Final P Ach Proj Subm Oper Janua Project P hievab j ect P mitted t rator ary 27, 20 Plan ble Po Plan f to Inde 016 otent f or Lo penden ial St ong T e nt Elec t udy erm A ctricity S Anal y System ysis m
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Final P
AchProj
SubmOper Janua
Project P
hievabject P
mitted trator
ary 27, 20
Plan
ble PoPlan f
to Inde
016
otentfor Lo
penden
ial Stong Te
nt Elec
tudy erm A
ctricity S
Analy
System
ysis
m
Con
1 Proj
2 Met2
2
2
2
2
ntents
ject Back
hodology.1 Task 1
2.1.1 T
2.1.2 T
2.1.3 T
2.1.4 T
.2 Task 2
Foreca
2.2.1 T
2.2.2 T
2.2.3 T
2.2.4 T
.3 Task 3
2.3.1 T
2.3.2 T
2.
2.
2.3.3 T
2.3.4 T
.4 Task 4
..........
2.4.1 T
2.4.2 T
2.4.3 T
2.4.4 T
.5 Task 5
2.5.1 T
2.5.2 T
2.5.3 T
Achievable
kground a
y and Tas: Refine M
Task 1 Obj
Task 1 Met
Task 1 Del
Task 1 Sch
2: Develop
ast ............
Task 2 Obj
Task 2 Met
Task 2 Del
Task 2 Sch
3: Estimate
Task 3 Obj
Task 3 Met
3.2.1 Scre
3.2.2 Mea
Task 3 Del
Task 3 Sch
4: Bundle C
.................
Task 4 Obj
Task 4 Met
Task 4 Del
Task 4 Sch
5: Comparis
Task 5 Obj
Task 5 Met
Task 5 Del
Potential Stud
and Scop
sks ..........easures ...
ectives .....
thodology .
iverables ..
hedule .......
IESO Zone
.................
ectives .....
thodology .
iverables ..
hedule .......
e Economic
ectives .....
thodology .
een Measur
asure-Level
iverables ..
hedule .......
Cost-Effect
.................
ectives .....
thodology .
iverables ..
hedule .......
son of Eco
ectives .....
thodology .
iverables ..
dy – Final Lon
pe ...........
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e Profiles a
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c Potential
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res for Cos
l Assessme
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tive Measu
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onomic Po
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ng Term Analy
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and Disagg
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l ................
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st-Effectiven
ent .............
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ures and M
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otential with
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ysis Project Pl
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Map to End
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h EUF Mod
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lan
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Baseline Lo
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Use Marke
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del Potenti
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i
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oad
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ets
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ial 11
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2
2
2
3 Tas
4 Fina
2.5.4 T
.6 Task 6
2.6.1 T
2.6.2 T
2.
2.
2.
2.6.3 T
2.6.4 T
.7 Task 7
2.7.1 T
2.7.2 T
2.
2.
2.
2.7.3 T
2.7.4 T
.8 Task 8
2.8.1 T
2.8.2 T
2.8.3 T
2.8.4 T
k Plan an
al Report
Achievable
Task 5 Sch
6: Estimate
Task 6 Obj
Task 6 Met
6.2.1 Estim
6.2.2 Estim
6.2.3 Long
Task 6 Del
Task 6 Sch
7: Results A
Task 7 Obj
Task 7 Met
7.2.1 Sens
7.2.2 Long
7.2.3 Gas
Task 7 Del
Task 7 Sch
8: Develop
Task 9 Obj
Task 8 Met
Task 8 Del
Task 8 Sch
nd Sched
..............
Potential Stud
hedule .......
e Achievab
ectives .....
thodology .
mating Lon
mating Lon
g Term Cos
iverables ..
hedule .......
Analysis ..
ectives .....
thodology .
sitivity Anal
g Term Plan
s Integration
iverables ..
hedule .......
Report an
ectives .....
thodology .
iverables ..
hedule .......
dule .........
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le Long Te
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g Term Un
g Term Co
st Curves ..
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lysis ..........
nning and D
n ...............
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erm Potent
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1 P
The AchiEnergy aLocal DisFramewoand Demreduction There areconserva D
pCp
Dpa
This projanalysis B C
eO
The main A
saare
Id A D R
1 Behind-the
eligible mea
roject
ievable Poteand a conditistribution Coork. The IES
mand Managns in electric
e two major ation potentiaDevelop an e
otential betwConservation
lanning and
Develop a 20lanning and nalysis.
ect plan outis from 2015
Both transmisCurrently com
nergy manaOntario mark
n outputs of Annual provinavings and an unconstraesource plandentification
Analysis to idDevelopmentRecommenda
e-meter-generatiasures. The poten
Achievable
t Back
ential Study ion of the En
ompanies (LDSO is require
ement (CDMcity consump
needs for dal in Ontario
estimate of Lween 2015 an First Frame
design. This
0 year provinenergy effic
lines the pla5 to 2035 anssion- and dmmercially aagement/behet1.
the long termnce-wide anassociated cined scenar
nning. of opportun
dentify most t of long-termations to dire
on or embeddedntial savings from
Potential Stud
kgrou
is a requiremnergy ConseDCs), which
ed to coordinM) programsption betwee
eveloping a o: LDC-specific and 2020 to ework and tos is referred
ncial achievaciency progra
an for the lonnd the scopeistribution-cvailable, as
haviour-base
m analysis wd IESO zone
costs betweeio. This outp
ities and inssensitive inp
m cost curveect future wo
d load displacemem eligible behind
dy – Final Lon
und an
ment of a dirervation Agreh governs thenate, supports by LDCs toen January 1
new estima
and provincinform the m
o provide insto as the sh
able potentiaam design. T
ng term analye includes theonnected cuwell as new
ed energy eff
will be: e-specific acen 2015 andput will assis
ights for lonputs to the rees. ork.
ent, demand res-the-meter gener
ng Term Analy
nd Sco
rective from eement betwe 2015 - 202t and fund th
o achieve a t, 2015 and
ate of the ach
ce-wide (LDCmid-term revsights to asshort term ana
al forecast toThis is refer
ysis. The time following m
ustomers; anw and emergfficiency mea
chievable cod 2035 undest to inform th
g term consesults.
ponse, and priciration will be ana
ysis Project Pl
ope
the Ontario ween the IES20 Conservahe delivery ototal of 7 TWDecember 3
hievable ele
C-aggregateiew of the 20
sist LDCs witalysis.
o inform longred to as the
meframe of tmain items: nd ing, technoloasures appli
ost effective r a budget che IESO’s lo
servation pro
ng mechanisms alyzed in a separ
lan
Ministry of SO and Ontaation First of Conservat
Wh of persist31, 2020.
ctricity
e) achievable015- 2020 th program
g term resoue long term
the long term
ogy-based acable to the
electricity constrained aong term
ogram design
will not be includrate study.
1
ario’s
tion ing
e
rce
m
and
and
n.
ded as
2 M
To conduand meacosts wilsector, s2025, 20dynamic Details o
The propcollaboratransparedocumenThis projanalysis.
One of thplanningthe long methodoNexant’sdata andjustificati
The long
T T T T T T T T
These ei
Method
uct the long sure energyl be modeledubsector, an30 and 2035cost curve t
on the propos
posed approaative study aency into mont assumptioect plan sum
he main obje, which usesterm analyslogy of the lo model. Inpu results in thon of differe
term analys
Task 1: RefinTask 2: DeveTask 3: EstimTask 4: BundTask 5: CompTask 6: EstimTask 7: ResuTask 8: Deve
ght tasks are
Achievable
dolog
term analysy savings estd by IESO znd by end us5 time horizotool and provsed approac
ach relies onapproach in wodeling assuons, and cleammarizes the
ectives of thes the End-Usis of the achong term anuts and outphe EUF modences and/or
sis is organiz
ne measureselop IESO zomate economdle cost-effecpare econom
mate achievaults analysis elop report a
e described
Potential Stud
y and
is, Nexant wtimates fromone in the lo
se for each oons. Nexant vide it to IESch to conduc
n best practiwhich Nexanumptions. Nearly explain te approach t
e long term ase Forecastehievable potenalysis is struputs from Neel. The resu
r to make ad
zed into the
s one profiles amic potentialctive measurmic potentialable long term
nd deliverab
in detail in t
dy – Final Lon
d Task
will build on tm the short teong term anaof the ten IESwill load the
SO to informct the long te
ices in potennt staff proviexant will shathe methodoto conduct th
analysis is toer (EUF) moential study cuctured to dexant’s mode
ults of the twdjustments to
following tas
and forecast
res and mapl to EUF potem potential a
bles
the remainde
ng Term Analy
ks
the data inpuerm analysisalysis. FindinSO zones ae achievable long term re
erm analysis
ntial analysedes IESO aare all majoologies emphe long term
o provide inpodel. To ensucan be usedevelop an ecel will be ma
wo models wio the two mo
sks:
t disaggrega
p to end useential and develop
er of this sec
ysis Project Pl
uts, participas. However, ngs will be rnd reported
e potential finesource plan
s are provide
es and is emnd its stakehr analysis sployed in the
m achievable
put to IESO’ure the datad by the EUFconomic potpped to enaill be compaodels as app
ated load
e markets
p cost curves
ction.
lan
ation estimatsavings and
reported by for the 2020
ndings into anning decisi
ed below.
mbedded in aholders preadsheetsstudy repor
e potential
’s long term a and resultsF model, thetential with able the use ared to informpropriate.
s
2
tes, d
0, a ons.
a
s, ts.
s from e
of m
2.1 T
2.1.1 TThe objethe focusprogramscommercmeasure
2.1.2 TThe longthe sameto new onew techmeasureadditionaworking gNexant wsavings, performemeasureload). Thpercenta
Where futerm studcalculatioprocuredwith the aEUIs to aThese imincorporastandardterm anaof the mechart thacan easil
Task 1:
Task 1 Objeective of Tass on the longs. This will ncially availabs during the
Task 1 Meth term analys
e list of measr emerging m
hnologies. Th list for the lo
al new and egroup to ide
will only incluso that accu
ed. As in the s (e.g., addihis will be acges are esti
uture code cdy horizon, Nons to accoud throughout appropriate adjust througmprovementsated as apprs on energy
alysis. Nexaneasure for cot Nexant willy be tracked
Achievable
Refine
ectives k 1 is to revig term develnecessitate tble before 20e 20-year per
hodology sis will start wsures develomeasures. IEhe results ofong term an
emerging mentify measur
ude those emurate cost-efshort term ational kWh s
ccomplishedmated.
hanges fromNexant will flunt for this “dthe study hocodes and s
gh time to acs to applicabropriate. IESy efficiency pnt will also aost-effectivel develop ford over time a
Potential Stud
Measur
iew the meaopment of che inclusion035 and alsoriod.
with measuroped for the ESO has funf the ACEEE
nalysis. Additeasures to beres for inclusmerging meaffectiveness analysis, Nesavings for ad in the meas
m product stalag the affecdual baselineorizon, the mstandards. Fccount for imble end use ESO has compotential, andccount for thness calcular Ontario’s mand account
dy – Final Lon
res
sure list for onservation of new mea
o consider th
re research.short term a
nded ACEEEE study will ptional researe added. Nesion in the loasures wherand savingsxant will also
a LED light bsure researc
andards are cted measuree” in the savmeasure basFor example
mprovementsEUIs will be missioned ad the study ihe dual baseations. Figurmajor end usted for during
ng Term Analy
the short terand deman
asures that ihe influence
This researanalysis. PaE research inprovide one rch will be coexant will conong term mere reliable das potential co account fobulb due to tch task wher
known to tares and condvings potentiselines will ae, the TEA-Ps in efficiencresearched
a study to des expected t
eline when cre 2-1 belowse and techng measure r
ysis Project Pl
rm analysis,nd managems expected tof standard
rch will buildrticular attennvestigatinginput in deveonducted tonsult with th
easure list. Aata exists onalculations c
or interactivethe reduced re measures
ake effect duduct the addial. As measadjust accordPOT model ecies due to b from the EU
etermine theto provide in
considering lw illustrates anologies so cresearch.
lan
and edit it wment (CDM)
to become s and codes
on and utilizntion will be g a number oeloping the determine e IESO and
As a framewon cost and can be e effects betwspace cooli
s savings
uring the longitional savin
sures are re-dingly to alig
enables end building codeUF model an impact of
nput in the loifetime savin
a sample Gacode change
3
with
s on
ze paid
of
APS ork,
ween ng
g gs
-gn use
es. nd
ong ngs antt es
2.1.3 TThe delivincludes where staassumptthe APS revised.
2.1.4 TTask 1 w
2.2 TD
2.2.1 TThe objeby sectorprofiles wsimilar bouse forecthe two fo
Figu
Task 1 Delivverables of Temerging anandard and/ions. Nexanworking for
Task 1 Schewill commenc
Task 2: Disaggr
Task 2 Objeective of this r, by subsecwill be built frottom-up apcast. Adjustorecasts are
Achievable
ure 2-1: Sam
verables Task 1 will bnd new tech/or code chant will submitreview and w
edule ce in Octobe
Develoregated
ectives task is to de
ctor and by erom the LDCproach, andments will b
e in general
Potential Stud
mple Gantt C
e a revised hnology meaanges are ant the long tewill clearly id
er 2015 and
p IESO Baselin
evelop load pend use by yC load profiled then will bee made to thalignment. T
dy – Final Lon
Chart of Co
measure listsures, and u
nticipated torm analysis dentify meas
be complete
Zone Pne Load
profiles that year for eaches developede compared ahe IESO ZonTask 2 Metho
ng Term Analy
de Changes
t from the shupdated savaffect baselmeasure to
sures that ha
ed by end of
Profilesd Forec
identify the h of the ten Id for the shoagainst the ne forecastsodology
ysis Project Pl
s Over Time
hort term anavings values ine consumIESO, the e
ave been ad
f December,
and cast
share of theESO zones.ort term anaEUF model
s where need
lan
e
alysis that for measureption
expert panel dd and/or
2015.
e electricity lo. These loadlysis using areference ended to ensu
4
es
and
oad d a nd re
2.2.2 TSince theIESO zondevelop talign withsteps. Figestablish
Figure 2
1)
2 Where LD
resides in eathe distributi
Task 2 Methe aim of the ne level (as ten load proh the ten IESgure 2-2 sho
hed for each
2-2: Simplif
Disaggregaload by secanalysis, Ndevelop thesum up thesubsector w
Add in Traconnected map the cuload repres
Compare wby subsecto
C service territorach IESO zone. ion of load and c
Achievable
hodology long term anopposed to file forecasts
SO zones usows a simpliIESO Zone
fied Illustrat
ate Base Yector/subsectoexant will dr
e LDC Profile necessary b
within each z
nsmission-customers astomer acco
sents the elig
with EUF Moor as summe
ries cross multiplRespective shar
customers by sub
Potential Stud
nalysis is to estimating as (energy sased in the EUfied example.
tion of Base
ear Load byor and develraw on the wes. We will baseline yeazone2.
-Connectedand energy loounts to the gible populat
odel: Next, wed up by IES
le IESO zones, Nres of their load absector and end
dy – Final Lon
estimate acachievable pales by sectoUF model foe of how the
eline Load F
y Sector/Sulop the ten IE
work completmap each Lar (2014) en
Customersoad for eachappropriate tion for the lo
we will compSO Zone fro
Nexant will estimand customers wuse for that LDC
ng Term Analy
chievable potpotential for eor, by subse
or long term pe Baseline L
Forecast De
bsector: ToESO zone pted as part o
LDC to an IEergy load an
s: Nexant wih of the applsubsector toong term an
pare the distm each LDC
mate the share of will then be allocaC remaining cons
ysis Project Pl
tential at theeach LDC),
ector, and byplanning in toad Forecas
evelopment
o disaggregaprofiles for thof the short tSO zone(s) nd customer
ill add in tranlicable IESOo ensure the
nalysis.
tribution of sC load profile
each LDC’s loadated to the appro
stant across IESO
lan
e province anNexant will
y end use) ththe followingst will be
t by IESO Z
ate the base he long termterm analysito allocate a
rs by sector
nsmission O zones, ande top-line 20
sales by sece with the
d and customersopriate IESO zonO zones.
5
nd
hat g
Zone
year s to and and
d 14
tor,
s that ne, with
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
By propepenetratimeasure
distribution discrepanciexplain the
Disaggregasubsector loThis will bebenchmarkstudies, and
Apply BaseNexant will percentagesales for th
Apply IESOsector driveIESO’s EUF
Subtract CNexant will savings throadoption ofmore efficieby IESO thaappropriatethe savingspersisting sestablish th
Adjust Endfor changesgrowth rateforecast wilchanges in CAGRs willto the respeby IESO zoand retail sby sector by
erly accountion rates, reps as a result
Achievable
of sales by ies exist, Necause for d
ate Base Yeoad profiles done by an
king studies, d the EUF m
e Year Loadapply the te
es by sector, e base year
O’s Gross Rers to develoF model’s gr
Codes and Swork with though the lonf more stringent product sat summariz
e persisting ss from the grsavings will bhe Baseline f
d Use and Ss to the end
es (CAGR) fol be reviewethe end use
l also be resective end uone will be repace forecay subsector)
ng for thesepresenting tht of CDM eff
Potential Stud
sector, by sexant will woifferences, a
ear Load bywill be disagalyzing secothe U.S. En
model end us
d Profiles toen 2014 base
by subsecto(2014).
Reference Fop a gross reross referenc
Standards ahe IESO’s Eng-term studgent buildingstandards (ezes the persisavings by IEross referencbe subtracteforecast.
Subsector Luse and cus
or end use eed and appliee shares of esearched frose loads. A
esearched frsts so that a) over time c
e factors, thehe differenceforts and the
dy – Final Lon
ubsector froork with EUFand if necess
y End Use: Nggregated byondary sourcergy Informase load profi
o IESO Zonee year load por, by end us
Forecast: Neference forece forecast.
and PersistiUF model sty horizon an codes (e.g.
e.g. appliancisting savingESO zone, bce forecast.
ed from the to
Load Sharesstomer subsenergy intensed to the baenergy load m sources s
Additionally, crom IESO’s Gadjustments can be accou
e long term pe between th
e “business a
ng Term Analy
om the EUF mF modeling stsary adjust a
Next, each oy end use foces such as ation Agencles.
e Base Yeaprofiles (enese) to the to
Nexant will apecast (2015
ng Savingstaff to obtainnticipated by HVAC and
ces). Next, wgs by measuby sector an These codeop-line gros
s by Year (asector mix ovsity estimatese year IESover time ca
such as the Echanges in tGross Load to the custounted for by
potential studhe anticipateas usual” ad
ysis Project Pl
model. If sigtaff to underassumptions
of the ten IEor the 2014 b
Ontario andcy (EIA) ener
ar Top-Line ergy sales diop-line IESO
pply IESO seto 2035) co
s from Grosn the respecty end use dulighting) and
we will reviewure and allocd by end uses and stands reference
as appropriaver time, comes from the EO Zone load
an be capturEIA in the Uthe total annForecast an
omer mix (saIESO zone.
dy will estimed adoption
doption rates
lan
gnificant rstand and s.
SO zone baseline yead Canada rgy use prof
Gross Saleistribution zone energ
ector and sunsistent with
ss Forecasttive energy ue to the d the adoptiow data provi
cate the e and subtradards, and forecast to
ate): To accmpound annEUF referend profiles so red. As need.S. and app
nual customend from officales distribut.
mate the net of efficiency
s absent CD
6
ar.
ile
es:
y
ub-h the
:
on of ided
act
count nual ce that
ded, lied ers ce tions
y M
interventover a 10where Neoccur ab
2.2.3 TThe delivsales by type (distLDC-speeach of t
2.2.4 TWork on
2.3 T
2.3.1 TThe objeeffectivencosts for
2.3.2 TEstimatinanalysis
N
Ete
Details oprovided
2.3.2.1 Once theNexant wend use tests to dless thanthe measthan 1.0
ion. This is t0- to 20-yearexant estimaove baseline
Task 2 Delivverable of tasector, by stribution vs.
ecific load prohe ten IESO
Task 2 Schethis task wil
Task 3:
Task 3 Objeectives of Tasness calculaeach cost-e
Task 3 Methng economicand will incl
Nexant will sc
Economic poen IESO zon
on the steps below.
Screen Mee measure awill screen eamarket. IES
determine con 1.0 will be sure to be inwill be deem
Achievable
true even in r horizon, anates the meae measure a
verables sk 2 will be ubsector, bytransmissioofiles in the
O zones.
edule l commence
Estimat
ectives sk 3 is to run
ator based oeffective mea
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18
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2.7.3 TThe delivenergy splanning recommefuture ele
2.7.4 TThis task
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2.8.1 TDevelop assumpt
2.8.2 TThe repomilestoneof the prodeliverabformat foaddresse
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y insights an efforts betwated and cha
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19
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2.8.3 TThe delivaccompaeach LDCpanel, an
2.8.4 TThis task
3 Ta
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Achievable Potential Study – Final Long Term Analysis Project Plan 21
Figure 3-1: Task Plan and Schedule
2016
Task Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
1 Refine Measures
2 Develop IESO Zone Profiles and Disaggregated Load Forecast
3 Estimate Economic Potential
3.1 Screen measures for cost‐effectiveness
3.2 Measure‐level assessment
4 Bundle Cost‐Effective Measures and Map to End Use Markets
5 Comparison and Calibration of Economic Potential with EUF Model Potential
6 Estimate Achievable Long Term Potential
6.1 Long term unconstrained achievable potential
6.2 Long term constrained achievable potential
6.3 Long term cost curves
7 Results Analysis
7.1 Sensitivity analysis
7.2 Long term planning and design insights
7.3 Gas integration
8 Develop Report and Deliverables (Draft and Final versions)
4 F
The mainmilestone
Arere
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The deta
E In M M IE E A S P R T A A
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n final reportes will inform
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ailed report w
Executive sumntroduction
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Achievable
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t will be devem a section w
summary reations, and in
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23
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