FI Marketing - SGFI, Dan Shapiro

8/9/2019 FI Marketing - SGFI, Dan Shapiro

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OverviewOverview

Conventional vs. Viral

How to do conventional

How to do viral How to do PR



ConConventventionaiona

llmarmarketiketi

ngng

Pros

Cons

Predictablecosts &results

Lots of talent Boss sees name

on TV

Hard tomeasureresults

Growing lesseffective

Costs$250mm /

product



ViraVira

llmarmarketiketi

ngng

Pros

Cons

Basically free

Highlymeasurable

Ridiculouslyeffective

Usually fails

Failure is silent

Effectiveness

cannot bescaled withdollars



FREE Viral or word of mouth

marketing

ARPU of $1 or less

Facebook

Google

Kayak

PAID Traditional marketing

ARPU of $20 or more

Classmates Amazon

Expedia

There are really just two kinds of There are really just two kinds of

businesses on the internetbusinesses on the internet



The secret of viralThe secret of viralmarketing is just one thingmarketing is just one thing



The secret of viralThe secret of viralmarketing is just one thingmarketing is just one thing(And nobody knows what thehell it is)



SO ISO I THO THOUGHUGH T I’D T I’DASK ASK THE THEPROPRO

S.S.

Epidemiologists, that is. They get paid to think about this stuff so we don’t alldie.



Their secret: Their secret: The basic reproduction number The basic reproduction number

RR00



Modeling viralityModeling virality

R 0 Number of people each customer infects/year

T Number of years

C Number of customers today

C’ Number of customers after T years

’=Ce (TR 0 )



Why Mobile Isn’t ViralWhy Mobile Isn’t Viral



Basic reproduction rate of Basic reproduction rate of

common viral phenomenacommon viral phenomenaVector R 0

Measles Airborne 101

Polio Fecal-oral route 63

HIV/AIDS Sexual contact 44

SARS Airborne droplet 45

Swine flu (2009 strain) Social contact 1.56

. . / / / / .ent psu edu onb1 publ frais2006 graisetal2006 pdf, , / - / . = ; = ; = ; = .ntela Inc 4 20 4 27 n 338 for Facebook n 322 for Gmail n 248 for myspace n 149 for Twitter

. . / / / / / / .cdc gov agent smallpox training overview pdf eradicationhistory pdf

, ( ). " : ".May RM 1979 Population biology of infectious diseases Part I Nature 28 0 ( ): – 5721 361 7 ( ). " ". . . .Teunis P 2004 Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures Am J Epidemiol, ( ). “ ( ): ”. . . . . , - nelly et al 2009 Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A H1N1 Early Findings Science Vol 324 no 5934 1557 1561



Basic reproduction rate of Basic reproduction rate of

common viral phenomenacommon viral phenomena

. . / / / / .ent psu edu onb1 publ frais2006 graisetal2006 pdf, , / - / . = ; = ; = ; = .ntela Inc 4 20 4 27 n 338 for Facebook n 322 for Gmail n 248 for myspace n 149 for Twitter

. . / / / / / / .cdc gov agent smallpox training overview pdf eradicationhistory pdf

, ( ). " : ".May RM 1979 Population biology of infectious diseases Part I Nature 28 0 ( ): – 5721 361 7 ( ). " ". . . .Teunis P 2004 Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures Am J Epidemiol, ( ). “ ( ): ”. . . . . , - nelly et al 2009 Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A H1N1 Early Findings Science Vol 324 no 5934 1557 1561

Vector R 0

Measles Airborne 101

Facebook Invitation 62

Polio Fecal-oral route 63

Gmail Email footer, invitation 52

HIV/AIDS Sexual contact 44

MySpace Invitation 42

SARS Airborne droplet 45

Twitter Social contact 1.52

Swine flu (2009 strain) Social contact 1.56





There is one problemThere is one problem



Corn Sm utCorn Sm ut



Facebook = swine flu !=Facebook = swine flu !=

mobile appsmobile apps 65% don’t have a dataplan65% don’t have a dataplan

75% are on a different carrier 75% are on a different carrier

70% don’t have smartphones70% don’t have smartphones

98% don’t have iPhones*98% don’t have iPhones*

*(outside of California)



Facebook = swine flu !=Facebook = swine flu !=

mobile appsmobile apps 65% don’t have a dataplan65% don’t have a dataplan

75% are on a different carrier 75% are on a different carrier

70% don’t have smartphones70% don’t have smartphones

98% don’t have iPhones98% don’t have iPhones

etcetc

etcetc



3 Rules of Viral3 Rules of Viral

Market must be homogenous

Product must be compelling

Must iterate until you find a greatgimmick



ConventionalConventional

Just like viral, there’s only one numberthat really matters

(but this one doesn’t require exponents or the base of natural logarithms)



Profit MarginProfit Margin

C Cost to acquire a customer

R Lifetime revenue per customer

P Profit margin (as a percentage)

= -CR



So you have to do twoSo you have to do two

thingsthings

1.Get customers cheaply

› Radio

› TV

› Adwords

› Sponsorships

› Contests

› All the usual stuff marketers do

2.Make a ton of money from each one



PRPR

Kind of the “third way”

Compliments the other things you’re

doing Really easy to do badly



PR basicsPR basics

Figure out the stories you want told

›

›

›

›

Figure out who you want to tell them

›

›

›

Start networking

›



PR basicsPR basics

Figure out the stories you want told› It’s really easy to use the product

› Camera phones are taking off

›

Major carriers are deploying it› Ontela’s a great place to work

Figure out who you want to tell them› Lifestyle (not technology) writers

› Wireless press

› Local startup press

›



Do reporters’ jobs for themDo reporters’ jobs for them

Befriend a reporter or journalism major

Be controversial

Tell a story Use quotable language

Design what you say to translate

directly to the article



ExamplesExamples

Wrong:Camera phone usage climbed 20%

while film camera usage dropped15%.

Right:Camera Phone Kills Film Cameras



Handy trickHandy trick

Turn your internal market research in tonews

› Release usage patterns by platform andimply that the trends are universal

› Survey people on something you careabout and report the results

›

Just don’t make it obviously self serving!



SummarySummary

Know thyself: viral or conventional

If viral, expect iteration to take years

If conventional, expect big success totake millions

Help reporters and they’ll help you



Thanks! Thanks!

Dan ShapiroCEO, Ontela Inc.

Twitter: @danshapiroWeb: www.danshapiro.com/blogEmail

FI Marketing - SGFI, Dan Shapiro

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