Page 1
UNIVE RSIT ( )E I \\AIi \T M\N( )\
SHDIFR COLLEGE OF BUSINESSInternalional Excellence
The Outlook for Hawaii’sEconomy and Labor Market
Dr. Jack SuyderhoudShidler College of BusinessUniversity of Hawai’i at Mã[email protected]
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council
Page 2
Agenda
Current economic conditions
D Contributors to GDP
i Labor market trends
Forecasts
Features of the Hawaii labor market
Things that concern me
i External
i Internal
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 2
Page 3
Current EconomicConditions
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 3
Page 4
00%.1-i
01I.,
0-w
e6U
LI3
4U
&U
Od
IIUU
V
coC
D•
C%1CN
tCD
I-
-
a
C.?
•—.—
(saj)
9IO
(se)
g
tI,o
£IO[O
L IO
oi.o6O
O
gooLO
OK
9OO
sootvoo£O
O
•:O
O•
EIoo
ooo666
[
866I
L66
I
Ill.b
J
—
tU
•
Ew•
I...o
E-C
-0o
-
C1’U
o0
In>CE0C0ULU.4-
0a)1t)
aa)0
-D2cli>0z
I
Page 5
rDrivers of Hawaii’s EconomyHawaii Real GDP by Industry: 2013
Real estate and rental and ieaslng
Federal government
State and local government
Professional and business services
Accommodation and food services
Retail trade
Health care and social assistance
Construction
Transportation and warehousing
Whoiesaie trade
Finance and insurance
Utilities
information
Other services, except government
Manufacturing
Educational services
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Agriculture, forestry. fishing, and hunting
Mining
.1.
1. .7
17
O.6fl 0.4
0.1 0.1
142
Real GDP $70.1Bof Total Real GDP
Tourism consists of partial of other industries and contributed 16 855, of rea’ GOP in 2013Source: U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis
hesearch
Fconomic
DBEE.WNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 5
Page 6
Tourism Dependence Varies byCounty
Relative Importance of Tourism Sector1990 •2007 2014
15
1o
Ii
>Maui Kauai Hawaii Island Oahu State
Source: Author, using HTA and DBEDT dataNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 6
Page 7
Record State Visitor Arrivals 2016
j 2013 2014 <2015 2016
850,000
• 800,000
750,000
700,000
650,000EZ 600,000
550,000Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Hawaii Tourism AuthorityNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 7
Page 8
State Visitor Spending IncreasesMonthly State Visitor Spending Patterns, 2009-2016
Percent Change from Prior YearVisitor SDendinci ($mil, Seas. Adil (Left Axis I
30’YoL..Cua,
20%>-0
CCu
4fl0I -— IV /00
Ca)
-20%a,0
-30%
Source: Hawaii Tourism AuthorityHawaii Workforce Development Council
I
I I I I I I
cu cu aj cu Cu c
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I>1 0. >‘. 0. >i 0. >‘ 0. > 0. >Cu 0’ cu CUG) cu Cu 01 cu Cu 0’Cu Cu 0’ cu Cu
November 4, 2016 8
Page 9
z 0
Seas.
Ad
j.V
isit
or
Arr
ival
sas
%of
Jan.
320
08-
--
r’J
O.i
00
CD-
%)
O0
00
00
00
Jan-0
8
Jun-0
8
Nov
-08
Apr
-09
Sep
-09
Feb
-10
—.
Jul-
10—
oD
ec-1
00 2
May
-11
Oct
-Il
Mar
-12
IA
ug-1
2D
i
00
Dl
cJa
n-1
3—
C,
-I ftJu
n-1
3
Nov
-13
:A
pr-1
4
Sep
-14
-‘
Feb
-15
Jul-
15‘-
p
Dec
-15
-‘
May
-16
- w
Page 10
V.’
r1 I-,.
CD z 0 00 0 C “I I-
CD C D CD 3 •C I-,.
CD 00 1.
0 CD B 0 CD NI
ID DI
DI 0 -h 0 CD CD 5-fl
,m C V
.’ CD-
0 I Di 0 -I t-,.
Di
I-,.
“I
C,
“I
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan-0
9
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan-I
l
Jul-
Il
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan-1
3
Jul-
13
Jan-1
4
Jul-
14
Jan-1
5
Jul-
15
Jan
-16
Jul-
16
rD
[‘3
(34
(Q
—J
0
Un
emp
loy
men
tR
ate
(Per
cent)
(0—
Page 11
But Underutilization Stays HighDifference Labor Underulitization Rate (U6)
‘—Head1ine Unemp Rate (U3)
18
16
14
124-I
rnIuIilltDffiiIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIrIiiifltIil+Iaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
0000000000000000000000000000000000000
Source: Fed Res BankNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 11
Page 12
Job Recovery Uneven Across CountiesJob Patterns by Counties (indexed change, Dec. 2007=100%)
0ahu Hawaii Island —Maui —Kauai
110%
80%E
75%o 0 0 0 0 0 0
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
Source: DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 12
Page 13
Likewise for Unemployment Rate
12
1!
10
8
7
6:
5
4
3
2
1
Unemployment Rate by County(SeasonIly Adjusted)
o -fl) rfl r t L.fl Lfl tO tO F.. fl. CO 03 0) 0, 0 0 .—4 — fla n.j Fr) rr) In Lfl to to
I 0) 0) 0’ 0’ 0’ 0) 0’ 0’ 0 0 0) — — — — — — 7I -;
if ‘ 1 Chart by DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 13
—Hawaii County
Kauai Cou nty
Maui County
Honolulu County
Page 14
Job Growth HonoluluChange in Jobs from Same lVlonth in Prior Year
(Honolulu County, August 2016)
Nat. Resources, Mining, Constr.
Professional & Business Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Food Services & Drinking Places
Accommodation
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Educational Services
Federal
Financial Activities
Transp., Warehousing, Util.
Local
Other Services IRetail Trade I
Manufacturing PInformation I
Wholesale Trade
Government
State -.
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000
0 f,-.,tr,,.,,;, Lb., I
Chart by DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 14
Page 15
Job Growth Maui CountyChange in Jobs from Same Month in Prior Year
(Maui County, August 2016)
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Health Care & Social Assistance
State
Other Services
Food Services & Drinking Places
Professional & Business Services
Government
Transp., Warehousing, Util.
Financial Activities
Information
Man u fact u ring
Nat. Resources, Mining, Constr.
Federal
Educational Services
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Local
Accommodation
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800
Chart by DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 15
Page 16
Job Growth Hawaii IslandChange in Jobs from Same Month in Prior Year
(Hawaii County, August 2016)
Food Services & Drinking Places
Health Care & Social Assistance
State
Nat, Resources, Mining, Constr.
Government
A cc omm o dat on
Information
Educational Services
Transp., Warehousing, Util.
Manufacturing
Federal
Other Services
Professional & Business Services
Retail Trade -
\/Vholesale Trade
Local
Fin ancial Activities
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500
S
Chart by DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 16
Page 17
Job Growth KauaiChange in Jobs from Same Month in Prior Year
(Kauai County, August 2016)
Food Services & Drinking Places -
Health Care & Social Assistance
Nat. Resources, Mining, Constr.
StateGovernment
Accommodation
Other Services
Information
Local
Federal
Educational Services
Transp., Warehousing, Util.
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Wholesale Trade
Professional & Business Services
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800
Chart by DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 17
Page 18
Forecasts for Hawaii
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 18
Page 19
Council on Revenues GDP Forecast
Hawaii Real GOP Growth, 2005-20196
5
4
‘-3m
III
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 19
Page 20
Visitor Arrival ForecastDBEDT Forecasts (30 2016): Visitor Arriva’s
Visitor Arrivals (Air only)
_______________
9.5 18,.
15%9.0
12%
8.59%
8.0 6%
3%7.5
0%
7,0-3%
]. ii . .ii... - . ,,
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Visitor arrival (person) —-—-Annual growth rate )%)
a
Air only Total
annual annual
person growth person growth
l%l 1%)
2005 7,416,574 7.3% 7,494,236 7.2%
2006 7,528,105 1.5% 7,628,117 1.8%
2007 7,496,820 -0.4% 7,627,819 0.0%
2008 6,713,436 -10.4% 6,822,912 -10.6%
2009 6,420,448 -4.4% 6,517,054 -4.5%
2010 6,916,894 7.7% 7,018,133 7.7%
2011 7,174,398 3.7% 7,299,048 4.0%
2012 7,867,143 9.7% 8,028,742 10,0%
2013 8,003,474 1,7% 8,174,460 1.8%
2014 8,196,342 24% 8,320,785 1.8%
2015 8,563,018 4,5% 8,679,564 4,3%
2016 8,732,583 2 0’. 8.844,176 1 9
2017 8,885,4’t6 1.83u 8,997,040 1.7’,,
2018 9,044,986 1.8’. 9,156,579 1 8’.
2019 9,205,102 1.8% 9,316,696 1.7’
Chart by DBEDTNovember 4,, 201 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 20
Page 21
Visitor Spending ForecastDBEDT Forecasts (3Q 2016): Visitor Expenditure
Visitor Expenditure (Air only)
0
19,000
17,000 -15,000
13,000
11,000
9,000
7,000
5,000 .ii[i
18%
15’
12%
9%
6%
3%
0%
3%
-6%
-9%
12%
-15%
-19%
/
I2014‘ll
2016 2018
Air only Total
annual annual
$million growth $million growth
1%) (%)
2005 11,650 9.4% 11,904 9.6%
2006 12,243 5.1% 12,492 4.9%
2007 12,578 2.7% 12,811 2.6%
2008 11,182 -11.1% 11,398 -11.0%
2009 9,794 -12.4% 9,993 -12.3%
2010 10,867 10.9% 11,066 10.7%
2011 12,047 10.9% 12,180 10.1%
2012 14,193 17.8% 14,365 17.9%
2013 14,352 1.1% 14,521 1.1%
2014 14,809 3.2% 14,973 3.1%
2015 14,938 0.9% 15,111 0.9%
2016 15,420 ..2’ 15,598 3.2’,
2017 15,944 34% 16,124 3.3%
2018 16,610 4.2% 16,793 4,3%
2019 17,298 .1 1% 17,484 4.1%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Vinitor expenditure —Annual growth rate (%)
Chart by DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 21
Page 22
COR Visitor ForecastHawaii Visitor Arrivals and Expenditures, 2005-2019
I Visitor arrivals by air ‘Visitor expenditures I20.00%
15.00%
4::::H-15.00%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 22
Page 23
COR Construction ForecastHawaii Construction Completed, 2005-2019
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%>-
5.0% I0.0% i:JrIT.nv I
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 23
Page 24
COR TPI ForecastHawaii Real Personal Income, 2005-2019
5.0%
4.0%
>-52.0%0 I
-1.0%
-2.0%05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 24
Page 25
Long-range Job Forecast
Figure 1-3. Average Annual Growth of Total Civilian Jobs for the State
5%
4%
3% Actual Projected
2°
_
fin J1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035-
75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Chart by DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 25
Page 26
Long-range Income Forecast
Figure 1-2 Average Annual Growth of Real Personal Iticome for the State
1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035-75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Chart by DBEDT
5%
-r
3%
Actual Projected
1%
0%nm
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 26
Page 27
.Features of Hawaii sLabor Market
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 27
Page 28
Our “Thin” Labor MarketLabor Force In Selected Markets, 2015
, 10
LA Area SF&SouthBay Seattle Area Portland Hawaii
Source: US BLSNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 28
Page 29
__
__
__
_N
orth
Dak
ota
Iow
ar
Sou
thD
akot
aN
ebra
ska
CK
ansa
sIn
dian
aI
Wyo
min
gW
est
Vir
gini
at3
0M
innes
ota
•-
CDZ
Ohi
oM
isso
uri
(I)
Okl
ahom
aD
Ark
ansa
sK
entu
cky
-0
0
Alask
a
________________________
(0
Dis
tric
tof
Col
umbi
a-
0
Uta
hI
__
__
__
__
__
5M
ichi
gan
Idah
oa’
-.
-D
OT
exas
CDi.n
Wis
cons
in
oV
irgi
nia
°IV
Col
orad
oL
LJJ
oP
enns
ylza
nia
CL
I!
Ala
bam
a0
Lou
isia
na-
CD0
0N
orth
Car
olin
a0
Ten
nes
see
Ari
zona
Sou
thC
arol
inaj
0G
eorg
ia(0
-<M
aryl
and
D
Del
awar
e
Mh
dsd
pp
i
_______________
5N
ewH
amps
hire
a,W
a51i
irrg
ton
-
itM
aine
Illin
ois
30
Nev
ada
Oregon
-
__________________________________
Mas
sach
use
tts
00
New
Mex
ico
00
Con
nect
icut
-
CD0
Ver
mon
tR
hodel
slan
dN
ewY
ork
Flo
rida
-
New
iers
eyl
w
w.A
1fI
JL,_=
-__5
mC
—I
9
Page 30
i-I’_
iCM
ijI
m
Nor
thD
akot
a—
.So
uth
Dak
ota
Wyo
min
gN
ebra
ska
Iow
aO
5K
ansa
srTh
Uta
h(5
-
Okl
ahom
aW
est
Vir
gini
a—
0A
rkan
sas
-
Idah
oM
onta
naC
,
Wis
cons
in-
-M
inne
sota
_t.
,II
v-i
-
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
_
0)
IDM
isso
uri
-oc
t0
Mas
sach
uset
tsCD
ij
>N
ewH
amps
hire
-
Ohi
o—
C,
Tex
asEi•
(VW
ashi
ngto
n‘—
C-Z
Del
awar
e)A
lask
a—
oN
evad
aCD
Li.)
Vir
gin
iai_
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
_-
u(“D
Ken
tuck
y!
‘
Indi
ana
-
I—(
5A
rizo
na-
—Ii
Col
orad
o()
3:
Dis
tric
tof
Col
umbi
a-
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
-0
•0M
aine
—.
C3
i-Ill
inoi
sCD
-N
orth
Car
olin
aR
hodeM
and
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
_
New
Mex
ico
—LI
)
Ver
mon
t-
-—
Penn
sylv
ania
0)T
enne
ssee
•-
8M
issi
ssip
piSo
uth
Car
olin
a-
Oeo
rgia
-
Ala
bam
aID
New
iers
ey—
0M
ichi
gan
-
Con
nect
icut
—
-.1
Lou
isia
naI
New
Yor
k.O
rego
n<
Cal
ifor
nia
I-—
J
Haw
aii-:--------
bFl
orid
a
C3 1._
C03
CM ID05
1 (0
Page 31
aIn
dex
(U.S
.=10
0)
0
-‘
Mis
siss
ippi
-
___________
—I
-A
rkan
sas
So
uth
Dak
ota
IA
laba
ma
-
oW
est
Vir
gini
aK
entu
cky
(5
________________
Mis
sour
i-
CO
hio
9O
klah
oma
Iow
aN
ebra
ska
Sout
hC
arol
ina
3T
enne
ssee
Kan
sas
Lou
isia
naKD
Indi
ana
-N
orth
Dak
ota
—.
Nor
thC
arol
ina
____
____
____
_
0
—.
Wis
cons
in-
oM
ichi
gan
—‘
Mon
tana
Vs
flN
ewM
etic
oII
(DW
yom
ing
:I.
a-
(5T
exas
00)
Ari
zona
-0
tU
tah
Min
neso
ta-
(DM
aine
3It
hode
Isla
nd
______________________________
Nev
ada
Penn
sylv
ania
0O
rego
n
____
____
____
____
____
____
____
____
_
CFl
orid
aV
erm
ont
-
—Ill
inoi
sD
elaw
are
Col
orad
oV
irgin
ia-
Was
hing
ton
-
New
Ham
pshi
reI
Ala
ska
I
Mas
sach
uset
tsC
onne
ctic
ut1
4i
Mar
ylan
dC
alif
orni
a-
New
Jers
ey
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
__
—
mH
aw
au’
Dis
tric
tof
Col5
la-I
-
I-
w
Page 32
1 I-,.
0 ci
m ci -1
Mis
siss
ippi
Idah
oS
outh
Dak
ota
Mon
tana
-
Ark
ansa
sM
aine
Sou
thC
arol
ina
-
Neb
rask
a
-
Wes
tV
irgi
nia
New
Mex
ico
Ken
tuck
y-
Iow
aIn
dian
a)
Kan
sas
Uta
hV
erm
ont
Ala
bam
aO
klah
oma
-
Wis
cons
inM
isso
uri
—
Nev
ada
Flor
ida
-.
Nor
thC
arol
ina
Ten
ness
ee—
—
Haw
aii
Lou
isia
na-
Ohi
oW
yom
ing
-
Ore
gon
--
Ari
zona
Geo
rgia
Mic
higa
nR
hode
Isla
ndP
enns
ylva
nia
Nor
thD
akot
aN
ewH
ampsh
ire
-
Min
nes
ota
—
Col
orad
oV
irgi
nia
Del
awar
eT
exas
Ala
ska
Illi
nois
——
—I
Was
hin
gto
n—
—M
aryl
and.
)j_
—C
alif
orni
a—
——
New
lers
ey.—
——
Con
nect
icut
-—
—M
assa
chus
etts
New
Yor
k—
.—
.
Dis
tric
tof
Col
umbi
a-
—-
(DI-
i.-‘
oJ
rQ
(D
Z
Q-.
CD ..<
nCD
*(0.
Id-i
0
-iJ —
sJ
uci
pci
ci
bci
bb
cis
ci
ci
ci
ci
ci
ci
ci
ci
ci
-sa-(
is-is
j-s
is
—cn
-ci
ci
ci
ci
DC
)p
pi
ci
ci
ci
ci
CC
-C
ci
ci
Cci
Cci
ci
ci
ci
ci
a0
rD 0 rs
Sn
r’.J
- tOI— 0-
I
55)
C 0 r ci 0 Sn
0) 0)ti (T
i0
as- O
, C(T
i(T
i
rD- -c
i
o-<
-D
00
—‘-
I0
O c 0 0. —(S
Q
U —U
b-i
Ui
-
Ui
(D0
-I-’ rn
Ui
r-J
Page 33
Rewards for Education?Earnings in Hawaii Versus US
0Cl
40,000
L1.I 30,000C
20,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
j US •Hawaii
10,000
0 I I I IPopulation 25 Less than high High school Some college
years and over school graduate graduate or associat&swith earnings (includes degree
equivalency)
Bachelorsdegree
Graduate orprofessional
degree
Source: U.S. Census Bureau,2014, American Community
Survey 33November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council
Page 34
Hawaii’s Aging PopulationHawaii Population Distribution, 2015 - 2025
65+
55-64
_45-542025
‘ 35-44 2015
<2534Dependency ratio:
15-24
0-14
- 5 10 15 20 25
Percent of Total Population
Author’s calculations usingNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council DBEDT data
Page 35
Labor Force Participation DeclineFigure 2-3, Projection of Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Group (BLS)
90
SO 25to34
70 - Total
60
____
50 55 to 64 16 to 24
40
‘o :65to74 —
75 and over0 rr-’r”--—r----r •‘r’-rrr’-r rr
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Chart by DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 35
Page 36
Concerns
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 36
Page 37
External Risk Factors
Labor market shiftsu Role of technology/education
i Income inequality
Anti-globalization1i Disillusion with free trade
i Resistance to migration
Brexit
Political uncertaintiesDeclining role of US
i Political hotspots
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 37
Page 38
Internal Risk factors
Insular mentalityFocus on self-sufficiency
i “Brain drain” or “brain gain”?
Uncertainty about Hawaiian sovereigntyi TMT and other issues
Debt and unfunded liabilities
Deciding who we want to bei Singapore or Molokai?
i Are they mutually exclusive?
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workiorce Development Council 38
Page 39
Unfunded Liabilities: HawaiianStyle
Unfunded liabilities are future debts.
Public employee retirement benefits:$8.2 billion in total ($5,236 per Hawaiiresident)
i Public employee retiree health benefits:
$13.6 billion in total ($9,973 per Hawaiiresident)
Source: KaLbert Young, Dir. of B&F, “Overview of theState’s General Fund FiscaL Condition”, Dec. 2012
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 39
Page 40
Lessons for Labor Market
Uphill battle to expand our jobopportunities
To succeed we need to find niches...i ...but which niches?
Need policies that
i Are pro-jobsU Encourage, embrace, and reward change
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 40
Page 41
Thanks. Questions?
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 41
Page 42
Extra slides
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 42
Page 43
CM
issi
ssip
pi—
—
Ala
ska
-W
est
Vir
gnia
Ark
ansa
souis
iana
—
Haw
aii
AIam
aM
onta
nai
Sou
thD
akot
aK
entu
cky
isO
klah
oma
3N
orth
Dak
ota
-
Mai
neT
ennes
see
0
___
Sou
thC
arol
rna
-
mN
ebra
ska
1)N
ewM
exic
o-
Wyo
min
gM
isso
uri
Flo
rida
tD—
.
Dis
tric
tO
fC
olum
bia
Vir
gini
aII
Maran
d_
__
__
__
_Io
wa
0N
evad
a—In
dian
a°-
Pen
nsyl
vani
a—
Kan
sas
oV
Nor
thC
arol
ina
3fl
Ohio
Tex
as—
Ari
zona
Rho
deIs
land
—.
Illin
ois
-
Wis
cons
in•
New
Yor
kD
elaw
are
-o
Uta
hM
ichi
gan
New
Jers
eyId
aho
Col
orad
o-
Con
nect
icut
New
Ham
pshi
re
____________________
Ore
go
n)
wM
inne
sota
Ver
mon
t-
Was
hing
ton
rTI
Mas
sach
uset
ts-
Cal
ifor
nia
-
-1
-0)
0<
Di
Ott
w(5
,
Page 44
Hawaii Job Growth by SectorLeisureand Hospitality
Professional & Business Services
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Education & Health Services
Construction
_________
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Other Services
Government
(2,000) 2,000 6,000 10,000 14,000
Jobs Added 201 0-2015
Source: DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 44
Page 45
Hawaii Personal Income
$50,000
$45,000
$40,000Cz $35,000
g $30,000
$25,000
$20,000
•- $15,000
$10,000
D $5,000
Per Capita Personal Income, US and Hawaii
Source: US Bureau ofHawaii Workforce Developmentc0conomic Analysis
I United States =Hawaii
November 4, 2016 45
Page 46
State Government Revenues GrowState General Fund Revenue Growth, 2006-16, change from prior year (%)
40
20
1:
- Cl - Cl - Cl - Cl - Cl - Cl - Cl - Cl Cl . Cl -
aaaaaoaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaI I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
CD CD F 1- 0) 0) 0 0 - . C1 C’1 Cl Cl If) U CD0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - ‘ ‘ - - - v t000000000000000000000
Source: Hawaii State Department of TaxationNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 46
Page 47
Likewise for Counties—Maui Hawaii Kauai Honolulu (Right Axis) I
$300 $1,200
$250 $1,000
.$200 $500
$150 $600
::: _—‘‘“i :;::
4’ 4çco \ çb 4ç(14
‘c_Is-Is ‘c-Is <Is <Is <Is
Sources: County annual financial reportsHawaii Workforce Development CouncilNovember 4, 2016 47
Page 48
Real Estate Prices Slow Recovery
120%
Oahu Haw IsI Maui Kauai
100%
w00
ii0
4-’
C)C.)
40%
20%
0%
Honolulu Board of Realtors
YTD2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 2016
Sources: Hawaii Info Serv, Realtor Assoc Maui,
November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 48
Page 49
z 0 CD 0 CD
Jan
-0
Jul-
07
Jan
-0
Jul-
08
Jan
-0
Jul-
09
Jan
-I
Jul-
10
Jan
-I
Jul-
Il
Jan-I
Jul-
12
Jan-I
Jul-
13
Jan
-I
Jul-
14
Jan-I
Jul-
15
0
Jan-I
P1 -I
C,,
rM CM
Cl)
CD CD 0 z C-)
0 0 -‘ C C, o• C 0 C’,
Pri
vat
eB
uild
ing
Per
mit
s,3-
mo.
Mov
IDA
vg($
mu)
Page 50
Completed Construction GrowsStatewide Construction General Excise Tax Base
40
30I
20
110
C,
C
Ua)a--
-30
cd d ‘V ‘V b’ q, o’ Oj’ ‘ c’ ‘ ,‘ ‘ o’
Source: Hawaii State Department of TaxationHawaii Workforce Development Council
i.miI.11
November 4, 2016 50