit Rating AA A A A - A - - - - - - A- FALSE FALSE

S&P LT Credit Rating Date 05.12.2011 19.12.2008 29.11.2011 17.12.2012 - 30.03.2009 - - - - - - 24.02.2009 FALSE FALSE

Moody's LT Credit Rating - (P)A2 A2 - - - Aa1 - - - - - - FALSE FALSE

Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - 21.06.2012 21.06.2012 - - - 02.12.2003 - - - - - - FALSE FALSE

52-Week High Date

52-Week Low

Latest Fiscal Year:

52-Week High

Total Debt

Market Capitalization

Daily Volume

52-Week Low % Change

Current Price (4/dd/yy)

52-Week High % Change

Cash and Equivalents

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

Enterprise Value

Valuation

Preferred Stock

52-Week Low Date

Minority Interest

Total Common Shares (M)

P/E

Revenue Growth

Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EPS

EBITDA Growth

EBITDA Margin

Credit Ratings

Leverage/Coverage Ratios

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision

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