Feasibility Study for a Proposed Multi- County ATV Trail ...dev.njrati.org/.../CATV-Feasibility-Study-2-26-2016... · Feasibility Study for a Proposed Multi-County ATV Trail System

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Feasibility Study for a Proposed Multi-

County ATV Trail System in Central

West Virginia

Performed for the West

Virginia Joint Committee

on Government and

Finance

February 2016

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Feasibility Study for a Proposed Multi-County ATV Trail

System in Central West Virginia

Prepared by:

Rahall Transportation Institute 907 Third Avenue Huntington, WV

Justin Matthews Senior Research Associate

Center for Business and Economic Research

Kent Sowards Director of Research and Strategy

Rahall Transportation Institute Center for Business and Economic Research

Amanda Payne Trails Program Area Manager

Rahall Transportation Institute

The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the accuracy of the

data presented herein. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the

official policy or position of Marshall University or its governing bodies. The use of trade names, if

applicable, does not signify endorsement by the authors.

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Table of Contents

Introduction................................................................................................................................. 6

Figure 1. Study Area Counties ................................................................................................. 7

Considerations and Study Limitations ......................................................................................... 8

Limited Liability and Legislative Efforts ................................................................................... 8

Grant Funding and State Resources ........................................................................................ 9

Trail layout ............................................................................................................................... 9

Regional Infrastructure ............................................................................................................... 9

Figure 2. Study Area Public Lands .......................................................................................... 11

Figure 3. Study Area Parcel Analysis ...................................................................................... 12

Construction, Operation, Maintenance and Security ............................................................... 13

Figure 4. Three Potential Trail Alignments ........................................................................... 14

Construction/Preparation ..................................................................................................... 14

Table 2: Total Construction Estimates (Full Construction) .................................................... 15

Table 3: Total Construction Expenditures (Assistance Provided) ......................................... 16

Table 4: Estimated Annual Total Operating Costs (Full Operations) ..................................... 17

Table 5: Estimated Annual Total Operating Costs (Assisted Operations) ............................. 18

Demand and Potential Usage .................................................................................................... 19

Table 6: Population and Estimated Number of Participants by Percentage of U.S. Total

Participating in OHV Recreation, 2007 .................................................................................. 19

Table 7: Projected 5 Year Revenue ........................................................................................ 20

Table 8: Estimated Non-Local Visitors and Spending Patterns ............................................. 21

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Economic Impact Analysis Results ............................................................................................ 21

Construction Impact .............................................................................................................. 22

Table 9: Estimated Construction Impacts (Full Construction) ............................................... 23

Table 10: Estimated Construction Impacts (Construction/Equipment Assistance) .............. 24

Operations Impact ................................................................................................................. 25

Table 11: Estimated One Year Operations Impacts (Full Operations) .................................. 25

Table 12: Estimated One Year Operations Impacts (Operations Assistance) ....................... 25

Visitor Spending ..................................................................................................................... 26

Table 13: Estimated One Year Visitor Spending Impacts ...................................................... 26

Total Estimated One-Year Impacts ........................................................................................ 26

Table 14: Total One Year Impacts (Full Construction) ........................................................... 27

Table 15: Total One Year Impacts (Construction/Equipment Assistance) ............................ 28

Financial Feasibility and Sustainability ...................................................................................... 29

Figure 4: Year-One Pro Forma Income Statement (Full Construction/Operations) .............. 30

Figure 5: Year-One Pro Forma Income Statement (Construction/Operation Assistance) .... 31

Figure 6: Scenario 2 Five-Year Projected Pro Forma Income Statement (Full Construction) 33

Figure 7: Scenario 2 Five-Year Projected Pro Forma Income Statement

(Construction/Operation Assistance) .................................................................................... 34

Public participation ................................................................................................................... 35

Table 15. Overview of Public and Stakeholder Engagement ................................................ 36

Concluding Recommendations ................................................................................................. 37

Appendix A – Copy of HCR 118 Text ......................................................................................... 40

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Appendix B – Demographic Analysis ......................................................................................... 43

Appendix C – Study Area Map ................................................................................................... 60

Appendix D – Potential Trail Alignment .................................................................................... 61

Appendix E – County-level Parcel Maps .................................................................................... 62

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Introduction

West Virginia House Concurrent Resolution 118 (2011) requested that the Joint Committee on

Government and Finance “conduct a feasibility study for a proposed multi-county All-Terrain

Vehicle trail system in Central West Virginia (CATV).” Defining the study area as Braxton, Clay,

Gilmer, Lewis, Calhoun, Nicholas and Webster counties, HCR 118 (2011) resolved that the

Committee work with the Rahall Appalachian Transportation Institute (RTI) in collaboration

with the Marshall University Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) to conduct the

study and present its findings to the West Virginia Legislature. The text of HCR 118 (2011) is

included as Appendix A.

Similar to the Hatfield-McCoy trail region, the seven counties (Figure 1) included within the

study area have suffered economic hardship due in part to a loss of natural resource-based

industry activity. However, the vast networks of residual trail systems from existing recreation

activities in addition to those from natural extraction provide West Virginia with an excellent

opportunity to boost economic development within the region. The study region is located

within a day’s drive of highly populated areas where there is a shortage of motorized trail-

related opportunities. Additional discussion related to the demographics and infrastructure of

the study region is discussed in the later sections as well as in Appendix B.

The structure of this report begins with initial considerations and study limitations; continues

with a description of the existing and necessary physical infrastructure; examines estimated

expenditures and factors related to construction, operation, maintenance and security; and

provides a discussion related to demand and potential usage. Those components help

illuminate an economic impact estimation and a financial feasibility/sustainability analysis. The

final two components include a summary of the public outreach and information gathering that

occurred during the study time frame and a set of concluding recommendations.

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Figure 1. Study Area Counties

Source: RTI

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Considerations and Study Limitations

Limited Liability and Legislative Efforts

West Virginia Code §20-14 relating to the Hatfield-McCoy Regional Recreation Authority

(HMRRA) codified legislative findings that in addition to a significant need for ”well-managed

facilities for trail-oriented recreation for off-highway motor vehicle enthusiasts”, that “under an

appropriate contractual and management scheme, well-managed, trail-oriented recreation

facilities could exist on private property without diminishing the landowner's interest, control

or profitability in the land and without increasing the landowner's exposure to liability”.1 As

such the West Virginia Legislature provided a mechanism limiting the “liability for injury to the

property of persons entering thereon and by limiting their liability to persons who may be

injured or otherwise damaged by the acts or omissions”2 on private property made available for

public recreational usage through HMRRA. Changes to West Virginia Code, mirroring (or at least

similar in nature to) §20-14 are considered necessary to the development and operation of any

similar recreational trail system or operation. Without the limited liability provision, access to

and use of private land for trail development and segmentation is substantively unachievable.

As of the completion of this report, related legislative efforts were underway as part of the

2016 Regular Session. Senate Bill 4853, a bill set to amend state code (by creating §20-14A

Regional Recreation Authority Trail Act) provides for such limited liability subject to participant

permitting. As of February 23, 2016, Senate Bill 485 had passed in the WV Senate and was

introduced in the House with a reference to the Judiciary Committee.4

1 http://www.legis.state.wv.us/WVCODE/ChapterEntire.cfm?chap=20&art=14 2 http://www.legis.state.wv.us/WVCODE/ChapterEntire.cfm?chap=20&art=14 3 http://www.legis.state.wv.us/Bill_Status/bills_history.cfm?INPUT=485&year=2016&sessiontype=RS 4 Ibid

http://www.legis.state.wv.us/WVCODE/ChapterEntire.cfm?chap=20&art=14

http://www.legis.state.wv.us/WVCODE/ChapterEntire.cfm?chap=20&art=14

http://www.legis.state.wv.us/Bill_Status/bills_history.cfm?INPUT=485&year=2016&sessiontype=RS

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Grant Funding and State Resources

For the purposes of this analysis and the accompanying financial calculations, no grant awards

from the state, nor any ongoing contributions for the construction or development of trail

assets, staff training or system operation were anticipated. Securing either public or private

funding would have an obvious positive impact to the financial calculus, but given the current

fiscal environment, it was determined to produce an evaluation of feasibility absent those

contributions.

Trail layout

This study examines three trail layout alternatives derived from an analysis of available tax

parcel data for the study counties. It should be noted that the physical examination of the

parcel, including an analysis of topography proved beyond the scope of this phase of research,

in part due to private parcel ownership. Instead, the three layouts are presented as

representative lengths and locations used to develop approximate lengths for the calculation of

cost and potential revenues. Further discussion of the study area counties and potential trail

layouts are discussed in the Physical Infrastructure section.

Regional Infrastructure

The CATV study region is characterized by largely rural and densely populated areas. Commonly

referred to as the “Mountain Lakes” region, this area is serviced and connected by Interstate 79

and U.S. Route 19. Throughout the remainder of this report the words “region” or “study area”

will refer to the entire seven county area.

The study area has steadily lost population since the mid-2000s and remains behind the state in

terms of per capita income. Study area employment is dominated by Government, Health Care

and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Mining and Accommodations and Food Service industries.

While low paying, industries such as Retail Trade and Accommodation and Food Service

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represent an opportunity for growth as these industries would support visitors of a CATV

system.

Table 1: 2012 Establishments, Annual Payroll and Paid Employees

Retail Trade Establishments Annual Payroll

($1,000) Paid Employees

Braxton 67 13,500 572 Calhoun 19 2,380 128 Clay 17 2,688 134 Gilmer 22 3,228 157 Lewis 75 23,614 1,063 Nicholas 109 34,687 1,505 Webster 21 3,234 153 Accommodation and Food

Establishments Annual Payroll ($1,000)

Paid Employees

Braxton 27 4,801 334 Calhoun 4 390 32 Clay 4 391 20 to 99 Gilmer 11 1,839 162 Lewis 38 12,131 760 Nicholas 59 9,984 814 Webster 9 803 58

Source: American factfinder, U.S. Census Bureau

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Figure 2. Study Area Public Lands

Source: RTI

The uneven availability of GIS-enabled parcel data from each of the study county tax assessors,

as well as taking public lands (Figure 2) into consideration represented a challenge to the parcel

analysis. However the study team was able to acquire parcel data from West Virginia Division

of Forestry (for each study area county save for Calhoun, which was incomplete). Figure 3

provides an illustration of parcels in the study region collated from the West Virginia State-wide

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Forest Resource Assessment. This data source provided access to information related

specifically to parcel size, but not ownership.

Figure 3. Study Area Parcel Analysis

Source: RTI

For the study area, the vast majority of parcels are of an acreage equal to or under 100 acres.

As illustrated in Figure 3, the parcels of the largest acreage (shown in dark green) are

concentrated in the southern portions of the study area, including Monongahela National

Forest lands in Webster and Nicholas counties. A study area map with additional detail is

included in Appendix C. County-level parcel maps are provided in Appendix E.

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Construction, Operation, Maintenance and Security

Planning for the design, construction, operations and management of a CATV trail system is

paramount and this feasibility study offers a preliminary assessment of the proposed system.

Without data specific to the construction and operations of a potential seven county CATV trail

system in West Virginia, the true cost of creation and operations, as well as the impacts to the

economy are difficult to quantify. Building upon publicly available data related to regional

construction wages and costs, as well as pertinent demographic and regional demand data, this

study includes assumptions and estimates of construction, operations and a preliminary

economic impact based on data relevant to a potential CATV system. It should be noted that

detailed planning relating to the specific trail routes and trail-head locations will need to be

completed prior to the advancement of the project.

A county level analysis of contiguous land parcels in the seven county study area was

performed in order to determine available land and the length of potential routes for a CATV

trail system. A preliminary assessment of the study area found usable land which could possibly

be developed into three alternative trail routes of differing length: 38.01 miles, 59.38 miles and

202 miles (see Figure 4 and Appendix D).

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Figure 4. Three Potential Trail Alignments

Construction/Preparation

Construction costs for similar projects in various locations were developed and adjusted for

regional wage differences in order to calculate an estimated cost per mile for each component

of construction and maintenance for each of the three potential trail mileages. The cost

scenarios were developed under two alternative assumptions:

1 -trail preparation and construction with all costs assumed by a CATV system, and

2 - trail preparation and construction through contracting of trail construction services and

equipment (foregoing the purchase of their own equipment).

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Construction spending and estimated impacts are “one-time” as the activities only occur during

the construction period. Table 2 contains the total estimated construction costs in 2015 dollars

by activity.

Table 2: Total Construction Estimates (Full Construction)

2015 Spending Estimates (Full Construction)

Construction Category Scenario 1

38.01 Miles

Scenario 2

59.38 Miles

Scenario 3

202 Miles

Contract Trail Construction and Technical

Assistance

$21,272 $33,231 $113,047

Trailhead and Connector Assistance $17,518 $27,367 $93,098

Single-track Trail Construction $20,855 $32,580 $110,831

Trailbed Preparation $16,684 $26,064 $88,665

Signs $34,081 $53,242 $181,120

Barriers & Gates $5,527 $8,634 $29,371

Trail Construction Tractor $73,892 $73,892 $73,892

Field Equipment $14,210 $14,210 $14,210

Total Trail Construction and Preparation $204,038 $269,220 $704,233

With full construction and the purchase of trail equipment, total estimated construction costs

are $204,038, $269,220 and $704,233 for scenarios one, two and three respectively. However,

not all dollars will necessarily be spent within the impact area. Some will accrue to firms outside

the region and only locally retained spending will generate an impact in the region.

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Table 3: Total Construction Expenditures (Assistance Provided)

2015 Spending Estimates

(Assistance Provided)

Construction Category Scenario 1

38.01 Miles

Scenario 2

59.38 Miles

Scenario 3

202 Miles

Contract Trail Construction and Technical

Assistance

$21,272 $33,231 $113,047

Trailhead and Connector Assistance $17,518 $27,367 $93,098

Single-track Trail Construction $20,855 $32,580 $110,831

Trailbed Preparation $16,684 $26,064 $88,665

Signs $34,081 $53,242 $181,120

Barriers & Gates $5,527 $8,634 $29,371

Total Trail Construction and Preparation $115,937 $181,118 $616,131

In the event a CATV trail system is created with contract assistance which reduces costs by

eliminating trail construction and maintenance equipment, total estimated construction costs

are $115937, $181,118 and $616,131 for scenarios one, two and three respectively. Once again,

not all dollars will necessarily be spent within the impact area and some will likely fall to firms

outside the region.

Staffing & Operations

Tables 4 and 5 contain the estimates for one year of operations for all three mileage scenarios.

Similar to the construction costs, staffing and operations costs were developed for under two

alternative assumptions: full costs borne by a CATV system, or potential assistance provided to

the newly created trail system. The largest operating expenditures consist of employee

compensation and furniture, tools and equipment. Annual operating costs do not vary across

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alternatives because they do not depend on mileage and are estimated to be $899,500 for all

three full construction and operations scenarios.

Table 4: Estimated Annual Total Operating Costs (Full Operations)

2015 Estimated Costs (Full Operations)

Category Scenario 1

38.01 Miles

Scenario 2

59.38 Miles

Scenario 3

202 Miles

Employee Compensation

Director/Manager $82,630 $82,630 $82,630

Marketing $47,110 $47,110 $47,110

Accountant/Payroll $32,280 $32,280 $32,280

Administrative Assistant $23,230 $23,230 $23,230

Travel, Training and Memberships $100,000 $100,000 $100,000

Office Rental $129,750 $129,750 $129,750

Furniture/Tools/Equipment $130,860 $130,860 $130,860

Utilities $32,100 $32,100 $32,100

Promotional Activities $26,500 $26,500 $26,500

User Maps $43,620 $43,620 $43,620

Trucks/Trailers $156,310 $156,310 $156,310

Motorcycles/OHVs $56,840 $56,840 $56,840

Vehicle Maintenance $34,398 $34,398 $34,398

Service Charges $3,871 $3,871 $3,871

Total Staffing and Operations $899,500 $899,500 $899,500

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Operating costs under a scenario with assistance we once again see the largest expenditures

are employee compensation and furniture, tools and equipment but total operating costs

decrease as this assumption eliminates the need for trail equipment, trail vehicles and related

maintenance expenses. Annual operating costs are estimated to be $651,951 for all three

assisted operations scenarios.

Table 5: Estimated Annual Total Operating Costs (Assisted Operations)

2015 Estimated Costs (Assisted Operations)

Category Scenario 1

38.01 Miles

Scenario 2

59.38 Miles

Scenario 3

202 Miles

Employee Compensation

Director/Manager $82,630 $82,630 $82,630

Marketing $47,110 $47,110 $47,110

Accountant/Payroll $32,280 $32,280 $32,280

Administrative Assistant $23,230 $23,230 $23,230

Travel, Training and Memberships $100,000 $100,000 $100,000

Office Rental $129,750 $129,750 $129,750

Furniture/Tools/Equipment $130,860 $130,860 $130,860

Utilities $32,100 $32,100 $32,100

Promotional Activities $26,500 $26,500 $26,500

User Maps $43,620 $43,620 $43,620

Service Charges $3,871 $3,871 $3,871

Total Staffing and Operations $651,951 $651,951 $651,951

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Demand and Potential Usage

The popularity of Off Highway Vehicle (OHV) recreation is increasing and represents an

opportunity for a year over year increase in riders, permits sold, and permit revenue. Table 6

contains population size, percent of U.S. population, OHV participation rate, estimated number

of OHV participants and the proportion that West Virginia and bordering states contributes to

the national total of OHV users. In West Virginia, almost 34 percent of the population aged 16

and older participates in OHV riding and recreation. Surrounding states also have significant

percentage of OHV riders and participants, and overall 17 percent of United States OHV users

live in West Virginia or its neighbors.

Table 6: Population and Estimated Number of Participants by Percentage of U.S. Total Participating

in OHV Recreation, 2007

State Population

Aged 16

and Older

(1000s)

Percent of

U.S.

Population

(16 and

Older)

Percent

Participating

in OHV

Recreation

OHV

Participants

(1000s)

Percent of

Total U.S.

Participants

Kentucky 3,275.8 1.4% 22.6% 757.8 1.8%

Maryland 4,356.7 1.9% 14.3% 638.9 1.5%

Ohio 8,911.1 3.9% 15.6% 1,427.2 3.3%

Pennsylvania 9,848.8 4.3% 18.8% 1,899.8 4.4%

Tennessee 4,696.5 2.0% 18.9% 909.8 2.1%

Virginia 5,959.5 2.6% 19.1% 1,168.7 2.7%

West Virginia 1,455.6 0.6% 33.7% 502.3 1.2%

Source: “Off-Highway Vehicle Recreation in the United States and its Regions and States: An Update National

Report from the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment. February 2008. (NSRE 1999-2004. Versions

1-16, except 3, 6, 12. NSRE 2005-2007, Versions 2 & 3).

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To develop CATV rider estimates and projected permit revenues, ATV trail demand data and in-

state versus out-of-state demographic data from peer facilities were used. Out of state riders

were assumed to make up 47 percent of the CATV market, with the remaining 53 percent

attributed to West Virginia ATV enthusiasts. Estimated revenues for year 1 are a little over

$145,000 but modeling the growth of permit sales from peer facilities over years 2 through 5,

we see that revenues could approach $1 million (Table 7) in year 5.

Table 7: Projected 5 Year Revenue

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Projected Permit Sales 3,861 9,651 13,920 21,512 24,285

In-State 2,030 5,074 7,319 11,310 12,768

$53,795 $134,467 $193,947 $299,726 $338,363

Out of State 1,831 4,577 6,601 10,202 11,517

$91,549 $28,838 $330,062 $510,078 $575,830

Projected Revenue $145,345 $363,305 $524,009 $809,805 $914,193

Approximately 47 percent of potential trail riders were assumed to be out-of-state visitors and

off-site spending categories considered were restaurants/prepared food, accommodations,

souvenir and retail shopping, other attractions and fuel. Out-of-state visitor spending is shown

in Table 8 below. Purchases consist mostly of accommodations and fuel but estimated year-one

spending is estimated to be $439,968 with an additional $56,218 in sales taxes generated.

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Table 8: Estimated Non-Local Visitors and Spending Patterns

Total Estimated

Riders

3,861

Out of State Visitors 1,831

Spending Category Tax Estimate

Accommodations $166,466 $4,994

Prepared Food $73,459 $4,408

Retail Shopping $36,734 $2,230

Entertainment $23,680 $946

Fuel $139,629 $43,165

Total $439,968 $56,218

Economic Impact Analysis Results

The study team used the IMPLAN©5 regional economic input-output (I-O) software to analyze

the impact of facility construction costs on the area. IMPLAN© analyzes the relationships

between industries and socioeconomic characteristics of the local economy.6 The resulting

economic impact provides estimates of income, output and employment as they directly and

indirectly affect the area economy. For the purpose of this analysis, monetary output values

represent 2015 dollars.7

5 IMPLAN© stands for IMpact analysis for PLANning. For more information please visit the IMPLAN Group, LLC website at http://implan.com/. 6 This model uses a Type SAM (Social Accounting Matrix) multiplier. A Type SAM multiplier represents the direct, indirect and induced effects of spending and re-spending $1 in the regional economy (IMPLAN 2014). Further detail is provided in the “Measuring Direct, Indirect and Induced Effects” subsection. 7 The IMPLAN© model is based on 2011 economic data.

http://implan.com/

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In general, the economic impacts consist of three components: direct, indirect and induced

effects. Each component illustrates how money moves through the regional economy by re-

spending, known as the multiplier effect.

• Direct effect. The value of the output (spending on goods and services such as supplies,

equipment and labor) from the construction and operation of the trail and related

facilities in the local economy represents direct spending.

• Indirect effect. The money used by the trail and contractors building amenities to

purchase goods and services is re-spent elsewhere in the economy as indirect

spending. For example, a local business that sold supplies to build the fences and

barriers would use the money collected in that sale to pay employee wages.

• Induced effect. Households receive income from employment as a result of direct and

indirect spending. Induced spending represents this income being spent in the local

economy. In the above example, employees will use wages to purchase household

goods, such as groceries, fuel and entertainment.

Construction Impact

Full Construction

Table 9 contains the economic impact results from the construction of the facility. In our three

full construction scenarios, depending on mileage the total construction is estimated to be

$204,038, $269,220 or $704,233. However, after assigning construction costs to IMPLAN

sectors, about $110,410 is expected to be spent locally and represents the direct spending

impact in scenario 1 while scenario 2 and 3 generate $172,484 and $586,760 respectively.

These direct spending estimates are expected to generate a little over an additional $35,000,

$54,000 and $186,000 in indirect and induced spending in the region. Thus, construction yields

a one-time total impact of $145,529, $227,348 and $773,398 in economic activity or output.

Additionally, construction is estimated to support one, two or seven jobs depending on the

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mileage selected. As shown in Table 10, economic impact results from scenarios with

construction and equipment assistance are identical, which shows that the purchase of trail

equipment and vehicles is not retained locally.

Table 9: Estimated Construction Impacts (Full Construction)

Scenario 1

Economic Impacts Employment Labor

Income

Output

Direct Effect 1.0 $49,933 $110,410

Indirect Effect 0.1 $4,254 $13,554

Induced Effect 0.2 $5,621 $21,565

Total 1.3 $59,809 $145,529

Scenario 2


Income

Output

Direct Effect 1.6 $78,006 $172,484


Induced Effect 0.3 $8,782 $33,690

Total 2.1 $93,434 $227,348

Scenario 3


Income

Output

Direct Effect 5.5 $265,363 $586,760


Induced Effect 1.0 $29,874 $114,606

Total 7.0 $317,847 $773,398

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Table 10: Estimated Construction Impacts (Construction/Equipment Assistance)

Scenario 1


Income

Output

Direct Effect 1.0 $49,933 $110,410


Induced Effect 0.2 $5,621 $21,565

Total 1.3 $59,809 $145,529

Scenario 2


Income

Output

Direct Effect 1.6 $78,006 $172,484


Induced Effect 0.3 $8,782 $33,690

Total 2.1 $93,434 $227,348

Scenario 3


Income

Output

Direct Effect 5.5 $265,363 $586,760


Induced Effect 1.0 $29,874 $114,606

Total 7.0 $317,847 $773,398

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Operations Impact

Tables 11 and 12 contain the one-year operational impact of the facility, based on estimated

operational expenditures. As noted previously, full operation of the CATV trail system would

incur $899,500 in operating expenses. Operating expenses with assistance were estimated to

be $651,951. One year of operational spending (full operations) generates an estimated

$279,432 which is retained within the region supports and four direct jobs. All scenarios with

assistance retain within an estimated $245,034 within the region and support four direct jobs.

In both scenarios, we estimate total annual impacts of $411,832 or $367,728 respectively.

Table 11: Estimated One Year Operations Impacts (Full Operations)

All Scenarios


Income

Output

Direct Effect 4.0 $185,250 $279,432


Induced Effect 0.8 $26,011 $99,621

Total 5.1 $220,350 $411,832

Table 12: Estimated One Year Operations Impacts (Operations Assistance)

All Scenarios


Income

Output

Direct Effect 4.0 $185,250 $245,034


Induced Effect 0.8 $24,334 $93,189

Total 5.0 $217,607 $367,728

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Visitor Spending

Visitor spending impacts result from the locally retained expenditures made by out-of-state

visitors to the region that occur outside the trail facility.8 Approximately 47 percent of the

riders are assumed to be out-of-state and off-site spending categories considered were

accommodations, prepared foods, retail shopping, entertainment and fuel. Table 13 contains

the total estimated impacts for all scenarios.

In total, $294,173 of the spending constitutes the direct effect spending and represents the

money spent in the local economy. This out-of-state visitor spending generates an estimated

total impact of almost $376,560. In addition, out-of-state visitor spending is estimated to

generate $104,473 in labor income within the study area.

Table 13: Estimated One Year Visitor Spending Impacts

All Scenarios


Income

Output

Direct Effect 3.7 $80,795 $294,173


Induced Effect 0.3 $9,781 $37,461

Total 4.4 $104,473 $376,560

Total Estimated One-Year Impacts

When combining construction, operations and visitor spending, the total estimated impact to

the region is largely dependent on trail mileage and construction and operating structure. Full

construction of the trail system generates approximately $933,921 in scenario 1, $1.0 million in

8 Spending habits of out-of-state riders only are used in the IMPLAN© model, as monies spent by individuals who live in the state would not be considered new spending but rather a reallocation of spending already occurring.

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scenario 2 and $1.5 million in scenario 3. Table 14 contains the total estimated impacts from

one-year of operations.

Table 14: Total One Year Impacts (Full Construction)

Scenario 1


Income

Output

Direct Effect 8.7 $315,978 $684,015


Induced Effect 1.3 $41,413 $158,647

Total 10.8 $384,632 $933,921

Scenario 2


Income

Output

Direct Effect 9.3 $344,051 $746,089


Induced Effect 1.4 $44,574 $170,772

Total 11.6 $418,257 $1,015,740

Scenario 3


Income

Output

Direct Effect 13.2 $531,408 $1,160,365

Indirect Effect 1.3 $45,596 $149,737

Induced Effect 2.1 $65,666 $251,688

Total 16.5 $642,670 $1,561,790

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Assisted construction and operations of the trail system generates $889,817 in scenario 1,

$971,637 in scenario 2 and $1.5 million in scenario 3. Table 15 contains the total estimated

impacts from one-year of operations.

Table 15: Total One Year Impacts (Construction/Equipment Assistance)

Scenario 1


Income

Output

Direct Effect 8.7 $315,978 $649,617


Induced Effect 1.3 $39,736 $152,215

Total 10.7 $381,889 $889,817

Scenario 2


Income

Output

Direct Effect 9.3 $344,051 $711,691


Induced Effect 1.4 $42,897 $164,340

Total 11.5 $415,514 $971,637

Scenario 3


Income

Output

Direct Effect 13.2 $531,408 $1,125,967

Indirect Effect 1.2 $44,530 $146,463

Induced Effect 2.1 $63,989 $245,256

Total 16.4 $639,927 $1,517,686

29

Financial Feasibility and Sustainability

With only trail permit revenue and no additional grants for funding, full construction and

operations of each potential trail route is projected to lose money in the first year of

operations. The shortest potential route (scenario 1), is estimated to lose approximately

$958,193 while the additional mileage calculated in the longer routes (scenario 2 and 3)

increase the loss to $1 million and almost $1.5 million respectively.

30

Figure 4: Year-One Pro Forma Income Statement (Full Construction/Operations)

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 338.01 Miles 59.38 Miles 202 Miles

RevenuesTrail Permits Sold 145,345$ 145,345$ 145,345$

Total Revenue 145,345$ 145,345$ 145,345$

Variable ExpensesAdvertising/Promotion 26,500$ 26,500$ 26,500$ User Maps 43,620 43,620 43,620 Maintenance Expense 34,398 34,398 34,398 Travel, Training, Memberships 100,000 100,000 100,000 Service Charges 3,871 3,871 3,871

Total Variable Expenses 208,389$ 208,389$ 208,389$

Fixed ExpensesPre-Construction Costs

Contract Trail Construction and Technical Assistance 21,272$ 33,231$ 113,047$ Trailhead and Connector Construction Assistance 17,518 27,367 93,098

Construction CostsSingle-track Trail Construction 20,855 32,580 110,831

Trailbed Preparation 16,684 26,064 88,665 Office Rental 129,750 129,750 129,750 Utilities 32,100 32,100 32,100 Furniture/Tools/Equipment 130,860 130,860 130,860 Trail Construction Tractor 73,892 73,892 73,892 Field Equipment 14,210 14,210 14,210 Trucks/Trailers 156,310 156,310 156,310 Motorcycles/ATVs 56,840 56,840 56,840 Signs 34,081 53,242 181,120 Barriers and Gates 5,527 8,634 29,371 Employee Compensation

Director/Manager 82,630 82,630 82,630 Marketing 47,110 47,110 47,110

Accountant/Payroll 32,280 32,280 32,280 Administrative Assistant 23,230 23,230 23,230

Total Fixed Expenses 895,149$ 960,330$ 1,395,344$

Total Operating Expenses 1,103,538$ 1,168,719$ 1,603,733$

Net Profit (Loss) (958,193)$ (1,023,374)$ (1,458,388)$

Full Construction

31

As shown in Figure 5, even with partial construction and operation assistance the potential

CATV trail system is estimated to lose money in the first year of operation. The shortest

potential route (scenario 1), is estimated to lose approximately $622,543 while the additional

mileage calculated in the longer routes (scenario 2 and 3) increase the loss to $687,724 and

$1.1 million respectively.

Figure 5: Year-One Pro Forma Income Statement (Construction/Operation Assistance)

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 338.01 Miles 59.38 Miles 202 Miles

RevenuesTrail Permits Sold 145,345$ 145,345$ 145,345$

Total Revenue 145,345$ 145,345$ 145,345$

Variable ExpensesAdvertising/Promotion 26,500$ 26,500$ 26,500$ User Maps 43,620 43,620 43,620 Travel, Training, Memberships 100,000 100,000 100,000 Service Charges 3,871 3,871 3,871

Total Variable Expenses 173,991$ 173,991$ 173,991$


Contract Trail Construction and Technical Assistance 21,272$ 33,231$ 113,047$ Trailhead and Connector Construction Assistance 17,518 27,367 93,098

Construction CostsSingle-track Trail Construction 20,855 32,580 110,831

Trailbed Preparation 16,684 26,064 88,665 Office Rental 129,750 129,750 129,750 Utilities 32,100 32,100 32,100 Furniture/Tools/Equipment 130,860 130,860 130,860 Signs 34,081 53,242 181,120 Barriers and Gates 5,527 8,634 29,371 Employee Compensation

Director/Manager 82,630 82,630 82,630 Marketing 47,110 47,110 47,110

Accountant/Payroll 32,280 32,280 32,280 Administrative Assistant 23,230 23,230 23,230

Total Fixed Expenses 593,897$ 659,078$ 1,094,092$

Total Operating Expenses 767,888$ 833,069$ 1,268,083$

Net Profit (Loss) (622,543)$ (687,724)$ (1,122,738)$

Trail Construction and Equipment Assistance

32

As previously noted, we anticipate a 53 percent and 47 percent split between in-state and out-

of-state riders and project revenues to increase from years 1 to 5. Scenario 2 presents the more

feasible option of 59.38 contiguous miles and using our construction and operations estimates

we see that it is possible for the CATV trail system to begin profiting in year 4 ($167,751) and

continue in year 5 ($272,139). This estimate assumes full construction and operations of the

trail, no trail construction after year 1 and an equal share of equipment, furniture, tools and

trail vehicles purchased in all years.

33

Figure 6: Scenario 2 Five-Year Projected Pro Forma Income Statement (Full Construction)

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5RevenuesTrail Permits Sold 145,345$ 363,305$ 524,009$ 809,805$ 914,193$

Total Revenue 145,345$ 363,305$ 524,009$ 809,805$ 914,193$

Variable ExpensesAdvertising/Promotion 26,500$ 26,500$ 26,500$ 26,500$ 26,500$ User Maps 43,620 43,620 43,620 43,620 43,620 Maintenance Expense 34,398 34,398 34,398 34,398 34,398 Travel, Training, Memberships 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 Service Charges 3,871 3,871 3,871 3,871 3,871

Total Variable Expenses 208,389$ 208,389$ 208,389$ 208,389$ 208,389$


Contract Trail Construction and Technical Assistance 33,231$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Trailhead and Connector Construction Assistance 27,367 - - - -

Construction CostsSingle-track Trail Construction 32,580 - - - -

Trailbed Preparation 26,064 - - - - Office Rental 129,750 129,750 129,750 129,750 129,750 Utilities 32,100 32,100 32,100 32,100 32,100 Furniture/Tools/Equipment 26,172 26,172 26,172 26,172 26,172 Trail Construction Tractor 3,553 3,553 3,553 3,553 3,553 Field Equipment 14,210 14,210 14,210 14,210 14,210 Trucks/Trailers 31,262 31,262 31,262 31,262 31,262 Motorcycles/ATVs 11,368 11,368 11,368 11,368 11,368 Signs 53,242 - - - - Barriers and Gates 8,634 - - - - Employee Compensation

Director/Manager 82,630 82,630 82,630 82,630 82,630 Marketing 47,110 47,110 47,110 47,110 47,110

Accountant/Payroll 32,280 32,280 32,280 32,280 32,280 Administrative Assistant 23,230 23,230 23,230 23,230 23,230

Total Fixed Expenses 614,783$ 433,665$ 433,665$ 433,665$ 433,665$

Total Operating Expenses 823,172$ 642,054$ 642,054$ 642,054$ 642,054$

Net Profit (Loss) (677,827)$ (278,748)$ (118,044)$ 167,751$ 272,139$

Full ConstructionScenario 2 (59.38 Miles)

34

Assuming construction and equipment assistance, no trail construction after year 1 and an

equal share of equipment, furniture, tools and trail vehicles purchased in all years. We have

once again projected a profit in years 4 and 5, $262,542 and $366,930 respectively.

Figure 7: Scenario 2 Five-Year Projected Pro Forma Income Statement (Construction/Operation

Assistance)

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5RevenuesTrail Permits Sold 145,345$ 363,305$ 524,009$ 809,805$ 914,193$

Total Revenue 145,345$ 363,305$ 524,009$ 809,805$ 914,193$

Variable ExpensesAdvertising/Promotion 26,500$ 26,500$ 26,500$ 26,500$ 26,500$ User Maps 43,620 43,620 43,620 43,620 43,620 Travel, Training, Memberships 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 Service Charges 3,871 3,871 3,871 3,871 3,871

Total Variable Expenses 173,991$ 173,991$ 173,991$ 173,991$ 173,991$


Contract Trail Construction and Technical Assistance 33,231$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Trailhead and Connector Construction Assistance 27,367 - - - -

Construction CostsSingle-track Trail Construction 32,580 - - - -

Trailbed Preparation 26,064 - - - - Office Rental 129,750 129,750 129,750 129,750 129,750 Utilities 32,100 32,100 32,100 32,100 32,100 Furniture/Tools/Equipment 26,172 26,172 26,172 26,172 26,172 Signs 53,242 - - - - Barriers and Gates 8,634 - - - - Employee Compensation

Director/Manager 82,630 82,630 82,630 82,630 82,630 Marketing 47,110 47,110 47,110 47,110 47,110

Accountant/Payroll 32,280 32,280 32,280 32,280 32,280 Administrative Assistant 23,230 23,230 23,230 23,230 23,230

Total Fixed Expenses 554,390$ 373,272$ 373,272$ 373,272$ 373,272$

Total Operating Expenses 728,381$ 547,263$ 547,263$ 547,263$ 547,263$

Net Profit (Loss) (583,036)$ (183,958)$ (23,254)$ 262,542$ 366,930$

Trail Construction and Equipment AssistanceScenario 2 (59.38 Miles)

35

Public participation

Another key component of a conceptual master plan includes the involvement the public to the

greatest extent possible, both as a means of providing information, but also gathering input

into the expectations and desires of potential stakeholders and users. This can be

accomplished through a variety of methods, but ideally considers those methods which balance

access to the input process with the ability to gather necessary information efficiently and

economically. Potential methods for gathering input from the public include the development

of steering committees which include public representation, public meeting and focus groups,

and the use of interviews, questionnaires and survey methods.

In an effort to both inform the public and gather data pertinent to the initial development and

measurement of feasibility, the RTI engaged member constituencies in the study area counties,

various county commissions, legislative committees and chambers of commerce. Presentations

and information gathering sessions were scheduled in conjunction with existing meetings and

events whenever possible to maximize attendance and minimize scheduling conflicts. RTI

created and sent a public interest survey as well as comment sheets at the public workshop to

gauge public reaction to the possibility of a trail system coming to their area. An approximate

timeline of events (including those explicitly designed to gather public feedback) is provided in

Table 15.

36

Table 15. Overview of Public and Stakeholder Engagement

Date Location Group Primary Focus January 26, 2015 Richwood Nicholas County citizens Data gathering April 27, 2015 Richwood Nicholas County citizens Data gathering June 7, 2015 Charleston Senate Natural Resources

Committee Study update

June 18, 2015 Beckley New River Gorge Regional Development Authority (NGRDA)

Stakeholder engagement

June 23, 2015 Summersville NGRDA, Governor Tomblin’s staff and Nicholas County Commission


July 15, 2015 Conference call Little Kanawha Area Development Data gathering July 20, 2015 Webster

Springs/Richwood Webster County EDA, Nicholas County Extension Agent, Richwood Chamber of Commerce


August 5, 2015 Webster Springs Webster County Commission Study update August 10, 2015 Grantsville Calhoun County Commission Study update October 8, 2015 WebEx meeting New River Gorge Regional

Development Authority Stakeholder engagement

October 13, 2015 Grantsville Calhoun County Commission Study update October 16, 2015 Sutton Braxton County Commission Study update October 20, 2015 Weston Lewis County EDA October 26, 2015 Buckhannon Lewis County Commission and

Region 7 Planning and Development Council


October 29, 2015 Summersville Region 4 Planning and Development Council


November 4, 2015

Valley Fork Clay County EDA Data gathering

November 12, 2015

Richwood CATV public meeting Public presentation

November 25, 2015

Clay Clay County Commission Study update

February 15, 2015

Conference call Braxton County CVB Data gathering

37

As part of all public presentation and data gathering events, attendees were encouraged to

provide written comments and complete survey responses related to the potential trail system

development. Overall comments were limited but focused on the positive economic outcomes

for the region arising from additional tourism and related activities and a general desire to see

additional opportunities in the wake of losses from coal mining activity.

The major public meeting was held in Richwood, WV on Thursday November 12th at Richwood

City Hall. Primary stakeholders were invited to a meeting at 6:00pm where RTI presented a

summary of the goals of the Feasibility Study, as well as summary results from the 2015

Economic Impact Analysis for Hatfield McCoy Recreation Authority. A Q&A session along with

time for public comments were fielded relating to various protocols.

A public meeting for citizens was held at 7:00pm. RTI gave a brief overview of the feasibility

study and fielded questions that focused mostly on goals, scope, and the process. Public

comments were focused on the following:

• The economic impact an ATV system would bring to the area • The length of time before the authority would be established and trails would be built • Who would be monetarily providing support for the trail system • The Department of Natural Resources’ role with the trail system • Small business growth/entrepreneurship training • Work force training

Concluding Recommendations

The proposed central West Virginia ATV (CATV) trail system potentially offers an economic

development opportunity in central West Virginia that builds upon existing regional assets and

strong recreational demand for ATV trails. The trail system has the potential to highlight the

natural beauty that central West Virginia has to offer while providing connections to small West

Virginia towns that are traditionally bypassed due to the interstate system. The information

presented in this report is meant to provide a framework for action by the West Virginia

38

Legislature, regional economic development authorities, local government, and other agencies

or groups who wish to further pursue the establishment of a CATV trail system.

As identified in this phase of exploration the development of a CATV trail system, with an initial

build of approximately 59 miles, potentially results in positive economic impacts for the region.

Direct expenditures related to construction, operations and visitor spending produce a direct

effect of roughly $746,000 that in turn produce a total regional effect of just over $1 million (a

multiplier effect of roughly 1.36). Costs associated with the construction and operations of the

system are expected to exceed revenues in the initial year of operations, but modest growth in

ridership (and corresponding revenues from the sale of permits) can lead to positive cash flow

within a four-year time horizon. These estimates assume no contribution from state or federal

sources, the inclusion of which could hasten the time frame for a break-even scenario.

To move forward however, several components need to occur. Recommendations for next

steps, in no particular order, include but are not necessarily limited to:

• Establishing the provision of limited liability for private landholders to encourage the necessary access to suitable parcels of land to develop for trail activities

• Prospective agreements with major land holders within the region (assuming limited liability is provided via legislative action)

• Establishing a regional authority for oversight, subject to State Code and recommendations set forth from actions performed by the West Virginia Legislative Auditor’s office. Specifically the duties related to the new authority should include:

o Membership criteria o Rights and responsibilities o Purchasing regulations o Auditing provisions

• Exploration of potential cooperative agreements with a contractual service provider, such as the Hatfield-McCoy Regional Recreation Authority, for activities including:

o Design o Construction and maintenance activities o Construction equipment leasing o Operations

39

o Contracting and purchasing • Selection of regional office location(s). Lewis County, WV is a potential candidate

location with proximity to the I-79 corridor and significant amenities, as well as support from the Lewis County Convention and Visitor’s Bureau (CVB)

• Identification of appropriate sources of grant funding and preparation of applications • Branding and marketing relating specifically to the region and the CATV • Continued outreach within the region and with stakeholders

While sample trail alignments and tracts of suitable size were identified as part of this analysis,

detailed design and trail layouts will be required to assess specific topographic challenges or

additional costs that could be incurred during trail system development.

40

Appendix A – Copy of HCR 118 Text

41

HOUSE CONCURRENT RESOLUTION NO. 118

(By Delegates Boggs, Smith, Walker, Staggers, Perry, Pino, Talbott and Sigler)

Requesting the Joint Committee on Government and Finance to conduct a feasibility study for a

proposed multi-county ATV trail system in Central West Virginia.

WHEREAS, The study area is to include the seven central West Virginia counties of Braxton, Clay,

Gilmer, Lewis, Calhoun, Nicholas and Webster; and

WHEREAS, These counties are very similar to the Hatfield-McCoy region in that their economic

base has dwindled substantially, resulting in significant economic hardship, due to the loss of

natural resource-based industry. Each area can benefit greatly from the successful introduction

of well-managed recreational based tourism. Each area has vast networks of residual trail

systems from natural resource extraction activities. Each region is located within a day’s drive

of large population centers and in areas where there is a relative shortage of motorized trail-

related opportunities; and

WHEREAS, This provides a great opportunity for the successful development and expansion of

motorized-use trails. These regions also include large areas of privately-owned land where well-

managed trail facilities could exist without hurting the land owners interests; therefore, be it

Resolved by the Legislature of West Virginia:

That the Joint Committee on Government and Finance is hereby requested to conduct a

feasibility study for a proposed multi-county ATV trail system in Central West Virginia; and, be it

Further Resolved, That the Joint Committee on Government and Finance shall work with the

Rahall Appalachian Transportation Institute as they were instrumental in researching and

developing the Hatfield-McCoy Regional Recreation Authority; and, be it

42

Further Resolved, That the Joint Committee on Government and Finance report to the regular

session of the Legislature, 2012, on its findings, conclusions and recommendations, together

with drafts of any legislation necessary to effectuate its recommendations; and, be it

Further Resolved, That any costs associated with any work conducted by the Rahall Appalachian

Transportation Institute and any other expenses necessary to conduct this study, to prepare a

report and to draft necessary legislation be paid from legislative appropriations to the Joint

Committee on Government and Finance.

43

Appendix B – Demographic Analysis

44

The Central ATV (CATV) study region consists of Braxton, Calhoun, Clay, Gilmer, Lewis, Nicholas

and Webster Counties and is characterized by largely rural and densely populated areas.

Commonly referred to as the “Mountain Lakes” region, this area is serviced and connected by

Interstate 79 and U.S. Route 19. Throughout the remainder of this report the words “region” or

“study area” will refer to the entire seven county area unless otherwise noted as West Virginia.

Population

Figure B1 and Table B1 show changes in the population in the proposed system counties. While

paralleling the State’s population changes until the mid-2000s, the study area counties have

steadily lost population while the state has shown only modest growth. The population of West

Virginia residents aged 65 or older is projected to increase while the younger age groups are

decreasing. Particularly in 25-44 age group as the population is expected to decline from

approximately 445, 436 in 2015 to 427,753 in 2030 (Table B2).

Figure B1 - Population 2004 to 2014

Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

1,700,000

1,750,000

1,800,000

1,850,000

1,900,000

1,950,000

2,000,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

HUN

DRED

S

MIL

LIO

NS

WV Study Area

45

Table B1 – Population, 2004 - 2014

Year West

Virginia

Study Area

2004 1,816,438 92,696

2005 1,820,492 92,741

2006 1,827,912 92,573

2007 1,834,052 92,610

2008 1,840,310 92,874

2009 1,847,775 92,839

2010 1,854,176 92,005

2011 1,854,982 92,000

2012 1,856,313 91,799

2013 1,853,595 91,153

2014 1,850,326 90,610


As shown in Table B3, West Virginia population is predicted to decrease slightly (0.09 percent)

between the years 2015 and 2020, continuing until 2030. The total projected loss for the State

is 1.4 percent. Similarly, counties in the study area are also expected to see population

decrease; however the magnitudes are in excess of the statewide average for all years. The

largest decreases are projected for Webster, Lewis and Braxton, losing 12.71 percent, 8.81

percent and 8.04 percent respectively from 2015 through 2030 (Table B3). This population loss

accelerates over the period, with greater percentage losses occurring for every county over

time.

46

Table B2 – West Virginia Population Projections by Age

Age 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-19 431,136 427,041 422,750 418,862

20-24 121,466 116,868 117,648 117,791

25-44 445,436 438,242 431,796 427,753

45-64 527,404 501,925 471,218 448,428

65+ 334,071 373,719 406,728 420,701

Source: West Virginia University Bureau of Business and Economic Research

Table B3 – Population Projections by Study Area County (2015 – 2030)

County 2015-2020

Decrease

2020-2025

Decrease

2025-2030

Decrease

Total

Decrease

(2015-2030)

Braxton -1.85% -2.69% -3.71% -8.04%

Calhoun -1.33% -1.59% -1.96% -4.80%

Clay -2.00% -2.08% -2.35% -6.29%

Gilmer -0.42% -0.94% -2.28% -3.61%

Lewis -2.15% -3.04% -3.88% -8.81%

Nicholas -1.13% -2.22% -3.24% -6.45%

Webster -3.43% -4.55% -5.31% -12.71%

West Virginia -0.09% -0.41% -0.90% -1.40%

Source: West Virginia University Bureau of Business and Economic Research

Per Capita Income

Per capita incomes in the region are well below the national and State average, and the gap has

widened over time. As Figure B2 and Table B4 show, per capita income in 1970 for West

Virginia and the Central ATV study region were almost identical. In 1970, per capita in the study

47

area was $2,314, compared to $3,148 in the State and $4,196 nationally (55 percent and 74

percent respectively). While per capita income has increased since that time, the United States

has outpaced both West Virginia and the study area, and the study area falls well short of the

State’s per capita income. In 2014 per capita income in the United States had grown to $46,049.

West Virginia increased to $36,132 (82 percent of the US) and to $29,527 in our study area (64

percent of the US).

Figure B2 - Per Capita Income 2004 - 2014

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

$ (H

UN

DRED

S)

WV Study Area US

48

Table B4 – Per Capita Income, 2004 - 2014

Year United

States

West

Virginia

Study Area

2004 $34,316 $25,498 $19,569

2005 $35,904 $26,360 $20,282

2006 $38,144 $28,319 $21,761

2007 $39,821 $29,316 $22,921

2008 $41,082 $31,397 $24,626

2009 $39,376 $31,429 $24,892

2010 $40,277 $32,104 $25,536

2011 $42,453 $34,211 $27,663

2012 $44,266 $35,374 $28,786

2013 $44,438 $35,163 $28,539

2014 $46,049 $36,132 $29,527

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Isolation

One measure of geographic and economic isolation is rurality, or the share of population

considered “Rural”9 (Figure B3). West Virginia continues to be one of the most rural states in

our nation with 51.3 percent living outside of urban areas, and only 19.3 percent of the US

population living in the same areas. Within the study area, 87.1 percent of the population is

considered rural. Due to the proximity to heavily populated and traversed areas rural areas are

9 The Census Bureau’s classification of “rural” consists of all territory, population, and housing units located outside of Urbanized Areas and Urban Clusters. Please see The U.S. Census Bureau for further discussion of the definition at http://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/urban-rural-2010.html

http://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/urban-rural-2010.html

49

idea for trails. However some improvements to the area including but not limited to, enhanced

transportation networks would be needed for access and to reduce the effects of isolation.

Figure B3 – Rural Population Percentage, 2010

Source: United States Census Bureau

Education

A significant factor in determining the economic potential of a region is its educational

attainment. Within West Virginia, 84.4 percent of the population aged 25 years possess a high

school diploma or beyond, which is not too far off from the national figure. A much larger

percentage (23.30 percent) lacks even a high school education in the study area (Figure B4 and

Table B5). We see that the study area remains substantially behind the educational attainment

of the United States.

19.3%

51.3%

87.1%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

100.0%

United States West Virginia Study Area

50

Figure B4 – Population 25 Aged Years with a High School Diploma or Beyond, 2014


Table B5 – Population 25 Aged Years with a High School Diploma or Beyond, 2010

County Percent of Population (25+ years) with

High School Diploma or Beyond

Braxton 79.5%

Calhoun 75.8%

Clay 70.5%

Gilmer 77.5%

Lewis 85.5%

Nicholas 83.8%

Webster 71.7%

West Virginia 84.4%

United States 86.3%


86.3% 84.4%77.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

United States WV Study Area

51

Poverty

The data shows the cumulative effect of these indicators is much higher in the study area than

in the State. Figure B5 and Table B6 indicate that the poverty rate in 2010 was 18.1 percent

(which exceeds the national rate of 15.6 in 2014) and the rate increases to 23 percent for the

area studied for the trail system. Reducing the poverty rate is a key objective of the State’s

economic development efforts and the proposed trail system is a positive factor in that process.

Figure B5 – Population Living Below Poverty, 2014


15.6%

18.1%

23.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

United States WV Study Area

52

Table B6 - Percent of Population living below poverty, 2010 data

County Percent of

Population Below

Poverty

Braxton 21.3%

Calhoun 22.9%

Clay 25.5%

Gilmer 30.0%

Lewis 19.7%

Nicholas 19.3%

Webster 22.6%

West Virginia 18.1%


Wage and Salary Employment

In 2014, labor force participation was slightly over 50 percent (54.2 percent), which is below the

national rate of 63.5 percent. However, with the exception of Lewis and Nicholas labor force

participation in the study area is below 50 percent (Table B7). Almost half of the study area

population is not currently considered part of the labor force (Table B8).

53

Table B7 - Labor Force Participation, 2014

County Labor Force

Participation

Braxton 49.8%

Calhoun 49.5%

Clay 46.2%

Gilmer 42.6%

Lewis 51.5%

Nicholas 50.9%

Webster 48.1%

West Virginia 54.2%

United States 63.5%

Table B8 – Not In Labor Force, 2014

County Not In Labor Force

Braxton 50.2%

Calhoun 50.5%

Clay 53.8%

Gilmer 57.4%

Lewis 48.4%

Nicholas 49.0%

Webster 51.9%

West Virginia 45.7%

United States 36.1%

54

The need for job generation in the central ATV study area is demonstrated in Figures B6 and B7

and Table B9. Despite the spike in the early to mid-2000s employment in the study continues to

decline. Wage and salary employment has almost fallen to early 2000 levels and an increase in

jobs in the study area would certainly cause this to rise. In contrast to the United States, wage

and salary employment in the study area began a sharp decline in 2011. Although the decreases

began to level out in 2013, national wage and salary employment is rising while the study area

is still falling (Figure B6).

Figure B6 – Wage and Salary Employment 2004 - 2014


$20,000

$22,000

$24,000

$26,000

$28,000

$30,000

$32,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

$800,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

$ (H

UN

DRED

S)

$ (T

HOU

SAN

DS)

WV Study Area

55

Figure B7 – Study Area Percent of Total Wage and Salary Employment 2004 - 2014


Table B9 – Wage and Salary Employment 2004 - 2014

Year West

Virginia

Study

Area

% of West

Virginia Totals

2004 $729,955 $28,173 3.86%

2005 $736,345 $28,405 3.86%

2006 $745,964 $28,824 3.86%

2007 $750,722 $29,027 3.87%

2008 $754,679 $29,364 3.89%

2009 $736,679 $28,829 3.91%

2010 $734,594 $28,976 3.94%

2011 $742,909 $29,432 3.96%

2012 $751,541 $29,541 3.93%

2013 $743,793 $28,486 3.83%

2014 $741,131 $28,418 3.83%


3.00%

3.20%

3.40%

3.60%

3.80%

4.00%

4.20%

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

$800,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

$ (H

UN

DRED

S)

WV Percent of WV Total Wage & Salary Employment

56

Tables B10 and B11 show employment and average earnings by industry in the study area.

Industries vital to a proposed trail system such as retail trade and accommodation and food

services provide substantial employment, making up 14.1 percent and 8.04 percent of the total

jobs in the study area (Table B10). However, as shown in Table B11, neither industry provide

higher paying jobs in the area.

Table B10 - Study Area Employment, 2015

NAICS Industry 2015

Jobs

% of

Total

Jobs

90 Government 6,280 24.7%

62 Health Care and Social Assistance 3,919 15.4%

44 Retail Trade 3,586 14.1%

21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and

Gas Extraction

2,278 8.96%

72 Accommodation and Food

Services

2,044 8.04%

31 Manufacturing 1,672 6.58%

23 Construction 1,183 4.65%

48 Transportation and Warehousing 828 3.26%

81 Other Services (except Public

Administration)

801 3.15%

56 Administration and Support and

Waste Management and

Remediation Services

544 2.14%

Source: EMSI

57

Table B11 - Study Area Average Earnings by Industry, 2015

NAICS Industry Average Earnings (2015)

22 Utilities $105,544

55 Management of Companies and

Enterprises

$103,405

21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and

Gas Extraction

$91,755

48 Transportation and Warehousing $66,160

53 Real Estate and Rental and

Leasing

$65,588

23 Construction $61,405

51 Information $58,098

54 Professional, Scientific, and

Technical Services

$54,497

31 Manufacturing $54,297

42 Wholesale Trade $54,025

Source: EMSI

Location Quotient

Table B12 shows location quotients (LQ), which illustrate employment concentration, for the

study area and in West Virginia. An LQ of 1 indicates that the industry employment

concentration within the area is the same as the national distribution. LQs greater than one

indicate proportionally greater industry representation. With the exception of Braxton, the

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction industry dominates the region which is typical in

the State, and as shown in Table B11, these jobs provide a substantial portion the average

earnings in the study area.

58

Table B12 – Study Area Location Quotients

County Industry Location Quotient

Braxton Utilities 2.53

Accommodation and Food

Services

1.64

Management of Companies

and Enterprises

1.58

Calhoun Mining, Quarrying, and Oil

and Gas Extraction

35.81

Crop and Animal Production 3.19

Health Care and Social

Assistance

2.07

Clay Mining, Quarrying, and Oil

and Gas Extraction

63.27

Government 1.90


Assistance

1.42

Gilmer Mining, Quarrying, and Oil

and Gas Extraction

23.88

Government 2.18

Construction 1.80

Lewis Mining, Quarrying, and Oil

and Gas Extraction

15.26

Utilities 2.44

Government 1.62

59

Nicholas Mining, Quarrying, and Oil

and Gas Extraction

18.39

Retail Trade 1.53

Transportation and

Warehousing

1.50

Webster Mining, Quarrying, and Oil

and Gas Extraction

27.88

Crop and Animal Production 5.00

Government 1.85

West Virginia Mining, Quarrying, and Oil

and Gas Extraction

7.76

Utilities 2.16


Assistance

1.36

Source: EMSI

60

Appendix C – Study Area Map

This product is for informational purposes and may not have been prepared for, or be suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes.Users of this information should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the usability of the information. Reproduction, copying, distribution, sale, or lease of this map without the written permission of the Rahall Appalachian Transportation Institute is prohibited.

www.njrati.org

0 20Miles µ

LegendAcreage

0.00 - 100.00100.01 - 1000.001000.01 - 2000.002000.01 - 4999.995000.00 - 62248.52No Data

Study Area Parcel Analysis

Source:

61

Appendix D – Potential Trail Alignment


www.njrati.org

Copyright:© 2013 National Geographic Society, i-cubed0 20

Miles µProposed Trail

Alternative 1Alternative 2Alternative 3

Proposed Traill Analysis

Source:

62

Appendix E – County-level Parcel Maps


www.njrati.org

0 10Miles µ

LegendAcreage

0.02 - 100.00100.01 - 1000.001000.01 - 2000.002000.01 - 4999.995000.00 - 13255.33No Data

Braxton County Parcel Analysis

Source:


www.njrati.org

0 10Miles µ

LegendAcreage

0.01 - 100.00100.01 - 1000.001000.01 - 2000.002000.01 - 4999.995000.00 - 19337.33No Data

Clay County Parcel Analysis

Source:


www.njrati.org

0 10Miles µ

LegendAcreage

0.00 - 100.00100.01 - 1000.001000.01 - 2000.002000.01 - 4999.995000.00 - 7954.86

Gilmer County Parcel Analysis

Source:


www.njrati.org

0 10Miles µ

LegendAcreage

0.01 - 100.00100.01 - 500.00500.01 - 1161.39No Data

Lewis County Parcel Analysis

Source:


www.njrati.org

0 10Miles µ

LegendAcreage

0.00 - 100.00100.01 - 1000.001000.01 - 2000.002000.01 - 4999.995000.00 - 20555.37No Data

Nicholas County Parcel Analysis

Source:


www.njrati.org

0 10Miles µ

LegendAcreage

0.00 - 100.00100.01 - 1000.001000.01 - 2000.002000.01 - 4999.995000.00 - 62248.52

Webster County Parcel Analysis

Source:

Feasibility Study for a Proposed Multi- County ATV Trail ...dev.njrati.org/.../CATV-Feasibility-Study-2-26-2016... · Feasibility Study for a Proposed Multi-County ATV Trail System

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