-
Why Rate?Factors Driving Rate in the
Commercial P/C Insurance Industry
Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCUClinical Associate Professor of
Finance, Risk Management & Insurance
Darla Moore School of Business ¨ University of South
[email protected] ¨ 803.777.6782
Chubb Commercial Market ForumChicago, IL
July 10, 2019
http://moore.sc.edu
-
The Case for Rate: Outline n P/C Financial Overview
w History and forecasts
n Profitability and Growth Trends
n Economic Overview & Impacts on the P/C Insurance Industryw
Influence on P/C exposure and premium growthw Trade wars, P/C
insurance and pricing pressure
n Financial Market Performancew Interest rates, pricing and
profitability
n Commercial Lines Performance Overvieww Underwriting
performance and rate trends, by key line
n Catastrophe Loss Trends/Reinsurance Market Pressure
n Tort, Cyber Pressures
n Q&A
-
3
P/C Insurance Industry Financial Overview
CATS, Non-CAT Underwriting Losses Impacted Insurer Balance
Sheets
Industry Remains Strong but Continued Strength Requires
Improved Profitability3
-
P/C Industry Net Income After Taxes, 1991–2019Fn 2005 ROE= 9.6%n
2006 ROE = 12.7%n 2007 ROE = 10.9%n 2008 ROE = 0.1%n 2009 ROE =
5.0%n 2010 ROE = 6.6%n 2011 ROAS1 = 3.5%n 2012 ROAS1 = 5.9%n 2013
ROAS1 = 10.2%n 2014 ROAS1 = 8.4%n 2015 ROAS = 8.4%n 2016 ROAS =
6.2%n 2017 ROAS =5.0%n 2018 ROAS = 8.0%
•ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding
Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 8.2% ROAS in
2014, 9.8% ROAS in 2013, 6.2%ROAS in 2012, 4.7% ROAS for 2011, 7.6%
for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009; Sources: A.M. Best, ISO.
$14,178
$5,840
$19,316
$10,870 $20,598
$24,404 $36,819
$30,773
$21,865
$3,046
$30,029
$62,496
$3,043
$35,204
$19,456 $33,522
$63,784
$55,870
$56,826
$42,924
$36,813
$59,994
$36,600
$38,501
$20,559
$44,155
$65,777
-$6,970
$28,672
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Net income is up sharply in 2018 due to lower CATs
and the TCJA
$ Millions
-
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19F
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry,
1975 – 2019F
Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011-18 figures are estimates
based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2014 exclude mortgage and
financial guaranty insurers.Source: NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best, USC RUM
Center.
1977:19.0% 1987:17.3%
1997:11.6% 2006:12.7%
1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%
10 Years10 Years
9 Years
ROEs in 2017 plunged to their lowest levels since 2008 but
rebounded in 2018 due to lower CATs and the TCJA.
ROE
1975: 2.4%
2013 9.8%
2017 5.0%
2015: 8.4%
2019F 4.8%
2018 8.0%
-
6
ROE: Property/Casualty Insurance by Major Event, 1987–2019F
*Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guarantee in 2008 – 2014.
Sources: ISO, Fortune; A.M. Best (2018E-2019F); USC RUM Center.
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1819F
P/C Profitability Is Influenced Both by
Cyclicality and Volatility
Hugo
Andrew, Iniki
Northridge
Lowest CAT Losses in 15 Years
Sept. 11
Katrina, Rita, Wilma
4 Hurricanes
Financial Crisis*
(Percent)
Record Tornado Losses
Sandy
Low CATs
Harvey, Irma, Maria,
CA Wildfires
-
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18
P/C Insurance ROE vs. Fortune 500, 1975–2018*
*2018 Fortune 500 figure is an estimate.Profitability = P/C
insurer ROEs. 2011-18 figures are estimates based on ROAS data.
Note: Data for 2008-2014 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty
insurers.Source: NAIC, ISO, Fortune.
1977:19.0% 1987:17.3%
1997:11.6% 2006:12.7%
1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%
ROE
1975: 2.4%
2013 9.8%
2017 5.0%
2018 8.0%
AverageFortune 500: 13.3%P/C Insurance: 9.0%
2018* 14.5%
-
8
Professor Hartwig’sInsurance Quiz!
Q1: Since 1950, under which President was the US P/C insurance
industry the most profitable (in terms of ROE)?
8
Q2: Since 1950, under which political party has the US P/C
insurance industry been the most profitable, on average (in terms
of ROE)?
-
15.10%8.93%
8.65%8.35%8.33%8.20%
7.98%7.68%
6.98%6.97%
6.50%5.43%
5.03%4.83%4.68%
4.43%3.55%
16.43%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
CarterReagan II
NixonClinton I
G.H.W. BushG.W. Bush II
Obama IIClinton IIReagan I
Nixon/FordTruman
TrumpEisenhower IEisenhower II
G.W. Bush IObama I
JohnsonKennedy/Johnson
*Truman administration ROE of 6.97% based on 3 years only,
1950-52.Source: University of South Carolina, Risk and Uncertainty
Management Center.
OVERALL RECORD: 1950-2018*
Democrats 7.61%Republicans 7.75%
Party of President has marginal bearing on profitability of P/C
insurance industry
P/C Insurance Industry ROE by Presidential Administration,
1950-2018*
-
10
P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2019E
* Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers
2008--2014. Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4,
2011=108.1; 2012:=103.2; 2013: = 96.1; 2014: = 97.0.; 2017 (est.)
based on actual 104.1 through Q3 (Q3 combined ratio alone was
110.7). Sources: A.M. Best, ISO (2014-2016); Figure for 2017 from
ISO.
95.7
99.3101.1
106.5
102.5
96.4 97.097.8
100.7101.2
103.7
99.2101.0
92.6
100.898.4
100.1
107.5
115.8
90
100
110
120
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19F
As Recently as 2001, Insurers Paid Out
Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned Premiums Relatively
Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases
Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net
Losses
Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases
Higher CAT
Losses, Shrinking Reserve
Releases, Toll of Soft
Market
Sandy Impacts
Lower CAT
Losses
Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6)
Avg. CAT Losses,
More Reserve Releases
Cyclical Deterioration
Sharply higher CATs are driving
large underwriting losses and
pricing pressure
2019 Combined Ratio Est.101.2
-
11
Policyholder Surplus (Capacity), 2006:Q4–2018:Q4
Sources: ISO, A.M .Best; Center for Risk and Uncertainty
Management, University of South Carolina.
($ Billions)
$487.1
$496.6
$512.8
$521.8
$478.5
$455.6
$437.1
$463.0 $490.8
$511.5 $540.7
$530.5
$544.8
$559.2
$559.1
$538.6
$550.3
$567.8
$583.5
$586.9
$607.7
$614.0
$624.4 $653.4
$671.6
$673.9
$675.2
$674.2
$673.7
$676.3
$700.9
$717.0 $750.7 $781.5
$742.2
$662.0
$570.7
$566.5
$505.0
$515.6
$517.9
$400$450$500$550$600$650$700$750$800$850
06:Q4
07:Q1
07:Q2
07:Q3
07:Q4
08:Q1
08:Q2
08:Q3
08:Q4
09:Q1
09:Q2
09:Q3
09:Q4
10:Q1
10:Q2
10:Q3
10:Q4
11:Q1
11:Q2
11:Q3
11:Q4
12:Q1
12:Q2
12:Q3
12:Q4
13:Q1
13:Q2
13:Q3
13:Q4
14:Q1
14:Q2
14:Q3
14:Q4
15:Q2
15:Q4
16:Q1
16:Q4
17:Q2
17:Q4
18:Q3
18:Q4
Financial Crisis
Surplus (Capacity) as of 12/31/18 at $742.7B was still close to
its
all-time record high
2010:Q1 data includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding
company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance
business .
Drop due to near-record 2011 CAT losses
Capacity/Capital “shocks” typically do not on their own drive a
sustained firming of the
pricing environment. Insurers need to generate risk-appropriate
ROEs.
Surplus dropped by $8.5B or 1.1%
in 2018
-
Net Written Premium Growth (All P/C Lines): 2006-2019F
Sources: A.M. Best (2006-2013, 2019F), ISO (2014-18).
3.8%
0.0%
-0.4%
-4.5%
0.8%
3.2%4.2%4.3%4.2%3.9%4.1%
2.8%
4.6%
10.8%
3.6%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19F
Total Net Written Premiums Show a Return to Trend for 2019
-
13
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19F
Net Premium Growth (All P/C Lines): Annual Change,
1971—2019F
(Percent)1975-78 1984-87 2000-03
*Figure is actual 2018:9M vs. 2017:9M change adjusted for
affects of the TCJA of 2017. Shaded areas denote “hard market”
periodsSources: A.M. Best (1971-2013, 18E, 19F), ISO (2014-17).
Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline
Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year
Decline Since 1930-33.
2019F:3.6%2018E: 10.8%
2017: 4.6%2016: 2.7%2015: 3.5%2014: 4.2
2013: 4.4%2012: +4.2%
Outlook2019F: 3.6%2020F: 3.8%
-
15
Growth in Net Written Premium: Personal vs. Commercial, 2015 –
2018*
5.7%
3.1%
-1.4%
2.7%
6.6%
2.7%1.8%
4.1%
6.7%5.8%
4.8%5.8%
3.5%
1.5%
3.3%
5.3%
-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%
Personal Lines Predominating
Diversified Commercial LinesPredominating**
All Insurers
2015 2016 2017 2018*
Annual Change in NWP
The divergence in growth between personal and commercial lines
remains large
*2018 is an estimate based on actual data through Q4:2018.
Commercial lines figure has been adjusted from actual value of
19.3% to account for distortionary affects from the TCJA 2017,
which impacted reinsurance utilization, largely in the commercial
segment.
Source: ISO. University of South Carolina Risk and Uncertainty
Management Center.
Commercial lines growth has been
much weaker than personal lines
-
Net Written Premium, by Line: 2017 vs 2018*
$222
.2
$82.
3
$50.
1
$39.
8
$34.
1
$26.
4
$30.
6
$67.
2
$240
.4
$88.
2
$62.
4
$43.
2
$37.
4
$30.
1
$35.
7
$74.
2
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Personal Auto Homeowners Other Liability WorkersComp
CommercialMulti-Peril
Fire & Allied CommercialAuto
All OtherLines
20172018
NWP ($Bill)
Total P&C Industry2017 = $552.8B2018 = $611.6B
Change = +10.6% (+$58.8B)
* 2018 figure is preliminary. Figure is impacted by Tax Cuts and
Jobs Act of 2017.Sources: NAIC; NCCI; Risk and Uncertainty
Management Center, University of South Carolina.
Commercial Lines growth in 2018 was materially
impacted by the TCJA 2017
+8.2%
+7.2% +24.6%+8.5% +9.7% +14.0% +16.7%
+10.4%
-
109.
411
0.2
118.
810
9.5 1
12.5
110.
210
7.6
104.
110
9.7
110.
2
102.
5 105.
491
.194
.510
4.4
100.
7 103
.810
7.3
105.
496
.396
.095
.299
.010
2.1
102.
010
2.7
102.
0
111.
1
112.
3
122.
3
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
18E
Com
mer
cial
Lin
es C
ombi
ned
Rat
io
*2007-2012 figures exclude mortgage and financial guaranty
segments.Source: A.M. Best (1990-2019F).
Commercial Lines Combined Ratio, 1990-2019F*Commercial lines
underwriting
performance deteriorated materially in 2017 as record CATs and
rising loss cost trends took there toll. Little improvement is
expected in 2018 or 2019
17
-
Combined Ratio, by Line: 2017 vs 2018*
103107
101
89
108
125
111
98
104
98
104 102
83
107 109 108
92
99
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
PersonalAuto
Homeowners OtherLiability
WorkersComp
CommercialMulti-Peril
Fire & Allied CommercialAuto
All OtherLines
All P&CLines
20172018
NWP ($Bill)
* 2018 figure is preliminary.Sources: NAIC; NCCI; Risk and
Uncertainty Management Center, University of South Carolina.
Underwriting performance
remains challenged in
many key commercial lines
-
19
Merger & Acquisition Activity
M&A Activity Picked Accelerated in 2018
Many Carriers Remain Unsatisfied with Organic Growth
Opportunities
19
-
20
U.S. INSURANCE MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS,P/C SECTOR, 1994-2018
(1)
$5,100
$11,534
$8,059
$30,873
$19,118
$40,032
$1,249
$486
$20,353
$425
$9,264
$35,221
$13,615
$16,294
$3,507 $6,419
$12,458
$4,685
$4,393
$6,723
$39,970
$10,665
$7,404
$17,068
$55,825
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 17
Tran
sact
ion
valu
es
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Num
ber of transactions
($ Millions)
(1) Includes transactions where a U.S. company was the acquirer
and/or the target.
Source: Conning proprietary database.
M&A activity in the P/C sector in 2015 totaled $40B, its
highest level
since 2000, but fell sharply in 2016/17 in
dollar terms
Major 2018 Deals:AIG/Validus: $5.56B
Axa/XL: $15.3BApollo/Aspen: $2.6B
-
21
U.S. INSURANCE MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS:DISTRIBUTION, 1996-2018
(1)
$1,934
$2,720
$55,903
$1,633
$542
$689
$446
$60
$212
$944
$15,205
$5,812
$615 $1,727
$2,271
$4,225 $8,246
$2,581
$18,695
$4,204
$6,594
$7,085
$7$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18
Tran
sact
ion
valu
es
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Number of transactions
($ Millions)
(1) Includes transactions where a U.S. company was the acquirer
and/or the target.
Source: Conning proprietary database.
M&A activity in the Distribution sector in 2018 totaled
$7.1B, up (7.4%) from $6.6B in 2017; The number of
deals hit a record high 614 in 2018
Major 2018 Deals:Marsh/JLT: $5.62B
(4.3B Sterling)
-
INVESTMENTS: THE NEW REALITY
Investment Performance Is a Key Driver of Insurer
Profitability
The Fed’s New Dovish Turn, Oval Office Pressure Don’t Bode Well
for Insurers
Obstacles to Growing Investment Earnings Are Mounting
-
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
,*Through July 9, 2019.Source: NYU Stern School of Business:
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html;
Center for Risk and Uncertainty Management, University of South
Carolina
Tech Bubble Implosion
Financial Crisis
Annual Return
Energy Crisis
2019: +18.9%*2018: -6.2%
S&P 500 Index Returns, 1950–2019*
Fed Raises Rate
Stock markets rose sharply following the 2016 election and
continued to rise
throughout 2017, but trade, growth concerns and rising interest
rates took a toll in late
2018 and in April – early June 2019 as well
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html
-
Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Income:
2000–2018
$38.9$37.1$36.7
$38.7
$54.6
$51.2
$47.1$47.6$49.2
$48.0$47.3$46.4$47.2$46.6$48.9
$55.3
$39.6
$49.5$52.3
$30
$40
$50
$60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18*
Due to persistently low interest rates, investment income fell
in 2012, 2013 and 2014 but showed a small (1.7%) increase in
2015—though 2016 experienced
another decline. Up 5.1% in 2017 and 13.1% in 2018
*2018 figure is distorted by provisions of the TCJA of 2017.1
Investment gains consist primarily of interest and stock dividends.
Sources: ISO; University of South Carolina, Center for Risk and
Uncertainty Management.
($ Billions)Investment income is slowly
recovering. 2018 figure overstates improvement due to
provision of the TCJA 2017
-
Net Investment Yield on Property/Casualty Insurance Invested
Assets, 2007–2018*
4.4
4.0
4.6 4.5
3.7 3.8 3.73.4
3.7
3.2 3.1 3.13.3
4.6
4.23.9
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
The yield on invested assets remains low relative to pre-crisis
yields. Fed rate increases beginning in late 2015 have pushed up
some yields, albeit
quite modestly. Shrinking of Fed’s balance sheet should help
too.
Sources: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market
Intelligence; 2017 figure is from ISO.
(Percent)
Investment yield in 2017 was down about 150 BP
from pre-crisis levels
-
26
Professor Hartwig’sInsurance Quiz #2!
Q: All else equal, when interest rates fall, the price of
insurance:
a. Will generally fallb. Will generally risec. Will likely
remain approximately unchangedd. There is no meaningful correlation
between
interest rates and insurance pricing26
-
INTEREST RATE ANDINFLATION TRENDS
Persistently Low Interest Rates, Elevated Medical Inflation
Exert
Pressure on P/C Insurance Rates
-
US Treasury Security Yields:A Long Downward Trend,
1990–2019*
*Monthly, constant maturity, nominal rates, through June
2019.Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm. National
Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance
Information Institute.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
'90 '91 '92 '93'94 '95 '96 '97 '98'99 '00 '01 '02 '03'04 '05 '06
'07'08 '09 '10 '11 '12'13 '14 '15 '16 '17'18 '19
Recession2-Yr Yield10-Yr Yield
Yields on 10-Year US Treasury Notes have been essentially
below 5% for more than a decade
Since roughly 80% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 10-year or
shorter durations, most P/C insurer portfolios will have
low-yielding bonds for years to come.
Fed tightening has pushed ST rates higher in late 2018,
but fears of a weakening economy have narrowed the
2-10 yield spread substantially. These factors
will pressure insurer earnings and thus rates in
the months and years ahead.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm
-
Interest Rate Forecasts: 2019F–2025F
2.8%2.5% 2.6%
3.1% 3.2%3.4% 3.5% 3.5%
2.4% 2.2%2.5% 2.6% 2.7%
2.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
19F 20F 21F 22F 23F 24F 25F 19F 20F 21F 22F 23F 24F 25F
A full normalization of interest rates is unlikely until the
mid-2020s, nearly 20 years after the onset of the financial
crisis.
Yield (%)
Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (6/19 for 2019 and 2020;
for 2021-2025 3/19 issue); University of South Carolina.
3-Month Treasury 10-Year TreasuryThe Fed’s pause in
rate hikes, its decision to
maintain large bond holdings and a weaker global economy are
suppressing
interest rates—again. Significant political pressure
from President Trump could be a
factor as well. The resumption of monetary policy easing creates
pressure on p/c insurance rates.
-
Annual Inflation Rates, (CPI-U, %),1990–2020F
2.8 2.6
1.51.9
3.33.4
1.3
2.52.3
3.0
3.8
2.8
3.8
-0.4
1.6
3.2
2.11.51.6
0.1
1.3
2.12.4
1.92.1
2.92.4
3.23.0
5.14.9
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19F20F
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic
Indicators, 6/19 (forecasts).
Inflation remains remarkably tame despite a tight US labor
market, modest economic growth, rising energy prices,
tariff-induced price increases and a
rapidly rising federal budget deficit.
Annual Inflation Rates (%)
Inflation peaked at 5.6% in August 2008 on high energy and
commodity crisis. The recession and the collapse of the
commodity bubble reduced inflationary pressures in 2009/10
Inflationary expectations are
consistent with the Fed’s 2% target,
but trade war could increase
inflationary pressure
Trade War Alert
A sustained trade war with China could
increase inflation by 0.1 to 0.4 points.
Mexico tariffs will intensify inflationary pressures
-
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18
Change in Medical CPI CPI-All Items
Medical Cost Inflation vs. Overall CPI, 1995–2018
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Average Annual Growth Average1995 – 2018
Healthcare: 3.4%Overall: 2.2%
Medical inflation typically exceeds inflation in the
overall economy
-
THE ECONOMY
The Strength of the Economy Has Always Influenced Growth in
Insurers’ Exposure
Base Across Most Lines
The Links Between the Economy and the P/C Insurance Industry Are
Strengthening
-
Length of US Business Cycles, 1929-Present*
43
13 8 11 10 8 10 1116
616
8 819
50
80
3745
39
24
106
36
58
12
92
120
73
121
0102030405060708090
100110120130
Aug.1929
May1937
Feb.1945
Nov.1948
July1953
Aug.1957
Apr.1960
Dec.1969
Nov.1973
Jan.1980
Jul.1981
Jul.1990
Mar.2001
Dec.2007
ContractionExpansion Following
Duration (Months)
Month Recession Started
Average Duration*Recession = 13.4 MonthsExpansion = 63.6
Months
* As of July 2019, inclusiveSources: National Bureau of Economic
Research; Risk and Uncertainty Management Center, University of
South Carolina.
The current economic
expansion (as of July 2019)
is now the longest in US history (began
July 2009)
-
US Real GDP Growth*
* Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators.Source:
US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 6/19; Center
for Risk and Uncertainty Management, University of South
Carolina.
2.7%
1.8%
-1.3%
-2.8%
2.5%
2.2% 2.7%
4.5%
0.8% 1.4%3.5%
2.1%
1.2%3.1% 3.2%
2.9%
2.2%4.2%
3.4%
2.2% 3.1%
1.7% 1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6% 1.7%1.6% 2.0%
1.8%
4.1%
1.1% 1.8% 2.5% 3.6%
3.1%
-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
20
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1516
:1Q
16:2
Q16
:3Q
16:4
Q17
:1Q
17:2
Q17
:3Q
17:4
Q18
:1Q
18:2
Q18
:3Q
18:4
Q19
:1Q
19:2
Q19
:3Q
19:4
Q20
:1Q
20:2
Q20
:3Q
20:4
Q
Demand for Insurance Should Increase in 2019 as GDP Growth
Continues at a Steady Pace and Gradually Benefits the Economy
Broadly
Real GDP Growth (%)
“Great Recession”
began in Dec. 2007
Financial Crisis
2018 GDP forecasts were revised upward by ~0.4%
due to tax reform, but effects wane in 2019
Tax cuts help jolt growth from early 2018 to Q1 2019, but
effects are waning. Trade war, weaker global growth are
adversely
affecting US GDP growth in 2019/20.
-
Sources: SNL Financial; U.S. Commerce Dept., Bureau of Economic
Analysis; I.I.I.
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2008:Q1
2008:Q3
2009:Q1
2009:Q3
2010:Q1
2010:Q3
2011:Q1
2011:Q3
2012:Q1
2012:Q3
2013:Q1
2013:Q3
2014:Q1
2014:Q3
2015:Q1
2015:Q3
2016:Q1
2016:Q3
2017:Q1
2017:Q3
2018:Q1
2018:Q3
DWP y-o-y change y-o-y nominal GDP growth
Direct written premiums track nominal GDP fairly tightly over
time, suggesting the P/C insurance industry’s growth prospects
inextricably
linked to economic performance.
The Economy Drives P/C Insurance Industry
Premiums:2006:Q1–2018:Q4
Direct Premium Growth (All P/C Lines) vs. Nominal GDP: Quarterly
Y-o-Y Pct. Change
-
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index:Jan. 1988–May 2019
Source: National Federal of Independent Business; Wells Fargo
Research.
Outlook: Small businesses increasingly concerned about the
future
Trade wars (actual and threatened actions)
are introducing massive uncertainty in
to the markets
Small Business Optimism took a big hit in late 2018/early 2019
on fears of a greater
economic uncertainty (esp. trade war fears and concerns over
rising interest rates). Tax reform, reduced
regulations and strong sales have driven
investment, hiring and exposures.
-
Consumer Confidence Index: Jan. 1987– June 2019
Source: The Conference Board; Wells Fargo Research.
Outlook: Consumer confidence was shaken by financial volatility
in late 2018/early 2019—but confidence is rebounding. Consumers are
optimistic about the future, which is consistent with expectations
for stronger economic growth (consumers account for nearly 70% of
all
spending in the economy). Should positively influence growth of
insurable exposures.
The Conference Board’s Consumer
Confidence Index stood at 121.5 in June, down from its
post-recession high in Q3 2018 and the largest monthly decline
since 2015
-
New Private Housing Starts, 1990-2025F
1.48
1.47 1.62
1.64
1.57 1.60 1.71 1.85 1.96 2.07
1.80
1.36
0.91
0.55 0.59 0.610.78 0.92 1.00 1.11
1.17 1.20 1.26
1.23 1.26 1.34 1.37 1.41 1.45
1.45
1.351.46
1.29
1.20
1.011.19
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19F20F21F22F23F24F25F
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic
Indicators (6/19 for 2019-20; 3/19 for 2021-25F); University. of
South Carolina, Center for Risk and Uncertainty Management..
Insurers Continue to See Meaningful Exposure Growth in the Wake
of the “Great Recession” Associated with Home Construction:
Construction Risk
Exposure, Surety, Commercial Auto; Potent Driver of Workers Comp
Exposure
New home starts plunged 72% from 2005-2009; a net
annual decline of 1.49 million units, lowest since records
began
in 1959
Job growth, low inventories of existing homes, and demographics
should continue to stimulate new
home construction, but higher mortgage rates and a slowing
economy will slow the pace of growth
(Millions of Units)
-
39
16.9
16.5
16.1
13.2
10.411.612.7
14.4 15.5 16.4 17.4
17.5
17.1
17.2
16.7
16.4
16.2
16.2
16.4
16.5
16.7
16.7
16.9
16.617.117.517.8
17.4
910111213141516171819
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19F20F 21F22F22F 23F24F25F
(Millions of Units)
Auto/Light Truck Sales, 1999-2023F
New auto/light truck sales fell to the
lowest level since the late 1960s.
Job growth and improved credit market conditions boosted
auto
sales to near record levels by 2015/16
Truck, SUV purchases remain strong as smaller car sales
slump
Yearly car/light truck sales are slowing slightly, as demand
tapers. But shifting consumer preferences for more expensive
trucks, SUVs and crossovers will
contirbue continued exposure growth. PP Auto premium might grow
by 3.5% - 5%.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic
Indicators (6/19 for 2019-20; 3/19 for 2021-25F); Univ. of South
Carolina, Center for Risk and Uncertainty Management.
-
US Unemployment Rate Forecast: 2007:Q1–2020:Q4
4.5%
4.5% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9%5.4%6.1%
6.9%
8.1%
9.3% 9.6% 10.0%
9.7%
9.6%
9.6%
8.9% 9.1%
9.1%
8.7%
8.3%
8.2%
8.0%
7.8%
7.7%
7.6%
7.3%
7.0%
6.6%
6.2%
6.1%
5.7%
5.6%
5.4%
5.2%
5.0%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.7%
4.7%
4.4%
4.3%
4.1%
4.1%
3.9%
3.8%
3.8% 3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6% 3.7%
3.7%
9.6%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
07:Q1
07:Q2
07:Q3
07:Q4
08:Q1
08:Q2
08:Q3
08:Q4
09:Q1
09:Q2
09:Q3
09:Q4
10:Q1
10:Q2
10:Q3
10:Q4
11:Q1
11:Q2
11:Q3
11:Q4
12:Q1
12:Q2
12:Q3
12:Q4
13:Q1
13:Q2
13:Q3
13:Q4
14:Q1
14:Q2
14:Q3
14:Q4
15:Q1
15:Q2
15:Q3
15:Q4
16:Q1
16:Q2
16:Q3
16:Q4
17:Q1
17:Q2
17:Q3
17:Q4
18:Q1
18:Q2
18:Q3
18:Q4
19:Q1
19:Q2
19:Q3
19:Q4
20:Q1
20:Q2
20:Q3
20:Q4
Rising unemployment eroded payrolls
and WC’s exposure base.
Unemployment peaked at 10% in late 2009.
* = actual; = forecastsSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics;
Blue Chip Economic Indicators (6/19 edition); Risk and Uncertainty
Management Center, University of South Carolina.
Optimistic scenarios put unemployment as low as 3.4% by Q4 2019
and 3.2% in Q4 2020, whereas pessimistic scenarios put it as
high
as 4.4%, reflecting increased economic uncertainty ahead.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain below 4%
through 2020.
At 3.6%, the unemployment
rate is at its lowest reading
in 50 years.
-
Number of Unemployed Persons per Job Opening, Feb. 2003—Feb.
2019*
*Seasonally adjustedNote: Recessions indicated by gray shaded
columns.Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS survey: at
http://www.bls.gov/jlt/; National Bureau of Economic Research
(recession dates); Center for Risk and Uncertainty Management,
University of South Carolina.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
'19
At the height of the recession,
there were nearly 7 job seekers for
every one opening
Today, there are just 0.9 job
seekers for every one opening,
down from 1.1 a year ago
Unemployed Persons per Job Opening
http://www.bls.gov/jlt/
-
US TRADE POLICY
How Will the P/C Insurance Industry Be Impacted by
Escalating Trade Disputes?
-
Trade Actions and Workers Compensationn Major Trade Actions
Announced So Far
w March 2018: Steel and Aluminum– 25% tariff on foreign steel,
10% tariff on imported aluminum
w April 2018: $50B in tariffs announced on some 1,300 Chinese
products w Sept. 2018: 10% tariffs on $200B worth of Chinese
products
– China retaliates immediate with highly targeted tariffs on
American products
w May 10, 2019: 10% tariffs à 25% on $200B on Chinese products–
Threat to implement 25% on remaining $325B not currently subject to
tariff– China retaliates with $60B in tariffs on US goods
w May 31: Tariffs of Up to 25% Threatened Against all $370B in
Mexican Imports– Agreement reached June 8; Tariffs tabled for now
but could pose future threat
n Potential Impacts: Job and Income Losses Could Be Severe if
Targeted Countries Retaliatew Hundreds of thousands of jobs would
be lost across many industries
w P/C premium shrinkage would be measured in the billions as
hundreds of billions as exposure growth slows or shrinks in key
lines
-
44
Trade Actions and P/C InsurancenPotential Impacts on P/C
Insurance
w Personal Auto repair costs likely to rise by 2.7% or about
$3.4B annually, assuming 25% tariffs on imported parts
w Tariffs against Mexico could have cost insurers/consumers up
to $5B– Mexico is the largest source of imported auto parts (~40%
or $60B)
w Analogous impacts in Commercial Autow Tariffs on Canadian
lumber is raising construction costs
Tariffs will increase claims costs by
billions of dollars—impact personal
auto more than any other line
Source: Available at:
http://news.ambest.com/articlecontent.aspx?refnum=276836&altsrc=43
http://news.ambest.com/articlecontent.aspx%3Frefnum=276836&altsrc=43
-
Who Bears the Cost of Tariffs on Chinese Goods?5 Possibilities1.
Importer Gets Chinese Firms to Agree to Pay Tariffs
w Chinese firm absorbs full cost of tariff and makes due with
lower profits
2. Chinese Firms Cut Costs to Partially Offset Impact of
Tariffsw Reducing costs will allow the importer to moderate price
increase to consumer
3. Importer Negotiates Discount on Chinese Productsw Results in
only part of price increase being passed along to consumer
4. Importer Finds Alternatives to Chinese Productionw Benefits
exporters in other countries; Helps limit domestic price
increase
5. Pass Costs Through Cost of Tariff to Consumerw Buyer of
product bears the full price increase due to the tariff
Note: As a practical matter, some combination of all 5 take
placewThis includes insurers and ultimately policyholders
-
46
Catastrophe Loss Update: Major Driver of Rate Pressure
CAT Losses in 2017-2018 Were Among the Costliest Ever for US
Insurers
Hurricanes, Wildfires and Floods Have Exacted a Huge Toll
46
-
U.S. Inflation-Adjusted Cat Losses
*2018: Inflation-adjusted estimate, subject to change. 2010s is
average of 2010 to 2018.Sources: Property Claims Service, a Verisk
Analytics business; Insurance Information Institute.
4037
79
104
50
1980s:$5 B
1990s: $15 B
2000s: $25 B2010s: $35 B
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18*
Bill
ion
s, 2
01
8 $
Average forDecade Hurricane
Andrew WTC
Katrina, Rita, Wilma
2018 – Third worst year for U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses.
Average Insured Loss per Year for 1980-2018 is $19.3 B.
Harvey, Irma, Maria
-
48
US Insured Catastrophe Losses by Decade: 1980s – 2010s*
$15
$25
$35
$5
$33
$19
$9
$2$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Serious efforts to mitigate against climate risk must be led by
government at all levels. Requires enormous long-term
infrastructure
investments that funded primarily through debt
($ Bill)
*2010s figures is the average of the years 2010-2018.Sources:
Property Claims Service, a Verisk Analytics business; Insurance
Information Institute.
Not Inflation Adjusted Inflation-Adjusted
Inflation-adjusted
insured CAT losses are
rising by $10 billion each
decade
-
49
Top 8 US Catastrophe Losses of 2018, by Insured Loss
(Insured Losses, 2018 Dollars, $ Billions)*
$10.0
$12.5
$5.0$4.0
$2.0$1.6$1.6$1.0
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
Colorado Hail ConvectiveStorms (March)
Winter Storms(March)
ConvectiveStorms (May)
Woolsey Wildfire HurricaneFlorence
HurricaneMichael
Camp Wildfire
Insured CAT losses in the US totaled ~$40 billion in 2018
.Sources: PCS; Munich Re; Reinsurance News:
https://www.reinsurancene.ws/insurance-industry-losses-events-data/
https://www.reinsurancene.ws/insurance-industry-losses-events-data/
-
50
Top 20 Most Costly Disastersin U.S. History—Katrina Still Ranks
#1
(Insured Losses, 2017 Dollars, $ Billions)*
$9.3 $9.7 $10.0$11.7$14.2$14.2$15.9
$18.0$19.8$21.9
$25.3$26.0$27.1
$51.6
$5.9 $6.0 $7.1 $7.5 $7.9 $8.3
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Jeanne(2004)
Frances(2004)
Rita (2005)
Torn./T-Storms (2011)
Torn./T-Storms (2011)
Hugo (1989)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
Michael(2018)
Wilma(2005)
Camp Fire(2018)
Ike (2008)
Harvey (2017)
Irma (2017)
Sandy(2012)
Maria (2017)
Northridge(1994)
9/11 (2001)
Andrew(1992)
Katrina(2005)
Harvey, Irma and Maria combined caused an
estimated $55B in privately insured losses in the US
Includes Tuscaloosa, AL,
tornado
Includes Joplin, MO, tornado
17 of the 20 Most Expensive Insurance Events in US History Have
Occurred Since 2004—5 of those in 2017/18
*Estimated.Sources: PCS, RMS, Karen Clark & Co; USC Center
for Risk and Uncertainty Management adjustments to 2017 dollars
using the CPI.
-
51
Inflation Adjusted U.S. Catastrophe Losses by Cause of Loss,
1997–20161
0.2%2.0%7.0%
5.9%
6.7%
39.9%
38.2%
1. Catastrophes are defined as events causing direct insured
losses to property of $25 million or more in 2016 dollars.2.
Excludes snow.3. Does not include NFIP flood losses4. Includes
wildland fires5. Includes civil disorders, water damage, utility
disruptions and non-property losses such as those covered by
workers compensation.Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services
Unit.
Hurricanes & Tropical Storms, $161.1
Fires (4), $8.4
Events Involving Tornadoes (2), $168.1
Winter Storms, $28.2
Terrorism, $25.0
Other Wind/Hail/Flood (3), $29.7
Other (5), $0.8
Wind losses, by far, cause the most
catastrophe losses, even if hurricanes/TS
are excluded.
Tornado share of CAT losses is
rising
Insured cat losses from 1997-2016
totaled $421.2B, an average of $21.1B per year or $1.76B
per month
Winter storm losses were much above average in 2014/15
pushing
this share up
-
52
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
(Percent)
US Reinsurance Pricing Is Sensitive to CAT Activity and
Ultimately Impacts Primary Insurance Pricing, Terms and
Conditions
Post-Andrew surge
US Property Catastrophe Rate-on-Line Index: 1990 – 2019*
*As of January 1 each year.Source: Guy Carpenter; Artimes.bm
accessed at:
http://www.artemis.bm/us-property-cat-rate-on-line-index
Post-9/11 Adjustment
Post Katrina, Rita, Wilma
period
Post-Ike adjustment Adjustment
following record tornado losses in 2011 and Sandy in
2012
Record CATs in 2017 and high CAT losses in 2018
pressured US reinsurance prices in recent years (+8%
in 2018, +2.6% in 2019)
http://www.artemis.bm/us-property-cat-rate-on-line-index
-
53
Commercial Lines Growth, Underwriting Performance
& Pricing Cyclicality
Pricing Pressures Are Intense but Rational
53
-
109.
411
0.2
118.
810
9.5 1
12.5
110.
210
7.6
104.
110
9.7
110.
2
102.
5 105.
491
.194
.510
4.4
100.
7 103
.810
7.3
105.
496
.396
.095
.299
.010
2.1
102.
010
2.7
102.
0
111.
1
112.
3
122.
3
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
18E
Com
mer
cial
Lin
es C
ombi
ned
Rat
io
*2007-2012 figures exclude mortgage and financial guaranty
segments.Source: A.M. Best (1990-2019F).
Commercial Lines Combined Ratio, 1990-2019F*
Commercial lines underwriting performance deteriorated
materially in 2017 as record CATs and rising loss cost trends
took there toll. Little improvement is
expected in 2018 or 2019
54
-
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
17 19F
Economic Shocks, Inflation:
1976: 22.2%Tort Crisis
1986: 30.5%
Post-9/112002: 22.4%
Great Recession:2009: -9.0%
ROE
2019F: +3.1%
Commercial Lines NPW Premium Growth:1975 – 2019F
Recessions:1982: 1.1%
Commercial lines is prone to far more cyclical volatility
that
personal lines.
1988-2000: Period of
inter-cycle stability
Commercial lines premium
growth has been sluggish
for years, reflecting weak
pricing environment.
Note: Data include state funds beginning in 1998. Source: A.M.
Best; Insurance Information Institute; Univ. of South Carolina
Center for Risk and Uncertainty Management, ISO.
Post-Hurricane Andrew Bump:
1993: 6.3%
Post Katrina Bump:
2006: 7.7%
2016: -1.1%
2018: +10.2%
-
56
CIAB: Average Commercial Rate Change, All Lines,
2011:Q1–2019:Q1*
-0.1%
0.9%2.7% 4.4%
4.3%
3.9% 5.0% 5.2%
4.3%
3.4%
2.1%
1.5%
-0.5%
0.1%
-0.7%
-2.3%
-3.3%
-3.1%
-2.8%
-3.7%
-3.9%
-3.2%
-3.3%
-2.5%
-2.8% -1.3%
0.3% 1.7%
2.4% 3.5%
-2.9%
1.6%
1.5%
-16%
-11%
-6%
-1%
4%
9%
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
*Latest available.Note: CIAB data cited here are based on a
survey. Rate changes earned by individual insurers can and do vary,
potentially substantially.Source: Council of Insurance Agents &
Brokers; Center for Risk and Uncertainty Management, Univ. of South
Carolina.
Largest increase since 2013(Percent)
Renewals turned positive in late 2011
in the wake of record tornado
losses and Hurricane Sandy
Poor results in 2017/18 may seem to have exerted enough pressure
on markets to push overall rates up by +3.5% as
of Q1 2019
-
57
Change in Commercial Rate Renewals, by Line: 2019:Q1
Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; USC Center for
Risk and Uncertainty Management.
Percentage Change (%)
2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8%3.2% 3.3%
5.9%
8.8%
-3.3%
0.3% 0.3% 0.5%1.1%
2.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Workers
Comp
Cyber
Surety
Terrorism
Marine
General
Liability
Business
Interruption
EPL
Construction
Flood
D&O
Umbrella
Commercial
Property
Commercial
Auto
Commercial Property, Business Interruption,
Flood are reflecting record CAT losses and
pressure from reinsurance markets
Note: CIAB data cited here are based on a survey. Rate changes
earned by individual insurers can and do vary, potentially
substantially.
Commercial Auto saw the largest renewals
in 2018-19
-
Commercial Auto Combined Ratio: 1993–2019F
112.1
112.0
113.0
115.9
102.7
95.2
92.9
92.1
92.4 94.1 96.8 99.1
97.8103.4 106.8
106.7
103.3 108.8
110.5
111.1
112.9
113.3118.1
115.7
116.2
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18E19F
Commercial Auto Results Are Challenged as Rate Gains Have Yet to
Fully Offset Adverse Frequency and Severity Trends
58Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2019F); Center for Risk and
Uncertainty Management, University of South Carolina.
-
Workers Compensation Operating Environment
59
Workers Comp Results Have Improved Substantially in Recent
YearsCan Gains Be Maintained?
59
-
Workers Compensation Combined Ratio: 1994–2018P
102.0
97.0 100.0
101.0
112.6
108.6
105.1
102.7
98.5 103.5
104.5 110.6 115.0
115.0
109.0
102.0
100.0
94.0
94.0
89.0
84.0
121.7
107.0115.3
118.2
80859095100105110115120125130
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18p
Workers Comp Is an Example of a Line that Was Recently Restored
to Health Through the Return of Rate Adequacy as
Well as Declining Claim FrequencySources: A.M. Best (1994-2009);
NCCI (2010-2018P) and are for private carriers only.. 60
WC results have improved markedly since 2011. The 2018 combined
ratio is the
best in at least 80 years
-
Workers Compensation Premium: Down in 2017 After 6 Years of
IncreaseNet Written Premium
31.0
31.3
29.8
30.5
29.1
26.3
25.2
24.2
23.3
22.3 25
.0
26.1 29
.2 31.1 34
.7 37.8
38.6
37.6
33.8
30.3
29.9 32
.3 35.1 36.9 38.5
39.7
40.1
39.8
35.3
35.7
34.3 35.4
33.6
30.1
28.5
26.9
25.9
25.0 2
8.6 3
2.1
37.7
42.3
46.5
47.8
46.5
44.3
39.3
34.6
33.8 3
6.4 39
.5 41.8 44
.2 45.5
45.6
45.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17p
State Funds ($ B)Private Carriers ($ B)
Pvt. Carrier NWP growth was -1.3% in 2017, +0% in 2016,
+2.9% in 2015, +4.3% in 2014, +5.1% in 2013 and 8.7% in 2012
$ Billions
Calendar Yearp PreliminarySource: NCCI from Annual Statement
Data.
Includes state insurance fund data for the following states: AZ,
CA, CO, HI, ID, KY, LA, MD, MO, MT, NM, OK, OR, RI, TX, UT.Each
calendar year total for State Funds includes all funds operating as
a state fund that year.
-
Workers Compensation Lost-Time Claim Frequency Declined Again in
2018
62
0.3
-6.5
-4.5
0.5
-3.9-2.3
-4.5
-6.9
-4.5 -4.1-3.7
-6.6
-4.5
-2.2
-4.3 -4.9
10.6
-3.9
-5.8
-4.0-3
-5.1-6.2
-4.8
-1.0
3.6
-0.9
-10-8-6-4-202468
1012
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18p
IndicatedAdjusted*
Percent
Accident Year*Adjustments primarily due to significant audit
activity.2017p: Preliminary based on data valued as of
12/31/2017.Source: NCCI Financial Call data, developed to ultimate
and adjusted to current wage an voluntary loss cost level; Excludes
high deductible policies; 1994-2017: Based on data through
12/31/17. Data for all states where NCCI provides ratemaking
services, excluding WV.Frequency is the number of lost-time claims
per $1M pure premium at current wage and voluntary loss cost
level
Average Annual Change = –3.5%(1994–2016)
-
$9.8$9.5$9.2$9.7$9.7$10.3$11.5$12.5$13.6$14.9$16.4$16.9$17.5
$22.1$22.2
$21.8$21.6
$22.6$22.8$22.9$23.9$24.6
$22.3$18.1$17.6
$19.1$20.8
$21.6
-0.9%
-2.7%
+0.5%
+8.3%
+0.9%
+5.5%
+2.8%
+0.6%
+3.6%
+3.0%
+10.1%
+9.6%
+8.8%
+8.7%
+11.7%
+5.9%
+1.7%
+4.9%
-2.8%
-3.1%
+1.0%
+6.8%
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18p
IndemnityClaim Cost ($ 000s)
Accident Year
Workers Comp Indemnity Claim Costs: Sharper Increase in 2018
Average indemnity costs per claim were up 3% in
2018 to $24,600
Average Indemnity Cost per Lost-Time Claim
+3%
+4.4
%
Cumulative Change = 151%(1991-2018p)
2018p: Preliminary based on data valued as of
12/31/2018.1991-2017: Based on data through 12/31/2017, developed
to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking
services including state funds, excluding WV; Excludes high
deductible policies.
+0.4
%
+1.3
%+3
.2%
-
$8.1$8.2$8.1$8.8$8.9$9.6$10.9$11.8$13.0$13.9$15.7$17.0$18.3
$24.2$25.2
$25.8$26.0
$27.4$27.2$27.6$28.7$28.9
$26.5$20.5$19.2
$21.7$22.9
$25.2
0.04
0.04
+3.7
+1.9
+0.8%
-0.2%
+4.2%
+5.6% +2.4%
+5.5%
+7.0%
+4.7%
+8.1%
+7.9%
+13.6%
+6.7%
+10.2%
+8.3%
+10.1%
+7.4%
+5.1%
+9.0%
+2.1%
+1.3%
+6.8%
+5.8%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18p
MedicalClaim Cost ($ 000s)
Accident Year
Workers Comp Medical Claim Costs: Pace of Increase Decelerated
in 2018
Average indemnity costs per claim were up just 1% in 2018 to
$28,900, following a sharp 4.1% increase in 2017
Average Medical Cost per Lost-Time Claim
+1%
+4.1
%
Cumulative Change = 257%(1991-2018p)
2018p: Preliminary based on data valued as of
12/31/2018.1991-2017: Based on data through 12/31/2017, developed
to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking
services including state funds, excluding WV; Excludes high
deductible policies.
-1.0
%
+1.5
%
-
Tort Environment, Cyber Pressure
65
The Tort Environment Remains a Perpetual Challenge for
Insurers
Cyber: Learning by Doing
65
-
66
The Nation’s Judicial Hellholes: 2017 – 2018
Source: American Tort Reform Association; Risk and Uncertainty
Management Center, Univ. of South Carolina.
Florida
IllinoisCook County
Madison County
Louisiana
Watch Listn Baltimore, MDn Georgian Newport News, VAn OR Supreme
Courtn PA Supreme Courtn West Virginia
Dishonorable Mention
n CT Supreme Courtn Governor of MNn WI Appeals Court
California
NYCAsbestos Litigation
St. Louis Philadelphia
New Jersey
-
Average Jury Awards, 1999 - 2016
$725 $747$756
$800 $799
$1,018$1,022
$950
$1,077$1,046
$654
$806
$1,098
$1,010$1,042
$1,132
$1,355
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Jury Verdict Research; Risk and Uncertainty Management
Center, Univ. of South Carolina.
The average jury award reached an all-time record high in
2016.
-
Shareholder Class Action Lawsuits*
Source: Stanford University School of Law
(securities.stanford.edu); Risk and Uncertainty Management Center,
Univ. of South Carolina.
164 202
163231
188
111173241
209 216
498
266
227 238
182
119 176222
168
175 188
151 165
168 208271
412
403
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Shareholder litigation is surging, in part due to suits
associated with M&A activity. Major
implications for D&O coverage.
-
Data Breaches 2005-2018, by Number of Breaches and Records
Exposed
# Data Breaches/Millions of Records Exposed
Source: Identity Theft Resource Center.
157321
446
656498
419 447
1091
1632
1244
662783 780
619
197.6
127.7
16.2
222.5
66.9
19.135.7
22.9 17.3
87.9 85.6
177.9
366
446.5
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
20180
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
# Data Breaches # Records Exposed (Millions)
Millions
69
The number of data breaches and
records exposed is generally rising
-
Summary
n P/C Insurance Industry Remains Strong, but…
n ROEs Remain Below Risk-Appropriate Levels
n Combined Ratios in Many Key Commercial Lines > 100
n Low Interest Rates Preclude Cash Flow Underwriting
n Implies that Pressure is Primarily On Rate (and Expense
Management)
n High Catastrophe Losses, Tort Environment, Politics Pressuring
Rates Too
-
Thank you for your timeand your attention!
Twitter: twitter.com/bob_hartwigFor a copy of this presentation,
email me at [email protected]
71
http://moore.sc.edu