Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend David E. Bloom David Canning Günther Fink Jocelyn E. Finlay Program on the Global Demography of Aging Harvard School of Public Health Second Annual Research Conference on Population, Reproductive Health, and Economic Development, December 8-9 2007 This research was made possible by Grant Number 5 P30 AG024409 from the National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health and by a grant from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.
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Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the ... Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend 2 Main Questions in this Paper 1. How do fertility changes during
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Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend
David E. BloomDavid CanningGünther Fink
Jocelyn E. Finlay
Program on the Global Demography of AgingHarvard School of Public Health
Second Annual Research Conference on Population, Reproductive Health, and Economic Development, December 8-9 2007
This research was made possible by Grant Number 5 P30 AG024409 from the National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health and by a grant from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.
Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend 2
Main Questions in this Paper1. How do fertility changes during the demographic transition affect
female labor force participation?2. What are the long run implications for the size of the demographic
dividend?
IdentificationWe identify the effect of fertility using abortion laws as instrument
ResultFertility declines lead to a significant increase in female labor force participation augmenting the demographic dividend
Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend 3
Outline
• Introduction and Literature• Data• Empirical Results• Simulations• Conclusion
Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend 4
Introduction and Literature Continued
Female Participation Response to Fertility – US state-level studies show that a fall in fertility leads to an increase in
the extent of female labor force participation: Bailey (2006), Cain and Dooley (1976).
Identification Approaches– Accessibility of the contraceptive pill: Bailey, 2006– State level legalization of abortion:
Fertility effect: Levine et al. (1999); Klerman (1999)Education and Participation: Angrist and Evans (1996)
Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend 5
Identification
FertilityFemale Labor Force Participation
Abortion Legislation
Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend 6
Data
Female Labor Market Participation (ILO 2007)– By cohort (15-19, 20-25,…,60-64)– 1950-2000– 97 countries
Fertility (WDI 2006)– Total fertility rate
Abortion Index (United Nations Population Division 2002)– Combined score of legal abortion on grounds of physical and
mental health of the mother, life-threatening pregnancies, rape, fetal impairment, economic hardship, on request
– Items highly correlated; index very similar to principal component
Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend 7