Federal R&D Budget: Context and Current State of Play Matt Hourihan September 27, 2014 for the National Association of Graduate-Professional Students AAAS.

Federal R&D Budget: Context and Current State of Play

Matt HourihanSeptember 27, 2014for the National Association of Graduate-Professional Students

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program

Why Does the Federal R&D Budget Matter?

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National R&D by FunderExpenditures in billions, FY 2014 dollars

Other

Industry

Federal

Source: Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. Constant-dollar conversions based on GDP deflators from Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2015. © 2014 AAAS

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National R&D by FunderShare of total expenditures

Other

Industry

Federal

Source: Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. Constant-dollar conversions based on GDP deflators from Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2015. © 2014 AAAS

Federal Industry Other$0

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Character of R&D By Funder, 2011Expenditures in billions of dollars

Development

AppliedResearch

Basic Research

Source: NSF, National Patterns of R&D Resources survey. © 2014 AAAS

Interaction Between Public and Industrial R&D

Industrial R&D projects often draw on public research findings, instruments, techniques

Many industry operatives place high value on info about public research

Fair evidence for public research as complement to/inducer of private R&D and innovation

Workforce, networks, spillovers

Some sources: Cohen, Nelson, Walsh, Management Science, Vol. 48, No. 1, Jan. 2002; Salter and Martin, Research Policy, Vol. 30, No. 3, March 2001; Toole, Research Policy, Vol. 41, No 1, Feb. 2012; Blume-Kohout, Journal of Policy Analysis and Mgmt, Vol 31, No. 3, Summer 2012

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University R&D Funding by Sourceexpenditures in billions, FY 2014 dollars

Other Sources

InstitutionalFunds

Industry

State and Local

Federal

Source: NSF, Higher Education R&D survey series. Includes Recovery Act funding. © 2014 AAAS

Recent (and Not-So-Recent) History

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Federal R&D in the Budget and the EconomyOutlays as share of total, 1962 - 2015

R&D as a Shareof the FederalBudget (LeftScale)

R&D as a Shareof GDP (RightScale)

Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2015. FY 2015 is the President's request. © 2014 AAAS

There is no actual R&D budget and only limited coordination of “the R&D budget”

We don’t know what funding levels are optimal

“Politics is who gets what, when, and how.” - Harold Lasswell

“Budgeting is about values, and it’s about choices.” – Rep. Rosa DeLauro

BCA takes effect: first year of caps

Sequestration kicks in (delayed and reduced by the American Taxpayer Relief Act)

Yearlong budget warfare resolved by Bipartisan Budget Act (restores some funding in FY14, sets table for FY15)

Current Year: Where Are We? Some discretionary funding restored

but this only keeps things flat

President’s budget released in March Flat funding overall Limited prioritization (low-carbon energy,

neuroscience, advanced manufacturing, high-speed rail, NASA industry partnerships, extramural ag research)

Extra funding proposed & ignored

House: 7 of 12 bills passed; Senate: none

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Dept. ofDefense S&T

Commerce,Justice,Science

Energy &Water

Agriculture Interior andEnvironment

Labor, HHS,Education*

FY 2015 R&D Appropriations by Select Spending BillEstimated funding as a percent of FY 2012, in constant dollars

2012 2013 2014 2015 Request 2015 House 2015 Senate

*Not yet introduced in House.FY 2012 = 100%. Source: AAAS analyses of agency budget documents and appropriations bills and reports. FY 2014 figures are current estimates. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2014 AAAS

Agency Notes DOE: differing takes on ITER, climate research,

renewables and efficiency v. fossil fuels

NASA: Appropriations way above request; varying numbers in many places (Earth, Planetary, Astro, Aero); exploration funding?

NSF: Social and geo targeted

NOAA climate research cut in House; boosts for NIST labs

Biodefense facility funding for DHS

Looking Ahead

Continuing resolution

Lame duck omnibus?

FY 2016 and beyond – back to “post-sequester” levels

What it all means: very tight fiscal room, broad-based growth unlikely But growth in targeted programs?

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Federal Nondefense R&D Under Various Scenariosbillions of constant 2014 dollars

Original BCA/ATRA Caps Actual Spending Recovery Act

Post-Sequestration Ryan/Murray Deal Changes President's Request

Source: AAAS R&D reports and analyses of agency and legislative documents. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY 2015 request. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © AAAS 2014

For more info…

[email protected]

202-326-6607http://

www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program