February 14, 1999 (WINTER)

February 14, 1999 (WINTER) November 13, 1999

Defining local clusters: Getis’ G statistic

2/12*i1

*

*i jij j*

i1/WnSS

x w- x (d) w(d)G

ni

Can we detect the spectral signature of potholes? Do those values cluster on the landscape?

Blackburn et al. (2009 Bacillus ACT)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110 Epizootic (>100 deer)

Epizootic (42 deer)/Confirmation of necrophagous flies

Sporadic cases (<10 deer)

Sporadic cases (<5 deer)

Blackburn et al. (2007); Blackburn (2010)

Predicted distribution of Bacillus anthracis

Blackburn (2010)

1960 thru 1990

2050We can evaluate/speculate on climate change and the impacts of climate on epidemiology and geographic distributions. We can also think about evolutionary implications of climate changes on pathogen diversity. Speculating on the SNP results of Simonson et al. (2009), we are predicting a loss of Ames environments, not WNA.

Geographic distributions and climate change

WNA Lineage

Ames

A2 climate change scenario B2 climate change scenario

Difference in A2 and B2

Geographic distributions and climate change

A1a

A3b

We can evaluate/speculate on climate change and the impacts of climate on epidemiology and geographic distributions (Blackburn 2010, Joyner et al. 2010). We can also think about evolutionary implications of climate changes on pathogen diversity. Speculating on the MLVA-8 results of Aikimbayev et al. (2010), we are predicting a loss of A1a diversity and possible A3.

Joyner et al. (2010)