Sakalihasan Natzi MD,PhD Department of Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery University hospital of Liège, Experimental Research Center of the Cardiovascular Surgery Department, GIGA - Cardiovascular Science Unit, University of Liège, Liège, BELGIUM Factors influencing the mortality rate in AAA rupture. Preliminary results of Liege AAA (single center) rupture Study
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Factors influencing the mortality rate in AAA rupture ... · Sepsis (yes , no) Deep wound (yes , no) 8. Time limit 4 Service mobile d’urgence et de réanimation SMUR, hospital)
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Sakalihasan Natzi MD,PhDDepartment of Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery
University hospital of Liège,
Experimental Research Center of the Cardiovascular Surgery Department, GIGA-Cardiovascular Science Unit, University of Liège,
Liège, BELGIUM
Factors influencing the mortality rate in AAA rupture. Preliminary results of Liege AAA
(single center) rupture Study
Factors promoting the aortic rupture
INFLAMMATION
GENETICS & FAMILIAL
SMOKING
GENDER
Aneurysm rupture occurs when the mechanical stress acting on the wall exceeds the strength of the wall
Abdominal Aortic AneurysmRupture
• Mortality rate for patients with ruptured AAA is 65%−85%
• Approximately half of deaths attributed to rupture occur before the patient reaches the surgical room
Lederle FA, et al. N Engl J Med. 2002;346:1437-1444 ;Sakalihasan N, et al. Lancet. 2005;365:1577-1589
Material
105 concecutive patientsadmitted between 2004 and 2013 for ruptured AAA.
1.Demography 5 Year of admissionSeason of admissionAge of the patient at amission (years)Sex (Male , female)Body mass index (BMI, kg/m²)
2. Medical background 24Known AAA (<1 an, 1-5 ans, >5 ans, inconnu)familial history of AAA (yes,no )Tabac use (current ,never, past smokers )Cholesterol (yes,no)Anti-cholesterol treatment (yes , no)Artérial hypertension (AHT) (yes, no)anti-AHT (yes , no)Diabetes (yes, no)Anti-diabetic treatment (yes, no)Problème cardiac problems (yes, no)Type of cardiac problem ( type of pathology :ischemia, valvular, rythmic, dilated myocardiopathy,multiples cardiopathy)
8. Time limit 4Service mobile d’urgence et de réanimation SMUR, hospital)Delay first sign and diagnosis (h)Delay diagnostic – surgical management (min)Delay admission CHU – Intervention (min)
Methods IIRetrospective analysis of 101 parameters
10. Issue 8Died (yes, no)Preoperative Death (yes , no) Peroperative death (yes, no)Postoperative death (tes, no)Postoperative death < 30 days (yes, no)Postoperative death >30 jdays (yes, no)Causes of death (MOF , hypovolemic shock or respiratoiry distress , arrêt cardias arrest , , sepsis, other)Raisons to not operated (alteration of general satatus, deep hypovolelic shock , cardiac arrest , refus, death before surgery)
• Death at admssion,
• Death during surgery
• Death at 30days (patients underwent surgeryand alive)
• Global mortality (admission-30 days )
Methods III
Results:
Demography: 88 male (83.8%), 17 Female (16.2%)Mean age 75.5 ± 10 years (51 – 99)47.7% of the patients presented ponderal excess
40 Patients65 Patients
SMUR (Service Mobile d’Urgence et de Réanimation)
Anatomic and procedural parameters(N=105)
Comparison of parameters between patients operated alive and deceased at 30 days by logistic regression (N = 69)
*Régression logistique ordinale (p=0.027)
Fisher exact test
Significant Predictors of mortality in the patients (n:86)
Elderly patients, in particular octogenariansBMI - categories <18 kg / m² and ≥ 40 kg / m² Known aneurysm for more than 5 yearsAnti-aggregating / anticoagulant drugsHigh creatinine valuesLow HCO3 valuesLow GFR valuesRenal failureMesenteric ischemiaRespiratory distress…..
Summary
Equation I:At the multivariate level
If stepwise regression is used, including only significant variables at P <0.05
Risk score (Y) = -3.11 + 1.65 x (mesenteric ischemia)* + 1.51 x (anticoagulants)* + 1.39 x (renal insufficiency)*
Probability of 30 days mortality = exp (Y) / [1 + exp (Y)]
Y = -3.11 + 1.65 + 1.51+ 1.39 = 1.44
the probability of death at 30 days is 0.808 or 81%
* Coefficient of variation
Equation II:
• Mesenteric ischemia (p = 0.030), anticoagulants (p = 0.029), pulsatile mass (p = 0.027) and creatinine (p = 0.040).
The equation is :
Probability of 30 days mortality = 4.41 + 1.81 x (mesenteric ischemia) + 1.59 x (anticoagulants) + 1.85 x (pulsating mass) + 0.108 x (creatinine) = 81%
If no factor is present, the probability of death is 4.3%
total familial sporadic
incidence of rupture 14,6% 32% 8.7% p < 0.0001*(313 probands,1995)
incidence of rupture 5,9% 8% 2.4% p < 0.0001**( 618 probands,2014)
* Verloes P, Sakalihasan N, Koulischer L, Limet R. J Vasc Surg 1995** Sakalihasan N et al; Annals of Vascular Surgery (2014), doi: 10.1016/j.avsg.2013.11.005.
Factors promoting the aortic rupture(Single center (CHU) experiences)
Asymptomatic Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm
2.5 – 2.9cm 4.5 - 5.0 cm 5.0 - 5.5 cm >5.5 cm
Follow-upUS every5 years
Follow-upUS every 3months for women, 6months formen
MenFollow-upUS every 3- 6 months
Women *SurgeryOpen or EVAR
Surgery*Open or EVAR
3.0 - 3.9 cm 4.0 - 4.5 cm
Follow-upUS every 24-36 months
Follow-upUS every 6-12 months
*if surgically fitEarlier intervention may be considered