FastForward a high speed rail strategy for Britain

8/8/2019 FastForward a high speed rail strategy for Britain

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In Summe 8, Greengauge 21 o med a PublicInte e t G oup to develop a g eate unde tandingo w at ig - peed ail could do o B itain. T iunique Public Inte e t G oup b oug t toget e t ela ge t city council in England and Scotland, t e

egional development agencie , key ail indu t yo gani ation , pa enge t an po t aut o itieand ot e egional and t an po t agencie ac o

t e count y. T i epo t p e ent Greengauge 21 conclu ion om t e majo wo k p og amme undedby t e G oup in t e public inte e t: a ig - peed ail

t ategy o B itain.

www.g eengauge .net

,Greengauge 21

All ig t e e ved. T i epo t may be ep oducedin any o m by elect onic o ot e mec anical mean(including p otocopying, eco ding, o in o mation

to age and et ieval) p oviding a ull acknowledgementto t e publi e i given. T i document i available in anelect onic o mat om t e publi e .


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executive umma y

Across the nation, there is support or the creationo a high-speed rail network, linking together ourmajor cities. This report shows, or the frst time,

what a national high-speed rail network wouldlook like, what its value to the nation would be, andwhat it might cost.

T e epo t a been p epa ed by Greengauge 21 ,u ing t e evidence developed in a wo k p og amme

unded by a widely-d awn Public Inte e t G oup.W en t e wo k p og amme ta ted, Gove nment wad agging it eet on ig - peed ail. T i i no longe

t e ca e.Wit Gove nment at t e ta t o t i yea

e tabli ing it own company to plan ig - peed ail(HSR) between London and t e We t Midland , andpotentially beyond, ou wo k p ovide a longe te mplan o a national HSR netwo k wit in w ic a t

oute need to be con ide ed.HSR i needed to elp add e two undamental

c allenge acing t e count y: uppo ting anden ancing economic competitivene ac ot e nation, and imp oving t e envi onmental

u tainability o ou t an po t y tem .

The economic challenge

Ou national t an po t y tem a e lling up,even taking into account t e e ect o t e cu ent

ece ion, and t e e i a i k t at t e capacityc unc c eated will con t ain bu ine e ciency,p oductivity g owt and inve tment. Capacity ineeded to cate o long-te m economic g owt .

In t e la t o ty yea , g owt in bu ine activityand in population a been g eate t in t e wide

out ea t. El ew e e t e e i a continuing en e

o u t ation: development i welcome, but i lowto get e tabli ed w en eady acce to deci ion-make in London, to t e national gateway ai po tand to Eu ope via t e C annel Tunnel i o poo .

Wit t e t an o mational jou ney time andeliability o e ed by HSR, deci ion on bu ine

location and on w e e people would p e e to livewill c ange, allowing bette balanced and mo e

u tainable development ac o t e count y.

Typicalcurrent rail

journey time

Typical journeytime on high-speed rail

Journeytimesaving

London Edinbu g 4 4

London Gla gow 4 4

London Newca tle 4

London Leed

London Manc e te

London Bi ming am 4 4

London B i tol 4

London Ca di 4

Bi ming am Pa i 4

Manc e te Newca tle


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The carbon challenge

Along ide t e economic bene t , ig - peed ail

can elp to add e t e econd majo c allengeacing B itain, by p oviding an att active alte nativeto o t- aul aviation and long-di tance ca u e,t an po t mode t at depend on o il-ba ed uel .T i epo t ow ow, w en ope ational, a nationalHSR netwo k would educe ca bon emi ion byone million tonne a yea . It i t e g een option oou national t an po t y tem. It will complementlow-ca bon initiative in t an po t at a local level

and uppo t an evolution om t e p eviou ageo moto way building. It can act a a timuluto complementa y imp ovement in local publict an po t, a pa t o a joined up t ategy. T e e a eo cou e ot e envi onmental c allenge to add e ,not lea t in t e con t uction o new in a t uctu e,and t e e will need to be con ide ed ully in t emo e detailed tage o planning.

A vision or high-speed rail in Britain

Greengauge 21 p opo e a yea p og amme toc eate a national HSR netwo k w ic can t an o mt e t avel expe ience in B itain. It o e la ge- caletime aving and p ovide a new, ig -quality, upe -

eliable way to t avel in a ety, p oviding cu tomee vice t o t e t centu y. T i p ovide bene t

to bu ine , to tou i m, to t e wide public and tot e economy at la ge wo t bn, exceeding co tby a atio o ove : .

Inte national expe ience ow t at t e appealo ig - peed ail will be wide, not ju t o bu inet avel w ic continue to g ow even in t i

elect onic age but al o o individual , g oup andamilie t avelling to ee iend and elative , to getto unive ity, to po t and cultu al event o to go on

oliday. It will ee up pace on t e exi ting ailwayo mo e e vice to expand commute capacity and

to g ow eig t t a c on t e ail netwo k.T e e plan o a national HSR netwo k a e

de igned to ave b oad appeal. T e t ategy doenot ely on p emium a e . Station and e vice

would be de igned to o e acce o all. Greengauge21 and t e take olde we con ulted believe t atinve tment in t e exi ting netwo k ould not beneglected to pay o HSR. T e c allenge we a eadd e ing a e t e economy and climate c ange, nota na owe que tion o bette t an po t, owevede i able t at may be.

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Sections of route comprisingupgraded/new lines operatingat speeds of 200km/h+

H S - C T

HS-WW

H S - N W

H S - N E

H S - N W

H S - N E

HS-TP

New high-speed railwaysoperating at speeds of upto 320km/h

hsr netwo k


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T e national HSR netwo k comp i e two no t -out oute , one on eac ide o t e count y. Ita t ee key ea t-we t connection too, in cent al

Scotland, ac o t e Pennine and between Londonand B i tol/Sout Wale . T e e oute a e inte -connected wit one anot e , wit t e exi ting lineto t e C annel Tunnel, and wit new connectionat Heat ow Ai po t. T ey a e al o ully integ atedwit t e exi ting ail netwo k o t at ig - peed

e vice can be p ovided to all o t e majo citieac o B itain. A ull ange o netwo k cena iowa developed and app ai ed be o e t i p e e ed

t ategy wa identi ed.T i , km-long netwo k o ig - peed outewould ca y 78 million pa enge a yea . T e co to t e t national HSR line i e timated to be billion, including allowance o i k and contingency.

We ope t at t i piece o wo k, etting out ot e t time w at a national HSR netwo k willlook like, toget e wit t e ca e o unding it, willadd to Gove nment e olve to move o wa d toimplementation.

G u 21Public Interest Group

A ociation o No t Ea t Council

A ociation o T ain Ope ating Companie (ATOC) BAA plc Bi ming am City Council City o Edinbu g Council City o London Co po ation Engli Regional Development Agencie Gla gow City Council G eate Manc e te Pa enge T an po t Executive Netwo k Rail

Newca tle City Council T e No t e n Way Pa enge T an po t Executive G oup ( ep e enting

all ix PTE ) Railway Indu t y A ociation Sout Ea t o Scotland T an po t Pa tne ip

(SESt an) St at clyde Pa tne ip o T an po t

S e eld City Region T an po t o London

Associate members

C annel Tunnel Initiative Rail F eig t G oup

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% o people in B itainbelieve ig peed ail ie ential o ou utu e.

Eve y pent on aig peed ail netwo kwill p ovide . 0 o

economic beneft.


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content

1 int oduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 w y hsr i needed and w y it needed now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 w at will hsr o e t e t avelling public? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 hsr ca bon c edential and u tainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 w at would a national hsr netwo k look like? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 evidence on value o money . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

7 ow will it be unded? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 integ ating wit egional and city plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

9 implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

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Bot t e Japane e and t e F enc et out a long-te m plan o t ei hsrnetwo k a we did o ou moto way netwo k back in t e 1930 .


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1 int oduction

The G u 21Public Interest Group,established in 2008, represents a unique groupingo organisations that came together to develop ahigh-speed rail strategy or Britain.

T e p o pect o a ig - peed ail netwo k oB itain i a t emendou ly appealing and exciting one.But oweve att active t e vi ion, t e c allenge o developing uc a majo new t an po t in a t uctu ep og amme a e eno mou . Cla ity and con en u onw at t i ig - peed ail netwo k mig t look like andt e bene t it could delive ac o t e count y a e

t e e o e e ential.In Summe 8, Greengauge 21 o med a PublicInte e t G oup to develop a g eate unde tandingo w at ig - peed ail could do o B itain. T iunique Public Inte e t G oup b oug t toget e t ela ge t city council in England and Scotland, t e

egional development agencie , key ail indu t yo gani ation , pa enge t an po t aut o itieand ot e egional and t an po t agencie ac ot e count y. T i epo t p e ent Greengauge 21 conclu ion om t e majo wo k p og amme undedby t e G oup in t e public inte e t: a ig - peed ail

t ategy o B itain.

At t e time t e Public Inte e t G oup wae tabli ed, inte e t in ig - peed ail wa building,

timulated in pa t by t e ucce ul opening o HigSpeed and St Panc a Inte national Station inAutumn 7. Howeve , little active planning waunde way in Gove nment. Since t e Public Inte e tG oup ta ted wo k, a commitment a been madeby t e Con e vative Pa ty, i elected to o m t enext Gove nment, to und a ig - peed ailway linelinking London, Bi ming am, Manc e te and Leed .T e Libe al Democ at ave al o ea med t eip opo al o a p io ity p og amme o ig - peed

ail. Ove t e cou e o t e la t yea , Netwo k Railca ied out and a now epo ted on it New LineStudy. And in Janua y , t e Gove nment et upa company, Hig Speed Two (HS Ltd), to develop ap opo al by t e end o o a ig - peed line omLondon to We t Midland , and potentially beyond.

T e wo k o t e Greengauge 21 Public Inte e t G oup,in looking at t e wide netwo k t ategy o ig -

peed ail, me e well wit t e in-dept wo k beingunde taken by HS on it peci c co ido c eme.T e aim o t e Greengauge 21 wo k p og amme i tolook beyond a t line to t e long-te m vi ion o

ig - peed ail.T i umma y epo t et out w y we need a

ig - peed ail netwo k, w at it mig t look like,it economic bene t and envi onmental impact ,w at it will co t, ow it mig t be delive ed, and it

u tainability implication . It d aw on detailedanaly i ca ied out ove t e la t yea by Greengauge21 advi e . T e detailed epo t a e available on t eGreengauge 21 web ite (www.g eengauge .net/ -development-p og amme. tml).

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Learning rom experience

Other countries have demonstrated the value o setting out a long-term network strategy early on.In Japan, a masterplan or the Shinkansen networkwas drawn up in the 197 s ollowing the openingo the Tokaido Shinkansen, the frst Japanese high-speed railway line. This ambitious masterplan wasdesigned with the intention that everyone wouldbe able to access Shinkansen within one to twohours. It was also integrated with airport planning.This masterplan still orms the basis o current

authorisation o new lines or extensions to existinglines. In the case o Japan and also France, it isnotable that a network strategy was developed a ter the frst line had proved its success, which is wherethe UK now fnds itsel ollowing completion o theChannel Tunnel Rail Link.

In this country, there is a parallel with thecreation o Britains national motorway network.The motorway concept and plans or a networkwere initially put orward in the 193 s and 4 s byassociations o highway engineers, as a solution toan inadequate road network and in the light o whathad been achieved in Germany. Implementing thenew technology in the 195 s required Governmentto develop consistent standards and regulations,although the real push came rom local authorities, in

particular rom the County Surveyor in Lancashire.An objective assessment o inter-urban tra fc needswas not carried out by Government until the 196 s, inrecognition that e ective networks rather than []individual roads were needed.


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T e Ga e do O iente Station, Li bon, Po tugal. One o t e wo ld la ge t t an po t inte c ange wit ove million pa enge pe yea .4


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P oto: Jona Te c

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T e F ank u t Flug a en Fe nba n o Station, Ge many6


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2 w y hsr i needed and w y it needed now

High-speed rail is not just another transport project:it provides a means o supporting long-termeconomic development in Britain and doing so in asustainable way.

The economic imperative

A ig - peed ail netwo k i needed to o m a keypa t o t e nation economic in rastructure . By o e inga tep-c ange in acce ibility, it delive egionaleconomic bene t , p ovide a timulu o tou i m,

uppo t inwa d inve tment and elp imp ove

economic competitivene .A mode n dive i ed economy a ce taineatu e . It i gene ally ag eed t at it will need to

be ocu ed on t e c eative and knowledge-ba edindu t ie , u ing a ig ly killed wo k- o ce togene ate competitive advantage. It i c a acte i tico uc an economy t at it:

i be t built on exi ting bu ine clu te ;

ope ate in an inte national ma ket-place; and equi e ace-to- ace contact (a well a excellent

telecommunication ) to wo k ucce ully [ 1 ].

[ ] See o example, New Industry New Jobs , DBIS, July .

A wa made clea in t e Eddington T an po tStudy o 6 a comp e en ive and ig -pe o mingt an po t y tem i an impo tant enable o u tainedeconomic p o pe ity. Howeve , we lack t e qualityo national t an po t y tem needed to uppo tou economy [ 2 ]. T e ail netwo k i lling up andconge tion on t e ig way netwo k will continue to

old back B itain economic competitivene . T e e ia equi ement o inve tment to ed e t e balance.

O cou e t e e a e c oice . But, a ide om ig -peed ail, t e e ail o a va iety o ea on :

Expanding t e moto way netwo k, wit it lack o ap ice mec ani m to egulate demand, can ac ieveo t te m gain but only at t e p ice o a u ge in

demand t at mean even g eate level o conge tionand un eliability in t e utu e t an exi t today.

Expanding t e netwo k o dome tic ai e vice andt e ai po t capacity needed to andle t em cannotac ieve t e connectivity a ail netwo k o e and

cannot keep up wit expected demand inc ea eeven i all o t e p opo al o unway expan ion a eadopted to a tig t c edule [ 3 ].

[ ] See The Congestion Question: A Business Transport Survey ,B iti C ambe o Comme ce, Novembe 8, in w ic

ju t 8% o bu ine e u veyed con ide ed t at t e UKt an po t in a t uctu e meet t ei bu ine need ullyand 6 % claimed t at t e t an po t y tem in ibit inwa dinve tment in t ei egion.

[ ] Capacity in t e Sout Ea t will emain unable to andlet e o eca t demand om onwa d acco ding to t eAviation W ite Pape , D T .

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Passenger-kilometres travelled by mode

Rail Ca : Index=

Expanding t e exi ting ail netwo k only t ougupg ade t at add e known pinc -point i tocon ign ail u e to lengt y pe iod o di uption,and wit out any p o pect o t e tep-c ange in

jou ney time and eliability t at would encou aget an e om le u tainable mode .

Eac o t e e option a al eady been examined,and, w en et along ide t e inve tment ca e o ig -

peed ail, ound to be in e io [ 4 ]. T e c oice emaino Gove nment to decide, o cou e, and Developing

a Sustainable Transport System i a p oce cu ently

unde way at t e Depa tment o T an po t (D T) top ovide t e nece a y evidence: it would be u p i ingi it developed di e ent conclu ion to t e e.

In ecent yea , u e o t e national ail netwo ka g own a te t an oad u e. W ile o t- aul

ai t avel expe ienced an upli t in demand ollowingt e int oduction o low-co t ai line , t e e ect o t e ece ion ave been pa ticula ly eve e wita all-o in u age o % in t e t qua te o

[ 5 ]. E pecially in t e out ea t, unway capacitylimitation will ta t to bite once t e economy i in

ecove y mode .

[ 4 ] High Speed Line Study: Summary Report , Atkin et al , .

[ ] Aviation T end , Qua te , Civil Aviation Aut o ity.

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A t e economy ecove t e elatively ig g owtin ail demand i expected to e ume. W ile t e e a eplan in t e o t te m to en u e t at ove c owding,e pecially on commute e vice , emain atacceptable level , t e e a e only limited plan beyond

4. T i i w e e ig - peed ail, de pite it ocuon longe di tance inte -city t avel, b ing ac ot e boa d bene t . By emoving exp e non- topt ain om today netwo k, t e capacity t at can be

elea ed i igni cant, and can be u ed o commuteand ail eig t e vice .

An expanding economy, wit a g owing population,

need t e in a t uctu e capacity and capability touppo t it. Hig - peed ail i w at i needed om t et an po t ecto to uppo t economic competitivene .A commitment now would ll a void in cu ent policy:t e ab ence o m plan a te 4 to add e t et an po t capacity o t- all.

T e b oad et o public ecto and t an po tindu t y take olde t at we con ulted believet at HSR i not p ima ily about add e ing a

t an po t p oblem (le till, a ail netwo kp oblem) o muc a a wide economic p oblem [ 6 ].T e impo tant implication i t at t e unding o HSR mu t be con ide ed mo e b oadly t an implya pa t o t e t an po t budget.

[ 6 ] Stake olde Con ultation Repo t, Bi c am Dy on Bell LLPand ComRe , Feb ua y .

In addition, t at w ile t e capacity o ou nationalt an po t netwo k i a o e eeable p oblem, weneed to ave a olution t at add e e t e qualityo t avel, a well a t e quantum; we a e looking

o a y tem wit ve y ig level o t avelle a ety,com o t and ecu ity, ea ily acce ed and a o dable,and eliable. T e unce tainty o t avel time i ainju iou to bu ine e ciency a t e int in ic

lowne o jou ney .HSR a t e t ack eco d to delive eliable

eduction in jou ney time and o e a tep-c angein eliability ove today ail e vice . T i i

p eci ely w at t e Depa tment o T an po t calledo in launc ing it Towards a Sustainable TransportSystem app oac in Novembe 7 [ 7 ].

Sustainability

T e e i al o an impo tant que tion about t enatu e o economic ecove y and expan ion.

Economic p udence would ugge t t at along ide

a e-invigo ated wo ld-leading nancial e viceecto cent ed in London t e e i a need to

build ac o a wide ba e o indu t ie . T i willelp ac ieve a u t e , de i able, outcome: le

development p e u e on t e wide out ea t,w ic a expe ienced t e lion a e o populationg owt ove t e la t 4 yea , and uppo t to t o e

egion w ic a e eage o egene ation and g owt .

[ 7 ] Towa d a Su tainable T an po t Sy tem Cm7 6,Depa tment o T an po t, Octobe 7.

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The reliability o high-speed rail

On t e AVE ig - peed line om Mad id to Seville, pa enge a e gua anteeda ival wit in ve minute o t e adve ti ed time, and a e o e ed a ull e und i

t e t ain i delayed u t e . So a , only . 6% o t ain ave been delayed beyondve minute . W en Eu o ta e vice witc ed om u ing t e exi ting Sout e n

Region ail netwo k to u ing t e new ig - peed link to eac t e C annel Tunnel,punctuality imp oved om 7 % o e vice on time to %.

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T e economic pe o mance o t e egion emoteom London i ma kedly lowe . T e t ee no t e n

Engli egion ave an annual unde -pe o mance o ove bn again t t e Engli national ave age. T ebene t o educing t e no t - out gap in te m o economic p oductivity i uge. And London too willbene t om adically imp oved link wit t e e t o t e count y, link w ic , et along ide t o e it awit t e majo economic cent e in ot e count ie ,a e elatively poo .

Bette , a te connectivity between t e majocitie will elp o te t e economie o cale t at can

att act bu ine e ; bette connection om ac o t enation to t e nancial ma ket in London will elpencou age inve tment out ide t e out ea t (w e et e ventu e capital indu t y p e e to inve t becau eo it acce ibility); a t di ect link to t e nationdominant inte national ai po t at Heat ow will elpbu ine e located out ide t e out ea t to competein wo ld ma ket .

T i i a muc mo e u tainable patte n o economic

development ac o t e Engli egion , Wale andScotland. It would be ein o ced u t e by en u ingt at t e g eate t acce ibility boo t i in city cent e ,

elping to ein o ce exi ting u ban a ea and en ancingt e value o development wit in t em. T i can beac ieved by ig - peed ail, in ta k cont a t to t ee ect o bot aviation and oad -o iented expan ionw ic encou age pe i-u ban p awl and developmenton u al land, adding to t e wide envi onmentalcon equence o t an po t. T e wide economic gaino a ig - peed ail netwo k a illu t ated in c apte 6 a e balanced ac o B itain and a e not imply ocu edon London and t e out ea t.

T e need to educe ca bon emi ion i nowefected in gove nment ta get . Plan to de-ca boni e

p ivate ca equi e a w ole ale witc away omcu ent engine tec nologie , w ic i going totake eve al decade to ac ieve [ 8 ]. Plan to educet e g een ou e ga emi ion om ai c a t, alongwit t e u e o la ge plane , will imp ove t eipe o mance in te m o emi ion pe pa engeca ied. But a we ow in t e next c apte , t i inow e e nea enoug to o e a good alte native to

ail and to ig - peed ail t avel.Ac ieving a ub tantial eduction in ca bon om

t e t an po t ecto , w e e g een ou e ga emi iona e till g owing, equi e a c ange in t e u e o t edi e ent t an po t mode . Fo local t avel, t i willmean an emp a i on walk, cycle, bu and t am, inp e e ence to ca t avel. But longe di tance t avel

a a di p opo tionate e ect on ca bon emi ion .Fo example, long-di tance ca t ip o ove mileaccount o 44% o all ca t avel in B itain, mea u edby di tance t avelled: t e elatively mall numbe o

longe ca jou ney t e e o e c eate ove one-t i d o t e ca bon emi ion om t avel by p ivate ca [ 9 ].Hig - peed ail can po itively att act people om

t ei ca to u e a mo e envi onmentally benign wayo t avelling.

[ 8 ] T e King Review o Low Ca bon Ca , Octobe 7.

[ ] Ca bon Pat way Analy i In o ming Development o a Ca bon Reduction St ategy o t e T an po t Secto ,Depa tment o T an po t, July 8.

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T e e need to be a c ange in t e balance o t eu e o t e t an po t mode , and ig - peed ail couldlead to an ove all eduction o ca bon om t e onwa d , w en t e p oduction o elect icity t at willpowe t e e vice will it el nece a ily be well-p og e ed down t e pat o de-ca boni ation.

T e u gency in all o t i tem om t e lead time .It take time to ac ieve a witc to enewable -ba edelect icity, to enew t e nuclea -ba ed p opo tion o t e national ene gy upply and to adopt cleane coaltec nology; time w ic pa allel t e planning andcon t uction time cale o ig - peed ail w ic willenable t e g eene ene gy upply to be put to good u eo e ing t e con ume an alte native to p ivate ca o

o t aul aviation powe ed u ing o il uel .

Why high-speed rail is needed now

T e need o ig - peed ail i t ee- old:

to p ovide u cient ig e quality t an po t

capacity ac o t e nation to timulate a mo e e cient economy to educe ca bon emi ion .

T e e i a need now to develop plan to p ovideu cient long te m capacity on ou national t an po t

in a t uctu e. T e next ve yea can be u ed todevelop and obtain con ent o peci c plan oHSR w ic can add capacity o bot pe on t aveland eig t in a manageable and u tainable way. T elonge a deci ion to p oceed i de e ed, t e longe we

all need to pend ine ciently on a make-do andmend ba i on an ove c owded t an po t netwo k.

T e economic and ca bon equi ement a e botu gent matte w e e we know delay i expen ive.

T i epo t call o mo e t an a deci ion top og e a ingle c eme, welcome t oug t at wouldbe. Wit out a longe te m t ategy o HSR and t eexi ting main line t e e i a i k t at:

(a) wide bene t may be quande ed

(b) wit a piecemeal app oac , co t may be ig et an nece a y

(c) t e pan- egional uppo t t at t e Public Inte e tG oup a ta ted to o te will di ipate,extending t e planning time cale be o econ t uction o t e t national HSR line ieven ta ted.

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T e AVE at Za agoza Delicia Station, Spain P oto: T ealx14


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3 w at will hsr o e t e t avelling public?

Customers needs must be paramount in designingand planning high-speed rail. A high-qualityservice accessible to all is essential to ensuring that high-speed rail is the frst choice or long-distancetravel in Britain.

A new ig - peed ail e vice will o e at an o mation om t e t avelling expe ience weknow today. It will be ea y to book and ea y to u e. Itwill be de igned wit cu tome in mind amilie ,

oliday-make , tudent , bu ine t avelle . T ainwill be mode n, well-laid out and ig ly eliable, andt e e will be no tanding in t e ai le pa engewill be gua anteed a eat, not ju t w en booking inadvance but al o wit la t-minute eat-allocation

o tu n-up-and-go. All o t i i e ential to makeu e we can delive t e policy objective outlined in

c apte .

What markets is HSR serving?

HSR e vice will be aimed p ima ily atpa enge making long-di tance jou ney int i ma ket t e ailway al eady play an impo tant

ole, accounting o ove 6 pe cent o city tocity t ip om London to de tination uc aBi ming am, Manc e te and Leed . In ot ema ket , pa ticula ly o connection between citieout ide London o o t avel beyond city cent e ,

ail cu ently a a elatively low mode a e and

con ide able potential to expand.

T e ma ket e ea c ca ied out o Greengauge 21 [ 1 ] ow t at t ain t avel o long-di tance jou ney can

be a g eat way to make good u e o t avel time andt avel om city cent e to city cent e. But t e e emainba ie to g eate u e o t e ail netwo k, uc at e pe ceived co t and complexity o ail a e andove c owding w ic t e ail indu t y i awa e o and beginning to add e . In compa i on, t e appealo ot e mode o t an po t i no longe a t ong ait once wa . T avel by ca may p e ent t e ultimate inte m o eedom, but it i an inc ea ingly u t atingexpe ience in t e lig t o eve -inc ea ing conge tion.And w ile pa enge ee ai t avel a aving anau a o glamou attac ed to it and value t e low-co toption available t e e day , ai t avel i lo ing it

ine too, om t e inc ea ing i itation o ecu itycont ol , baggage e t iction and fig t delay .

[ ] P oject Bullet, The Leading Edge , July .

Arriving at St Pancras.

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What does HSR need to deliver?

T e HSR concept de c ibed e e i ba ed in la gepa t on w at a been delive ed by ot e ig - peed

ailway y tem ac o t e wo ld, and a been e nedt oug ou own ma ket e ea c . A ig - peed

ailway netwo k o B itain will o e a new ig -quality t avel expe ience o t e public, p oviding anatt active alte native to ot e mode o t an po t. Itneed to add e t e va ying need o ail t avelle int e way t at ca t avel allow u to do now.

The key eatures o the HSR service

Mode n ea y booking y tem , allowing pa engeto book in advance, take advantage o equentt avelle p og amme , p int out t ei ownticket and plan t ei w ole end-to-end jou neye ectively;

Ea y way to acce HSR, wit dedicated plat o m

at mode n tation , new inte c ange wit ot emode o t an po t;

Hig -level o cu tome e viceat tation and ont ain , wit ta on and at all time p ovidingattention to t e detail t at count;

Sleek mode n and clean new t ain , witcommunication and ente tainment acilitie on

boa d to make good u e o t avelling time;

D amatically educed jou ney time compa ed wittoday, p oviding a competitive alte native to o t-

aul ai t avel;

Exp e limited- top ail e vicebetween B itainmajo town and citie ;

Ult a- ig level o punctuality, beating delay on t econge ted oad netwo k.

Ou ma ket e ea c eveal t at, in addition to t euge bene t t at educed jou ney time will delive ,

pa enge place pa ticula value on:

A con i tent and eadily-unde tandable p icingt uctu e. In cont a t to t e national ail netwo k,

Eu o ta a a memo able p ice point oetu n jou ney to Pa i /B u el , alt oug aange o mo e fexible and mo e expen ive a e

a e o e ed w ic elp keep up ave age yield .An equivalent lowe t p omotional p ice point o

dome tic ig - peed ail e vice could be oa etu n t ip o e ing uc a e , even i limitedto le bu y t ain , will elp en u e t at HSR ia o dable to all.

In o mation and a angement o be o e t e jou neyand o onwa d t avel to t e ultimate de tination . To

educe a le and inc ea e t e ea e o t avel,efecting t e point t at t e ail t ip i no mally

only one pa t o a longe jou ney and many u ea e not egula ail t avelle .

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A e vice t at un day a week, wit out weekendclo u e o enginee ing wo k. On JapanS inkan en netwo k, all enginee ing wo k ica ied out at nig t, avoiding t e need o any lineclo u e in t e daytime. Sunday i t e bu ie t dayo t e week at Heat ow: an indicato t at t ii o ten c o en a a good day o longe di tancet ip ; un o tunately, Sunday t avel on today ailnetwo k can be a c ancy a ai .

Mode n tanda d o acce ibility, including o t emobility-impai ed . In pa t, t i can be en ancedt oug excellent cu tome e vice, but buildingnew in a t uctu e and t ain p ovide t eoppo tunity to p ovide om t e ta t acilitie t atallow o ea y acce by all.

It i al o clea om t e ma ket e ea c t at t e ei g eat uppo t o HSR: o t o e we u veyed, 78%believe t at HSR i e ential o B itain in t e utu e.Howeve , w ile t e e i a ea onable app eciation

o t e concept o ig - peed ail, ome people a econ u ed ove ow t i di e om today ailp oduct and conce ned ove ow it will be delive edand paid o . T i epo t will elp ta t t e p oce o winning public con dence in t e delive ability o HSRby building con en u on w at it all about and w atkind o expe ience it will p ovide.

Facilities or wheelchairs on the high-speed t rains in Taiwan.

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T e F ank u t Flug a en Fe nba n o Station, Ge many P oto: Heiko Da ow

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High-speed rail has great potential to reduceour dependence on car and air travel and couldmake a contribution to reducing the nations CO emissions. Experience has also shown that adverseenvironmental impacts can be minimised throughcare ul planning.

Impact o HSR on car and air travel

By d amatically peeding up ail jou ney time ,ig - peed ail o e a competitive and att active

alte native to ot e mode o t an po t, i tingpeople out o plane and ca . T i i bo ne out byinte national expe ience: t e eduction in ai t avelon co ido now e ved by ig - peed ail a been

ub tantial ac o Eu ope.T e e ect o t e Spani ig - peed ailway

netwo k, AVE, a been d amatic in educing ait avel om Mad id to Ba celona.

Carbon e fciency o HSR

Ope ating t ain at ig e peed mig t be t oug tto inc ea e ene gy con umption, but in p actice t i i

o et by acto uc a t e e ciency o ae odynamicolling tock de ign, t e ig capacity o t ain

and ig load acto . Evidence p epa ed o t ip og amme [ 1 ] demon t ate t at ig - peed t aincan be a e cient a today km/ ou Pendolinot ain ope ating on t e We t Coa t Main Line.

[ ] Energy consumption and CO impacts o High Speed Rail , ATOCanaly i o G eengauge , Ap il .

Madrid Barcelona

T e e ect o AVE on ail ma ket a eRail Ai

4 hsr ca bon c edential and u tainability

Be o e AVE Now Futu e

70%

3 %

48%

5 %

16%

4%

Energy consumption o high-speed trainskW / eat-km

AGV (e t.) . 33

S inkan en . 9

TGV Duplex . 37

TGV . 39

Eu o ta . 41

Pendolino ( km/ ) . 33

Sou ce: ATOCNote: Pendolino a e conventional peed t ain , ope ating at km/ on today ailway; all t e ot e t ain type a e ig - peedt ain ope ating (o planned to ope ate) at km/ o above inot e count ie .

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Forecasts o carbon emissions

T e elative ca bon pe o mance o a t eo eticalpa enge jou ney i u e ul to know, but mo e

impo tantly, ow mig t t i play out in p actice o aig - peed ail netwo k in B itain?

Fo eca t p epa ed o t i tudy[ 2 ] ugge t t at aull HSR netwo k would e ult in an annual eduction

in CO emi ion by o one million tonne .

1,000,000T i i a valuable cont ibution om t e long-di tancedome tic ma ket to t e ca bon eduction t at allecto need to delive . T i i ba ed on t e expectededuction in ca and ai t avel, but al o take into

account t e o eca t ca bon emi ion a i ing ompa enge t avelling on ig - peed ail e vice . By

a t e bigge t bene t i ecu ed om t e o eca t

eduction in ai t avel.

[ ] Hig Speed Rail Development P og amme. P incipalCon ultant Final Repo t, SYSTRA-MVA, Augu t .

T e e ult i t at t avel by ig - peed ail cu entlyp oduce one-t i d o t e ca bon emi ion o ca t avel and one-qua te o t e emi ion o anequivalent t ip by ai , w en taking into account t e

ave age loading typically ac ieved on eac mode o t an po t. Looking to t e utu e, ope ating on elect ict action, ig - peed ail will u t e imp ove itenvi onmental pe o mance a ou elect icity upplybecome g adually deca boni ed. Ai t avel, eveni it become mo e e cient, i likely to continue tobe e t icted to pet oleum-ba ed uel ou ce . Andeven i we ee a i t in t e utu e to elect ic ca , t eca bon advantage o ig - peed ail t avel will be ag eat i not bette .

T avel by ig - peed ail p oduce igni cantlyle ca bon emi ion t an ca and ai t avel.

Carbon emissions per passenger-km

8 4

Hig - peed ail

. .

.

Ca

.

8

4

.8.4

.6

Aviation

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Other environmental impacts

T e e a e o cou e ot e envi onmental impactt at will a i e om t e con t uction and ope ation

o a ig - peed ailway, alt oug expe ience omot e count ie ow t at t e e can be mitigatedo managed. Land-take om new in a t uctu edevelopment i inevitable, but t e envi onmentalimpact can be minimi ed by building along ideexi ting t an po t co ido , tunnelling t ougpa ticula ly en itive o built-up a ea o ot e meano envi onmental p otection. Con t uction o new

ailway i muc le co tly, in te m o land-take,t an building new oad : a two-t ack ig - peed

ailway can ca y ove 6, pa enge an ouand equi e 4 % le land-take pe pa enge t an at ee lane moto way.

To make t e mo t o a new ail co ido , it maybe wo t inve tigating t e ca e o p oviding oot e utilitie wit in t e HSR con t uction envelope,including o a upe -g id and to p ovide additional

wate upply o t e out ea t alt oug t i ouldnot comp omi e t e de ign o delive y o t e ig -peed ailway netwo k.

T e e p ojection ocu on t e ca bon impactom t e ope ation o ig - peed ail e vice ; t e

ca bon impact o con t uction o new ailway linei al o an impo tant i ue to be con ide ed. T i

i a complex a ea and it i di cult to a embleclea evidence on t e ca bon content o ailwaycon t uction. Analy i ca ied out by Netwo kRail [ 3 ] ugge t t at t e ca bon emi ion omin a t uctu e con t uction and t ain p oductionadd a ound % to t e di ect ca bon emi iona i ing om t ain ope ation at today level o ca bon emi ion . Howeve , given t at we expectelect icity gene ation to deca boni e igni cantlyin t e utu e, ove t e li etime o a ig - peed

ailway line, t e in a t uctu e ca bon impact willbe p opo tionately muc g eate , at 7 % o t e totalca bon emi ion ove a -yea pe iod. Ca bonco t a e a acto in t e con t uction o enewal o any new in a t uctu e and it i acknowledged t atwe need to develop le ca bon-inten ive met od o con t uction ac o t e boa d.

[ ] Compa ing envi onmental impact o conventional and igpeed ail, Netwo k Rail, Augu t .

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T e F ank u t Flug a en Fe nba n o Station, Ge many P oto: Heiko Da ow4

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5 w at would a national hsr netwo k look like?

A high-speed rail network could providedramatically improved rail services to all majorurban areas in Britain. This will be achieved throughthe phased development o a network o north-

south and east-west lines.

T e ationale o developing ig - peed ail inB itain applie ac o t e nation a a w ole. Wit t eability to ope ate ig - peed t ain ove t e exi ting

ail netwo k a well a ove newly con t ucted HSRline , it i eali tic to expect t at, in t e ullne o time, all majo u ban a ea will be e ved by ig -

peed ail.In p actice, t e ig - peed ail netwo k will need

to be developed in tage . P io itie will ave to beet wit p a ing taking into account a o dability

con t aint . But t e e i immen e value in aving anoutline o ow t e ove all netwo k i likely to evolve.

The national HSR network

T e national HSR netwo k comp i e two no t -out oute , one on t e ea t, one on t e we t ide

o t e count y. T e e a e impo tant, o te , ea t-we t link , om London to B i tol/Sout Wale ,ac o t e Pennine and between Edinbu g andGla gow. Heat ow Ai po t i on t i netwo k,comp e en ively connected into ig - peed andconventional ail oute . T e e i a connection to t eexi ting ig - peed oute to Kent and t e C annelTunnel w ic will allow t e ope ation o t oug

ig - peed e vice om place ot e t an Londonto Eu opean citie [ 1 ].Not own on t e diag am, buto g eat impo tance, will be a e ie o connection tot e exi ting netwo k o t at ig - peed e vice can

eac u t e key cent e .T e e i a ound bu ine ca e o t e w ole

netwo k a own, and al o o eac o t e keyelement wit in it.

[ ] To avoid con u ion, we ave te med t e e new ig - peedline a own: t e oute between London and t e No tWe t and Scotland i own a HS-NW; t e line on t e ea t

ide o t e count y i own a HS-NE. T e t an -Pennineoute i HS-TP, t e oute to Sout Wale and t e Sout

We t i own a HS-WW and t e C annel Tunnel Rail

Link i own a HS-CT. T e imple nume ical equence(HS , HS etc) i now u ed o companies , wit HS cu entlyGove nment-owned and expected to be old, and t e teamwo king on a ig - peed oute between London and t eWe t Midland (and potentially beyond) called HS .

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Sections of route comprisingupgraded/new lines operatingat speeds of 200km/h+

H S - C T

HS-WW

H S - N W

H S - N E

H S - N W

H S - N E

HS-TP

New high-speed railwaysoperating at speeds of upto 320km/h

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Technical parameters

T e ig - peed ail netwo k a been developedat t i tage on t e ba i o ope ation at peed o

km/ . Above t i peed, t e e i a t ade-o wite vice equency. We ave planned on being able to

ope ate up to t ain / ou on ig - peed line .T ain would be 4 met e long, wit ome o

t em ope ated a two m et in multiple. T e al lengt t ain may ope ate on e vice on t e exi tingnetwo k, alt oug uc t ain could be en iblyope ated at up to m lengt .

New line would be built to UIC GC gauge [ 2 ] and EU-mandated tanda d o ig - peed ail, compatiblewit ope ation ove t e C annel Tunnel Rail Linkand t e Eu opean netwo k. T i will allow t eope ation o duplex (double-deck) t ain in due cou e,w ic o e a 4 % upli t in capacity wit no u t ein a t uctu e co t.

On t ee ection o t e HSR netwo k ( own int e netwo k diag am colou ed g een) o di e ing

ea on , t e be t way o wa d may tu n out to be inpa t a line-o - oute upg ade, and ope ating peedwould be lowe , o t e o de o km/ . In ucca e , a t e HSR netwo k o e vice expand ,it would be de i able to adopt t e la ge UIC GCgauge (w ic will equi e wo k to ove -b idgeand an inc ea ed pacing between unning t ack )to en u e capacity and com o t bene t o la get ain i not quande ed.

[ ] UIC GC Gauge i an inte national tanda d o loading gauget at allow ig -capacity double-deck olling tock to ope ate.

HSR services

T e HSR e vice will o e ve y ub tantial timeaving ove exi ting ail and oad alte native ;

w en account i taken o ai po t acce and c eck-ina angement , in many ca e t ey will be a te t anai e vice too.

HSR services will typically o er journey time savings o 3045% over todays rail journey

4

4

Jou ney time aving

Hig - peed ail jou ney time

L o n

d o n

E d i n b u r g

h

L o n

d o n

G l a s g o w

L o n

d o n

N e w s c a s

t l e

L o n

d o n

L e e d s

L o n

d o n

M a n c h e s

t e r

L o n

d o n

B i r m

i n g h a m

L o n

d o n

B r i s t o l

L o n

d o n

C a r

d i f f

B i r m

i n g h a m

P a r i s

M a n c h e s

t e r

N e w c a s t

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T e e vice will be add e ing di e ent ma keto t e e i no ea on w y all o t e ig - peede vice ould be p ovided by a ingle ope ato . In

p actice, t e be t u e o t e HSR netwo k may e ult

om a mix o e vice , ome unning exclu ivelyon ig - peed line , and t e e o e able to takeadvantage o contempo a y de ign tanda d , witwide , oomie coac e ; ot e will ope ate exten ion

e vice , leaving t e HSR netwo k to eac t eiultimate de tination wit out equi ing pa engeto c ange t ain . Some e vice will ope ate ovet e national HSR netwo k and onwa d t oug t eC annel Tunnel to Eu ope. Se vice om Heat owAi po t mig t be ope ated by ai line a a ub titute

o eede e vice t at would ot e wi e u e ca ceunway lot .

T e e a e t ee ea on w y ig - peed ail iplanned to un t oug to t e ea t o city cent e :

T uncating line (and e vice ) o t at t e edge o citie dete pa enge and de t oy t e bu ineca e; t e advantage ove ot e t avel mode i

e iou ly comp omi ed.

We ave an aim o encou aging u tainabledevelopment. T e be t way to ac ieve t atwit t an po t inve tment i to en ance t eacce ibility (and t e e o e t e value o ) city cent elocation . T i i w e e bu ine and ot e activityi at it mo t inten e and w e e inte national

expe ience demon t ate ig peed ail can be tuppo t economic g owt .

Hig - peed ail b ing a uge injection o t an po tcapacity (up to 6, eat / ou in eac di ection);di pe al o la ge volume om HSR tation

equi e ca e ul planning to avoid ove loading

ection o t e public t an po t and oad netwo k.T i c allenge can be be t met in city cent e .

T o e citie t at a e on t e line o t e ig -peed oute po e a pa ticula c allenge. A t oug

HSR tation on a bu y line, to ope ate ati acto ily,need to ave a pai o plat o m o eac di ectiono t avel and t oug line wit out plat o m onon- topping e vice . T e e i a need o a ou -t ack ection o eve al kilomet e lengt , andeven t en, peed o t oug e vice will need tobe educed omew at. Wit a city cent e location,t i inevitably point gene ally towa d a need

o unde g ound con t uction. Ove all t i i anexpen ive olution, and not nece a ily one witimmen e pa enge appeal.

Fo t i ea on, app oac e to city cent e a egene ally bette made ove dedicated pu om a

ig - peed line t at pa e a ound t e city at et an t oug it [ 3 ]. In ome ca e t i can make u e o exi ting tation , uitably e-con gu ed.

[ ] T i i Greengauge 21s view, ba ed on t e wo k o ouP incipal Con ultant , SYSTRA-MVA. We note al o t e viewo Netwo k Rail in t ei New Line tudy, Augu t .


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T e e i cope o edge-o -city ub tationin addition to t e city cent e location . We aveidenti ed eve al uitable ite to a u e ou elvet i i ea ible. One option i to p ovide a HSR tation

at an exi ting ai po t w e e t e e i at lea t omeo t e equi ite uppo t in a t uctu e and accet an po t. T i oppo tunity a i e in eve al pa t o t e count y. T e e i al o t e oppo tunity o ai - ailinte c ange, but t i would not be t e dominantdemand d ive at uc tation . W at t e e tationmay ac ieve, oweve , i an att action o t o ew o would need to u e p ivate ca to acce HSR

e vice , a long a t i can be ac ieved wit outadve e t a c impact . One idea o a pa ticula lyatt active combination mig t be to u e uc tationto p io iti e pa king o elect ic ve icle , equippingt em wit uitable c a ging point . T e limited

ange o elect ic ve icle elp to ove come one o t e po ible d awback o o e ing ea y acce byca , w ic i a tendency o ome d ive to makeexce ively long acce jou ney w en t e e a emo e local c oice on o e .

High Speed North West

T e bu ine ca e o Hig Speed No t We t it ong and i made even by t onge by t e addition

o t e no t e n ection om t e Manc e te a eano t wa d to Gla gow and Edinbu g . It i po ibleto ac ieve min jou ney time between Londonand eac o Gla gow and Edinbu g i HSR i builtt oug out and i t e e a e no inte mediate top . Amo e likely cena io pe ap , i o uc e vice to

ave a ingle inte mediate top (in t e We t Midlando t e No t We t) in w ic ca e jou ney tine wouldbe a ound 4 min. T i would lead to a ub tantial

witc o t a c om ai t avel, wit t e London toGla gow/Edinbu g ma ket a e o ail p ojected toinc ea e om 6% to 88%.

Wit inte mediate tation call adding oug ly minute to jou ney time , two point a e appa ent:

A de ign t at would ave one ig - peed lineto Scotland e ving inte mediate citie uc aBi ming am, Manc e te , Leed , and Newca tlewould ave a poo end-to end jou ney time (indeednot muc quicke t an can be ac ieved today,w en t e extended oute lengt i al o acto ed in).

Hig -Speed No t We t ould be de ignedla gely a ound a pu concept to e ve t e majocitie in t e co ido . Wit ca e ully integ atedplanning, t i can p ovide o excellent a t

connection between all o t e citie en oute awell a to/ om London.

Image: SWNS

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High Speed North East

Hig Speed No t Ea t, al o a no t - outline, would e ve t e ea te n ide o t e Pennine ,

p oviding e vice om London to t e Ea tMidland , Yo k i e & t e Humbe , t e No t Ea tand Scotland. It would be po ible to ave t iline e ve Stan ted [ 4 ], and/o Camb idge and o econnection onwa d to Ea t Anglia de tinationove t e exi ting netwo k.

Wit Hig Speed No t We t able to o e a t jou ney time to cent al Scotland, t i line till aa ca e to be extended ove t e bo de to Edinbu g ,becau e o t e ve y ig level o connectivity betweencitie in England and Scotland t i would o e . Itwould need to be a e ed w et e t i would ju ti ya ull new HSR ove t e mile ection betweenNewca tle and Edinbu g , o w et e t e advantageo being able to accommodate ig e gauge e vicecould be ecu ed pa tly by upg ading t e exi ting line,a own in t e national netwo k diag am.

[ 4 ] An ea twa d exten ion o new line towa d Colc e tewould mean t at HSR e vice to Stan ted would be able toe ve a ic e va iety o t avel ma ket ac o t e Ea t o

England, a uming t at a HSR tation would not be on t eline o oute but on pu om HS-NE.

Scotland

T e need to acce bot Gla gow and Edinbu gc eate an oppo tunity to a ion a mode t HSR

netwo k wit in Scotland t at can meet c allengeidenti ed by T an po t Scotland a well a uppo tno t - out HSR e vice ac o t e bo de .

In pa ticula , it would be po ible to ope atee vice o e ing u e ul time aving ove exi ting

t ain on t e ollowing oute , by u ing a combinationo HSR built in t e cent al belt and exi ting line [ 5 ]:

Edinbu g Gla gow Gla gow Edinbu g Ai po t Dundee/Abe deen

and Pe t /Inve ne .

London and surrounds

T e London a ea p e ent one o t e mo e complexnetwo k c allenge . T e aim a e:

To acce cent al London om Hig Speed No tWe t and Hig Speed No t Ea t

To link bot o t e e line to Heat ow and to t eC annel Tunnel Rail Link

To link Heat ow additionally to bot Hig SpeedWale & We t and t e C annel Tunnel Rail Link.

[ ] One u t e oute wo t con ide ing would be a no t - outHSR line ac o Fi e, b oadly ollowing t e M co ido .T i will be a matte o t e Scotti Executive to con ide .


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We ave bene ted om u e ul analy i unde takenby T an po t o London on t e que tion o uitablete minal location . To avoid ove loading t eunde g ound netwo k, mo e t an one te minu

tation would be needed o a national HSR netwo k.We a e con dent t at t e e i a good olution oHig Speed No t We t and option ave al o beenidenti ed o a Hig Speed No t Ea t te minu . AHSR connection to Heat ow ai po t would b oadenacce ibility and take p e u e o cent al Londonte minu capacity. Plan o C o ail and T ame link

elp p ovide igni cant additional acce capacity,but, o cou e, we e planned wit out ega d to t epo ible development o a national HSR netwo k.

London i t e bigge t ingle ma ket o nationalHSR e vice , but it i al o w e e inte -connectionneed to be a ioned i a lengt y new build M - tyleline a ound London i to be avoided. In pa ticula ,t e e i a clea ca e o extending HSR e vice omt e new national HSR netwo k ove HS , making u eo t e exi ting HSR tation at St at o d and extendeda app op iate into Eu ope.

Ou conclu ion i t at it may be po ible to c eatet e nece a y linkage identi ed above and to do o at

ea onable co t. T e e i a need o tunnelling wo k ,but not o any unde g ound tation o junction ,and none o t e olution lead to a continuou tunnel

om cent al London to t e edge o t e built-up a ea(a wa nece a y wit Hig Speed C annel Tunnel).

High Speed Wales & West

Ou conclu ion , eac ed in con ultation wit t eWel A embly Gove nment, we e t at:

Ope ation o HSR e vice equi e elect i cationo t e G eat We te n Main Line, w ic would allowt oug e vice om ot e HSR line to ope ateove t i ig -quality line at peed o km/ ;

A long-di cu ed connection om t e potentialHSR tation at Heat ow would allow uc e vicedi ect acce to Heat ow om Sout Wale andSout We t England;

T e ca e o HSR development in t i co ido i likelyto be a lowe p io ity becau e o t e o te di tanceand ig -pe o mance o t e exi ting ailway, but

T e e will come a time w en a HSR line couldb ing igni cant wide bene t , including t ec eation o a epa ate oute ac o t e Seve nE tua y (w ic ould be examined in connectionwit t e S oot ba age p opo al, wit w ic itcould be co-aligned).

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Massy TGV Strasbourg

Lyon Part-Dieu

MontpellierMarseille

Bordeaux

Nantes

Le Mans

Rennes

Arras

Lille Europe

Mame-la-Valle-Chessy TGV

Juvisy

TGV Haute-Picardie

Douai

Lorraine-TGV

Montbard

Dijon

Le Creusot-TGV

Mcon-TGV

Mcon-TGV

Nimes

Bziers

Pepignan

Carcassonne

Toulouse

Agen

Bayonne

St Jean-de-Luz

Nice

Cannes

Cannes

Dax

Biaritz

Hendaye

Libourne

Brive

Limoes

La Rochelle

Chteroux

Poitiers

Niort

Angers

St Pierre-des-Corps

Redon

Quimper

Auray

BrestMoraix

Guingamp

Le HavreCherbourg

St Brieuc

St Nazaire

Les Aubrais-Orlans

La Souterraine

Vierzon

Futuroscope

Vierzon

VannesLorient

Ste

AgdeNarbonne

Lyon Saint-Expry-TGV

Annemasse

St Gervais-les-Bains

Bourg St Maurice

Modane

Avignon-TGV

Les ArcsDraguignan

St Raphal

Antibes

Toulon

Grenoble

Besanon

Montbard

Aroport CDG-TGV

Champage-Ardenne-TGV

TGV lines

Shared lines

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T e e ulting Hig Speed Wale & We t c emei included in t e national netwo k, ecogni ing t atit would in p actice be developed in tage , ta tingwit u e o t e elect i ed G eat We te n line a

de c ibed. T i oute will be elect i ed ollowing t eSec eta y o State announcement o July and ial o due o application o a new t ain cont ol y tem.Con ide ation will need to be given to w et e t e einve tment ould allow o ope ation ove co e

ection at peed ig e t an km/ .

High Speed Trans-Pennine

We believe t at t e e ould be a mixed t a cnew oute ac o t e Pennine , capable o ope ating at

km/ and uppo ting additional egional e vicea well a a et o longe di tance e vice t at would

un ove t i new link and Hig Speed No t We t/No t Ea t. Suc a oute could uppo t t e ope ationo UIC GC gauge eig t e vice too, but t e ca e to do

o a not been evaluated.T i oute would link S e eld and Manc e te

Ai po t, and uppo t a wide ange o e viceincluding oute uc a Newca tle S e eld Manc e te Ai po t Live pool.

A noted below, t e Manc e te Leed co idodoe not appea to be a uitable pa t o a t oug -

oute no t - out HSR c eme. Jou ney timebetween London and Leed , o example, would not

be pa ticula ly att active, and t e co t and ea ibilityi ue a e a p oblem. T i conclu ion leave open, o cou e, t e potential ea ly bene t o upg ading t eexi ting no t t an -Pennine oute wit elect i cationand ig e peed wit out delay. Suc a oute would

ave ome limited ole in uppo ting exten ion o ig - peed e vice to/ om Hig Speed No t Ea t.

The classic rail network

Wit a HSR netwo k, we can e e to t e exi tingail y tem a t e cla ic netwo k, and it u e can

c ange ub tantially wit t e longe di tance non-top t ain emoved.

Additional e vice , o e ing bette equencieto inte mediate tation , could be un ove t e

ollowing line :

We t Coa t Main Line Ea t Coa t Main Line Midland Main Line (pa t o ) G eat We te n Main Line We t Anglia Main Line (po ibly) G eat Ea te n Main Line.

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Phased implementation o the national network

T e national netwo k a been developed wit t eelp and guidance o take olde t oug egional

and co ido -level wo k op . We ave u ed t eGuiding P inciple de c ibed below and t e wo k onbu ine ca e a t e co e evidence ba e on w ic to

eac conclu ion .It i ve y clea t at t e c allenge we ave

identi ed, efected in t e Guiding P inciple , cannotbe met by t e con t uction o a ingle HSR line. A

ingle no t - out oute ail to p ovide u cientcapacity o a ta t, and i p ojected to be ull wit in

about yea o opening. We ave al o ound it to beext emely impo tant to develop a et o connectionto t e two no t - out line to en u e t at t e ullpotential bene t o HSR can be captu ed.

One o t e me it o an ove all vi ion o t eutu e ig - peed netwo k at a national level i t at

it c eate option o ow it implementation can bep og e ed in p a e . In ou ea lie epo t in June

7, we et out a ationale o aving a t tageconnecting London, t e C annel Tunnel Rail Link,and Heat ow wit t e We t Midland and beyond [ 7 ].Not ing in ou wo k to date a ugge ted t at t i

ould not be t e t tage o a national netwo kand Netwo k Rail appea to ave eac ed t e ameconclu ion [ 8 ]. Howeve , t e de ign o t e ea ly p a eo t e HSR netwo k need to take into account t eve y igni cant bene t t at HSR o e ove longe

di tance and t e way t at t e national netwo kmig t evolve.

T e e a e ou ea on w y Hig -Speed No t We tould o m t e t p a e:

it a t e be t bu ine ca e [ 9 ]

t e We t Coa t Main Line w ic it will elievedi ectly i p ojected to be t e clo e t o t enational main ail line to capacity

[ 7 ] Greengauge 21: High Speed Two: a Greengauge 21 Proposition , June 7.

[ 8 ] Netwo k Rail, Meeting the Capacity Challenge The Case or NewLines, Augu t .

[ ] T e bu ine ca e o HSR between London and Manc e te (HS-NW) i t onge t an between London and Newca tle (HS-NE). Arriving at St Pancras rom HS1.36


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it can be developed in a way t at p ead t ebene t o a t con t uction p a e beyond t e

egion o t e Sout Ea t, We t Midland andNo t We t to eac Scotland, t e Ea t Midland ,

Yo k i e and t e No t Ea t

it i elatively ea y to add a connection to botHeat ow and to HS-CT om t i oute.

T e e i no p o pect o a ingle no t - out linebeing u cient: it eac e t e limit o it capacity by

4 / . A econd no t - out oute on t e ea te nide o t e count y a a ve y good bu ine ca e in

it own ig t. And a econd oute i demon t ablybette t an p oviding a ou -t ack olution ove t elengt o Hig Speed No t We t a a mean top ovide t e nece a y long-te m capacity. A po iblep a ed implementation equence could be:

Hig Speed No t We t between London and t eNo t We t including t e line to t e C annel TunnelRail Link and Heat ow [ 10 ]

. Hig Speed No t We t between London and t eNo t We t including t e line to t e C annelTunnel Rail Link and Heat ow

[ ] Wit a we te n connect ion built to t e HSR tation atHeat ow, t i would allow HSR e vice to eac B i tol/Sout Wale and t e We t o England, potentially, ope atingove t e exi ting (but elect i ed) G eat We te n Main Line.

. i) Hig Speed No t Ea t between London andt e No t Ea tii) Hig Speed No t We t between No t We tEngland and Gla gow/Edinbu g Hig Speed

T an -Pennine

. i) Hig Speed T an -Pennineii) Hig Speed Wale & We t.

T e p io itie o HSR e vice , and t e bene tt ey will con e , di e ac o t e egion . T e

ugge ted p a ing take t e e into account, a well at e evidence on value o money implication . Wit in

eac o t e ve HSR oute own above (wit HigSpeed No t We t plit into two ection ), t e e willbe t e po ibility o ub-p a e , in o de to keep t ep ocu ement and delive y ta k manageable. But acan be een in ot e Eu opean count ie , t e e i no

ea on w y p og e cannot be ac ieved on mo et an a ingle co ido at any one time, and t e e inot ing to ay t at, o example, Scotti aut o itie

ould not make a ta t on HSR wit in Scotlandea lie t an implied above.

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An ICE t ain at t e F ank u t Flug a en Fe nba n o Station, Ge many

-

-

to Europe

central London

via Heathrow or -

Se vice plano a t tage

Hig Speed

No t We tc eme to t e

We t Midland

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Implications or a frst line to the West Midlands

I Gove nment decide , ollowing t e eceipt o t eepo t o it company, HS , t at it wi e to p oceed

wit a t line between London and t e We tMidland , t en t e evidence and analy i we aveca ied out ugge t it i impo tant t at:

. T e e i p ovi ion o ig - peed t ain to connectwit t e exi ting We t Coa t Main Line to t eno t o t at Manc e te , Live pool, Gla gowand Edinbu g e vice can eac gain om t eimp oved jou ney time (and o t at t e e i a

ub tantial elea e o capacity ove t e out e nWe t Coa t Main Line) [ 11 ] .

. Connection a e made to allow di ect ig - peedail e vice to ope ate bot to Heat ow and ove

t e C annel Tunnel Rail Link to Eu ope.

. T e e i a connection al o made to t eBi ming am De by line, and t at t e outeno t wa d ove t e Midland Main Line toS e eld and t e No t Ea t i elect i ed o t att i t line can uppo t ig - peed e vicebetween London/Heat ow and Yo k i e and t eNo t Ea t a well a t e No t We t.

[ ] T i i pa ticu la ly impo tant in o de to imp ove e viceo commute om Bucking am i e, Bed o d i e and

No t ampton i e and to ee up line capacity o mo e aileig t e vice .

T e e vice t at could be p ovided by t i tnational ig - peed line p ovide an excellent ea ly

p ead o bene t ac o B itain, a illu t ated.T e e a e ome impo tant point a i ing om t i .

Fi t, t e e i going to be a need o inte ope ableolling tock, to be able to un ove t e We t Coa tMain Line wit out lo ing t e jou ney time advantaget at t e Pendolino feet o e . T i almo t ce tainlymean t e e i a need o a t ain et capable o ope ating at km/ ove new ig - peed line and at km/ + in tilt mode.

T e econd point conce n t e Midland MainLine connection. Two o t e ou Engli egional ai

connection to Heat ow we e abandoned ea lie t iyea , om Du am Tee Valley and Leed /B ad o d. Itwould be po ible, p ovided t e connection a e builtinto Hig Speed No t We t in t e way de c ibed,to eplace t e e lo t connection , wit a e viceconnecting Heat ow wit Newca tle and e vingkey cent e uc a De by, S e eld, Leed , Yo k andDa lington and Du am en route .

T e connection to t e Midland Main Line wouldal o allow a t an e o S e eld London e vice toHig Speed No t We t, elea ing MML capacity oot e e vice . It would al o p ovide S e eld wit ave y a t connection to London: minute compa edwit ove two ou today.

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How the national high-speed network was developed

Cla ity on w at we want ig - peed ail todelive mu t be t e ta ting point in developing a

t ategy. To p ovide a amewo k o t e developmentp og amme, a et o Guiding P inciple wae tabli ed. T e e de c ibe t e pu po e o a national

ig - peed ail netwo k a being:

To p ovide t e t an po t in a t uctu e ande vice needed to ac ieve u tainable economic

competitivene ;

To inc ea e t e capacity o t e national t an po ty tem, elieving p e u e on exi ting netwo k ,

and c eating cope o additional e vice opa enge and eig t on t e exi ting ail netwo k;

To c eate an att active alte native to t e u e o p ivate ca and o t- aul aviation, o t at t ema ket a e o t e e mode w ic ave a mucwo e ca bon/pa enge -km pe o mance t anHSR i dimini ed a t e HSR netwo k develop ;

To timulate egional economie in a way t attake development p e u e o t e wide outea t, wit a ocu on city egene ation; and

To c eate a national HSR netwo k t at can bedeveloped in tage wit a wide appeal and

elevance ac o ocial g oup and t avel ma ket

Greengauge 21 invited ubmi ion o idea andeviewed t e wo k publi ed to date on HSR in

B itain. We al o oug t to lea n t e le on o ot e expe ience and e pecially t ei mi take (wit t e

advantage o ind ig t). Rat e t an ee B itainbelated inte e t in ig - peed ail a a di advantage,we we e dete mined to gain all we could.

A g eat deal i known about t e demand ot avel ac o B itain, by all mode o t an po t. Weknow, too, om ou ma ket e ea c about owpeople in B itain ega d ig - peed ail and w atit appeal will be. T e ta k a been to a e owt e e t avel ma ket will g ow in utu e, and ow

t ey will e pond to va iou con gu ation o ig -peed ail e vice. T en we looked at t e extent o

t e bene t ac o t e economy, including t o et at a i e om t e elea e o capacity on exi tingnetwo k , at t e ac ievement o t e ve guidingp inciple and at t e co t o building and ope atingeac candidate con gu ation. T oug an ite ativep oce , o mulating option and electing t o e

eatu e w ic pe o m be t, we a ived at t e longte m netwo k plan own e e.

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T e ve co idoelected o tudy

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A pa t o t e p oce o ea c ing o t e be tnetwo k ape, con ide ation wa given to va ioucon gu ation . A ingle eve e S- aped no t -

out oute wa ejected, pa tly o t e poo jou ney

time to London om citie u t e no t , and pa tlybecau e o t e co t and con t aint o attempting toa ion a oute no t -ea twa d om Manc e te to

Leed . Suc a c eme would entail t e need to c obot citie wit a HSR line and to c o t e Pennine ,

o w ic a ba e tunnel would be needed. T iwould in p actice need to be e t icted to c. km/ope ation (wit a igni cant co t penalty o pe ap

% i t e ig e peed wa to be etained becau e

o t e inc ea e in tunnel bo e ize needed to add eai p e u e e ect . Suc a peed e t iction u t edet act om uc a no t - out outing.

Ot e netwo k ape we e con ide ed andejected o di e ent ea on . A Y- aped netwo k,

dividing into ea te ly and we te ly oute in t eMidland a t e e ect o placing g eat p e u e ont e t unk ection o line, w ic would need to be

ou -t acked to accommodate t e numbe o HSRe vice . T i would p ove co tly, and o e no

advantage ove con t ucting two epa ate no t -out oute t oug out.

We al o looked at eve e E- aped netwo k, againwit a ingle tem, t i time on a cent al o ea te lyco ido wit epa ate b anc e built we twa d to

e ve Bi ming am and Manc e te . T i a ome

att action , but again would likely t igge in t elong un a need o ou -t acking. It likely p a ing,including t e con t uction o a new oute ac ot e Pennine would make it a de to delive ea lycapacity elie to t e We t Coa t Main Line.

One i ue we con ide ed wa t e value o integ ating wit t e exi ting cla ic ail netwo k,to p ovide t oug HSR e vice to a muc wide

ange o de tination t an would be po ible wit

a ully eg egated HSR netwo k, pa ticula ly in t eea ly p a e o development. We concluded t atconnection between t e HSR and cla ic netwo kwe e vital to t e bu ine ca e, and t i a been

ein o ced by t e nding o Netwo k Rail NewLine tudy [ 1 ].

T e p oce developed wit a e ie o wo k op , ca ied out at upe egion level andal o o eac o t e ve co ido t at we ad

elected o tudy at t e out et.

[ ] Netwo k Rail ound t at a el -contained HSR oute e vingonly London, Bi ming am and Manc e te doe not avea bu ine ca e, but p oviding connection to Live pool,Gla gow and Edinbu g , allowing HSR e vice to beextended ove t e no t e n pa t o t e We t Coa t MainLine, imp oved t e bene t co t atio om . : to . : .4

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Investing in a high-speed rail network willprovide excellent value or money or Britain whenmeasured in economic terms. It delivers in termso providing additional capacity to the transport

system, achieves substantial shi t between themodes o transport, and provides wider economic benefts that avour the regions outside the greatersouth east. HSR also brings about a reduction incarbon rom the transport sector.

HSR demand

Demand o eca t o t e HSR netwo k p opo al

we e p epa ed o Greengauge 21[ 1 ]

owing t at,in it i o eca t t at t e e will be 78 millionpa enge t ip ove t e w ole HSR netwo k, o

, pa enge a day. T e ave age t ip lengt iexpected to be a ound km.

[ ] Hig Speed Rail Development P og amme. P incipalCon ultant Final Repo t, SYSTRA-MVA, Augu t .

Gene ated demand 34.2

Ab t acted om ca 12.6

Ab t acted om ai 29.7

Ab t acted om cla ic ail 101.5

Source o HSR demandMillion pa enge

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Sources o HSR demand

O cou e longe te m demand p ojection outto cannot be ce tain. Ou a e ment u et e be t p ojection available, taking account o di e ing p ojection o g owt ac o t e va iout an po t mode .

Ove a pe iod o 4 - yea , t i lead to omeve y ub tantial inc ea e in demand. But t enlonge di tance t avel in B itain a been g owing

t ongly; ail demand, o in tance, a inc ea ed byove 4 % in t e la t ten yea . And t e evidence omt o e count ie w e e HSR a been adopted i t at

demand continue to g ow yea -on-yea a it elativeadvantage ove ot e t avel mode inc ea e .O t e 78 million pa enge pe annum (mppa)

o eca t o HSR in , ju t ove mppa wouldot e wi e u e conventional ( lowe ) ail e vice ,

mppa would fy, mppa would u e ca and 4mppawould ave not made t e jou ney by any mode. T elatte catego y i known a induced demand.

Fo ai t avel, we a umed t at unde lying demandg owt would continue, at . % pe annum, and t ilead to a nea -t ebling o ai demand ove t e pe iodin que tion. In p actice, o cou e, uc g owt idependent not only on t e expan ion o ai e vicebut al o on t e availability o unway capacity to

andle t em. T i may well be unlikely in p actice,and in w ic ca e t e p ojected dive ion om aineed to be ecogni ed a being a o eca t o t elevel o potential ai demand t at would witc toHSR; a igni cant pa t o t i demand may not avebeen accommodated by t e aviation ecto ove t eyea to , but i o, t e bene t o being able to

accommodate it on HSR i ju t a valuable.

The benefts o a national HSR network

T e di ect bene t o t e national ig - peed ailnetwo k lead to en anced p oductivity and g eateeconomic e ciency. T e e e ect a e mea u ed,

ollowing app ai al tec nique t at ave been u edo many yea , in te m o :

Journey time savings o pa enge w o avet an e ed om ot e mode , in t i ca e p ivateca , ai o cla ic ail e vice . T i i t e la ge t

ingle catego y o bene t and ig lig t t eeconomic value o peeding up t avel time . T e

o eca t include an e timate o t e bene t o g eate punctuality a well a planned o teningo jou ney time ;

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Reductions in crowding on t e ail netwo k om t einc ea ed capacity p ovided t e e a e bene tto pa enge u ing t e HSR e vice and to t o eu ing cla ic ail e vice ;

Benefts rom capacity released wit an expanded eto local and egional ail e vice on t e exi tingnetwo k;

Benefts or rail reight al o ecu ed gene ally byeeing up capacity on oute t at will ot e wi e be

con t ained and unable to accommodate g owt inail eig t;

Less road congestion million ca t ip a eemoved om t e oad netwo k in ;

Reductions in carbon emissions e timated to totalone million tonne pe annum, a i ing in pa t omt e i t om ai to ail, w ic i o eca t to e ultin a eduction o million ai pa enge t ipby . T e i t om ca to ail will al o educeca bon emi ion .

In addition to t e e conventional bene tinco po ated in t e co t bene t gu e p e entedin t i c apte , t e wide economic impact avebeen e timated t e e take into account t e e ecto c ange in acce ibility w ic can ave a u t ebene cial e ect on t e p oductivity o bu ine et oug c ange in employment patte n andagglome ation e ect . T e e wide impact a ee timated to add % o 4 billion to t e t an po tbene t e timated in t e conventional co t-bene tanaly i below [ 2 ].

T e e wide economic bene t a e well di t ibutedac o t e egion : 6% to t e Midland and t e No t

o England, % to t e wide Sout Ea t includingLondon, and 6% to Scotland.T e e will al o be a igni cant numbe o job

c eated o t e con t uction and ope ation o a HSRnetwo k, alt oug we ave not yet attempted toquanti y t i e ect. T e inc ea ed economic activitywill al o p ovide new tax evenue to HM T ea u y.

[ ] T e met odology o calculat ing t e e agglome atione ect i elatively new. T e e timate p e ented e e

ollow cu ent D T gu idance. But it may be t at t e e a eot e wide e ect t at a i e om w at i , a te all, a

undamental c ange to t e national t an po t y tem andone o w ic mo t o t e e app ai al tool a e not de ignedto mea u e. In pa ticula , i HSR lead to a ub tantialc ange in land u e, and in t e development patte n o t e citie ac o t e nation, t en t e e could be ve y

ub tantially g eate wide economic impact . T e e a e ju t no ag eed mean to a e uc e ect at p e ent.

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Regional economicbene t


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0 1,000m1,001m 2,000m

2,001m 5,000m5,001m 10,000m10,001m 20,000m20,001m +

Total regional economic bene tsincluding wider impacts(present value over 60 years)

Wider impacts(present value over 60 years)

4,000m

3,000m

2,000m

1,000m500m

25,035m

2,874m

4,488m

1,493m

548m

861m5,362m

10,569m

6,079m

2,223m

19,795m

The gures on the map represent the totaleconomic bene t to the region.

Represents those economic bene ts that can be

disaggregated geographically, namely bene tsfrom journey time savings, agglomeration andimperfect competition. These represent 66% of total economic bene ts.46


57/80


58/80


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T e e i al o a good value o money ca e o HighSpeed North East , a ig - peed line to Newca tle

e ving t e Ea t Midland and Yo k i e/Humbe , ino de to p ovide t e additional no t - out capacityt at will be needed. I con t ucted a a econd no t -

out line between London and Newca tle, t e BCRi a ound : . T e ca e o extending Hig SpeedNo t Ea t to Scotland cu ently look elatively poo .Howeve , t i additional ection o oute would allow

o many inte -city ig - peed linkage , uc aGla gow Newca tle t at a e not ot e wi e p ovidedand would add to netwo k e ilience and fexibility

o t e c o -bo de oute . A mix o upg ade and new

build ove t i ection, a included in t e netwo kt ategy, would ave a igni cantly lowe co t, at t ep ice o ome exten ion o jou ney time , and webelieve ould be examined a t e candidate be t way

o wa d in t e ove all t ategy.High Speed Trans-Pennine would link Hig Speed

No t We t and Hig Speed No t Ea t and, i con t ucted a a km/ mixed t a c oute, a apo itive economic ca e, albeit a weake one t an t e

ot e oute . T e e ult own in t e table aboveefect only t e HSR e vice element and do not take

into account bene t o mixed u e ope ation ombeing able to ope ate local/ egional pa enge and/o

eig t e vice . T e economic etu n would t e e o ebe bette t an t i in p actice. In addition, t e wideimpact a e p opo tionately la ge o t i oute andi t ey we e included in t e economic app ai al, t ebene t co t atio would imp ove igni cantly.

On High Speed Wales & West , t e ca e o a ullig - peed ailway ove t e w ole co ido i let ong t an o ot e oute . Howeve , t e economic

app ai al indicate t at a taged upg ade o t eoute, p og e ively adding capacity and peeding upig - peed e vice om London to t e Sout We t

and Sout Wale wit a uitable mix o km/ andkm/ ope ation, will p ovide ub tantial bene t .

In ca ying out t e app ai al o t e nationalHSR netwo k, we ave ad to make a umptionabout it p a ing. W ile ou con ultant we e ableto con t uct a clea evidence ba e o a p a ing

t atagem ba ed on compa ing bene t co t atio

o di e ent netwo k element , ou conclu ion onp a ing, a umma i ed at t e end o t e p eviouc apte , take into account in addition t e que tiono w et e a pa ticula p a ing equence could ave,du ing t e inte im tage , any adve e con equence

o a pa ticula egion.We ound t at t e e i ome limited evidence

t at adve e con equence mig t occu , wit anea ly con t uction o HSR to one egion aving a

(ve y) mall but negative wide economic impact(agglome ation e ect) on a egion t at doe not obene t. T at i w y we identi y t e econd p a e aneeding to p og e bot t e Hig Speed No t Ea telement and t e exten ion o Hig Speed No t We tac o t e bo de to e ve Gla gow/Edinbu g , de pitet e latte aving a clea ly t onge bene t co t atio.

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Risk and uncertainty

A wit any o eca ting and app ai al exe ci e,t e e i unce tainty ove w at t e actual outcomewould be. T i i pa ticula ly t ue w en o eca ting o

a into t e utu e and w en a umption on i ueuc a a e level a e dependent on policy deci ion

t at ave not yet been made. W ile t e demando eca t ave been adju ted to take into account t e

likely e ect o t e cu ent ece ion, t e e a e ot ei k t at may mate iali e and o we ave ca ied out

a numbe o en itivity te t .Reducing economic g owt ove t e w ole pe iod

o t e o eca t unde tandably a a igni cante ect on t e o eca t : educing GDP g owt by . %a yea e ult in % lowe HSR demand by .T i educe li etime economic bene t by % ,alt oug t e t ong bu ine ca e mean t at evenunde t i cena io, t e HSR netwo k till delivegood value o money.

We al o te ted t e e ect o applying a % a ep emium to HSR a e compa ed wit ail a e on

t e exi ting netwo k. T i educe HSR demand by% and total bene t by %, but again t e cena io

till ep e ent good value o money. T e netnancial e ect o t e a e p emium i % ig e totalail netwo k evenue becau e o t e lowe level o

ab t action om cla ic ail e vice .

T e e i al o in e ent i k and unce tainty ine timating capital, maintenance and ope ating co tat t i tage o ea ly p oject de nition. To efectt i , in ou cent al ca e we ave made allowance

o optimi m bia by inc ea ing capital co t by 66%and ope ating co t by 4 %, a ecommended by t eDepa tment o T an po t.

Fulflment o Guiding Principles

T e ca e o ig - peed ail i not only aboutt e economic a outlined in c apte , a et o Guiding P inciple wa e tabli ed ea ly on in t e

tudy p og amme. T e HSR netwo k de c ibed e epe o m well again t eac o t e e guiding p inciple .

5

To ac ieveu tainable economic

T e net economic value o a ig - peed netwo k to t e national economyi 6 bn

Guiding Principles Evidence


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u tainable economiccompetitivene

i 6 bn.Mo t citie will be e ved by city cent e tation , ein o cing u tainablepatte n o development.

To inc ea e t e capacityo t e national t an po t

y tem, elieving t eexi ting ail netwo k

T e two no t - out ig - peed line would eac p ovide capacity o6, pa enge an ou , p oviding bene t wo t billion omeduced c owding.

T e bene t a i ing om capacity elea ed on t e cla ic netwo k a ewo t 7 billion.Additional pa enge and eig t e vice could be ope ated on exi ting

ail line , namely t e We t Coa t, Midland, Ea t Coa t and We t AngliaMain Line , toget e wit pa t o t e G eat We te n Main Line and

po ibly t e G eat Ea te n Main Line too.Inten i ed local pa enge e vice could be p ovided ove exi ting linein mo t majo citie e ved by HSR w e e non- topping longe di tance

e vice will be emoved.

To p ovide an a

FastForward a high speed rail strategy for Britain

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