February 12, 2016 · growth” due to declines in equity prices, higher borrowing rates for riskier borrowers, and a further appreciation of the dollar. She agreed that those, as

February 12, 2016

Week in review

Canada – The Teranet–National Bank House Price

Index fell 0.1% in January, with declines in 7 of the 11 metropolitan regions covered. On a year-on-year basis, home prices were up 5.9% nationally in January, with above average increases in Vancouver (+12.5%), Hamilton (+10.3%), Toronto (+8.6%), and Victoria (+8.5%). There were below-average increases in Halifax (+2.0%), Montreal (+0.8%), Winnipeg (+0.2%) and Quebec City (+0.1%). Three metropolitan regions were in deflation mode on a year-on-year basis: Calgary (-2.6%), Edmonton (-1.9%), and Ottawa-Gatineau (-2.0%). Building permits jumped 11.3% in dollar terms in December. That was because of a 16.3% surge in the value of residential permits and a 2.5% increase for the non-residential sector. In real terms, residential permits rose 16.5% after the prior month’s 24% slump. The gains were due to a 25.6% surge for multis and a 1.3% increase for singles. For 2015 as a whole, Canadian housing permits totalled 207K, well above housing starts for the third year in a row, with the gap largely attributed to multiple family units.

United States – Retail sales rose a consensus-

topping 0.2% in January. Adding to the good news was the upward revision to the prior month to +0.2% (from -0.1%). January sales got a lift from motor vehicles/parts (+0.6%). Excluding autos, sales rose 0.1% after an upwardly revised +0.1% print the prior month. Ex-auto sales were supported by gains in most categories which more than offset declines for gasoline and sporting goods. If consensus is right about the 0.1% drop for CPI in the month, then real retail sales were up 0.3% in January, enough to put the US economy on track for a more than decent performance in Q1. The Job openings and Labor Turnover report showed that there were 5.6 million job openings in December, the highest in five months. The quits rate in the private sector, i.e. the number of people who quit their jobs as a percentage of total employment jumped to 2.4%, the highest in almost nine years.

The National Federation of independent business index (NFIB) fell to a two-year low of 93.9 in January. Businesses were a bit less upbeat about the sales outlook and hiring. Fed Chair Yellen gave an update on the economy in the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. The Chair acknowledged progress on the employment front but made clear “there is still room for further sustainable improvement”. But not all is rosy. The Chair said that “financial conditions in the United States have recently become less supportive of growth” due to declines in equity prices, higher borrowing rates for riskier borrowers, and a further appreciation of the dollar. She agreed that those, as well as foreign economic developments, pose risks to US growth. The Fed is still confident that inflation will move back up towards its 2% target

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Canada: More permits than housing starts for third consecutive year

Gap between permits and starts by year, by building type

Residential permits and starts, by year

Thousand units

Starts

Urban multis

A lot more permits than starts in the last three years… … largely because of multis

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada, CMHC)

Permits

Thousand units

Urban singles

Rural

2015 2015

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

U.S.: Wage inflation relatively low despite rising quits rateQuits rate versus Wage inflation in private sector

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Datastream)

%

Hourlywage (R)

Quits rate (L)

y/y % chg.

What we’ll be watching (p. 3) Calendar of upcoming releases (p. 5) Annex - Economic tables (A1)

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

2

“once oil and import prices stop falling, the downward pressure on domestic inflation from those sources should wane, and as the labor market strengthens further”. Chair Yellen again made clear monetary policy is not on a preset course and that the Fed continues to be data dependent. During the Q&A session with Congress, the Chair was asked if the Fed has authority to take interest rates into negative territory, to which she responded she wasn’t sure the Fed has legal authority for such a measure.

World – The eurozone’s GDP grew 1.1% annualized in

Q4 last year, or +0.3% unannualized. Of the fifteen countries that reported quarterly growth rates (out of 19 eurozone members), two printed negative growth ( Finland (-0.1%), Greece (-0.6%)), two had zero growth (Austria and Latvia) and 11 showed expanding output: Germany (+0.3%), France (+0.2%), Italy (+0.1%), Spain (+0.8%), Portugal (+0.2%), the Netherlands (+0.3%), Belgium (+0.3%), Estonia (+1.2%), Slovakia (+1.0%) Cyprus (+0.4%), and Lithuania (+0.5%), all in unannualized terms. Thanks to Q4 results, the Eurozone managed to grow 1.5% in 2015, the best performance in four years. However, the zone’s overall output remains below the 2008 peak.

The handoff to 2016 wasn’t good with the eurozone’s industrial production falling 1% in December due to sharp declines in Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201592

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Eurozone: Output almost back to 2008 peak

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Eurostat, Datastream)

Germany

Eurozone

Eurozoneex-Germany

Q4

Real GDP (Index=100 in 2008Q1)

Index%

Eurozone real GDP growth

Despite growing last year at the fastest

pace in four years … … eurozoneoutput remains

below 2008 peak


What we’ll be watching

3

In Canada, we’ll get some information this week about the handoff to 2016 thanks to crucial December data. Manufacturing shipments may have risen about 1.7% based on already-reported solid exports of

factory goods in the month. In contrast, retail sales likely fell in December after outsized gains the prior month. Reported softness in auto sales may have caused total retail sales to drop about 2.1%. Ex-auto sales may have fallen about 0.5% with gasoline station receipts declining in synch with pump prices. Wholesale sales may also have given back some of the prior month’s outsized gains. January data on the consumer price index will also be released this week. Continued softness in energy prices likely caused the index to fall again. But because of base effects, the year-on-year headline inflation rate probably moved up a tick to about 1.7%. Core inflation could show resilience as a much-depreciated Canadian dollar pushes up imported prices. A small monthly increase should leave the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 1.9%. British Columbia’s budget will be unveiled on Tuesday.

In the US, inflationary pressures will be assessed with the releases of the producer price index and consumer price index for the month of January. Declining energy prices probably drove down both indices. But

because of base effects, the year-on-year CPI likely moved up to 1.3%. We’re expecting the annual core CPI inflation rate to remain unchanged at 2.1%. Based on building permit applications for the prior months, housing starts probably bounced back to around 1190K in January. After falling for four months in a row, industrial production likely bounced back in January helped in part by the return of typical winter weather which likely boosted utilities output. We’ll also get information about February with the NAHB home builders’ index, and factory-related indices such as Empire and Philly indices. The Fed will release its meeting minutes on Wednesday.

Previous NBF forecastsRetail sales (December m/m chg.) 1.7% -2.1%ex-autos Retail sales (December m/m chg.) 1.1% -0.5%

Manufacturing sales (December m/m chg.) 1.0% 1.7%

CPI (January y/y chg.) 1.6% 1.7%Core CPI (January y/y chg.) 1.9% 1.9%

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan

14

Feb 1

4

Mar

14

Apr 1

4

May

14

Jun

14

Jul 1

4

Aug 1

4

Sep 1

4

Oct 1

4

Nov 1

4

Dec 1

4

Jan

15

Feb

15

Mar

15

Apr 1

5

May

15

Jun

15

Jul 1

5

Aug 1

5

Sep 1

5

Oct 1

5

Nov 1

5

Dec 1

5

Canada: A poor handoff to 2016 from consumers?Retail sales

m/m % chg.

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada)

NBF forecasts

ex-autos

Total

Previous NBF forecasts

CPI (January y/y chg.) 0.7% 1.3%Core CPI (January y/y chg.) 2.1% 2.1%

Industrial production (January m/m chg.) -0.4% 0.3%

Housing starts (January, saar) 1149K 1190K

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2013 2014 2015 2016

U.S.: Base effects took inflation higher in JanuaryConsumer price index

y/y % chg.

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Datastream)

NBF Jan forecasts

Excluding foodand energy

Total


What we’ll be watching

4

Elsewhere around the world, Japan will publish its Q4 GDP results as well as trade data for January. In China, January data on the CPI, PPI, credit, and trade will be released. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at the EU parliament on Monday.


Consensus Cons.

Estimate EPS

8:30 CA Manufacturing Sales MoM Dec 1.00% 0.80% 1.70% DHX Media Ltd 6:00 Q2 2016 0.08

8:30 US Empire Manufacturing Feb -19.4 -10.0 Russel Metals Inc Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.14

9:00 CA Existing Home Sales MoM Jan -0.60% -- Canadian Apartment Properties REIT Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.43

10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index Feb 60.0 60.0 RONA Inc 0:00 Q4 2015 0.18

16:00 US Total Net TIC Flows Dec -$3.2b -- Restaurant Brands International Inc 0:00 Q4 2015 0.30

Express Scripts Holding Co Aft-mkt Q4 2015 1.56

Public Storage 0:00 Q4 2015 2.42

Baxalta Inc Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.56

Hormel Foods Corp Bef-mkt Q1 2016 0.35

Zoetis Inc 0:00 Q4 2015 0.39

Cerner Corp Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.57

Vornado Realty Trust Aft-mkt Q4 2015 1.30

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Feb-12 9.30% -- Air Canada Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.41

8:30 US Housing Starts Jan 1149k 1170k 1190k Barrick Gold Corp Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.06

8:30 US Housing Starts MoM Jan -2.50% 1.80% 3.60% Constellation Software Inc/Canada Aft-mkt Q4 2015 4.71

8:30 US Building Permits Jan 1232k 1200k 1200k Kinaxis Inc Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.14

8:30 US Building Permits MoM Jan -3.90% -0.30% -0.30% Bombardier Inc 0:00 Q4 2015 0.02

8:30 US PPI Final Demand MoM Jan -0.20% -0.20% -0.20% Canfor Corp 0:00 Q4 2015 0.08

8:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Jan 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% IAMGOLD Corp 0:00 Q4 2015 -0.10

8:30 US PPI Final Demand YoY Jan -1.00% -0.60% -0.60% H&R Real Estate Investment Trust 0:00 Q4 2015 0.48

8:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Jan 0.30% 0.40% 0.40% Western Forest Products Inc 0:00 Q4 2015 0.04

8:30 CA Int'l Securities Transactions Dec 2.58b -- Dream Global Real Estate Investment Tru 0:00 Q4 2015 0.20

9:15 US Industrial Production MoM Jan -0.40% 0.30% 0.30% Priceline Group Inc/The 7:00 Q4 2015 11.82

9:15 US Capacity Utilization Jan 76.50% 76.70% 76.60% Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.98

8:30 CA Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Dec 1.80% -0.30% -0.50% Finning International Inc Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.37

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Feb-13 269k 275k TransAlta Corp Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.12

RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.43

OceanaGold Corp Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.04

Primero Mining Corp Bef-mkt Q4 2015 -0.02

Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd Aft-mkt Q4 2015 6.53

Yamana Gold Inc Aft-mkt Q4 2015 -0.02

Lundin Mining Corp Aft-mkt Q4 2015 -0.07

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.12

Capital Power Corp Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.32

Canadian Tire Corp Ltd 0:00 Q4 2015 2.58

Fortis Inc/Canada 0:00 Q4 2015 0.46

8:30 CA Retail Sales MoM Dec 1.70% -0.80% -2.10% Enbridge Inc Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.53

8:30 CA Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Dec 1.10% -0.60% -0.50% Enerplus Corp Bef-mkt Q4 2015 -0.09

8:30 CA CPI NSA MoM Jan -0.50% 0.10% -0.10% New Gold Inc 0:00 Q4 2015 0.01

8:30 CA CPI YoY Jan 1.60% 1.70% 1.70% Onex Corp 0:00 Q4 2015 0.00

8:30 US CPI MoM Jan -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% First Quantum Minerals Ltd 0:00 Q4 2015 0.05

8:30 CA CPI Core MoM Jan -0.40% 0.20% 0.20% Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc 0:00 Q4 2015 0.43

8:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Jan 0.10% 0.20% 0.20% VF Corp 6:55 Q4 2015 1.01

8:30 CA CPI Core YoY Jan 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% Deere & Co Bef-mkt Q1 2016 0.70

8:30 US CPI YoY Jan 0.70% 1.30% 1.30% Public Service Enterprise Group Inc 7:30 Q4 2015 0.50

8:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Jan 2.10% 2.10% 2.10% Ameren Corp 0:00 Q4 2015 0.15

Cabot Oil & Gas Corp 0:00 Q4 2015 -0.04

Pinnacle West Capital Corp Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.26Source: Bloomberg

5

Feb 19

Wednesday

Feb 17

Thursday

Feb 18

Friday

Economic releases & eventsPeriod PreviousTime

Feb 15

Monday

Tuesday

Feb 16

Earnings announcements

Economic calendar - Canada & U.S.

Country Release NBF Estimate

Company Time Qtr


Annex - Economic tables

February 12, 2016Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)

Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

UNITED STATESMONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions)

M1 * Jan 2016 3092 0.3 -0.2 1.6 5.5 4.4 5.2 5.2 9.3

M2 * Jan 2016 12418 1.0 0.3 0.7 6.1 5.6 6.1 6.1 6.1CREDIT MEASURES

Consumer Credit * Dec 2015 3547 0.6 0.4 0.4 6.5 7.4 6.9 6.8 6.7Mortgage (Banks) * Dec 2015 3865 0.6 0.8 0.5 6.9 5.8 6.3 4.4 1.5Business * Dec 2015 1977 1.0 1.2 1.1 11.4 10.1 11.4 11.6 10.5

CANADAMONETARY AGGREGATES

M2+ gross Nov 2015 1754 0.6 0.2 0.6 7.1 5.6 5.4 4.8 4.7Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) Dec 2015 854 0.7 0.7 0.3 7.1 5.1 5.2 4.0 4.1

CREDIT MEASURESConsumer Nov 2015 547 0.4 0.1 0.2 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.3Mortgages Nov 2015 1347 0.5 0.5 0.5 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.0Short - Term Business Loans Oct 2015 499 0.6 1.4 -0.1 9.4 10.3 11.5 11.2 8.7Business (S.T. + L.T.) * Dec 2015 1744 0.6 0.0 0.3 4.1 6.7 7.1 8.0 7.5Private (Consumer+Business) * Nov 2015 3628 0.2 0.3 0.5 5.3 6.2 6.0 6.4 5.7Gov. of Canada securities outstanding Jan 2016 673 1.5 -1.0 0.7 3.9 5.2 3.4 3.4 -1.0

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago

UNITED STATESINTEREST RATES

Federal Funds Target Rate * 11 Feb 16 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.42 0.34 0.29 0.25 0.25 0.25Prime Rate * 11 Feb 16 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.42 3.34 3.29 3.25 3.25 3.253-month Treasury Bills * 11 Feb 16 0.28 0.29 0.34 0.23 0.13 0.08 0.14 0.10 0.022-year Bonds * 11 Feb 16 0.64 0.72 0.83 0.90 0.79 0.70 0.87 0.71 0.665-year Bonds * 11 Feb 16 1.11 1.25 1.40 1.52 1.50 1.52 1.71 1.57 1.5010-year Bonds * 11 Feb 16 1.64 1.86 1.99 2.12 2.13 2.15 2.33 2.19 1.9930-year Bonds * 11 Feb 16 2.50 2.70 2.79 2.89 2.91 2.89 3.09 2.86 2.58Corporate High-yield (Lehman) * 11 Feb 16 10.10 9.39 9.26 8.87 8.18 7.22 7.80 7.10 6.18Corporate Invest. Grade (Lehman) * 11 Feb 16 3.57 3.55 3.55 3.45 3.35 3.16 3.35 3.25 2.84

Corp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 11 Feb 16 8.46 7.53 7.27 6.75 6.05 5.07 5.47 4.91 4.19Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 11 Feb 16 1.93 1.69 1.56 1.34 1.22 1.01 1.02 1.06 0.85Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 11 Feb 16 2.22 2.41 2.45 2.66 2.78 2.81 2.95 2.76 2.56

EXCHANGE RATEFED Broad (Jan 97 = 100) * 5 Feb 16 124.11 123.39 124.46 122.80 121.26 118.31 120.19 118.57 114.38

CANADAINTEREST RATES

Prime Rate * 11 Feb 16 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.76 2.70 2.70 2.85Target overnight rate * 11 Feb 16 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.7530-day commercial paper * 11 Feb 16 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.82 0.87 0.82 0.75 0.973-month Treasury Bills * 11 Feb 16 0.44 0.45 0.48 0.46 0.43 0.49 0.44 0.40 0.511-year Treasury Bills * 11 Feb 16 0.39 0.43 0.45 0.47 0.47 0.53 0.53 0.41 0.465-year Bonds * 11 Feb 16 0.50 0.60 0.68 0.73 0.77 0.82 1.00 0.72 0.7410-year Bonds * 11 Feb 16 1.02 1.15 1.24 1.36 1.42 1.49 1.70 1.39 1.4430-year Bonds * 11 Feb 16 1.84 1.96 2.05 2.12 2.18 2.19 2.40 2.09 2.05SPREADSPrime - 30d. Commercial paper * 11 Feb 16 1.85 1.85 1.84 1.84 1.88 1.89 1.88 1.95 1.88Long Term - Short Term * 11 Feb 16 1.40 1.51 1.57 1.66 1.75 1.69 1.96 1.69 1.54

CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS3-month T-Bills * 11 Feb 16 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.23 0.30 0.42 0.30 0.30 0.49Long Term Bonds * 11 Feb 16 -0.66 -0.74 -0.74 -0.77 -0.73 -0.70 -0.69 -0.77 -0.53

EXCHANGE RATEUS$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 11 Feb 16 0.7176 0.7271 0.7128 0.7242 0.7421 0.7708 0.7524 0.7658 0.7996Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 11 Feb 16 83.6 85.7 83.5 85.1 87.1 90.5 88.6 89.8 93.5

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%)Reference Past Prev. Month Year-to-dateThursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

Dow Jones (U.S.) * 11 Feb 16 15660.2 -4.5 -5.0 -2.5 -11.5 -10.0 -12.3 -9.3 1.5S&P 500 (U.S.) * 11 Feb 16 1829.1 -4.9 -4.4 -3.0 -11.9 -12.2 -11.6 -9.1 1.6NASDAQ (U.S.) * 11 Feb 16 4266.8 -8.0 -6.0 -2.6 -15.8 -15.3 -11.1 -13.5 2.0S&P/TSX (Can.) * 11 Feb 16 12087.4 -1.9 -3.7 -4.1 -9.4 -16.1 -20.2 -5.5 9.0

* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted (3) compared to same period of the preceeding year,Source: Datastream unless otherwise stated

TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORS

A1


Annualized Growth (%)

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (9)

Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

Index of 12 Leading Indicators Dec 2015 -0.2 0.5 0.5 2.9 3.0 4.4 2.7 4.4 5.8Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) Jan 2016 98.1 96.3 92.6 95.7 98.3 97.5 103.8 98.1 103.8I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) Jan 2016 48.2 48.0 48.4 48.2 49.2 50.9 53.9 48.2 53.9

Jan 2016 53.9 59.5 59.4 57.6 59.5 60.2 61.3 53.9 61.3

DOMESTIC DEMANDSales new autos & light trucks (000,000) Jan 2016 17.6 17.3 18.2 17.7 17.9 17.5 16.7 17.6 16.7Retail Sales * Jan 2016 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.9 3.4 2.1 3.4 3.4 3.9

- Motor vehicle * Jan 2016 0.6 0.5 0.6 5.9 7.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 12.4- Other * Jan 2016 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 1.0 2.5 2.5 1.8

Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) Dec 2015 0.0 0.5 0.0 -7.8 1.5 2.7 -4.7 2.7 4.2Total ($ constant) Dec 2015 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 2.9 3.1 2.6 3.1 2.7

Personal Income Dec 2015 0.3 0.3 0.4 3.6 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.4Personal Savings Rate (3) Dec 2015 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.2 4.8New Orders Dec 2015 -2.9 -0.7 1.3 -5.4 -1.8 -6.4 -3.9 -6.4 3.4

- Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft Dec 2015 -4.3 -0.9 0.6 -6.5 0.6 -3.8 -7.4 -3.8 6.3Unfilled Orders Dec 2015 -0.5 0.1 0.3 -0.8 -1.5 2.8 -1.9 2.8 10.6Business Inventories Nov 2015 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 2.8 2.6 1.6 2.5 5.0Inventories / Shipments Businesses Nov 2015 1.38 1.38 1.37 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.32 1.37 1.30Manufacturers' Shipments Dec 2015 -1.4 -0.1 -0.7 -6.7 -2.4 -4.2 -4.7 -4.2 2.5Manufacturers' Inventories Dec 2015 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -3.1 -1.5 -0.6 -1.6 -0.6 3.0Inventories / Shipments Manuf. Dec 2015 1.38 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.33 1.35 1.31Housing Starts (000) (1) Dec 2015 1149 1179 1071 1133 1146 1107 1080 1107 1001New Home Sales, single-family Dec 2015 10.8 1.9 5.5 15.3 -3.9 14.1 9.9 14.1 2.3Existing Home Sales, s.f. & condos Dec 2015 14.7 -10.5 -4.1 -20.0 7.7 6.3 7.7 6.3 -3.0

PRODUCTIONIndustrial Production Dec 2015 -0.4 -0.9 -0.2 -3.4 -0.1 1.3 -1.8 1.3 3.7

- Consumer Goods Dec 2015 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 -3.1 2.4 2.1 0.3 2.1 2.2- Hitech goods Dec 2015 1.4 -0.5 1.4 7.4 1.6 0.4 1.6 0.4 2.3

EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCESExports Dec 2015 -0.3 -0.9 -1.6 -8.2 -3.1 -4.8 -6.9 -4.8 2.8Imports Dec 2015 0.3 -1.8 -0.4 -8.6 -3.0 -3.1 -6.5 -3.1 3.4Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) Dec 2015 -43.4 -42.2 -44.6 -43.4 -44.0 -44.3 -45.5 -44.3 -42.4Real merchandise trade balance Dec 2015 -60.3 -59.2 -61.1 -60.2 -59.5 -58.7 -53.1 -58.7 -50.1Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) * Jan 2016 -405.1 -477.8 -461.5 -494.7 55.2 -17.5

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices Dec 2015 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.6 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.6

- Excluding Food and Energy Dec 2015 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.7PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy Dec 2015 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5Industrial Prices, Finished Goods Dec 2015 -0.8 0.1 -0.3 -5.7 -0.4 -3.3 -2.8 -3.3 1.9Average Hourly Earnings (4) Jan 2016 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.0Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate Dec 2015 76.5 76.9 77.7 77.0 77.5 77.8 79.0 77.8 78.1Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) Dec 2015 2.1 0.4 -1.2 -10.5 8.2 6.9 8.0 6.9 5.7

LABOUR MARKETNew Jobs (000) (6) Jan 2016 151 262 280 231 215 222 2665 151 221

- Manufacturing (000) Jan 2016 29 13 3 15 3 4 45 29 17- Services (000) Jan 2016 111 208 227 182 191 207 2489 111 161

Average weekly hours (6) Jan 2016 0.1 0.5 0.2 3.1 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.3Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) Jan 2016 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.7 4.9 5.7

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q4 2014 2014 2013 2012Real GDP Chained 2009 dollars 0.7 2.0 3.9 0.6 2.1 4.3 2.4 2.2 2.3Consumption 2.2 3.0 3.6 1.7 4.3 3.5 3.1 2.7 1.7Residential Construction 8.2 8.2 9.4 10.1 9.9 3.4 8.8 1.8 9.5Business Investment -1.8 2.6 4.1 1.6 0.7 9.0 2.9 6.2 3.0

- Machinery and Equipment 4.1 11.8 -2.6 4.8 0.0 #VALUE! 6.9 0.0 #VALUE!Government Spending 0.7 1.8 2.6 -0.1 -1.4 1.8 0.8 -0.6 -2.9Exports -2.5 0.7 5.1 -6.0 5.4 1.8 1.1 3.4 2.8Imports 1.1 2.3 3.0 7.1 10.3 -0.8 5.0 3.8 1.0Change in Inventories (1) (2) 68.6 85.5 113.5 112.8 78.2 79.9 95.1 68.0 61.4GDP Deflator 0.8 1.3 2.1 0.1 0.1 1.6 1.0 1.6 1.6Personal Disposable Income 3.2 3.8 2.6 3.9 4.7 2.7 3.5 2.7 -1.4

Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 2014 2013 2012Labour Productivity (4) -3.0 2.1 3.5 -1.1 -2.2 3.1 0.6 0.7 0.0Unit Labor Costs (4) 4.5 1.9 2.0 2.6 5.7 0.1 2.4 2.0 1.2

Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 2013 2012 2011Current Account (current $) -496.5 -444.4 -473.2 -412.6 -391.6 -368.2 -389.5 -376.8 -449.7

as a % of GDP -2.7 -2.5 -2.7 -2.3 -2.2 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.8Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 2013 2012 2011

Corporate Profits (8) -6.2 14.8 -21.1 -4.6 18.7 33.9 1.7 2.0 10.0as a % of GDP 11.4 11.6 11.4 12.1 12.3 12.0 11.9 12.4 12.8

* Update Source: Datastream(1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold (9) Compated to same period of the(2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey preceeding year, unless otherwise(3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey stated(4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes

- Non-manufacturing (level)

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORS

February 12, 2016Monthly Growth (%)

A2


TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORSFebruary 12, 2016

Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (6)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -2.5 -5.2 -0.4 -6.7 -10.4 -10.1 -14.5 -14.5 -0.6

DOMESTIC DEMANDRetail Sales ($ current) Nov 2015 1.7 0.1 -0.3 3.7 5.9 2.3 3.2 2.2 4.6

- Motor vehicle and parts dealers Nov 2015 3.5 0.4 -0.1 14.4 14.9 7.3 11.0 7.1 6.9- Other Nov 2015 1.1 0.0 -0.3 0.4 3.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 27.0

Retail Sales ($ constant) Nov 2015 1.5 -0.4 0.5 5.3 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.9 3.5

Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) Nov 2015 1.0 -1.3 -1.4 -7.4 2.3 -1.0 -0.5 -1.6 5.3New Orders Nov 2015 3.5 -1.7 -3.7 -16.5 -1.7 -3.7 -1.7 -4.1 7.4

- Durables Nov 2015 7.0 -2.2 -5.6 -20.6 -4.2 -1.7 0.7 -2.1 9.7Unfilled Orders Nov 2015 -0.3 -1.5 -1.3 -5.7 -4.4 9.9 2.5 8.9 24.2Manufacturer's Inventories Nov 2015 0.0 0.4 -0.4 2.1 4.3 1.9 3.1 1.9 4.3Inventories / Shipments Ratio Nov 2015 1.44 1.46 1.44 1.45 1.43 1.42 1.40 1.43 1.38Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) Nov 2015 1.0 -1.2 -1.3 -7.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 2.7

Housing Starts (000) (1) * Jan 2016 165.9 172.5 211.6 183.3 199.2 192.2 182.9 165.9 182.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Dec 2015 -0.6 1.9 2.1 8.1 9.1 5.5 9.6 5.5 5.2Number of commercial bankrupties (2) Aug 1900 17.9 -11.8 36.0 58.1 -6.3 -3.1 7.6 -2.0 -1.1PRODUCTION Real Domestic Product Nov 2015 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.7 2.4

- Manufacturing Nov 2015 0.4 -0.5 -0.9 -2.9 -1.5 0.3 -1.1 -0.1 2.6- Construction Nov 2015 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.6 -3.0 -1.7 -3.6 -2.1 1.2

Services Nov 2015 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.4

EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCESExports Dec 2015 3.9 0.9 -1.6 -5.9 7.1 -0.9 3.4 -0.9 10.1Imports Dec 2015 1.6 -0.7 -1.0 -7.2 3.5 4.4 2.5 4.4 7.6

- Capital Goods Dec 2015 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 2.8 5.3 8.4 8.7 8.4 17.0Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) Dec 2015 -585 -1,587 -2,333 -1,502 -1,592 -1,943 -967 -1,943 473Change in Official Reserves Oct 2015 -101 541 105 182 509 215 3,391 2,579 3,492

Level (US$): $71.9 billion Fiscal year Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) Nov 2015 7.3 7.5 5.3 -0.1 1.0 -3.3

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices Dec 2015 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.9 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.9

- Excluding Food and Energy Dec 2015 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6- Core inflation (4) Dec 2015 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.8

Average Hourly Earnings (2) * Jan 2016 0.4 0.1 0.6 4.3 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.0Price of New Housing icluding land * Dec 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.3 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.6Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Dec 2015 1.2 1.5 3.0 16.5 9.4 8.3 12.0 8.3 6.6Industrial Prices (1992=100) Dec 2015 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -4.5 1.2 -0.8 1.1 -0.8 2.5

LABOUR MARKETLabour Force * Jan 2016 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.7 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.3Job creation (000) * Jan 2016 -5.7 22.8 -32.9 -5.3 8.9 10.5 125.5 -5.7 24.2

- Manufacturing * Jan 2016 -11.0 7.1 12.6 2.9 2.8 1.4 17.1 -11.0 9.3- Services * Jan 2016 19.7 23.2 -71.2 -9.4 7.9 14.1 169.2 19.7 22.9- Full Time * Jan 2016 5.6 -9.6 37.4 11.1 6.1 14.3 171.4 5.6 -18.4- Part Time * Jan 2016 -11.3 32.4 -70.3 -16.4 2.8 -3.8 -45.9 -11.3 42.6

Unemployment Rate * Jan 2016 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.6 7.2 6.6

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 2014 2013 2012GDP Chained (2007) $ 2.3 -0.3 -0.7 3.4 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 1.7Household consumption 1.8 2.3 0.4 2.4 2.9 4.2 2.6 2.4 1.9Business Investments, non-res., mach. & equip. -5.8 -11.2 -18.5 0.9 4.7 2.1 0.0 2.5 8.6

-Machinery and Equipment -4.5 -14.5 -5.9 7.2 14.4 8.3 1.0 -6.7 2.7Residential Construction 2.5 0.1 6.3 -0.5 10.3 9.8 2.5 -0.4 5.6Government Expenditures -1.6 1.7 3.8 -0.3 -0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7Government Fixed Capital Formation -2.2 0.2 4.3 6.1 6.8 7.8 4.0 -6.4 -4.0Final Domestic Demand 0.0 0.2 -1.3 1.7 2.9 3.6 1.6 1.3 2.4Exports 9.4 1.9 -1.0 -0.2 6.9 20.7 5.3 2.8 2.6Imports -2.9 -1.9 0.4 0.3 4.7 10.3 1.8 1.8 1.5Change in Inventories, chained (2007) $ (5) 0.7 5.4 12.8 9.2 1.3 9.4 9.9 15.5 6.2Real Disposible Income 0.8 3.2 1.2 2.5 2.7 8.0 1.2 3.4 2.7Personal savings Rate 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.2 5.4 5.0GDP Price Deflator 0.4 1.8 -2.8 -2.4 2.5 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.3Corporate Profits (nominal) -6.7 -3.1 -47.5 -10.1 10.9 7.3 7.0 0.8 -5.3

as a % of GDP 11.3 11.6 11.7 13.6 14.0 13.8 13.8 13.5 13.9Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate 82.0 81.4 82.5 83.3 83.0 82.8 82.7 81.2 81.5Labour Productivity, Business Sector 0.6 -3.4 -1.9 1.9 0.8 7.5 2.5 1.3 -0.4Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector -2.0 1.4 5.1 -1.8 2.4 0.4 1.1 1.7 3.2

Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 2014 2013 2012Current Account (current $) (5) -64.8 -66.3 -76.4 -58.3 -39.6 -37.7 0.0 -44.9 -59.7

as a % of GDP -3.2 -3.3 -3.9 -2.9 -2.0 -1.9 0.0 -2.3 -3.2

Sources: Datasteam and Canadian Real Estate Association

* Update

(1) Annual Rate (4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect of indirect taxes

(2) Not Seasonally Adjusted (5) Annual rate, $ billions

(3) Current and before taxes (6) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated


Monthly Growth (%)

A3



QUEBECDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Nov 2015 1.4 0.2 -0.6 4.5 4.5 0.9 3.0 1.0 1.9Manufacturing Shipments Nov 2015 1.2 -2.6 -0.7 -11.4 1.7 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 6.5Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jan 2016 33.6 42.1 33.5 36.4 39.8 37.2 28.7 33.6 28.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Dec 2015 2.9 1.4 1.4 12.0 9.0 5.1 10.5 5.1 -0.8Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 1.1 -0.2 0.2 1.5 3.0 2.2 3.0 2.3 2.1Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 21.3 -3.8 -5.6 20.8 9.0 7.3 7.3 7.3 14.6CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 2.6 5.5 -1.0 8.4 1.6 -2.0 8.8 8.8 -0.6Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 5.5 -1.0 8.4 1.6 -2.0 8.8 #VALUE! -0.6 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Dec 2015 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 -1.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jan 2016 0.6 -0.3 0.9 4.3 4.2 2.2 2.7 2.7 1.7Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Dec 2015 -0.1 0.3 0.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.3Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Dec 2015 0.6 2.5 -3.0 0.4 3.7 1.7 3.6 1.7 1.4

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Jan 2016 -3.2 11.5 -2.3 2.0 1.6 2.5 30.5 -3.2 14.9Unemployment rate * Jan 2016 7.6 7.9 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.4Participation rate * Jan 2016 64.7 65.0 64.6 64.8 64.8 64.8 64.5 64.7 64.5

ONTARIODOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Nov 2015 2.1 0.7 -0.2 5.7 8.8 4.7 5.9 4.6 5.0Manufacturing Shipments Nov 2015 1.5 0.3 -2.4 -0.4 7.4 2.2 4.9 1.6 6.0Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jan 2016 60.1 54.1 87.8 67.3 77.4 68.8 60.1 60.1 60.1Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Dec 2015 -1.2 0.9 1.2 1.9 6.8 9.6 10.4 9.6 3.7Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 1.0 -1.1 1.1 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.2Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 4.0 -2.6 1.9 26.5 22.4 10.5 17.1 10.5 8.0CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -2.4 -4.9 0.7 -5.1 -5.5 -5.0 -13.9 -13.9 3.7Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Oct 2015 #REF! #REF! #REF! -5.5 -5.0 -13.9 #VALUE! 3.7 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Dec 2015 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.9 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.2 2.3Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jan 2016 0.3 0.1 0.4 4.3 3.8 3.2 3.6 3.6 1.8Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Dec 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 3.2 3.9 2.5 3.1 2.5 1.7Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Dec 2015 -0.1 1.3 0.7 6.2 7.1 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.0

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Jan 2016 19.8 33.0 -8.5 14.8 7.2 8.3 100.2 19.8 4.1

Unemployment rate * Jan 2016 6.7 6.7 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.8Participation rate * Jan 2016 65.4 65.2 65.1 65.3 65.2 65.2 65.2 65.4 65.2

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADORDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Nov 2015 1.6 1.1 -0.1 5.1 7.4 0.8 2.2 0.6 3.4Manufacturing Shipments Nov 2015 8.4 -6.5 3.3 -18.4 13.5 -4.7 6.6 -3.5 0.8Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jan 2016 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 5.0 1.9 5.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Dec 2015 1.1 -5.6 7.5 -3.6 10.6 3.6 1.4 3.6 -4.7Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 0.1 -1.8 0.4 -1.6 3.4 3.4 1.8 3.7 5.2Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 46.6 -21.1 -18.5 -59.2 -19.7 -30.2 -6.6 -30.2 9.2CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -2.5 8.4 -8.0 9.7 10.9 -11.2 4.8 4.8 -12.0Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Oct 2015 8.4 -8.0 9.7 10.9 -11.2 4.8 0.0 -12.0 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Dec 2015 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 -1.8 1.7 0.4 1.4 0.4 1.9Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jan 2016 -1.5 -0.1 0.3 4.4 1.4 -1.3 -1.9 -1.9 -2.2Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Dec 2015 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.9Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Dec 2015 -3.3 2.3 -4.5 -12.7 -2.9 -2.8 -2.1 -2.8 0.2

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Jan 2016 -2.4 -2.4 0.0 -1.6 -1.0 -0.6 -7.4 -2.4 0.2Unemployment * Jan 2016 14.4 14.4 13.1 14.0 13.4 13.1 11.5 14.4 11.5Participation rate * Jan 2016 60.7 61.4 61.1 61.1 61.2 61.1 60.6 60.7 60.6

PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Nov 2015 1.9 -1.1 0.5 3.4 10.7 2.1 4.6 2.1 3.4Manufacturing Shipments Nov 2015 2.5 6.5 -1.9 10.5 9.7 3.9 11.1 2.6 10.7Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jan 2016 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.6 1.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Dec 2015 -5.3 -7.9 29.1 33.6 29.1 20.4 38.8 20.4 -3.1Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 2.0 -1.0 0.7 1.9 5.1 2.4 4.7 2.5 2.1Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 11.9 -5.6 -13.4 -26.2 35.8 16.0 16.8 16.0 19.3CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -1.3 -3.2 6.4 -4.5 -20.4 10.0 -13.6 -13.6 20.5Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Oct 2015 3.2 6.4 4.5 20.4 10.0 13.6 #VALUE! 20.5 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Dec 2015 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -1.6 1.1 -0.6 0.9 -0.6 1.6Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jan 2016 0.4 0.9 1.4 16.6 -1.9 2.2 0.4 0.4 2.6Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Dec 2015 0.0 0.2 0.0 -2.5 -0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -1.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Dec 2015 2.9 2.8 11.7 26.5 -2.3 -0.6 1.7 -0.6 6.4

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Jan 2016 -0.4 -0.5 -1.0 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 -1.6 -0.4 0.7Unemployment * Jan 2016 9.5 9.8 10.3 9.9 9.9 10.4 10.3 9.5 10.3Participation rate * Jan 2016 66.1 66.5 67.5 66.7 66.9 67.4 68.3 66.1 68.3

Sources: Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS

February 12, 2016Monthly Growth (%)

A4


February 12, 2016 Annualized Growth (%)

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

NOVA SCOTIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Nov 2015 1.8 -1.1 1.2 0.6 11.0 0.1 3.6 -0.1 2.3Manufacturing Shipments Nov 2015 -2.1 -0.3 0.7 6.2 16.2 6.6 6.7 6.1 -24.8Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jan 2016 2.1 1.9 2.9 2.3 3.0 3.8 2.9 2.1 2.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Dec 2015 -18.0 4.2 -9.8 7.3 -4.7 2.5 -10.6 2.5 -2.3Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 0.3 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.1 1.9 3.4 2.0 2.8Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 10.0 11.3 -15.4 -24.8 11.2 1.1 18.3 1.1 22.3CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -2.9 5.1 -0.7 22.0 8.5 10.4 6.3 6.3 10.5Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 5.1 -0.7 22.0 8.5 10.4 6.3 #VALUE! 10.5 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Dec 2015 -0.2 -0.5 0.2 -1.7 0.8 0.4 1.2 0.4 1.7Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jan 2016 2.5 0.3 -0.4 4.8 -1.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 3.1Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Dec 2015 0.2 -0.4 0.1 -0.6 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.3Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Dec 2015 -2.6 0.4 -0.8 -6.5 3.7 2.2 0.7 2.2 -1.4

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Jan 2016 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -0.9 -0.6 -7.0 -2.4 -0.6Unemployment * Jan 2016 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.4Participation rate * Jan 2016 61.6 62.0 62.4 62.0 62.2 62.3 62.7 61.6 62.7

NEW BRUNSWICKDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Nov 2015 2.3 1.8 -0.7 7.3 11.9 3.3 7.9 3.3 3.8Manufacturing Shipments Nov 2015 -4.1 -15.5 2.4 -51.2 -18.7 -9.6 -25.7 -9.7 -6.3Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jan 2016 1.7 1.7 2.7 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Dec 2015 7.0 0.4 4.0 11.2 14.8 6.5 14.8 6.5 -0.1Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 1.0 -0.1 1.0 3.4 3.2 2.4 3.0 2.5 1.5Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 43.5 -4.7 -22.7 -61.6 -41.7 -6.4 -6.9 -6.4 -10.0CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 1.6 2.3 2.4 8.0 -1.2 0.5 -2.1 -2.1 13.9Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 2.3 2.4 8.0 -1.2 0.5 -2.1 #VALUE! 13.9 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Dec 2015 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.9 1.4 0.5 1.1 0.5 1.5Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jan 2016 0.0 0.8 0.6 6.3 -1.5 2.5 -0.5 -0.5 4.1Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Dec 2015 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Dec 2015 1.0 -4.3 1.1 -2.5 5.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.9 -0.2

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Jan 2016 -1.1 0.4 -3.5 -1.4 0.6 -0.2 -2.4 -1.1 2.7Unemployment * Jan 2016 9.3 8.9 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.7 10.1 9.3 10.1Participation rate * Jan 2016 62.3 62.3 62.0 62.2 62.3 62.6 63.3 62.3 63.3

MANITOBADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Nov 2015 2.0 -0.4 0.7 7.5 7.3 1.5 2.6 1.3 4.3Manufacturing Shipments Nov 2015 4.9 -0.8 0.6 7.7 0.3 -0.5 6.1 -1.3 2.3Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jan 2016 5.1 4.9 3.9 4.6 5.5 5.4 7.5 5.1 7.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Dec 2015 -3.7 5.5 -3.1 -7.0 3.3 1.8 6.4 1.8 0.3Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.7 3.2 2.5 2.1 2.6 3.3Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 1.2 -1.7 -11.5 8.1 2.2 3.6 14.5 3.6 6.9CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -7.5 -2.5 12.3 82.7 5.8 -4.3 7.5 7.5 -8.4Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 -2.5 12.3 82.7 5.8 -4.3 7.5 #VALUE! -8.4 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Dec 2015 -1.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 2.0 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.8Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jan 2016 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 3.0 6.5 3.6 4.2 4.2 3.2Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Dec 2015 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.8 1.1 1.7 1.1 1.6Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Dec 2015 -8.1 3.4 -2.4 -12.1 0.0 1.3 -4.6 1.3 1.5

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Jan 2016 -5.3 -1.8 -5.4 -4.2 -0.6 -0.5 -6.6 -5.3 0.5Unemployment * Jan 2016 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.0Participation rate * Jan 2016 67.4 68.0 68.3 68.0 68.0 68.2 68.8 67.4 68.8

SASKATCHEWANDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Nov 2015 0.8 -0.1 -0.6 0.7 2.0 -2.7 -1.0 -3.1 4.9Manufacturing Shipments Nov 2015 -0.5 -0.1 -2.7 -11.5 -5.4 -11.6 -11.2 -12.0 4.1Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jan 2016 4.3 5.0 7.5 5.6 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.3 5.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Dec 2015 -9.6 5.0 -1.2 -2.7 2.4 -10.8 -9.3 -10.8 2.5Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 0.4 -0.5 0.1 -2.3 0.8 2.8 0.9 2.3 4.5Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 1.3 -11.5 8.1 15.9 -3.1 -8.1 -18.5 -8.1 9.4CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 4.2 6.8 -9.6 -24.8 21.8 -14.4 6.5 6.5 -13.4Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 6.8 -9.6 -24.8 21.8 -14.4 6.5 #VALUE! -13.4 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Dec 2015 -0.8 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.6 2.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jan 2016 1.3 1.8 1.4 13.3 2.4 2.5 4.3 4.3 3.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Dec 2015 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -3.0 -1.1 -0.8 -1.2 -0.8 1.9Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Dec 2015 -0.4 0.5 3.1 2.9 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 3.6

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Jan 2016 -1.8 -4.0 1.6 -1.4 0.7 0.5 6.4 -1.8 -7.8Unemployment * Jan 2016 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.1 4.5 5.6 4.5Participation rate * Jan 2016 70.2 70.4 70.8 70.4 70.4 70.2 69.2 70.2 69.2

Sources: Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4)

Monthly Growth (%)

A5



ALBERTADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Nov 2015 1.4 -1.0 -1.0 -4.2 -0.6 -2.8 -4.1 -3.4 7.8Manufacturing Shipments Nov 2015 -0.3 -2.8 -1.1 -19.7 -8.2 -12.1 -14.4 -13.4 7.9Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jan 2016 23.5 26.0 42.9 30.8 32.6 35.9 43.6 23.5 43.6Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Dec 2015 -0.6 -0.5 -4.9 -25.8 2.5 -20.3 -24.5 -21.7 9.7Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -6.0 -5.0 1.6 -3.2 0.4 7.4Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 9.9 -1.1 -15.7 -49.6 -5.8 -24.1 -29.6 -24.1 17.9CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -12.8 -11.4 3.4 -34.9 -42.7 -42.3 -47.4 -47.4 -18.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 -11.4 3.4 -34.9 -42.7 -42.3 -47.4 #VALUE! -18.8 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Dec 2015 -0.9 -0.3 0.4 -0.9 2.6 1.2 1.5 1.2 2.6Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jan 2016 -0.2 -0.5 0.2 1.0 2.8 3.5 2.5 2.5 1.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Dec 2015 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 -0.4 0.7 -0.4 0.7 3.4Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Dec 2015 2.4 -0.3 0.8 0.9 0.1 -2.1 -0.3 -2.1 5.0

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Jan 2016 -10.0 -3.9 -9.4 -7.8 -3.5 -2.9 -35.0 -10.0 5.4Unemployment * Jan 2016 7.4 7.0 6.9 7.1 6.8 6.3 4.6 7.4 4.6Participation rate * Jan 2016 72.7 72.7 72.9 72.8 72.9 73.0 72.9 72.7 72.9

BRITISH COLUMBIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Nov 2015 1.8 -0.4 0.5 5.9 6.6 6.7 5.4 6.8 5.7Manufacturing Shipments Nov 2015 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 -3.0 -2.2 2.9 -0.1 2.2 6.7Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jan 2016 33.1 35.2 28.1 32.1 31.5 32.0 27.3 33.1 27.3Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Dec 2015 2.6 5.1 7.4 48.3 22.3 22.0 30.6 22.0 15.2Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 1.0 -0.3 0.2 2.7 2.7 3.3 4.4 3.3 4.0Value of merchandise exports * Dec 2015 -3.0 14.2 -8.8 -8.0 -1.6 0.3 -2.2 0.3 7.0CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -4.6 -1.1 1.4 5.3 -16.3 -6.0 -12.4 -12.4 -0.3Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 -1.1 1.4 5.3 -16.3 -6.0 -12.4 #VALUE! -0.3 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Dec 2015 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 -1.1 2.0 1.1 1.9 1.1 1.0Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jan 2016 0.4 0.7 1.0 4.8 1.6 2.8 1.9 1.9 2.3Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Dec 2015 0.2 0.4 0.3 3.7 2.8 0.8 2.3 0.8 -1.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Dec 2015 3.1 1.1 8.2 36.8 12.7 11.7 19.4 11.7 6.1

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Jan 2016 1.2 -7.0 -2.1 -2.6 4.8 4.0 48.6 1.2 4.1Unemployment * Jan 2016 6.6 6.7 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.2 5.6 6.6 5.6Participation rate * Jan 2016 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.0 63.5 62.9 64.1 62.9

Sources: Datastream, Canadian Real estate Association and BCStats

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

February 12, 2016

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5)

Monthly Growth (%)

A6


TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSFebruary 12, 2016


OECD leading index * Dec 2015 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.4

JAPANConsumer confidence - percenbtage (1) Jan 2016 42.1 41.8 41.8 41.9 41.7 41.6 39.2 42.1 39.2Retail Sales (1) Dec 2015 16.0 -0.5 3.0 20.4 5.4 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 1.7Industrial Production, Volume Index Dec 2015 -1.4 -0.9 1.4 2.8 -3.2 -0.9 -1.6 -0.9 2.1Exports Dec 2015 -3.8 0.9 0.1 -7.4 -5.4 3.6 -8.9 3.6 4.6Imports Dec 2015 -4.0 -2.5 -1.5 -22.4 -8.0 -8.6 -17.2 -8.6 5.6Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ¥) * Dec 2015 819 1,032 -491 453 -930 -586 -3,350 -7,035 -105,521Current account (Billions of ¥) * Dec 2015 164 142 149 152 137 136 99 1,629 264Inflation (CPI) Dec 2015 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 2.7Job offers to applicants ratio Dec 2015 1.27 1.25 1.24 1.25 1.24 1.20 1.14 1.20 1.09Unemployment Rate Dec 2015 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.6

Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 2014 2013 2012Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) 1.0 -0.5 4.4 1.8 -2.8 -7.2 -0.1 1.4 1.7

Euro-zoneVolume Retail Sales Dec 2015 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 1.6 2.5 1.6 2.5 1.2Industrial Production exc. Construction * Dec 2015 -1.0 -0.5 0.9 -0.3 0.3 1.3 -0.3 1.3 0.8Exports Nov 2015 1.6 0.2 0.9 -3.2 -0.3 5.2 3.8 5.1 1.9Imports Nov 2015 -0.1 0.2 0.6 -4.9 0.1 1.9 2.1 2.1 0.7Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) Nov 2015 22,662 19,833 19,776 20,757 19,616 20,467 20,290 225,427 167,496Inflation (CPI) Jan 2016 -1.4 0.0 -0.2 -1.8 -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 -0.6Unemployment Rate Dec 2015 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.4 10.9 11.6

Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 2013 2012 2011Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) * 1.1 1.2 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.2 -0.4 -0.7 0.0

UNITED KINGDOMConsumer Confidence (Diffusion index) Jan 2016 4 4 1 3 2 3 3 4 3Retail Sales Dec 2015 -1.1 1.3 -0.3 4.9 3.8 4.5 2.6 4.5 4.0Manufacturing, energy and mining output * Dec 2015 -1.1 -0.8 0.1 -2.1 0.3 1.0 -0.3 1.0 1.3Exports (1) * Dec 2015 -0.3 -1.6 -2.6 -2.6 -7.6 -2.8 -5.6 -2.8 -4.1Imports (1) * Dec 2015 -4.8 -0.5 5.8 1.7 -1.5 -1.5 -13.0 -1.5 -1.1Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of £) * Dec 2015 -9,917 -11,503 -11,308 -10,909 -10,531 -10,315 -10,612 -125,028 -123,143

Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) * Dec 2015 0.3 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.6Producer price index, manufacturing (1) Dec 2015 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -2.0 -1.2 -1.6 -1.2 -1.6 0.0House prices Jan 2016 1.7 2.0 0.0 9.2 10.6 9.0 10.4 10.4 9.5Unemployment Rate (3-month mov. av.) Nov 2015 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.4 6.4

Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 2015 2014 2013Gross Domestic Product (Constant £) 2.0 1.8 2.2 1.5 2.7 1.5 2.2 2.9 2.2

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago

JAPANPrime Rate * 11 Feb 16 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.303-month Financing Bill Rate * 11 Feb 16 na -0.17 -0.03 -0.05 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 0.00 0.00

- Spread with U.S. * 11 Feb 16 na -0.46 -0.37 -0.28 -0.16 -0.09 -0.17 -0.10 -0.02Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 11 Feb 16 0.01 0.06 0.23 0.23 0.28 0.34 0.31 0.38 0.39

- Spread with U.S. * 11 Feb 16 -1.63 -1.80 -1.76 -1.89 -1.85 -1.81 -2.01 -1.81 -1.60Exchange Rate (¥/U.S.$) * 11 Feb 16 112.4 116.8 118.8 119.5 120.1 120.9 122.6 124.4 119.1

Euro Zone3-month Treasury Bills * 11 Feb 16 -0.20 -0.19 -0.17 -0.14 -0.10 -0.05 -0.09 -0.03 0.02

- Spread with U.S. * 11 Feb 16 -0.48 -0.48 -0.51 -0.37 -0.22 -0.13 -0.23 -0.13 0.00Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 11 Feb 16 0.00 120.30 119.98 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00 0.00 $$ER: E100

- Spread with U.S. * 11 Feb 16 -1.64 118.44 118.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -2.33 -2.19 #VALUE!Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 11 Feb 16 1.13 1.12 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.08 1.11 1.14

(Yen/Euro) * 11 Feb 16 127.30 131.49 129.62 130.29 132.52 133.41 131.92 138.23 135.72(Euro / £ ) * 11 Feb 16 1.27 1.31 1.31 1.35 1.36 1.38 1.42 1.41 1.36

UNITED KINGDOMPrime Rate #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!3-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 11 Feb 16 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.48 0.47 0.32

- Spread with U.S. * 11 Feb 16 0.20 0.19 0.14 0.25 0.34 0.38 0.34 0.37 0.30Yield on 30-year Gov't Bonds * 11 Feb 16 2.17 2.37 2.43 2.52 2.54 2.56 2.70 2.51 2.41

- Spread with U.S. * 11 Feb 16 -0.33 -0.33 -0.36 -0.38 -0.37 -0.33 -0.40 -0.35 -0.17Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / £ ) * 11 Feb 16 1.45 1.46 1.44 1.48 1.51 1.52 1.52 1.56 1.54

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Since

Past Prev. Month beginning of year

Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

MSCI Eafe * Feb 2016 208 -5.2 -2.5 -2.9 -10.2 -15.8 -12.5 -7.5 -0.3

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated Source: Datastream


Monthly Growth (%)

A7


Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%)

Last Prev. Week For the Last Last

Fev 11 Fev 4 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year

INDICES THOMSON-REUTERS

Total 363.1 370.9 -2.1 0.7 2.6 -22.5 -18.2 -16.7 435.8

Energy 268.4 290.0 -7.4 -2.0 9.8 -68.3 -54.0 -38.6 437.2Grain 284.9 290.0 -1.7 0.6 -0.6 -9.0 -9.9 -9.6 315.1Industrials 314.2 329.0 -4.5 0.9 0.9 -24.3 -23.2 -14.9 369.4Livestock & Meat 358.6 371.1 -3.4 0.5 1.8 30.3 -9.4 -7.3 386.9Precious Metals 769.6 720.7 6.8 4.2 2.8 57.5 7.2 -8.3 839.7

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold ($/ounce) 1223.25 1146.25 6.7 2.4 2.0 60.0 19.9 -0.2 1225.25(AM fixing London)

Platinum ($/ounce) 939.0 890.0 5.5 0.7 8.2 27.3 -10.2 -21.9 1202.0(AM fixing London)

Silver ($/ounce) 15.9 14.9 7.0 4.4 2.0 55.3 6.0 -5.9 16.9(Handy & Harman)

Palladium ($/ounce troy) 521.0 509.0 2.4 2.0 0.4 -28.7 -29.2 -32.5 772.0

OTHER METALS (LME)

Aluminum ($/tonne) 1,485 1,535 -3.3 1.3 2.0 0.9 -7.5 -18.7 1,826

Copper ($/tonne) 4,454 4,692 -5.1 3.3 2.4 -28.0 -26.0 -22.6 5,752

Zinc ($/tonne) 1,711 1,718 -0.4 9.0 5.0 31.6 -12.7 -19.9 2,136

Nickel ($/tonne) 7,562 8,507 -11.1 -0.5 -1.8 -57.7 -47.4 -48.4 14,648

Lead ($/tonne) 1,840 1,805 1.9 8.0 2.0 73.1 12.8 1.1 1,820

Uranium (UxC-Ux U308 Spot $/pound) 34.25 34.65 -1.2 -0.3 -0.3 -18.1 -9.5 -10.5 38.25

OTHER COMMODITIES

Oil WTI ($/barrel) future 26.21 31.72 -17.4 -4.5 12.5 -84.5 -61.5 -48.8 51.21(NYMEX)

Oil (Spead with WTI $/barrel) 1st future -12.15 -14.25 -14.7 -3.4 5.4 -55.8 -60.8 -9.0 -13.35(West Canadian select - CME)

Corn (¢/bushel) 354.0 362.0 -2.2 0.3 0.3 -4.4 3.2 -2.7 364.0(Illinois #2)

Soy beans (¢/bushel) 864.5 865.5 -0.1 0.2 -1.4 3.8 -19.7 -11.3 975.0(Illinois #1)

Pork (¢/lb) 150.1 131.5 14.2 0.0 -0.6 63.6 53.8 67.7 89.5

Beef (Cattle feeder index) 158.8 159.7 -0.6 -0.8 1.9 -42.2 -46.3 -24.7 210.9(CME)

Woodpulp NBSK 900 900 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 903Metric ton delivered in U.S.

Natural Gas (mmbtu) 2.12 2.05 3.4 -3.3 -3.6 23.8 -47.3 -26.1 2.87Henry Hub future NYMEX

Lumber 2X4 246 250 -1.8 3.6 1.0 -14.5 -7.7 -20.9 311

Iron ore ($/metric ton) 45 45 0.0 4.7 2.4 -24.1 -41.4 -29.4 64

All prices are in US dollars Source: Datastream

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 6 - COMMODITY PRICES

February 12, 2016

A8


ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY

Montreal Office Toronto Office 514-879-2529 416-869-8598 Stéfane Marion Marc Pinsonneault Warren Lovely Chief Economist & Strategist Senior Economist MD, Public Sector Research and Strategy [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Paul-André Pinsonnault Matthieu Arseneau Senior Fixed Income Economist Senior Economist [email protected] [email protected]

Krishen Rangasamy Angelo Katsoras Senior Economist Geopolitical Associate Analyst [email protected] [email protected]

General: National Bank Financial Markets is a business undertaken by National Bank Financial Inc. (“NBF”), an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada, and a division of National Bank of Canada. This research has been produced by NBF. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Canadian Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make further inquiry related to this report or effect any transaction, Canadian residents should contact their NBF Investment advisor. U.S. Residents: With respect to the distribution of this report in the United States, National Bank of Canada Financial Inc. (NBCFI) is regulated by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and a member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). This report has been prepared in whole or in part by, research analysts employed by non-US affiliates of NBCFI that are not registered as broker/dealers in the US. These non-US research analysts are not registered as associated persons of NBCFI and are not licensed or qualified as research analysts with FINRA or any other US regulatory authority and, accordingly, may not be subject (among other things) to FINRA restrictions regarding communications by a research analyst with the subject company, public appearances by research analysts and trading securities held a research analyst account. All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analysts’ personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the analysts’ compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. The analyst responsible for the production of this report certifies that the views expressed herein reflect his or her accurate personal and technical judgment at the moment of publication. Because the views of analysts may differ, members of the National Bank Financial Group may have or may in the future issue reports that are inconsistent with this report, or that reach conclusions different from those in this report. To make further inquiry related to this report, United States residents should contact their NBCFI registered representative. UK Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, National Bank Financial Inc. has approved the contents (including, where necessary, for the purposes of Section 21(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000). National Bank Financial Inc. and/or its parent and/or any companies within or affiliates of the National Bank of Canada group and/or any of their directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long or short positions in, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may act or may have acted as market maker in the relevant securities or related financial instruments discussed in this report, or may act or have acted as investment and/or commercial banker with respect thereto. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. The investments contained in this report are not available to retail customers. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for the securities described herein nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This information is only for distribution to Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority. National Bank Financial Inc. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and has its registered office at 71 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 4HD. National Bank Financial Inc. is not authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority to accept deposits in the United Kingdom. Copyright: This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of National Bank Financial.

February 12, 2016 · growth” due to declines in equity prices, higher borrowing rates for riskier borrowers, and a further appreciation of the dollar. She agreed that those, as

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