Executive Summary India Solar Market Update – Q1 2017 LEAD PARTNER
Executive Summary India Solar Market Update – Q1 2017
LEAD PARTNER
www.mercomindia.com
Lead Partner
Oriano Solar specializes in Solar EPC (Turnkey and BoS) for Utility Scale Solar Power Plants, Solar farms and Rooftops. Oriano
has executed 85+ MW of solar projects (including turnkey EPC for 23 MW single location utility-scale PV power plant in
Pavagada, Karnataka).
This includes 10+ MW of Rooftops for leading MNCs and India’s Top 100 companies across 7 states. Oriano has a current EPC
pipeline of 100+ MW Utility-Scale and 20+ MW of Rooftops.
Oriano was awarded “Energy Startup of the Year” at the Entrepreneur India 2016 Awards in media association with ET NOW.
Oriano was also selected as the “TECH30 company of the year” at TechSparks 2016 by YourStory.
Oriano Solar recently raised equity and venture debt from SIDBI Venture Capital.
Website : www.orianosolar.com
Email : [email protected]
Phone no. : 9619571288
www.mercomindia.com
India Solar Demand Forecast
6 12 172
2,133
4,036
9,032
180
275
780
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Cu
mu
lati
ve In
stal
lati
on
s (M
W)
An
nu
al In
stal
lati
on
s (M
W)
Annual Rooftop Solar Installations (MW)
Annual Utility-scale Solar Installations (MW)
Cumulative Solar Installations (MW)
Source: Mercom India (Mar 2017)
India Solar Demand Forecast (MW)
4,311
9,812
2,313
9851,044998
• The Indian solar sector is seeing strong activity with cumulative
installations reaching approximately 12.8 GW at the end of Q1
2017.
• Utility-scale projects account for about 12 GW and rooftop
installations account for almost 850 MW of the installed capacity.
• Mercom is forecasting calendar year 2017 installations to reach
approximately 10 GW as India becomes one of the most important
solar markets in the world, after China and the United States.
• The pipeline for utility-scale projects that are under development is
currently at about 12.6 GW and there are approximately 6.4 GW of
tenders pending auction.
• Large-scale projects under the National Solar Policy (NSM or
JNNSM) lead in installations followed by states like Tamil Nadu,
Gujarat, Telangana and Karnataka.
• In terms of pipeline, most of the under development and tendered
projects are coming up under the NSM program in various phases
and batches, followed by projects under state policies led by
Telangana, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh.
www.mercomindia.com
All India Cumulative Utility-scale Solar Installations by Policy Type
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
All India Cumulative Utility-scale Solar Installations By Policy Type (MW)
Cumulative Solar Installations ~12 GW
Source: Mercom Capital Group (Dec 2016)Source: Mercom India (Mar 2017)
www.mercomindia.com
Policy Updates
12,00812,581
6,426
In-Operation Under Development Tendered
India: Utility-Scale Solar Projects by Status (MW)
Source: Mercom India (Mar 2017)
Policy Updates:
So far, 2.6 GW of solar projects have been commissioned under various phases
of (Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission) JNNSM: Migration program (PV - 48
MW and CSP – 2.5 MW), Phase I Batch 1 (PV – 140 MW and CSP – 200 MW),
Phase I Batch 2 (PV – 330 MW) and Phase II Batch 1 (PV – 680 MW).
JNNSM - Phase II Batch 2 State Specific Bundling Program (NTPC)
The MNRE has specified 3,000 MW of PV projects under this program,
implemented by NTPC through open competitive bidding. These projects are
spread across states including Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Telangana
and Uttar Pradesh.
JNNSM - Phase II Batch 3 (SECI)
Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) has called for tenders amounting to
2,510 MW under JNNSM Phase II Batch 3 - State Specific VGF Program.
JNNSM - Phase II Batch 4 (SECI)
Under this program 5,000 MW of grid-connected solar PV projects on a build, own
and operate basis with VGF benefits are to be developed. Tenders for 2,900 MW
projects under this program have been issued.
JNNSM - Phase II Batch 5 (SECI – CPSU)
Batch 5 targets 1,000 MW grid-connected solar PV power projects by the Central
Public Sector Undertakings (CPSUs) and the Government of India organizations’
self-use or third-party sale or merchant sale.
www.mercomindia.com
India Utility-scale Cumulative Solar Installations by States
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
Goa
Chandigarh
New Delhi
Assam
Bihar
Uttarakhand
Puducherry
Andaman & Nicobar
Himachal Pradesh
Kerala
Haryana
West Bengal
Punjab
Chhattisgarh
Gujarat
Odisha
Uttar Pradesh
Maharashtra
Jharkhand
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Madhya Pradesh
Telangana
Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Projects Under Development
Projects Tendered, Pending Auctions
<100 MW
100-500 MW
500-1,200 MW
1,200-2,000 MW
>2,000 MW
Source: Mercom India (Mar 2017)
Solar Project Development Pipeline by State (MW)
www.mercomindia.com
Historical Average Module Spot Price Trends in China
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
Q1'2016 Q2'2016 Q3'2016 Q4'2016 Q1'2017
Indian Module ASP ($/W)
Chinese Modules ($/W)
Chinese Module ASPs in India are the Lowest in the World
Source: Mercom India (Mar 2017)
• Chinese module prices in India have continued to slide with average
selling prices coming to $0.32 (~₹20.68)/W in the first quarter of
2017, a drop of an 11 percent from $0.36 (~₹23.27)/W in Q4 2016.
• Chinese module prices have now fallen by about 33 percent in the
last 12 months, enabling the recent low bids of ₹3.30 (~$0.05)/kWh
and ₹3.15 (~$0.048)/kWh in Kadapa.
• The industry is expecting module prices to decline slightly in the
second quarter and a more pronounced decline in the second half of
the year after Chinese rush for installations slows down in June.
• Average Indian module prices were about 14 percent higher in Q1.
• Chinese tier 1 module ASPs were $0.30/W when we booked for
third quarter of 2017.
• Chinese tier 1 module quotes for Q4 2017 was in the $0.27-0.28
range.
www.mercomindia.com
Bidding Trends in Reverse Auctions
4.6
3
4.6
3
4.3
4 4.7
8
5.0
0
4.7
8
4.6
6 5.0
8
4.6
9
4.3
5
3.3
0
3.1
5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
NSM
PI B
1 (
Mah
)
NSM
PI B
2 (
Raj
)
Od
ish
a B
1
Kar
nat
aka
PI
MP
PI
Od
ish
a B
2
Ch
hat
tisg
arh
Kar
nat
aka
PII
MP
PII
Pu
nja
b P
I (C
1)
Pu
nja
b P
I (C
2)
Raj
asth
an
UP
B1
AP
PII
Bih
ar
Kar
nat
aka
PII
I
Tela
nga
na
PI
Utt
arkh
and
UP
B2
Kar
nat
aka
PIV
-No
v 14
MP
PII
I-Ju
l 15
Pu
nja
b P
II (
C1)
-Feb
15
Pu
nja
b P
II (
C2)
-Feb
15
Pu
nja
b P
II (
C3)
-Feb
15
Tela
nga
na
PII
G1-
Au
g 1
5
Tela
nga
na
PII
G2-
Au
g 1
5
UP
B3
-Sep
15
Pu
nja
b P
III-
Sep
15
Utt
arkh
and
(Ty
pe-
I)-N
ov
15
NSM
PII
B2
(AP
)-N
ov
15
NSM
PII
B2
(AP
)-D
ec 1
5
NSM
PII
B2
(Raj
)-Ja
n 1
6
NSM
PII
B2
(UP
)-Ja
n 1
6
Har
yan
a-Ja
n 1
6
NSM
PII
B2
(Kar
)-A
pr
16
NSM
PII
B2
(Tel
anga
na)
-May
16
Jhar
khan
d-M
ay 1
6
Kar
nat
aka
PV
(G
en)-
May
16
NSM
PII
B2
(Raj
)-Ju
l 16
Rew
a So
lar
Pro
ject
(M
P)
- Fe
b 1
7
NSM
PII
B2,
Kad
apa
(AP)
- A
pr
17
2010-11
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Low
Tar
iff/
Bid
s (₹
/kW
h)
Low Tariff (₹/kWh)
Source: Mercom India (Apr 2017)
Note: AP Phase II - The range of first-year tariff offered by the successful bidders was Rs.5.25-5.99/kWh with a 3% per annum escalation for the first 10 years, then flat thereafter. MP: Rewa Ultra Mega Solar project - low bid of Rs.2.97/kWh tariff escalating at Rs.0.05/kWh for 15 years. Levelized tariff comes to Rs. 3.30/kWh.
Lowest Solar Bids in Reverse Auctions in India (₹/kWh)
www.mercomindia.com
India Solar Cell and PV Module Manufacturing Capacity
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Solar Cell Capacity (MW)
PV Module Capacity (MW)
India: Solar Cell and PV Module Manufacturing Capacity as of March 2017 (MW)
MNRE Source: Mercom India (Mar 2017)
Installed capacity of domestic cells and modules in the country is estimated to be ~3 GW and ~8.4 GW respectively while operational capacity of solar cells and
modules is ~1.5 GW and 6.6 GW respectively as of March 2017.
www.mercomindia.com
Market Leaders
Our report includes top 10 market share rankings in MW for utility-scale project developers by installed capacity, utility-scale project developers by pipeline, inverter
suppliers by total capacity shipped, solar rooftop installers, Indian module and cell manufacturers with installed and operational capacity, module suppliers with cumulative
shipments, and top EPCs.
Top 5 Solar Project Developers
with Installed Capacity
Source: Mercom India (Mar 2017)
01Rank
02Rank
03Rank
04Rank
05Rank
Top 5 Solar Rooftop Installers
Source: Mercom India (Mar 2017)
01Rank
02Rank
03Rank
04Rank
05Rank
Top 5 Indian Solar Module
Manufacturers
Source: Mercom India (Mar 2017)
01Rank
02Rank
02Rank
02Rank
03Rank
Top 5 Solar EPC Players
Source: Mercom India (Mar 2017)
01Rank
02Rank
03Rank
04Rank
05Rank
www.mercomindia.com
State Policies
Updates: The government of Karnataka
announced amendments to the Karnataka
State Solar Policy 2014-21, increasing the
targeted solar capacity to 6,000 MW by March
of 2021.
Updates: The Andhra Pradesh Electricity
Regulatory Commission (APERC) has set the
state’s RPO for FY2017-2018 at nine percent,
of which the solar RPO is 3 percent.
Updates: The state government of Telangana
is expected to introduce an Equated Monthly
Installment (EMI)-based rooftop installation
program for individual consumers in the state.
Updates: The state recently concluded a 750
MW auction at Rewa Solar Park, where bids
reached a record low of ₹3.30 (~$0.494)/kWh
(levelized tariff over 25 years).
Karnataka
Andhra Pradesh
Telangana
Madhya Pradesh
Complete state by state updates are covered in our full report
Six states now have an installed solar capacity of over 1 GW, while the top ten states represent over 90 percent of the total installed capacity
1
Total Installations - 1,965 MW Total Installations - 1,721 MW Total Installations - 1,578 MW Total Installations - 1,439 MW Total Installations - 1,166 MW
Total Installations - 1,142 MW Total Installations - 904 MW Total Installations - 742 MW Total Installations - 406 MW Total Installations - 315 MW
Data from Mercom's India Solar Project Tracker
Karnataka
Gujarat Madhya Pradeh Punjab Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh
Telangana
Top 10 Solar States in IndiaState Ranking Based on Total Installed Utility-scale Solar as of Mar 2017
Andhra Pradesh Rajasthan Tamil Nadu1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9
12 GWCumulative Solar Capacity
2.5 GWSolar Installations Q1 2017
www.mercomindia.com
Table of Contents from Full Report
Key Findings…………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………. 5
Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………. 7
Solar Tenders and Auctions………………………………………..……………..……………………………… 13
Policy Updates………………………………………………………………………………………………….……… 18
Other Policies …………………………….................................................................................. 23
Large-scale Solar Update by State…………………………………….……..................................... 26
India: State Rooftop Net-Metering Policies……………………………………………………………….... 33
Tariff and Module Prices ………………………………………………………….................................... 38
Funding and M&A Activity in Q1 2017............................................................................ 51
Policy and Implementation Risks………………………………………………………………..….............. 54
Rooftop Solar………………………………………………..…………………………………..……..................... 59
Market Share…………………………………………………………………………..……………....................... 67
Quarterly Opinion Survey…………………………………………………………………………..................... 77
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List of Charts/Tables from Full Report
India Solar Demand Forecast (MW)……………………………………………………………..……………….. 7Installation and Forecast by Market Segment (MW)……………………..………………………………. 9All India Cumulative Utility-scale Solar Installations by Policy Type (MW)………………..…… 10
India Utility-scale Solar Project Pipeline (MW) …………………………………………...................... 10India Utility-scale Solar Project Pipeline by Policy (MW)…..………………………...................... 11India Utility-scale Cumulative Solar Installations by States (MW) …………......................... 12
Solar Project Development Pipeline by State (MW)……………………………………….................. 13State-wise Solar Project Development Pipeline…………………………………………….................. 14Solar Tenders and Auctions in India from Oct 2016 to Mar 2017 (in MW) …..................... 15
Solar Auctions in Q1 2017 ………......................................................................................... 16New Solar Tenders Announced in Q1 2017………………….………………………..…...................... 17Utility-scale Solar Projects by Status (MW)………………………..………………..……..................... 18
Status of Projects Under JNNSM Phase-II, Batch-5, CPSU Program…………........................ 20Target for Solar Projects to be Developed by the Ministry of Defense……………………....... 2050 MW Solar Projects Under Canal Top Program…………………..…….…………….................... 22
50 MW Solar Projects Under Canal Bank Program………………………………………………………… 22Disbursement of Subsidy…………………………………….……………………………………………………….. 23India: State Rooftop Net-Metering Policies………..………………............................................ 33
Chinese Module ASPs in India………………………………………………………………...……................. 38Domestic Interest Rates for Solar Project Financing (%)…………………………..……….…..….….. 39Lowest Solar Bids in Reverse Auctions in India (₹/kWh)………………………..………………….….. 40
Rewa Ultra Mega Solar Project: 750 MW Auction Result………………………………………………. 42A Comparison of the Lowest Bids in Solar Reverse Auctions in India……………………..….….. 43India Imports and Exports of Solar Cells and Modules…………………..………………….…….….…. 44
Country-wise Breakdown of Indian Solar Imports (%) FY2016-17 (April to January)…….…. 44Country-wise Breakdown of Indian Solar Exports (%) FY2016-17 (April to January)…….…. 44
Solar Power’s Share of Total Electricity Generation in India (Billion Units)………………...…. 45Electricity Generation from Renewable Energy Sources (Billion Units)………………………….….45India: UDAY Timeline……………………………………………………………………………..…………….……... 46
Clean Environment Cess Fund Status…………………………………………………….………………….…. 49Ministry-wise NCEF Fund Allocation by Year………………………………………………….………...…. 50India Solar Funding and M&A Transactions (Q4 2016 – Q1 2017)……………………………..…. 51
Q1 2017 – VC Funding Activity in India………………………………………………………..…………….…. 52Q1 2017 – Debt Financing Activity in India…………………………………………………..…………….…. 52Q1 2017 – Announced Project Funding Activity in India…………………………………..……….…. 53
States With Payment Delays for Solar and/or Wind Projects………………………………..………. 54Solar RPO Deficit % by State FY2016-17…………………………………………………………………….…. 57Cumulative Solar RPO Achievements (2.75%) up to 2016-17…………………………….………….. 58
Benchmark Cost for Grid Connected Rooftop and Small Solar Projects for 2017-18………. 61Achievement-Linked Incentives Applicable to All Government Institutions……………….…. 62Various Incentives and Subsidies Available for Distributed Solar Rooftop Projects………. 63
Solar Cell and PV Module Manufacturing Capacity as of March 2017 (MW)……………….…. 65Top 10 Utility-scale Project Developers with Installed Capacity (MW)……………………….…. 67Top 10 Utility-scale Project Developers with Under-development Pipeline (MW)……...…. 68
Top 10 Solar Inverter Suppliers in India (Cumulative Shipments in MW)……….…………….…. 69Top 10 Solar Rooftop Developers and EPC Companies in India (MW)……………………………. 70Top 10 Solar Module Manufacturers in India…………………………………………………………….…. 71
Top 10 Solar Cell Manufacturers in India…………………………………..……………………………….…. 72Top 10 Utility-scale EPC Players with Commissioned Capacity (MW)………………………….…. 73Top 10 Utility-scale Third Party EPC Players with Commissioned Capacity (MW)……….…. 74
Top 10 Solar Module Suppliers in India (Cumulative Shipments in MW)…………..……….…. 75Most Active Solar Project Investors………………………………………………….……………………….…. 76
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