February 2007 - The Changing Demographic Landscape of Higher Education1 Student Demographic Projections, Public Policy Questions and the Impact on Higher.

February 2007 - The Changing Demographic Landscape of Higher Education

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Student Demographic Student Demographic Projections, Public Projections, Public

Policy Questions and the Policy Questions and the Impact on Higher Impact on Higher

EducationEducationKnowing who is (and is not) knocking at the Knowing who is (and is not) knocking at the college doorcollege door

Becky Brodigan College Board Regional ForumMiddlebury College February 2007


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“These findings can be very helpful in helping shape public policy. Many folks may not like the implications of these findings, but they are the facts, and we ignore them at our peril.”

David Longenecker, Executive Director, WICHE, The Chronicle of Higher Education 2/24/2006


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Things to think about today… What is the environment within which we

operate? What is happening in our state and region

(and surrounding regions)? Where do our students come from (at our

institutions) and our states? Where do students from our state go? Where do non-residents come from to our

schools? Will these changes impact career colleges,

community colleges, state colleges, public flagships and different varieties of privates differently?


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Minority School Enrollments

36% to 50%

21% to 35%

10% to 20%

More than 50%

Less than 10%

Source: U.S. Department of Education


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Number of Public High School Graduates Peaks and Valleys …

2,000,0002,100,0002,200,0002,300,0002,400,0002,500,0002,600,0002,700,0002,800,0002,900,0003,000,000

Source: WICHE/The College Board


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College 'bubble' is about to burst (Philadelphia Inquirer – 7/31/2006) Administrators at local private institutions

as diverse as Chestnut Hill College, Drexel University, St. Joseph's University, and two-year Harcum College in Bryn Mawr say they already are preparing for the coming shortage. In an effort to maintain the dramatic enrollment gains they've made, many are extending their recruiting efforts to faster-growing states, as well as adopting new academic programs to appeal to a wider pool of students.


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Projections of HS Graduates

in the United States

1%6%

14% 15%

65%

1%8%

13%

22%

56%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

NativeAmerican

Asian American Black Hispanic White

2007 2018


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White, Non-Hispanic Degree Attainment – percent of total

declining in all degrees

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Associates Bachelors Masters PhD

1981 1985 1990 1995 2003


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College Continuation Rates

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2004White Black Hispanic


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New England HS Graduates: 2008 to 2018

4,018

-309

3,977

777

-16,532-18,422

(20,000)

(17,000)

(14,000)

(11,000)

(8,000)

(5,000)

(2,000)

1,000

4,000

White AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic NativeAmerican

Overall


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Other Northeast* HS Graduates:

2007-08 to 2017-1817,519

-11,460

3,977

-53,120-46,667

-390

(60,000)

(40,000)

(20,000)

0

20,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic White Total

* Includes DC, DE, MD, NY, NJ, PA


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SAT Takers by Race/Ethnicity

1% 5% 5%

86%

4%1%10% 13%

4%

73%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

NativeAmerican

Asian American Hispanic White Other

New England US


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College Continuation Rates in the Northeast

68% 63% 63% 61% 59% 59%55%

43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

New

York

Massach

usett

s

New

Jerse

y

Conn

ectic

ut

Penn

sylva

nia

Maryla

nd

New

Ham

pshire

Verm

ont


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Enrollment at Colleges in Connecticut

CT64%

CA2% Inter

1%

TX0%

All other5%

NJ5%

NY11%

ME1%

NH1%RI1%

MA7%

PA1%

MD1%


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Enrollment at Colleges in New Hampshire

NH53%

All other10%

NJ2%

VT3%NY

4%Maine

4%

CT5%

MA18%

CA1%

TX0%


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Enrollment at Colleges in Massachusetts

MA62%

All other9%

CA2%

PA2%

NY6%

VT1%

ME2%RI

2%NH3%

CT5%

NJ3%

Inter3%


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Enrollment at Colleges in Rhode Island

RI32%

All Other9%

PA2%

MD1%

VT1%

ME1%

NH2%

CT10%

NY10%

MA22%

NJ8%

CA2%


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Enrollment at Colleges in Maine

ME69%

CA1%

All other6%

NY3%

VT2%

CT3%RI

1%NH4%

MA8% NJ

2%PA1%


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Enrollment at Colleges in Vermont

VT, 33.0%

TX, 0.3%

All other, 11.4%NY, 11.6%

NJ, 4.7%

NH, 6.7%

CT, 7.6%

ME, 4.4%

MA, 16.0%

PA, 2.7%

CA, 1.6%


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Emigration of College Students

18%

18%32%

37%42%42%

46%48%

57%

8%11%11%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

US

California

Arizona

Texas

NY

Massachusetts

MD

Rhode Island

Maine

NJ

Connecticut

New Hampshire

Vermont


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Percent of Freshmen from Out-of-State

20%8%8%

9%

25%25%

34%39%

40%51%

67%70%

25%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

US

Texas

California

NJ

Arizona

NY

MD

Maine

Connecticut

Massachusetts

New Hampshire

Rhode Island

Vermont


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Don’t mess with Texas! Where do their HS Graduates go to College?

Texas| 92.1%

Plains| 0.7%MidEast, 0.6%

Rocky| 0.6%Great Lakes| 0.6%

Farwest| 0.6%

NE| 0.4%

Rest of Southwest|

1.9%

Southeast| 2.6%Only 19

colleges or universites in NE with 10 or more first year students from

Texas.


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College continuation rates

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

MalesFemales


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College Continuation Rates

by Gender and Race59% 60%

66%64%

76%

66%

46%

74%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

White AfricanAmerican/ Black

Asian American Hispanic/ Latino

Men Women


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Fall 2005 Freshmen by Gender and Region

45% 47%44% 45%

53%56% 55%55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Eastern Midwestern Southern Western

Men Women


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Fall 2006 Freshmen by Gender by Income

18%

15%

12%

16%

19%

8%

12%12%

16%

7%

10%

17%14%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Less than40

40 to 60 60 to 75 75 to 100 100 to 150 150to 200 Over 200

Men Women

45% of men less than 75K53% of women


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NE Enrollment Patterns: Full-Time

45% 44% 45% 45% 46% 48% 45% 45%

55% 56% 55% 55% 54% 52% 55% 55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Conn

ectic

ut

Main

eMass

NH RI

Verm

ont

Total

Total

US

Men Women


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NE Enrollment Patterns: Part-Time

62%68%

62% 63% 63% 66% 63%59%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Conn

ectic

ut

Main

eMass

NH RI

Verm

ont

Total

Total

US

Men Women


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Percent of Total Undergraduate State AidNot Based on Need, 1982 to 2002


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Tomás Rivera Study18-24 year old California Latinos 98% said it was important to have a

college education 38% did not feel the benefits

outweighed the costs Not being able to work and incurring

debt were opportunity costs associated with attending college


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Tomás Rivera Study18-24 year old California Latinos Almost 25% thought loan availability

was contingent on grades 30% would use a commercial bank

as the source of their loan

“Perceptions of College Financial Aid Among California Latino Youth”


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Recent LA Times article

Most Latino students spurn college loans

Less likely to take out a loan than any other racial/ethnic group

Reasons: lack of knowledge, fear of debt and distrust of lenders – particularly federal government


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Implications

Explaining the benefits of higher education will continue to be a challenge, especially when recruiting students with no family history

Opportunity costs are an impediment to many families

Cost perceptions will continue to hamper colleges ability to recruit

Need to better explain financial aid eligibility


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Race by Type of Private College

16%

2%

12%

63%

10%4% 4%

73%

10%

3%

12%

64%

8% 10%7%

60%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

African American Asian American Hispanic White

Bachelors/ Associates Liberal Arts Masters Universities


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Race by Type of Public College

17%

3%

15%

58%

15%

3%

15%

60%

14%

6%11%

66%

9% 8% 8%

68%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

African American Asian American Hispanic White

Bachelors/ Associates Public LA Public Masters Research


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For Profit Colleges

Caucasian39%

African American

19%

Hispanic17%

Unknown16%

Asian American

4%

International 4%

Native American

1%


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College Entrance within One-Year of High School Graduation64%

55%52%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

White African American Hispanic MaximumDifference

1972 1980 2001

Source: Higher Education and the Color Line, Pg 37.


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Levels of Education for the High School Class of 1992

( by 2000)51%

38%

6%

19%

53%

16%20%

51%

20%17%

33% 35%

6%

35%41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

No College Some College BA

Native American Hispanic African American Caucasian Asian American


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Implications for the States – Changes in Personal per

Capita Income70%

37%

52% 49%

30%

-4% -5% -5% -3%-11%-20%

-10%0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Massachusetts Texas New York Colorado California

1980 to 2000 2000 to 2020


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Recent Sacramento Bee Headline…Latinos lag in reaching, finishing college

As a result, state per capita income could fall below national average


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Implications for the States – Personal per Capita Income

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Massachusetts Texas New York Colorado California

2000 2020


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Summary HS graduation projections

in NE and the Northeast going down over all

Increases in groups with lower college continuation rates

Increasing in states that do not export students


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Summary Other Questions?

Will affirmative actions changes/legal cases stifle enrollment by students of color in states like California and Texas?

What will happen to per capita income in those states and public higher education funding as a result?


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Summary Male/Female ratios not likely to

improve – females are poorer – financial aid implications

Colleges in NE going to have to work harder just to maintain market share – expand marketing efforts and develop new strategies – we enroll each others students


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Institutional Implications More competition for fewer students in the

North East More expense to attempt to recruit

students from outside the region Will college going rates increase for

different ethnic groups? Are we ready? Will the pressure to maintain/increase

market share lead to a growth in discounting and increase in state and institutional merit aid awards?


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Broad Institutional Considerations Does your staff (the faculty and administrators)

resemble in the composition of future student body?

Will your strategy be to target these new groups of students or will you attempt to adapt to changes as they occur?

What are the financial resources (including financial aid) necessary to meet the institution’s enrollment goals?

If students come in with weaker preparation, what will be your response?

What will be the impact on retention and graduation rates?


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Additional Implications

• Some institutions will see shrinking enrollments because of declines in the number of high school graduates in their states or regions.

• Some institutions may need to expand or alter their recruitment strategies and redefine the target populations they seek to attract and enroll.

• The racial and ethnic composition of students on campus may be markedly different from current classes.

February 2007 - The Changing Demographic Landscape of Higher Education1 Student Demographic Projections, Public Policy Questions and the Impact on Higher.

Documents

chronicle of higher

department of education

northeast slide

connecticut slide

raceethnicity slide

wichethe college board

college bubble

college continuation