Falling into the Thucydides Trap?...• The Trump Administration has publicly announced it would ignore certain rulings of the World Trade Organization that it deemed to affect US

11.04.2017

#1

Prof. Dr. Sebastian Harnisch Institute of Political Science

Heidelberg University

Falling into the Thucydides Trap?

The United States and the People‘s

Republic in the Trump Era

Talk given at the Graduate Institute of East Asian

Studies, National Chengchi University, Taipeh

11.04.2017

#2



The argument

1. The hypothesis: emerging powers are dangerous!

2. The Probability for a military altercation between the US and

China is limited by three factors:

1. Peace through military deterrence.

2. Peace through shared interests.

3. Peace through common values.

3. None of these factors alone but a mix thereof will most likely

prevent the outbreak of interstate war.

4. The elction of Donald Trump has spread considerable uncertainty,

e.g. whether shared economic interests really effectuate peaceul

relations.

5. However, a detailed discussion of possible and probable future

developments shows that interstate war between China dn the US

remains unlikely.

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#3



Emerging powers are dangerous!

The hypothesis

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#4



The Thucydides Trap

• 400 b.c. the Greek historian Thucydides noticed how the

emergence of Athens vis-à-vis Sparta led to the Peleponesian

war.

• Thucydides identified two factors, beyond the rapid transition of

power relations: 1. The growing demand by Athens for appreciation, co-determination

and co-decision.

2. The fear and mistrust by Sparta, driving its robust defense of the

Status Quo.

• The perception of change in power balance drove both City

states to forge military alliance systems.

• When a dispute between Corinthia u. Corcyra broke out, both

alliance leaders aligned with their smaller alliance members.

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Historical Case Studies of the Thucydides Trap

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The military rise of the PRC I

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Military rise of PRC II: How fast does China close the gap?

• China > EU:

2020/2030

• China > US

2030-2050

• China > NATO

+ Japan

2070-2100

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The economic re-emergence of China

Quelle: Maddison 2006: 656

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China‘s increasing holdings of US Treasury Bonds

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Global attitudes I: China as a Superpower

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Global attitudes II: China as a Superpower

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The counter-argument

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Military deterrence prevents interstate war

• Technological development – Nuclear weapons prevented since 1945 that emerging powers have

challenged nuclear-armed hegemons.

– Increased effectiveness of conventional weapons help defending Great

Powers.

• Geographic positioning

– Framed by two oceans and two weak military powers, it is very hard to

attack the United States from the far-distance.

• Military alliances

– The USA (approx. ca.75) and its Western allies (EU, approx. 30) hold a

large alliance network whereas China has only one formal (North Korea)

and a few informal military allies (e.g. Pakistan).

• Problems of scaling

– The measurement of absolute military expenditures and changing rates of

increase neglects the cumulative effect of expenditure and the differences

in quality.

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Air Craft Carrier: Global distribution 2016

Country Commissioned Planned Under constr. Decommissioned

USA 19 16 3 56

France 4 0 0 0

Japan 3 0 1 20

Italy 2 1 0 0

Australia 2 0 0 0

India 1 5 1 0

UK 1 0 2 ?

Russia 1 2 0 ?

China 1 0 1 0

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Military power should be measured in cumulative expenditures

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Shared economic interests prevent interstate war

• Problems of scaling

– The measurement of trade flows or purchasing powers parities do distort

the emerging trends, overestimating China‘s economic re-emergence.

• Development of economic interdepedence: – The intense economic interdependence between China‘s export-driven

economic development model and the US debt-based Growth model

hinders exploitative economic economic relations.

– The ongoing OBOR-iniative deepens China‘s dependence on markets and

regions that have been avoided by Western investors.

• Economic structure

– China‘s socialist market economy holds considerable risks because it still

features substantial resource malallocation that will probably produce

between 3-5 % p.a. GNP growth, far lower than declared sufficient by PRC

government to uphold employment for young Chinese joining the job

market.

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Shared economic interests prevent interstate war

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China‘s Trade structure conceals low value creation

In Mrd. US Dollar, 2008, Quelle: Moravcsik 2013

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Prognosed trade dependence as percentage of GNP

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China‘s OBOR-Iniative

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Peace through shared values

Source of global regulatory standards Source of constitutional clauses

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11.04.2017

#24



Which influence has the election of Donald

Trump on the probability of military altercation

between the US and the PR China?

11.04.2017

#25



The first presidency by D. Trump

• Personality of the President – Extremely extroverted, potentially narcistic older male who is very

creative and prepared to take risks: – „Successful leaders are characterized by total decisiveness to impose their

vision onto the world. They hold an irrational belief that they can reach the most

outrageous goals. At times, they teeter on the brink of insanity“ (D. Trump.

Think like a Billionaire)

– The „Trump deal“: „We cannot allow China to rape out country.“ The

One China policy may stay in place if China fullfils US demands.

• National Security apparatus

– Zentrale Berater: NSC McMaster, CIA: Mike Pompeo; EPA: Scott Pruit,

China: Peter Navarro + Rex Tillerson take (initially) extreme policy

positions on China.

• Campaign programs – Central foreign policy promises by D. Trump: Rreduction of US global

exposure, revocation and re-negotiation of trade accors; active

immigration prevention: building a wall on US-Mexican border.

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US leadership under D. Trump: Huntingtonian populism

1. Resentment towards the „Washington elite“: starve the beast-strategy

2. America is not beacon upon hill or world‘s policemen.

3. Small government should protect Judeo-Christian Americans on basis

of equality and individualism.

a) In eternal struggle against „radical islam“, US must ban immigration and use

harsh unilateral military force to destroy it.

4. America is an „impoverished nation“: to make it strong again, you

have to make it rich again.

a) Allies (Japan, Germany) and rivals („China is raping our country“) have taken

advantage of weak US elites and overreached America to detriment of „honest

workers“.

5. The „gifted rich“ (himself), who have proven to be socially

superior, should be unleashed (tax cuts). They should bargain

hard with allies and foes to reap „relative gains“ for America.

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11.04.2017

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Secr. Of State Tillerson on South China Sea & PRC reaction

“We’re going to have to

send China a clear signal

that, first, the island-building

stops,” Mr. Tillerson told the

senators. “And second,

your access to those

islands also is not going to

be allowed.”

Hearing on Nomination,

January 11, 2017

• Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu

Kang said “tensions in [the South

China Sea] had lessened and

countries from outside the region

should support efforts toward

stability. "China-U.S. relations are

based on 'non-confrontation, non-

conflict, mutual benefit and win-win

cooperation,' Lu said at a daily

briefing.

• Inofficial reaction by China Daily:

"As many have observed, it would

set a course for devastating

confrontation between China and

the US. After all, how can the US

deny China access to its own

territories without inviting the latter's

legitimate, defensive responses?"

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#28



Conlusion and outlook

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#29



Conclusion and outlook

1. The election of D. Trump will substantially transform US leadership in the world:

it will become weaker, leaner and meaner from a European point of view. 1. Trump administration does not represent the majority of the US electorate.

Domestically it is strongly contested.

2. It does and will not attract substantial international followership by other nations.

Internationally, it is increasingly contested

3. As the administration colidates, professional deficits will rescind as sources of conflict,

but substantial differences will remain with both allies, rivals and enemies.

2. US leadership transformation does not bode well for the stability of the existing

liberal international (economic) order which has served many nations well,

including the United States, China and Germany.

3. US leadership transformation and CPC leadership transformation will interact: 1. Denunciation of TPP helps China‘s economic strategy.

2. US shifting positioning helps Xi Jinping as „protagonist of stability“ in 19th Party

Congress.

3. US-China cooperation and State Department lead on DPRK policy (hopefully)

guarantee crisis stability.

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#30



http://www.uni-hd.de/harnisch

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#31



Controversial publications by advisor to President Trump:

Peter Navarro

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#32



US-China Trade relations under President Trump

• The United States released its 2017 Trade Policy Agenda and 2016

Annual Report of the President of the United States on the Trade

Agreements Program which sets four broad priorities – – (1) defending US national sovereignty over trade policy;

– (2) strictly enforcing US trade laws;

– (3) using all possible sources of leverage to encourage other countries to open their

markets to US exports of goods and services…and

– (4) negotiate new and better trade deals with countries in key markets around the

world.” (Agenda, at p. 2.)

• The Trump Administration has publicly announced it would ignore

certain rulings of the World Trade Organization that it deemed to affect

US sovereignty, withdrew from the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership,

and demands swift renegotiation of the North American Free Trade

Agreement (NAFTA).

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/reports/2017/AnnualReport/AnnualReport2017.pdf



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/03/01/trump-may-ignore-wto-in-major-shift-of-u-s-trade-policy/?utm_term=.d8466e2d0029



https://www.nytimes/com/2017/01/23/us/politics/tpp-trump-trade-nafta.html





http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/trump-nafta-trade-renegotiation-234544

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/trump-nafta-trade-renegotiation-234544

11.04.2017

#33



Asia Society 2017 Report

• In addressing these new challenges, the incoming

administration should be mindful of lessons from the past. This

is especially true on the sensitive question of Taiwan, where it

would be exceedingly dangerous to unilaterally abandon our

long-standing “One China policy”—an understanding that has

served as the basis for the US relationship with China, helped

protect Taiwan’s security, prosperity, and democracy, and

preserved peace and stability in Asia for almost four decades.

No national interest is furthered by abandoning or conditioning

this policy on other issues. To do so would very likely end up

increasing Taiwan’s vulnerabilities, destabilizing the Asia-Pacific

region, and jeopardizing broad US interests.

11.04.2017

#34



1990, Trump Interview with Playboy: Alliances

• “We Americans are laughed at around the world for

losing a hundred and fifty billion dollars year after

year, for defending wealthy nations for nothing,

nations that would be wiped off the face of the earth

in about fifteen minutes if it weren’t for us. Our “allies”

are making billions screwing us.”

11.04.2017

#35



Suggested Reading

• Abrajano, Marisa, and Zoltan L. Hajnal. 2017. White Backlash: Immigration, Race, and American Politics. Princeton,

NJ: Princeton University Press.

• Anton, Michael 2017: America and the Liberal International Order, in: American Affairs Volume I, Number 1 (Spring

2017): 113–25.

• Cha, Taesuh. 2017. "The Return of Jacksonianism: the International Implications of the Trump Phenomenon." The

Washington Quarterly 39 (4):83-97.

• Crooke, Alastair. 2017. "Deciphering Trump’s Opaque Foreign Policy." World Affairs, Last Modified February 13,

2017, accessed March 10, 2017. http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/content/opinion-deciphering-trump’s-

opaqueforeign-policy.

• de Luce, Dan, and Paul Mcleary. 2017. "Trump’s Ramped-Up Bombing in Yemen Signals More Aggressive Use of

Military." Foreign Policy, Last Modified March 9, 2017, accessed March 11, 2017.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/09/trumps-ramped-upbombing-in-yemen-signals-more-aggressive-use-

ofmilitary/?utm_content=bufferd155e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com& utm_campaign=buffer.

• Diamond, Jeremy. 2016. "Trump: 'We can't continue to allow China to rape our country'." CNN, Last Modified May 2,

2016, accessed March 10, 2017. http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/01/politics/donald-trump-china-rape/.

• Fehl, Caroline, and Marco Fey. 2017. "America first": Die Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik der USA unter Präsident

Trump. HSFK Report 1. Accessed March 10, 2017.

doi:https://www.hsfk.de/fileadmin/HSFK/hsfk_publikationen/report0117.pdf.

• Hochschild, Arlie Russell. 2016. Strangers in Their Own Land: Anger and Mourning on the American Right. New

York: New Press.

• Kahl, Colin, and Hal Brands. 2017. Trump's Grand Strategic Train Wreck. Foreign Policy. Accessed March 10, 2017.

doi:http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/31/trumps-grandstrategic-train-wreck/.

• Kazin, Michael. 2016. "Trump and American Populism: Old Whine, New Bottles." Foreign Affairs 95 (6):17-24.

11.04.2017

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Suggested Literature

• Landler, Mark. 2017. "Trump’s Falsehoods Make Foreign Leaders Ask: Can We Trust Him?". New York

Times, Last Modified January 31, 2017, accessed March 10, 2017.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/31/us/politics/trump-falsehoods-foreign-leadersdiplomacy.html.

• Mead, Walter Russell. 2017. "The Jacksonian Revolt." Foreign Affairs 96 (2): 2-7.

• Moffitt, Benjamin. 2016. The Global Rise of Populism: Performance, Political Style, and Representation.

Stanford: Stanford University Press.

• Paletta, Damian. 2017. "Trump budget expected to seek historic contraction of federal workforce." The

Washington Post, Last Modified March 12, 2017, accessed March 10, 2017.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/through-his-budget-abottom-line-look-at-trumps-new-

washington/2017/03/12/29739206-05be-11e7-b9faed727b644a0b_story.html?utm_term=.7b6bd212ba5f.

Patrick, Stewart M. 2017. "Trump and World Order." Foreign Affairs 96 (2):52-57. Paulson, John. 2017.

"Trump and the Economy." Foreign Affairs 96 (2):8-11.

• Rathbun, Brian. 2013. "Steeped in International Affairs?: The Foreign Policy Views of the Tea Party."

Foreign Policy Analysis 9:21–37.

• Rojecki, Andrew. 2017. "Trumpism and the American Politics of Insecurity." The Washington Quarterly 39

(4):65-81.

• Roubini, Nouriel. 2017. “America First” and Global Conflict Next. Project Syndicate. Accessed March 10,

2017. doi:https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trumpisolationism-undermines-peace-worldwide-

by-nouriel-roubini-2017-01.

• Schell, Orville/Shirk, Susan L. (eds.) 2017: Us Policy Towards China. Recommendations for a New

Administration, New York: Asia Society,

• Wright, Thomas. 2016. The 2016 presidential campaign and the crisis of US foreign policy. Lowy Institute

for International Affairs. Accessed March 10, 2017. doi:https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/2016-

presidential-campaign-and-crisisus-foreign-policy.

Falling into the Thucydides Trap?...• The Trump Administration has publicly announced it would ignore certain rulings of the World Trade Organization that it deemed to affect US

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