10/4/2017 1 The Current Performance and Near-Term Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Region’s Economies Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. The Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University October 4, 2017 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Washington U.S. U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2021 (Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change) (%) Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
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10/4/2017
1
The Current Performance and Near-Term Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Region’s Economies
Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.The Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, The Stephen S. Fuller InstituteSchar School of Policy and Government
George Mason UniversityOctober 4, 2017
-4-3-2-1012345
Washington
U.S.
U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2021(Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change)(%)Forecast
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10/4/2017
2
How is the U.S. economy performing and what is the outlook for 2018?
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Four Recessions
*in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars** Quarters 26+ include the 2009 RecessionSources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10/4/2017
3
(25.0) (20.0) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0)
- 5.0
10.0 15.0
U.S. Leading IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(10.0) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0)
- 2.0 4.0
U.S. Coincident IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
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4
-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000
02,0004,0006,000
U.S. Annual Change in Payroll JobsMonth-Over-The-Year
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(000s) Aug = +2.1 M
-690
6192
68264
151142
333-29
2607
477
(600) (400) (200) - 200 400 600 800Information
Federal Govt.Transp. & Util.Other Services
Wlse TradeConstruction
FinancialManufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.Retail Trade
State & Local GovtProf. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorAugust 2016 – August 2017Ranked by Size in 2016 (000s) Total = +2,100
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
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5
456789
1011
U.S. Unemployment RateAugust 2009 – August 2017
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Northern Virginia Job Change by Sector August 2016 – August 2017Ranked by Size in 2016 (000s) Total = 18,600
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
02468
1012
6.6 – DC4.4 – U.S.3.7 – MSA3.6 – SMD3.2 – NVA
Washington Metropolitan AreaUnemployment Rates By Sub-State Area, 2010-2017
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (US: Seasonally Adjusted; MSA: Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(%)
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Is the Washington Region’s economy becoming more diversified? Roadmap Update
AdvocacyServices Information &
Communications Technology Services
Science &Security TechnologyServices
Bio & HealthTechnology ServicesBusiness &
Financial Services
Media & Information
Services
Business & Leisure Travel Services
The Washington Region’s Advanced Industrial Clusters
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% ChangeClusters 4.0%Non-Cluster, Private 6.2%Government 3.0%Total Jobs 5.0%
Employment in the Advanced Industrial ClustersMarch 2014 – March 2017 Change
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
% ChangeClusters 4.0%Non-Cluster, Private 6.2%Government 3.0%Total Jobs 5.0%Clusters, U.S. 8.0%
Employment in the Advanced Industrial ClustersMarch 2014 – March 2017 Change
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
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1.3% 1.6%
-0.6% -1.4%
6.9%
1.6%3.1%
1.3%
3.6% 3.6%
0.9%
-0.7%
6.5%
1.2%2.6% 2.6%
-2%0%2%4%6%8%
Info. Comm.Tech. BusinessServices Science &Security Tech. Media & Info. Bio. & HealthTech. Advocacy Business &Leisure Travel All Clusters
Washington U.S.
Underperforming the Nation Outperforming the Nation
Growth Rates of the Washington Region’sAdvanced Industrial ClustersMarch 2014 to March 2017, Annualized Growth
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of September 2017)NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,300
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-2-1012345
NoVAWMSASub MDDC
Washington MSA and Sub-State AreasEconomic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2021(Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change)(%)Forecast
Sources: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-4-3-2-1012345
Washington
U.S.
U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2021(Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change)(%)Forecast
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10/4/2017
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Thank You & QuestionsFor monthly reports on the Washington region’s economic performance go to: