Fibre broadband futures

F ibre BROADBAND futures T h e a r t o f t h e p o s s i b l e / n e c e s s a r y

P e t e r C o c h r a n e

cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org

Green Secure

Available Adaptable

Future Proof People Sparse

Fixed & Mobile People & Things

Transitory & Stable Resilient & Reliable

N ET F R I C T I O N

C a p a c i t y a n d c o n n e c t i v i t y d e f i n e n e t w o r k l o s s e s t h a t u l t i m a t e l y i m p a c t t h e G D P

Poor infrastructure ALWAYS signifies a poor economy

NET TRAFFIC Growth

2000 - 2015

Exponential and no sign of slowing - x 2 < 18 months

>99% of global traffic transported by opticalfibre - the only medium capable…

..international, national, regional, local networks

<5% of net traffic is by 3 and 4G connection - wifi ~ 50%, LAN ~ 45%

Voice

Data

Mobile Communication PB/(Month-Mese)

MOB I LE

2000 - 2015

More mobile (5G) can only be realised throughmore optical fibre in the local loop….

…open 3,4,5G and wifi at the end of every FTTP circuit is essential for the IoT and full mobility…

APP DOWNLOADS - B i l l ions

UK IS AN EU LEADER

UK

UK IS NOT A GLOBAL LEADER

“UK a long way south”

UK IS NOT A GLOBAL LEADER

UK

And in the midd le o f the EU pack !

~ 46 % of globaleconomic output ($32.3T) can benefit from

the Industrial Internet

Why is the net Important ?F u t u r e p r o s p e r i t y w i l l b e d e f i n e d b y b a n d w i d t h

Education Awareness Healthcare

Science Engineering Technology

Creativity Invention Sharing

Design Production Dleivery

Logistics Support After Care

Green +++++ ++++++

~ 46 % of globaleconomic output ($32.3T) can benefit from

the Industrial Internet

Why is the net Important ?F u t u r e p r o s p e r i t y w i l l b e d e f i n e d b y b a n d w i d t h

Education Awareness Healthcare

Science Engineering Technology

Creativity Invention Sharing

Design Production Dleivery

Logistics Support After Care

Green +++++ ++++++

After investing in a visionary Gbit/s network, the City of Chattanooga has transformed into a regional center for technology and innovation.

It is attracting entrepreneurs and technologists from around the country and boasts new business incubators and state-of-the-art public facilities.

Chattanooga has gone from hosting zero venture capital to at least five organized funds with investable capital.

exponential RISEBandwidth Demand outstrips supply

Netcos continue to ask the same dumb questions - why would anyone want :-

• 64kbit/s

• 256kbit/s

• 1Mbit/s

• 10Mbit/s

• 100Mbit/s

• 1000Mbit/s

• 10,000Mbit/s

...and what would they use it for ?

Cus

tom

er D

eman

d

Avai

labl

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BroadBand

So what of WIRELESS

You cannot defeat the laws of physicsMore towers (>>10x) are unacceptableUniversal coverage needs something new

3, 4 , 5G cannot supply by a BIG marg in

<5% of net traffic is by 3 and 4G connection - wifi ~ 50%, LAN ~ 45%

…open 3,4,5G and wifi at the end of every FTTP circuit is essential for the IoT and full mobility…

Symmetric

Asymmetric

leaders & Laggards

‘Up To’ and ‘Homes Passed’ culture predominates

‘Actually Delivered’ and‘Homes Connected’ arepredominant…

W h e r e a r e t h e w o r l d l e a d e r s h e a d i n g

H E g ets i t !A n d h a s a n a t i o n a l p l a n

T h e f u n d i n g o f c i t i e s a n d c o m m u n i t i e s t o D I Y F T T H /P / B @ 1 G b i t / s t o a t t r a c t n e w b u s i n e s s a n d n e w s t a r t s t o r e j u v i n a t e t h e e c o n o m i e s o f f a i l e d a r e a s

obama o n t h e i nt e rN ETS e e s E U c u l t u r e a s i n n o v a t i o n a n d c h a n g e a v e r s e

"Our companies have created it, expanded it, perfected it in ways that they (Europe) can’t compete,"

t h e us a v i ewResult of and academic analysis

27 October 2015

Bhaskar Chakravorti and Ravi Shankar Chaturvedi

Europe has a digital crisis that has severe consequences for their global competitiveness.

In the ‘Stand Out Category’ of the Global Digital Evolution Index….. …only Switzerland, Ireland, and Estonia, made it!

continent is in the midst of a “digital recession.”

Do we really believe that the UK will become a world leader from the back of the pack ??

If you own an old telephone network every new opportunity looks like an old network upgrade with bigger and better routers…time after time after time…

copper h eadsWinning with 150 year old technology

copper realityW h a t y o u g e t i s n ’ t t h e p r o m i s e

As more users load the same cab le i t get ’s progress ive worse whi l s t s t i l l sa t i s f y ing the ‘Up To’ Promise

Th i s s i tua t ion i s no t go ing to improve o r ge t any be t te r un le s s we manage to change the laws o f phys i c s !

D o w n l o a d O n l y U p l o a d ~ 1 0 %

Every £1Bn spent on the past…

Sees us £2Bn further away from the future !

UK Investment

Fault

Pron

e

Cloud

Killing

Energy hungrySuper

Slo

w

50% of allare due to me !

Faults

Future Limiting

Reverse gear

Loved by vandals

Big and ugly

Hated by councils

Anti-Green Unsustainable

IM IoT TXT B2B C2B C2C eMail TeleCare eTrading Telephony TeleSurgery TeleTraining TeleMedicine Tele Education TeleMaintenance Audio Conferencing Collaborative Supply Collaborative Design Collaborative Games Collaborative Working Collaborative Farming Collaborative Research Collaborative Production

Broadcast TV Broadcast Radio Video on Demand Audio on Demand Music on demand TeleInspection TeleControl ????

Symmetric

An initial ‘Straw Man’ listingPeter Cochrane 1/9/15

Collaborative Computing Collaborative Manufacture 3D Design & Manufacture Sustainable Supply Chains

Sustainable Production Sustainable Recycling Distributed Intelligence Distributed Computing

Video Conferencing Social Networking

Virtual Computing Cloud Computing Sensor Networks Logistics Control Home Working Mobile Futures Virtual Storage Photo Albums Video Albums Virtual Office Smart Cities

????

21C network servicesAsymmetric

IM & TXT et al are stuck in a bandwidth limiting time warp and so are many other services unable to upgraded!

The love of copper lost the UK a £3Bn computer gaming industry (+++) to SEA due to the lack of bandwidth and

connectivity

Copper cables suffer from crosstalk and high attenuation that renders the very expensive and asymmetric

• 74% of digital companies operate outside of London

• Digital job growth to outperform all other categories by 2020

• 1.46M people (7.5%) of workforce employed in the digital industries

• Highest rates of digital employment: London, Bristol & Bath, Reading, Manchester

• Highest Average Co Turnover: Manchester, Belfast, Sheffield, London and South Wales

• Highest digital Co density: Brighton, Hove, London, Reading, Edinburgh, Cambridge

• Fastest growth: Liverpool, London, Belfast, Manchester, Bournemouth, Brighton, Hove,

South Wales, Bristol, Bath

UK DIGITAL ECONOMYExtremely diverse, distributed and in dire need

IoTSmart CitiesCloud ComputingLeading Edge Start Ups

Sustainable CommunitiesCompetitive EconomyEnabled WorkforceImproved MobilityTele-educationTelemedicine

NO FTTP CASUALT I ES

Industry and Institutions Frozen out of markets Emigration of the talented and capable GDP limited and progressively declining

fa r m e rs D I YJ F D I a n d C a n D o C u l t u r e

DIY Community Broadband Wins

FTTP aint rocket science >500 miles laid and growing!

Jersey telco transformation

•1Gbit/s bi-directional

•100% ducted - no overhead

•WiFi + 3G in every terminal

•Future proof and eco friendly

•Reduced Opex, Capex, Fault rates

•Profitability improved within 12 months

•Self funded + copper, lead, plastic recovery

•EU leading commercial community

•Island attracting new business

•FTTH/O/P - No Copper No Cabinets

The world leaders are mandating and building FTTH Gbit/s networks for today and into the future - 1Gbit/s is the base rate/starting point

T IME TO CONS IDER AND TH INKManagement by BS & misinformation is dangerous, damaging, big negative

The world laggards are hanging onto their 150 year old copper platforms and misguidedly building unreliable and non-ecological solutions that can never deliver onyesterdays demand let alone todays or that of the near future

A Tyranny of Propaganda Progressively Displacing Evidence and Wisdom

T IME TO CONS IDER AND TH INKIf incumbents dominate a market then all competition and innovation ceases

It might work in PR and politics but in

technology and economics it is fatal !!

A Tyranny of Truth To Displace a Warped Market Model

T IME TO CONS IDER AND TH INKThe UK needs a real competitive landscape with freedom to be different

Let incumbents and commercial companies do their own thing and choose their own course

Assist/fund communities to install the own FTTH systems

Support towns and cities to do their own thing and install dark networks

Progressively Displacing Evidence and Wisdom

Management by BS & misinformation is dangerous, damaging, big negative UK TO BE FROZEN OUT ?

No Smart Cities No eHealthCare No TeleEducation No Cloud Computing Ineffective IoT Systems Reduced Market Access Sidelined Service Economy Crippled Mobility/Flexibility Greater Friction/Inefficiency Disadvantage Manufacturing Loss of Existing Leadership Positions ++++

Bi furcat ing wor ld - leaders / laggards - f ibre /copper

Laggards Limited (Copper)

Leaders Unlimited (Fibre)Green Adaptive Pace Setting Future Proof Top Economies Can Do Anything Prime Innovators Leading Creators Market Dominating

The UK debate has lasted a very long time... and we are still not on the starting grid….

Thank You

cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org