CONFORMITY OF THE 2007 CYCLE 1 AMENDMENTS TO THE FISCALLY CONSTRAINED 2030 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN AND THE 2007-2012 TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM WITH THE STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR AIR QUALITY Adopted May 16, 2007 Denver Regional Council of Governments 4500 Cherry Creek Drive South, Suite 800 Denver, Colorado 80246 Preparation of this report has been financed in part through grants from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration, and Federal Highway Administration
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CONFORMITY OF THE 2007 CYCLE 1 AMENDMENTS TO THE FISCALLY CONSTRAINED
2030 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN AND THE 2007-2012 TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM WITH THE STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR AIR
QUALITY
Adopted May 16, 2007
Denver Regional Council of Governments 4500 Cherry Creek Drive South, Suite 800
Denver, Colorado 80246
Preparation of this report has been financed in part through grants from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration,
and Federal Highway Administration
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ABSTRACT TITLE: Conformity of the 2007 First Cycle Amendments to the Fiscally
Constrained 2030 Regional Transportation Plan and the 2007-2012 Transportation Improvement Program with the State Implementation Plan for Air Quality
AUTHOR: Denver Regional Council of Governments SUBJECT: Air quality conformity of the Denver region's long-range
transportation plan and short-range improvement program. DATE: Adopted May 16, 2007 SOURCE OF COPIES: Public Information and Communications Office DRCOG 4500 Cherry Creek Drive South Suite 800 Denver, Colorado 80246 (303) 455-1000 NUMBER OF PAGES: 100 ABSTRACT: Demonstration of the Denver region's timely implementation of
adopted Transportation Control Measures and meeting of federally prescribed air pollution emissions tests.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 1
Federal Requirements ............................................................................................................ 1 Current Situation..................................................................................................................... 3 Process………. ........................................................................................................................ 5
II. IMPLEMENTATION OF CONTROL MEASURES ..................................................... 7 Transportation Control Measures ......................................................................................... 7 Timely Implementation Criteria.............................................................................................. 9
III. EMISSIONS TESTS................................................................................................ 11 General Description.............................................................................................................. 11 Technical Process ................................................................................................................ 14 Control Measures.................................................................................................................. 18 Mobile Source Measures...................................................................................................... 20 Emission Test Results.......................................................................................................... 20
APPENDIX A TRANSPORTATION NETWORK ASSUMPTIONS ............................... 23 APPENDIX B TRANSPORTATION MODEL CALIBRATION DESCRIPTION ............. 57
TRANSPORTATION MODEL CALIBRATION DESCRIPTION ............................................. 59 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………….59 Demographic Development Estimation .............................................................................. 60 Small Area Development Estimates.................................................................................... 62 Highway and Transit System ............................................................................................... 63 Trip Generation ..................................................................................................................... 63 Trip Distribution .................................................................................................................... 65 Mode Choice… ...................................................................................................................... 65 Travel Time-of-Day................................................................................................................ 65 Network Assignment ............................................................................................................ 66 Model Calibration.................................................................................................................. 66 Air Quality Modeling ............................................................................................................. 67
APPENDIX C PM10 STREET EMISSIONS REDUCTION COMMITMENTS ................. 69 APPENDIX D U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION CONFORMITY FINDING (TO BE PROVIDED) ..................................................................................................... 91 APPENDIX E ................................................................................................................ 95 LIST OF ACRONYMS................................................................................................... 95
Table 2 Population and Employment Forecasts....................................................... 14
Table 3 2030 Population and Employment Estimates by County.............................. 15
Table 4 Conformity Emissions Test Results ............................................................ 22
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Denver Transportation Management Area..........................................................2 Figure 2 Air Quality Attainment Maintenance Areas.......................................................13
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I. INTRODUCTION Federal Requirements The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) is the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for the Denver Transportation Management Area (TMA). Figure 1 displays the TMA. The MPO is required to show conformity of its fiscally constrained transportation plan and Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) with the State Implementation Plan (SIP) for air quality before these transportation plans and programs are adopted. This action is required under Section 176(c) of the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1990. Conformity to an air quality implementation plan is defined in the Clean Air Act as conformity to the implementation plan's purpose of eliminating or reducing the severity and number of violations of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and achieving expeditious attainment of such standards. In addition, activities may not cause or contribute to new violations of air quality standards, exacerbate existing violations, or interfere with the timely attainment of required emissions reductions towards attainment. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued final transportation conformity rule amendments on July 1, 2004. The amendments include: • Conformity regulations for the new 8-hour ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) NAAQS. • The incorporation of existing federal guidance that is consistent with a U.S. Court of Appeals
decision. • The streamlining and improving of EPA’s existing transportation conformity rule.1
This conformity finding covers plan and program level conformity only. Project sponsors are responsible for project-level conformity analysis for carbon monoxide and PM10. The EPA criteria and procedures vary according to the status of the State Air Quality Implementation Plans for individual pollutants. Transportation plans and programs must satisfy different criteria depending on whether the state has submitted a SIP revision, and whether the EPA has approved such submittal. In addition to the emissions tests, the region must demonstrate timely implementation of adopted Transportation Control Measures (TCMs). The transportation community is held responsible for implementing TCMs to which the state committed in the various pollutant SIPs. The U. S. Department of Transportation and EPA issued Interim Guidance for Implementing the Transportation Conformity Provisions in the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) on February 14, 2006. The document addresses each of the revisions and explains how to implement the changes during the period before federal conformity rules are revised. No changes were made to the process used in developing this conformity documentation, as none were applicable.
1 40 CFR Part 93
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Current Situation Transportation Planning The Metro Vision 2030 Plan is the long-range growth and development strategy for the Denver region. It integrates plans for growth and development, transportation, and environmental quality into a single comprehensive foundation for regional planning. Metro Vision calls for a balanced multimodal surface transportation system, including rapid transit, a regional bus network, a regional beltway, bicycle and pedestrian facilities, and improvements to the existing roadway system. The regional transportation plan is based on the principles of Metro Vision. The 2030 Metro Vision Regional Transportation Plan (MVRTP) is the transportation plan that implements the transportation element of Metro Vision. The planning process began in Summer 2003 when the transportation needs were identified for all expenditure categories. Potential revenues sources were tabulated. Roadway capacity expansion improvements were then evaluated, scored, and ranked using a criteria-based system described in the MVRTP. Finally, the highest ranked improvements were selected for inclusion in the Fiscally Constrained 2030 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). The 2030 MVRTP and Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP were adopted in January 2005 and amended in January and June, 2006, and January 2007. The 2030 fiscally constrained MVRTP is proposed for amendment to reflect new locally and state/federally-funded roadway and transit projects. These amendments were submitted as part of the integrated annual Metro Vision Assessment Process. Through this mechanism, DRCOG ensures that its regional plans reflect the most current information about the existing and future conditions of the region. It also provides a regular opportunity to consider amendments to the regional plans. The proposed network amendments to the fiscally constrained 2030 MVRTP will not affect its fiscal constraint status. All the amendments will be funded with locally derived revenues. Short-range programming of needed transit, alternative mode, and highway improvements is reflected in this conformity finding documentation. This programming process began with approval in June 2005 of new programming policies. Requests were evaluated by considering reconstruction, resurfacing, safety, capacity, and other needs. The resulting program implements the Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP in that projects funded through the 2007-2012 TIP are either identified in the Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP or are consistent with the management portions of the plan. The 2007-2012 TIP was adopted on June 14, 2006. There have been two policy amendments since then. DRCOG committed through this process to fund high priority TCMs identified and adopted through the SIP process. Air Quality Planning The status of air quality planning is important as it determines the emissions tests that must be met to find conformity. The revised carbon monoxide (CO) maintenance plan for Longmont established the emissions budget at 41 tons per day for 2010-2014 and 2015 and beyond. The EPA approval of the plan was effective on November 29, 2004.
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The revised CO maintenance plan for Denver, adopted on June 19, 2003, established the emissions budget at 1520 tons per day for 2015 and beyond. The EPA approval of the plan was effective on November 15, 2004. This plan was sent to the EPA. A revised CO Maintenance Plan was approved by the Colorado Air Quality Control Commission (AQCC) on December 15, 2005, but the revised budgets contained in this document will not be applicable until subsequent EPA action. The State of Colorado submitted the Denver particulate matter less than 10 microns in size (PM10) maintenance plan to the EPA in July 2001. EPA approved the plan and budget of 51 tons per day for the year 2015 and beyond on October 16, 2002. In addition, the PM10 maintenance plan established a wintertime nitrogen oxide (NOx) budget of 101 tons per day for the year 2015 and beyond. Similar to CO, a revised maintenance plan approved by the AQCC on December 15, 2005, has been sent to the EPA. Again, the revised budgets will not be applicable until EPA action. The Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC), in cooperation with the state, prepared a maintenance plan for the one-hour ozone standard. The maintenance plan was submitted to the EPA in May 2001. Based on this submittal, effective October 11, 2001, the EPA approved the Denver one-hour ozone standard redesignation request, the maintenance plan, and the volatile organic compounds (VOC) and summertime NOx transportation conformity budgets of 119 and 134 tons per day for 2002 and beyond. The EPA currently has two NAAQS for ozone, the one-hour standard and the eight-hour standard. The maintenance plan and associated documents for the one-hour standard are described above. Based on the 2001-2003 three-year average, the Denver region is in violation of the eight-hour standard. EPA found Denver to be in nonattainment for the eight-hour ozone standard in April 2004. However, the EPA deferred this designation until 2007 as DRCOG, RAQC, Air Pollution Control Division (APCD), Air Quality Control Commission (AQCC), and Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) entered into the Ozone Early Action Compact and have since developed and are implementing an Early Action Plan. Air Quality Situation The region has been redesignated attainment-maintenance for CO, PM10, and ozone. The pollutants and their violation status for the Denver region include: • Carbon Monoxide – A violation of the carbon monoxide standard occurs when a monitoring
station shows more than one exceedance per year of the eight-hour (9 ppm) or one-hour (35 ppm) standard. The carbon monoxide standard was last violated in 1995. In 2004, the Department of Public Health and Environment measured 8.7 parts per million (ppm) at the 2105 Broadway, Continuous Air Monitoring Project (CAMP) station, which was 25 percent of the federal health one-hour standard of 35 ppm. The state health department also measured 4.5 parts per million (ppm) at the same station, which was 43 percent of the federal health eight-hour standard of 9 ppm (reading on second highest day, averaged over eight hours).
• PM10 - A violation of the PM10 standard occurs when a monitoring station exceeds the
annual average of 50 micrograms per cubic meter (µ/m3) or the 24-hour average of 150 µ/m3. The 24-hour standard may not be exceeded more than three times over a three-year period. The PM10 standard was last violated on three days in 1993. The highest reading in 2004 was 104 µ/m3 recorded at the 78th and Steele Street, Denver station, which is 67
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percent of the federal standard of 150 micrograms per cubic meter averaged over 24 hours. The state health department also recorded 34.6 micrograms per cubic meter at the 7101 Birch Street, Commerce City station, which is 63 percent of the federal annual average standard.
• One-Hour Ozone - A violation of the one-hour ozone standard occurs when a monitoring
station exceeds the 0.125 ppm standard more than three times in three years. The one-hour ozone standard was last violated in 1988. The highest reading in 2004 was 0.093 ppm at Chatfield Reservoir, which was 74 percent of the federal one-hour standard of 0.12 ppm.
• Eight-Hour Ozone – A violation of the eight-hour ozone standard occurs when the three-year
average of the fourth maximum values at one monitor exceeds the federal standard of .08 ppm. The eight-hour ozone standard was violated at three different locations in 2003. The relevant readings were:
o 0.095 at Chatfield Reservoir, which contributed to the three-year average at this site
of 0.085, 100 percent of the federal eight-hour standard2. o 0.091 at North Rocky Flats, which contributed to the three-year average at this site of
0.087, 102 percent of the federal eight-hour standard. o 0.095 at National Renewal Energy Lab, which contributed to the three-year average
at this site of 0.085, 100 percent of the federal eight-hour standard.
The eight-hour ozone standard was not exceeded during the 2004 summer ozone season. The relevant reading at the 636 Lookout Mountain Road station was 0.078 ppm, or 92 percent of the 8-hour standard (fourth maximum reading). There were two exceedance days in 2005, with maximum values of 0.086 ppm at the Highlands monitor, and 0.091 ppm at the Chatfield monitor. The standard was also exceeded on multiple days in 2006 with maximums at the Welch of 0.096 ppm, Rocky Flats and NREL of 0.094 ppm, and Rocky Mountain National Park monitors, with values of 0.091 ppm.
Process Agency Roles The Conformity SIP was developed by the Air Quality Control Commission (AQCC) and adopted in 1998. It formally defines the process for finding conformity. In November / December 1998, a memorandum of agreement was signed by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment and DRCOG for the purpose of defining the specific roles and responsibilities in conformity evaluations and findings. The EPA approved the Conformity SIP on September 21, 2001 (66FR48561). This makes the Conformity SIP federally enforceable. DRCOG, as the MPO, and the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), as representatives of the U.S. Department of Transportation, are charged with determining conformity for the Denver TMA. The process of developing the Fiscally Constrained RTP and TIP conformity determination has been a cooperative one between the RAQC, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment's APCD, the EPA, the FHWA, the FTA, the CDOT, the Regional Transportation District (RTD), and DRCOG.
2 All monitor values are rounded down under the procedures set forth in the Clean Air Act.
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During the development of the conformity finding, federal regulations require the MPO to consult with the state and regional air quality agencies, local transportation agencies, CDOT, RTD and EPA. DRCOG used the Metropolitan Planning Organization’s Agency Coordination Team (ACT) as the primary group for interagency consultation. The ACT reviewed the definition of conformity tests that must be met and the key analytical and network definition assumptions. A survey conducted in May 2006 of all local governments and other implementing agencies was used to aid in network definition. The preliminary networks were defined and discussed at the ACT, Transportation Advisory Committee, and Regional Transportation Committee. CDOT reviewed and commented on the highway networks. RTD assisted in defining the transit networks. Public Participation Public participation was encouraged throughout the development of the 2030 MVRTP, including the Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP, the 2007-2012 TIP, and this conformity finding. A public hearing was held on the 2030 Metro Vision Regional Transportation Plan and on its original conformity document on December 15, 2004. A public hearing on the amendments and their conformity was held on April 18, 2007 before the DRCOG Board. Summaries of testimony received at public hearings are available at the DRCOG office. Members of the public are also encouraged to provide input to their local elected officials and government staff who work closely with DRCOG staff on these processes.
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II. IMPLEMENTATION OF CONTROL MEASURES Transportation Control Measures The transportation plan and program must provide for the timely implementation of adopted Transportation Control Measures (TCM) from the applicable implementation plan. The state air quality implementation plan identified a number of TCMs that were funded and completed in past TIPs. The one remaining partially completed TCM, defined in the 1979 Carbon Monoxide SIP and the 1982 Ozone SIP, is the implementation of the first phase of a light rail system, tentatively identified as the southeast corridor, to be completed by 1987. The description of this measure stated that if the electorate did not approve light rail, an expanded bus fleet would be expected to provide an equivalent emissions reduction. The region’s first segment of light rail, which opened in October 1994, provides service from the downtown area south to Broadway and I-25. The first extension of this service, the southwest corridor, from Broadway and I-25 to Mineral Avenue along Santa Fe Boulevard, opened in July 2000.
An extension of light rail service into the Platte Valley opened in April 2002. Funding came from a private-public partnership that includes DRCOG, RTD, Denver and the private sector. The southeast corridor light rail transit was completed in November 2006. It includes light rail service along I-25 from Broadway south to Lincoln Avenue, as well as a light rail spur along I-225 from I-25 to Parker Road. The funding for this improvement was approved in a November 1999 ballot issue, which allows RTD to issue bonds and other debt instruments sufficient to guarantee a 40 percent local match against federal discretionary funds that are reasonably expected to be available under an approved FTA Full Funding Agreement. With the completion of the southeast corridor, the region will have 35 miles of light rail transit serving suburban and urban commuters. RTD has expanded its bus fleet from 628 in 1969 to 1,071 in 2007. This fleet expansion and related increase in service has provided some emissions reduction to offset the delay of the light rail transit control measure. Beyond the SIP measures, the Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP and 2007-2012 TIP continue funding for transportation demand management actions through: • The regional Commuters Services program. • A separate TDM grant program that supports subregional efforts, including programs
proposed by the corridor and subarea transportation management organizations (TMO). • Local bus service initiatives. Thirty-four new congestion mitigation/air quality (CMAQ) improvement projects were included in the 2007-2012 TIP. They include: • Ethanol Fuel Implementation Program. • Tanker and Truck Purchases. • Idling Gets You Nowhere.
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• Ozone Outreach and Education Campaign. • Diesel Idling and Emissions Reduction Project. • Dry Creek: Bicycle/Pedestrian Bridge Extension. • Kipling Parkway: Ridge Road to 58th Avenue Multi-use Path. • I-225 Corridor: Nine Mile Station Area Master Plan. • Elmers Two Mile Multi-use Path: Valmont Road to Glenwood Drive. • 30th Street: First Phase Access Improvements to Boulder Transit Village. • Arapahoe Avenue: Folsom to 30th Multi-use Path. • SH-119: LOBO (Longmont-to-Boulder) Trail Connections. • Central Street Promenade: 16th Street to 20th Street. • West Corridor: 11th Avenue to Knox Court Multi-use Trail. • Arapahoe Road (SH-88): Dayton Street to Emporia Street Multi-use Path. • Wadsworth Boulevard: 13th Avenue Bicycle and Pedestrian Overpass. • Kipling Street: 13th Avenue Bicycle and Pedestrian Overpass. • South Thornton call-n-Ride. • FasTracks CMAQ Projects. • Congestion Evaluation Tool. • Gold Line: Pecos and Federal Station Area Master Plans. • I-225 Corridor: Iliff Station Area Master Plan. • I-225 Corridor: Fourth Avenue Station Area Master. • East Corridor: Peoria Street/Smith Road Station Area Master Plan. • Southeast Corridor: Colorado Boulevard Station Area Action Plan. • Central Corridor: 10th/Osage Station Area Master Plan. • Central Corridor: 40th Street/40th Avenue Station Area Master Plan. • Gold Line: 38th/Inca Station Area Master Plan. • West Corridor: Sheridan and Decatur Station Area Master Plans. • West Corridor: Federal Center Station Area Master Plan. • Parker Road: Bicycle/Pedestrian Bridge. • West Corridor: Wadsworth Boulevard Station Area Master Plan. • Gold Line: Sheridan, Olde Town, and Arvada Ridge Station Area Master Plans. • Station Area Plan Pool---Of the original $732 million in programmed funds, $400 million in
Federal funds and $100 million in local funds have been allocated to date. In addition, the following CMAQ projects have been added since the 2007-2012 TIP was adopted. • Arvada call-n-ride Transit Service • Pearl St: 30th Boulder Village Transit Center • Regional Intelligent Transportation System Pool • Regional Transportation Demand Management Program • Regional Traffic Signal System Improvement Program • 30th Street Bikelanes: Arapahoe to Pearl • RideArrangers Program: Denver Transportation Management Area • US- 36 / SH-119: Denver to Longmont Corridor Station Planning • Metro North Transportation Management Organization • Hampden Avenue: Monaco Street to I-25 Sidewalk Gap Closures • 47th Ave: York Street Bike/Ped. Crossing of UPRR • IMC Consolidated Service Center: Natural Gas Fueling Station • I-225 Corridor: Colfax Avenue Station Area Master Plan • CMAQ B/P Pool: 2007-2012 TIP
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• North Metro Corridor: Eastlake Station Area Master Plan • Southwest Corridor: Evans Street and Central Corridor: Auraria Station Area Master Plans • North Metro Corridor: DUS to 162nd Avenue Corridor Station Planning Timely Implementation Criteria The transportation plan must meet two conditions to demonstrate timely implementation of TCMs: • The transportation plan, in describing the envisioned future transportation system, provides
for the timely completion or implementation of all TCMs in the applicable implementation plan which are eligible for funding under Title 23 USC or the Federal Transit Act, consistent with the schedule included in the applicable implementation plan.
The Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP identifies the metropolitan transportation system of travel demand actions, operational improvements, and capital-intensive roadway, high-occupancy vehicle, and transit facilities, and contains policies to guide the implementation of the plan. A capital-intensive TCM related project that was identified is the I-25 Southeast light rail line, that was completed in 2006. The Denver Regional Element of the State Air Quality Implementation Plan and the Fiscally Constrained RTP are consistent documents. The continued implementation of the TCMs is thus supported through the Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP. There are no remaining TCM’s to be implemented.
• Nothing in the transportation plan interferes with the implementation of any TCM in the
applicable implementation plan.
The DRCOG committees and Board review the goals, policies, recommendations, and improvements identified in the Fiscally Constrained RTP. No conflicts exist with any specific requirements in commitments of the adopted SIP. The Fiscally Constrained RTP does not prohibit implementation of any SIP TCM, nor does it make it impossible to implement any SIP TCM. TCMs contained in the SIP, but not directly related to the Fiscally Constrained RTP, given their non-facility planning nature, include the federal Motor Vehicle Emissions Control Program, Inspection and Maintenance Program, stationary source controls, display signs instructing motorists to turn off engines, warranty enforcement, and gasoline high altitude emissions research. The Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP contains no policies that inhibit the implementation of these measures.
For a TIP to provide for the timely implementation of TCMs, three criteria must be satisfied: • TCMs, which are eligible for funding under Title 23 USC of the Federal Transit Act, are on or
ahead of the schedule established in the applicable implementation plan, or, if such TCMs are behind schedule, the MPO and DOT have determined the past obstacles to implementation have been identified and overcome.
An examination of the projects listed in the 2007-2012 TIP shows that adequate funding is provided for all ongoing control measures and programs related to TCMs, including:
o Continued expansion of the bus fleet.
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o Transportation demand management activities. o PM10 reduction measures. o The regional Commuter Services program. o The regional traffic signalization program.
• If TCMs have previously been programmed, but funds have not been obligated and the
TCMs are behind schedule, then the TIP cannot be found to conform if the funds intended for these TCMs are reallocated to projects in the TIP other than TCMs.
This situation has not occurred. Programmed funds for TCMs have been obligated.
• Nothing in the TIP may interfere with implementation of any TCM in the applicable
implementation plan. The DRCOG committees and Board review the projects identified in the 2007-2012 TIP. No
conflicts exist with any specific requirements or commitments of the adopted SIP. The TIP does not prohibit implementation of any SIP TCM, nor does it make it impossible to implement any SIP TCM.
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. III. EMISSIONS TESTS
General Description The transportation plan and program must pass a series of emissions tests to demonstrate conformity. These emissions tests relate to the pollutants and their precursors for which the Denver region is designated as attainment-maintenance of the NAAQS. The same tests apply for finding conformity of a short-range program as for a long-range plan. These pollutants and precursors include: • Carbon monoxide (CO). • Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as a precursor for ozone. • Nitrogen oxides (NOx) as a precursor for ozone (summertime estimate). • PM10. • Nitrogen oxides (NOx) as a precursor for PM10 (wintertime estimate). Each pollutant and precursor in specific geographic areas must pass a number of tests. The plan and program must respect the motor vehicle emissions budget in the applicable implementation plan or implementation plan submittal. Satisfying these tests generally involves demonstrating that relevant emissions in future years are less than or equal to the emissions budget found in the applicable maintenance plan. As required by 40 CFR 93.118, consistency with the motor vehicle emissions budget(s) must be demonstrated for each year for which the applicable implementation plan specifically establishes motor vehicle emissions budget(s), for the attainment year (if it is within the timeframe of the transportation plan), for the last year of the transportation plan’s forecast period, and for any intermediate years as necessary so that the years for which consistency is demonstrated by analysis are no more than ten years apart. In addition, when a maintenance plan has been submitted, emissions must be less than or equal to the motor vehicle emissions budget(s) established for the last year of the maintenance plan and any year for the which the maintenance plan establishes budgets. Applying these tests for the prescribed time periods for each of the pollutants results in 24 emissions tests as listed in Table 13. The analysis areas are shown in Figure 2.
3 Transportation model runs represent the beginning of a calendar year. Test dates listed in Table 1 refer to model run dates.
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Table 1 Conformity Emissions Tests
Pollutant and Area Tests
Carbon Monoxide in Denver Attainment Maintenance Area
4
2013 staging ≤ Budget of 1520 tons per day5
2015 staging ≤ Budget of 1520 tons per day 2020 staging ≤ Budget of 1520 tons per day
Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP ≤ Budget of 1520 tons per day
Carbon Monoxide in Longmont Attainment Maintenance Area
6
2010 staging ≤ Budget of 41 tons per day5
2015 staging ≤ Budget of 41 tons per day 2020 staging ≤ Budget of 41 tons per day
Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP ≤ Budget of 41 tons per day
PM10
2015 staging ≤ Budget of 51 tons per day 2020 staging ≤ Budget of 51 tons per day
Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP ≤ Budget of 51 tons per day
NOx associated with PM10
2015 staging ≤ Budget of 101 tons per day 2020 staging ≤ Budget of 101 tons per day
Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP ≤ Budget of 101 tons per day
VOC in Ozone Attainment Maintenance Area
2006 staging ≤ Budget of 119 tons per day5
2013 staging ≤ Budget of 119 tons per day5
2015 staging ≤ Budget of 119 tons per day 2020 staging ≤ Budget of 119 tons per day
Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP ≤ Budget of 119 tons per day
NOx in Ozone Attainment Maintenance Area
2006 staging ≤ Budget of 134 tons per day
5
2013 staging ≤ Budget of 134 tons per day5
2015 staging ≤ Budget of 134 tons per day 2020 staging ≤ Budget of 134 tons per day
Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP ≤ Budget of 134 tons per day
4 EPA approval is effective November 15, 2004. 5 This is the year the budget was established in the maintenance plan. 6 EPA approval is effective November 29, 2004.
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Technical Process The technical process used to estimate future pollutant emission levels is based on the latest planning assumptions in effect at the time of this conformity determination. Assumptions behind the analysis were derived from estimates of current and future population, employment, travel, and congestion most recently developed by DRCOG. Information concerning travel and congestion estimates was updated as part of this conformity finding process. The above-mentioned factors were used with the latest EPA emission model (MOBILE 6.2) to estimate emissions. Demographic Assumptions The population forecast for the nine-county Denver region in 2030 is 3,875,200. This is an increase of 46 percent or 1,216,400 over the year 2005 estimated population of 2,658,800. Employment is forecasted to be 2,364,800 in 2030 compared to the year 2005 estimate of 1,552,400, or an increase of 52 percent. Growth in these two areas will be the principal factor for the increased demand for travel on the region’s transportation facilities and services. Table 2 shows the latest forecasts of population and employment for 2005, 2015, 2020, and 2030 for the nine-county DRCOG area. Table 3 lists 2030 population and employment estimates by each of the nine counties.
Table 2 Population and Employment Forecasts
Nine County Metro Region 2005 2015 2020 2030
Population
2,658,800
3,073,300
3,340,100
3,875,200
Employment
1,552,400
1,964,700
2,122,700
2,364,800
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Table 3
2030 Population and Employment Estimates by County
Transportation Assumptions In order to complete the emissions tests, the 2015, 2020 and 2030 transportation networks must first be defined. A summary of the major highway and transit improvements included in this conformity finding is provided below. The detailed list of improvement projects by completion year is displayed in Appendix A. The most significant highway projects included in the Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP are listed below. Regionally significant projects in the 2007-2012 TIP include: • Federal Boulevard from Alameda to 6th Avenue: widen roadway to six lanes. • US-85 from C-470 to Castle Rock: widen roadway to four lanes. • US-285 from Foxton to Jefferson County line: widen roadway to four lanes, improve
intersections; • SH-121/Wadsworth Boulevard at Grandview Avenue (BNSFRR): grade separation. • Arapahoe Road at Parker Road: new grade-separated interchange. • I-70/SH-58 interchange reconstruction • SH-83 from Bayou Gulch Road to Hilltop Road: widen roadway to six lanes. The Fiscally Constrained RTP specifies financially constrained highway and transit transportation system improvements and resulting networks to be completed by the year 2030. Major regional highway projects in the Fiscally Constrained RTP using federal and state resources include: • SH-121/Wadsworth Boulevard from 36th Avenue to 46th Avenue: widen roadway to six lanes.
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• SH-121/Wadsworth Parkway from 92nd Avenue to SH-128/120th Avenue: widen roadway to six lanes.
• 104th Avenue from Colorado Boulevard to US-85: widen roadway to four lanes. • Colorado Boulevard from I-76 to 92nd Avenue: new four-lane road. • I-25 South from Douglas Lane to Meadows Parkway: widen roadway to six lanes. • I-25 South from Meadows Parkway to Lincoln Avenue: widen roadway to eight lanes. • I-70 Viaduct (East Corridor): Brighton Boulevard to Colorado Boulevard: roadway
reconstruction and interchanges. • US-285 from Park County Line to Richmond Hill Road: widen roadway to four lanes and
upgrade intersections to interchanges. • US-36 from Wadsworth Boulevard to Sheridan Boulevard: widen roadway to six lanes. • US-36 at Wadsworth Boulevard (includes 120th Avenue extension): interchange
reconstruction. • US-85 at Bromley Lane: new interchange. • SH-83 from Bayou Gulch Road to Hilltop Road: widen roadway to six lanes. Proposed 2007- Cycle 1 amendments to the 2030 MVRTP, which include just locally- funded projects, that are found to conform in May 2007 are: • New interchange at I-25 North Meadows Drive in Castle Rock, Douglas County • Widening of Alameda Parkway from Bear Creek Blvd to McIntyre St. in Jefferson County • Widening of Alameda Parkway from McIntyre St. to Rooney Road (Jefferson County) The 2007-2012 TIP advances a number of regionally significant projects. They include: • Federal Boulevard from Alameda to 6th Avenue: widen roadway to six lanes. • US-85 from C-470 to Castle Rock: widen roadway to four lanes. • US-285 from Foxton to Jefferson County line: widen roadway to four lanes, improve
roadway. • Arapahoe Road at Parker Road: new grade-separated interchange. • I-70/SH-58 and Ward Road (south ramps) Interchanges: construct new ramps. • West Corridor, Central Corridor to Jefferson County Center: new light rail, stations, park-n-
Rides. • Gold Line, Denver Union Station to Ward Road: new light rail, stations, park-n-Rides. • I-225 Corridor, Parker Road to Smith Road: new light rail, stations, parking. • North Metro, Denver Union Station to 160th Avenue: new rail, stations, parking. • Southeast Corridor: rail, stations, parking. • Southeast Corridor, Lincoln Avenue to RidgeGate Parkway Extension: extend light rail with
stations, park-n-Ride. • Southwest Corridor, Mineral Station to C-470 Extension: extend light rail, new park-n-Ride. • US 36 Rail, Denver Union Station to Longmont: new rail, stations, parking. • US-36 BRT, Denver Union Station to Table Mesa: new slip ramps, access improvements, park-
n-Rides. • Central Corridor; 30th & Downing to 40th & 40th Extension: new light rail and stations. • East Corridor, Denver Union Station to Denver International Airport: new rail, stations, and
park-n-Rides.
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• Denver Union Station: intermodal center. • I-225, Parker Road to I-70: widen roadway to six lanes. • US-36, 120th Avenue Connection: build new six lane road. • 56th Avenue from Quebec to Havana: widen roadway to six lanes. • I-25/Ridgegate: new interchange. • SH-83 from Bayou Gulch Road to Hilltop Road: widen roadway to six lanes. Federal and state funded projects in the 2015 staging included those identified in the 2007-2012 TIP and additional priority projects that could be funded by 2015. A survey of local governments was performed in May 2006 to: (a) Update the status of Plan and TIP projects and (b): Ascertain non-federally funded projects expected to be completed by the year 2015 through 2030. The survey identified local principal arterials, minor arterials, and collectors, as well as major tollway facilities. All of these projects identified in this latest survey can be found in Appendix A: Transportation Network Assumptions, located at the end of this document. The 2015 rail rapid transit network includes the existing Central, Southwest, and Central Platte Valley rail lines, the Southeast light rail line which opened in 2006, and all of the rapid transit corridor lines that were approved by voters in RTD’s FasTracks plan on November 2, 2004. The HOV lane system includes the existing North I-25 high occupancy vehicle lane); the US-36 high occupancy vehicle lanes from Boulder to I-25; the existing Broadway/Lincoln bus lanes; and the existing Santa Fe high occupancy vehicle lanes. In addition, the plan reflects the already completed conversion of the I-25 North HOV lanes to a High Occupancy Toll (HOT) operation. The regional travel model was used to perform the travel forecasting. A summary description of the model is included in Appendix B. A more detailed description is documented in the DRCOG Compass Transportation Model Documentation and in a metadata report. Additional documentation is available on the assumptions and operation of the socio-economic model. These reports and papers are available for inspection at the DRCOG offices. This model includes a number of assumptions, which are supported by current regional experience. One set of modeling assumptions concerns transit operating policies. The model assumes that RTD will keep transit fares constant in current dollars. This is a logical assumption as RTD has an adopted policy of increasing fares in line with increases in the Consumer Price Index. RTD has last increased its fares in January 2006 to account for inflation and state requirements. Modeled fares for proposed new services are based on the most similar existing services. The model assumes that RTD would continue with its current approach in setting service levels for various areas of the region. The next fare increase is scheduled for 2009. The model assumes that the Northwest Parkway Authority and the E-470 Authority will continue to charge tolls on their facilities on a per-mile cost basis in constant dollars similar to current charges (16 cents per mile in 1996 dollars). Parking costs in downtown Denver were varied using the Denver parking cost model, which uses employment density and estimates of parking supply as variables. Parking costs were established outside the Denver Central Business District by surveying current parking costs for work and non-work trips, and assuming that these would remain constant over time. Air Quality Modeling Assumptions
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The APCD of the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment generated the Mobile 6.2 air pollution estimates. The conformity analysis for the 2007 Cycle 1 Amendments began in March 2007 after identification by RTD, CDOT, and local governments of projects they would be submitting for inclusion. The models and assumptions used by APCD in the analysis were consistent with the SIP modeling and analysis that lead to development of the Denver and Longmont SIPs for carbon monoxide. The technical support documentation for each of these SIPs is available for information at http://apcd.state.co.us/document/techdocs.html. Control Measures There are several actions or projects described or assumed in the SIPs that are federally enforceable control measures. PM10 street maintenance actions are one such control measure. PM10 Street Maintenance Actions DRCOG must demonstrate that future year estimates of PM10 emissions will be less than or equal to the maintenance PM10 emissions budgets to show conformity with the PM10 SIP. The mobile source PM10 budgets are 51 tons per day. AQCC Regulation 16 is essential to the control of mobile source emissions. Adopted on August 15, 1991, the regulation has undergone several revisions, with the latest occurring on April 19, 2001. Reentrained road dust in the Denver metropolitan area from winter street sanding causes between 40 and 60 percent of PM10 emissions. It is the single largest contributor to the PM10 problem7. Regulation 16 targets street sanding and sweeping practices. Since October 1, 1991, street sanding material providers have been required to meet set standards for the sanding materials they provide to state, city and county governments. The regulation applies to both new and recycled sanding materials. All material must meet requirements regulating their angularity, percent fines and degree of durability. The burden of material testing to meet these standards falls on the private companies supplying the materials. An independent laboratory must conduct all testing. Reductions in the applied amount of sanding material are also set for all of the local governments and street maintaining agencies (CDOT, RTD, E-470 Authority, Northwest Parkway Authority) within the nonattainment area. A reduction of 30 percent from their established baseline amount is mandated. Baseline amounts are typically based on 1989 practices. In the defined “foothills” area, a 20 percent reduction from the established baseline is mandated. In addition to the above requirements, the City and County of Denver and CDOT are required to reduce PM10 emissions by:
7 In June 1998, the Colorado Department of Transportation, with technical assistance of Midwest Research Institute, concluded a study of the role of sand in PM10 emissions. Findings from this study demonstrated that the percentage of the total PM10 emissions from road traffic that consist of road dust increases from about 50 percent to as much as 80 or 90 percent during the high impact 24-hour period following road sanding. Previously, the PM10 emissions analysis had been using a sand share of 33.8 percent or about half of the recent study findings. Increasing the role of sand in producing PM10 emission increases the benefits of reduced street sanding. Over the past few years, local governments, CDOT, RTD and the E-470 Public Highway Authority have made major strides to reduce PM10 emissions from street sand by reducing the amount of sand spread on the streets during snow storms by about 40 percent from 1989 street sanding levels and increasing the sweeping of sanded streets within four days of each snow storm from none to 40 percent.
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• 72 percent within the Denver central business district. • 50 percent within an area bounded by Federal Boulevard, Downing Street, 38th Avenue, and
Louisiana Avenue. Records and reports of the reductions and practices used must be submitted yearly to the APCD and the RAQC. Finally, Regulation 16 sets rules for street sweeping to achieve reductions in PM10 emissions. These rules include time requirements for sweeping after deployments of street sanding materials, definition of the sweeping techniques to be used and targeted areas for increased sweeping. Record keeping and reporting of dates, equipment use and areas swept are required under these rules. However, 2030 estimates of future emissions indicate that PM10 emissions would be about 58.7 tons per day after accounting for the impacts of Regulation 16. This is about 10 tons higher than the 51 tons per day emissions budget. Local governments and agencies were then asked to provide additional commitments to reduce emissions. Sixteen local governments and agencies have committed to additional street sanding and sweeping measures beyond Regulation 16 to further reduce mobile source PM10 emissions. Actions that can be employed to achieve PM10 reductions including: • Reducing the total amount of sanding materials used. • Using anti-icers, deicers, and other sand substitutes in place of sanding materials. • Street sweeping within four days of each snow event. The local governments and agencies decide on the combination of the above actions they will employ to meet their commitments.
The street sanding and sweeping commitments made by local governments, CDOT, and RTD are detailed in Appendix C. The mobile source PM10 emissions analysis shows emission levels of 47.7 tons per day in 2030. This is less than the mobile source PM10 emission budget of 51 tons per day. The Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP reserves $80 million over a 25-year period in CMAQ and local match funds for air quality programs and purchase. Some of this $80 million will fund additional sweeper and deicer equipment. The 2007-2012 TIP funds one sweeper and deicer equipment project. The PM10 maintenance plan also identifies a test whereby the region must demonstrate that transportation construction emissions do not exceed those assumed in the emissions budgets. The budgets were established on the assumption that all of the facilities in the 2020 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) would be constructed at a rate of 11.4 lane-miles per year for freeways and 62.7 lane-miles per year for major regional and principal arterials. To pass the test, the rate of lane-mile construction proposed in the Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP must be less than or equal to the rate of construction in the 2020 RTP. The rate of construction for the Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP is 6.6 lane-miles per year for freeways and 40.5 lane-miles per year for major regional arterials and principal arterials. Thus, the construction emissions of the Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP are assumed to be less than the construction emissions assumed in the budgets and the test is passed.
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Mobile Source Measures The regional emissions analysis does not reflect the air quality benefits of such travel demand management programs as DRCOG’s Commuter Services, Teleworking, EcoPass, and other transportation demand management actions. In addition, other programs whose benefits are more difficult to ascertain, are not fully incorporated into the model. Examples of such programs include compressed workweeks and programs initiated after 1998.
The model also accounts for the reductions created by the regional Traffic Signal System Improvement Program (TSSIP), which is a program in the TIP. The goal of this program is to ensure that the region’s traffic signals operate in a safe manner that makes the most efficient use of arterial street capacity. The efficiency objectives include: • Minimizing vehicle stops. • Minimizing travel delay. • Minimizing disruption caused by malfunctioning equipment. The major components of the TSSIP include: • A capital improvement program that provides intersection control equipment and installs
communications links to allow signals to operate as a system. • A program to retime signals in a coordinated fashion to improve corridor travel time through
accomplishment of the above objectives. In 2002, speed-and-delay runs were conducted on corridors in the region. The speeds in the model were then adjusted to match the speeds that were observed in the speed-and-delay runs. Consequently, the TSSIP, and its benefits to air quality, is reflected in the model. Emission Test Results The results of the emissions tests are reported in Table 4. The emissions estimates were generated by APCD using the latest demographic forecasts, transportation inputs, and emissions models. The test results do not indicate any failures in the horizon years of the program or plan that would lead to a finding of non-conformity. A qualitative test is required for years prior to 2013 in Denver for carbon monoxide. The 2015 carbon monoxide estimate is 1070 tons per day, which is below the budget. The carbon monoxide emissions for years prior to 2013 should then be equal to or lower than the 1,520 tons per day that applies to later years. No other factors (such as stationary sources) are expected to cause a violation. Qualitative assessments for years prior to 2015 are required for PM10. The region should not violate the federal air quality standard as the region is currently only 67 percent of the federal health standard, and the 2015 estimate for direct PM10 is 38.1 tons per day and 48 tons per day for NOx associated with PM10. Because both of these estimates are below the 51 ton per day direct PM10 and 101 tons per day NOx budgets, no violation is expected in years prior to 2015. Interpolation is not needed under federal regulations as quantitative analyses were completed for 2015. The Denver region was below all of the standards listed in Table 1. If the region were to fail to demonstrate conformity with the new eight-hour ozone standard by 2007, the region would have
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two possible requirements to establish conformity for eight-hour ozone. The first requirement would be that the region must pass the one-hour ozone test. This was accomplished as demonstrated above. The second requirement would be that the region perform one of the following two tests: • Build vs. no build. • Build is less than base case.
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Table 4
Conformity Emissions Test Results Pollutant and Area Test Result (Tons per day) Pass/Fail
Carbon Monoxide in Denver Attainment Maintenance Area
2013 Staging ≤ Budget8
2015 Staging ≤ Budget9
2020 Staging ≤ Budget10
Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP ≤ Budget10
1152.6< 1520 1070< 1520 968 <1520 1038< 1520
Pass Pass Pass Pass
Carbon Monoxide in Longmont Attainment Maintenance Area
2010 Staging ≤ Budget11
2015 Staging ≤ Budget9
2020 Staging ≤ Budget10
Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP ≤ Budget10
36.0< 41 28.5< 41 26.5< 41 28.7< 41
Pass Pass Pass Pass
PM10 2015 Staging ≤ Budget 2020 Staging ≤ Budget
Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP ≤ Budget
38.1< 51 41.3< 51 47.7< 51
Pass Pass Pass
NOx associated with PM10 2015 Staging ≤ Budget
9
2020 Staging ≤ Budget10
Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP ≤ Budget10
48< 101 35 < 101 27 < 101
Pass Pass Pass
Ozone VOC in One-Hour Ozone Attainment Maintenance Area
2006 Staging ≤ Budget12
2013 Staging ≤ Budget13
2015 Staging ≤ Budget14
2020 Staging ≤ Budget15
Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP ≤ Budget15
86.2< 119 59.6< 119 52< 119 45 < 119 41 < 119
Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass
NOx in One-Hour Ozone Attainment
Maintenance Area
2006 Staging ≤ Budget16
2013 Staging ≤ Budget17
2015 Staging ≤ Budget14
2020 Staging ≤ Budget15
Fiscally Constrained 2030 RTP ≤ Budget15
115.2< 134 67.6< 134 54< 134 40 <134 32 < 134
Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass
Based on the boundary established for the 8-hour ozone area the 2030 build scenario emissions for VOC and NOx are less than the base case (2002) estimated emissions for VOC and NOx. It should be noted that the boundary for the 1-hour ozone area differs from that established for the 8-hour area (40 CFR 81.306 as revised on April 30,2004). For the 8-hour area the build scenario emissions are 44 tons per day for VOC and 33 tons per day for NOx, while the base case (2002) emissions are 172.6 tons per day for VOC and 177.6 tons per day for NOx.
18 Thus, if necessary, conformity for eight-hour ozone could be demonstrated.
8 2013 derived from interpolation of 2005 estimate of 1483 tons per day calculated using 2.0% oxygenated fuels, and 2015 estimate of 1070 tons per day calculated using 1.7% oxygenated fuels. 9 Inventories based on the CO redesignation request strategies: 1.7% oxygenated fuels, existing cut-points, biennial I/M 240 w/4-myr exemption, and mechanic training. 10 Inventories based on the CO redesignation request strategies: 3.1% oxygenated fuels, existing cut-points, biennial I/M 240 w/4-
myr exemption, and mechanic training. 112010 derived from interpolation of 2005 estimate of 43.4 tons per day calculated using 2.0% oxygenated fuels and 2015 estimate
of 28.5 tons per day calculated using 1.7% oxygenated fuels. 12 2006 derived from interpolation of 2005 estimate of 90 tons per day and 2015 estimate of 52 tons per day.
13 2013 derived from interpolation of 2005 estimate of 90 tons per day and 2015 estimate of 52 tons per day.
14Same strategies as footnote 9 except no oxygenated fuels since this is a summer inventory.
15Same strategies as footnote 10 except no oxygenated fuels since this is a summer inventory
162006 derived from interpolation of 2005 estimate of 122 tons per day and 2015 estimate of 54 tons per day.
172013 derived from interpolation of 2005 estimate of 122 tons per day and 2015 estimate of 54 tons per day.
APPENDIX B TRANSPORTATION MODEL CALIBRATION DESCRIPTION
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APPENDIX B TRANSPORTATION MODEL CALIBRATION DESCRIPTION
Introduction In support of the conformity determination for the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), the Denver Regional Council of Governments’ (DRCOG) Metro Vision Resource Center employed the Regional Socio-economic Model together with Compass, the updated regional travel modeling system. Compass is the product of the Refresh Phase of the Integrated Regional Model (IRM) project, initiated in 2002 and expected to continue through 2006. In the mid-1990s, DRCOG, Regional Transportation District (RTD), Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT), and other regional planning partners decided to do a comprehensive update of the Denver Regional Travel Model. The project participants realized the needs for information were well beyond the capabilities of the then-current model. They also saw the benefits of on-going research and enhancements of travel modeling theory and practice to enable them to better address issues. As in most research fields, travel and land-use modeling was advancing and the regional partners wanted to keep pace with these advances. The first step in this effort was to conduct the Travel Behavior Inventory (TBI) project, to provide more up-to-date and detailed data on which to base a new modeling system. The TBI project involved multiple surveys of travel in the Denver metropolitan area, including:
• The Household Survey – a travel diary survey that gathered complete travel information for an assigned day for approximately 5,000 households;
• The Front Range Travel Survey - a survey of vehicles entering and leaving the metropolitan area;
• The Commercial Vehicle Survey – a survey that gathered complete travel information from more than 800 commercial vehicles on an assigned day; and
• The Non-respondent Populations Project - an effort to evaluate whether those who did not respond to the survey exhibited different travel behavior than people who did respond to the survey.
The bulk of this survey work was conducted in 1997-1998, with data “cleaning” and summary conducted through 2001. Immediately following the conclusion of the TBI project, the Integrated Regional Model (IRM) project was initiated, and began using TBI data to build a new modeling system for the region. The IRM project is conducted in three phases. The first of these phases was the Refresh Phase, which resulted in the development of the Compass travel model, as further described below. The second phase, the Vision Phase, is also complete, and produced a “blueprint” for a next-generation, activity-based travel and socio-economic modeling system. The third phase, the Update Phase, is in its early stage and will implement the blueprint. The Model Refresh Phase: Description and Elements The overall goal of the IRM project was to completely re-build the regional modeling system, incorporating advances in research and practice, so that the model could better address regional planning issues. However, project participants felt that the needs of the regional planning process were more immediate, and so conducted the Model Refresh Phase to develop
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such a set of early-implementation improvements. Work on the Refresh Phase of the IRM project is now complete, and included the following improvements:
• Transfer of the regional model from the DOS-based MinUTP software package to the Windows-based TransCAD software package. The model is now run on TransCAD version 4.8, an upgrade from version 4.7, on which the previous conformity (2006-Cycle 2) was run. The most significant consequence of this upgrade is the faster model processing time.
• Conversion from the old 1,530 TAZ system to a new 2,664 Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) system – Figure 1 shows the new TAZ system used with Compass. A geographic information system version of this map may be found on DRCOG’s website at http://www.drcog.org/index.cfm?page=Maps.
• A complete re-estimation of the trip generation model using the new TBI data. • A complete re-estimation of the trip distribution model using the new TBI data, including
use of a limited new set of k-factors to adjust gravity model outcomes to better match observed travel patterns.
• Update and simplification of the model element that assigns each TAZ to one of five area types based on employment and population density.
• A complete re-development of the model element that predict parking costs for future years in high-density areas such as the Denver central business district.
• Numerous adjustments to the mode choice model to produce better bus and rail ridership estimates, while maintaining consistency with federal modeling guidelines.
• Use of observed speed data in trip distribution and highway assignment processes so that the model now reproduces both observed volumes and observed speeds in the validation year.
The improvements described above left the model’s traditional four-step structure intact, but resulted in significant improvements in the accuracy of the model’s outcomes. All the primary model elements, including the socio-economic model elements, are briefly described below, and Figure 2 shows the flow of steps in the Compass model process. Demographic Development Estimation DRCOG works with a panel of economists and planners from both private and public sectors to review current growth trends and evaluate the output of a regional forecast model. This model relates the regional economy to national forecasts by industrial sector. Once employment levels are predicted, a demographic model is used to determine the migration levels needed to generate the labor force to fill the expected jobs. The forecasts are reviewed annually with major revisions expected every five years.
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Figure 1 Compass Traffic Analysis Zone System
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Figure 2 Socioeconomic Model Elements and Flow
Small Area Development Estimates To provide development data at a level of detail necessary for the travel model, the regional urban activity forecasts are disaggregated into 2,664 transportation analysis zones (TAZs). The allocation to TAZs is carried out based on an attractiveness index for each TAZ, which in effect develops a desirability “score” for each TAZ. This score is based on roughly 20 variables such as miles of arterial roadway in the TAZ, rapid transit service, vacant land, local land use plans, growth over the last decade, water/wastewater service, environmental constraints, and income characteristics. Separate attractiveness indices and allocations are developed for commercial and retail employment, and for households. The zones are filled with new development in the given category starting with the TAZ with the highest attractiveness index. The amount of development allocated to a TAZ is controlled by the amount of vacant land in the zone available for residential or employment uses, the expected density in the zone, and other factors. The model works its way through the list of zones until all of the growth is allocated. The effects of several regional planning policies also are taken into account in the model: open space plans affect the amount of developable land in the relevant TAZs; the regional urban growth boundary affects expected densities, and the development totals in TAZs outside that boundary; and planned urban centers affect the development capacity in the TAZs in which they are planned.
Panel Review of Model Variables
DRCOG Draft Forecasts by TAZ (June/September 2004
Panel Review of Variable Weights for TAZ scoring
Community Review of Draft Forecasts
Regional Employment and Population forecast control totals
Utility Functions
Maximum allowable jobs and house-holds (capacity)
Allocate development to TAZs
Final 2030 Forecasts of employment and households
Socioeconomic Model
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Figure 3 shows a flow diagram of the process of socioeconomic forecasting in the Denver region. Highway and Transit System The Denver Regional Travel Model includes a detailed description of the area’s transportation system. The highway network is represented by over 25,000 directional road segments, described according to location, length, number of lanes, functional classification, and area type. High-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes also are represented as special links. Tollway links are assessed an additional impedance to reflect toll charges. The model also includes a fully detailed representation of transit facilities, including all bus and rapid transit lines, park&ride lots, bus stops, and walk access/egress routes. Bus routes follow the same highway network as automobiles trips, and bus speeds are based on auto speeds. Rail speeds are developed based on transit schedule information. Capture areas for park&ride lots are quite broad, permitting trip-makers in the model to select the lot that produces the shortest overall transit path to their destination. As part of the process of estimating highway and transit use, minimum impedance paths are calculated using time, distance and toll cost over the highway and HOV system, and time and cost over the transit system. Trip Generation Trip generation in the Denver Regional Travel Model is based on a “cross-classification” model that makes use of the differences in trips per day made by different types of households. Smaller households make fewer trips than larger households and lower income households make fewer trips (especially work trips) than higher income households. Trip generation is conducted separately for the following six trip purposes:
• Home-Based Work: Trips between a worker’s home and place of employment. These trips are generated separately in three income groups.
• Home-Based Non-Work: Trips between home and any other destination for any non-work purpose.
• Non-Home Based: Trips that have neither end at home, regardless of purpose. • Commercial trips: Truck and other trips generated at places of business. • Internal/External Trips: Trips with one end inside the model area and one end outside. • External/External Trips: Trips with both ends outside the model area (i.e., trips passing
through the model area.)
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Figure 3
Travel Model Elements and Flow
Regional Growth Totals
Small Area Development Estimates
Number of Trips
Trip Destination
Travel Mode
Travel Path
Highway & Transit System
Factors Considered
National Economic Forecasts
Industrial Base
Births/Deaths
In-Migration
Vacant Land
Past Growth
Water Supply
Roadways & Transit
Local Land Use Plans
Household Size
Income
Employment Type
Special Generators
Travel Time
Opportunities
Type of Trip
Income
Travel Time
Cost
Travel Time
Congestion
Cost
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The model includes relatively few special generator locations (i.e., locations at which trip generation behavior is significantly different than the regional average.) Special generation is performed for the Denver International Airport and for the Auraria Higher Education Campus. Trip Distribution The Denver Regional Travel Model uses a standard “gravity model” process to distribute all trips except external-external trips. A gravity model assigns larger numbers of trips between large zones (zones with a lot of development) that are close together, and fewer trips between smaller zones (zones with a small amount of development) that are farther apart. Separate gravity models were developed for each trip purpose, with distinct friction (calibration) factors for each. Separate friction factors also were developed for work trips for each of the three income classes. In addition, special ‘K’ factors were applied to the Boulder urbanized area to account for the fact that Boulder is somewhat more self-contained (i.e., both ends of a trip are somewhat more often in the Boulder area) than the regional friction factors would otherwise suggest. K-factors also were developed for a few other locations, to better match observed data in the base year, compensating for insensitivities in the gravity model process. Also, special adjustments were made for Denver International Airport trips, to better reflect the results of an air passenger survey conducted in 1995. The most recent version of Compass includes an update of trip attraction rates for DIA, to better match counted volumes on Pena Boulevard. Mode Choice Compass includes a mode choice component that estimates the number of trip-makers that will select each available travel mode, given the travel conditions that each system user faces, depicted in the model as described above in the section “Highway and Transit System.” Separate mode choice models are used for each trip purpose, to take into account the fact that people use different travel modes differently for different trip purposes. For example, people make different use of transit for work trips than they do for shopping trips, as shopping involves transporting purchased items that may be difficult to carry on transit vehicles. Internal work trips are estimated using a multinomial logit model for the following modes:
• Drive-alone; • Two-person carpool; • Three-plus person carpool; • Transit via walk access; and • Transit via auto access.
For non-work trips, the choice is simply between auto and transit. All mode choice models take into account trip time and cost. The model also is calibrated to match observed trip data separately for four geographic sub-markets in which trip-makers exhibit distinctly different behavior: the Denver central business district, the City of Boulder, trips to Denver International Airport, and the remainder of the region. Treating each of these areas separately ensures that the model does not match a region-wide total of observed transit travel simply by making compensating errors in important areas of the region. The most recent version of Compass includes a re-calibration of the DIA geographic sub-market, so that mode choice outcomes better match counted volumes on Sky-Rider services. Travel Time-of-Day
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It is obvious to anyone who drives that congestion varies throughout the day, with some periods highly congested, and others very little. To reflect this reality as faithfully as possible, the roadway system depicted in the model includes estimates of the hourly capacity of different types of roads, with freeways having the greatest capacity, and roads such as minor arterials having considerably less. To model the variation of congestion through the day, the 24-hour automobile trips produced by the mode choice model are divided into several time “slices,” based on TBI data showing the start time of each trip. Subject to the limits imposed by the four-step modeling process, the more such slices, the more accurate are the resulting congestion estimates. As the level of detail of congestion forecasts required for both facility design projects and air quality modeling in the Denver region demands a high degree of accuracy, Compass subdivides daily trips into ten different periods of the day. Network Assignment Automobile trips are assigned to the highway network via a “user equilibrium” algorithm, after commercial trips have been loaded first using an “all-or-nothing process.” The all or nothing process simply assigns trips to the shortest path between origin and destination, ignoring possible congestion effects that might cause trips to take different paths. The user equilibrium process assigns the trips between each origin and each destination TAZ in such a way that, at the end of the process, no trip can reduce its travel time by changing its path. In other words, taking into account the congestion produced by all other trips in the region, each trip is following its minimum path. High-occupancy vehicles (HOV) are loaded simultaneously with single-occupant vehicles (SOV). Transit assignment is performed separately, using an all-or-nothing algorithm that does not take into account the possibility that high demand on some transit routes may motivate some riders to shift routes. Finally, the model is run several times, feeding back the output speeds to the input stages that require them as input (among them, the trip distribution stage) until the output speeds and the input speeds match. The model also takes into account the effect of toll costs in roadway route choice by converting toll costs into equivalent time cost using an estimated value of time for automobile trip-makers. The most recent version of Compass includes adjustments to the highway value of time, and to the approach to calculating generalized cost of automobile operation, to improve the model’s ability to match counted volumes on toll facilities, particularly E-470. Model Calibration As part of the IRM Refresh Phase, an extensive model calibration and validation process was undertaken, to ensure that the model was able to reproduce observed travel for the base year of 1997, and that it also was able to reproduce observed travel in a later year for which data was available (2001). The model was calibrated to the 1997 data, as that was the year in which the household travel data was collected, and validated for the year 2001. In the calibration process, model parameters estimated using the TBI travel survey data are adjusted to match observed transit and highway counts. Since the 2006 Cycle 2 Conformity Cycle, there has been some small-scale recalibration of the transit model. In the validation process, this same model was run for the year 2001, to assess its ability to successfully match observed data for another year. The following data were used in the calibration and validation process:
• Approximately 1,300 traffic counts (1997 and 2001 combined). • Total transit ridership for all bus and rail lines for both 1997 and 2001. • “Spot” transit ridership (at particular points on a given transit line) for approximately 12
screenlines. • Daily vehicle counts at all park-n-Ride lots in the region.
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• Address locations for all vehicles parked at the principal park-n-Ride lots on the Southwest Corridor LRT line.
• Trip purpose and origin-destination data for Southwest Corridor LRT line riders. • Speed observations taken at 114 locations in the region, during seven periods of the
day. The traffic counts were used to compare modeled to observed roadway volumes across screenlines (long lines drawn across the region to permit comparison of sub-regional traffic flow); across cordon lines (circles drawn around key areas such as the CBD to permit comparison of trips into and out of the area); and for total volume and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) subdivided by facility type and area type. Transit counts were used in a similar manner, especially to ensure the model’s reasonable reproduction of transit ridership by sub-model (such as rail versus bus). Speed data was used to ensure that the model produced a reasonable approximation of speeds by facility type and area type, at the same time as it was reproducing observed traffic volumes in those same categories. Tables 1 and 2 show basic outcomes of vehicle miles of travel, compared to highway performance monitoring system (HPMS) VMT estimates, and modeled speeds compared to observed speeds. Note that the VMT totals in Table 2 reflect the fact that DRCOG has counts for only a subset of roadway segments in the system, whereas the HPMS attempts to estimate VMT for all system segments.
Table 1 2001 Validation Year: Observed versus Modeled Average Speeds
Period Modeled (mph) Observed (mph) AM Peak 39 37 Average Midday 47 50
Table 2
2001 Validation Year: Observed versus Modeled Vehicle Miles of Travel Modeled Observed Percent Difference HPMS VMT 54.8 million 55.2 million -0.7% VMT on links with counts in DRCOG database
19.4 million 18.6 million 4.3%
The following general conclusions may be drawn from these outcomes:
• While speed outcomes are not perfect, the model quite closely matches observed speeds, with the model being slightly faster than observations in the AM peak, and slightly slower than observations in the Midday.
• While it is typical that the model results fall somewhere between VMT totals implied by the HPMS and by DRCOG ‘s counts, DRCOG has calibrated the model so that it “errs on the high side;” that is to say, that it’s apparent error is to overestimate the counted VMT, rather than to underestimate the HPMS VMT to any significant extent. In this case, the balance point that DRCOG felt appropriate underestimates HPMS VMT slightly, but the accompanying level of overestimation of counted VMT led DRCOG to the conclusion that the final level of VMT was in fact conservative. In this way, DRCOG ensures that air quality evaluation performed using the model is conservative (based on VMT that is more likely to be overestimated than underestimated.)
Air Quality Modeling
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Formal air pollutant emissions modeling is conducted by the APCD. However, DRCOG, the APCD, and other agencies work closely together in this effort, both in developing the modeling techniques, assumptions, and parameters, and in executing the model runs. Travel model results are, of course, one of the principal inputs to the air pollutant emissions model. The model produces estimates of the amount of emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and particulate matter (PM10) generated by motor vehicles. The results are then combined with numerous assumptions concerning meteorology and atmospheric chemical reactions to produce air pollutant concentration estimates.
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APPENDIX C PM10 STREET EMISSIONS REDUCTION COMMITMENTS
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APPENDIX D U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION CONFORMITY FINDING
(TO BE PROVIDED)
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APPENDIX E LIST OF ACRONYMS
ACT Agency Coordination Team APCD Air Pollution Control Division AQCC Air Quality Control Commission BNSFRR Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad CAMP Continuous Air Monitoring Project CDOT Colorado Department Of Transportation CMAQ Congestion Mitigation Air Quality CO Carbon Monoxide DRCOG Denver Regional Council Of Governments EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency FHWA Federal Highway Administration FTA Federal Transit Administration HOT High-Occupancy Toll HOV High-Occupancy Vehicle MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization MVRTP Metro Vision Regional Transportation Plan NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NO Nitrogen Oxide PM Particulate Matter Ppm Parts per Million RAQC Regional Air Quality Council RTD Regional Transportation District RTP Regional Transportation Plan SIP State Implementation Plan TCM Transportation Control Measures TDM Transportation Demand Management TIP Transportation Improvement Program TMA Transportation Management Area TMO Transportation Management Organization TSSIP Traffic Signal System Improvement Program VOC Volatile Organic Compounds