Extreme Weather and Climate events, livelihoods ... · Extreme Weather and Climate events, livelihoods, infrastructures and Socio-economics Rudzani Malala South African Weather Service

Doc Ref no: GLM_IPCC-SREX_20 -22 October 2013.1

Extreme Weather and Climate events, livelihoods, infrastructures and

Socio-economics

Rudzani MalalaSouth African Weather Service

Regional Manager: Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga078 546 3900

[email protected]

20-22 October 2013 IPCC-SREX Seminar

CONTENT

Doc Ref no: GLM_UN-ISDR_14 October 2013.1

Introduction and Overview•Extreme weather and climate events are increasing in  frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and timing.

•Studies have shown that extreme weather and climate  events affect the most vulnerable communities mostly rural poor and people living with disabilities, notwithstanding the coastal communities as a result of changing climate.

•Building Resilience to extreme weather events as a result of Climate Change through Adaptation is the way to go

•Disaster Risk Reduction is everybody’s business, no one sector can achieve the desired results alone, hence collective effort is critical. 

Changing Climate

Extreme Weather and Climate Hazards

Thunderstorms (flash floods, lightning, thundershowers, hail, strong winds)

Tornadoes (violent winds, heavy   thundershowers)

Tropical Cyclone (floods, strong  winds)

Heat Waves (extremely high temperatures)

Cold fronts and Cut­off Low(floods, extreme cold conditions, snow, wet and windy conditions)

Drought (dry conditions, scarce water resources, adverse impact on farming).

Veld Fires (adverse economic losses)

This is where our cold fronts come from

Eumetsat 8

Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

1700Z 28-06-08

Weather and Climate Forecasting

Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

mass

Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

Eumetsat 8

Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

1700Z 28-06-08

Weather and Climate Forecasting

Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

mass

Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

Eumetsat 8

Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

1700Z 28-06-08

Damaging winds

Weather and Climate Forecasting

Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

mass

Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

Eumetsat 8

Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

1700Z 28-06-08

Heavy rainfall

Weather and Climate Forecasting

Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

Eumetsat 8

Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

1700Z 28-06-08

Rough seas

Weather and Climate Forecasting

Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

mass

Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

Advection of cold sub-polar air-mass

Eumetsat 8

Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

1700Z 28-06-08

Weather and Climate Forecasting

Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

mass

Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

Advection of cold sub-polar air-mass

Eumetsat 8

Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

1700Z 28-06-08

Landslides

Weather and Climate Forecasting

This is where our cold fronts come from

Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

mass

Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

Advection of cold sub-polar air-mass

Eumetsat 8

Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

1700Z 28-06-08

Heavy rainfall

Damaged infrastructure

Weather and Climate Forecasting

This is where our cold fronts come from

Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-

mass

Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass

Advection of cold sub-polar air-mass

Eumetsat 8

Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)

1700Z 28-06-08

Heavy rainfall

Snow

Weather and Climate Forecasting

Courtesy: Eumetsat

Ex-Tropical Cyclone – Favio now developed Tropical Low

Cold Fronts

Extra Tropical Cyclone Gamede

Tropical Temperate

Trough

Very Cold Air Mass

Swell

Wind

Freak waves

Freak waves

15

Extreme Weather related systems

Observed extreme weather and climate events Year Events

1991/22003/42007/8

Drought in Southern Africa

2000200620082010201120122013

Floods in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, KZN and Flashfloods in Gauteng due to Tropical Storms/Cyclones). (Eline, Gamede, Dando, Ethel, Funso, Giovanna, Irina…).8 provinces declared disaster area in 2010 due to extreme events where over 100 people died(September 2012 snow storm) Western Cape and Eastern Cape get floods/ flashfloods almost every year due to frontal and cut off low weather systems.

??? What have learnt from all these extreme events?

Impact of Extreme Weather and Climate Hazards

Damaged infrastructure

Displaced communities

Impact on livelihoods

Severe economic loss

Lost agricultural land

• Weather Warnings were issued from the 14th Jan

• Heavy rains started on the 15th Jan• Continued up to the 21st Jan• 618.4mm recorded from 15th – 21st

Jan in Thohoyandou where 282.2 mm was recorded in one day (21st

Jan).• 15 deaths were reported, houses

damaged/collapsed, bridges washed away and thousands of people affected in Vhembe ad Mopani districts. 19

January 2013 Floods in Limpopo

• Lives were reported lost, • Houses damaged/ collapsed, • Bridges washed away and • Thousands of people affected • Cost estimate was over R1 bil

20

Impact on local communities

Forecasting Extreme Weather and Climate Hazards

Weather Forecasts (now­casting, medium term and seasonal)

Remote Sensing information (Satellite, RADAR, LDN and Webcams)

Severe Weather Warnings

Fire Danger warnings

Drought Watch

Advisory (3-6 days)

Watch (1-3 days)

Warnings (24hrs)

No Warning

Advisory:Be aware

Watch:Be prepared

WarningTake action

Early Warning System

SAWS together with the Department of Environmental Affairs and Disaster Management Structures (National, Provincial, District and Local municipalities embarked on:

­ DRR workshops­ Awareness Campaign on Extreme Weather and Climate events­ Vulnerable Community outreach programs ­ Participate in Career exhibitions and Science Week  ­ Youth Summit 

Preparedness

Conclusion and Recommendations

Whilst the debate and conversations about the Climate Change continues, lets not forget that “Action Now” is what we need.

Local Community involvement is critical “Nothing for us without us”.

Extreme Weather and Climate events are becoming more real and common, therefore, working together we can build disaster resilient communities and finding sustainable solutions.

Thank you!