DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report provides detailed statewide travel impact estimates for Washington from 1991 to 2012 and estimates of U.S. travel, derived primarily from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts. All estimates for 2012 are preliminary. The Washington State travel industry continued to show improvement in 2012, following the steep decline in travel in 2009 in the state and the nation. Perhaps most notably, travel-generated employment grew by a substantial 2.7 percent. Employment should continue to expand providing that visitation and spending continue to grow. Total Spending. Travel spending in Washington State was $16.9 billion in 2012. This represents a 4.4 percent increase over 2011 in current dollars and 2.6 percent inf real dollars (adjusted for inflation). In real dollars, this is the greatest increase in travel spending since 2005-06. Visitation. Visitation to Washington State also grew in 2012. The total number of overnight person-trips (36.4 million) increased by 2.1 percent. The preliminary estimate of visitor air travel on domestic flights to Washington (5.9 million) also increased by 2.1 percent. Room demand, as measured by Smith Travel Research increased by 3.3 percent for the year. Tax Receipts. As with the increase in travel spending, total local and state tax receipts generated by travel spending increased by 4.9 percent from 2011 to 2012. Lodging tax revenues increased by 7.8 percent. In 2012p, local and state tax revenues supported by the travel industry amounted to amounted to more than $1 billion. This is equivalent to $390 for every resident household. Employment. Travel-generated employment (153,300 in 2012p) increased for the second consecutive year following the steep decline brought on by the 2008-2010 recession. The rate of increase was 2.7 percent. International Travel. Spending by international visitors to Washington State was $1.9 billion in 2012p. This represents over 13 percent of all visitor spending in the state. Average Spending. Overnight visitors to Washington State spent, on average $98 per person-day and $299 per person-trip. Overnight visitors that stayed in hotels, motels and B&Bs spent $202 per person-day and $499 per person-trip. These overnight guests accounted for one-half of all visitor spending in the state.
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DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE II
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report provides detailed statewide travel impact estimates for Washington from 1991
to 2012 and estimates of U.S. travel, derived primarily from the Bureau of Economic
Analysis Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts. All estimates for 2012 are preliminary.
The Washington State travel industry continued to show improvement in 2012, following
the steep decline in travel in 2009 in the state and the nation. Perhaps most notably,
travel-generated employment grew by a substantial 2.7 percent. Employment should
continue to expand providing that visitation and spending continue to grow.
Total Spending. Travel spending in Washington State was $16.9 billion in 2012.
This represents a 4.4 percent increase over 2011 in current dollars and 2.6 percent
inf real dollars (adjusted for inflation). In real dollars, this is the greatest increase in
travel spending since 2005-06.
Visitation. Visitation to Washington State also grew in 2012. The total number of
overnight person-trips (36.4 million) increased by 2.1 percent. The preliminary
estimate of visitor air travel on domestic flights to Washington (5.9 million) also
increased by 2.1 percent. Room demand, as measured by Smith Travel Research
increased by 3.3 percent for the year.
Tax Receipts. As with the increase in travel spending, total local and state tax
receipts generated by travel spending increased by 4.9 percent from 2011 to 2012.
Lodging tax revenues increased by 7.8 percent. In 2012p, local and state tax
revenues supported by the travel industry amounted to amounted to more than $1
billion. This is equivalent to $390 for every resident household.
Employment. Travel-generated employment (153,300 in 2012p) increased for the
second consecutive year following the steep decline brought on by the 2008-2010
recession. The rate of increase was 2.7 percent.
International Travel. Spending by international visitors to Washington State was
$1.9 billion in 2012p. This represents over 13 percent of all visitor spending in the
state.
Average Spending. Overnight visitors to Washington State spent, on average $98
per person-day and $299 per person-trip. Overnight visitors that stayed in hotels,
motels and B&Bs spent $202 per person-day and $499 per person-trip. These
overnight guests accounted for one-half of all visitor spending in the state.
DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 1
I. U.S. TRAVEL
DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 2
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12p
Touri
sm O
utp
ut
(Bil
lions)
Current
Real
$580
$600
$620
$640
$660
$680
$700
$720
09-2 09-4 10-2 10-4 11-2 11-4 11-2
Rea
l Touri
sm O
utp
ut
(Bil
lions)
Year-Quarter
All of the estimates in this section are preliminary. The estimates for spending and
employment were made by Dean Runyan Associates and are based on three
quarters of data. International arrival data was available only through August of
2012.
The following two graphs are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel
and Tourism Satellite Accounts.1 Both graphs show direct tourism output for the
United States – spending by domestic and international visitors.
1 See www.bea.gov/industry/index.htm. Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates
and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates.
Spending by domestic
and international visitors
was $856 billion in
2012(preliminary) in
current dollars. This
represents a 5.2 percent
increase over 2011.
When adjusted for
changes in prices
(constant dollars),
spending increased by
2.7 percent – compared
to a 3.2 percent increase
from 2010 to 2011. In
real terms, tourism
output has still not
recovered from the steep
decline from 2007 to
2009.
Real travel spending has
increased in every
quarter since the third
quarter of 2009. The
average quarterly rate of
increase during this
period has been 0.7
percent. The average
quarterly rate of decrease
from 2008-Q1 to 2009-
Q2 was 2.8 percent.
Annual Direct Travel Spending in U.S., 2000-12p
Direct Travel Spending in U.S.
2009-Q1 to 2011-Q3 Annualized Seasonally Adjusted in 2005 Dollars
Recent travel trends in Washington State have been similar to national trends. Visitor
spending in the state increased by 4.4 percent from 2011 to 2012 (preliminary). In real
dollars (adjusted for inflation, travel spending increased by 2.6 percent (see first graph,
page 7).
Local and state tax revenues, which are primarily comprised of sales taxes, grew by 5.5
percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.
The preliminary estimate of travel-generated employment shows a 2.7 percent increase
from 2011 to 2012, following a 1.8 percent increase the previous year. The growth in jobs
is encouraging given the sharp decline in employment during the recent recession and
moderate increases in travel spending over the past three years. Travel-generated
employment should continue to expand as visitation to destinations within the state grows.
DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 7
Real
Current
$10
$11
$12
$13
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12p
Trav
el
Spe
nd
ing
(Bill
ion
s)
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12p
Vis
itor
Arr
ival
s (M
illi
ons)
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12p
Ove
rnig
ht
Per
son-T
rips
(Millio
ns)
WASHINGTON STATE TRAVEL TRENDS
Visitor Air Arrivals to Washington State
Domestic Flights
Washington State Overnight Visitor Volume Person-Trips
Travel Spending in Washington State Real and Current Dollars
The first graph expresses travel
spending in Washington State in
current dollars (no adjustment for price
changes) and inflation-adjusted real
dollars. Real travel spending is now
slightly above the previous high in
2007.
Note: Travel spending was adjusted with a composite of price indices for the West Urban CPI, and, for Washington State, lodging rates from Smith Travel Research, gasoline prices reported by the Energy Information Administration and airfares from the Department of Transportation.
Visitor volume, as measured by the
number of overnight person-trips to
Washington State shows a similar
pattern. Differences are due to the
composition of visitor volume (about
one-half stay overnight in the unpaid
accommodations but contribute
proportionately less to spending), the
effect of price changes, and the
measure of visitor volume (trips versus
nights).
Note: Visitor volume estimates calculated by Dean Runyan Associates. See appendix for data sources.
Finally, visitor air arrivals also reflect
the overall trend in real travel
spending. Most visitors that travel by
air stay in commercial lodging or have
long lengths of stay in private homes.
Note: Estimates of visitor arrivals calculated by Dean Runyan Associates from Department of Transportation Origin and Destination Survey.
DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 8
Washington34%
Other U.S.55%
International11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
*All Trips
Nights
Other U.S.
Washington
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
$1.8
$2.0
00 02 04 06 08 10 12p
Inte
rnat
ional
Shar
e
Inte
rnat
ional
Spen
din
g
(Bil
lions
of
Rea
l 2012 $
US) Spending Share
INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL TO WASHINGTON STATE AND VISITOR ORIGIN
Visitor Spending in Washington
State by Origin (2007-2011 Average)
Domestic Travel to Washington State (2007-2011 Average)
International Travel Spending in Washington State
In recent years, residents of other
states and countries have accounted
for about two-thirds of all visitor
spending in Washington State –
eleven percent international and
fifty-five percent other states in the
U.S. (See pie chart, left.)
Even though residents of
Washington State generate only
about one-third of all visitor
spending, they comprise almost
two-thirds of all trips to destinations
within Washington State (bottom
bar, middle graph). Most spending
is attributable to overnight stays,
and out-of-state visitors tend to have
longer lengths of stay.
Note: The estimates for the first two graphs on this page were calculated by Dean Runyan Associates from TNS TravelsAmerica survey data.
As with the larger U.S. (see graph
preceding section), both absolute
international spending and the
international share of Washington
travel spending have increased
during the past three years.
Favorable exchange rates with
respect to Asia and Canada have
been factors as well as increased
visitation.
Note: Estimates by Dean Runyan Associates based on Bureau of Economic Analysis International Transactions and arrival data from the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries.
DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 9
Aerospace,
$11.8
Software,
$10.6*Other
Manf., $7.0
Food, $6.2
Travel, $4.6
Wood, $2.3
Micro-Elec.,
$2.1
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Software
Agric. & Food Prod.
Forestry & Wood Prod.
*Other Manf.
Travel
Aero-Space
Micro-Elec.
WASHINGTON STATE EXPORT INDUSTRIES
Exports are not necessarily more important than locally traded goods and services.
However, diverse export-oriented industries in any economy are a source of strength – in
part because they generate income that contributes to the development of other local
services and amenities. Such industries characterize the “comparative advantage” of the
local economy within larger regional, national, and global markets.
As shown in the graph below, while the travel industry ranks in the middle with respect to
earnings growth since 2006, it has been more stable than most other industries.
Earnings of Washington State
Export-oriented Industries 2011 (Millions)
Earnings of Washington State Export-oriented Industries Year 2006 = 100
Export-oriented industries are those
industries that primarily market their
products and services to other
regions, states or nations.
Agriculture, extractive industries
(forestry, mining) and manufacturing
are the best examples of export-
oriented industries. In addition,
professional and business services
are often export-oriented. The travel
industry is also an export-oriented
industry because goods and services
are sold to visitors, rather than
residents. The travel industry injects
money into the local economy, as do
the exports of other industries.
Estimates calculated by
Dean Runyan Associates
from earnings and payroll
data reported by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
*Other Manufacturing
includes all manufacturing
industries not included in
aerospace, agriculture/food,
forestry & wood, and
microelectronics. Food &
beverage processing
included in
Agriculture/Food category.
Wood and paper products
included in Forestry & Wood category.
DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 10
Federal
$831
Local
$388
State
$655
Local Sales
$187
State Sales
$489
Lodging
$145
Auto
Rental$30
*PFC
$27
Motor Fuel
$107
B & O
$59
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12p
Tax
Re
ceip
ts (
Mill
ion
s)
WA State Conv. Center
Tour. Promotion Area
Additional 2-5%
State-Shared 2%
Millions Percent
WA State Conv. Center $61.8 42.7%
State-Shared 2% $44.6 30.8%
Additional 2-5% $31.2 21.6%
Tour. Promotion Area $7.1 4.9%
Total Revenues $144.7 100.0%
Lodging Tax Revenues, 2012p
TRAVEL-GENERATED TAX REVENUE
Travel spending in Washington state
generated $1.9 billion in local, state, and
federal tax collections in 2012. The
estimated federal tax receipts are comprised
of the motor fuel excise tax, airline ticket
taxes, and payroll and income taxes.1
More than $1 billion local and state tax
revenues were collected in 2012. The largest
share of these tax receipts was attributable to
the state sales tax ($489 million). Receipts
from local sales tax receipts ($187 million),
lodging taxes ($145 million) and motor fuel
($107 million) were also significant sources
of tax revenue.
Travel-generate local and state tax revenues
represent roughly five percent of all local and
state tax revenues, exclusive of property tax
collections. Visitor spending generates
almost $400 in tax revenue for each
Washington household. Note: *PFC refers to the Passenger Facility Charges collected at Washington state airports.
Transient Lodging Tax Receipts in Washington State
Local, State & Federal Travel-Generated Tax Revenues, 2012p