Exploring the Future of Exploring the Future of Science and Technology Science and Technology Paul Schumann Paul Schumann Glocal Vantage, Inc. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
Exploring the Future of Exploring the Future of Science and TechnologyScience and Technology
Paul SchumannPaul Schumann
Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.
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TopicsTopics
❚ The FutureThe Future❚ Types of FuturesTypes of Futures❚ Insight Into the FutureInsight Into the Future
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TopicsTopics
❚ The FutureThe Future❚ Types of FuturesTypes of Futures❚ Insight Into the FutureInsight Into the Future
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Types of FuturingTypes of Futuring
Future 1Future 1
Future 2Future 2
TodayToday
NormativeNormative
ProjectiveProjective
What are What are possible possible futures?futures?Can we find Can we find a path to get a path to get to those to those futures?futures?
What is the What is the trend?trend?What may What may affect the affect the trend?trend?What are the What are the potential potential futures?futures?
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TopicsTopics
❚ The FutureThe Future❚ Types of FuturesTypes of Futures❚ Insight Into the FutureInsight Into the Future
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The Four FuturesThe Four Futures
❚ SimpleSimple❚ CyclicalCyclical❚ ChaoticChaotic❚ ComplexComplex
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The Four FuturesThe Four Futures
❚ SimpleSimple❚ CyclicalCyclical❚ ChaoticChaotic❚ ComplexComplex
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The Four FuturesThe Four Futures
❚ SimpleSimple❚ CyclicalCyclical❚ ChaoticChaotic❚ ComplexComplex
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The Four FuturesThe Four Futures
❚ SimpleSimple❚ CyclicalCyclical❚ ChaoticChaotic❚ ComplexComplex
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The Four FuturesThe Four Futures
❚ SimpleSimple❚ CyclicalCyclical❚ ChaoticChaotic❚ ComplexComplex
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The Four FuturesThe Four Futures
❚ SimpleSimple❚ CyclicalCyclical❚ ChaoticChaotic❚ ComplexComplex
❚ First Industrial Revolution First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860)(1760 - 1860)
❚ Second Industrial Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950)Revolution (1860 - 1950)
❚ Third Industrial Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020)Revolution (1950 - 2020)
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The Four FuturesThe Four Futures
❚ SimpleSimple❚ CyclicalCyclical❚ ChaoticChaotic❚ ComplexComplex
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The Four FuturesThe Four Futures
❚ SimpleSimple❚ CyclicalCyclical❚ ChaoticChaotic❚ ComplexComplex
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The Four FuturesThe Four Futures
❚ SimpleSimple❚ CyclicalCyclical❚ ChaoticChaotic❚ ComplexComplex
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The Four FuturesThe Four Futures
❚ SimpleSimple❚ CyclicalCyclical❚ ChaoticChaotic❚ ComplexComplex
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 5.25 5.75 6.25 6.75
Earthquake Magnitude
Nu
mb
er
of
Ea
rth
qu
ak
es
EarthquakesEarthquakes
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TopicsTopics
❚ The FutureThe Future❚ Types of FuturesTypes of Futures❚ Insight Into the FutureInsight Into the Future
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Driving ForcesDriving Forces
❚ DemographicDemographic❚ SociopoliticalSociopolitical❚ TechnologicalTechnological❚ EconomicEconomic
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Driving ForcesDriving Forces
❚ DemographicDemographic❚ SociopoliticalSociopolitical❚ TechnologicalTechnological❚ EconomicEconomic
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Technology Life CycleTechnology Life Cycle
❚ Nonproductive (25 years)Nonproductive (25 years)❚ Counter Productive (25 years)Counter Productive (25 years)❚ Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 Hyperproductive and Transformational (25
years)years)
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TransformationTransformation
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Transistor
Computer
Integrated Circuit
Modem
Time Sharing
ARPANET
Microprocessor
PC
WWW Open Source
InternetNon Productive
Counter Productive
Hyper Productive
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The Real Costs of The Real Costs of Information TechnologyInformation Technology
* Schumann & Prestwood, Leadership in the Interactive Age, 1995
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TechnologicalTechnological
❚ Infocom Infocom TechnologiesTechnologies❙ InternetInternet❙ Personal DevicesPersonal Devices❙ Wireless DigitalWireless Digital❙ Location SensorsLocation Sensors❙ Embedded Infocom Embedded Infocom
DevicesDevices❙ New Software New Software
ApplicationsApplications
❚ GenomicsGenomics❚ NanomaterialsNanomaterials❚ NanomachinesNanomachines
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TechnologicalTechnological
❚ Infocom Infocom TechnologiesTechnologies❙ InternetInternet❙ Personal DevicesPersonal Devices❙ Wireless DigitalWireless Digital❙ Location SensorsLocation Sensors❙ Embedded Infocom Embedded Infocom
DevicesDevices❙ New Software New Software
ApplicationsApplications
❚ GenomicsGenomics❚ NanomaterialsNanomaterials❚ NanomachinesNanomachines
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New Software ApplicationsNew Software Applications
❚ BlogsBlogs❚ Survey/Poll ToolsSurvey/Poll Tools❚ WikisWikis❚ Podcasting/Audio BlogsPodcasting/Audio Blogs❚ Vlogs (video blogs)/VideocastingVlogs (video blogs)/Videocasting❚ StreamingStreaming❚ Collaborative SpacesCollaborative Spaces❚ WebinarsWebinars❚ Affinity SystemsAffinity Systems❚ Games/SimulationsGames/Simulations❚ Integrated SystemsIntegrated Systems
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TechnologicalTechnological
❚ Infocom Infocom TechnologiesTechnologies❙ InternetInternet❙ Personal DevicesPersonal Devices❙ Wireless DigitalWireless Digital❙ Location SensorsLocation Sensors❙ Embedded Infocom Embedded Infocom
DevicesDevices❙ New Software New Software
ApplicationsApplications
❚ GenomicsGenomics❚ NanomaterialsNanomaterials❚ NanomachinesNanomachines
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Surveillance TechniquesSurveillance Techniques
❚ ScanningScanning❚ MonitoringMonitoring❚ TrackingTracking
Moving away
Moving tangentially
Moving towards
Not moving, getting larger
Not moving, getting smaller
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Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.
❚ PO Box 161475PO Box 161475❚ Austin, TX 78716Austin, TX 78716❚ (512) 632-6586(512) 632-6586❚ [email protected]@glocalvantage.com❚ www.glocalvantage.comwww.glocalvantage.com❚ http://incollaboration.comhttp://incollaboration.com❚ Twitter: innovant2003Twitter: innovant2003
Paul SchumannPaul Schumann
❚ Futurist and innovation consultantFuturist and innovation consultant❚ Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic
intelligence systemsintelligence systems❚ Web 2.0 tools & technologiesWeb 2.0 tools & technologies❚ Application of web 2.0 to democratic processesApplication of web 2.0 to democratic processes❚ Broad perspectives on the futureBroad perspectives on the future❚ ServicesServices
❙ Strategic market research & technology forecastingStrategic market research & technology forecasting❙ Intelligence systems consultingIntelligence systems consulting❙ Seminars, webinars & presentationsSeminars, webinars & presentations
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even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage
Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.