Experiences from census taking in the Western Balkan countries (and Turkey) 2011 Census round

Experiences from census taking in the Western Balkan countries (and Turkey)

2011 Census round

24 february 2012

Pieter EveraersEurostatResources, Governance of the ESS, and international Cooperation

Structure of the presentation

Why is the census so important for these countries … and why is it so challenging to have a good census realised?

Some statistics describing these countries Civil society, EU membership prospects and state capacity International support and census monitoring Experiences on Census taking; country by country Overview of relevance, reliability and credibility of the census Again role of civil society, state capacity and EU membership

prospects

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The urgent need for good population statistics….

No census since many years Huge population changes due to periods of war and uncertainty New countries with new institutional structures with strong links

between population numbers and distribution of financial resources Potential EU membership and EU and global obligations Economic developments to be based on sound statistics Setting up a sound statistical system, the census as a base for

many other statistics

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… in a very challenging environment

Ethnic, religious, language and nationality diversity between but more important also within the countries

The problem of migration and refugees; place of usual residence, diaspora

State institutions weak or in early stages of development (Latent) regional and sub-regional conflicts The link between the population census and ‘agreements’ on local

and national government powers, resources, schools, language etc. (statistics as part of politics)

Weak (young) statistical offices, old structures, lack of expertise

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Ethnic and religious diversity (civil society)

Some very young countries, no functioning social structures Old and new structures conflicting or cooperating Diversity of population groups, diaspora, huge reliance on

remittances Low trust in society in general Large numbers of people to reside outside the country Relatively poor population especially in rural areas Very specific population groups (Roma)

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EU membership

Candidate and pre candidates members Schumann principle, sharing to increase wealth and well being Membership based on contributions and subsidies, funds based on

sound and harmonised statistics Acquis communautaire (and on statistics)

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Organisation of the government (state capacity)

Governmental structures in development/under (re-)construction Statistical offices from old Yugoslavian system to modern

(independent) statistical offices Statistical law and law on census to be developed Census experience in the statistical office very limited, also financial

resources limited In some countries relatively low trust in government and statistics

(confidentiality problems) Many other priorities (energy, highways, etc) other than statistics

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The organisation of monitoring

On explicit request or based on strong advise Monitoring to steer support or to guarantee credibility Via light peer reviews or large international monitoring operations Concentrated on a specific element or all over the process EU driven or with wide international support With a political component or purely technical

Five technical coordination meetings (sharing experiences and knowledge)

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Situation and characteristics of census per country: Croatia

Traditional face to face, OCR September 2011, 4 weeks 1-31 Oktober 14000 enumerators, budget 21 million, no international donors, per

capita 5.4 Euro Communication and outreach 2.2 % Questions on language and ethnicity, no real problems

No big problems in the field and analysis, some unrest about total costs

No monitoring Successfully finished, consolidation of NSI position

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Situation and characteristics of census per country: Montenegro

Traditional face to face, manual data entry 31 of March 2011, 2 weeks 3900 enumerators, budget 3.2 million, no international funding, per capita

5.1 Euro Communication and outreach, 3.0% Questions on ethnicity etc, problems but via campaigns reasonably solved,

some issues on the final results

Some problems on language issues Light monitoring focused on building confidence and emphasis on

communication. High political commitment

Successfully finished, strongly contributed to strengthen statistics

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Situation and characteristics of census per country: Serbia

Traditional face to face, OCR 30 september 2011, 2 weeks 1-14 Oktober 46000 enumenrators, 25 million, donors from EU, 3.4 Euro per

capita Communication and outreach 1.0 % Questions on ethnicity etc, no real problems

Severe funding problems leading to delay Boycott, non response in municipalities with Albanian population International support but no monitoring Successfully finished

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Situation and characteristics of census per country: Albania

Traditional face to face, OCR 30 september 2011, 4 weeks 1-31 oktober 12000 enumerators, 17 million Euro, several donors, 5.4 Euro per capita Communication and outreach 3.5 % Questions on religion in Greek dominated areas problematic, some strong

political interventions

Problems with Greek minority 6 months delay because of late preparation census law International support and consultancy/monitoring, coaching on key functions Finally, successfully finished, good impact on statistical office

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Situation and characteristics of census per country: Kosovo (under UNSCR 1244/99)

Traditional face to face, manual data entry 31 March 2011, 2 weeks in april but extended with one week 5000 enumerators, 11.7 million, high financial international support, 5.0

Euro per capity Communication and outreach 9.0% Complex discussion on ethnicity and language, diaspora how to be

measured?

6 years of international political and technical support and monitoring, mainly technical and political, large observation operation,

Boycott/non participation in Northern municipalities and some regions Large impact on the statistical office, strong foundation now of official statistics

in society

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Situation and characteristics of census per country: former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

(fYRoM)

Traditional face to face, OCR 14000 enumerators, in teams from different population groups, final

costs not yet known, own state budget, costs per capita not known Planned 1 oktober, for three weeks Communication and outreach costs relatively low Very complex ethnic situation (relation to Ohcrid agreement)

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Situation and characteristics of census per country: former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

(fYRoM)

Ctd

Light monitoring mainly on the level of communication and outreach and political level

First delayed for 6 months, than Census operation stopped after one week, ethnic problems and communication problems in enumeration teams

Complex census law, state census committee with operational powers. Strong political interference via State Census Commission Unclear how to go ahead, (decouple from Ohcrid agreement)

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Situation and characteristics of census per country: Bosnia Herzegovina

Planned spring 2013, census law only very recently adopted Traditional face to face Complex ethnic situation, diaspora and link to powers (Dayton

agreement)

International monitoring foreseen, technical and political, observation in the field

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Situation and characteristics of census per country: Turkey

Register based census supplemented with surveys Oktober 2011

No problems known

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Overview of results (1) Relevance

Huge relevance of statistics confirmed for all these countries Many very important outcomes (population lower than expected,

less urbanisation, education and employment data, links to the agricultural census, etc)

Strong impact on position of statistics in society and on expertise and quality of the statistical office

Apparently no large return of people living in diaspora, could lead to an acceptance of the status quo in several countries.

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Overview of results (2) Reliability

Positive results in Croatia, Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Reliable for a part of the country in Kosovo (norther municipalities

not to be included)

Interviews and processing in general done in a very satisfactory manner

However, in several countries place of usual residence unclear how dealt with and how processed

Unclear if parts of diaspora are included

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Overview of results (3) Monitoring and credibility

Time consuming and relatively high costs operations in Kosovo and expected Bosnia Herzegovina

Instrument of light monitoring worked well in Montenegro, not in fYRoM

Main positive outcomes : Results are widely accepted and Strengthening statistical office and trust in statistics

Main negative outcome : Reliance on external support only temporarely and relative large emphasis on only one project

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Civil society, State capacity and EU membership

Mature civil society needed, social capital is an important precondition, but clearly countries their own responsibility

State capacity is essential, can be built up and (internationally) supported in its development

EU membership creates pre conditions on the state environment but is not a sufficient objective to assure a good and successful census

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Thank you

The Western Balkan countries and Turkey

Cyprus

Overview of the census as a data collection process

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3

1. All persons in BiH + all Bosnians abroad2. Enumerated population, present or absent3. Total resident population of BiH

Experiences from census taking in the Western Balkan countries (and Turkey)

2011 Census round

34

24 february 2012

Pieter EveraersEurostat

Resources, Governance of the ESS, and international Cooperation

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