Falling Out of the Lead Tracking High-Achievers Through High School and Beyond Christina Theokas, The Education Trust
Falling Out of the Lead Tracking High-Achievers Through High School and Beyond
Christina Theokas,
The Education Trust
The Education Trust
WHO WE ARE The Education Trust works for the high
academic achievement of all students, pre-kindergarten through college.
Our goal is to close the gaps in opportunity and achievement that consign far too many young people--especially those from low-income families or who are black, Latino, or American Indian--to lives on the margins of the American
mainstream.
Research and Data Analysis: We analyze local, state, and national data to build a broader understanding of achievement and opportunity gaps and the actions needed to close them. We draw lessons from schools and districts that are dispelling the myth that that there is little schools can do to help students overcome the barriers of poverty and discrimination.
Policy and Advocacy: We participate actively in national and state policy debates, bringing lessons learned from our research and data analyses to build the case for policies that advance equity and excellence.
WHAT WE DO
Progress at the low end: Over time, race and income gaps at the below basic level have been narrowing.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Pe
rce
nt
Be
low
Bas
ic
Percent Below Basic, 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race
Black
Latino
White
25
8
18
7
We see the same basic trends when we account for poverty status.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Pe
rce
nt
Be
low
Bas
ic
Percent Below Basic, 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race, FRL Eligible
Black
Latino
White
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Pe
rce
nt
Be
low
Bas
ic
Percent Below Basic, 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race, FRL Ineligible
Black
Latino
White
5
9
13
8
Gaps at the proficient level have remained relatively stable, despite improvements among most groups.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Pe
rce
nt
Pro
fici
en
t
Percent Proficient- 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race
Black
Latino
White
22
5
20
7
Progress at the high end: Growth for some, gaps have grown.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Pe
rce
nt
Ad
van
ced
Percent Advanced, 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race
Black
Latino
White4
8
1
Widening race gaps at the advanced level have been pronounced among higher-income students.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Pe
rce
nt
Ad
van
ced
Percent Advanced, 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race, Low-income
Black
Latino
White
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Pe
rce
nt
Ad
van
ced
Percent Advanced, 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race, FRL Ineligible
Black
Latino
White
8
3
Gaps at the high end in High School
The gap at the 90th percentile is larger than the gap at the 10th percentile in 12th grade, the opposite is true in elementary and middle school.
Major Takeaways
#1: Achievement gaps are not the product of uniformly high achievement among some groups vs. uniformly low achievement among others; they exist along the achievement spectrum.
#2: Improvement at the advanced level of performance has been restricted to white and more advantaged students and in high school little progress has been made.
#3: Race gaps do not disappear after considering poverty.
#4: We will never close the achievement gap if we only pursue a bring- the-bottom-up strategy. We need to focus on equity across the achievement spectrum.
Who are we studying?
• Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002)
• Students were first interviewed as sophomores in 2002 and have been followed periodically through 2012.
• Data are representative of roughly 2.5 million high school students.
• Some Definitions: • High-achieving students: Those who scored in the top quartile on a math and
reading assessment in 10th grade
• Socioeconomic status (SES): A Measure of multiple background characteristics, including parental income, parental education, and parental occupational status • High-SES: Highest quartile of the SES distribution
• Low-SES: Lowest quartile of the SES distribution
If students were coming into high school with identical preparation, we would see 25% of each group performing in the top quartile of achievers. But instead, we see this:
41% 39%
17% 14%
6%
11%
32%
35%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Black Hispanic Asian White
Pe
rce
nt
of
Stu
de
nts
Top and Bottom Quartile of Achievement (Reading/Math Composite), by Race, Sophomore Year
Lowest Quartile ofAchievement (10th grade)
Highest Quartile ofAchievement (10th grade)
Troubling gaps exists for socioeconomic status as well.
39%
25%
17%
8% 10%
19%
29%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Low SES 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile High SES
Pe
rce
nt
of
Stu
de
nts
Top and Bottom Quartile of Achievement (Reading/Math Composite), by SES, Sophomore Year
Lowest Quartile ofAchievement (10th grade)
Highest Quartile ofAchievement (10th grade)
Initially low-achieving students were VERY unlikely to meet college-ready benchmarks, levels increase with starting achievement level.
5.8%
11.9%
49.2%
92.4%
3.9% 8.7%
34.3%
80.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Initially low-achieving 2nd quartile 3rd quartile Initially high-achieving
Percent Meeting ACT Benchmarks, by Initial Achievement Level
Composite (>=21)
Math (>=22)
Over half of initially low-achieving students do not attend any postsecondary, compared to 1 in 10 initially high-achieving students.
55%
36%
22% 10%
45%
64%
78% 90%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Lowest achievementQuartile
2nd achievementquartile
3rd achievementquartile
Highest achievementquartile
Ever Attended Postsecondary by Incoming Sophomore Achievement
Yes
No
The Initially low achieving students who go on to postsecondary education are far more likely to attend a 2 year or less college.
74%
60%
42%
19%
15%
16%
14%
9%
10%
20%
32%
35%
1% 4% 13%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Lowest achievementQuartile
2nd achievementquartile
3rd achievementquartile
Highest achievementquartile
Selectivity of 1st Postsecondary Institution by Incoming Sophomore Achievement
4-year highly selective
4-year moderately selective
4-year inclusive
Less than 2-year or 2-year
At a minimum, if students begin high school as high achievers, schools need to ensure these students maintain, even accelerate their skills.
Course-Taking in High School
Initially High-Achieving Students of Color: Black, white, and Hispanic students are about as likely to reach a course beyond Algebra II and
calculus.
1% 4% 10%
4%
13%
15%
16%
57% 48%
47%
24% 27% 33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Black Hispanic White
Highest Math, High Achieving Students, by Race
Calculus
Trig/Precalc/Adv
Algebra II
Alg I/Geometry
No math/low academic
Initially High-Achieving Low-SES Students: Low-SES students are significantly less likely to reach calculus than similarly performing high
SES students.
7% 3%
19%
11%
45%
44%
29%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Low SES (lowest quartile) High SES (highest quartile)
Highest Math, High Achieving Students, by SES
Calculus
Trig/Pre-calc/Adv
Algebra II
Alg I/Geometry
No math or low academic
Results are similar for science course-taking, AP/IB course-taking, and the percent of
students completing an academic concentration.
AP Outcomes
High-achieving students of color and low-SES students pass a smaller share of the AP tests they take than high-achieving white and high-SES students.
36%
51%
68%
45%
73%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Black Latino White Low-SES High SES
Pe
rce
nt
of
AP
Te
sts
Percent of AP Tests that Receive a Score of 3 or Higher, High-Achieving Students, by Race and SES
Academic GPA
Initially high-achieving black and Hispanic students receive lower grades in their academic courses, on average, than
initially similar white and Asian students.
2.9 2.97 3.24
3.09 3.3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Black Hispanic White Low SES High SES
Aca
de
mic
GPA
Academic GPA, High-Achieving Students, by Race and SES
What does this mean for initially high-achieving students? White students are more than 2x as likely as similar black students to earn an A
average in their academic courses.
1% 2% 1%
22% 23%
12%
58% 46%
45%
19% 29%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Black Hispanic White
Academic GPA, High-achieving Students, by Race
A average
B average
C average
D or lower
Grades are a complicated measure, capturing achievement, study habits, participation, and teacher perceptions, among other elements.
Research can help unpack the trends we see:
• One study found that black students receive lower GPAs than their academic preparation would seem to warrant, while the opposite is true of white students. • Teacher beliefs about how hard their students were working explained much
of it.
• A second study found that, in Chicago, high school attendance records and study habits did not explain any of the GPA gap between similarly achieving black and white students.
Source: Wildhagen, Teachers College Record, (2012). Allensworth & Eaton, Chicago Consortium on School Research, (2007).
Postsecondary Outcomes
Beyond high school, initially high-achieving black, Latino, and low-SES students are much less likely than their white and high-SES peers to enroll in selective postsecondary institutions.
19%* 9%
17%
29%*
17%
15%
11%
7%
36% 17%
33%
19% 24% 34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Black Hispanic White
22%
5%
24%*
10%
10%
7%
29%
32%
19%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Low SES High SES
Highly selective 4-year
Moderately selective 4-year
Inclusive/Nonselective4-year
Attended 2 year or < 2year
Did not attendPostsecondary
Selectivity of 1st Postsecondary Institution, High Achieving Students, By Race and SES
What Lies Beneath the Numbers: Student Experiences
High-achieving students have diverse experiences in school. These experiences are shaped by their school’s culture and adults
expectations of them.
“I took a lot of AP courses, but even my regular courses were
rigorous.”
“My calculus wasn’t even
calculus.”
“Crossword Puzzles made up
60% of our grade, and
exams on made up 10.”
ON COURSES
ON Support for Postsecondary
“(The school) gave us a college counselor who we start working with
in 11th grade…They make it a requirement
that we finish our applications in
November, so that we only have to worry
about scholarships and financial aid for the
rest of the year.”
“My school didn’t really tell us what we needed
to do in order to apply to college, so a lot of
students felt overwhelmed.”
So what can schools do? Advice from High Achieving Students
• “Start early:” Offer opportunities in high school that expose students to college-level content and expectations.
• “What holds back a lot of students is people tell them ‘No:’” Communicate positive messages to students about their future possibilities, and help them identify solutions to potential barriers that stand in the way of their postsecondary dreams.
• “My advisor was probably the single greatest resource I had at the time:” Provide students with quality mentorship, particularly during the college search and application process.
• “Being in an environment with other students at or above my ability level…really helped me:” Cultivate a college-going culture such that students feel their peers aspire to similar postsecondary goals.
Charting a Course Forward: District Roles & Responsibilities
As educators, how can we ensure schools aren’t simply reproducing the existing social order and losing the talent that
already exists?
• In your district, what do you believe are the challenges that can lead to inequitable outcomes generally and for similarly prepared students?
• What questions are you asking your school leaders and cabinet on a regular basis? • The questions and data asked for signal what we value
• What do you surface and when?
• Does your cabinet know what to focus on and why?
• Is at least one question always an equity question?
• Do discussions of the achievement gap default to the low end?
Tracking high achievers:
• Does your school/district have a system to identify high achieving students?
• What is the system for monitoring course performance?
• 9th grade is crucial
• What is the distribution of grades for high end students?
• Who is enrolling in AP classes? And which classes in particular?
• What is district policy on:
• Course failures
• Course assignment
Want to learn more?
• Check out the series of reports: • http://www.edtrust.org/high_end_gaps
• http://www.edtrust.org/missing_students
• http://www.edtrust.org/fallingoutofthelead
• Contact: Christina Theoka; [email protected]
• Visit www.edtrust.org