FABIG TECHNICAL MEETING REVIEW Explosion Analysis of an Onshore Plant with Worked Examples, Quantitative Risk Analysis, Probabilistic Explosion & MDOF Response Analysis Pol Hoorelbeke Total Petrochemicals Bob Brewerton/Jerome Renoult GexCon AS For further information please contact: Pol Hoorelbeke Total Petrochemicals Telephone: + 32 02 2883950 Fax: + 32 02 2883152 E-mail: [email protected]Jerome Renoult Bob Brewerton GexCon AS GexCon AS Telephone: + 47 55 574330 Telephone: + 44 (0) 1732 465465 Fax: + 47 55 574331 Fax: + 44 (0) 1732 469735 E-mail: [email protected][email protected]E-mail:
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FABIG TECHNICAL MEETING REVIEW
Explosion Analysis of an Onshore Plant with Worked Examples, Quantitative Risk Analysis,
Probabilistic Explosion & MDOF Response Analysis
Pol Hoorelbeke
Total Petrochemicals
Bob Brewerton/Jerome Renoult
GexCon AS
For further information please contact:Pol HoorelbekeTotal PetrochemicalsTelephone: + 32 02 2883950Fax: + 32 02 2883152E-mail: [email protected]
• Offshore industry has a relatively recent vapour cloud explosion explosion history: The piper Alpha explosion on the 6th of July 1988 was one of the first
major devastating explosions in offshore. There were 226 people on theplatform at the time of the accident; only 61 survived.
• Onshore Hydrocarbon industry has a much longer vapour cloudaccident history: On the 29th of July 1943 a release occurred from a rail car in the BASF
works at Ludwigshaven. The rail car contained 16,5 te of a mixture of 80% butadiene and 20% of butylene. A vapour cloud formed and ignited. 57 people were killed and 439 injured. The explosion demolished a block 350 m x 100m;
On the 23th of March 2005 a devastating explosion occurred at the BP-Amoco refinery at Texas City. At least 15 people were killed and more than70 injured.
7 20050406, FABIG meeting
Cracker experience (1975 – 2003)Number of crackers in operation (2002)
78
56
56
37
20
17
6
270
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Asia
Western Europe
North America
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
TOTAL
5564TOTAL
98Africa
191ME
342LA
917EU
1270NA
1288Asia
1458WE
# cracker.yearsRegion
# of major accidents in WE region: 7 Major explosion: 4.8 E-3 per cracker.year
Vapour Cloud Explosions : a real risk in Petrochemicals
8 20050406, FABIG meeting
• Total Petrochemicals Data Analysis on PE units
ATEC database : 853 PE units in the world
Experience 1987-1996 : 4.979 reactor-line.years
# accidents: 3
99% confidence interval: 7.05 E-5 → 2.29 E-3 per reactor-line.year
Average: 6.25 E-4 per reactor-line.year
• Total Petrochemicals Data Analysis on Low pressure PE reactor-line
experience 1975 – 2003: 6 131 reactor-line.years
3 « Pasadena like accidents » have been identified in this period
99% confidence interval: 5.51 E-5 → 1.79 E-3 per reactor-line.year
Average: 4.89 E-4 per reactor-line.year
Vapour Cloud Explosions : a real risk in Total Petrochemicals
Total Petrochemicals : one VCE every 80 years
9 20050406, FABIG meeting
Some characteristics of petrochemical onshore installations in relation to VCE hazards
• Large congested areas. A typical congested volume of a large steam cracker could be 150 m x 80 m x 15 m
• Large quantities of flammable materials. A typical major vapour cloud can contain 10 – 50 tons of flammableproducts
• Several zones with dense congestion
10 20050406, FABIG meeting
Some characteristics of petrochemical onshore installations in relation to VCE hazards
11 20050406, FABIG meeting
Some characteristics of petrochemical onshore installations in relation to VCE hazards
12 20050406, FABIG meeting
VCE approach in onshore industry
• The major concern for onshoreinstallations has been the offsite risk;
• Seveso legislation put emphasis on accident prevention (for onsite andoffsite people) and effect mitigation for off site people
• Simple methods (TNT equivalent, ME, Baker Strehlow, etc.) allow goodpredictions for damage potential in thefar field
Offsite property damage cost
of Toulouse accident is
currently estimated at 1,8 G€
33
31
13 20050406, FABIG meeting
Simple methods(TNT equivalent, ME) give a goodidea for the far fieldblast load potential
Overpressure-distance for case "a" and case "b"
(ME method & TNT equivalent)
10
100
1000
10000
100000
10 100 1000
Distance (m)
Ov
erp
res
su
re (
mb
arg
)
ME-5a ME-5b ME-7a ME-7b ME-10a
ME-10b TNTa TNTb FLACS
14 20050406, FABIG meeting
BP-Amoco Refinery Texas City explosion23th of March 2005
1
10
100
1000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Distance from Cloud Epicentre (m)
Calc
ula
ted
Bla
st
Overp
ressu
re (
mb
arg
)
ME curve 5
ME curve 6
ME curve 7
ME curve 8-10
15 20050406, FABIG meeting
Conclusions
• The situation till say 5 years ago was:
Simple methods allowed to cope with the main concerns (i.e.offsiterisk assessment)
Onshore hydrocarbon process industries did not make the sameprofits as offshore facilities and advanced technologies (3D modelling) were expensive
• Even today there is still an important gap between explosion research (theoretical and experimental investigations) andapplication of this research in the plants
• Accidents like Skikda clearly demonstrate the necessity to:
Use advance technology for onshore plants;
16 20050406, FABIG meeting
Vision of Total Petrochemicals
• Accidents like Skikda clearlydemonstrate the necessity to perform risk assessments ofexplosion effects in the nearfield;
• The near field can only bestudied by means of advancedtechnologies
Technology
Investment
Advanced
modelling
Simple
empirical
correlations
Computational
Fluid Dynamics
• The results of extensive research that has been done over the last 30 yearsshould be applied in the field.
• There is a enormous amount of data and knowledge available but large parts of it remain within a select group of experts;
17 20050406, FABIG meeting
Skikda, Algeria, Jan 20, 2004
Damage:
23 workers were killed.
9 were missing.
74 were injured.
$800,000,000 (U.S.) estimated property damage.
Quote from LNGWM Alert,
Jan 22, 2004
“The fact that the boiler explosion caused damage to the nearby process equipment raises questions about separation distances in this 1970s vintage process facility”
1 FABIG Technical Meeting – 6th and 7th of April 2005
FABIG Technical Meeting – April 2005
Probabilistic Explosion Analysis
in an Onshore Plant
Presented by Pol Hoorelbeke,
Jérôme Renoult & Robert Brewerton
2 FABIG Technical Meeting – 6th and 7th of April 2005
GexCon is...
Clients
ProcessSafety Dept
International, independent Analyst Alliance Established through Research Institute CMI 1970s Experienced consultants within ATEX/Seveso II, QRAs, EPAs, hazid/hazop and other diciplines Development, sale and support of advanced CFD software with world-wide distribution Protective equipment & system testing and certification
SimulationSoftware
R&DDept
GasExplosion &
Fire Consulting
Dept
Xafe AS(Stavanger)
Lilleaker Consulting
(Oslo)
Associated partnersGexCon AS
A company that offers complete services towards process industries on explosion safety and fire
3 FABIG Technical Meeting – 6th and 7th of April 2005
GexCon provides...• First class competent consultants and project managers
– Cross-diciplinary and fundamental background and approach
– Reputable and in-depth competence – expert level
• Oil and gas safety assessments– QRAs for Topsides, incl. FPSOs/FSOs
– CFD and qualitatively based risk assessments - onshore installations incl. transport systems
– Design Accidental Load (DAL) analysis
• Dust fire and explosion risk– ATEX Explosion Protection Services
– Design Accidental Load
– Area Classifications
– CFD based and qualitative Risk assessments for process facilities and transport systems