Fight of giants v 0.1

Fight of Giants

Preserving the Status Quo

Variables• Demand size

High demand of services exiists. Even with no such innovative services developed and not so wide array to choose from some part of the demand is still strong

• Vertical

By definition this scenario is ruled by huge players with highly integrated business models. Efficiency is the key driver here. Smaller players (comparatively very small) can find their way in subordinate roles or very specialized niches

• Global

Little if any place for regional players. After a long and usually troubled process on regional consolidation some type of transnational regional duopoly is established. Medium players are axed out of the market

• Regulation

A very hard balance is found between the wealth creation and monopoly rules. Very thought equilibrium points and many transnational disputes must be solved in an almost by day pattern. The state created demand is low (in relative terms)

• Confidence

High confidence level is achieved in the society. Concerns about security, digital footprint etc … are well managed but in very restrictive way

• Sustainability

In spite of being an important demand, the market around sustainability is not the core but the main source of new demand

The inherent conservative forces driving this scenario keep the global market size in a low level (compared with the best scenario). The efficient ways (#maneraseficientes) services demand remains strong and the weaker lifestyle services (#manerasdevivir) market volume can stop the overall market decline but not create a strong growth pattern

Fight of Giants

Demand size

Vertical

Global

Regulation Confidence Sustainability

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Market Forces Lifestyle services

Efficient ways

The Old decline

Squeezed Manufacturer

Lifestyle services

A limited choices array and not so appealing and compelling services limits strongly the growth on this market area. Anyhow a well established confidence environment and the very own market dynamics allows some offers to grow. The offer/demand gaps are not full covered and the market size is almost insignificant if compared with the “Fruitful cooperation” scenario

Efficient ways

The efficiency business is mainly the playfield of huge corporations (Utilities, Telcos, big Industrial players, even banks and the public administration) so a scenario with such players reinforced is not bad for this market force. Even not including big social changes this area demand will be huge and support the main market growth

The Old decline

Traditional service revenues including voice, sms, and connectivity will be fiercely defended by the incumbents and will try by hook or crook to stop their decline. Unhappily even in a moderate path the associated revenues will decline. Some of these revenues will go to the efficient ways where they will be amplified somehow.

Squeezed ManufacturerThe curse for the efficiency in the old services will generate winners and losers and those standing on the base of the value chain will probably pay the big part of the party. Telco equipment manufacturers serving huge customers will consolidate (even more) and struggle to survive. Becoming their selves service companies will be no easy and their place in the R&D future will be heavily compromised

“El Coloso” has been recently attributed to a Goya´s disciple and recalls the fascination and fear that giants produce

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Images courtesy of: mn-que , ortonesque, sepavo, blary54 in http://www.sxc.hu. Goya pictures: “Pelea a Garrotazos” and “El Coloso”