FIA Data and the EPA Accounting Framework for Biogenic CO 2 EMISSIONS

PowerPoint Presentation

Steve Prisley2012 National FIA User Group Meeting

FIA Data and the EPA Accounting Framework for Biogenic CO2 EMISSIONSOVERVIEWBackground: EPA regulating CO2 emissions; different treatment for biogenic CO2?Proposed accounting framework and role of FIA dataIssues and challenges

Photo: 24dash.com2Bioenergy and Carbon NeutralityBiomass: forests, agricultural products, wastes & residuesIPCC approach for national GHG inventories: treats emissions from biomass energy as carbon-neutralPremises for carbon neutrality of biomass emissions:They contain carbon that was taken from the atmosphere They will be recaptured by subsequent regrowth of plantsThey would have occurred anywayThey are part of a short-term cycle relative to fossil fuel emissionsEuropean stance: biomass energy is carbon neutral (for now)3Recent EPA actions on biogenic CO2 emissionsEPA, under Clean Air Act, establishes thresholds for stationary sources emitting CO2 under PSD permittingAugust 2010 - NAFO files petition for reconsideration of Tailoring Rule regarding treatment of biomass emissionsJanuary 2011 Agency grants NAFO petition for reconsideration of Tailoring Rule, and announces plans to defer applicability of PSD to bioenergy and other biogenic sources (PSD Deferral Rule)

44Recent EPA actions on biogenic CO2 emissionsMarch 2011 Deferral Rule and Guidance are published; includes plans for a detailed examination of the science related to accounting for biogenic CO2 emissionsMay-Sept. 2011 Technical team development of draft frameworkOct-Dec.2011 Review by EPA Science Advisory Board (SAB)March/April 2012- SAB Report expectedNext: revisions to framework?

55An accounting framework to adjust biogenic CO2 emissions from stationary sources A unique framework is needed that:Accounts for a stationary sources onsite CO2 emissions, taking the biological cycling of carbon into consideration, in a scientifically and technically rigorous mannerProvides the critical link between direct emissions from source and dynamics occurring in terrestrial biosphereCreates an adjustment factor that can be applied to direct emissions

6Also note that EEA-SC has recently criticized categorical exclusion per EU policies. And that other groups have pointed out the importance of developing a new accounting approach (Pena et al. 2011).6Technical TeamOversight: Jen Jenkins, Sara Ohrel; EPAFacilitation/Coordination: Mark Flugge, Diana Pape; ICF InternationalTechnical Team:Thomas Buchholz, Spatial Informatics GroupCharles Canham, Cary Institute of Ecosystem StudiesKatie Hanks, RTI InternationalGregg Marland, Appalachian State UniversityBruce McCarl, Texas A&M UniversityStephen Ogle, Colorado State UniversitySteve Prisley, Virginia TechNeil Sampson, The Sampson Group7Framework goalsAccurately reflects the carbon outcome. Is scientifically rigorous/defensible.Is simple and easy to understand.Is simple and easy to implement.Is easily updated with new data.Uses existing data sources.8Defining the scope

9POTENTIAL ApproachesUse U.S. GHG Inventory as a proxy for national scale assessment of carbon stocks on land:Biogenic CO2 emissions at stationary sources do not contribute to atmospheric load as long as the LULUCF sector in the U.S. is a net sinkCategorical exclusion:Based on assumption that because biogenic feedstocks grow, biogenic CO2 never contributes to atmospheric loadNo assessment of carbon stocks or link to the landCategorical inclusion:Biogenic CO2 = fossil CO2 emissions at the stationary sourceNo assessment of carbon stocks or link to the landLifecycle emissions analysis:Comprehensive way to assess net GHG emissions from use of biogenic fuel versus fossil fuels10SELECTED Approach: FEEDSTOCK-BASEDFeedstocks differ in their likely impact on atmospheric CO2:Feedstocks with similar properties or uses can be grouped togetherManagement/harvest characteristics might distinguish feedstocksAlternative fates (i.e., anyway emissions): waste/residues, salvage

11SELECTED Approach: FEEDSTOCK-BASEDThree broad categories of biologically-based materials that might be used in a stationary source: Forest-Derived Woody BiomassAgricultural BiomassWaste Materials

Photo: Emily Jane Davis, from Biomass magazine

Photo: CleanTechnica.com

Photo: Biomass magazine12PREMIse of the FrameworkEmissions from a stationary source can be considered carbon-neutral to the extent that:They are subsequently captured by vegetation regrowth, orThey would likely have occurred anywayFramework will calculate a Biomass Accounting Factor (BAF) to represent the extent to which these criteria are met.13Stationary SourceSequestrationAtmosphereFEEDSTOCK NEEDEDSEQUESTERED FRACTIONCARBON CONTAINED IN PRODUCTS AND BYPRODUCTSDIRECT EMISSIONSEMISSIONS FROM LAND-USE & MANAGEMENTCHANGESEMISSIONS FROM LEAKAGEFEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY SOURCEFEEDSTOCK LOSSESDURING TRANSPORT & STORAGEFEEDSTOCK GROWTHAccounting framework schematic1414Stationary SourceSequestrationAtmospherePGE L (1PRODC)PGE SEQPPGE PRODCPGE (1SEQPPRODC)PGE L PRODCSITE - TNC (1PRODC)LEAK (1PRODC)PGE (1+L)PGEPGE (1+L) LAR PRODC+PGE (1+L) LAR (1PRODC)Accounting framework schematic1515NBE = PGE (1 + L) (1 LAR) (1 PRODC) PGE SEQP + SITE_TNC (1 PRODC)+ LEAK (1 PRODC)BAF = NBE / PGE

NBE: Net Biogenic EmissionsPRODC: Product Carbon (%)PGE: Potential Gross EmissionsSEQP: Sequestered ProportionLAR: Level of Atmospheric ReductionSITE_TNC: Total Net Change at SiteL: Losses in transport/storageFramework equationWhere does FIA fit in?16Stationary SourceSequestrationAtmosphereFEEDSTOCK NEEDEDSEQUESTERED FRACTIONCARBON CONTAINED IN PRODUCTS AND BYPRODUCTSDIRECT EMISSIONSEMISSIONS FROM LAND-USE & MANAGEMENTCHANGESEMISSIONS FROM LEAKAGEFEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY SOURCEFEEDSTOCK LOSSESDURING TRANSPORT & STORAGEFEEDSTOCK GROWTHAccounting framework schematic1717Stationary SourceSequestrationAtmosphereFEEDSTOCK NEEDEDSEQUESTERED FRACTIONCARBON CONTAINED IN PRODUCTS AND BYPRODUCTSDIRECT EMISSIONSEMISSIONS FROM LAND-USE & MANAGEMENTCHANGESFEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY SOURCEFEEDSTOCK LOSSESDURING TRANSPORT & STORAGEFEEDSTOCK GROWTHAccounting framework schematic1818Stationary SourceSequestrationAtmosphereFEEDSTOCK NEEDEDSEQUESTERED FRACTIONCARBON CONTAINED IN PRODUCTS AND BYPRODUCTSDIRECT EMISSIONSFEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY SOURCEFEEDSTOCK LOSSESDURING TRANSPORT & STORAGEFEEDSTOCK GROWTHAccounting framework schematic1919Stationary SourceSequestrationAtmosphereFEEDSTOCK NEEDEDSEQUESTERED FRACTIONCARBON CONTAINED IN PRODUCTS AND BYPRODUCTSDIRECT EMISSIONSFEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY SOURCEFEEDSTOCK GROWTHAccounting framework schematic2020Stationary SourceAtmosphereFEEDSTOCK NEEDEDCARBON CONTAINED IN PRODUCTS AND BYPRODUCTSDIRECT EMISSIONSFEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY SOURCEFEEDSTOCK GROWTHAccounting framework schematic2121Stationary SourceAtmosphereFEEDSTOCK NEEDEDDIRECT EMISSIONSFEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY SOURCEFEEDSTOCK GROWTHAccounting framework schematicDoes regrowth balance adjusted emissions? 2222Role of FIA DataDoes regrowth balance emissions?Use FIA data to estimate net growth surplus over removalsCompute LAR:LAR = (GROW + AVOIDEMIT) PGE * (1 + L)(Actually, LAR is capped at 1.0)GROW: tons CO2 sequestered in regrowthAVOIDEMIT: CO2 emissions that would have occurred anyway without energy production2323Role of FIA DataRecent growth exceeds removals (by more than PGE): LAR = 1Recent growth is below removals: LAR = 0Recent growth is positive but less than emissions: 0 < LAR < 124CASE STUDY EXAMPLE30 MW electricity generation plantConsumes 1 bone dry ton wood per megawatt producedConsumes 250,000 tons wood per yearEqual to 415,800 tCO2e (PGE)Transport/storage losses negligible (L = 0)

25CASE STUDY EXAMPLECase 1: Source region = New EnglandAnnual sequestration in region: 60,484,044 tCO2eLAR = 1 (60,484,044 >> 415,800)BAF = 0Case 2: Source region = New HampshireAnnual sequestration in region: 104,252 tCO2eLAR = (104,252 / 415,800) = 0.2507BAF = 0.7493

26ISsuesTechnical implementation issues:What is recent? Time scale for G/R?Where? Spatial scale?Compared to what? Baselines?Policy implementation issues:Time scaleLeakageOpt-out? Certification?Import/export considerationsMarginal versus average accounting

27Technical Issues: what is recent?Setting a time period for sequestration assessment is a policy decisionBalance between time and space influences precisionApprox. 5 years would (hopefully) represent a complete FIA measurement cycle in Eastern USExamine G/R within past survey period to compute regional GROW factorsUpdate as new data become available28Technical issues: Spatial scale?Balance between time and space influences precisionWorking forest: consider ownership and availabilityNational? Not responsive to local/regional imbalancesRegional?Can have regional default factors- ease of useArbitrary regions; woodsheds overlapLocal?Need sufficient area for precision of estimatesDefault factors not feasible29Baselines have been defined in at least three ways: The net change from a current reference pointReference point baselineThe net change from a bounded business-as-usual futureAnticipated future baselineThe net change from an alternative futureComparative baselineIncludes consideration of alternative energy futures

Technical Issues: baselines?30The choice of baseline can make a significant difference in results and will likely depend on the specific context(s) in which the accounting framework is applied

30Policy issues: time scale?Should CO2 balances be projected into the future?Products leaving a stationary source are not counted: should future emissions from them be estimated?

31Policy issues: Leakage?Leakage occurs when purchase of biomass for energy causes market reactions that may result in emissions elsewhereE.g., purchase of corn for ethanol production causes ripple effect among agricultural substitutes that results in unreported emissionsIndirect land-use change is often a resultHow to quantify?How to verify?How to attribute responsibility?

32Policy issues: Opt-out?Should stationary sources be given the opportunity to opt-out of this framework?E.g., if they can document sustainability of supply and regrowthWhat are the reporting, verification burdens?Is third-party certification enough?Sources for such plants would need to be withdrawn from analyses for other plants how?

33Photo: James LowePolicy ISSUES: Import/Export

Pellet export facility, Eastport, MEExports impact G/R balanceIf no emissions, not in systemDisincentive for domestic renewable energy?34Photo: James LowePolicy ISSUES: Marginal/averageWhen new plants are permitted, G/R balance changes: whats fair?

Existing plants grandfathered?BAF changes for everyone?Subsequent plants have BAF = 0?3535Summary

Accounting framework is a work in progressInevitably, FIA data will be relied upon to provide estimates of growth/removals related to biomass energyIssues of FIA spatial scale, time scale, and working forest need resolutionTechnical and policy issues remain36