FACING ENERGY SECURITY IN THE AMERICAS FACING ENERGY SECURITY IN THE AMERICAS THROUGH AGROENERGY SOURCES THROUGH AGROENERGY SOURCES Roberto Rodrigues Washington / USA - October, 28th 2008 - OAS
Feb 25, 2016
FACING ENERGY SECURITY IN THE FACING ENERGY SECURITY IN THE AMERICAS THROUGH AGROENERGY AMERICAS THROUGH AGROENERGY
SOURCESSOURCES Roberto RodriguesWashington / USA - October, 28th 2008 - OAS
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AGRICULTUREAGRICULTURE
Source: Alan MacDiarmid, em São Carlos – SP
The ten biggest problems for theThe ten biggest problems for thehumanity in the next 50 yearshumanity in the next 50 years
Energy EducationWater DemocracyFood PopulationEnvironment DiseasePoverty Terrorism & war
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Changes in the demandChanges in the demand::Sustainability:Sustainability:
Economical, social and Economical, social and environmentalenvironmental
- flavor- flavor- quality- quality- traceability- traceability- health- health- environment- environment- organic products- organic products
TrendsTrends
TrendsTrends
Food DemandFood Demand(2000 – 2025)(2000 – 2025)
+ 62.0%+ 62.0%Source: Bourlaug, N., Agroanalysis, Vol. 27, nº 03 (março/2007)Elaboration: GV Agro
Demographic trends:Demographic trends:Increase.%2000-2025
Part.%2025
China 13.2% 17.4%
India 36.6% 16.8%
Africa 68.9% 15.4%
World 33.9% 100%
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Projection of the urban and rural population in the Projection of the urban and rural population in the worldworld
Source: ONUElaboration: GV Agro
TrendsTrends
Rural
Urban
billi
on o
f peo
ple
billi
on o
f peo
ple
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Evolution of GDP Evolution of GDP (2006-2013)(2006-2013)
Source: FMI Nota: PIB a preços de 2005
TrendsTrends
- World: 4.6% a.a- Countries of G-7: 2.2% a.a- Developing countries: 7.1% a.a
Participation in the world GDPParticipation in the world GDP
Países do G-7Countries of G-7Countries of G-759.5% 53.6%59.5% 53.6%
Others devolopedOthers devoloped15.8% 15.6%15.8% 15.6%
Developing countriesDeveloping countries24.7% 30.8%24.7% 30.8%
2006 2013
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World: offer and estimated demand for World: offer and estimated demand for foodfood
Source: FAO (2003) Elaboration: AGE – MAPA ¹ all of consumed meats
(in million tons)(in million tons)
Source: USDA (out/08)
Global stockpilesGlobal stockpiles
Elaboration GV Agro
Global stocks of grainsGlobal stocks of grains
Source: USDA Note: * Soybean, Corn, Wheat and Barley. In thousand tons Elaboração: GV Agro
Production x Consumption*:Production x Consumption*: total in the period (2000/01-2007/08) total in the period (2000/01-2007/08)
Brazil produces surpluses to supply the world Brazil produces surpluses to supply the world stocksstocks
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Source: UN COMTRADEElaboration: GV Agro
Main products (by value) - 1965Main products (by value) - 1965Brazilian agribusiness exportsBrazilian agribusiness exports
Agribusiness Exports: US$ 1.35 billion (84.4%)Total Brazilian Exports: US$ 1.59 billion
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Main products (by value)Main products (by value)Brazilian agribusiness exportsBrazilian agribusiness exports
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Developed Countriesfrom US$ 14.4 bi to US$ 34.8 bi
Variation (2000-2008*): +11.7% a.a.
Developing Countriesfrom US$ 6.2 bi to US$ 29.1 bi
Variation (2000-2008*): +21.3% a.a.
Source: Aliceweb-MDIC. Nota: * from jun/07toa mai/08 Elaboration: GV Agro
US$ 20.5 bi US$ 63.9 bi
Brazilian Agribusiness ExportsBrazilian Agribusiness Exports
131322/04/2322/04/23Source: CONAB Elaboration: GV Agro
The use of high technology resulted on an increase of 99% in productivity at the period from 1990/1991 to 2007/08.
* 1ª Estimate (october/2008)
Brazilian production of Brazilian production of graingrain
- - 27.2 million tons27.2 million tons
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Brazil: meat productionBrazil: meat production
Broiler +200%
Beef +77%
Pork +130%
Sources: ABIEC, ABEF e ABIPECS Notes: *Estimative
%
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21st Century: the beginning of a 21st Century: the beginning of a New EraNew Era
Challenge: TO DIVERSIFY ENERGY SOURCESChallenge: TO DIVERSIFY ENERGY SOURCESUp to 2030, the world demand for energy should increase 58%.Up to 2030, the world demand for energy should increase 58%.
Sources: Nakícenovic, Grübler and MaConald, 1998 and Energy Information Administration - EIA/USA
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Why biofuels?Why biofuels?
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• More countries producing
• Elimination of myths
• Global strategy
Organization of the marketOrganization of the market
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Energetic matrix – Brazil and Energetic matrix – Brazil and WorldWorld
Source: MME/BEN (2007) Elaboration: GV Agro
World total: 11,434 Mtep
Renewable sources:45.8%
Participation in the total consumption
Brazil
2.1% 48.5% 100%
World
More countries producingMore countries producing
In 2007, sugarcane became the second main source of energy in Brazil.
191922/04/2322/04/23Source: BPStatistical Review of World Energy Elaboration: GV Agro
Tropical region: favourable to the sugarcane production
Energy: consumption Energy: consumption per capita per capita (2006)(2006)
More countries producingMore countries producing
100 countries could supply biofuels to 200 nations, while currently 20 oil producers provide fossil fuels to the rest of the World.
Tons oil equivalent
Sources: IEA, CONAB e IBGE Notas: para o cálculo da área, considerou-se um rendimento de 7.000 litros/ha. Elaboration: GV Agro
Substitution of part of the gasoline Substitution of part of the gasoline 3 CENARIOS: E-5, E-10 3 CENARIOS: E-5, E-10 and E-20and E-20World: potential demand for ethanol World: potential demand for ethanol (billion liters / year)(billion liters / year)
Demand for planted areaDemand for planted area34,434,4 million hamillion ha
(using E-20)(using E-20)
Worldwide demand for ethanol in the 3 cenarios (billion liters / year): 60.1 120.2 and 240.5
Market potential for ethanolMarket potential for ethanol
There is still a lot of arable land There is still a lot of arable land worldwildeworldwilde
““Taking these data at face value, and in relative terms, there is greatest Taking these data at face value, and in relative terms, there is greatest potential for agricultural expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa and in South and potential for agricultural expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa and in South and
Central America, which together form over 70% of the global potential Central America, which together form over 70% of the global potential increase.”increase.”
Source: LAND RESOURCE POTENTIAL AND CONSTRAINTS AT REGIONAL AND COUNTRY LEVELS FAO Rome, 2000
Ethanol world production: projection to Ethanol world production: projection to 20122012
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Note: projections 2008/2012 are based on the capacity of production and the target of consumption of the main countriesSource: Fapri, Acti, FO Licht, Unica and Toepfer Elaboration: UNICA
Emissions of COEmissions of CO22 in 2005: 20 main in 2005: 20 main polluterspolluters
232322/04/2322/04/23Source: Embrapa Monitoramento por Satélite Elaboration: GV Agro
50% of50% ofemissionsemissions
Eliminating all mythsEliminating all myths
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The replacement of 1,000 buses (diesel) by buses that use ethanol would avoid the emission of 96 tons of CO2 per
year, equivalentto emissions of 20,000 cars with gasoline.Since 1970, is estimated that the use of ethanol in Brazil has avoided
emissions of 644 million tons of CO2 and 25.8 million tons last year.
Emission of GHG through the replacementEmission of GHG through the replacementof gasoline by ethanolof gasoline by ethanol
Compared to diesel, biodiesel reduces in about 50% of the CO2
emissions.
Ethanol from corn(USA)
Ethanol from beet(E.U)
Ethanol from sugarcane (Brazil)
Source: IBGE and CONAB
Production with sustainabilityProduction with sustainabilityEliminating all mythsEliminating all myths
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Preserved Area **
Planted Area(million ha)
Production(million tons)7.1 million of ha
were preserved
Sugarcane: evolution of the Sugarcane: evolution of the productivityproductivity
Source: IBGE (Censo Agropecuário: 1970-1975-1980-1985; PAM (1990 até 2006); e LSPA (2007 e 2008)
Elaboration: GV Agro Note: * Estimate **Area calculated by the productivity of 1970
Eliminating all mythsEliminating all myths
9.3
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* Fuel completely not renewable has value lower than 1.* Values superior to 1 indicate how much renewable is the fuel.
Source: World Watch Institute
Balance of energyBalance of energyEliminating all mythsEliminating all myths
Energy contained in the fuel / Used fossil energy to produce fuel
Biofuels: production costsBiofuels: production costs
Source: OECD
-0.40-0.200.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.00
04 05 06 07 04 05 06 07 04 05 06 07 04 05 06 07 04 05 06 07
Ethanol Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Ethanol
Sugar cane Maize Rape oil Sugar beet Wheat
Brazil USA EU EU EU
US
$/l g
asol
ine
equi
vale
nt
Year, fuel type, country
Energy costs
Processing costs
Feedstock costs
Co-product value
Net price gasoline
Net costs, total
Brazil: Automobiles and light vehicles – fleet Brazil: Automobiles and light vehicles – fleet projection (2006 to 2015)projection (2006 to 2015)
mill
ion
of v
ehic
les
mill
ion
of v
ehic
les
Sources: ANFAVEA, MAPA and ICONE
303022/04/2322/04/23Source: UNICAMP
Excluded the Amazon Excluded the Amazon Region, Pantanal and Region, Pantanal and
declivity superior to declivity superior to 12%12%
Eliminating all mythsEliminating all myths
Soil and climate adapted to the Soil and climate adapted to the sugarcane production without sugarcane production without irrigationirrigation
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Brazil: herd of cattle x pastureBrazil: herd of cattle x pastureEliminating all mythsEliminating all myths
More efficient livestock liberation of land for the agricultureSource: IBGE (Censo Agropecuário) e IEA/SP Elaboration: GV Agro *lotação média de São Paulo (2006)
pasture area
cattle (heads)
Energy content of the sugarcaneEnergy content of the sugarcaneEnergy contained in 1,000 tons of sugarcaneEnergy contained in 1,000 tons of sugarcane
(tons in petroleum equivalent )(tons in petroleum equivalent )
Source: Nastari, Lisbon, 2000
Total energy: 162.59 tons in petroleum Total energy: 162.59 tons in petroleum equivalentequivalent
Bagasse56.43 tons
Sucrose51.11 tons
Tips andStraws
55.05 tons
Global strategyGlobal strategy
333322/04/2322/04/23Source: Cogen and Unica
The bagasse resulting from the processing of the cane represents 30% of the total volume. Raw material for the bioeletricity production
Estimates of the potential of bioeletricity in Estimates of the potential of bioeletricity in BrazilBrazil
Global strategyGlobal strategy
SugarSugar
EthanolEthanol
ExportsExports
DomesticDomestic
ExportsExports
DomesticDomestic
BioelectricityBioelectricity- Potential -- Potential -
51%51%
32%32%
Participation of the products in the income of the Participation of the products in the income of the sectorsector
Source: UNICA Note: For the calculation of the percentile of 2015/16 it was used as base the potential for production and export at constant prices of 2006.
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Challenges to the sectorChallenges to the sector• Commercial limitations? - protected markets - internal oil protection - self-sufficiency (target of the countries) - low/high prices cycles
• Constant Expansion of the Offer - offer and demand balance - investments
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• Sectorial Regulation
• Research and Development
• Planning
• Administration
Challenges to the sectorChallenges to the sector
The ethanol certifications “Babel” The ethanol certifications “Babel”
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ETHANOLETHANOL
PBCB Brazilian
Biofuel Program Certification
Brazilian Government
Biofuel CertificationMeó Consulting TeamGerman Government
Sustainable Production of Biomass Cramer Commission Dutch Government
RTFO Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation
UK Government
BSIBetter Sugarcane InitiativeBased in United Kingdom
RTSB Round Table on Sustainable Biofuels
Based in Switzerland
SEKAB, GREENERGYSweden, United Kingdom
Certifications proliferation schemes is counterproductive: : discourages initiatives and discourages initiatives and investments, particularly in investments, particularly in developing countriesdeveloping countries..
EU DirectivesEuropean Union
National Certifications
Institutional Certifications
Deprived certifications