Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme Collaborators: Bill Hall, Matt Garvert, Brian Colle, Axel Seifert, Istvan Geresdi,… WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop Hamburg, Germany 12-16 July 2004 Funded by FAA to support aircraft icing research Mount Washington, Oregon Gregory Thompson and Roy Rasmussen
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Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme
Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Gregory Thompson and Roy Rasmussen. Collaborators : Bill Hall, Matt Garvert, Brian Colle, Axel Seifert, Istvan Geresdi,…. Mount Washington, Oregon. Funded by FAA to support aircraft icing research. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitationusing an improved bulk microphysics scheme
Collaborators: Bill Hall, Matt Garvert, Brian Colle, Axel Seifert, Istvan Geresdi,…
WMO Cloud Modeling WorkshopHamburg, Germany 12-16 July 2004
Funded by FAA to support aircraft icing research
Mount Washington, Oregon
Gregory Thompson and Roy Rasmussen
WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop, 12-16 July 2004, Hamburg, Germany
Outline
• 2D simulations
• idealized flow simulations using 2-d version of MM5 (PSU/NCAR)
• 18 sensitivity experiments plus 4 different cloud depths
• bulk scheme tuned to Geresdi’s bin/explicit model
• key results from sensitivity experiments
• 3D case studies
• one of numerous cases from variety of field projects
• different precip formation mechanisms
• different geographic regions (continental/maritime)
• Future work
• verification data
• other bulk species (aggregates) or 2-moments?
• WRF model simulations
WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop, 12-16 July 2004, Hamburg, Germany
WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop, 12-16 July 2004, Hamburg, Germany
30 Jan 1998 – NASA Twin Otter flight
Canada
Lake Erie
PennsylvaniaOhio
WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop, 12-16 July 2004, Hamburg, Germany
30 Jan 1998 – Cleveland, OH sounding
WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop, 12-16 July 2004, Hamburg, Germany
30 Jan 1998 – cloud-top temperature
WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop, 12-16 July 2004, Hamburg, Germany
30 Jan 1998 – liquid water content
>95% of water mass in drops less than 30 microns
WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop, 12-16 July 2004, Hamburg, Germany
Future:
Expand analysis/verification:• how to verify snow/graupel mixing ratios• surface precipitation• composite pattern, lots of cases• include AIRS2 and other cases?
WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop, 12-16 July 2004, Hamburg, Germany
Future:
Expand analysis/verification:• how to verify snow/graupel mixing ratios• surface precipitation• composite pattern, lots of cases• include AIRS2 and other cases?
Comparisons to other models:• bin/explicit model of Geresdi• THIS WORKSHOP
WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop, 12-16 July 2004, Hamburg, Germany
Future:
Expand analysis/verification:• how to verify snow/graupel mixing ratios• surface precipitation• composite pattern, lots of cases• include AIRS2 and other cases?
Put into WRF model:• std-version + 2-moment• Hall/Seifert modifications
Comparisons to other models:• bin/explicit model of Geresdi• THIS WORKSHOP
WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop, 12-16 July 2004, Hamburg, Germany
Future:
Expand analysis/verification:• how to verify snow/graupel mixing ratios• surface precipitation• composite pattern, lots of cases• include AIRS2 and other cases?
Put into WRF model:• std-version + 2-moment• Hall/Seifert modifications
Other micro species:• aggregate category?• drizzle category?• hail category?
Comparisons to other models:• bin/explicit model of Geresdi• THIS WORKSHOP
WMO Cloud Modeling Workshop, 12-16 July 2004, Hamburg, Germany
Microphysics: more detailed reports
• Thompson, Rasmussen, & Manning, 2004: Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part I: Description and sensitivity analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 519-542.
• Thompson, Bernstein, & Rasmussen, 2004: Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part II: Case studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., in preparation.