Extreme Events in the Arab Region: Case of Cold Waves and Heat Waves in Tunisia Pr. Dr. Habib BEN BOUBAKER University of Tunis Chairman Ass. Tunisian Geographers 5 th Expert Group Meeting on the Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR). Amman, 11-12 december 2013
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Extreme Events in Tunisia: Cold Waves and Heat Wavescss.escwa.org.lb/SDPD/3250/6Tunisia.pdf · Cold Waves and Heat Waves in Tunisia Pr. Dr. Habib BEN BOUBAKER University of Tunis
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Extreme Events in the Arab Region:Case of
Cold Waves and Heat Waves in Tunisia
Pr. Dr. Habib BEN BOUBAKERUniversity of Tunis
Chairman Ass. Tunisian Geographers
5th Expert Group Meeting on the Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate
Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR).
Amman, 11-12 december 2013
Plan
• 1. Methodological development
• 2. Results: Risks and Trends
• 3. Vulnerability and socio-economic impacts related to CC
Introduction:Methodological development
• 1. Data and indicators?
– Daily observations: Day / night
– 3 hours observations
– ambient indicators: T° / Humidity / wind …
• 2. What relevant thresholds?
• most thresholds and approaches are designed in cold countries Are they suitable for hot countries???
G Froid Très froid Froid Frais Modéré Forte Chaleur TF Chaleur Torride
moderate
days
HO
T
CO
LD
Length of the extreme Saisons : what tendency?
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
2501950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Du
rée d
e l
a s
ais
on
(N
b.
jou
rs)
Eté Hiver Linéaire (Eté) Linéaire (Hiver)
Saison chaude
Saison froide
III. Socio-economic impacts
• Impacts on:
– Environment
– Natural resources
– Health, …
• But:
• Differentiel adaptative capacity and resilience
Strong heatsas well as Cooling
… kill ….
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Janv Mars Mai Juil Sept Nov
To
tal m
oyen
décès / m
ois
²
Monthly average mortality
regime in Tunis
R2 = 0,5051
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64
∑ TX+TN en °C (moyenne décadaire)
Eff
ecti
f m
oyen
de d
écès o
bserv
és/d
écad
e
Decadal average temperatures (TX+TN) for
days and torrid heat very strong and effective
decadal average death (all ages combined) in
Gabes (1991-07)
Strong heats kill …. Exp: summer 2003
Températures (station de Monastir)
et effectifs de décès au
gouvernorat de Monastir du 1er mai
au 31 octobre 2003 (échelle moy.
mobile décadaire)
Températures (Tunis-C) et
effectifs de décès au gouvernorat
de Tunis (1er mai au 31 octobre
2003 , échelle moy. Mobile
décadaire)
Strong heats can be responsible of reemerging diseases: Exp. Of in SBZ (Tunisia):
Total yearly frequency of cases of ZCL and hot days (all categories combined)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
No
mb
re d
e c
as L
CZ
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
Fre
q.
To
t Jo
urs
ch
au
ds à
to
rrid
es
Nombre de cas LCZTot Chaleur
Rate equipment of households in air conditioners and poverty rates
Taux d’équipement des
ménages en climatiseursTaux de ménages pauvres
(source : Lamine, 2009)
Differentiel
resilience
capacity
No equality
face to natural
diseases, face
to death, …
High temperatures particularly morbid and deadly in large cities: Case of Greater Tunis
• Spatially, the equipment of households in air conditioners rate moves in the opposite direction to that of poor households.
•We deduce the greatest socio-economic vulnerability of the poorest social classes, which combines a natural vulnerability already shared with the rest of the population
Taux d’équipement des
ménages en climatiseurs par
délégation dans le Grand Tunis
Conclusions• Urgency for the Arab region to:
– contribute to the struggle against the sources of CC
– build capacity for:
» Prevention
» Adaptation
• ==> This requires strategies for strengthening:
• The skills, knowledge, scientific research, cooperation between neighboring countries (groups / sub-groups)
• ==> initiatives undertaken by RICCAR represent opportunities not to be missed