Falsification of election results in Russia? Myths and Statistics Jukka Pietiläinen

Falsification of election results in Russia? Myths and Statistics

Jukka Pietiläinen

PhD., Senior researcher

Aleksanteri-Institute

Aleksanteri Election Seminar 25 January 2012

1) How election fraud can be found out statistically?2) Was there more fraud now than before?3) Why people protested now, and not earlier?

Manipulation of election results which can be shown by statistical methods

Not possible to tell in which particular polling stations fraud took place

After the election several statistical analyses appeared in Russian blogs(as has appeared already in 2007 and 2008)Basic data provided by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation (already since 2003): over 95,000 polling stations

According to Russian bloggers: many irregulaties in election statistics: a strong possibility for systematic falsification of results: • unnormal distribution of turnout in polling stations• unnormal distribution of support for United Russia

Votes for United Russia %

Num

ber o

f pol

ling

stati

ons

Turnout % Share of votes for United Russia %

Irregular distribution of turnout and share for URIndicate that votes have been added for United Russia in significant number of polling stations

(my own figures)

According to blogger Podmoskovnik – Homme de nombres: official results and his estimates

2007 2011 official estim. official

estim.United Russia 64.3% 56.1% 49.3%

34.4%KPRF 11.6% 14.7% 19.2%

26.0%LDPR 8.1% 10.3% 11.7%

15.6%Just Russia 7.7% 9.8% 13.2%

17.5%

Turnout 63.7% 50.2% 60.1% 44.8%

But it is not possible to go back to “real results”

Smaller towns and countryside

Possible explanationCities over 1 million In countryside people vote

more actively (and more often for United Russia)

This explains a part of the strange form of the graphs concerning turnout

Cities 100.000— million

Level of fraud varies from region to region:Highest in many ethnic republics and in South

Lowest in North and North-West

Links with • freedom of press • level of civil society• local political pluralism

Moscow

2007

Turnout 55.1% Turnout 61.3%

2011

Moscow

United Russia 54.1% United Russia 46.6%Strange form in 2011 + discrepancy with exit pollsNew mayor: need to get a good result for United Russia in the capital?

20072011

Why people protested now, and not earlier?Opinion polls among RussiaIn 2007: 16.7% elections free and fair45.6% mostly free and fair14.1% mostly not free and fair4.4% not free and fair at all

Focus group research after elections 2007-2008:“Election fraud has not been massive”, “what difference does it make, whether there is democracy or not” (Wilson 2012).

In 2011:Absolutely honest 5%Mostly honest 30%Mostly not honest 30%Absolutely not honest 15%No answer 20%

(Levada-Centre 28.12.2011)

Why people protested now, and not earlier?

Decline of official support for United Russia

Discontent with Putin’s announcement to return to presidential office

Economic crisis, forest fire crisis: increasing discontent with leadership

Massive scale election fraud also in Moscow

More public discussion of election fraud

More internet users than in 2007-2008

Generation change: more young without Soviet experience

Literature and references:

Wilson, Kenneth: How Russians View Electoral Fairness: A Qualitative Analysis. Europe-Asia Studies 64:1 (2012), 145-168.

Mebane, Walter R. & Kalinin, Kirill: Comparative Election Fraud Detaction. Paper presented at Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Toronto, 2009.

Шень, А.: Выборы и статистика: казус «Единой России» (2009). alexander.shen.free.fr/elections.pdf

Мягков, Михаил, Ордешук, Питер К. & Шакин, Дмитрий: Фальсификации или домыслы: опыт выборов в России и в Украине. Социология: теория, методы, маркетинг. 2005:2, 116-155.

internet magazine Тройский вариант

Russian blogs