04.02.2009 1 Executive Board meeting 4 February 2009 Difference between money market rates and expected key rates Percentage points. 5-day moving average 1 June 2007 – 2 February 2009 35 4 3 mth US 3 mth Euro area 3 4 12 mth US 12 mth Euro area 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 3 mth Euro area 3 mth UK 3 mth Norway 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 12 mth Euro area 12 mth UK 12 mth Norway 0 0,5 1 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 0 0,5 1 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 2 Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
15
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04.02.2009
1
Executive Board meeting4 February 2009
Difference between money market rates and expected key ratesPercentage points. 5-day moving average1 June 2007 – 2 February 2009
3 5
43 mth US3 mth Euro area 3
4 12 mth US12 mth Euro area
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5 3 mth Euro area3 mth UK3 mth Norway
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5 12 mth Euro area12 mth UK12 mth Norway
0
0,5
1
Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-080
0,5
1
Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08
2
Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
04.02.2009
2
500500CitigroupBank of America
S
Price of credit default insurance Large international banks. 5-year CDS prices. Basis points 1 January 2007 – 2 February 2009
UnemploymentLFS unemployment, registered unemployed, and registered unemployed and on labour market programmesPer cent. Seasonally adjusted. February 1997 – November 2008
1010LFS unemployment
4
6
8
4
6
8Registered unemployed and on labour market programmesRegistered unemployed
0
2
0
2
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
19
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank
Index of commodity consumption Volume. January 2004 = 100. Seasonally adjustedJanuary 2004 – December 2008
130
140
130
140
100
110
120
100
110
120
80
90
80
90
Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Source: Statistics Norway1) Based on production expectations, stocks of finished goods and total stocks of orders
House prices and credit to households12-month change. Per cent. January 2001 – January 2009
20
25
20
25
14
16
14
16House prices Credit to households (C2)
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
4
6
8
10
12
14
4
6
8
10
12
14
22
-10
-5
-10
-5
2001 2003 2005 2007 20090
2
4
0
2
4
2001 2003 2005 2007Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Assosiation of Real Estate
Agency Firms, FINN.no, ECON Pöyry and Norges Bank
04.02.2009
12
Market prices for commercial property and corporate debtAnnual rise in market prices and twelve-month change in debt. Per cent January 2001 – December 2008
6060 3030Market prices for commercial property1) Corporate debt
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
5
10
15
20
25
5
10
15
20
25
23
-30
-20
-10
-30
-20
-10
2001 2003 2005 2007-5
0
5
-5
0
5
2001 2003 2005 2007Sources: Statistics Norway, OPAK and Norges Bank
1) High-standard offices centrally located in Oslo.
Change in credit standards for loans to householdsPer cent
80100
80100
Factors affecting credit standards
60-40-200204060
60-40-20
0204060 Credit standards
Economic outlook Banks’ appetitefor risk Default
08 Q3
08 Q4
09 Q1
08 Q3
08 Q4
09 Q1
08 Q3
08 Q4
09 Q1
08 Q3
08 Q4
09 Q1
-100-80-60
-100-80-60
24
Source: Norges Bank
04.02.2009
13
80100
80100
Factors affecting credit standards
Change in credit standards for non-financialcorporationsPer cent
• local government• transport and communications projects• other building projects
• Tax cuts for the business sector (NOK 3.25 bn)
• Expansion of lending guarantee and investment schemes• Expansion of lending, guarantee and investment schemes(NOK 8 bn)
26
04.02.2009
14
Expected real return on the Government Pension Fund – Global and structural non-oil deficitIn billions of 2009-NOK. 2001 – 2009
120
140
120
140Structural deficit, stimulus package 2009
40
60
80
100
120
40
60
80
100
120 Structural non-oil deficit
4 pct. real return
0
20
0
0
20
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
27
Sources: National Budget for 2009 and Report to the Storting no. 37 (2008-2009).
Costs of money market funding and long-term fundingPer cent. Weekly figures. 3 January 2007 – 29 January 2009
1212Premium on long-term funding (5-year bank bond)
1)
4
6
8
10
4
6
8
10 Difference between 3-month money market rate and key policy rate
Key policy rate
1)
0
2
0
2
Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08
28
1) Effective 3-month NIBOR Sources: DnB NOR Markets and Norges Bank
04.02.2009
15
Key policy rate, money market rate1) and banks’ weighted lending rate on new loans2)
Per cent. 1 June 2007 – 2 February 2009
8
9
8
9Money market rateM t t
3
4
5
6
7
8
3
4
5
6
7
8 Mortgage rateKey policy rate
0
1
2
0
1
2
Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08
29
1) 3-month NIBOR.2) Interest rates on new mortgage loans of NOK 1m within 60% of purchase price with variable interest rate. Figures for the 20 largest banks, weighted according to market share.
Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi ASand Norges Bank
8
9
8
9
Key policy rateActual developments, projection and strategy interval. Per cent