Exploring energy futures for remote Australian communities

Exploring energy futures for remote Australian communities

In partnership with CSIRO Ecosystem sciences / climate adaptation flagship

Tira Foran (on behalf of David Fleming, Bruno Spandonide, Rachel Williams, Digby Race)

May 2014

Research questions

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• What innovative ways do people use or save energy in remote Australia? How do these practices make it easier to live in remote Australia?

• Will these practices still work in the future? Which practices work the best in across a range of different futures?

• What do governments and other relevant bodies need to know about these practices?

Project design

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Conceptual foundations

“Taking into account future uncertainties, we want to develop a collaborative understanding of how alternative energy-related practices may impact on the future liveability of selected communities in remote Australia, focusing on housing, enterprises and mobility.”

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Practices

Common Understandings (waste, luxury,

need)

Practical knowledge (how to get

things done)

Materials & infrastructure

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Innovation also occurs around conventional energy significant offshore gas geothermal solar

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Innovation: learning (not invention)

Common Understandings (waste, luxury,

need)

Practical knowledge (how to get

things done)

Materials & infrastructure

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ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITIES

(7) Advocacy (1) Technology &

practice development

(2) Knowledge creation

(3) Knowledge diffusion (through networks), setting

expectations

(4) POLICY FORMULATION

(5) Market formation

(6) Market-based resource Allocation

(by a range of actors)

non-market based allocation

One view of innovation (after Hekkert et al. 2007)

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Constraints on innovation

Social rules, values, belief systems

Planning & regulationEnergy, transport& water, housing

E Citizen influenceconstrained by political opportunities, enabled by social movements

Livelihoods & Lifestyles

Power stationsHomes, vehicles

Innovation always takes place within a particular regime

C Consumerinfluence

D Developer influence

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Visions Scenarios

Thinking about alternative futures

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Visions – technical

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Visions – social

‘GREAT TRANSITION’ SCENARIOS

Scenario approaches

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Understanding that emerges from a participatory, knowledge-seeking process:

• Mutual understanding • Shared understanding • Consensus-based policy recommendations?

Drivers of collaborative approaches

• Awareness of limits of traditional governance • Interdependency • Complexity

Collaborative understanding

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Taking into account future uncertainties, we want to develop a collaborative understanding of how alternative energy-related systems of provisioning may impact on the future liveability of selected communities in remote Australia, focusing on housing, enterprises and mobility.

Collaborative understanding

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• CSIRO Ecosystem Science /Social Systems Institutions and Governance Research Group

• Dr Tira Foran Social Scientist

• t +61 2 6246 4308 • e [email protected]

•

• CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES / CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

Thank you

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5-7: Alice Solar Cities Program 8: Bushlight 9: Earthships, miscellaneous: Google Images 10: Earthships New Mexico: Martin Bond 11: Tim Acker (Warakurna Art Centre); NT Arts Infrastructure Projects (ANKAAA/Art Centres/ABA)Munupi Arts

visit (August 2009); Social network: Lejano, Ingram & Ingram (2013). 11, DesertSMART CoolMob 13: Commonwealth of Australia, Bureau of Energy and Resource Economics 15: Sitting in the shade: ABC.net.au 17: Zero Carbon Australia, DesertSMART CoolMob 19: http://scenarios2strategy.com/; http://decisionlab.org.uk/

Image credits

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Common Understandings (waste, luxury,

need)

Practical knowledge (how to get

things done)

Materials & infrastructure

Session 3 – innovative practices

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Session 3 – Suggestions • 3.1 Look at the list of practices (from Discussion Paper) • 3.2 Decide which practices the group would like to discuss further (either on list or not) • 3.3 Discuss what the practice means to you. Why do you consider it meaningful or

important? • Use the proposed indicators of sustainable consumption

• 3.4 Discuss how it emerged and how sustained (or not) • Consider role of culture, place, specific history; leadership, persuasion advocacy;

government support, entrepreneurship, market development . . . • Discuss the sequencing of these factors / processes

• 3.5 What inhibits this practice from spreading more widely • Consider different kinds of diffusion (in scope, in level) • Facilitator documents your discussion!

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Indicators of sustainable consumption Indicator Descriptions Examples 1. Localisation Contributing to more self-reliant local

economies Increasing local economic linkages Reducing length of supply chain

Self-provisioning / local provisioning of food, housing, energy

2. Reducing ecological & social footprint

Shifting consumption to reduce negative impacts on others Reducing energy and resource use

Adopting lower-carbon lifestyles; Voluntary simplicity

3. Community building

Nurturing inclusive & cohesive communities Effective support networks

desertSMART COOLmob http://desertsmartcoolmob.org/ Social networks around green building, permaculture

4. Collective action Collaboration leading to greater empowerment of people in systems of production and consumption

Local organizations and initiatives that offer spaces or platforms for learning, collaboration, and engagement with government and other actors in policy processes Carpooling systems that use governmental and non-governmental organisation fleets

5. Building new systems of provision

Developing new sets of beliefs, values, technical rules that are more sustainable (e.g. more localized, lower footprint, pro-community)

Gaining institutional acceptance of alternative housing, alternative food distribution, local currency systems

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Visions Scenario building

Session 4 – Thinking about futures

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Visions • Strengths • Limitations

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Examples of visions Proponent Vision

Zero Carbon Australia 2020 Stationary Energy Plan (Wright and Hearps 2011)

An ambitious plan to transform the Australian stationary energy sector into a 100% renewable energy (RE) system in ten years (2011–2020), for a cost of approximately $370 billion. Costs (including return on assets) could be covered by tariff increase of 6.5 c/kWh by 2020 60% of electricity to be generated from concentrating solar power (with molten salt storage), 40% from wind, and 2% from hydropower and crop-waste biomass during extended periods of concurrent low solar and wind availability. A new National Grid to be formed by connecting three existing large grids: National Electricity Market, South West Interconnected System, and North West Interconnected System. Northern Territory grids also transform to 100% RE, but remain isolated

desertSMART COOLmob (McClean and McHenry 2014)

100% of electricity in Alice Springs is generated from clean, renewable resources Distributed generation (high % of users generate their own electricity from community-based or individual systems) All residents in Alice Springs can afford electricity for basic needs, including vulnerable people and those on low incomes

Australian PV Association (Lovegrove et al. 2012)

By 2020, Alice Springs and Central Australia have developed into a world-leading solar energy centre: high levels of solar energy deployment, test & demonstration facilities, high levels of community support and engagement, best-practice financial and market mechanisms for solar, energy efficiency, and demand-side management.

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More examples of visions Proponent Vision

NT Government, (Green Energy Taskforce 2011)

Australian Government (Commonwealth of Australia 2014)

20% of electricity demand to be met by renewable and low emission sources by 2020

A similar target has been established at the national level (41,000 GWh by 2020, plus small scale solar generation) – to be achieved through the Renewable Energy Target (RET) scheme, which obliges wholesalers and some generators to purchase renewable energy certificates from approved providers (e.g. large and small-scale renewable power systems)

Pittock (2011) Remote Australia is self-sufficient in RE

Large-scale renewable-powered electricity exported to national grid

Remote communities and regional town benefit from construction, maintenance, and other associated economic development

Various (Seyfang 2009, Schor 2010, De Graaf and Batker 2011)

Liveability is maintained and enhanced through social innovations that are provided by voluntary social networks. Production of housing, food, energy is more distributed. People may work fewer hours in the formal market economy, and instead invest more time in building human and social capital needed for climate-adapted housing and food provisioning. Schor (2010) refers to this as “plenitude.” Seyfang (2009) terms it “New Economics”.

Innovative & energy efficient housing provision (This paper)

By 2050, houses are designed and built using passive cooling and heating principles, and achieve a minimum EER of 12 stars. Two new residential estates in Alice Springs developed that do not require centrally supplied power.

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Scenario approaches

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Scenario approaches

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Australian energy scenarios: driving forces (MMA & Strategis 2009; CSIRO 2013) • Social

• How receptive will consumers be towards demand-side options? • Economic

• How will the AUS economy grow over time? • Will there be a structural shift towards services?

• Policy & regulation • What is the strength of global and domestic policy commitment towards

reducing carbon emissions? • Techno-economic

• How will the cost of various electricity generating technologies change over time?

• What happens to fossil fuel prices

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MMA & Strategis (2009) Scenario framework Trends & Uncertainties

Scenario 1 (Fast rate of change)

Scenario 2 (An uncertain world)

Scenario 3 (A decentralised world)

Scenario 4 (Oil shock & adaptation)

Scenario 5 (Slow rate of change)

Common trends Above average temperatures, more frequent, prolonged droughts Renewable Energy Targets for electricity sector

(1) Economic growth High High Medium Low Low (mixed)

(2) Population growth High High Medium Medium Low

(3) Global carbon policy Strong (≤450 ppm)

Weak (≤550 ppm)

Strong (≤500 ppm)

Moderate (≤500 ppm)

Weak (≤550 ppm)

(4) Centralised supply-side response

Strong Strong Weak Moderate (renewable)

Moderate

(5) Decentralised supply-side response, Demand-side response

Strong Weak Strong Weak Weak

User attitudes Progressive Consumerist Conservative

Very progressive Progressive Conservative

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Housing system scenarios: driving forces (This project)

• Social • What are the prospects for grassroots innovation? LOW v. HIGH

• Economic • How will the state & local economy grow over time? LOW v. MODERATE

• Policy & regulation • What is the strength of state and local policy commitment towards energy

efficient building standards? LOW v. HIGH

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Scenario framework: housing & grassroots innovation in Alice Springs

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Storylines

• Isolated • Bartering • Boosted

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Session 5

Implications of uncertain futures for innovative practices

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Session 5 (Part 1) – Suggestions 5.1 Begin with the meaningful/important practices discussed in Session 3 5.2 Choose at least two of the future storylines (from MMA & Strategies and/or the

housing futures draft storylines) 5.3 Discuss what implications arise for the practice/process in a given future world

• In futures that appear favourable to the practice/process, what specific aspects of the future are favourable? What is the geog. scope of the practice? What about the scope of institutional support?

• In futures that appear unfavourable to the practice/process, what specific aspects of the future are unfavourable? What is the geog. scope of the practice? What kind of relations exist between the practice and dominant institutions?

• Be as specific / imaginative as you wish

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Session 5 (Part 2) – Suggestions

5.4 Do any practices appear to be viable in more than one future world? What is it that makes them viable?

5.5 What could be done to improve the viability of other important practices in adverse futures?

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• CSIRO Ecosystem Science /Social Systems Institutions and Governance Research Group

• Dr Tira Foran Social Scientist

• t +61 2 6246 4308 • e [email protected]

•

• CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES / CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

Thank you

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