Fibre Box Association (FBA) Data Services1].pdf · Fibre Box Association (FBA) Data Services ... U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics . ... Global Corrugated Forecasts 2011-2015, A

Fibre Box Association (FBA) Data Services

Dick Storat, Richard Storat & Associates

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics More Insight Up Front

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

20

25

30

35

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

(Bill

ion

squa

re fe

et)

U.S. Corrugated Shipments

2010 2011 2012 Percent Change 2012-to-dateSource: FBA

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics First Page Charts

75 80 85 90 95

100 105 110 115 120 125

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Inde

x: 2

000=

100

ATA Trucking Index Indexed Box ShipmentsSource: FBA, American Trucking Assn (ATA)

Indexed Corrugated Shipments Vs. ATA Trucking Index

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics First Page Charts

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

000 TonsU.S. Month-End Containerboard Inventories

at Mills & Corrugated Plants

Inventory Poly. (Inventory)Source: AF&PA, FBATrendline

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics First Page Charts

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

15

20

25

30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Box Plant Shipping Days

2011 2012 Mill Days Less Box Plant Shipping Days

Box PlantShipping Days

Mill Days - Box PlantShipping Days

Source: FBA

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics Mill & Box Plant Shipping Days Differ

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics Box Shipment Demand Indicators

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Inde

x (1

992=

100)

Box Shipments vs. U.S. Production of Non-Durable Goods

US Production Box Shipments Poly. (Box Shipments)

Source: Fibre Box Association, Federal Reserve

Box Shipment Polynomial Trend

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Purchasing Managers' Index

Above 50 indicates manufacturing expansion

Below 42.7 indicates economic recession

Below 50 indicates manufacturing contraction

Source: Institute for Supply Management

12

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics Box Shipment Demand Indicators

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Purchasing Managers' New Orders Index

Above 50 indicates expansion

Below 50 indicates contraction

Source: Institute for Supply Management

12

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics Box Shipment Demand Indicators

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

11J F M A M J J A S O N D

Inde

x (2

007

= 10

0)

Industrial Production Non-Durable Consumer Goods

2010 2011 2012 Percent change 2012-to-date12J

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics Box Shipment Demand Indicators

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Jan12

Inde

x (1

974

= 1.

00)

Source: FBA, Federal Reserve, RSA, Inc.

U.S. Box Shipments (msf) per Unit of US Industrial Production*(*42% Food; 38% Other Non Durables; 20% Durables, less Vehicles and Parts)

Scale

Annual Monthly

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics Box Shipment Demand Indicators

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09 Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

10 Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

11Fe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

12

$ B

illio

ns, S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d

U.S. Non-Durable Goods Trade Deficit

Imports Exports Net ImportsSource: Department of Commerce

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics Box Shipment Demand Indicators

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

07 08 09 10 11 12

Rat

io o

f Inv

ento

ry t

o Sa

les

(Mon

ths)

Inventory/Sales Ratios

Total Business Manufacturers Wholesalers RetailersSource: US Census Bureau

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics Box Shipment Demand Indicators

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$ B

illio

ns, S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d

U.S. Exports of Non-Durable Goods

2010 2011 2012 % Change YTD-Right Axis

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics Box Shipment Demand Indicators

• Remainder of report contains a wealth of data from which to extract insights on industry performance trends: • Shipments by 6 areas, 47 regions and by state • Monthly Value of Shipments & quarterly price index by area • Containerboard Inventory data sorted and presented by

- Linerboard and medium - Box plants and containerboard mills - Box plants by integrated and independent producers - Tons and Weeks of Supply

• Corrugator Containerboard Consumption • Mill Containerboard Production

U.S. Corrugated Industry Statistics A Wealth of Insightful Data

Knockdown Box Trade Statistics A new FBA Service: Insight into Trade Patterns

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Mill

ion

U.S

. Dol

lars

U.S. Corrugated Box Imports

Exports Imports Net Exports Poly. (Exports) Poly. (Imports) Poly. (Net Exports)

IMPORTS INCREASING - EXPORTS FLATTENING - NET EXPORTS PEAKED IN 2000

Knockdown Box Trade Statistics Quarterly Corrugated Trade Statistics Report

KEY PARAMETER 2011 VALUE % CHANGE FROM 2010

EXPORT VALUE $ 1.05 Billion 1.9%

IMPORT VALUE $0.32 Billion 9.9%

NET TRADE $0.74 Billion -1.1%

EXPORT VOLUME 734,184 Short Tons -4.2%

IMPORT VOLUME 172,174 Short Tons 6.8%

Knockdown Box Trade Statistics Quarterly Corrugated Trade Statistics Report

Knockdown Box Trade Statistics Quarterly Corrugated Trade Statistics Report

Knockdown Box Trade Statistics Quarterly Corrugated Trade Statistics Report

Knockdown Box Trade Statistics Quarterly Corrugated Trade Statistics Report

Knockdown Box Trade Statistics Quarterly Corrugated Trade Statistics Report

• A unique, significant benefit available only to FBA Members • Voluntary Survey completed during first quarter, released

May 2012 • FBA Members supply data for all plants

• 33 items per corrugated plant • 25 items per sheet plant • All carefully defined

• FBA verifies and compiles data, then destroys input data • No company data is disclosed to another company • Company reports show company average data

• Report distribution limited to: - Company’s FBA representative and Data Services Committee member - Others as directed only by Company’s FBA representative

• Only participating plants receive reports

Key Performance Indicators (KPI) A Valuable Benchmarking Survey

• Shipments – MSF & Tons • Gross Sales $ • Freight, Returns, Discounts • Variable costs – 4 categories excluding Net Fibre Cost • Fixed Cost & Overhead – 4 categories • Waste • Labor – 3 categories • Capital Expenditures • Receivables, Inventory, Net Fixed Assets • Corrugator Parameters – 5 • Board Consumption & Inventory • Production Basis Weight

Key Performance Indicators (KPI) Scope of Performance Indicators

• Your company average Vs.: • Average of other data in category for each line item • Averages of 10%* highest and 10%* lowest for each line item • Averages of each line item for plants in top 10*% of operating profit

and bottom 10*% of operating profit

• 61 Line Items • 10 Financial ratios • 42 other indicators

• Results aggregated* into 26 categories by: • Independent/Integrated • Size (MMSF/YR) • Geographic Areas • Corrugators, Sheet Feeders/ Sheet Plants

* Percentiles and group aggregations are adjusted if necessary to maintain company confidentiality.

Key Performance Indicators (KPI) What Your Report Contains

• Participating independent companies provide data for their sheet plants • 44 inputs; most reported as percentage of gross sales

- Corrugated and non-corrugated sales and cost of materials purchased - 29 categories of operating expense - 9 other items – employment, production, inventory, waste

• Individual company and plant data held confidentially by FBA, de-identified in report and destroyed after use

• Report shows: • results by range of sales • summary of averages by sales range • Random ordered plant annual 5-year sales history.

• Only participating plants receive reports

Independent Sheet Plant Operating Ratio Survey (SPORS)

• U.S. Corrugated Forecast 2011-2015 • Prepared by PRISM (Packaging Research Intelligence Strategies

and Marketing) • Contains Shipment Trends and Forecasts by FBA areas

- 6 years of past shipment trends - 2011 and 2015 shipment forecasts

Corrugated Forecasts U.S.

• Global Corrugated Forecasts 2011-2015, A Report for ICCA • Prepared by PRISM, 121-page Main Volume and 98-page Statistical

Appendix • Analysis of 51 countries and sub-regions aggregated into 6

geographic regions and world total • Analysis of Economic and Market Prospects

- Processed Foods, Drinks, Fresh Foods, nonfood consumables - Appliances, Machinery, Durable Goods & Clothing, Other

Corrugated Forecasts Global

• Forecast Structure • Historical data past six years • Forecast current year and 4 additional years to 2015 • Country, sub-region and regional framework

• Trend and Forecast Contents • Industrial Production Trend & Forecast • Comparison between Industrial Production and corrugated production • Corrugated Production Trend & Forecast (MSM, BSF, and Tonnes) • Per-capita corrugated consumption • Basis weight Trend & Forecast

Corrugated Forecasts Global Forecast Parameters

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

North America

Europe Pacif ic Rim

China Rest of Asia

C & S America

Other Regions

2005 2010 2015

Global Corrugated Production Trends and Forecasts by Area

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

North America

Europe Pacif ic Rim

China Rest of Asia

C & S America

Other Regions

2005 2010

Global Corrugated Per Capita Corrugated Consumption Trends and Forecasts by Area

Global Corrugated Incremental Business Generation by Region, 2010-2015, Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

North America

Europe Japan Oceania Pacif ic Rim (ex Japan)

China Rest of Asia

Central & South America

Other Regions

Global Corrugated Forecasted Incremental Consumption, 2010-2015, MSM

527

528

632

759

882

929

984

993

1028

1180

1286

1526

3188

3503

36082

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Russia

France

Mexico

Thailand

Poland

Turkey

Brazil

Mid East & Central Asia

Germany

South Korea

Vietnam

Indonesia

USA

India

China

Incremental Growth in Corrugated Consumption: 2010-2015(Million Square Meters)

Global Corrugated Forecasted Production Growth by Region, 2010-2015, Percent Per Year

1.3 1.61.1

9.9

6.9

3 2.7

4.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

North America

Europe Pacific Rim China Rest of Asia

C & S America

Other Regions

World

Corrugated Production Growth by Weight(% per year - 2010-2015)

• Industry Annual Report • North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)*

• Biennial Productivity & Waste Survey (PWS) • Occupational Injuries and Illnesses Annual Report (OII)* • Monthly Labor Report & Online Database* • Annual Wage and Fringe Benefits Study* • Quarterly International Corrugated Case Association

(ICCA) Statistics

* Report is only available to report participants

Other Fibre Box Association Reports