ϕΠζɾϚϧνϨϕϧϞσϧΛ༻؍ਓʹޱΔجతڀݚ* Analysis on Tourism Demand via Bayesian Multilevel-model* ݹ୩೭**ɾେͻͱΈ*** By Tomoyuki FURUTANI**ɾHitomi Ota*** ɽΊʹ զࠃͷ؍ࡦͰɺʮΜͰΑɺ๚ΕΑʯ ͱɺఆਓޱͱਓޱΛରͱʹࡦஔΕΔɻͱΓΘఆਓޱͷݮগ༧ ΕΔҬͰɺ؍٬தظࡏͳͲͷਓޱͷՃΛతͱࡦɺ੫ऩͳͲҬࡁܦͳͲͷ ׆ԽʹܨΔͱظΕΔɻ ؍ࡦΛҊΔʹࡍɺɺࠃ֎ͷ؍ࢢʹΔ؍ਓޱ0%σʔλͳͲΛ༻ɺϚʔ έοτγΣΞʹجϙʔτϑΥϦΦɾϚτϦοΫε ੳతબϞσϧͷߏஙͳͲΛߦɺσεςΟωʔ γϣϯɾϚʔέςΟϯάΛల։Δɻɺ؍ਓޱ0%σʔλΛ༻ϚʔέοτγΣΞϞσϧత બϞσϧΛߏஙΔࡍɺબࢶଟͱɺϞσ ϧߏஙΛతʹσʔλऩΕͳΊ ɺ ݱݱ࠶گͷߴϞσϧਪఆͰͳͱଟɻ ɺਓͷҠಈʹΔੳʹɺϚϧνϨϕϧϞσ ϧΛ༻ɺݸਓҬɺͷҟΛతʹ ߟੳख๏ద༻ΕΔ ɻ·ɺ࠷ਪఆ ๏ʹΑΓղಘΒΕͳΑͳ߹ʹɺϕΠζਪఆʹΑ ΓϚϧνϨϕϧϞσϧͷະύϥϝʔλΛਪఆΔ๏ ༻ΒΕΔ ɻ؍ࢢੳʹΔϚʔέ οτγΣΞϞσϧతબϞσϧͷਪఆʹࡍɺϕ ΠζɾϚϧνϨϕϧϞσϧΛద༻ΔͱͰɺ ݱ࠶گݱͷߴϞσϧΛߏஙΔՄΔͱߟΒΕΔɺ དྷͷΑͳڀݚߦΘΕͳɻ ͰຊڀݚͰɺ؍धཁੳʹΔϚʔέοτ γΣΞϞσϧతબϞσϧͷߏஙΛલఏʹɺ ϕΠζɾϚϧνϨϕϧϞσϧʹΑΔϩδοτϞσϧΛఏ Ҋɺͷ༗ΛͱΛతͱΔɻ ୈೋষͰڀݚͷͱ๏Λड़ɺୈষͰϞσ ϧͷద༻ՌΛɻڀݚʹޙ࠷ͷ՝ͱޙࠓͷలʹ ·ͱΊΔɻ Ωʔϫʔζɿ؍ɺϕΠζ౷ܭɺϚϧνϨϕϧϞσϧ ਖ਼һɺതʢʣɺܚጯक़େ૯߹ࡦ෦ ʢਆಸ౻ݝࢢԕ౻ɺ 5&-ɺ&NBJMNBVO[!TGDLFJPBDKQʣ ຊϚΫυφϧυ)%גձ ɽڀݚͷͱ๏ ʢʣڀݚͷ ຊڀݚͰɺಓݝͷ؍0%σʔλΛ༻Ϛʔ έοτγΣΞੳతબϞσϧΛલఏͱɺ ϚϧνϨϕϧϞσϧʹجܕܭϩδοτϞσϧΛ ߏஙΔɻͱΓΘɺ0%ϖΞຖͷҟΛߟɺϞσ ϧύϥϝʔλΛਪఆΔɻ0%ϖΞຖʹϞσϧύϥϝʔλ ΛਪఆΔ߹ɺ࠷ਪఆ๏ͰղಘΒΕͳͱߟΒΕΔΊɺ֊ϕΠζ๏ʹΑΔγϛϡϨʔγϣϯʢϚ ϧίϑ࿈ϞϯςΧϧϩ๏ɿ.$.$ʣΛద༻Δɻ ؍धཁͷੳʹɺୈճશװࠃઢ٬७ಈௐ ʢʣ ɺ؍ͷҬଐͱʮҬϒϥϯυ ઓαʔϕΠʯ ࡌهʹΕΔҬϒϥϯυ ͳͲͷࢦඪΛ༻Δɻ ʢʣੳͷ๏ BʣϞσϧͷཁ i ʹରண j ΛબΔ߹ͷϚʔέοτγ ΣΞ p ij ΛઆΔʢతબʣϞσϧΛҎԼͷΑ ʹఆԽΔ ɻ i ʹରண j ΛબΔ߹ ͷ༻ U ij ΛɺͷΑʹΒΘɻ U ij = X ij β ij + ε ij , = V ij + ε ij , ε ij ~ i.i.d. N 0,σ ij 2 ( ) Ҭ n ɺઆม k ݸͷͱɺ β ij ij ͷ Έ߹ΘʹରΔະύϥϝʔλϕΫτϧɺ X ij આ มߦɺ ε ij ޡΛҙຯΔɻ༻ͷఆ V ij Λ༻ɺ i ʹରΔண j ͷϚʔέοτγ ΣΞ p ij ɺͷΑʹΒΘΕΔɻ
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Transcript
ベイズ・マルチレベルモデルを用いた観光交流人口に関する基礎的研究*
Analysis on Tourism Demand via Bayesian Multilevel-model*
古谷知之**・大田ひとみ*** By Tomoyuki FURUTANI**・Hitomi Ota***