1 Pacific Ocean ROMS-CoSiNE Modeling (12-km) Incorporating optics into ROMS-CoSiNE-EcoLight Future predications for CCS based on GFDL/ESM-ROMS-CoSiNE Future changes of nutrient dynamics and biological productivity in California Current System Fei Chai, Peng Xiu, Enrique Curchitser
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Pacific Ocean ROMS-CoSiNE Modeling (12-km) Incorporating optics into ROMS-CoSiNE-EcoLight Future predications for CCS based on
GFDL/ESM-ROMS-CoSiNE
Future changes of nutrient dynamics and biological productivity in California Current System
Fei Chai, Peng Xiu, Enrique Curchitser
Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) 1/8 deg. (~12km)
(Chai et al., 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009; Fujii and Chai, 2007; Liu and Chai, 2009; Xiu and Chai, 2011, Palacz et al., 2011, Xu et al., 2013, Xiu and Chai, 2013, 2014)
Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem Model (CoSiNE-13)
Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) 1/8 deg. (~12km)
(Chai et al., 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009; Fujii and Chai, 2007; Liu and Chai, 2009; Xiu and Chai, 2011, Palacz et al., 2011, Xu et al., 2013, Xiu and Chai, 2013, 2014)
Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem Model (CoSiNE-13)
Changes of Vertical Velocity (W) and NO3 and SiO4 in region 2 and 3, during April-‐July
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Annual Mean NO3 Flux (0-‐200m) (kmol/s)
2.95
2.33 1.472.00
1.360.92
1990-‐2009
-‐0.01 0.30
Upwelling
0.250.26
Mixing
Net NO3 to Region 2 & 3:
Difference = 1 (4.14 -‐ 3.13)
Rykaczewski and Dunne GRL, 2010
2030-‐2049
Annual Mean NO3 Flux (0-‐200m) (kmol/s)
2.95
2.33 1.472.00
1.360.92
1990-‐2009
-‐0.01 0.30
Upwelling
0.250.26
Mixing
Net NO3 to Region 2 & 3:
Difference = 1 (4.14 -‐ 3.13)
Rykaczewski and Dunne GRL, 2010
2030-‐2049
Annual Mean NO3 Flux (0-‐200m) (kmol/s)
2.95
2.33 1.472.00
1.360.92
1990-‐2009
-‐0.01 0.30
Upwelling
0.250.26
Mixing
Net NO3 to Region 2 & 3:
Difference = 1 (4.14 -‐ 3.13)
Rykaczewski and Dunne GRL, 2010
2030-‐2049
Increasing EKE in the central offshore potentially enhancing upper water nutrients
Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) Difference = (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)
Increasing EKE in the central offshore potentially enhancing upper water nutrients
Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) Difference = (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)
Increasing EKE in the central offshore potentially enhancing upper water nutrients
Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) Difference = (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)
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Summary for future predications of CCS
• One-‐way downscaling higher resolution coastal model yield more information for regional difference
• In the central and southern coast, increase wind and wind stress curl lead to stronger upwelling; upwelled nutrients also increased due to warming and stratification in the open ocean which transport to the CCS
• Primary production increase due to more nutrients to CCS, diatoms and meso-‐zooplankton increase more near shore
• Increased eddy activity offshore along with decreased wind stress curl enhance nutrient supply to the upper ocean
• For the northern CCS, changing in wind stress curl lead to more downwelling, which leads to decrease of nutrient